Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Tuesday morning: CPI came in hot on both lines, a December hike went from “above 80%” to fully priced with 50bp now at ≈15%, the 10-year traded through 5%, and V023 closed on its RBA stop.

CPI ended the hold debate and started the 50bp one. October CPI rose 0.4% m/m against 0.3% expected and core 0.3% against 0.2%, the third straight 0.3% core; shelter (+0.3%) was over 30% of the increase, energy +0.7%, food +0.5%, and used cars (−1.2%) kept core from printing higher (BLS; verified). Waller had said before the print that 50bp “should be considered” if core ran at about 0.3%; Logan wants “at least two more” hikes (single source). CME moved to 84.7% for +25bp and 15.3% for +50bp, from 1.1% on 50bp before the print, with a hold at zero (KuCoin/BlockBeats, Yahoo; corroborated, intraday); Kalshi and Polymarket price +25bp at 85–85.5% at 16:02 ET (DeFiRate). PPI on Saturday 00:30 AEDT and the FOMC minutes on 19 November now decide the size, not the direction.
The front end took 18bp and the 10-year went through 5% into a holiday. The 2-year rose ≈18bp to ≈4.73% and the 10-year ≈13bp to ≈4.99% by 15:27 ET after trading 5.01–5.02% at midday; the 30-year ≈5.35% (Investing.com, TE; vendor, corroborated). The $42bn 10-year cleared at 5.020% with a 2.46 cover against a 2.54–2.60 average (RTTNews, Helious; corroborated); the tail is disputed and indirects were 61.2% against a 76.7% average (single source). This lands on a leveraged-fund Treasury short of 7.25m contracts (CFTC TFF, 3 Nov; verified). The bond market is shut today, so the 30-year at 05:00 Friday AEDT is the next test. The regime is re-confirmed rather than challenged: par was 4.88% on Monday.
Wall Street cut its losses to −0.4%, with Nvidia −5.5% and CoreWeave +7% after hours. The S&P 500 closed −0.38% at 7,520.93, the Nasdaq −0.74% at 25,065.88, the Dow −0.30% at 52,231.89 and the Russell −0.60% (Yahoo after the close, tying to AP’s Monday closes; TipRanks percentages; corroborated) — at 13:29 ET the S&P had been −0.9% and the Nasdaq −1.4% (AP). Nvidia fell 5.47% to $168.89 as the Huang inquiry moved to Wachtell Lipton and, per the NYT, the Justice Department; Reuters puts the two-session loss above $470bn. After the bell CoreWeave reported revenue of $3.66bn (+168% y/y, against ≈$3.55bn) and raised FY revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3bn; shares rose more than 7% (Reuters; corroborated). VIX 19.50 (single source). The Nasdaq-100 close was not obtained, so V031 is unmarked today.
Brent broke $90 intraday and settled above it. Brent January settled $91.49 (−$1.08) and WTI December $86.04 (−$0.81), both the lowest since 31 August for a second day, after Brent traded $89.70 early (Reuters via Investing.com; oilprice.com). Monday’s settles are now found: $92.57 and $86.85 (Nation Thailand; corroborated). Trump says the war is “militarily effectively over” and new strikes are “quite unlikely”, while the blockade stays; Iran repeats a two-day Hormuz reopening if the war ends on all fronts and assets are unfrozen (AFP). hormuz.now counts 7.0 transits a day over the week to 9 November, ≈8% of the pre-war baseline. V024’s band ($81.51–84.51) is $7 below.
V023 closed on its stop: AUD/NZD 1.2281 on the RBA table. The second consecutive RBA-table close below 1.2400 (after 1.2328 on Monday) fires the 29 October pre-commitment, which scores the stop RIGHT; the exit is 34 pips below the ≈1.2315 entry, which No. 046 understated (§08). The RBA struck AUD/USD at 0.6924 (+0.44%) before CPI; New York took it to ≈0.6863 and ABC shows 68.63 US cents (TE, ABC). The ASX rose 1.1% to 9,129.0, its highest close in more than two months, on industrials, tech and real estate; ASX 200 futures were −0.5% at 9,036 at 07:00 AEDT (ABC), which points to a fade of most of Tuesday’s gain. Westpac sentiment fell to 78.2, a four-year low, and NAB confidence to −15. The ABS has October Labour Force on Thursday 19 November, not 24 November as No. 046 said.
Asia bought the US chip bounce before CPI; the cross-asset tape sold after it. The KOSPI rose 4.39% to 5,239.13 with foreign buying, the Nikkei 2.87% to 60,459.58 and TOPIX 1.98% (all tie exactly to Monday); China’s October imports rose 41.6% y/y against 32% expected, leaving a $105.3bn surplus against $125.8bn (corroborated). After the print gold fell 2.6% to $4,032.40 (Kitco 15:26 ET; verified), silver ≈4%, and bitcoin fell to $72,787, its lowest since 20 August, before ≈$73,600 (Bitcoin.com, CoinGecko). DXY ≈102.26 and USD/JPY ≈158.8 (TE; untimed). Credit was firm going in: FRED IG 91bp and CCC 1,311bp on 9 November (verified); V017 waits for the post-CPI rows.

Overnight recap

Event edition: the US print leads; Asia and Europe, which traded before it, follow.

US CPI and the New York session, Tuesday 10 November

Futures were lower before the print and fell further on it: at 09:06 ET the 2-year was 4.687% (+14bp), the 10-year 4.934% (+7bp), EUR/USD 1.1187 and gold $4,051.50 (investingLive; single source). The cash open had the S&P −0.74% and the Nasdaq −1.05% (TheStreet). A brief rebound around 10:20 ET took the Nasdaq-100 back to flat (investingLive) before selling resumed; at 11:41 ET the S&P was −0.79% at ≈7,490 with a 7,470.43 low, energy the only gaining sector and materials and tech the worst (Motley Fool). By 13:29 ET the S&P was −0.9%, the Dow −319 points and the Nasdaq −1.4%, with GE Vernova −7%, Lennar −4.4%, D.R. Horton −3.6% and Micron −3.6% (AP). The $42bn 10-year at 13:00 ET cleared at 5.020% with a 2.46 cover (corroborated). Losses then roughly halved into the close: S&P −29.01 to 7,520.93, Dow −157.86 to 52,231.89, Nasdaq −187.26 to 25,065.88, Russell −17.05 to 2,823.76 (Yahoo; each ties to AP’s Monday close; TipRanks agrees on the percentages). Nvidia closed −5.47% at $168.89; Microsoft −2.2% and Oracle −1.5% (TE; single source); TipRanks lists Charter, Global Payments, Broadcom, UnitedHealth and Amazon among the best performers. Take-Two rose ≈6% on results and Hims & Hers fell as much as 15% on its Q4 outlook (intraday reads; closes not obtained). After the close, CoreWeave beat on revenue ($3.66bn), lost $1.27 a share (consensus figures conflict), raised FY revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3bn, disclosed ≈$4.2bn of convertibles and an ATM programme for up to 35m shares, and rose more than 7% (Reuters, TipRanks, investingLive; financing detail single source). Late New York: DXY ≈102.26, EUR/USD ≈1.1162, USD/JPY ≈158.80, AUD/USD ≈0.6863 (TE; untimed). Brent settled $91.49 and gold traded $4,032.40 at 15:26 ET.

Asia and Australia, Tuesday 10 November

Asia traded Monday’s US semiconductor rally (SOX ≈+7%) and the fall in oil. The Nikkei 225 rose 2.87% to 60,459.58 on SoftBank (+13.9%) and the chip chain, the KOSPI 4.39% to 5,239.13 with a buy-side sidecar, and the TAIEX ≈2.5% (CFD-derived). China’s October exports rose 35.2% and imports 41.6%; Shanghai +0.08% and the Hang Seng ≈+0.4%; the PBoC fixed 6.7167. India was closed. The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions leaned towards a December hike. In Australia, Westpac sentiment fell to 78.2 and NAB confidence to −15, and the ASX 200 still rose 1.1% to 9,129.0 with Monadelphous +15.3% and Qantas ≈+6%. The RBA table struck AUD/NZD at 1.2281, closing V023, and AUD/USD at 0.6924.

Europe

Morning gains on Trump’s “effectively over” comment faded after the US print. The Stoxx 600 closed +0.27% at 658.32, the DAX +0.31% at 26,347.45 after an intraday record, the CAC +0.6% at a two-month high and the FTSE 100 −0.29% on miners and Shell (HL/Sharecast). Infineon and Henkel rose on results; Stellantis and Siemens Energy fell. Bunds sold off ≈4bp and BTPs ≈7bp; gilts ≈7bp (TE). Lane made the ECB’s most explicit case yet for a December hike. In the Gulf, Houthi missiles fired at Riyadh were intercepted after an attack on Aramco’s East–West pipeline (Al Jazeera; verified), and US–Russia–Ukraine talks opened in Abu Dhabi with Witkoff and Kushner (Al Jazeera; verified).

Market dashboard

Tuesday 10 November closes unless marked; 1d is Tuesday’s session against Monday’s close.

Week to date: change since Friday 6 November

Percent change from Friday’s close to Tuesday’s. US indices against Friday’s AP closes; Brent and WTI are Tuesday’s settles against Friday’s; AUD rows are the RBA 4pm table; FX as the pair moved; gold is Kitco spot. Hover a bar for the exact value.

Up since FridayDown since Friday

Equities	Close	1d	Ref.	Note
S&P 500	7,520.93	−0.38%	7,549.94 (AP)	Yahoo post-close bar; −29.01 ties to AP Monday; TipRanks −0.38% (corroborated). Low 7,470.43. AP Tuesday not posted
Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp.	52,231.89 · 25,065.88	−0.30% · −0.74%	52,389.75 · 25,253.14	Corroborated as above. TE’s text gives Nasdaq −0.6% (not used)
Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100	2,823.76 · —	−0.60% · —	2,840.81 · 27,907.63	Russell Yahoo, ties to AP (single source). NDX close not obtained: V031 unmarked
VIX · SOX	19.50 · —	−2.1% · —	19.92	VIX Yahoo (single source); Monday 19.92 (thetrading.tools). SOX not obtained
Nvidia	$168.89	−5.47%	$178.67	Reuters via MarketScreener, Fool (corroborated). Huang inquiry to outside counsel; >$470bn lost in two sessions
Stoxx 600 · DAX	658.32 · 26,347.45	+0.27% · +0.31%	656.52 · ≈26,266	HL/Sharecast (both tie to Monday). DAX intraday record 26,634 (TE; single source)
CAC 40 · FTSE 100 · FTSE MIB	8,278.59 · 10,751.59 · ≈51,644	+0.6% · −0.29% · +0.47%	≈8,236 · 10,782.87 (implied) · ≈51,400	HL (CAC, FTSE); MIB TE. CAC and FTSE priors conflict with No. 046 (§13). IBEX, SMI not obtained
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	60,459.58 · 3,893.71	+2.87% · +1.98%	58,775.50 · 3,818.16	Both tie exactly to Monday (globalnewstop). Back above 60,000
Shanghai · CSI 300	3,663.72 · 4,059.11	+0.08% · +0.07%	3,660.79 · 4,056.11	TE (both tie)
Hang Seng · HS Tech	≈24,557 · —	≈+0.4% · —	≈24,449	TE (+108.09; decimals not obtained)
KOSPI · TAIEX	5,239.13 · ≈42,712	+4.39% · ≈+2.52%	5,018.85 · 41,661.70	KOSPI ties exactly (Korea JoongAng Daily). TAIEX derived from TE CFD (unverified close)
Sensex · Nifty 50	81,106.65 · 25,044.65	closed		India shut Tuesday (Diwali-Balipratipada; TE, single source); Monday’s closes stand
S&P/ASX 200	9,129.0	+1.10%	9,029.7	ABC, TE (corroborated; ties to +99.3). Highest close in more than two months. Futures −0.5% at 9,036 at 07:00 AEDT (ABC)

Rates & credit	Level	1d	Ref.	Note
Official par 2y · 5y · 10y · 30y (Mon 9 Nov)	4.56 · 4.67 · 4.88 · 5.26%	+5 · +3 · +2 · 0bp	4.51 · 4.64 · 4.86 · 5.26 (6 Nov)	Verified (Treasury). 10 Nov row posts ≈10:00 AEDT; no row for 11 Nov (Veterans Day)
UST vendor 2y · 10y · 30y (Tue)	≈4.73 · ≈4.99 · ≈5.35%	≈+18 · ≈+13 · ≈+9bp	vendor Mon ≈4.55 · ≈4.86 · ≈5.26	Investing.com 15:19–15:27 ET; TE 4.74 / 4.99 / 5.35 (corroborated levels; vendors’ own changes, never against par). Intraday 10-year high ≈5.02%
10-year auction ($42bn)	5.020%	tail disputed	WI 5.010% (one source)	Cover 2.46× (prior 2.77, avg 2.60) — corroborated. Indirects 61.2% (avg 76.7), directs 29.0%, dealers 9.8% (Helious; single source)
Gilt 10y · 30y	≈5.21 · ≈5.64%	≈+7 · —bp	≈5.14	TE (single source)
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	≈3.31 · ≈4.79 · ≈4.38%	≈+4 · ≈+4 · ≈+7bp	≈3.27 · ≈4.745 · ≈4.31	TE (single source). BTP–Bund ≈107bp (derived)
OAT–Bund (dedicated series)	152.9bp (9 Nov)	−1.0bp	153.9 (6 Nov) · 148.2 (5 Nov)	Verified (ideal-investisseur). 10 Nov row not yet posted; TE-derived 148.0bp is a different basis. V025 marked
JGB 10y · 30y	≈2.70 · ≈3.88%	≈+2 · ≈+3bp	≈2.67 · ≈3.85	TE (single source)
ACGB 3y · 10y (Sydney close)	≈4.70 · ≈5.00%	≈−2 · ≈−2bp	≈4.72 · ≈5.02	TE, ABC. 10-year below 5% for the first time in nearly three months; post-CPI mark ≈5.05% (unverified)
Canada 10y	≈3.72%	≈+6bp	≈3.66	TE Bund-page table (Canada page stale). Canada bond market status today not confirmed
US HY OAS	342bp (6 Nov)	−6bp	348 (5 Nov)	Verified (ALFRED). The missing 6 Nov row has posted; 9 Nov not yet
US IG · CCC OAS	91 · 1,311bp (9 Nov)	−2 · −6bp	93 · 1,317 (6 Nov)	Verified (FRED/ALFRED). Pre-CPI

FX	Tue	1d	Ref.	Note
DXY	≈102.26	≈+0.4%	≈101.85	TE (untimed; page also shows 102.23). Change vs No. 046’s late-NY level; TE states +0.6% on its own base
EUR/USD · GBP/USD	≈1.1162 · ≈1.3343	≈−0.25% · ≈−0.57%	≈1.1190 · ≈1.3419	TE (single source, untimed)
USD/JPY	≈158.80	≈+0.56%	≈157.91	TE. 160 is the zone to watch into the BoJ
AUD/USD · NZD/USD (NY)	≈0.6863 · ≈0.5601	≈−0.49% · ≈+0.1%	≈0.6897 · ≈0.5595	TE; ABC 68.63c. NY basis — never blended with the RBA table
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · USD/MXN	≈1.4186 · ≈0.8253 · ≈18.63	≈+0.57 · ≈+0.73 · ≈−0.1%	≈1.4105 · ≈0.8193 · ≈18.65	TE (single source)
AUD/USD (RBA 4pm)	0.6924	+0.44%	0.6894 (RBA)	Verified (RBA). Struck before CPI; New York basis in the next row, never blended
AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm)	1.2281	−0.38%	1.2328 (RBA)	Verified. Second close below 1.2400: V023 closed (§08). AUD/JPY 109.38, TWI 64.1
USD/CNY · fix	≈6.6774 · 6.7167	≈+0.1%	6.7188 (fix)	Fix FXStreet headline; Reuters estimate not found. FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	Ref.	Note
Brent JANUARY (front)	$91.49	−1.17%	$92.57 (9 Nov)	Settles (Reuters via Investing.com; Monday Nation Thailand; changes tie — corroborated). Low $89.70, first sub-$90 since August
WTI DECEMBER	$86.04	−0.93%	$86.85 (9 Nov)	As above. Lowest settles since 31 August for a second day
Gold (spot) · silver · platinum	$4,032.40 · ≈$51.2 · ≈$1,537	−2.6% · ≈−4.1% · ≈−1.6%	≈$4,139.40	Kitco bid 15:26 ET (verified); no 16:00 print. Silver, platinum TE
Bitcoin	$73,632	≈−1.7%	$74,884 (No. 046)	CoinGecko ≈21:03 UTC. Low $72,787 (Bitstamp), lowest since 20 Aug. ≈$632m liquidated in 24h (single source)
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,052 · $83.19 · $1.06 · $674	≈−3.6 · −4.0 · −2.8 · −2.3%	vs No. 046	CoinGecko (changes derived). Total cap ≈$2.52tn, BTC dominance ≈58.6% (19:20 UTC)
Spot ETF flows (Mon 9 Nov)	BTC −$201m · ETH −$184.6m	Tue not published	week to 6 Nov −$1.28bn	Single source (LePrivateBanker); Farside unreadable
Henry Hub · TTF	≈$3.26–3.30 · ≈€85.2	≈+1% · ≈+3.2%	— · €82.50	Buckhead 19:07 UTC, TE (corroborated HH). Four-week high on cold forecasts and record LNG feedgas. EU storage below 73%
Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX	$13,955 · $13,780 (6 Nov) · ≈$6.21/lb	— · — · ≈−1.8%		Westmetall still on 6 Nov (9–10 Nov rows absent). COMEX TE
Iron ore 62% · aluminium	$93.05 · ≈$3,014	≈+0.1% · ≈−1.9%	$92.71 (9 Nov)	Iron ore ABC 12:45 AEDT, TE (corroborated). Aluminium TE (LME-linked)
Lithium carb. · uranium	CNY91,250 · $91.40 (9 Nov)	−1.35% · −0.5%		TE. Lithium −21% m/m, near a one-year low

Conventions: 1d is Tuesday 10 November against Monday 9 November. US cash closes are Yahoo’s quote bar after the close, each tying exactly to Monday’s AP close and agreeing with TipRanks’ percentages (corroborated); the AP tabulation for Tuesday had not posted; Monday’s priors are the AP tabulation. The official par curve is the Treasury mark and is never mixed with vendor yields. FX is late New York (TE, untimed) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two are never blended. Trading Economics change columns are not used; changes are recomputed from levels. “≈” marks a vendor, intraday, CFD-based or derived level; “—” means not obtained.

What is driving markets

The four running themes, updated. CPI moved theme 3 decisively; Nvidia and CoreWeave pulled theme 1 and theme 4 in opposite directions on the same evening; oil held its lows.

1. The midterm verdict turns into an AI-capex verdict

Tuesday split the theme in two. Nvidia fell 5.47% to $168.89, more than 30% below its October high, as the board’s inquiry into Huang widened — outside counsel hired, an FBI reference from Trump, and the NYT reporting a move from Commerce to Justice — taking the two-session loss above $470bn (Reuters, Motley Fool; corroborated). The rest of the chain had been bought hard in Asia on Monday’s SOX rally: SK hynix +6.7%, Samsung +4.7%, Tokyo Electron and Advantest +5–6% (single sources). After the bell, CoreWeave — the most levered build-out name — beat on revenue ($3.66bn against ≈$3.55bn), raised FY revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3bn and an exit run-rate to $20–21bn (single source), and rose more than 7%. Read here as a market that separates the governance problem at the index’s largest weight from the demand data, which keep beating (house reading). Anthropic’s reported IPO, pricing around 18 November at a valuation above $1tn, adds a large supply event to the same week as Nvidia’s results (WSJ via Yahoo, AP; reported, terms unverified).

So whatNvidia’s results (call 09:00 AEDT Wednesday 18 November) now carry a governance question that guidance cannot answer, while the build-out’s cost of capital keeps rising (theme 4). V031 is the hedge for exactly this split and stays on its written conditions; it is unmarked today because no Nasdaq-100 close was obtained. Cisco and Applied Materials report Friday 08:30 AEDT.

2. Oil is pricing the politics of the war, not its physical flows

The diplomacy kept the price down for a second day. Brent January settled $91.49 after a $89.70 low, its first trade below $90 since August, and WTI $86.04 (Reuters via Investing.com, oilprice.com); Brent is ≈22% below its $118 high of 30 October (Reuters via Yahoo). Trump told reporters the war is “militarily effectively over” after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, but the naval blockade stays and Task Force Iron Gate aims to cut Iran’s land and Caspian trade (Al Jazeera; verified). Iran’s terms for a two-day reopening are an end to the war on all fronts, unfrozen assets, lifted oil sanctions and an end to the counter-blockade (AFP). The reported Qatari plan — Hormuz reopened, the blockade lifted, ≈$8bn released, the nuclear file excluded — rests on Israeli-media sourcing and is said to be opposed by Bessent, Lutnick, Rubio and Hegseth (oilprice.com; unverified). The physical picture has not changed: hormuz.now counts 49 AIS transits in the week to 9 November, 7.0 a day and ≈8% of the pre-war 84.8, with IMF PortWatch at 1.0 a day so far in November; UKMTO counted at least 11 ships attacked in the week to 6 November; Houthi missiles were fired at Riyadh on Tuesday (single sources except Al Jazeera).

So whatFutures are trading the headline and the counts are trading the war; Eurasia Group’s view that Brent cannot hold below $90 without a durable deal is the right frame for the near term (single source). The regime’s oil leg touched $90 intraday and did not settle there, on the same day the rates leg moved further from its test. V024’s conditions are unchanged; no new oil view is opened.

3. The term-premium regime is under test from the front, not the long end

CPI answered the question this theme posed on Tuesday. With core at 0.3% for a third month, the 2-year rose ≈18bp to ≈4.73% and the 10-year ≈13bp to ≈4.99%, a bear flattening of ≈5bp in 2s10s (vendor; derived), and the 10-year auction tested demand at 5.020% with a 2.46 cover (corroborated) and indirects well below average (single source). Pricing went from a hike to its size: CME 15.3% on 50bp from 1.1%. The 30-year rose less (≈+9bp to ≈5.35%), so the long end is no longer leading; the front end is, and the regime is being confirmed from the Fed side rather than the term-premium side. The positioning is the risk in both directions: leveraged funds were short 7.25m Treasury contracts on 3 November, with the 5-year the largest leg at −2.32m, against asset-manager longs of 4.47m 5-years and 3.73m 10-years (CFTC TFF; verified) — consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure.

So whatTwo prints decide whether the 10-year holds 5%: PPI (Saturday 00:30 AEDT) and the 30-year auction (Friday 05:00 AEDT), with no Treasury trading today. The regime change test is now further away: it needs official par below 4.85% and a Brent settle under $90 on the same day. No duration view is opened into PPI.

4. AI-capex financing: the bond market keeps writing the cheques

CoreWeave’s quarter answered the demand question and restated the financing one. Alongside the beat it disclosed ≈$4.2bn of convertible notes, an at-the-market programme for up to 35m Class A shares, ≈$9bn of customer prepayments expected over three months, Q3 capex of $14.5bn and a FY capex range of $37–39bn (TipRanks, 247wallst, investingLive; single sources each). Reuters puts its debt above $50bn as of June, its 2030 bonds at ≈15.2% and five-year CDS at ≈1,135bp (single source). In the index data the pre-CPI rows were firm: FRED IG 91bp and CCC 1,311bp on 9 November, and the missing 6 November HY row posted at 342bp (FRED/ALFRED; verified). The “≈$40bn IG this week” estimate carried in No. 046 is withdrawn: it matches a Bloomberg item from November 2025.

So whatA beat financed with more equity and convertibles is still dilution-funded growth at a high cost of capital, now with a 5% 10-year underneath it. V017 is unchanged: 261bp from the CCC exit and 37bp from the HY mirror. The 10 November FRED rows are the first post-CPI read; there will be none for 11 November.

Central bank watch

Event read-out: the third straight 0.3% core print took a December Fed hike from “above 80%” to fully priced and put 50bp on the table; the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions and the ECB’s Lane both leaned towards December.

Pricing for the 8–9 December FOMC, before and after October CPI

Current target range 3.75–4.00%. Rows are labelled by source and time; each is a separate snapshot, not a time series from one source. Friday: CME FedWatch at the 6 Nov close (via TheStreet, No. 045). Monday: Kalshi decision market at 14:16 ET (DeFiRate; its “no hike” bucket includes the small cut tail). Tuesday: CME FedWatch after the print (84.7% / 15.3%, via KuCoin/BlockBeats; Yahoo 84/15 corroborates; intraday — no post-close CME print was obtained). The Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor is still stamped 27 Oct and is not used.

3.75–4.00% (no hike)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp)	Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec, Fed; verified) + SEP	+25bp 84.7%, +50bp 15.3% (from 1.1%), hold 0% (CME after CPI, intraday; corroborated). Kalshi 85% / Polymarket 85.5% for +25bp at 16:02 ET (DeFiRate); no 50bp contract. Blackout from 28 Nov	Hike priced
RBA	4.85%	+25bp 3 Nov, 6–3; tightening bias dropped	Tue 8 Dec 14:30 (RBA; verified)	Swaps ≈80% that the cash rate has peaked, ≈30bp of easing by end-2027 (TE; single source). No December probability obtained; ASX rate tracker returned an empty table	On hold
ECB	DFR 2.50%	Held 29 Oct	Fri 18 Dec 00:15 (Thu 17 Dec CET; ECB; verified) · presser 00:45	Lane: “strong case” for a December hike if the outlook holds; Kazāks: further tightening “appears warranted”; Nagel: further tightening “looks likely” (econostream, 10 Nov; verified headlines)	Leaning to hike
BoJ	1.25%	Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%; dissent per No. 045, not shown in the Summary)	Fri 18 Dec (BoJ; verified)	Summary of Opinions: “step up the pace” towards neutral; neutral “considerably above 1 percent” (BoJ; verified). Kameda: December hike likely (TE; single source)	Hawkish hold
BoE	4.00%	+25bp 5 Nov, 8–1 (Mann for +50bp)	Thu 17 Dec 23:00	Lombardelli: a near-term hike likely absent clear easing (TE; corroborated). Q3 GDP Thu 18:00; labour data Tue 17 Nov	Hiking
RBNZ	2.75%	Held 28 Oct, 4–3 (Gourley, Conway, Silk for 3.00%)	Wed 9 Dec + MPS	Dec hike 60–65%; 2-year swap ≈3.7% (NZ Adviser, 9 Nov; single source). FSR today 07:00 AEDT, presser 11:00 AEDT (RBNZ; verified time)	Tightening bias
BoC	2.50%	+25bp 28 Oct	Thu 10 Dec 01:45 (Wed 9 Dec 09:45 ET)	October jobs −4.7k (TE). Macklem speaks 24 Nov	Hiking, careful
SNB	0.00%	Held 24 Sep	Thu 10 Dec 19:30 (SNB; verified)	Hike bets toward mid-2027 (carried)	On hold
Riksbank · Norges	2.00% · 4.50%	Riks +25bp 4 Nov · Norges held 5 Nov	Riks Wed 16 Dec · Norges Thu 17 Dec 20:00	Riksbank minutes published 10 Nov (content not retrieved). Norges FSR today 18:30	Hawkish
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Held 20 Oct; FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov	LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:15	Tue fix 6.7167 (from 6.7188; FXStreet headline; Reuters estimate not found). Spot ≈6.678	Leaning on CNY strength
Emerging markets
Brazil (BCB)	13.75%	Held 4 Nov, unanimous	Copom Thu 10 Dec ≈08:30 (meeting 8–9 Dec)	Minutes 10 Nov: expectations unanchored; four shocks named; 2026 IPCA projection 5.6% (from 5.2%), 2027 4.7% (from 3.9%); no timeline for cuts (corroborated)	Hawkish pause
Mexico (Banxico) · Peru (BCRP)	6.25% · 4.25%	Banxico −25bp 5 Nov, 3–2 · BCRP held 7 Oct	BCRP Thu 12 Nov · Banxico 17 Dec	BCRP: consensus a hike to 4.50%, TE forecast a hold (TE; conflicting). Banxico minutes 19 Nov	Mixed
Korea (BoK) · India (RBI)	3.00% · repo not confirmed	BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp in October	BoK Thu 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec	TE forecasts BoK 3.25%. SBI Research sees a 50bp RBI hike in December (22 Oct; single source)	Hiking

Fed read-out. October CPI rose 0.4% m/m against 0.3% consensus and core 0.3% against 0.2%, the third consecutive 0.3% core (BLS; verified). Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase; energy +0.7%, food +0.5%, motor-vehicle insurance +0.7%, recreation +0.8%, and used cars −1.2% held core down (BLS; verified). BLS published no headline or core 12-month rate because October 2025 prices were never collected. The speakers did the rest. Waller, speaking in London before the print, made 25bp in December his base case and said 50bp “should be considered” if core ran at about 0.3% or higher, which is where it printed (StockTitan, CoinDesk, AP; corroborated). Logan said the Fed needs “at least two more” quarter-point hikes and called policy accommodative at a 78bp real funds rate (investingLive; single source). That takes the debate from whether to hike to how much: CME moved a 50bp move from 1.1% before the print to about 15% after (TradingKey, Yahoo; corroborated), and Kalshi priced 85.5% for 25bp at 14:13 ET (DeFiRate). Board speakers this week: Barr Thu 02:00 AEDT, Bowman Sat 02:50, Jefferson Sat 11:00 (Fed calendar; verified); Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams per TE (unverified times). November CPI lands on Thursday 10 December US time, the morning after the decision.

BoJ. The Summary of Opinions from 29–30 October is more hawkish than the 8–1 hold: one member wants to “step up the pace” towards neutral, another wants neutral “soon” and puts it “considerably above 1 percent”, against members who want to assess the cumulative effect of past hikes and see consumption lacking momentum (BoJ; verified). USD/JPY ≈158.8 after CPI keeps the yen channel live into 18 December.

ECB and BoE. Lane’s “strong case for a December rate hike” if the outlook is unchanged is the most explicit signal yet from the chief economist, with Kocher and Kazāks alongside and Knot the dissenting voice (econostream; verified headlines). Lagarde speaks twice on Wednesday (TE; times unverified). The BoE has Thursday’s Q3 GDP and then the 17 November labour data before 17 December.

Regional briefs

United States, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan, China and emerging markets.

United States

The data turned the Fed from whether to how much; equities absorbed it. CPI +0.4% m/m, core +0.3% for a third month (BLS; verified). S&P 500 −0.38% to 7,520.93, Nasdaq −0.74%, Dow −0.30%, Russell −0.60% after being down twice as much at 13:29 ET (corroborated); Nvidia −5.5% on the widening Huang inquiry; homebuilders and GE Vernova led the decliners intraday (AP). Rates: 2-year ≈4.73% (+18bp), 10-year ≈4.99% after 5.02% at midday, 30-year ≈5.35% (vendor); 10-year auction 5.020%, cover 2.46. Fed: Waller opened the door to 50bp, Logan wants two more hikes; CME 15% on 50bp. Politics: the stopgap runs to Friday 11 December (CRS; verified), two days after the decision; Democrats want hearings on Nvidia. Today: Veterans Day — bond market closed, equities open; Fed releases move to Thursday. Then claims, the 30-year auction and Barr (Friday AEDT), PPI (Saturday 00:30 AEDT).

Euro area

Europe kept a small gain through the CPI print, led by banks. Stoxx 600 658.32 (+0.27%), DAX 26,347.45 (+0.31%), CAC 40 8,278.59 (+0.6%, a two-month high), FTSE MIB ≈51,644 (+0.47%) (HL/Sharecast; Stoxx and DAX tie to Monday; CAC’s percentage implies a prior near 8,229 against our ≈8,236). Morning gains on Trump’s “effectively over” line faded after the US print. Infineon rose on a record quarter (Q4 revenue +19%, FY €16.4bn); Henkel ≈+3.7% on raised organic growth guidance (3–4%); SocGen +2.5%, BNP +2.2%, Safran +2.4%; Stellantis −3.4%, Siemens Energy −3.8%, Porsche SE −3.6% (HL, TE). Yields rose with Treasuries: Bund 10-year ≈3.31% (+4bp), OAT ≈4.79% (+4bp), BTP ≈4.38% (+7bp), so BTP–Bund ≈107bp (TE; single source). The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 152.9bp for 9 November (ideal-investisseur; verified). ECB: Lane’s “strong case” for December leads a hawkish chorus. France: the Senate debates the social-security bill 9–17 November with no sitting today (Armistice Day; Euronext is open) and a solemn vote on 18 November; the state budget goes to the Senate 20 November–8 December with a vote on 9 December; the 70-day ordinance limit is 17 December; S&P reviews France on Friday 27 November (Public Sénat; verified dates; S&P date corroborated). Germany: the Bundestag budget committee’s Bereinigungssitzung runs Thursday into Friday (Bundestag; verified).

United Kingdom

Gilts sold off with Treasuries; GDP is Thursday. The FTSE 100 fell 0.29% to 10,751.59 as miners and Shell lagged — Fresnillo −4.7%, Antofagasta −2.2%, Glencore −2.1%, Shell −2.1% — against M&S +4.1% on a doubled dividend (HL; verified level; HL implies a Monday close of 10,782.87 against the 10,779.92 carried in No. 046). The 10-year gilt rose ≈7bp to ≈5.21% and the 30-year ≈5.64% (TE; single source). BRC retail sales +1.5% y/y and grocery inflation 2.6% (HL). Lombardelli said a near-term hike is likely absent clear easing, citing a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market (TE; corroborated). The Autumn Budget was delivered on 28 October with headroom roughly halved. Q3 GDP Thursday 18:00 AEDT (TE consensus 0.6% q/q; unverified); labour data and CPI follow on 17 and 18 November.

Japan

Tokyo retook 60,000 on the US chip rally. Nikkei 225 +2.87% (+1,684.08) to 60,459.58 and TOPIX +1.98% to 3,893.71 (globalnewstop; both tie exactly to Monday’s closes). SoftBank Group +13.9%, Furukawa Electric +9.7%, Resonac +9.4%, Kioxia, Tokyo Electron and Advantest +5–9%; Toyota −2.2% and Sony −1.4% (single source on movers). JGBs: 10-year ≈2.70% (+2bp), 30-year 3.88% (TE; single source). September current account ¥2.37tn against ¥3.35tn consensus as the goods account went to deficit; October Eco Watchers 46.1 against 46.8 (TE). The Summary of Opinions (§05) leans to a December hike. PPI Thursday 10:50, Q3 GDP Monday 16 November 10:50 (consensus +0.1% q/q; TE). USD/JPY ≈158.8 after CPI (TE; untimed).

China & Hong Kong

Imports beat exports and the surplus missed. October exports rose 35.2% y/y (consensus 33.5%, prior 36.3%) and imports 41.6% (consensus 32%), leaving a $105.3bn surplus against $125.8bn expected and $133.5bn in September; exports to the US +32.9% (TE, ABC; corroborated). Shanghai +0.08% to 3,663.72 and CSI 300 +0.07% to 4,059.11 (TE; both tie to Monday); the Hang Seng ≈+0.4% to ≈24,557 with AI names up (Manycore +23.7%, Z.AI +11.1%) and Jiangsu Xinde Semiconductor +20.5% on debut (TE; decimals not obtained). The PBoC fixed 6.7167 against 6.7188 (FXStreet; Reuters estimate not found); the FX RRR rises to 6% on Sunday. The tariff-truce suspensions now run to 10 January 2027 (Reuters via forth.news; corroborated). APEC leaders meet in Shenzhen, 18–19 November; a Trump–Xi bilateral is expected but no date is fixed, and the Kremlin has floated Putin (corroborated; trilateral unverified). Credit data Friday (window), activity data Monday 16 November 13:00.

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Seoul turned on the chip rally. The KOSPI rose 4.39% (+220.28) to 5,239.13 with a buy-side sidecar at 09:06; foreigners bought ₩365.9bn and institutions ₩489bn while individuals sold ₩1.3tn; Samsung +4.7%, SK hynix +6.7% (Korea JoongAng Daily; ties exactly to Monday). The TAIEX rose ≈2.5% to ≈42,712 (TE CFD-derived; unverified close), with TSMC +2.2% and Delta +9.9%; the short-sale curbs stay. India was shut for Diwali-Balipratipada (TE; single source) and reopens today; FPIs have bought more than $4.1bn this month. KRW quotes conflict (1,337.5 against ≈1,471 in two sources); neither is used. LatAm: the Copom minutes were hawkish (2026 IPCA projection raised to 5.6%); Peru’s BCRP decides Thursday with consensus split between a hike and a hold.

Australia & New Zealand

The ASX hit an 11-week high before CPI, sentiment hit a four-year low, V023 closed on the RBA table, and the labour-force date moves back to 19 November.

RBA: no speakers, peak priced

Cash rate 4.85% after the 3 November hike (6–3), with the tightening bias dropped; next decision Tuesday 8 December 14:30 (RBA; verified). No RBA speaker on Tuesday or Wednesday (RBA “coming up”; verified). Swaps put about 80% on the cash rate having peaked and price roughly 30bp of easing by end-2027 (TE; single source); no December probability could be obtained, and the ASX rate tracker returned an empty table. The diary from here: Board member Baker at the ARCA summit Thursday (the RBA page says she cannot attend), Bullock on an ASIC panel and the November minutes on Tuesday 17 November at 10:00 and 11:30, Fry-McKibbin on 20 November, Bullock again on 1 December (RBA; verified). Overnight US CPI is the larger input to the front end than any domestic speaker this week.

Markets: an 11-week high, then CPI

Equities. The ASX 200 rose 99.3 points (+1.1%) to 9,129.0, its highest close in more than two months, with every sector up except utilities and real estate the biggest gainer (ABC, TE; corroborated; the arithmetic ties to Monday’s 9,029.7). Monadelphous +15.3% on a 1H FY27 revenue outlook of ≈A$1.7bn; Qantas +5.6–6.3% on lower fuel and 850 job cuts (sources conflict); BHP +1.4%, Northern Star +3.0%; Life360 −13.5% on acquired ad growth; Woolworths ≈−1% from a record (TE, ABC). ASX 200 futures were −0.5% at 9,036 at 07:00 AEDT (ABC), pointing to a weaker open after CPI. Rates. ACGB 10-year 5.00% at the Sydney close (−1bp), below 5% for the first time in nearly three months, and the 3-year 4.70% (TE, ABC; single source each, not ASX settles); the post-CPI 10-year mark is ≈5.05% (TE; unverified). AUD. The RBA table printed 0.6924 (+0.44%), AUD/JPY 109.38 and TWI 64.1 (RBA; verified) before CPI took New York to ≈0.6863 (TE; untimed), with ABC at 68.63 US cents (−0.9%). CBA’s Q1 trading update is due today (CMC; single source); Aristocrat and Orica report Thursday.

Data, property and the China link

Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment fell 2.7% to 78.2 in November, a four-year low after 80.4 (TE; corroborated). The NAB survey had October confidence at −15 (from −14 revised), the lowest since April, and conditions −2, with labour-cost growth easing and output-price growth slowing (TE; single source; one TE page calls it a six-year low, which conflicts). Today: lending indicators for Q3 at 11:30. Correction to No. 046 (material): the ABS calendar lists October Labour Force on Thursday 19 November 11:30 and WPI on Wednesday 18 November; 24 November carries only minor employment-characteristics releases (ABS; verified by two desks). No. 046 had moved the date to 24 November in error. Property: the latest Cotality clearance found is the preliminary 47.2% for the week ending 1 November, the lowest since April 2020 (Cotality; verified); the 8 November final was not found. China: iron ore $93.05 at 12:45 AEDT (ABC; corroborated with TE’s $92.71 for 9 November). The import beat (+41.6% y/y) is the better read for miners than the surplus miss.

New Zealand

The preliminary count still gives National–ACT–NZ First 67 of 131 seats against 66 needed; outstanding specials are put at ≈300k–400k (sources conflict) and the official result is Friday 27 November (AP via NY1; corroborated). NZD/USD ran ≈0.564 into the Sydney afternoon (TE), which is what took the RBA cross to 1.2281 and closed V023 (§08). The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report was due at 07:00 AEDT today with a press conference at 11:00 AEDT (RBNZ; verified time); its content was not captured at filing. Q3 unemployment 5.7% is an 11-year high; the 2-year swap is ≈3.7% and a 9 December hike is priced 60–65% (NZ Adviser; single source). The NZX 50 close was not obtained.

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.85% (3 Nov, 6–3)	4.60%	Tue 8 Dec 14:30 · minutes Tue 17 Nov 11:30
Westpac sentiment (Nov) · NAB confidence (Oct)	78.2 · −15	80.4 · −14 (rev.)	Dec · Dec
NAB conditions (Oct)	−2	−1
Lending indicators (Q3)	—	−1.9% q/q	Today 11:30
Wage price index (Q3)	—	0.8% q/q · 3.2% y/y (carried)	Wed 18 Nov 11:30 (ABS; verified)
Labour force (Oct)	—	Sep: −39k, 4.7%	Thu 19 Nov 11:30 (ABS; corrects No. 046)
Monthly CPI (Oct)	—		Thu 26 Nov 11:30 (ABS; verified)
Auction clearance (combined capitals)	47.2% (w/e 1 Nov, prelim.)	lowest since Apr 2020	8 Nov final not found

House views & tactical framework

One closed, four open, none opened. V023 stopped on the RBA table as pre-committed; the rates backdrop moved against nothing we hold and towards V017.

Closed: V023, AUD/NZD long. The RBA 4pm table printed 1.2281 on Tuesday 10 November (RBA; verified) after 1.2328 on Monday: two consecutive closes below 1.2400, which fires the stop written on 29 October. That pre-commitment scores the stop RIGHT, because the view had paid on its event (to 1.2505 on 2 November) before the stop was set, and the rule is applied as written. It should be said plainly that the exit is below the ≈1.2315 entry: on the entry reference the trade finished ≈34 pips (−0.28%) under water, and No. 046’s “≈+0.1% on entry” was an estimate made at 1.2328 that the exit print did not honour. The move that stopped it was New Zealand, not Australia — the RBA’s AUD/USD rose to 0.6924 on the same table. Per the 23 October convention it is not reopened on the next session.

What moved in the others. V031: the Nasdaq-100 close for Tuesday was not obtained (Yahoo’s NDX page was cached on Monday; the Composite fell 0.74%). Per the 6 October convention the view is carried unmarked and named, and is not marked on the Composite or an intraday print (≈27,620 at an untimed point). Last mark 27,907.63 (9 Nov), 4.39% in favour; 30,932 is ≈11% above. V025: the dedicated series printed 152.9bp for 9 November (ideal-investisseur; verified), 12.9bp above the 140bp mirror (0 of 2). V017: FRED IG 91bp and CCC 1,311bp on 9 November, and the missing HY row for 6 November posted at 342bp (FRED/ALFRED; verified) — 261bp from the CCC exit and 37bp from the HY mirror. CPI and a 5% 10-year are the wrong backdrop for CCC; CoreWeave is the single-name test. V024: Brent January settled $91.49 on Tuesday and $92.57 on Monday (Reuters via Investing.com; Nation Thailand; the two tie), so the view is marked on settles again: $6.98 above the $84.51 band top, 0 of 2.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	High	1–3 mo	Dedicated 152.9bp (9 Nov) — verified; 153.9 (6 Nov). Senate vote on the social-security bill 18 Nov, state budget 9 Dec; ordinance limit 17 Dec; S&P review 27 Nov	MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (0 of 2). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	FRED IG 91bp, CCC 1,311bp (9 Nov); HY 342bp (6 Nov) — verified. A 25bp hike fully priced and 50bp at ≈15%; 10-year at 5%. CoreWeave beat on revenue and raised guidance, but financed with ≈$4.2bn of convertibles and an ATM (single source)	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (261bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (37bp away)
Equities
Nasdaq-100 (V031)	Put spread (hedge)	Low	1–2 mo	Unmarked for 10 Nov — no Nasdaq-100 close obtained. Last mark 27,907.63 (9 Nov; 4.39% in favour). Nvidia −5.5% on the inquiry; Composite −0.74%; Nvidia reports 18 Nov AEDT	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it. No profit-taking rule was written, so none is applied
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	January settle $91.49 (10 Nov), $92.57 (9 Nov) — corroborated. Low $89.70; blockade in place; Iran’s two-day reopening offer conditional on ending the war	UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms
FX — closed this edition
AUD/NZD (V023)	CLOSED — stop	—	—	RBA 1.2328 (9 Nov) and 1.2281 (10 Nov) — verified. Opened ≈1.2315 on 9 Sep; peak 1.2505 (2 Nov)	Scored RIGHT under the 29 Oct pre-commitment; exit 34 pips below entry (−0.28%). Not reopened

Ledger. Four open; 27 closed — 4 right, 16 wrong, 7 scratch; trailing hit rate 4 of 20 decided. Next-session actions: FRED NASDAQ100 10 Nov (V031, unmarked); FRED HY 9–10 Nov and IG/CCC 10 Nov (V017); OAT–Bund 10 Nov (V025); Brent January settle 11 Nov (V024). Veterans Day leaves no official par row and no FRED credit row for 11 November.

Portfolio-level read. The print did what the book was built for: the front end repriced, the long end went through 5% and the hedge (V031) and the credit underweight (V017) are both on the right side of it. The one view to close was the one with the least to do with the Fed. No new view is opened. A 2-year short after a 20bp day is chasing a move that is now priced at 100% for 25bp; a long-end view needs the 30-year auction on Thursday and the 13 November CFTC file first (house judgement).

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The “what changes the view” column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project’s views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

The CFTC file still predates the print; what it shows is the size of the short that met a 5% 10-year. Sentiment readings are from before CPI.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC — data as of Tue 3 Nov (dated archive files; nets derived). Next file normally Fri 13 Nov US (holiday shift not checked)
Treasuries — TFF leveraged funds net (six contracts)	−7,249,305	−372,034 w/w	2y −1.45m · 5y −2.32m · 10y −2.26m · ultra-10 −258k · bond −166k · ultra-bond −796k (verified, matches No. 046). Asset managers long 4.47m / 3.73m in 5s / 10s. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure
SOFR-3M · fed funds — TFF LF net	−2.60m · +240k	fed funds −274k w/w	Leveraged funds were already cutting fed-funds length before the hike repricing
Equity index — TFF LF net	ES −372k · NQ +10k · RTY −55k	ES +28k w/w	Legacy non-commercial: ES −129k, NQ +43k, RTY −24k (series named; they differ in size, not sign)
FX — TFF LF net vs legacy non-comm.	JPY −14.8k / +102.3k · AUD +50.1k / −129.5k · GBP +26.7k / −59.8k	sign split on three of five	EUR −78.6k / −157.8k and NZD −23.2k / −60.0k agree. No positioning claim is made without the series
Gold · WTI — managed money net	+103.6k · +21.7k	−1.9k · −9.4k	Neither is crowded long going into a −2.7% gold day
Flows and leverage
ICI money-market assets (w/e 4 Nov)	$8.02tn	+$114.5bn	Institutional +$102.3bn; government +$117.8bn (ICI; verified). Next ≈Thu
ICI long-term funds incl. ETFs (w/e 28 Oct)	+$9.36bn	equity +$11.07bn	Bonds +$3.17bn, commodity −$1.89bn (ICI; verified)
Spot BTC ETFs	Mon 9 Nov −$201m	week to 6 Nov −$1.28bn	Monday single source (LePrivateBanker); the week from SoSoValue via The Block. 2026 YTD ≈−$914m
Spot ETH ETFs	Mon −$184.6m	week −$365m	Single source for Monday; sixth weekly outflow
Goldman prime book (w/e 6 Nov)	Gross −8.7pt		Carried from No. 046; not corroborated this run (an October monthly net −4.2pt figure was found). Single source
Sentiment & vol — before the print unless marked
VIX · VIX/VIX3M (Mon close)	19.92 · 0.955	contango, day 1	November future 20.01, December 19.49 (thetrading.tools; provisional). Tuesday: 19.50 (Yahoo; single source)
Fear & Greed replica · put/call (6 Nov)	17 · total 0.95	extreme fear	Equity P/C 0.59; total 9-day average at the 81st percentile since Jan 2025
SKEW (6 Nov) · Hindenburg (9 Nov)	153.6 · 2 of 4	98th pct since 1990	Inactive: SPY below its 50-day, McClellan +36.9
AAII (4 Nov)	Bulls 34.1 · bears 48.4	−14.3	Next reading ≈Thu
BofA FMS (October)	Cash 3.9% · net 44% OW equities	crowded: long semis 45%	Top tail risk: disorderly rise in bond yields (31%) — the risk that printed last night. November survey ≈17 Nov (unverified). Single source except the 31%
Valuation, earnings & strategists
FactSet (6 Nov, 88% reported)	Q3 EPS +31.4% · 84% beat	Fwd P/E 17.7×	5-yr average 19.8×; CY26 +33.3%, CY27 +16.1% (FactSet; verified)
Strategists	MS Wilson floor 7,100–7,300	“nearly over”	GS 2027 year-end 8,700 (19 Oct; aggregator, unverified). No post-CPI house Fed call retrieved

The week ahead

Today and tomorrow in full, the rest of the week, then the sessions into the December decisions. Times in AEDT (UTC+11) with US Eastern (EST, UTC−5) alongside.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Wednesday 11 November — US Veterans Day: bond market closed (SIFMA), equities open · Euronext open · India reopens
Wed	07:00 · 11:00	Tue 15:00 · 19:00	RBNZ Financial Stability Report · press conference			M
Wed	≈08:05 · 09:00	Tue AMC · 17:00	CoreWeave Q3 results · call (CoreWeave IR; verified call time)	no consensus confirmed		H
Wed	day	—	CBA Q1 trading update (single source)			M
Wed	11:30	Tue 19:30	AU lending indicators (Q3)		−1.9% q/q	L
Wed	≈12:15	Tue 20:15	PBoC USD/CNY fix		6.7167	L
Wed	18:00 · 18:30	02:00 · 02:30	DE final CPI (Oct) · Norges Bank FSR			L
Wed	18:50 · 20:45	02:50 · 04:45	ECB Cipollone · Lagarde (TE; times unverified)			M
Thursday 12 November
Thu	10:50 · 11:00	Wed 18:50 · 19:00	JP PPI (Oct) · AU consumer inflation expectations (Nov)	6.7% y/y (TE)		M
Thu	12:30	Wed 20:30	BoJ Asada (TE)			M
Thu	18:00	02:00	UK Q3 GDP (prelim) q/q · Sep m/m · IP · trade	0.6% · 0.0% (TE)	0.7% q/q	H
Thu	day	—	Peru BCRP decision · Aristocrat, Orica FY results · Bundestag budget committee (into Fri)	4.50% / 4.25%	4.25%	L
Fri	00:30	Thu 08:30	US initial jobless claims	191k (TE)	195k	M
Fri	01:00–10:30	Thu 09:00–18:30	Fed Hammack, Barr (02:00, verified), Goolsbee, Daly, Williams			M
Fri	04:00	Thu 12:00	EIA weekly petroleum (moved for the holiday; EIA verified)			M
Fri	05:00	Thu 13:00	UST 30-year auction ($25bn; Treasury Q4 schedule)			H
Fri	08:30	Thu 16:30	Cisco Q1 FY27 call (verified) · Applied Materials Q4 call (verified)	CSCO EPS ≈$1.32		H
Friday 13 – Monday 16 November
Fri	window · 21:00	— · 05:00	China credit (Oct) · EZ Q3 GDP 2nd est.	0.4% q/q		M
Sat	00:30	Fri 08:30	US PPI (Oct) (BLS; verified date)	+0.3% m/m (TE)	+0.4%	H
Sat	02:50 · 11:00	Fri 10:50 · 19:00	Fed Bowman · Jefferson (Fed calendar; verified) · CFTC COT (10 Nov positions)			M
Mon	10:50 · 13:00	Sun 18:50 · 21:00	JP Q3 GDP · China activity (Oct) — IP, retail sales, FAI	+0.1% q/q (TE)	+0.1%	H
The sessions after — into the December decisions
17–20 Nov	—	—	Bullock + RBA minutes, UK labour, ZEW, US retail sales (17th) · Nvidia Q3 call 09:00 Wed 18th · AU WPI, UK CPI, France Senate PLFSS vote (18th) · FOMC minutes 06:00 Thu 19th · AU labour force Thu 19th · APEC Shenzhen (18–19th; Trump–Xi expected) · LPR (20th)			H
23–29 Nov	—	—	AU CPI (26th) · ECB non-monetary meeting (25th) · BoK (26th) · Thanksgiving (26th) · NZ official result (27th) · S&P on France (27th) · Fed blackout from 28th · OPEC+ seven (29th)			M
8–11 Dec	—	—	RBA Tue 8th 14:30 · RBNZ (9th) · BoC (01:45 Thu 10th) · FOMC 06:00 Thu 10th + SEP · Copom (≈08:30 10th) · US Nov CPI (10th US) · SNB 19:30 Thu 10th · US funding deadline Fri 11th			H
16–18 Dec	—	—	Riksbank (16th) · Norges 20:00, BoE 23:00 (17th) · France ordinance limit (17th) · ECB 00:15 Fri 18th · BoJ Fri 18th · Banxico (17th, unverified)			H

Consensus figures are Trading Economics calendar entries as of 10 November and are unverified; TE also printed placeholder “actuals” for future releases, which were discarded. Fed Board speaker times are from the Fed’s calendar; regional-bank times are TE’s. The UMich November preliminary appears to have been released on 6 November (single source), so none is shown this week. Importance ratings are this desk’s judgement. AEDT = EST + 16h until US DST resumes in March.

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	The Fed goes 50bp, or signals a run of hikes	PPI Sat 00:30; FOMC minutes 19 Nov; Nov payrolls 4 Dec; decision 06:00 Thu 10 Dec	50bp ≈15% (CME, after CPI); 25bp 85.5% (Kalshi 14:13 ET); any hike before 2027 96% (Kalshi)	2-year through 4.85%; dollar higher; equities de-rate further; EM and crypto pressure	2-year payer spreads; no outright duration
2	The long end runs away from the short	30-year auction Fri 05:00 AEDT; 10-year cleared at 5.020% with a 2.46 cover	FMS top tail risk: disorderly yields (31%)	30-year above 5.40%; a forced unwind of a 7.25m-contract LF short in either direction	Low duration; curve options rather than outright
3	AI-capex financing breaks in public	CoreWeave tonight; Cisco/AMAT Fri 08:30; Nvidia 18 Nov 09:00; Anthropic IPO pricing ≈18 Nov (reported)	FMS most crowded: long semis 45%	CCC back above 1,350bp; NDX through 26,000; KOSPI/TAIEX give back Tuesday	V017; V031
4	Hormuz interim deal lands	Qatar-brokered terms; Trump “effectively over”; blockade still in place	Hormuz agreement by 30 Nov 34.0% (Polymarket, 31 Oct; stale)	Brent toward the mid-$80s; breakevens and the front end lower; the regime’s oil leg met	V024 band ($81.51–84.51) comes into range
5	The talks fail and strikes resume	Rubio “not close”; Houthi missiles at Riyadh 10 Nov; mines claim 7 Nov		Brent back above $100; TTF higher with storage below 73%	V024’s residual call
6	Crypto deleveraging through the August low	BTC below $73k, lowest since 20 Aug; ETF outflows; $632m liquidated in 24h		$70,000 then the ETF cost basis; risk-off spills into high-beta equities	No view open
7	Trump–Xi in Shenzhen goes wrong	APEC 18–19 Nov; truce to 10 Jan 2027		CNY reversal; KOSPI/TAIEX and AUD hit through China beta	AUD/USD puts
8	US funding deadline two days after the FOMC	Stopgap expires Fri 11 Dec (CRS; verified)		Data blackout risk into year-end; bills cheapen	Bill–OIS
9	France: rating and 49.3 channel	Senate PLFSS vote 18 Nov; S&P 27 Nov; PLF vote 9 Dec; ordinance limit 17 Dec		OAT–Bund through 161.8bp then 174.6bp	V025 (High)
10	Yen squeeze into the December BoJ	Summary of Opinions hawkish; USD/JPY ≈158.8; Q3 GDP Mon		USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind	Short-dated USD/JPY puts
11	Short squeeze against hedges	Fear & Greed 17; AAII −14.3; Wilson “nearly over”		Index squeeze against V031	Keep hedges as spreads

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed; unattributed levels are our reading.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	7,520.93	7,470.43 (Tue low) · 7,376.86 (6 Nov) · ≈7,323 (200-day) · 7,100–7,300 (MS Wilson)	7,549.94 (9 Nov) · ≈7,621 (100-day) · ≈7,678 (50-day)	MAs investingLive, WallStreetNumbers (corroborated)
Nasdaq-100	not obtained (27,907.63 on 9 Nov)	27,103 (50% of the year’s range) · 26,989.99 (6 Nov) · 26,098 (61.8%)	≈27,953–27,978 (200-day) · 28,538 · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes)	Range levels investingLive (single source)
UST 10y · 2y	≈4.99% · ≈4.73% (vendor, 15:2x ET)	4.88 (9 Nov par) · 4.80 · 4.56 (9 Nov par 2y)	5.05 (28 Oct par) · 5.10 · 4.85	Regime test: par 10y below 4.85% with Brent under $90 on the same day
OAT–Bund	152.9bp (9 Nov)	148.2 (5 Nov) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes)	153.9 (6 Nov) · 161.8 (3 Nov) · 174.6 (22 Oct)	Dedicated series is the mark
ACGB 3y · 10y	4.70 · 5.00% (Sydney)	4.65 · 4.95	4.76 · 5.05 (post-CPI mark, unverified)	Our reading
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	≈102.26 · ≈1.1162 · ≈158.8	101.43 · 1.1100 · 156.08	102.30 (6 Nov) · 1.1227 · 160	Our reading
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.6924 · 1.2281 (RBA)	0.6850 · 1.2200	0.6951 (CBA) · 1.2400	V023 closed; no AUD view open
Brent (Jan)	$91.49 (settle)	$89.70 (Tue low) · $81.51–84.51 (V024)	$92.57 (9 Nov, derived) · $98.32 (6 Nov) · $103.60 (3 Nov)	Below $90 intraday for the first time since August
Gold · Silver	$4,032.40 · ≈$51.2	$4,000 · $3,920	$4,138.90 (9 Nov) · $4,200	Kitco spot
S&P/ASX 200	9,129.0	9,065.1 (5 Nov) · 9,029.7 (9 Nov) · 8,968.5	9,200 · late-August highs	Highest close in more than two months; no view open
HY / IG / CCC OAS	342 (6 Nov) / 91 / 1,311bp (9 Nov)	HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits)	HY 360 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct)	FRED; each series carries its own date
Bitcoin	$73,632	$72,787 (Tue low) · $72,500 · $70,000	$73,510 · $75,984 · $79–80k	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was corrected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

CPI event edition on the post-DST clock. The run started at 06:12 AEDT, when the US Tuesday session was two hours from its close and CPI was six hours old. Six research desks ran in parallel; Asia, Australia, Europe, the central banks and the calendar were written first, and the US-close block was fetched after the 16:00 ET bell, as the runbook’s timing protocol requires. At filing (≈09:00 AEDT) the AP tabulation for Tuesday was not retrievable after half an hour of retries, so the four cash closes are Yahoo’s post-close quote bar, which ties to the point to AP’s Monday closes and to TipRanks’ percentages; the Nasdaq-100 and SOX closes were not obtained. Treasury levels are vendor reads from 15:19–15:27 ET, and Fed pricing is CME’s post-CPI intraday read plus prediction markets at 16:02 ET. Primary reads this run: the BLS CPI release; the RBA 4pm table (10 Nov) and the RBA “coming up” diary; the official Treasury par curve (rows to 9 Nov); FRED/ALFRED IG, CCC (9 Nov) and HY (6 Nov); the dedicated OAT–Bund series (9 Nov); the BoJ Summary of Opinions PDF; the Fed’s FOMC and November calendars; SIFMA’s holiday recommendation; the EIA schedule; the BLS PPI schedule; the ABS release calendar; the CFTC dated archive files as of 3 Nov; ICI; FactSet (6 Nov); Kitco; CoreWeave, Cisco, AMAT and Nvidia investor-relations pages; the RBNZ, Norges, SNB, Riksbank and ECB calendars; Public Sénat and the Bundestag. Every figure was retrieved on 11 November 2026 (AEDT; 10 November US time); nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 046

(1) Australian labour force date (material): No. 046 moved October Labour Force to Tuesday 24 November as a correction. That correction was itself wrong. The ABS calendar lists Thursday 19 November 11:30 (two desks, ABS; verified); 24 November carries only minor employment-characteristics releases. The October CPI date (Thursday 26 November) stands; one desk’s 25 November reading was not confirmed. The calendar and data-trail tables are corrected.
(2) Monday 9 Nov US closes: the AP tabulation replaces the Reuters preliminary closes: S&P 500 7,549.94 (+173.08), Dow 52,389.75 (+1,104.02), Nasdaq 25,253.14 (+673.71), Russell 2000 2,840.81 (+86.71, +3.1%) (AP via La Nación; verified, and Yahoo’s Tuesday changes back out to the same priors). The disputed Dow change is neither of the two figures No. 046 carried. VIX Monday close 19.92 (thetrading.tools; provisional), not ≈19.7.
(3) FRED HY 6 Nov: posted at 342bp; V017’s HY mark moves from 348bp (5 Nov). IG 91bp and CCC 1,311bp for 9 Nov.
(4) Official par 9 Nov: 2y 4.56, 5y 4.67, 10y 4.88, 30y 5.26% (Treasury; verified). No. 046’s vendor ≈4.55–4.57 / ≈4.86–4.88 were consistent.
(5) Brent and WTI 9 Nov: settles found: Brent January $92.57 (−$5.75, −5.85%) and WTI December $86.85 (−$3.98) (Nation Thailand; corroborated by Cornerstone’s implied priors and Tuesday’s Reuters changes). No. 046’s late quotes (≈$93.8 / ≈$87.6) were above the settles.
(6) FTSE 100 9 Nov: HL/Sharecast’s Tuesday change implies a Monday close of 10,782.87, not 10,779.92 (unresolved; level shown as reported).
(7) Discharged: RBA 4pm 10 Nov (V023 closed); AP 9 Nov; FRED HY 6 Nov; par 9 Nov; OAT–Bund 9 Nov; CPI; 10-year auction; BoJ Summary; China trade; Westpac; NAB. Brent and WTI settles 9–10 Nov (secondary sources; no exchange page). Still open: SPI settlements; Nasdaq-100 10 Nov; Cotality 8 Nov final; FRED NASDAQ100 9–10 Nov; RBNZ FSR content.

Conflicts and how they were resolved

10-year auction: one source reports a 1bp tail against a 5.010% when-issued; another calls the auction in line with a 0.6bp stop-through. The 5.020% high yield and 2.46 cover agree; the tail is shown as disputed. CPI y/y: TE’s calendar shows 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, which contradicts BLS; BLS is used and published no 12-month headline or core rate. Fed pricing: CME 25bp 84.7% / 50bp 15.3% (TradingKey), ≈84/15 (Yahoo), 50bp 13.6% (MortgagePoint); Kalshi 25bp 85.5% against a separate Kalshi “hike” contract at 96.5%, which DeFiRate itself flags. Investing.com put 50bp at “nearly 11%” at 15:30 ET against CME’s 15.3% intraday; the chart uses CME and says so. ASX 200: TE’s quote header (9,143.6) and an ABC midday snapshot (9,272.9) conflict with the 9,129 close that ties to TE’s +99.31; both are discarded. Qantas: +6.3% (TE) against +5.6% (ABC). NAB confidence: “lowest since April” against “six-year low” on two TE pages. KRW: 1,337.5 against ≈1,471; neither used. NZ specials: ≈300k against ≈400k. CAC 40: HL’s +0.6% implies a prior near 8,229 against the carried ≈8,236. Nikkei: 60,459.58 ties exactly to Monday; a TE item at 60,741 is discarded. IG issuance: the “≈$40bn this week” figure carried in No. 046 matches a Bloomberg item dated 10 November 2025 and is withdrawn as stale.

Single-source and unverified items

Logan remarks · 10-year auction bidder split · core ex-used-cars arithmetic · TAIEX close (TE CFD-derived) · India holiday · European, JGB, gilt and ACGB cash yields (TE) · FX except the RBA table (TE, untimed) · Hormuz plan terms ($8bn; Israeli media via oilprice.com) · hormuz.now transit counts · Monday ETF flows · liquidation totals · Goldman prime-book data (carried) · October FMS detail · year-end targets (aggregator) · Anthropic IPO terms (reported) · RBA peak pricing (TE) · NZ swap pricing · CBA trading-update date · TE consensus figures.

Not obtained

AP tabulation for 10 Nov · Nasdaq-100 and SOX closes · sector closes · closing moves for Take-Two, Hims & Hers, GE Vernova · CME post-close print · 10-year auction WI and tail from a primary · Tuesday ETF flows · CoreWeave Q4 guidance · ASX rate-tracker probabilities · ASX 30-day futures settlements · Cotality 8 Nov final clearance · NZX 50 close · HS Tech close · Riksbank minutes content · RBNZ FSR content · Reuters estimate for the PBoC fix · BofA Flow Show (6 Nov) · Deutsche Bank positioning update · OPEC MOMR and IEA OMR dates · LME copper rows for 9–10 Nov (Westmetall) · CoreWeave CDS.

Thursday’s first verification targets

(1) Official par 10 Nov (posts ≈10:00 AEDT today; no row for 11 Nov). (2) Brent January settles 9 and 10 Nov from an exchange or Reuters print (V024). (3) CoreWeave results and the reaction (V017, V031). (4) FRED HY 9–10 Nov, IG/CCC 10 Nov (V017). (5) OAT–Bund 10 Nov (V025). (6) FRED NASDAQ100 10 Nov (V031). (7) RBNZ FSR; Lagarde; Australian lending; CBA update. (8) 30-year auction setup and UK GDP.

United States, Fed & politics

Rates, FX & central banks

RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · RBA — meetings · TE — DXY and FX · FXStreet — PBoC fix
ideal-investisseur — OAT–Bund · TE — European yields · JGB · ACGB
BoJ — Summary of Opinions · econostream — ECB · RBNZ — FSR · NZ Adviser — RBNZ pricing
Copom minutes · TE — BCRP · SNB · Norges Bank · ECB

Australia, New Zealand & Asia

Europe & geopolitics

Commodities, credit & digital assets

Business Standard — oil settle % · Arbiterz — Brent below $90 · OilPrice · Buckhead · hormuz.now · EIA schedule · Reuters via Investing.com — settles 10 Nov · Nation Thailand — settles 9 Nov · AFP via anews — Iran terms
Kitco — gold · TE — metals · Westmetall · ALFRED — HY · IG · CCC · TIKR — CoreWeave bonds
CoinGecko · The Block — ETF week · LePrivateBanker — Monday flows · Bitcoin.com — $72,787 low

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the time stamps shown and may have been revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. No. 047, Wednesday 11 November 2026.