The bottom line
- Payrolls beat by about 100k and the December hike went back to roughly four-in-five. October nonfarm payrolls rose 165k against consensus quoted at 59–65k, with +84k of revisions (August 186k, September 60k), unemployment 4.1% and average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m, 3.1% y/y (BLS; verified). CME priced a 9 December hike at 77% at Friday’s close, from 67% on Thursday, and LSEG at 78% (TheStreet, Reuters; corroborated); Kalshi’s December book shows 77% for +25bp. The official par 2-year rose 5bp to 4.51% and the 10-year 2bp to 4.86% (Treasury; verified); DXY rose ≈0.7% to ≈102.3, its best day since June (TheStreet; single source). October CPI on Wednesday 00:30 AEDT is the next and larger test (nowcasts +0.24% headline, +0.21% core; no y/y figures for most indices because of the 2025 shutdown gap). The regime test failed for a fourth session and the tag holds.
- Wall Street paused the AI sell-off on Friday; Tokyo and Seoul took the next leg. The S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.09% to 24,579.42, but the Dow fell 0.46% to 51,285.73 (AP; corroborated). For the week the S&P fell 2.7%, its worst week since April 2025, and the Nasdaq 3.4%, a fourth straight weekly fall. Chips bounced (SOX +4.2%, AMD +11%, Nvidia ≈+3%) on a day Asia had already sold them: the Nikkei −5.96% to 57,435, TOPIX −5.90% with all 33 sectors down, SoftBank −20.8% and Kioxia −36.8% on the week; the KOSPI −6.02% to 5,059.69 with a Level 1 circuit breaker and foreigners selling ₩2.77tn; the TAIEX −4.51% (−12.2% on the week). India rose again (Nifty +2.0%, +8.6% on the week). Read here as forced selling of the North Asian AI-hardware chain rather than a fresh US signal; the S&P sits 0.7% above its 200-day (7,325.05).
- Credit moved: HY OAS widened 16bp to 348bp on Thursday’s rout, through the 345bp line flagged on Friday. FRED HY was 348bp on 5 November (from 332), CCC 1,320bp (+23) and IG 93bp (+2) (FRED; verified); the 6 November rows post later today. AI-linked IG bonds trade ≈148bp against ≈77bp for the rest of IG (BofA data via a secondary; single source), CoreWeave 5-year CDS is reported above 1,000bp (Reuters) and its 2031 notes yielded 16.3% on TRACE on Friday (single source). That is the first sign the equity discount on the AI build is reaching its cost of capital. V017 (UW HY/CCC, High) moves 16bp in favour; the exit and mirror conditions stand. CoreWeave reports Tuesday US time and Nebius and Cisco Thursday.
- The weekend in the Gulf leaned toward escalation, and oil reopens at 10:00 AEDT. Trump confirmed “minor strikes” on Iran on Friday (Qeshm; Iranian media also reported blasts at Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas); CENTCOM set up Task Force Iron Gate to extend the blockade to land routes and the Caspian and disabled the cargo ship M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman; UKMTO reported a projectile strike on an outbound tanker in Hormuz on Saturday; the IRGC said it had lifted its self-imposed ballistic-missile range limit (CBS, Al Jazeera, Fox; corroborated). Against that, Trump told CNN on Sunday a return to full war is “highly unlikely” if progress is made, and Iran’s nuclear proposal is with Washington via Qatar. Brent January ended Friday at $98.32 (+$0.03; −13.3% on the week) and WTI December at $90.83 (TE, oilprice.com; corroborated). No Monday indication exists at filing; the weekend skew is to the upside (house reading). V024’s band is ≈$13.8 below.
- V006 is closed WRONG, and AUD/NZD sits one pip above V023’s stop with the New Zealand result unresolved. The ASX 200 closed 9,020.8 (−0.49%) on Friday (CommBank/AAP, TE, ABC; corroborated) — a second consecutive close above 8,900 — so the underweight opened at 9,005.9 on 7 September closes WRONG at −0.17% against. The RBA table printed AUD/USD 0.6900 (−1.63%) and AUD/NZD 1.2401 (verified), one pip above V023’s 1.2400 line; New York’s cross closed ≈1.2377 (derived), which does not count. New Zealand’s National–ACT–NZ First bloc holds 67 of a projected 131 seats on the preliminary count (66 needed), with ≈14% of votes uncounted and specials historically favouring the left; the official result is 27 November (Al Jazeera, ThePrint/Reuters; corroborated). Today’s 16:00 RBA print can make V023 1 of 2.
- Positioning ran into the week short duration and long cash, which sets up CPI as the pivot for both. Leveraged funds were net short 7.25m Treasury futures across six contracts on 3 November, 372k more than a week earlier (CFTC TFF; verified, net derived), consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure; they also cut a Fed-funds long by 274k. Money-market assets rose $114.5bn to $8.016tn (ICI; verified), Lipper counted $172.7bn into money funds, the most since April 2020, and BofA’s Flow Show $140bn into cash (corroborated). Fear & Greed is 17, AAII bulls-minus-bears −14.3, VIX/VIX3M 1.04 (backwardated), SKEW 153.6 (thetrading.tools, AAII; corroborated). Spot BTC ETFs lost $1.28bn on the week (derived from daily flows) and BTC is ≈$75,800. A soft CPI squeezes a record bond short and a cash pile at the same time; a hot one hits a market with no cushion left in rates (house reading).
Overnight & weekend recap
Asia and Australia, Friday 6 November
Asia traded Thursday’s US rout in full. The Nikkei 225 fell 5.96% (−3,643) to 57,435, its fifth straight fall, after an intraday low of 56,746; TOPIX fell 5.90% to 3,707.99 with 21 risers against 1,523 decliners on the Prime market and turnover ≈¥12.5tn (NewsOnJapan, TE; Nikkei corroborated, TOPIX single source). The Nikkei lost more than 9% on the week, its worst since March 2020 (TE). PM Takaichi said the government is monitoring markets; NewsOnJapan reports the BoJ raised its annual ETF sales target to ¥860bn from ¥330bn (single source; unconfirmed by the BoJ). The JGB 10-year fell ≈12bp to ≈2.64%. Korea: KOSPI −6.02% to 5,059.69, a nine-month low, after an 8%+ fall at the open tripped a Level 1 circuit breaker; KOSDAQ −5.03%; foreigners sold ₩2.77tn net against institutions +₩1.70tn (Asiae, TE, ABC; corroborated). Taiwan: TAIEX −4.51% to 39,702, TSMC −4.69%, −12.2% on the week (TE; single source). Hong Kong gave back part of Thursday: Hang Seng −1.27% to 24,481.86, with Z.AI −10.6% and SMIC −4.9%; Shanghai −1.10% to 3,649.18 and CSI 300 −1.44% to 4,054.28 (TE; single source). China’s FX reserves rose to $3.405tn (Saturday; TE). India rose against the tide: Sensex +2.17% to 81,028.02 and Nifty +2.01% to 25,030.35, a seventh straight gain and +8.6% on the week, the best since February 2021 (HDFC Sky; single source). The ASX 200 fell 0.49% to 9,020.8, with materials −3% and banks bid (detail in §07).
Europe
European equities fell about 1% on the Asian chip sell-off. The Stoxx 600 closed 648.33 (−1.00%; +0.24% on the week), the DAX 25,820.36 (−1.92%), the CAC 40 8,139.00 (−0.81%; +2.13% on the week), the FTSE 100 10,673.94 (−1.01%) and the FTSE MIB 50,052.96 (−0.90%) (cappnotes, stl.news, investomine; corroborated; Stoxx ties to Thursday’s 654.87). Insurers fell ≈2.6% after JPMorgan downgraded the German reinsurers (Hannover Re −4.5%, Munich Re −3.9%); Deutsche Post −4.8%; travel was bid on cheaper oil. German September industrial production rose 0.7% m/m against a flat consensus (TE). Bund ≈3.25%, OAT ≈4.77%, BTP ≈4.34%, gilt ≈5.16% (TE; single source). BoE Chief Economist Pill said the path of rates “will become more uncertain” into spring, with evidence on second-round effects due then (PA; single source).
US session, Friday 6 November
Payrolls printed at 08:30 ET: +165k, unemployment 4.1%, AHE +0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, participation 61.9%, with gains in professional services (+70k), health care (+42k), transport (+25k) and manufacturing (+19k) (BLS; verified). The preliminary UMich index rose to 51.0 from 48.0 with one-year inflation expectations at 4.3% (from 4.7%) and five-to-ten-year at 3.4% (TheStreet; single source). Chips led an early rebound — Nvidia was up 5.6–6.5% intraday — that faded into the close. Final: S&P +23.13 to 7,376.86, Nasdaq +264.43 to 24,579.42, Dow −237.33 to 51,285.73, Russell +24.22 to 2,754.11 (AP; corroborated; Investrade shows S&P +23.19, Dow −236.85). The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.35% to 26,989.99 (FRED; verified) and the equal-weight S&P fell 0.4%, with decliners beating advancers 318 to 184. Tech (+1.3%) was the only sector up more than 0.6%; staples −1.2%, financials and real estate ≈−0.7%. Movers: AMD +11%, Lam ≈+8%, Vistra +11%, NRG +10%, Coherent +14%, Airbnb +12%; Axon −18%, DraftKings −21%, Atlassian −16%, Microchip −10% (TheStreet, Reuters; corroborated). Energy fell ≈12% on the week, its worst since April 2025. The VIX closed ≈25.6 (−9%), up ≈32% on the week (two secondaries; FRED not posted).
Weekend 7–8 November
Iran. Trump confirmed “minor strikes” on Friday and said there would be no return to full war; Iranian media reported blasts at Qeshm, Jask, Sirik and Bandar Abbas. On Saturday CENTCOM launched Task Force Iron Gate (≈20 staff, Tampa) to disrupt Iran’s land-border and Caspian supply routes and disabled the St Kitts-flagged M/V Huda in the Gulf of Oman; CENTCOM’s tally since July is 147 vessels redirected, 5 disabled and 10 IRGC-linked tankers destroyed. UKMTO reported an unknown projectile hit an outbound tanker in Hormuz (crew safe); Iran says a tanker east of the strait hit a mine and caught fire (unverified). The IRGC said it had lifted its ballistic-missile range limit and warned of a “devastating response”. Debris from an intercepted Houthi projectile damaged an Aramco building in Riyadh (Saudi Energy Ministry via Al Jazeera). On Sunday Trump told CNN a return to war is “highly unlikely” if progress is made; the WSJ says his advisers are split (CBS, Al Jazeera, Fox, JPost; corroborated). Lloyd’s List counted 116 non-Iranian transits in the week to 25 October against 132 a week in mid-September (verified); no November counts exist. Rubio attends the G7 foreign ministers in Paris Monday–Tuesday. Russia–Ukraine. Russia launched 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles at Kyiv overnight 6–7 November; Zelensky said only 4 of the missiles were intercepted, and substations linking the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear plants were hit (Ukrainska Pravda, Kyiv Post via Radarcell; corroborated). US-hosted trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi run Tuesday–Wednesday (Al-Monitor/Reuters; verified). New Zealand. The preliminary count leaves the governing bloc with 67 of a projected 131 seats; National 29.3% and Labour 29.27% of the party vote, Greens 13.3%, ACT ≈11%, NZ First ≈9.8%, Opportunity ≈6% (ABC live blog at ≈98% counted); no one has claimed victory and Luxon has ruled out Opportunity on confidence and supply. US–China. Greer and Bessent pressed He Lifeng on agricultural purchases and rare earths on a 6 November call (USTR; verified); the truce is reported extended to 10 January 2027 (Newsquawk; single source). Israel. Herzog asked Eisenkot to form a government (67 recommendations against 46 for Netanyahu); the Knesset sits Tuesday (single source). US politics. Democrats are projected to hold at least 54 Senate seats with Mississippi and Alaska uncalled; Bloomberg (via Insurance Journal) puts ≈40% of pending US data-centre capacity in states whose governors-elect pledged pauses or stops, with 46 local ballot measures passed or on track, at least 17 of them outright bans; no federal measure has passed.
Monday indicative opens: none at filing. FX trades thinly from ≈08:00 AEDT and Globex/ICE reopen ≈10:00 AEDT; Friday’s SPI day session settled 9,016 (−62; ASX, verified), and the overnight SPI move was not obtained.
Market dashboard
Week to Friday 6 November — cross-asset change
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | +0.31% | −2.68% | AP via La Nación (corroborated: StockMarketWatch, Reuters, Investrade). Worst week since April 2025. 200-day 7,325.05 (WallStreetNumbers) |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,285.73 · 24,579.42 | −0.46% · +1.09% | −0.94% · −3.37% | AP (corroborated). Nasdaq’s fourth straight weekly fall |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | 2,754.11 · 26,989.99 | +0.89% · +1.35% | −2.05% · −4.91% | NDX FRED NASDAQ100 (verified; 5 Nov 26,629.81 confirmed). V031 mark |
| VIX · SOX | ≈25.6 · ≈9,390 | ≈−9% · +4.2% | ≈+32% · ≈−12% | VIX 25.58 / 25.63 (StockMarketWatch, TheStreet). SOX change corroborated, level derived. 5 Nov VIX 28.18 verified (FRED) |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | 648.33 · 25,820.36 | −1.00% · −1.92% | +0.24% · +0.01% | Corroborated (cappnotes, stl.news, investomine). TE’s DAX 25,778 is an intraday print |
| CAC 40 · FTSE 100 · FTSE MIB | 8,139.00 · 10,673.94 · 50,052.96 | −0.81% · −1.01% · −0.90% | +2.13% · −0.52% · ≈+1% | CAC/FTSE corroborated; MIB TE. IBEX 19,369.50 (−0.60%), SMI 14,796.50 (−1.14%) TE CFD |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 57,435 · 3,707.99 | −5.96% · −5.90% | ≈−11.2% · — | Nikkei corroborated (NewsOnJapan, TE); 1w vs 29 Oct 64,659 (derived). Worst week since March 2020 |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,649.18 · 4,054.28 | −1.10% · −1.44% | +1.39% · — | TE (single source) |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 24,481.86 · — | −1.27% · — | ≈+5.1% · — | TE, ABC −1.2% (corroborated). HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,059.69 · 39,702 | −6.02% · −4.51% | ≈−11.7% · −12.2% | KOSPI corroborated (Asiae, TE, ABC); nine-month low, circuit breaker. TAIEX TE (single source) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 81,028.02 · 25,030.35 | +2.17% · +2.01% | +8.8% · +8.6% | HDFC Sky (single source). Seventh straight gain |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 9,020.8 | −0.49% | +1.27% | Corroborated (CommBank/AAP, TE, ABC). Second close above 8,900: V006 closed WRONG. SPI Dec settle 9,016 (−62; ASX, verified) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official par 2y · 5y · 10y · 30y (Fri 6 Nov) | 4.51 · 4.64 · 4.86 · 5.26% | +5 · +5 · +2 · +1bp | 5 Nov 4.46 · 4.59 · 4.84 · 5.25 | Verified (Treasury). 2s10s 35bp, 5s30s 62bp. Week vs 30 Oct: vendor 10y ≈−7bp, 2y ≈−6bp (Investrade) |
| UST vendor 2y · 10y · 30y | 4.51 · 4.86 · 5.27% | +4.1 · +1.6bp · — | 10y low 4.81% intraday | TheStreet, Investrade (corroborated) |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.16 · ≈5.61% | ≈+1 · ≈0bp | 1w ≈−13 · −11bp | TE (single source) |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | ≈3.25 · ≈4.77 · ≈4.34% | ≈+1 · ≈−1 · 0bp | 1w ≈−7 · ≈−20 · −15bp | TE (single source). BTP–Bund ≈109bp |
| OAT–Bund | ≈151.8bp (TE-derived) | — | 156.0 (4 Nov, dedicated) | Dedicated series not obtained (robots-blocked this run). V025 unmarked |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.64 · ≈3.83% | ≈−12 · ≈−2bp | 1w ≈−13 · −1bp | TE (2.64–2.67 within the page). Four-month low |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | ≈4.82 · ≈4.70 · ≈5.00% | ≈−4 · ≈−3.5 · ≈−1.6bp | TE cash; futures YT Dec 95.345 (≈4.655%), XT Dec 95.010 (≈4.99%) (ASX settles; verified, yields derived) | |
| Canada 10y | ≈3.66% | ≈−1bp | 1w ≈−14bp | TE |
| US HY OAS | 348bp (5 Nov) | +16bp | 332 (4 Nov) · 344 (30 Oct) | Verified (FRED). Through 345bp. 6 Nov posts today |
| US IG · CCC OAS | 93 · 1,320bp (5 Nov) | +2 · +23bp | 94 · 1,327 (30 Oct) | Verified (FRED); 4 Nov IG 91, CCC 1,297 |
| FX | Fri | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈102.30 | ≈+0.7% | ≈+0.4% | TE, TheStreet (best day since June). TE text says ≈−0.3% on the week; weekly sign unresolved |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1151 · ≈1.3355 | ≈−0.6% · ≈−0.7% | ≈−0.1% · ≈−0.3% | TE (single source; euro stats box 1.1139) |
| USD/JPY | ≈158.47 | ≈+0.5% | ≈+0.6% | TE; RBA-implied 4pm 157.86 (derived) |
| AUD/USD | 0.6900 (RBA) | −1.63% (RBA) | −1.99% (RBA) | RBA 4pm verified. NY ≈0.6864 (TE), the weakest major on payrolls |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2401 (RBA) · ≈0.5546 | −0.14% (RBA) | −0.63% (RBA) | V023: 0 of 2, 1 pip above 1.2400. NY cross ≈1.2377 (derived) does not count. NZD lowest since April 2025 |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.4128 · ≈0.8203 | ≈+0.8% · ≈+0.5% | ≈+1.1% · ≈−0.6% | TE (single source) |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6724 · 6.7168 | ≈+0.1% | ≈+0.3% | Fix via FXStreet (single wire). Spot ≈440 pips strong of the fix. Monday fix ≈12:15 |
| USD/MXN · INR · KRW | ≈18.63 · ≈94.05 · ≈1,364 | ≈−0.7 · ≈−0.5 · ≈+0.4% | — · — · ≈+2.3% | TE (single source; MXN and INR direction suspect on a dollar-up day) |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent JANUARY (front) | $98.32 | +0.03% | −13.3% | TE, oilprice.com, investomine (corroborated; ICE settle page not fetched). Intraday $99.58 (Reuters). December expired 30 Oct |
| WTI DECEMBER | $90.83 | +0.34% | −12.8% | TE, Buckhead (corroborated). Brent–WTI $7.49 |
| Gold (spot) · silver · platinum | $4,070.10 · $51.88 · $1,536.90 | −0.42% · +0.2% · +1.0% | +5.0% · +6.1% · +7.0% | Kitco bid (verified); range $4,029.50–4,107.90. Silver, platinum TE. Gold/silver 78.5 |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $3.00 · €85.59 | +1.7% · −5.6% | +3.5% · −17.7% | TE, Buckhead. TTF two-week low; EU storage ≈74% vs 90% five-year |
| Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX | $13,955 · $13,780 · $6.22/lb | −1.1% · −1.8% · −0.5% | −3.4% · −3.3% · −3.7% | Westmetall (verified; stocks 316,675t, +42,675t on the week). COMEX TE CFD |
| Iron ore 62% · aluminium | $92.70 · $3,065.60 | −0.5% · +0.1% | +2.2% · +0.2% | TE (CFD; SGX not obtained) |
| Lithium carb. · uranium | CNY93,600 · $91.85 | +2.1% · −0.1% | 0.0% · −0.8% | TE |
| Bitcoin | $75,814 | −0.3% (24h) | −3.0% (7d) | CoinGecko ≈19:15 UTC Sun (verified). Weekend range $75,541–75,984 |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,228 · $88.98 · $1.15 · $696 | −0.3 · −0.8 · −0.7 · +0.1% | −1.6 · −6.1 · −7.3 · −2.2% | CoinGecko. Total cap $2.61tn; BTC dominance 58.3% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC −$411.9m (6 Nov) · ETH −$93.2m | BTC −$430.2m (5 Nov) | BTC ≈−$1.28bn | Farside via several outlets (corroborated). IBIT −$403.0m Friday. Weekly sum derived |
Conventions: 1d is Friday 6 November; 1w is the change since Friday 30 October. US cash closes are the AP tabulation (via La Nación, matched by three other outlets). The official par curve is the Treasury mark; vendor levels are on their own row. FX is vendor late New York unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two are never blended. Trading Economics change columns are not used; levels only, changes recomputed. “≈” marks a vendor, intraday, CFD-based or derived level; “—” means not obtained.
What is driving markets
1. The midterm verdict turns into an AI-capex verdict
The specifics are now clearer than they were on Thursday. Bloomberg, using Cleanview data, puts ≈40% of pending US data-centre capacity in states whose incoming governors pledged to stop or pause construction — Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico and Texas — with New York and Oregon extending existing pauses, Iowa and Nevada ending AI tax breaks, and 46 local ballot measures passed or on track, at least 17 of them outright bans (via Insurance Journal; single source on the numbers). No federal measure has passed. The US tape paused on Friday (SOX +4.2%, NDX +1.35%), but the forced-selling channel ran through Asia: the Nikkei −5.96% with SoftBank −20.8%, Advantest −19.6% and Kioxia −36.8% on the week (TE), the KOSPI −6.02% through a circuit breaker with foreigners selling ₩2.77tn, the TAIEX −12.2% on the week. Prime-broker data that predates the rout already showed the unwind: Goldman’s book cut net leverage 4.2pp to 73.4% in October with tech still 23.5% of exposure, the 90th percentile over five years, and Morgan Stanley reported the largest hedge-fund exposure cut since 2016 (Hedgeweek; corroborated). Read here as positioning in the AI-hardware chain being cleared outside US hours, not as a verdict on US earnings: FactSet has Q3 S&P EPS +31.4% with 84% beating and a forward P/E of 17.7×, against 19.8× over five years.
2. Oil is pricing the politics of the war, not its physical flows
Brent fell 13.3% on the week to $98.32, almost all of it in the two sessions around the midterms, and has spent Thursday and Friday recovering as the deal read faded. The weekend moved the politics again, mostly toward escalation: limited US strikes on Friday, Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday to close land and Caspian routes, a disabled blockade-runner in the Gulf of Oman, a projectile strike on a tanker in Hormuz and an IRGC statement lifting its missile range limit (CBS, Al Jazeera, Fox; corroborated). Trump’s Sunday line that full war is “highly unlikely” if progress is made, and Iran’s nuclear proposal now with Washington via Qatar, keep the diplomatic path open. Physical flows are constrained but not collapsing: Lloyd’s List counted 116 non-Iranian transits in the week to 25 October (three-week average 121 against 132 in mid-September), and Vortexa has Middle East exports at 17.1mb/d in October against 18.9mb/d in September (oilprice.com). OPEC+’s core seven held December targets on 1 November; the full group meets 29 November to set 2027 quotas. The CFTC shows little speculative length to unwind: NYMEX WTI managed money +21.7k net, −9.4k on the week (verified, net derived).
3. The term-premium regime is under test from the front, not the long end
The official par 10-year printed 4.84% on Thursday, below the 4.85% leg of the written regime-change test for the first time, then 4.86% on Friday after payrolls (Treasury; verified). Oil never got under $90 (Brent $98.29 and $98.32), so the test never had both legs on the same day and the regime tag is kept. Payrolls did the work in the front end: 2-year par +5bp to 4.51%, 2s10s 35bp, CME December hike 67% → 77% and 46bp of hikes priced through December 2027 from 39bp (TheStreet; corroborated). The leveraged-fund short across the six Treasury contracts grew to 7.25m on 3 November (CFTC TFF; verified, net derived) — the bulk of the addition in the 5-year (−238k) — and SOFR shorts rose to 2.60m. Supply is $125bn this week (3-year $58bn Monday, 10-year $42bn Tuesday, 30-year $25bn Thursday, US dates; Treasury sb0678; verified), wrapped around Tuesday’s CPI and a bond-market holiday on Wednesday.
4. AI-capex financing: the bond market keeps writing the cheques
It kept writing them last week, at a rising price, and Thursday’s rout reached the spread data for the first time. FRED HY OAS widened 16bp to 348bp on 5 November and CCC 23bp to 1,320bp, while IG moved only 2bp to 93bp (FRED; verified). The week’s supply was heavy and expensive: Oracle $10bn at 7.000–8.650% coupons (≈145–175bp over Treasuries), Alphabet €6bn in seven tranches, Meta $15bn at 5.850–7.500% (its 2031 at T+110) plus a €9bn euro debut (FourWeekMBA citing SEC term sheets; corroborated). Goldman puts year-to-date hyperscaler debt at $296bn against a $250bn full-year forecast and $440bn in 2027 (via MarketWatch; single source). Secondary data now show the price of that supply: AI-linked IG ≈148bp against ≈77bp for other IG (BofA, 5 Nov), Nvidia 5-year CDS ≈139bp, up 76% in a month, CoreWeave 5-year CDS above 1,000bp (Reuters) and its 9.75% 2031 notes at a 16.33% yield on TRACE on Friday (all single source except the Reuters CoreWeave line). Six listed neoclouds have $32.1bn of principal due through 2030 against $16.1bn of cash (single source).
Central bank watch
Pricing for the 9 December FOMC, by source and time
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp) | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP | Dec +25bp ≈77–78% (CME 77%, LSEG 78%, Fri close) from 67% Thu; 46bp priced through Dec 2027. Blackout from 28 Nov | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.85% | +25bp 3 Nov, 6–3; tightening line dropped | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 | IB settles 6 Nov: Dec 4.85% · Jan 4.85% · Feb 4.87% · Mar 4.88% (derived: ≈unpriced Dec, ≈8% Feb, ≈12% Mar). Hunter today 09:30 | Hiked, now on hold |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | Held 29 Oct | Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Lagarde (Sat): “significant changes” needed to alter her expected course; Lane: “gather the information between now and December”. Oct HICP 4.0% | Hawkish hold |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%) | Fri 18 Dec (BoJ; verified) | Reuters poll: many expect 1.50% in December. SoO Tue 10:50. Friday’s −6% Nikkei is a reason for caution (house reading) | Hawkish hold |
| BoE | 4.00% | +25bp 5 Nov, 8–1 (Mann for +50bp) (BoE; verified) | Thu 17 Dec 23:00 | December ≈50% (InvestingLive; single source); three more hikes priced by Nov 2027. Pill: path “more uncertain” into spring | Hiking |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 | Wed 9 Dec 12:00 + MPS | Dec hike ≈60% (TE) or “below 50%” (TMGM), both pre-election. Post-election OIS not obtained | Tightening bias, fading |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct | 9 or 10 Dec (sources conflict) | Summary of Deliberations Wed ≈09:30 AEDT | Hiking, careful |
| SNB | 0.00% | Held 24 Sep | Thu 10 Dec | Hike bets toward mid-2027 (carried) | On hold |
| Riksbank · Norges | 2.00% · 4.50% | Riks +25bp 4 Nov (Riksbank; verified), first move since Sep 2025 · Norges held 5 Nov | Riks Wed 16 Dec · Norges Thu 17 Dec 20:00 | Riksbank minutes Tue 19:30 (vote split). Nordea: hold Dec, 2.25% Feb | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct; FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov | LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00 | 6 Nov fix 6.7168; spot ≈440 pips stronger (derived). Still leaning against CNY strength | Supporting equities, leaning on CNY |
| Emerging markets | |||||
| Brazil (BCB) | 13.75% | Held 4 Nov, unanimous; ends five cuts | Copom Wed 9 Dec · minutes Tue 22:00 | Focus had 13.50% (carried) | Pause |
| Mexico (Banxico) · Peru (BCRP) | 6.25% · 4.25% | Banxico −25bp 5 Nov (3–2 per No. 044; TE shows 2–1) · BCRP decides Thu 12 Nov | Banxico 17 Dec · BCRP Thu | Banxico consensus had been a hold | Easing |
| Korea (BoK) · India (RBI) | 3.00% · 5.50% | BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct | BoK Thu 26 Nov 12:00 · RBI 4 Dec | KRW ≈1,364 after five days of foreign equity selling | Mixed |
Fed. A 165k print with +84k of revisions and a 4.1% unemployment rate removes the labour-market case for skipping December; the remaining question is inflation, and CPI arrives Wednesday 00:30 AEDT with nowcasts at +0.24% headline and +0.21% core (Cleveland Fed) against Newsquawk’s +0.3% / +0.2%. Twelve Fed speakers are listed this week, including Waller (BoE Watchers, Tuesday 20:00 AEDT), Bowman, Barr, Jefferson, Williams, Logan and Hammack (Fed calendar for Board members; regional dates not confirmed). FOMC minutes are Thursday 19 November 06:00 AEDT. Chair Warsh’s October line — conditions “tighter” but he was “unwilling and unable to call them tight” — is the bar the data have to clear (NYT via GV Wire).
RBA. Friday’s IB settles price a flat path into February, with a small lean to a hike by March and no cuts (ASX; verified settles, implied rates derived); centralbank.watch’s table shows a higher 11% for February and 30% for March but conflicts with its own summary box, so the ASX derivation is used. Assistant Governor Hunter speaks at the UBS conference at 09:30 today, Baker on Thursday, and the minutes and Bullock follow on 17 November (RBA Coming Up; verified). A 1.63% fall in AUD/USD on the RBA table on Friday is the biggest one-day move since the hike.
ECB and BoE. Lagarde said on Saturday it would take “significant changes” to alter her expected course and left December open (Econostream); the euro fell ≈0.6% on the dollar’s payrolls rally. The BoE’s official minutes confirm 8–1 with Mann for 50bp (BoE; verified; InvestingLive’s “9–0” headline was wrong); Bailey speaks Tuesday 04:25 AEDT and UK Q3 GDP prints Thursday 18:00.
Regional briefs
United States
The labour market re-tightened just as the AI trade cracked. Payrolls +165k (August revised to 186k, September to 60k), unemployment 4.1%, AHE 3.1% y/y, participation 61.9% (BLS; verified); UMich prelim 51.0 with one-year expectations 4.3% (single source). Equities: S&P −2.7% on the week, Nasdaq −3.4%, energy −12% (TheStreet, Reuters). Politics: Democrats projected at ≥54 Senate seats and 251–268 House seats (CBS; projections), with the new Congress sitting in January; the current CR runs to 11 December and Goldman expects another stopgap (Fortune, IBTimes; corroborated). State data-centre measures are the live policy channel; a Sanders/Ocasio-Cortez federal moratorium bill exists but has not moved. This week: 3/10/30-year auctions, CPI Tuesday, Veterans Day Wednesday (bond market closed, equities open), claims and PPI Thursday–Friday; Cisco and Applied Materials report Thursday.
Euro area
Europe held most of its week despite Friday. Stoxx 600 648.33 (−1.00% Friday, +0.24% on the week), CAC +2.13% on the week, DAX flat (corroborated). German September IP +0.7% m/m against 0.0% (TE). The ECB’s message did not soften: Lagarde (Saturday) said it would take “significant changes” to alter her course; Lane wants to “gather the information between now and December”; Schnabel and Žigman leaned to a December move (Econostream; single source). France: the National Assembly rejected the revenue part of the 2027 finance bill 458–0 on 4 November, so the spending part was never examined and the Senate receives the government’s original text in December; if the joint committee fails, the options are Article 49.3 or ordinances after the 70-day limit on 17 December (Euronews, LCP; verified). The 17 November date carried in No. 044 is moot (§13). Rating reviews Friday: Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy.
United Kingdom
After the hike, the Bank is managing expectations of a sequence. The BoE’s minutes confirm the 8–1 vote with Mann for 50bp (BoE; verified). Pill on Friday: the future path “will become more uncertain” into spring, when evidence on second-round effects arrives, and the risks to the three hikes priced run both ways (PA; single source). Bailey speaks Tuesday 04:25 AEDT. The FTSE 100 fell 1.01% Friday to 10,673.94 (−0.52% on the week; corroborated); gilts recovered from two-month lows after payrolls, with the 10-year ≈5.16% (−13bp on the week) and 30-year ≈5.61% (TE). GBP/USD ≈1.3355 (−0.7% Friday). Q3 GDP prints Thursday 18:00 AEDT with no clean consensus (0.4% TE, 0.7% Yardeni); the labour market is Tuesday 17 November.
Japan
Tokyo had its worst week since March 2020. Nikkei −5.96% Friday to 57,435 and more than 9% on the week; TOPIX −5.90% to 3,707.99 with every sector down (NewsOnJapan, TE). The losses sat in the AI chain: SoftBank −20.8%, Advantest −19.6%, Tokyo Electron −13.2%, Kioxia −36.8% on the week (TE; single source). Toyota raised its full-year net profit forecast ≈10% to ¥3.57tn; September cash earnings rose 4.6% y/y. The JGB 10-year fell ≈12bp Friday to ≈2.64%, a four-month low; USD/JPY ≈158.5 after payrolls. The BoJ’s ETF sales target change (to ¥860bn) is single-source and awaits confirmation. The Summary of Opinions from the 29–30 October meeting is Tuesday 10:50 AEDT; Q3 GDP is Monday 16 November 10:50. A December hike is still the Reuters-poll modal call; a market in this state makes it harder (house reading).
China & Hong Kong
China data replace China flows as the input this week. Hang Seng −1.27% Friday to 24,481.86 after Thursday’s +3.7%, still ≈+5% on the week (derived); Shanghai −1.10% to 3,649.18 (+1.39% on the week, ending a six-week losing run), CSI 300 −1.44%, Shenzhen −2.57% (TE; single source). AI names led the fall (Z.AI −10.6%, MiniMax −8.8%, SMIC −4.9%). October FX reserves rose to $3.405tn. The PBoC fixed at 6.7168 on Friday with spot ≈440 pips stronger (FXStreet; single wire); the FX RRR rises to 6% from 15 November. Calendar: CPI/PPI today 12:30 AEDT (CPI consensus 0.8% y/y; PPI consensus and even its sign differ across sources), trade Tuesday ≈14:00 (surplus consensus $126.5bn per Newsquawk), credit ≈Friday, activity Monday 16 November. US–China: Greer and Bessent pressed He Lifeng on farm purchases and rare earths (USTR; verified).
Emerging Asia & LatAm
North Asia sold, India bought. KOSPI −6.02% to 5,059.69 with the circuit breaker and a KOSDAQ sidecar; foreigners −₩2.77tn, institutions +₩1.70tn, retail +₩601bn (Asiae; corroborated index, single-source flows); Samsung and SK hynix closes conflict within the source. KRW ≈1,364. TAIEX −4.51% to 39,702, its lowest since 30 April and a fourth weekly loss (TE). Sensex +2.17% and Nifty +2.01%, +8.6–8.8% on the week; foreign investors bought ≈₹15,000 crore on Thursday, the most in about six years (HDFC Sky; single source). Peru’s BCRP decides Thursday (4.25%). Banxico’s surprise cut to 6.25% left USD/MXN ≈18.63; Copom minutes are Tuesday.
Australia & New Zealand
RBA: flat into February, Hunter first
Cash rate 4.85% after the 3 November hike (6–3); the November SoMP was released with the decision on 3 November (RBA; verified). Friday’s 30-day interbank settles (ASX; verified, implied rates derived as 100 minus price): Nov 95.180 (4.82%), Dec 95.150 (4.85%), Jan 95.150 (4.85%), Feb 95.130 (4.87%), Mar 95.120 (4.88%). Against Thursday’s settles February eased from 4.905% to 4.87% and March from 4.920% to 4.88% — about two-thirds of the February hike premium came out on a day the US repriced its own hike higher, which reads as an Australian growth discount after the AI sell-off and the AUD fall (house reading). Trading Economics’ line that a cut is “fully priced by year-end” is not supported by the strip and is not used. Diary (RBA Coming Up; verified): Assistant Governor Hunter, UBS Australasia Conference, today 09:30; Board member Baker at ARCA Thursday 10:30; Bullock at ASIC and the minutes on Tuesday 17 November; Fry-McKibbin at CAMA on 20 November.
Markets: banks up, miners down, index just below 9,065
Equities. The ASX 200 fell 0.49% (−44.3) to 9,020.8 on Friday (CommBank/AAP, TE, ABC; corroborated), +1.27% on the week and a second straight weekly gain; All Ords 9,144.7. Breadth was poor: 42 risers, 154 fallers (ABC). Materials −3% (BHP −2.3%, Rio −2.0%), tech −1.4%, discretionary −0.7%; staples +1%, financials +0.5% with NAB +2.7%, Westpac +1.5%, CBA +0.9%. Macquarie −3.7%, Goodman −3.2%; NextDC added 3.6% after Thursday’s 51% stake-building squeeze (TE, ABC; single source on movers). V006 is closed WRONG (§08). The SPI December contract’s day session settled 9,016 (−62; ASX; verified); the night-session move after the S&P’s +0.3% was not obtained. Rates. YT Dec 95.345 (≈4.655%) and XT Dec 95.010 (≈4.99%), both firmer (ASX; verified, yields derived); TE cash 3y 4.70%, 10y 5.00%, near the lowest since late August. AUD. 0.6900 on the RBA table (−1.63%), AUD/JPY 108.92, TWI 64.0 (RBA; verified); New York closed ≈0.6864.
Data, property and the China link
The week’s domestic data are second-tier: building approvals today 11:30, Westpac consumer sentiment Tuesday 10:30 (October 80.4) and the NAB survey Tuesday 11:30 (September confidence −13, conditions −1), lending indicators Wednesday (ABS, Westpac; verified dates). The big prints are next week: WPI Wednesday 18 November and October Labour Force Thursday 19 November (ABS; verified — not 13 November). Property: Cotality’s final combined-capitals clearance rate for the week to 1 November was 40.7%, the lowest since April 2020, against 65.8% a year earlier (Cotality; verified); 1,826 auctions were scheduled for the 7–8 November weekend and the preliminary result was not obtained. China link: China CPI/PPI at 12:30 today and trade Tuesday; iron ore 62% ended Friday at $92.70 (+2.2% on the week, TE CFD), LME copper cash $13,955 (−3.4%) with LME stocks up 42,675t on the week (Westmetall; verified); gold $4,070 supports the miners that sold on Friday.
New Zealand
The preliminary count of Saturday’s general election gives National–ACT–NZ First 67 of a projected 131 seats, a one-seat majority over the 66 needed, with the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc on 57 and Opportunity on 7 (Al Jazeera, ThePrint/Reuters; corroborated). National (29.3%) and Labour (29.27%) are level on the party vote at ≈98% of the election-night count (ABC). Uncounted votes are put at ≈14% (Al Jazeera), and special votes have historically favoured the left, so the right bloc’s margin is at risk; the official result is due Friday 27 November, with the writ returned 3 December. The government continues in caretaker mode; Luxon has ruled out Opportunity on confidence and supply, and analyst David Farrar calls a Labour-led government “very unlikely”. NZD/USD fell ≈0.9% on Friday to ≈0.5546, its lowest since April 2025, before the vote. The NZX 50 fell 0.66% to 13,998.5, a day after a record close (TE). RBNZ: 9 December; inflation expectations Thursday 13:00.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.85% (3 Nov, 6–3) | 4.60% | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 · minutes 17 Nov 11:30 |
| 30-day IB: Feb · Mar 2027 (6 Nov) | 4.87% · 4.88% | 4.905% · 4.920% (5 Nov) | Daily (ASX settles) |
| Westpac sentiment · NAB confidence | 80.4 (Oct) · −13 (Sep) | conditions −1 | Tue 10 Nov 10:30 · 11:30 |
| Trade balance (Sep) | A$2.83bn | A$0.18bn | Oct: Thu 3 Dec 11:30 |
| Labour force (Oct) | — | Sep: −39k, 4.7%, participation 66.8% | Thu 19 Nov 11:30 |
| Wage price index (Q3) | — | 0.8% q/q · 3.2% y/y | Wed 18 Nov 11:30 |
| Monthly CPI (Oct) | — | Thu 26 Nov 11:30 | |
| Auction clearance (combined capitals) | 40.7% (w/e 1 Nov, final) | 43.6% | Preliminary 7–8 Nov not obtained |
House views & tactical framework
Closed. V006 (ASX 200 underweight, Low) — WRONG. Opened 7 September at 9,005.9; the pre-committed stop was two consecutive closes above 8,900. Thursday 5 November closed 9,065.1 (1 of 2) and Friday 6 November closed 9,020.8 (corroborated; 2 of 2). Reference move +0.17% against the view. As written on Friday, the stop fired on the Sydney–New York timing gap — Thursday’s +2.6% preceded the US rout — and it is scored as written. Not reopened.
What moved. V023: RBA table 1.2401 (verified), 1 pip above the 1.2400 stop; count 0 of 2; New York ≈1.2377 does not count. +0.70% against ≈1.2315; RIGHT line 199 pips away. Today’s 16:00 print can make it 1 of 2. V031: Nasdaq-100 26,989.99 (FRED; verified), 7.53% in favour of 29,187.55, 14.6% below the 30,932 close line; the 5 November derived mark (26,629.81) is confirmed exactly by FRED. V017: HY 348bp, IG 93bp, CCC 1,320bp on 5 November (FRED; verified); HY +16bp in favour; the mirror is 43bp away and the exit 270bp away. V025: unmarked — the dedicated series was robots-blocked; TE-derived ≈151.8bp is not a mark. Standing action for Tuesday. V024: Brent January $98.32 (corroborated), ≈$13.81 above the band top; contract month on Thursday’s $98.29 is now confirmed as January (December expired 30 October).
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Unmarked this edition (last dedicated 156.0bp, 4 Nov; TE-derived ≈151.8bp 6 Nov). Assembly rejected the budget’s revenue part 458–0; Senate in December; 49.3 or ordinances after 17 Dec | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp. CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED HY 348bp (+16), CCC 1,320bp (+23), IG 93bp (+2) on 5 Nov — verified. AI-linked IG ≈148bp vs ≈77bp; CoreWeave CDS above 1,000bp | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (270bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (43bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | 26,989.99 on 6 Nov (FRED; verified): 7.53% in favour. State data-centre pauses cover ≈40% of pending capacity (Bloomberg); Nvidia 17 Nov | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (14.6% above). No profit-taking rule was written, so none is applied |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2401 on the RBA 4pm table, 6 Nov (verified), +0.70% against ≈1.2315. NZ result unresolved until 27 Nov; AUD the weakest major on payrolls; RBA Feb premium cut | PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (1 pip; 0 of 2; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (199 pips) |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | January $98.29 (5 Nov) and $98.32 (6 Nov). Weekend escalation (strikes, Iron Gate, Hormuz tanker strike) against Trump’s “highly unlikely” full war | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$13.8 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
| Closed this edition | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | — | CLOSED WRONG, 6 Nov: 9,005.9 → 9,020.8 (+0.17% against); closes 9,065.1 and 9,020.8 above 8,900 | Fired on its pre-committed condition. Not reopened |
Ledger. Five open; 26 closed — 3 right, 16 wrong, 7 scratch; trailing hit rate 3 of 19 decided (all closed views; fewer than 20 decided). Next-session actions: today’s RBA 4pm print (V023, 1 pip); the OAT–Bund dedicated series for 5–9 November (V025, unmarked); FRED 6 November rows (V017); FRED NASDAQ100 9 November (V031); a primary ICE settle for Brent (V024).
Portfolio-level read. The book is now three stress views (V017, V025, V031), one FX carry view sitting on its stop (V023) and a residual oil call (V024). The week’s events line up behind the stress views: credit moved on Thursday, and CPI plus $125bn of supply can extend it. No new view is opened: an Australian equity re-entry would be a view reopened on the session after its stop, which the ledger rules out; a duration long into CPI against a 7.25m-contract short is tempting but has no edge before the print (house judgement).
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The “what changes the view” column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project’s views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — data as of Tue 3 Nov, released Fri 6 Nov (verified; nets derived) | |||
| Treasuries — TFF leveraged funds net (six contracts) | −7,249,305 | −372,034 w/w | 2y −1.45m · 5y −2.32m (−238k) · 10y −2.26m · ultra-10 −258k · bond −166k · ultra-bond −796k. Reconciles to −6,877,271 on 27 Oct. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure |
| SOFR-3M · Fed funds — LF net | −2.60m · +240k | −68k · −274k | A sharp cut in a position that gains if rates fall, ahead of payrolls |
| E-mini S&P — LF · legacy non-comm. | −372.3k · −129.4k | +28.3k · +5.0k | Shorts trimmed into the rout |
| Nasdaq-100 — LF (consolidated) · legacy (mini) | +6.1k · +42.9k | +11.7k · −6.0k | Leveraged funds added length into 3 Nov and were long into Thursday |
| JPY — LF · legacy | −14.8k · +102.3k | −0.2k · +0.7k | Opposite signs; legacy long held into the December BoJ |
| AUD · NZD — LF · legacy | +50.1k / −23.2k · −129.5k / −60.0k | Opposite signs on AUD; both short NZD | |
| EUR · GBP · CAD · MXN — LF | −78.6k · +26.7k · −86.3k · +71.4k | Legacy: −157.8k · −59.8k · −41.8k · +18.0k. ICE dollar index legacy +14.2k | |
| Gold · silver · copper — legacy non-comm. | +179.5k · +21.3k · +37.7k | −6.9k · +1.5k · −10.6k | Copper length cut before the data-centre scare |
| WTI (NYMEX) — managed money | +21.7k | −9.4k | Light; ICE WTI MM −11.8k. ICE Brent not in CFTC data |
| Flows | |||
| ICI money-market assets (4 Nov) | $8.016tn | +$114.5bn | Institutional +$102.3bn (ICI; verified) |
| LSEG Lipper global funds (w/e 4 Nov) | Equity +$38.6bn · MMF +$172.7bn | MMF largest since Apr 2020 | Seventh straight equity inflow; bonds +$9.9bn; tech +$0.6bn (Lipper; corroborated). Not EPFR |
| BofA Flow Show (w/e 4 Nov) | Cash +$140bn | 7th-largest week on record | Reuters via Investing (corroborated). Equity, bond and B&B figures not obtained |
| ICI long-term funds (w/e 28 Oct) | +$9.36bn | Equity +$11.07bn | 4 Nov week due ≈11 Nov |
| Spot BTC ETFs (2–6 Nov) | −$1,281.7m | Worst week since June | Daily: −398.6 · −115.6 · +74.6 · −430.2 · −411.9 (TFTC; corroborated, sum derived) |
| Prime brokers (October) | GS net leverage 73.4% (−4.2pp) | MS exposure −7.8% | Largest MS cut since 2016; tech 23.5% of GS book (Hedgeweek; corroborated). Pre-rout |
| Sentiment & vol | |||
| AAII (4 Nov) | Bulls 34.1 · Bears 48.4 | Spread −14.3 | Taken before Thursday (AAII; verified) |
| Fear & Greed (replica, 6 Nov) | 17 · extreme fear | 31 on 4 Nov | Seven of eight components in fear (thetrading.tools) |
| VIX/VIX3M · SKEW · put/call | 1.042 · 153.6 · 1.06 | Second day backwardated | SKEW 98th percentile since 1990; total put/call 5 Nov (thetrading.tools; corroborated) |
| Breadth (6 Nov) | 58.8% above 200d | 69.4% on 4 Nov | historyofmarket (single source) |
| BofA FMS (Oct; Nov ≈17 Nov) | Cash 3.9% · equities net 44% OW | Long semis most crowded (45%) | Top tail risk: disorderly bond yields (31%); AI bubble 23% (corroborated) |
| Valuation, earnings & strategists | |||
| FactSet (6 Nov) | Q3 EPS +31.4% · 84% beat | Fwd P/E 17.7× (5-yr 19.8) | CY26 +33.3%, CY27 +16.1%; fwd EPS $415.82; bottom-up target 9,306.85 (FactSet; verified) |
| S&P targets | BofA 7,400 · GS/JPM 8,000 · Citi/UBS 8,100 | no post-rout revisions found | Wilson: dip toward 7,100, then 8,000 (1 Nov); Hartnett “tactically risk-off until mid-Nov” (23 Oct) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 9 November | ||||||
| Mon | 09:30 | Sun 17:30 | RBA Asst Gov Hunter — UBS Australasia Conference | M | ||
| Mon | ≈10:00 | Sun 18:00 | Globex / ICE reopen — first oil and equity-futures read on the Gulf weekend | Brent $98.32 | H | |
| Mon | 11:30 · ≈12:15 | Sun 19:30 · 20:15 | AU building approvals (Sep) · PBoC fix | 6.7168 | L | |
| Mon | 12:30 | Sun 20:30 | China CPI · PPI (Oct) y/y | 0.8% · conflicting | 0.9% · 5.0% | H |
| Mon | 16:00 | 00:00 | RBA 4pm table — V023 (0 of 2, 1 pip) · Eurogroup / ECOFIN · G7 foreign ministers, Paris (to Tue) | 1.2401 | H | |
| Tuesday 10 November | ||||||
| Tue | 00:40 · 04:25 | Mon 08:40 · 12:25 | Fed Bowman · BoE Bailey | M | ||
| Tue | 05:00 | Mon 13:00 | UST 3-year auction ($58bn) | M | ||
| Tue | 10:30 · 10:50 · 11:30 | Mon 18:30–19:30 | Westpac sentiment (Nov) · BoJ Summary of Opinions · JP current account · NAB business (Oct) | — · — · ¥3.10tn · — | 80.4 · — · ¥3.35tn · −13 | M |
| Tue | ≈14:00 | Mon 22:00 | China trade (Oct) — surplus | $126.5bn (Newsquawk) | $133.5bn | H |
| Tue | 19:30 · 20:00 · 22:00 | 03:30 · 04:00 · 06:00 | Riksbank minutes · Fed Waller (BoE Watchers, London) · NFIB · Copom minutes · Knesset sits | M | ||
| Tue–Wed | — | — | US–Russia–Ukraine talks, Abu Dhabi (Witkoff, Kushner) | H | ||
| Wednesday 11 November — US CPI; Veterans Day (US bond market closed, equities open) | ||||||
| Wed | 00:30 | Tue 08:30 | US CPI (Oct) — headline m/m · core m/m (most y/y figures not published) | +0.3% · +0.2% (Newsquawk; nowcast 0.24 · 0.21) | +0.6% · +0.3% | H |
| Wed | 05:00 | Tue 13:00 | UST 10-year auction ($42bn) | H | ||
| Wed | ≈08:05 | Tue AMC | CoreWeave Q3 · Sea · Petrobras | Rev $3.54bn | M | |
| Wed | ≈09:30 · 11:30 | Tue | BoC Summary of Deliberations · AU lending indicators · OPEC MOMR (time TBC) · DE final CPI 18:00 | DE 2.8% flash | L | |
| Thursday 12 – Saturday 14 November | ||||||
| Thu | 10:30 · 13:00 | Wed 18:30 · 21:00 | RBA MPB member Baker (ARCA) · RBNZ inflation expectations (Q4) | 2.34% | M | |
| Thu | 18:00 | 02:00 | UK GDP Q3 prelim q/q · Sep m/m | 0.4–0.7% (no clean consensus) | 0.5% | H |
| Thu | day | — | Peru BCRP decision · India CPI · Russia CPI | Russia 7.0% | 4.25% · — · 7.1% | L |
| Fri | 00:30 | Thu 08:30 | US initial jobless claims | 189k | M | |
| Fri | 05:00 | Thu 13:00 | UST 30-year auction ($25bn) | H | ||
| Fri | ≈08:05 | Thu AMC | Cisco · Applied Materials · Nebius · Cerebras | CSCO rev $18.11bn | H | |
| Fri | day · 21:00 | 05:00 | China credit (Oct) · EZ Q3 GDP 2nd est. · IEA OMR · EU leaders (Dublin) | EZ 0.4% q/q | M | |
| Sat | 00:30 | Fri 08:30 | US PPI (Oct) m/m · y/y · core m/m | +0.4% · 6.6% · +0.3% | +1.3% · 6.3% · +0.7% | H |
| Sat | early · 11:00 | Fri | Fitch on Germany · S&P on Italy · Fed Jefferson · CFTC COT (10 Nov positions) | M | ||
| The sessions after — into the December decisions | ||||||
| 16–20 Nov | — | — | Japan Q3 GDP (16th 10:50) · China activity (16th) · RBA minutes + Bullock (17th) · UK labour, ZEW, US retail sales (17th) · BofA FMS (≈17th) · Nvidia Q3 FY27 (≈08:20 Wed 18th) · AU WPI (18th) · FOMC minutes (06:00 Thu 19th) · AU labour force (Thu 19th 11:30) · China LPR (20th) | H | ||
| 23–29 Nov | — | — | S&P France review (week of 23rd; unconfirmed) · AU monthly CPI (26th) · BoK (26th) · Thanksgiving (26th) · NZ official election result (27th) · Fed blackout from 28th · OPEC+ full meeting, 2027 quotas (29th) | M | ||
| 8–11 Dec | — | — | RBA Tue 8th 14:30 · RBNZ Wed 9th 12:00 · BoC (9th or 10th) · FOMC 06:00 Thu 10th + SEP · SNB (10th) · US Nov CPI (00:30 Fri 11th) · US funding deadline (11th) | Fed ≈77–78% hike | H | |
| 16–18 Dec | — | — | Riksbank (16th) · Norges, BoE (17th) · France 70-day budget limit (17th) · ECB 00:15 Fri 18th · BoJ (Fri 18th) | H | ||
Consensus figures are from Newsquawk, Trading Economics and Yardeni calendars as of 6–8 November and can shift; where they disagree, the range or “conflicting” is shown. Auction sizes and dates are from the Treasury refunding statement (sb0678). Board-member Fed speaker times are from the Fed calendar; regional presidents are listed for the week without confirmed dates. Importance ratings are this desk’s judgement. AEDT = EST + 16h until US DST resumes in March.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The AI-capex discount keeps moving into credit | FRED 6 Nov rows today; CoreWeave Tue US; Nebius, Cisco Thu; Nvidia 17 Nov; state data-centre pauses | HY through 360bp; CCC toward its 2020 highs; NDX toward 25,000; another leg in KOSPI and TAIEX | V017; V031 (existing; new index puts expensive with VIX ≈26 and SKEW 98th pct) | |
| 2 | CPI re-prices the hike into a record bond short | CPI Wed 00:30 AEDT; 10-year auction Wed 05:00 | Dec hike ≈77–78% (CME, LSEG) | Hot: 2-year above 4.60%, 10-year toward 5%. Soft: a squeeze against 7.25m LF shorts | 2-year options; no duration view before the print |
| 3 | The Gulf escalates from strikes to a renewed campaign | Iron Gate enforcement; IRGC response; tanker strikes in Hormuz; G7 Paris | Strikes 60% · deal 10% (Eurasia Group, 5 Nov) | Brent $110–125 (Eurasia); TTF higher with storage ≈74%; BoE adverse case | V024’s residual call; energy vs consumer pairs |
| 4 | A deal lands and oil gaps lower | Iran’s proposal via Qatar; Trump’s “highly unlikely” full war | Brent toward the high $80s; energy equities; breakevens lower | No view; V024’s band would come into range | |
| 5 | Forced deleveraging in North Asian hardware | KOSPI circuit breaker Friday; foreigners −₩2.77tn; Nikkei −9% on the week | KOSPI and TAIEX through their spring lows; KRW weaker; BoJ December in doubt | Avoid adding North Asian hardware; KRW calls vs USD | |
| 6 | Long-end supply into a holiday week | $125bn 3/10/30-year auctions; bond market shut Wed | FMS top tail risk (31%) | Tails push the 30-year back above 5.35%; regime re-confirmed from the long end | Low duration; payer spreads |
| 7 | AUD/NZD breaks its stop on the NZ count | RBA 4pm today and Tue; special votes; result 27 Nov | V023 stopped (scores RIGHT); a hung parliament weakens NZD instead | V023 | |
| 8 | France: budget and rating channel | Senate reading in December; 49.3 or ordinances after 17 Dec; S&P review (unconfirmed) | OAT–Bund back through 161.8bp then 171.8bp | V025 (High) | |
| 9 | Yen squeeze toward the December BoJ | Summary of Opinions Tue; legacy specs +102.3k yen | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind adds to equity selling | Short-dated USD/JPY puts | |
| 10 | China data disappoint into a support pause | CPI/PPI today; trade Tue; credit Fri; activity 16 Nov | Iron ore below $89; ASX materials; AUD crosses | Short iron ore vs copper | |
| 11 | Crypto outflows deepen | Spot BTC ETFs −$1.28bn last week; Binance hack aftermath | BTC through $74,000 then $70,000 | No view open |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | 7,353.73 (5 Nov) · 7,325.05 (200-day) · 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson) | 7,600 · 7,657.80 (20-day) · 7,679.45 (50-day) | MAs WallStreetNumbers, 6 Nov (verified) |
| Nasdaq-100 | 26,989.99 | 26,629.81 (5 Nov) · 26,000 · 25,000 | 27,989.82 (2 Nov) · 28,437.17 (4 Nov) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes) | FRED close (verified) |
| UST 10y · 2y (par) | 4.86% · 4.51% | 4.84 (5 Nov) · 4.80 · 4.46 (5 Nov) | 4.90 (4 Nov) · 4.95 · 5.05 (28 Oct) · 4.60 | Regime test: par 10y below 4.85% with Brent under $90 |
| OAT–Bund | unmarked (156.0bp, 4 Nov) | 153.4 (29 Oct) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 161.8 (3 Nov) · 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct, one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | ≈4.70 · ≈5.00% | 4.65 · 4.95 | 4.76 · 5.04 (5 Nov) | Our reading; futures-implied 4.655 · 4.99 |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈102.30 · ≈1.1151 · ≈158.47 | 101.43 · 1.1100 · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1227 · 158.7–160 | Our reading |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.6900 · 1.2401 (RBA) | 0.6850 · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes) | 0.6951 (CBA) · 0.7014 (5 Nov RBA) · 1.2600 (V023 RIGHT, two closes) | RBA 4pm table is the mark |
| Brent (Jan) | $98.32 | $94.62 (4 Nov) · $88 · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $99.58 (Fri high) · $103.60 (3 Nov) · $113.43 (30 Oct) | Reopens ≈10:00 AEDT |
| Gold · Silver | $4,070.10 · $51.88 | $4,029.50 (Fri low) · $3,920 · $3,876 (30 Oct, derived) | $4,148 (5 Nov high) · $4,200 | Kitco spot |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 9,020.8 | 8,900 · 8,834.50 (4 Nov) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 9,065.1 (5 Nov) · 9,092 · 9,200 | V006 closed; zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| HY / IG / CCC OAS | 348 / 93 / 1,320bp | HY 332 (4 Nov) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) | HY 360 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED, 5 Nov |
| Bitcoin | $75,814 | $74,000 · $70,000 | $80,300 (4 Nov) · $81,636 (28 Oct high) | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Monday edition, weekend and week ahead. Six research desks ran in parallel from ≈06:15 AEDT on Monday 9 November; the last US session (Friday 6 November) closed 22 hours before filing, so the §2.1 timing protocol does not bind on a Monday and every US source had posted. The AP tabulation for Friday was read via La Nación’s syndication and matches StockMarketWatch, Reuters via The Standard and Investrade (two-cent differences at Investrade only). Primary reads this run: BLS Employment Situation; the official Treasury par curve (5 and 6 Nov rows); FRED NASDAQ100, VIXCLS (5 Nov), HY, IG and CCC OAS (5 Nov); the RBA 4pm table (4–6 Nov) and RBA Coming Up; ASX end-of-day futures settlements (6 Nov); the CFTC TFF, legacy, COMEX, petroleum and ICE files as of 3 November; ICI; AAII; FactSet Earnings Insight (6 Nov); Kitco; Westmetall; the BoE November minutes; the Riksbank decision; the BoJ schedule; the USTR readout; the Treasury refunding statement; the ABS release calendar; Cotality. Every figure was retrieved on 8–9 November 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled. Futures and FX were closed at filing, so no Monday indicative opens are shown.
Corrections and updates to No. 044
(1) Nasdaq-100, 5 Nov: the derived ≈26,629.81 is confirmed exactly by FRED NASDAQ100 (verified); V031’s mark is upgraded from derived to verified.
(2) VIX, 5 Nov: 28.18 confirmed on FRED VIXCLS (verified; was single source).
(3) Brent contract month, 5 Nov (V024): the $98.29 front-month figure was the January contract (December expired 30 October), as presumed.
(4) Copper (material to the table only): No. 044’s “LME cash $14,110.50” was the 3 November official price; 5 November was $14,110.00 (Westmetall).
(5) France (material): No. 044 carried a 17 November National Assembly first-reading deadline. The Assembly rejected the revenue part of the 2027 finance bill 458–0 on 4 November, so the spending part was never examined and the Senate now reads the government’s original text; the binding date is the 70-day limit on 17 December (Euronews, LCP; verified). V025’s rationale is updated; its conditions are not.
(6) RBA pricing: No. 044’s February ≈20–22% (5 Nov settles) is superseded by 6 Nov settles at 4.87% (≈8%, derived).
(7) Discharged: ASX close 6 Nov (V006 closed); RBA table 6 Nov (V023); FRED 5 Nov rows (V017); NDX stamps 5–6 Nov (V031); Brent month (V024); payrolls and post-payrolls pricing; NZ election (preliminary); CFTC as of 3 Nov. Still open: OAT–Bund 5–6 Nov (V025); settled Investing.com monitor (stale since 27 Oct); official VIX 6 Nov; SPI overnight.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
NZ election date: one calendar source (Newsquawk via global-view) listed the election as Saturday 14 November with a Labour-led coalition favoured; Al Jazeera, ThePrint/Reuters and ABC’s live blog all report the 7 November count, and that is used. Payrolls consensus: 59k (Dow Jones), 62k (TheStreet), 65k (Newsquawk, TE); the beat is described as ≈100k. VIX 6 Nov: 25.58 (StockMarketWatch) against 25.63 (TheStreet); shown ≈25.6; a pre-close 25.49 is discarded. DXY week: level-derived +0.41% against TE text −0.3%; unresolved. Banxico vote: 3–2 (No. 044 sources) against 2–1 (TE calendar); 3–2 carried, flagged. RBA pricing: ASX IB settles (flat to a small lean) against centralbank.watch (11% Feb, 30% Mar, internally inconsistent) and TE’s “cut fully priced” line; the ASX derivation is used. China PPI: prior and consensus differ in level and sign across TE, Lundgreen and Newsquawk; shown as conflicting. Brent weekly change: −13.3% (TE, investomine) against ≈−17% (stl.news); TE used against the verified $113.43 prior. Nikkei Friday: 57,435 / −5.96% (NewsOnJapan, TE) against a TE headline 57,550 / −5.78% (intraday). DAX: 25,820.36 against TE’s 25,778 (intraday). Samsung / SK hynix: article text and 15:30 quotes conflict within Asiae; not used. BoC December date: 9 against 10 December; both shown. BoE vote: InvestingLive’s “9–0” headline contradicts its own text and the BoE minutes (8–1); 8–1 used.
Single-source and unverified items
UMich detail · SOX level (derived) · TOPIX, TAIEX, Shanghai, CSI 300, Sensex, Nifty · IBEX, SMI, FTSE MIB (TE) · European, JGB and ACGB cash yields (TE) · FX except the RBA table · BoJ ETF sales-target change · KOSPI flow split · AI-linked IG spread, Nvidia and SpaceX CDS, CoreWeave TRACE yield, neocloud maturities · Goldman $296bn hyperscaler debt · Bloomberg/Cleanview data-centre share · Eurasia Group odds (carried) · Iranian tanker-mine claims · US–China truce extension · Israel coalition mandate · Pill remarks · BoE December pricing · NZ seat split by party.
Not obtained
Monday indicative opens (markets closed at filing) · SPI night session · OAT–Bund dedicated series (robots-blocked) · FRED 6 Nov rows · official VIX 6 Nov · HS Tech · Hang Seng and CSI 300 weekly from primaries · weekend auction clearance (7–8 Nov) · post-election RBNZ OIS · Ueda’s IMF remarks · Riksbank vote split (minutes Tuesday) · BofA Flow Show equity/bond detail and Bull & Bear · EPFR · ICI long-term flows for 4 Nov · SGX iron ore · ICE/NYMEX settle pages · crypto liquidations · Hormuz transit counts after 25 Oct · post-rout strategist target changes.
Tuesday’s first verification targets
(1) RBA 4pm table today (V023, 1 pip above the stop). (2) OAT–Bund dedicated series 5–9 Nov (V025 unmarked). (3) FRED 6 Nov HY/IG/CCC (V017). (4) Oil and equity-futures reopen after the Gulf weekend. (5) China CPI/PPI actuals. (6) Hunter’s remarks. (7) 3-year auction result. (8) Weekend clearance rate.
United States, Fed & politics
- AP via La Nación — index tabulation 6 Nov · StockMarketWatch — digest 6 Nov · Investrade — market review 6 Nov
- Reuters via The Standard — Nasdaq’s fourth weekly fall · TheStreet Pro — Friday recap · AP via Spectrum — sell-off halts
- BLS — Employment Situation, October · InvestmentNews — payrolls and FedWatch · BLS — CPI schedule
- US Treasury — par yield curve, November · Treasury — refunding statement
- FRED — NASDAQ100 · VIXCLS · WallStreetNumbers — S&P moving averages
- CoinStats — Kalshi December · NYT via GV Wire — Fed path · Federal Reserve — November calendar
- CBS — midterm results · Bloomberg via Insurance Journal — data-centre pauses · Fortune — funding deadline
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · petroleum · ICE US
- FactSet — Earnings Insight 6 Nov · AAII · ICI — MMF · thetrading.tools · historyofmarket
- Reuters via Investing — BofA cash flows · Lipper via Devdiscourse — fund flows · Hedgeweek — prime-book leverage · Beinsure — targets
Rates, FX & central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — Coming Up · RBA — November SoMP
- TE — dollar and FX table · FXStreet — PBoC fix 6 Nov · TE — European yields · JGB
- BoE — November summary and minutes · PA via Nation.Cymru — Pill · Econostream — ECB speakers
- Riksbank — policy rate 2% · BoJ — schedule · centralbank.watch — RBA
Australia, New Zealand & Asia
- AAP via CommBank — ASX close 6 Nov · ABC — markets live 6 Nov · TE — ASX
- ASX — futures settlements 6 Nov · TE — ACGB · ABS — November releases · Cotality — clearance rates
- Al Jazeera — NZ count · Reuters via ThePrint — NZ cliffhanger · ABC — NZ election blog · TE — NZX 50
- NewsOnJapan — Nikkei and TOPIX 6 Nov · TE — Nikkei · Asiae — KOSPI · TE — TAIEX
- TE — Hang Seng · China · China calendar · HDFC Sky — India close
Europe & geopolitics
- cappnotes — closing look 6 Nov · stl.news — weekly update · investomine — weekly report
- Euronews — Assembly rejects the 2027 budget · Newsquawk via global-view — week ahead
- CBS — Iran war live · Al Jazeera — Qeshm, land routes · Fox — 8 Nov live · JPost — Trump on CNN
- Lloyd’s List — Hormuz brief · Reuters via Al-Monitor — Abu Dhabi talks · USTR — Greer and He Lifeng
Commodities, credit & digital assets
- TE — Brent · OilPrice · Reuters via OE Digital — oil weekly · Reuters via GV Wire — OPEC+
- Kitco — gold · Westmetall — LME copper · TE — TTF · Buckhead — WTI, Henry Hub
- FRED — HY OAS · IG OAS · CCC OAS · FourWeekMBA — AI bond supply
- CoinGecko · TFTC — ETF flows · CryptoBriefing — 6 Nov outflows · Cointelegraph — CLARITY