The bottom line
- CoreWeave’s quarter bought back the whole AI chain. The S&P 500 rose ≈+1.31% to ≈7,619, the Nasdaq ≈+1.60% to ≈25,467 and the Nasdaq-100 ≈+2.4% intraday to ≈28,413 (15:26 ET); the Dow ≈+0.49% and the Russell 2000 ≈+0.9% intraday (derived from TipRanks’ close-wrap percentages against AP’s Tuesday closes; the AP tabulation was live but unreadable at filing). CoreWeave rose ≈25%, Micron ≈13%, Sandisk ≈17%, Dell ≈15% and the SOX ≈7% intraday (Reuters, AP; corroborated), and Nvidia gained ≈4–5% despite a Baird downgrade to Neutral and a House deadline for Huang that expired on Wednesday (single sources on the deadline). CoreWeave’s guidance — FY revenue $13.0–13.3bn, ≈$9bn of customer prepayments over three months, no more expensive debt through 2027 — is read here as having answered the demand question for one session; it did not answer the financing one (theme 4). VIX ≈17.4 (15:23 ET). V031 is marked on Tuesday’s now-verified close of 27,740.80 (4.96% in favour) and unmarked for Wednesday.
- The dollar made a 19-month high and the yen is a figure from 160. DXY ≈102.93 (+0.65%), EUR/USD ≈1.1089, USD/JPY ≈159.87, USD/CHF ≈0.8334 (TE; corroborated, untimed), on CPI follow-through with no cash Treasury market to absorb it. USD/JPY at 159.9 is inside the 160 zone where Japan intervened on 1 May; the last verbal warning found is Katayama’s on 27 October (investingLive). The official par curve for Tuesday has now posted: 2-year 4.73% (+17bp), 5-year 4.81% (+14bp), 10-year 4.98% (+10bp), 30-year 5.35% (+9bp) (Treasury; verified) — vendor levels in No. 047 were within 1bp. Pricing for 9 December: CME ≈89% for 25bp and ≈11% for 50bp (via MPA), Kalshi 86% / 12% (corroborated). Goldman added a March 2027 hike but keeps December at 25bp, not 50bp (Mericle, 11 Nov; corroborated).
- The 30-year at 05:00 Friday is the first cash-bond test since CPI, and it meets a 7.25m-contract net short. Treasury sells $25bn of the 2056 reopening at 13:00 ET (Treasury refunding statement; verified), after the 10-year cleared at 5.020% with a 2.46 cover. Leveraged funds were net short 7.25m contracts across the six CBOT Treasury contracts on 3 November, with gross shorts of 9.36m (CFTC TFF; verified) — No. 047 wrote “short 7.25m” without the qualifier. PPI follows at 00:30 Saturday AEDT (TE consensus +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%; unverified). The next CFTC file is delayed to Monday 16 November by the holiday (CFTC; verified), not Friday as No. 047 said.
- Oil gave back the sub-$90 test on Iran’s nuclear line. Brent January traded ≈$93.6 (≈+2.3%, intraday) and WTI December ≈$87.7 (≈+2.0%, intraday) (Reuters at 12:04 ET; intraday — no settle obtained) after Iran’s security chief said enriched material will not leave the country and Tehran denied talks with Washington were under way (Reuters via GV Wire, Al Jazeera; corroborated). Against that, API reported a 9.0mb crude build, Saudi October output rose to 10.56mb/d and Kpler puts Saudi and Iraqi output back at pre-war levels (single sources). The EIA report moves to 04:00 Friday AEDT. Brent is still ≈21% lower month to date (Reuters). V024’s band top is ≈$9.1 below.
- The ASX made another multi-month high while the banks and home lending fell. The ASX 200 rose 0.27% to 9,153.2 (ad-hoc-news, AP, ABC; corroborated; ties to Tuesday’s 9,129.0), with financials the only sector down: CBA −1.2% after a Q1 cash profit of ≈A$2.8bn (+8% y/y) with impairments up to A$300m and home-loan arrears at 0.80% (MarketScreener, Fool; corroborated). Q3 new home lending fell 15.5% q/q, the largest fall since 2002, with investor lending −32.3% (ABS via ABC, TE; corroborated). The RBA table struck AUD/USD at 0.6878 (−0.66%) and AUD/NZD 1.2256 (RBA; verified); ACGB 10s ≈5.05% (+5bp) and 3s ≈4.77% (+7bp) (TE; 10-year corroborated by ABC). ASX 200 futures: −0.5% to 9,148 at 07:10 AEDT (ABC; before the US close). Baker’s speech today is cancelled; the minutes and Bullock are Tuesday, labour force Thursday 19 November.
- Asia led the chip rebound before New York did, and Europe printed a DAX record. The TAIEX rose 3.62% to 44,257.15 on TSMC’s October sales, the KOSPI 2.42% to 5,365.75 (SK hynix +5.4%), the Nikkei 1.30% to 61,248.59; Hong Kong fell 0.7% to 24,387.06 on Alibaba and Tencent (AP, TE; each ties to Tuesday except TOPIX, not obtained). The DAX closed at a record 26,662.77 (+1.20%) on Siemens Energy (+10.6%) and the Stoxx 600 +0.72% (HL/Sharecast; tie to Tuesday). JGB 10s rose ≈9bp to ≈2.79% (TE; single source). Gold fell 1.18% to $3,984.40 (Kitco 16:00 ET; verified) and bitcoin held ≈$74.4k with a fourth day of ETF outflows (−$95m on Tuesday; CoinDesk/Farside). UK Q3 GDP at 18:00 (consensus +0.7% q/q).
Overnight recap
Asia and Australia, Wednesday 11 November
Asia traded US futures higher after CoreWeave’s after-hours beat and shrugged off Tuesday’s CPI. The TAIEX rose 1,545.23 points (+3.62%) to 44,257.15 (TE, AP; the implied prior confirms Tuesday’s ≈42,712), with TSMC +3.1% on October revenue AP describes as nearly six times a year earlier (unverified). The KOSPI rose 2.42% to 5,365.75 with Samsung +3.4% and SK hynix +5.4% (AP; ties). The Nikkei 225 added 1.30% to 61,248.59 despite SoftBank −0.4% after a ¥1.1trn quarterly loss (AP; ties); TOPIX was not obtained. JGBs sold off: 10-year ≈2.79% (+9bp), 30-year ≈3.94% (TE; single source). China: Shanghai +0.6% to 3,685.27 (AP; TE’s CFD reads 3,680.64), CSI 300 ≈+0.4%, with AI names led by Cambricon (+7.4%); the PBoC fixed 6.7191, the weakest since 22 October (TE; date inferred). The Hang Seng fell 0.7% to 24,387.06 (AP; TE’s 24,315 conflicts) on a Meituan downgrade and caution before APEC. India reopened: Sensex +0.95% to 81,879.40, Nifty +0.84% to 25,255.05 (HDFC Sky; both tie to Monday).
In Australia the ASX 200 added 24.2 points to 9,153.2 with breadth only narrowly positive (557 up, 520 down across all stocks; Investing.com) and the A-VIX down 6% to 10.88. Life360 (+9.5%) and Monadelphous (+7.1%) led; NEXTDC (−4.0%), PEXA (−3.4%, guidance cut) and Domino’s (−4.2%) lagged; CBA (−1.2%) and NAB (−1.5%) took financials lower while ANZ rose 1.4%. The RBA struck AUD/USD at 0.6878 and AUD/NZD at 1.2256.
Europe
A clean risk-on session. The Stoxx 600 closed +0.72% at 663.05, the DAX +1.20% at a record 26,662.77, the CAC +0.66% at 8,332.87 (a two-month high), the FTSE 100 +0.78% at 10,835.47 and the IBEX +0.46% (HL/Sharecast, TE; Stoxx, DAX, CAC and FTSE tie to Tuesday). Siemens Energy rose ≈10.6% on record revenue, a higher 2027 margin target and a tripled dividend; Infineon +6–7%, STMicro +4.1%, Spirax +3.6%; Rheinmetall −6.5%, Vestas fell on a Q3 EBIT miss and Taylor Wimpey −4.5% on soft autumn trading. German final October CPI confirmed the flash at 2.8% y/y. Bunds were flat at ≈3.32%, BTPs ≈3bp tighter at ≈4.35% and gilts ≈5.23% (TE; single source). Rubio told the G7 in Paris the US sees no need for major combat operations in Iran (TE); Iran’s Rezaei denied that talks are under way (Al Jazeera). Ukrainian drones set fire to the Ust-Luga export area (Al Jazeera; corroborated), and the US-mediated Abu Dhabi talks ended their second day without a confirmed outcome.
New York, Wednesday 11 November (Veterans Day)
With the cash Treasury market shut, equities traded the CoreWeave quarter and little else. By 13:30 ET the S&P was +1.63% and the Nasdaq +2.29% with six of eleven sectors higher, technology and energy leading and staples and homebuilders lagging (Reuters via MarketScreener; corroborated with Yahoo’s 13:58 ET bar). Memory and storage led: Micron +13–14%, Sandisk +17%, Seagate +13%, Dell +15%, Super Micro +12%, Marvell +12%; neoclouds and power followed (Nebius +15–17% before Thursday’s report, Bloom +16%). Nvidia rose ≈4–5% as the House chairs’ deadline for Huang passed with Mast saying he would “absolutely” subpoena if needed (Le Private Banker, Yahoo; corroborated) and Baird cut it to Neutral. Clorox, Conagra and Campbell’s fell ≈3%. At the close: TipRanks’ close wrap (16:10 ET) has the S&P +1.31%, the Nasdaq +1.60% and the Dow +0.49%, which against Tuesday’s AP closes gives ≈7,619, ≈25,467 and ≈52,488 (derived); CoreWeave closed ≈+24% and Nvidia ≈+3% (TipRanks; corroborated by Yahoo intraday). The AP tabulation had posted but could not be read. The Nasdaq-100 was +2.4% at 15:26 ET (MarketScreener; single source); its close was not obtained. Oil rose ≈2.5–3% on Iran’s nuclear line; gold traded $3,984.40 at 16:00 ET (Kitco). Late New York FX: DXY ≈102.93, USD/JPY ≈159.87, EUR/USD ≈1.1089, AUD/USD ≈0.6849 (TE; untimed). In Washington the House voted 211–204 to refer the Hegseth impeachment resolution to committee (CBS; corroborated) and Jim Jordan was elected House Republican leader.
Market dashboard
Week to date: change since Friday 6 November
| Equities | Close | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ≈7,619 | ≈+1.31% | 7,520.93 (AP) | Derived: TipRanks close-wrap +1.31% (16:10 ET) on AP’s Tuesday close. Business Upturn’s 7,616.77 is a 15:55 ET snapshot. AP tabulation live but unreadable |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | ≈52,488 · ≈25,467 | ≈+0.49% · ≈+1.60% | 52,231.89 · 25,065.87 | Derived as above (TipRanks +0.49% / +1.60%). Reuters at 14:47 ET: Dow +0.34%, Nasdaq +1.80% |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | ≈2,846 (15:23 ET) · ≈28,413 (15:26 ET) | ≈+0.9% intraday · ≈+2.4% intraday | 2,821.38 (AP) · 27,740.80 (10 Nov) | Russell: Yahoo bar 15:23 ET (intraday). NDX 10 Nov close 27,740.80 (−0.60%) now verified (Yahoo “at close”, prior ties to FRED); 11 Nov close not obtained — MarketScreener 15:26 ET intraday |
| VIX · SOX | ≈17.4 (15:23 ET) · — | ≈−10% · ≈+7% (intraday) | 19.46 | VIX Yahoo 15:23 ET (−2.01 ties to the 19.46 prior); close not obtained. SOX Reuters intraday (single source) |
| CoreWeave · Nvidia | ≈+25% · ≈+4–5% | intraday | Nvidia $168.89 | Reuters, AP, Yahoo 13:58 ET (corroborated); closing prints not obtained. Baird to Neutral on Nvidia |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | 663.05 · 26,662.77 | +0.72% · +1.20% | 658.32 · 26,347.45 | HL/Sharecast; both tie to Tuesday. DAX record close (TE) |
| CAC 40 · FTSE 100 · IBEX | 8,332.87 · 10,835.47 · 20,027.90 | +0.66% · +0.78% · +0.46% | 8,278.59 · 10,751.59 · — | CAC and FTSE tie (HL, TE). IBEX TE (no prior to tie). FTSE MIB and SMI not obtained; the carried MIB prior does not reconcile (§13) |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 61,248.59 · — | +1.30% · — | 60,459.58 · 3,893.71 | AP via KSAT; ties exactly (+789.01). TOPIX not obtained |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,685.27 · ≈4,075.71 | +0.59% · ≈+0.41% | 3,663.72 · 4,059.11 | Shanghai AP (TE CFD 3,680.64 conflicts). CSI 300 TE only (unverified) |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 24,387.06 · — | −0.69% · — | ≈24,557 | AP, NordFX (corroborated); TE 24,315 conflicts. HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,365.75 · 44,257.15 | +2.42% · +3.62% | 5,239.13 · ≈42,712 | KOSPI AP, NordFX (ties). TAIEX TE, AP (implied prior 42,711.92 confirms Tuesday) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 81,879.40 · 25,255.05 | +0.95% · +0.84% | 81,106.65 · 25,044.65 | HDFC Sky; both tie to Monday (India shut Tuesday). AP’s “+1.6%” disregarded |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 9,153.2 | +0.27% | 9,129.0 | ad-hoc-news level; AP/ABC +0.3% (corroborated; ties). A-VIX 10.88 (−6%). Futures: −0.5% to 9,148 at 07:10 AEDT (ABC; before the US close) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official par 2y · 5y · 10y · 30y (Tue 10 Nov) | 4.73 · 4.81 · 4.98 · 5.35% | +17 · +14 · +10 · +9bp | 4.56 · 4.67 · 4.88 · 5.26 (9 Nov) | Verified (Treasury). Bear flattener: 2s10s 25bp (−7bp), 5s30s 54bp (−5bp) (derived). No 11 Nov row (Veterans Day) |
| 3-month bill (par) | 4.30% | Treasury; verified | ||
| 30-year auction (Thu 13:00 ET) | $25bn | 10-year 5.020%, 2.46× | 2056 reopening, settles 16 Nov (Treasury; verified). Friday 05:00 AEDT | |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.23 · ≈5.64% | ≈+2 · 0bp | ≈5.21 · ≈5.64 | TE (corroborated 10y). UK 2y ≈4.89% |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | ≈3.32 · ≈4.80 · ≈4.35% | ≈+1 · ≈+1 · ≈−3bp | ≈3.31 · ≈4.79 · ≈4.38 | TE. BTP–Bund ≈103bp (derived, −4bp). Bund 20y/30y auctions 3.80% / 3.67% |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 142.4bp (10 Nov) | −10.5bp | 152.9 (9 Nov) | Verified (ideal-investisseur), but its OAT leg (4.66%) conflicts with TE’s ≈4.79% and the TE-derived spread is ≈148bp, roughly unchanged. V025 marked; move flagged as suspect |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.79 · ≈3.94% | ≈+9 · ≈+6bp | ≈2.70 · ≈3.88 | TE (single source). 2y 1.85%, 5y 2.19% |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | ≈4.77 · ≈5.05% | ≈+7 · ≈+5bp | ≈4.70 · ≈5.00 | TE levels (10y corroborated by ABC 5.05% at 16:20); changes derived; TE’s own change column disagrees. 2y 4.87, 30y 5.49 |
| Canada 10y | ≈3.72% | ≈0bp | ≈3.72 | TE page dated 10 Nov (unverified for 11 Nov) |
| US HY OAS | 334bp (9 Nov) | −8bp | 342 (6 Nov) | Verified (FRED/ALFRED). 10 Nov rows not posted; none for 11 Nov |
| US IG · CCC OAS | 91 · 1,311bp (9 Nov) | −2 · −6bp | 93 · 1,317 (6 Nov) | Verified (FRED). Pre-CPI |
| FX | Wed | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈102.93 | ≈+0.65% | ≈102.26 | TE (untimed; GBP page 102.87). “19-month high” (TE). Changes recomputed against No. 047 levels |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1089 · ≈1.3275 | ≈−0.65% · ≈−0.51% | ≈1.1162 · ≈1.3343 | TE (corroborated across two TE pages) |
| USD/JPY | ≈159.87 | ≈+0.67% | ≈158.80 | TE (JGB page 159.88). Investing.com’s 157.47 is stale and excluded. 160 = May intervention zone |
| AUD/USD · NZD/USD (NY) | ≈0.6849 · ≈0.5564 | ≈−0.20% · ≈−0.66% | ≈0.6863 · ≈0.5601 | TE. NY basis — never blended with the RBA table. NY AUD/NZD ≈1.2310 (derived) |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF · USD/MXN | ≈1.4245 · ≈0.8334 · ≈18.625 | ≈+0.42 · ≈+0.98 · ≈0.0% | ≈1.4186 · ≈0.8253 · ≈18.63 | TE (corroborated) |
| AUD/USD (RBA 4pm) | 0.6878 | −0.66% | 0.6924 (RBA) | Verified (RBA). TWI 63.8 (from 64.1) |
| AUD/NZD · AUD/JPY (RBA 4pm) | 1.2256 · 109.20 | −0.20% · −0.16% | 1.2281 · 109.38 | Verified. AUD/CNY 4.5908, AUD/EUR 0.6160. No AUD view open since V023 closed |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6739 · 6.7191 | ≈−0.05% | 6.7167 (fix) | Fix TE (“weakest since 22 Oct”, above the Reuters estimate; date inferred). Thursday’s fix ≈12:15 AEDT |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW | ≈93.77 · ≈1,339.2 | TE only (unverified); KRW quotes conflicted in No. 047 |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent JANUARY (front) | ≈$93.6 | ≈+2.3%, intraday | $91.49 (10 Nov) | No settle obtained: Reuters 12:04 ET $93.64 (+$2.15); oilprice.com late ≈$93.90; ABC 15:10 ET $92.43 conflicts. V024 carried on the 10 Nov settle |
| WTI DECEMBER | ≈$87.7 | ≈+2.0%, intraday | $86.04 (10 Nov) | 10 Nov settle corroborated again (Buckhead 22:38 UTC). EIA weekly Fri 04:00 AEDT; API crude +9.0mb |
| Gold (spot) · silver · platinum | $3,984.40 · ≈$52.07 · ≈$1,541 | −1.18% · ≈+1.7% · ≈+0.3% | $4,032.40 | Kitco 16:00 ET (verified). Silver, platinum TE (platinum single source) |
| Bitcoin | $74,383 | ≈+1.0% | $73,632 (No. 047) | CoinGecko ≈19:00 UTC (time derived). Near the ≈$73.2k 200-day. 24h liquidations $725m (CoinGlass via CoinDesk) |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,080 · $84.86 · $1.06 · $686 | ≈+1.4 · +2.0 · 0.0 · +1.8% | vs No. 047 | CoinGecko. Total cap ≈$2.565tn; BTC dominance 58.3% |
| Spot BTC ETF flows | Tue −$95m | 4th outflow day | Mon −$201m | Farside via CoinDesk (corroborated); IBIT −$78m, 8th straight. ETH ETFs −$1.3m Tue (single source). Wednesday not published |
| Henry Hub · TTF | ≈$3.28 · ≈€86.9 | ≈0% · ≈+2% | ≈$3.30 · ≈€85.2 | TE (corroborated). Record LNG feedgas 19.3bcf/d; EU storage below 73% |
| Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX | $14,030 · $13,855 (9 Nov) · ≈$6.28/lb | +0.5% (vs 6 Nov) · — · ≈+1.1% | $13,955 (6 Nov) | Westmetall (verified; 10–11 Nov rows absent). Backwardation $175/t (derived). COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% · aluminium | ≈$92.5 · ≈$3,055 | ≈−0.5% · ≈+1.4% | $93.05 · ≈$3,014 | Iron ore TE (10 Nov) and ABC −0.4% to $92.40 (corroborated) |
| Lithium carb. · uranium | CNY90,450 · $90.95 (10 Nov) | −0.9% · −0.5% | CNY91,250 · $91.40 | TE. Lithium at a one-year low |
Conventions: 1d is Wednesday 11 November against Tuesday 10 November. US cash closes: the AP tabulation for Wednesday had posted but could not be read, so levels are derived from TipRanks’ close-wrap percentages against Tuesday’s AP closes and carry “≈”; the Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 and VIX are intraday prints. Tuesday priors are the AP tabulation (which corrects No. 047’s Russell 2000). The official par curve is the Treasury mark and is never mixed with vendor yields; there was no cash Treasury session on Wednesday. FX is late New York (TE, untimed) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two are never blended. Trading Economics change columns are not used; changes are recomputed from levels. “≈” marks a vendor, intraday, CFD-based or derived level; “—” means not obtained.
What is driving markets
1. The midterm verdict turns into an AI-capex verdict
One quarter reversed two sessions of selling. On Tuesday evening CoreWeave reported revenue of $3.661bn (+168% y/y), guided FY revenue to $13.0–13.3bn and a $20–21bn run-rate by year-end, said it expects ≈$9bn of customer prepayments over three months and will add no more expensive debt through 2027, and pointed to adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028 (Reuters, TradingKey; corroborated). On Wednesday its shares rose ≈25% and the build-out chain went with it: Micron, Sandisk, Seagate, Dell, Super Micro and Marvell all rose 12–17% intraday, the SOX ≈7%, and Asia had already moved — TAIEX +3.6%, SK hynix +5.4% (Reuters, AP; corroborated). Nvidia, the index’s largest weight, rose less (≈4–5%) with its governance problem unresolved: the House chairs’ Wednesday deadline for Huang passed with a subpoena threatened, the DOJ inquiry into Megaspeed continues, and Baird moved to Neutral (Le Private Banker, Yahoo, NYT via Yahoo; corroborated except the DOJ detail). The reading here is that the market is pricing the demand data, which keep beating, and is willing to let the governance question wait for Nvidia’s results (house reading). UBS’s Parker kept an end-2027 S&P target of 8,900 on the view that “after this much derating, more downside looks priced”, while BofA’s Subramanian called the S&P perhaps the most crowded ticker (Investing.com, Stocktwits; corroborated).
2. Oil is pricing the politics of the war, not its physical flows
The headline that took Brent below $90 on Tuesday was answered on Wednesday. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei denied that talks with Washington are under way and repeated that enriched material will not leave the country (Al Jazeera, Reuters via GV Wire; corroborated — he said the same on 20 October), and Brent January rose to ≈$93.6 (Reuters at 12:04 ET; intraday — no settle obtained). Rubio told the G7 the US sees no need for major combat operations (TE), and Trump said on Tuesday that Israel and the Gulf states must repay the cost of the war (Al Jazeera). The physical side is moving in the other direction from the strait: Saudi October output rose 26% to 10.56mb/d (TE) and Kpler puts Saudi and Iraqi output back at pre-war levels, with Middle East outages down to ≈3.8mb/d (single source), while the strait itself stays near shut — WINEP counted 37 ships attacked in October, the most of the war, and IMF PortWatch transits are in single digits (straits.live; unverified aggregator). OPEC+’s seven held December targets and meet again on 29 November (OPEC; verified). Ukrainian strikes keep hitting Russian export capacity: a fire at Ust-Luga on Wednesday after the Kirishi refinery strike on 9 November (Al Jazeera; corroborated).
3. The term-premium regime is under test from the front, not the long end
The primary confirmed the vendors. Official par for Tuesday printed 2-year 4.73% (+17bp), 5-year 4.81% (+14bp), 10-year 4.98% (+10bp) and 30-year 5.35% (+9bp) (Treasury; verified): a bear flattener that took 2s10s to 25bp and 5s30s to 54bp (derived). With no cash market on Wednesday the move went into the currency instead — DXY to a 19-month high and USD/JPY to ≈159.9 — and into Japan’s curve, where the 10-year rose ≈9bp to ≈2.79% (TE; single source). Pricing settled near 89/11 for 25bp/50bp in December (CME via MPA; corroborated with Kalshi 86/12), and Goldman’s Mericle now has a third hike in March 2027 with a 4.25–4.50% peak and cuts from December 2027 (Investing.com; corroborated). Positioning is the risk in both directions: leveraged funds were net short 7,249,305 contracts across the six Treasury contracts on 3 November, 9.36m gross, with the 5-year the largest leg (−2.32m) (CFTC TFF; verified) — consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure. BofA’s Hartnett set a 10-year below 4.5% as one of three conditions to re-risk (finwire; single source).
4. AI-capex financing: the bond market keeps writing the cheques
CoreWeave’s answer to the financing question was to borrow more cheaply, not to borrow less. Per the FT (via TradingKey), it plans GPU-backed borrowing at ≈7–7.5% against yields above 15% on some unsecured debt, alongside the ≈$4.2bn of convertibles and the at-the-market programme disclosed on Tuesday (corroborated for the convertibles; GPU-backed terms single source). The equity rally does not change the stack: secured, asset-backed debt ahead of unsecured bondholders is a priority question for the existing 2030–2032 notes (house reading). The index data are still pre-CPI: FRED HY 334bp on 9 November (−8bp), IG 91bp and CCC 1,311bp (FRED/ALFRED; verified); the 10 November rows had not posted, and there will be none for 11 November. No current-dated IG or HY issuance total was found; an IFR item that surfaced was from 2025 and is not used.
Central bank watch
Pricing for the 8–9 December FOMC, since Friday
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp) | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec; Fed, verified) + SEP | +25bp ≈89%, +50bp ≈11%, any hike 100% (CME via MPA, Wed; corroborated); Kalshi 86% / 12% (18:32 UTC). Goldman: 25bp Dec, then March 2027. Blackout from 28 Nov | Hike priced |
| RBA | 4.85% | +25bp 3 Nov, 6–3; tightening bias dropped | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 (RBA; verified) | ASX-implied: hold 8 Dec ≈100%; Feb 4.89% (≈17% hike); peak ≈4.97% Mar 2027, then ≈4.62% by Nov 2027 (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov; corroborated). TE: ≈82% that rates have peaked | On hold, two-way |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | Held 29 Oct | Fri 18 Dec 00:15 (Thu 17 Dec CET; ECB, verified) · presser 00:45 | Hike ≈86% (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov). Lane “strong case”, Nagel, Kazāks, Kocher hawkish; Knot sees limited need. Lagarde leaves 7 Feb 2027 (Euronews; verified) | Leaning to hike |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%) | Fri 18 Dec (MPM 17–18 Dec; BoJ, verified) | Hike ≈53% (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov); ≈65% on 6 Nov (MUFG). USD/JPY ≈159.9 against the 160 intervention zone | Hawkish hold |
| BoE | 4.00% | +25bp 5 Nov, 8–1 (Mann for +50bp) | Thu 17 Dec 23:00 (BoE; verified) | Hike ≈68% (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov). Q3 GDP today 18:00 (cons +0.7% q/q); labour Tue 17 Nov; CPI Wed 18 Nov | Hiking |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 (three for 3.00%) | Wed 9 Dec + MPS | Dec hike 60–65% (NZ Adviser, 9 Nov; carried, single source). FSR published Wed 11 Nov; content not retrieved | Tightening bias |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct | Thu 10 Dec 01:45 (Wed 9 Dec 09:45 ET) | No pricing obtained. October jobs −4.7k (TE) | Hiking, careful |
| SNB | 0.00% | Held 24 Sep | Thu 10 Dec 19:30 (SNB; verified) | Hike ≈12% (centralbank.watch) | On hold |
| Riksbank · Norges | 2.00% · 4.50% | Riks +25bp 4 Nov · Norges held 5 Nov | Riks Wed 16 Dec · Norges Thu 17 Dec 20:00 | Carried (not re-verified) | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct; FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov | LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00 | Wed fix 6.7191, weakest since 22 Oct (TE; date inferred). Hold expected | Leaning against CNY strength |
| Emerging markets | |||||
| Brazil (BCB) | 13.75% | Held 4 Nov, unanimous (39 of 75 houses had expected a cut) | Copom Thu 10 Dec ≈08:30 | Minutes: expectations unanchored; 2026 IPCA projection 5.6% (No. 047) | Hawkish pause |
| Mexico (Banxico) · Peru (BCRP) | 6.25% · 4.25% | Banxico −25bp 5 Nov, 3–2 (“one-off”) · BCRP held 7 Oct | BCRP Thu 12 Nov ≈18:00 Lima = Fri ≈10:00 · Banxico 17 Dec | BCRP consensus unverified (hike vs hold conflict carried). Banxico minutes 19 Nov | Mixed |
| Korea (BoK) · India (RBI) · Indonesia (BI) | 3.00% · 5.50% · 5.75% | BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct · BI held 21 Oct | BoK Thu 26 Nov · RBI Fri 4 Dec · BI ≈18–19 Nov (unverified) | BoK hike widely expected (Korea Times). RBI repo now confirmed at 5.50% (5paisa; single source) | Hiking |
Fed. No new policy speech changed the picture on Wednesday. Waller’s Tuesday condition — 50bp “should” be considered if October core came in near 0.3% or above — was met by the print, and he also said hiking only 25bp “would put our credibility at risk” (MPA, Seoul Economic Daily; corroborated). Bowman said there is “still work to do” (Yahoo; unverified date). Correction to No. 047: Logan’s call for “at least two more” hikes was made on 30 October at Davidson College (Scotsman Guide, Newsquawk), not this week. Thursday US time brings Hammack (09:00 ET), Barr (10:00), Goolsbee (11:30), Daly (13:10) and Williams (18:30) (TE; times unverified except Barr), and Friday Bowman, Daly and Jefferson.
BoJ and the yen. With the Summary of Opinions already leaning to December, the yen did the talking: USD/JPY ≈159.87 and JGB 10s ≈2.79%. No new MoF warning was found this week; the joint US–Japan FX statement “still stands” (Katayama, 2 Nov; investingLive). Q3 GDP is Monday 10:50 AEDT (consensus +0.1% q/q; TE, unverified).
ECB and BoE. No Lagarde content was captured from Wednesday’s two appearances; she speaks again at 06:30 AEDT Friday. The succession is now a market variable: Lagarde leaves on 7 February 2027, with Hernández de Cos and Knot the front-runners (Euronews; verified departure). UK Q3 GDP at 18:00 is the last activity print before the 17 November labour data.
Regional briefs
United States
A one-stock holiday rally with the bond market shut. S&P ≈+1.31% to ≈7,619, Nasdaq ≈+1.60%, Dow ≈+0.49% (derived from TipRanks’ close wrap against AP’s Tuesday closes); Nasdaq-100 ≈+2.4% intraday. CoreWeave ≈+25%, memory and storage +12–17%, Nvidia ≈+4–5%; staples and homebuilders lagged (Reuters, AP). Official par for Tuesday: 2y 4.73%, 10y 4.98%, 30y 5.35% (verified). Fed: 25bp in December fully priced, 50bp ≈11%. Politics: Democrats hold at least 254 House seats; Jordan beat Scalise 106–73 for House Republican leader and Thune was re-elected in the Senate; the House shelved the Hegseth impeachment resolution 211–204 (CBS; corroborated). The 11 December funding lapse looks set for a stopgap that leaves a full-year deal to the new Congress (Fiscal Times, 9 Nov); the October deficit is estimated at $409bn (single source). Thursday: claims 08:30 ET (prior 189k), the 30-year at 13:00, Cisco and Applied Materials after the close; PPI Friday.
Euro area
A record DAX on energy-transition and chip names. Stoxx 600 663.05 (+0.72%), DAX 26,662.77 (+1.20%, record), CAC 8,332.87 (+0.66%), IBEX 20,027.90 (+0.46%) (HL/Sharecast, TE). Siemens Energy ≈+10.6% (record quarterly revenue, a higher 2027 margin goal, the dividend more than tripled and a bigger buyback), Infineon +6–7%, RWE +2.2%, Siemens ≈+1.8%; Rheinmetall −6.5% and Brenntag ≈−4% (TE). Basic resources +1.3% on copper. German October CPI final 2.8% y/y, as flashed. Bund ≈3.32%, OAT ≈4.80%, BTP ≈4.35% (TE). The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 142.4bp for 10 November, but its OAT leg (4.66%) does not match TE’s ≈4.79%, so the 10.5bp fall is treated as suspect until 11 November posts (§08). France: Senate PLFSS vote 18 November, S&P review 27 November, budget vote 9 December. Spain holds a snap general election on 29 November (TE; single source). Euro-area Q3 GDP second estimate Friday 21:00 AEDT (consensus 0.4% q/q).
United Kingdom
FTSE up 0.8% into GDP. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,835.47 (+83.88) and the FTSE 250 +0.72% (HL; both tie). Computacenter +4.7%, Spirax +3.6% on confident guidance, BP +2.7%, LSEG +2.6%, miners up with copper; Taylor Wimpey −4.5% (FY26 profit towards the bottom of consensus on soft autumn trading and affordability), ITV −3.5%, JD Sports −2.9% (HL). Gilt 10s ≈5.23%, 30s ≈5.64% (TE). RICS house-price balance −32 (TE). Q3 GDP at 18:00 AEDT today: consensus +0.7% q/q (TE, Continuum; the BoE’s MPR also has 0.7%) with September flat m/m; the prior is shown as 0.5% (TE) or 0.4% (financecalendar), unresolved. Labour data Tuesday and CPI Wednesday next week; Moody’s reviews the UK that week (Newsquawk).
Japan
Nikkei up, JGBs and the yen down. Nikkei 225 +1.30% (+789.01) to 61,248.59 (AP; ties); SoftBank −0.4% after a ¥1.1trn Q2 net loss. TOPIX not obtained (the Nikkei archive served stale data). JGB 10s ≈2.79% (+9bp, a one-week high), 2s 1.85%, 30s ≈3.94% (TE; single source). USD/JPY ≈159.87 (TE) — within reach of the 160 zone where Japan intervened on 1 May. The BoJ’s Kameda called a December hike likely on 9 November and Ueda sees underlying inflation near 2% with “some upside risks” (TE, MUFG). PPI at 10:50 today (TE consensus 0.3% m/m, 6.5% y/y; unverified); Q3 GDP Monday 10:50 (ESRI; verified date).
China & Hong Kong
Mainland up on AI, Hong Kong down on platforms. Shanghai +0.6% to 3,685.27 (AP), CSI 300 ≈+0.4% (TE), Shenzhen +1.3%; Cambricon +7.4%, Eoptolink +6.3%, Moutai −2.6%. The Hang Seng fell 0.7% to 24,387.06 (AP) with Alibaba −2.9%, Tencent −2.0% and Xiaomi −1.6% on a Meituan downgrade and caution before APEC. October CPI 0.7% y/y (consensus 0.8%) and PPI 5.7% (consensus 5.3%) are already out (TE; verified via calendar). The PBoC fixed 6.7191, the weakest since 22 October and above the Reuters estimate (TE); the FX RRR rises to 6% on Sunday. Credit data are in Friday’s window; activity data and 70-city prices Monday 13:00 AEDT (IP prior 5.5%, retail 1.1%). Singles’ Day started Wednesday. Trump–Xi at APEC Shenzhen, 18–19 November; SCMP reports a trade chiefs’ call ahead of it (headline only; unverified).
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Taiwan led the region. TAIEX +3.62% to 44,257.15 (TE, AP), with TSMC +3.1% (AP; TE’s table +4.8%); AP also reports TSMC’s board approved up to $1bn of investment in Anthropic and OpenAI (unverified). KOSPI +2.42% to 5,365.75 with Samsung +3.4% and SK hynix +5.4% (AP). India reopened with the Sensex +0.95% and Nifty +0.84% (HDFC Sky); FPIs have bought $5.68bn so far in November (single source). The BoK is widely expected to hike on 26 November and the RBI’s repo is 5.50% after October’s hike (Korea Times, 5paisa). LatAm: Peru’s BCRP decides tonight Lima time; Banxico’s 3–2 cut was framed as a one-off; Brazil’s unanimous hold was a partial hawkish surprise against a cut median.
Australia & New Zealand
RBA: a quiet week before the minutes
Cash rate 4.85% after the 3 November hike (6–3), tightening bias dropped; next decision Tuesday 8 December 14:30 (RBA; verified). Board member Marnie Baker’s ARCA speech today is cancelled for family reasons (RBA “coming up”; verified), so there is no RBA speaker before Bullock’s ASIC panel at 10:00 and the November minutes at 11:30 on Tuesday 17 November; Fry-McKibbin speaks on 20 November, Jacobs on 25 November, Bullock again on 1 December (RBA; verified). Hauser’s 5 November ANU speech said market and economist long-run expectations are “well anchored on the 2–3 per cent target” while businesses are “less sure” over 5–10 years (RBA; verified). The ASX-implied path is a hold in December, ≈17% for a February hike and a peak near 4.97% in March 2027, then easing to ≈4.62% by November 2027 (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov; corroborated); TE has ≈82% that the cash rate has peaked. ANZ thinks the Board is most likely done but cannot rule out December (ABC). The ACGB move after US CPI (3s +7bp) says the front end is still taking its lead from the Fed, not from domestic data (house reading).
Markets: index up, banks down
Equities. ASX 200 +24.2 (+0.27%) to 9,153.2, a second straight multi-month high (ad-hoc-news calls it an 11-month high; No. 047 had Tuesday’s close as the highest in more than two months — the descriptions conflict, the level does not). Financials were the only sector down (−0.35%): CBA −1.2%, NAB −1.5%, Westpac flat, ANZ +1.4%. BHP +0.9%, Rio +0.7%; tech, energy and refiners supported (AGL +2.3%, Karoon +1.9%, Ampol +1.8%). Life360 +9.5%, Monadelphous +7.1%, Pilbara +6.5%; NEXTDC −4.0%, PEXA −3.4%, Domino’s −4.2%; GQG’s reported −19.6% is unverified. A-VIX 10.88 (−6.0%). CBA Q1: cash NPAT ≈A$2.8bn (+8% y/y, flat on the 2H26 quarterly average), loan impairment expense A$300m (11bp) against A$234m a quarter in 2H26, home-loan arrears +7bp to 0.80%, CET1 11.5%, home-loan applications −16% y/y (MarketScreener, Fool, ABC; corroborated). Rates. ACGB 2y 4.87%, 3y ≈4.77%, 10y ≈5.05%, 30y 5.49% (TE; 10y corroborated by ABC). AUD. RBA table 0.6878 (−0.66%), TWI 63.8, AUD/JPY 109.20 (RBA; verified); ≈0.6849 late in New York (TE). Futures: −0.5% to 9,148 at 07:10 AEDT (ABC; before the US close)
Data, property and the China link
Q3 lending indicators were the weakest in two decades: new home-loan commitments fell 15.5% q/q to A$81.16bn, the largest fall since 2002, investor loans −32.3% (TE consensus −14%), owner-occupiers −5.3% and first-home buyers −8.0% (ABS via ABC, TE; corroborated); JPMorgan attributes part of the fall to the Budget’s investor tax changes (ABC). Today: MI consumer inflation expectations at 11:00 (prior 5.3%; TE, unlabelled columns) and September arrivals. Cotality’s October index fell 1.2% m/m, the seventh straight fall, and is 6.7% below the March peak; preliminary clearance for 7–8 November was 51.5% nationally on 1,734 auctions after a 40.7% final the week before (PIP; secondary source); the final is due today. China: October PPI 5.7% y/y beat; iron ore ≈$92.4–92.5 (ABC, TE); copper firmer on record Chinese import premiums. Coming up (ABS; verified): WPI Wednesday 18 November, Labour Force Thursday 19 November 11:30 (September: −39.3k, 4.7%), monthly CPI late November (date conflict, §13).
New Zealand
The NZX 50 closed at a record 14,179.86 (+0.09%) with Gentrack +9.1% (TE; the implied prior matches Tuesday’s record). NZD/USD ≈0.5564 late in New York (TE), and the RBA cross fell to 1.2256. The RBNZ published its Financial Stability Report on Wednesday at 09:00 NZT (RBNZ; verified), but its content was not retrieved for a second edition — every search returned the 2025 or May 2026 reports. The official election result is due on 27 November; Nicola Willis did not win a seat, and Simeon Brown and Barbara Edmonds are named as candidates for Finance Minister (TE; single source). OCR 2.75%; 9 December hike priced 60–65% (carried, single source).
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.85% (3 Nov, 6–3) | 4.60% | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 · minutes Tue 17 Nov 11:30 |
| New home lending (Q3, value) | −15.5% q/q · A$81.16bn | investor −32.3% · owner-occ. −5.3% | Q4: February |
| Westpac sentiment (Nov) · NAB confidence (Oct) | 78.2 · −15 | 80.4 · −14 (rev.) | December |
| Consumer inflation expectations (Nov) | — | 5.3% (TE) | Today 11:00 |
| Wage price index (Q3) | — | 0.8% q/q · 3.2% y/y | Wed 18 Nov 11:30 (ABS; verified) |
| Labour force (Oct) | — | Sep: −39.3k · 4.7% | Thu 19 Nov 11:30 (ABS; verified) |
| Monthly CPI (Oct) | — | Sep 4.3% y/y · trimmed 3.6% (TE) | Wed 25 Nov 11:30 (ABS November calendar; verified — corrects No. 047’s 26 Nov) |
| Cotality home values (Oct) | −1.2% m/m · −2.8% y/y | −6.7% from March peak | Nov: 1 Dec |
| Auction clearance (7–8 Nov, prelim.) | 51.5% (1,734) | 40.7% final (1 Nov) | Final today |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread): Tuesday’s Nasdaq-100 close is now verified at 27,740.80 (−0.60%; Yahoo “at close”, its prior ties to FRED’s 9 November 27,907.63), which marks the view 4.96% in favour on 10 November, up from 4.39%. Wednesday’s close was not obtained; the index was ≈+2.4% at 15:26 ET (single source), which would cut the cushion to roughly 2.6% — that is not a mark, and the 3 November convention means an intraday print never moves a view. 30,932 remains ≈11% above. V025 (OAT–Bund widener): the dedicated series printed 142.4bp for 10 November (ideal-investisseur; verified), −10.5bp and 2.4bp above the 140bp mirror (0 of 2). Its OAT leg of 4.66% conflicts with TE’s ≈4.79% on the same day and the TE-derived spread was ≈148bp, roughly unchanged; under the convention the dedicated series is the mark, so 142.4 stands, and a second print below 140 would move the view to Med as written — but the leg conflict is recorded so that the 11 November row can confirm or contradict it. V017 (US credit): FRED HY 334bp for 9 November (−8bp), IG 91bp, CCC 1,311bp (verified) — 29bp from the HY mirror and 261bp from the CCC exit. V024 (Brent residual call spread): no Wednesday settle was obtained; Brent January traded ≈$93.6 at 12:04 ET (+$2.15; Reuters) and ≈$93.9 late (oilprice.com), so under the 10 November convention the view is carried on the 10 November settle of $91.49 with the late quote shown as ≈. The band top is ≈$9.1 below the quote; 0 of 2.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Dedicated 142.4bp (10 Nov) — verified, leg conflict flagged; 152.9 (9 Nov). Senate PLFSS vote 18 Nov; S&P 27 Nov; budget vote 9 Dec; ordinance limit 17 Dec | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (0 of 2; 2.4bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED HY 334bp, IG 91bp, CCC 1,311bp (9 Nov) — verified. Post-CPI rows not yet posted. CoreWeave moving lenders to GPU-backed secured debt (single source) subordinates the unsecured stack | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (261bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (29bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | Marked on 10 Nov: 27,740.80 — verified; 4.96% in favour. 11 Nov unmarked (≈+2.4% intraday). CoreWeave-led rebound; Nvidia call Wed 18 Nov 09:00 AEDT | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it. No profit-taking rule was written, so none is applied |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | Carried on the 10 Nov settle $91.49 — no 11 Nov settle obtained (≈$93.6–93.9 intraday). Iran denies talks; API +9.0mb; Saudi output near pre-war | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Ledger. Four open; 27 closed — 4 right, 16 wrong, 7 scratch; trailing hit rate 4 of 20 decided. No trigger fired and no condition changed. Next-session actions: OAT–Bund 11 Nov dedicated row (V025 — confirm or contradict the 142.4 print); FRED HY/IG/CCC 10 Nov (V017; none for 11 Nov); Nasdaq-100 close 11 Nov (V031; FRED or Yahoo “at close”); Brent January settle 12 Nov (V024).
Portfolio-level read. The book is positioned for the rates shock, and Wednesday was an equity squeeze with the bond market shut. That is the scenario the hedge was sized to give back in, and it gave back: the right response is to leave the pre-committed conditions alone rather than to chase the rally or add to the hedge on a one-stock session (house judgement). No view is opened. A long-dollar or short-yen view at a 19-month DXY high and 159.9 yen would be entering at the point of maximum intervention risk; a long-end view needs the 30-year result first.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The “what changes the view” column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project’s views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — data as of Tue 3 Nov (dated archive files; nets derived). Next file Mon 16 Nov (holiday delay; CFTC, verified) | |||
| Treasuries — TFF leveraged funds, six contracts | net −7,249,305 | −372,034 w/w · gross short 9,355,900 | 2y −1.45m · 5y −2.32m · 10y −2.26m · ultra-10 −258k · bond −166k · ultra-bond −796k (verified). Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure |
| Equity index — TFF LF net | ES −372.3k · NQ +10.1k | ES +28.3k · NQ +7.8k w/w | Legacy non-commercial: ES −129.4k, NQ +42.9k (series named) |
| FX — TFF LF net vs legacy non-comm. | JPY −14.8k / +102.3k · AUD +50.1k / −129.5k · GBP +26.7k / −59.8k | sign split on three of six | EUR −78.6k / −157.8k, NZD −23.2k / −60.0k, CAD −86.3k / −41.8k agree. No claim without the series |
| Gold · WTI — managed money net | +103.6k · +21.7k | −1.9k · −9.4k | Neither crowded long |
| Flows | |||
| BofA Flow Show (w/e 4 Nov, EPFR) | Cash +$140.4bn · equities +$89.2bn | cash 7th largest on record | US equities +$92.3bn (most since June); bonds +$11.6bn; crypto −$1.8bn. Hartnett’s re-risk conditions: end of hiking, 10y below 4.5%, oil below $80 (cash corroborated; rest single source) |
| LSEG Lipper (w/e 4 Nov) | Equity +$38.6bn · MMF +$172.7bn | MMF largest since Apr 2020 | Seventh straight equity inflow (Reuters; corroborated). Different universe from EPFR — not netted |
| ICI money-market assets (4 Nov) | $8.016tn | +$114.5bn | Institutional +$102.3bn (ICI; verified). Long-term funds w/e 28 Oct +$9.36bn |
| Spot BTC ETFs | Tue −$95.0m | Mon–Tue −$296m | Four outflow days; 2026 YTD ≈−$1.1bn; AUM $92.8bn (SoSoValue via Bitcoin.com; corroborated) |
| Sentiment & vol | |||
| VIX · VIX/VIX3M (Tue close) | 19.46 · 0.943 | contango, day 2 | VIX3M 20.64; Wednesday ≈17.4 (15:23 ET) (thetrading.tools; Yahoo) |
| Fear & Greed replica (Tue) · put/call (Mon) | 25 · total 0.88 | from 18 a week ago | Momentum 8, safe-haven 3; equity P/C 0.56 (thetrading.tools). No. 047’s “17” was the 6 Nov reading |
| SKEW (Tue) · Hindenburg | 151.1 · inactive | 83rd pct 1y | 95 new highs, 210 new lows (Tue) |
| Breadth (Tue) | 65.8% above 200-day | ≈70% above 50-day (chart read) | historyofmarket |
| AAII (4 Nov) | Bulls 34.1 · bears 48.4 | −14.3 | Next reading Thu US (verified dates). Long-run averages 37.5 / 31.0 |
| BofA FMS (October) | Disorderly yields top tail (31%) | long semis most crowded (45%) | November survey ≈Tue 17 Nov (inferred; unverified) |
| Valuation, earnings & strategists | |||
| FactSet (6 Nov, 88% reported) | Q3 EPS +31.4% · 84% beat | Fwd P/E 17.7× | 5-yr avg 19.8×; CY26 +33.3%, CY27 +16.1%; Q4 est. +28.4%; bottom-up 12-month target 9,306.85 (FactSet; verified) |
| Strategists (dated 4–11 Nov) | UBS 8,900 end-2027 | BofA “most crowded ticker” | JPMorgan 8,000 reiterated (aggregator, unverified); Goldman 25bp Dec then March hike; MS Wilson floor 7,100–7,300 (carried) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 12 November — US Treasury cash market reopens | ||||||
| Thu | 10:50 · 11:00 | Wed 18:50 · 19:00 | JP PPI (Oct) m/m · y/y · AU consumer inflation expectations (Nov) | 0.3% · 6.5% · 5.4% | −0.3% · 6.8% · 5.3% | M |
| Thu | — | — | RBA Baker (ARCA) — cancelled (RBA; verified) · Cotality final clearance | L | ||
| Thu | ≈12:15 | Wed 20:15 | PBoC USD/CNY fix | 6.7191 | L | |
| Thu | 18:00 | 02:00 | UK Q3 GDP (prelim.) q/q · y/y · Sep m/m · IP · business investment | 0.7% · 1.9% · 0.0% · −0.3% · −0.2% | 0.5% · 1.4% · 0.1% · 0.8% · 1.8% | H |
| Thu | 21:00 | 05:00 | Gilt 2033 and Italian 3y/7y auctions · ECB Economic Bulletin (20:00) | L | ||
| Fri | 00:30 | Thu 08:30 | US initial claims (not shifted for the holiday) · continuing | 195k · 1,720k | 189k · 1,718k | M |
| Fri | 01:00–10:30 | Thu 09:00–18:30 | Fed Hammack, Barr (02:00), Goolsbee, Daly, Williams · existing home sales (02:00) | 3.98m | 3.99m | M |
| Fri | 04:00 | Thu 12:00 | EIA weekly petroleum (moved for Veterans Day; EIA verified) | −1.1mb | API +9.0mb | M |
| Fri | 05:00 | Thu 13:00 | UST 30-year auction ($25bn reopening; Treasury verified) | 10y 5.020% | H | |
| Fri | 06:00 · 06:30 | Thu 14:00 · 14:30 | US Treasury budget (Oct) · Lagarde | −$298bn | M | |
| Fri | ≈08:05 · 08:30 | Thu AMC · 16:30 | Cisco Q1 FY27 · Applied Materials Q4 FY26 (IR; verified) | AMAT EPS ≈$4.06 (unverified) | H | |
| Fri | ≈10:00 | Thu 18:00 Lima | Peru BCRP decision | unverified | 4.25% | L |
| Friday 13 – Saturday 14 November (AEDT) | ||||||
| Fri | 18:00–19:00 | 02:00–03:00 | DE wholesale prices · FR final HICP (Oct) · ES final HICP · ECB Elderson, Schnabel | FR 3.8% y/y | 3.4% | L |
| Fri | 20:00 | 04:00 | IEA Oil Market Report (TE; OPEC MOMR content not found) | H | ||
| Fri | 21:00 | 05:00 | EZ Q3 GDP 2nd est. q/q · y/y · employment | 0.4% · 1.3% | 0.6% · 1.2% | M |
| Fri | window | — | China credit (Oct): new loans · M2 · TSF | CNY1,080bn · 7.2% · CNY3,550bn | M | |
| Sat | 00:30 | Fri 08:30 | US PPI (Oct) m/m · core m/m · y/y | 0.4% · 0.3% · 6.6% | 1.3% · 0.7% · 6.3% (TE) | H |
| Sat | 02:50 · 04:00 · 11:00 | Fri 10:50 · 12:00 · 19:00 | Fed Bowman · Daly · Jefferson · EIA gas storage (02:30) · Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy (after the close) | M | ||
| Monday 16 – Friday 20 November | ||||||
| Mon | 10:50 · 13:00 | Sun 18:50 · 21:00 | JP Q3 GDP q/q (ESRI; verified date) · China activity (Oct): IP, retail, FAI, 70-city prices | 0.1% · — | IP 5.5% · retail 1.1% | H |
| Tue | 00:30 · 07:30 | Mon 08:30 · 15:30 | US Empire State · Canada CPI · CFTC COT (positions 10 Nov; delayed) | 10 · 3.2% | 25.5 · 3.1% | M |
| Tue | 10:00 · 11:30 | Mon 18:00 · 19:30 | RBA Bullock (ASIC panel) · RBA minutes (RBA; verified) | H | ||
| Tue | 18:00 · 21:00 | 02:00 · 05:00 | UK labour (unemployment, pay ex-bonus) · ZEW (EZ / DE) | 4.9% · 2.9% · 14 / 15.9 | 4.7% · 3.7% · 18.5 / 28.1 | H |
| Wed | 00:30 · 01:15 | Tue 08:30 · 09:15 | US retail sales (Oct) · industrial production | H | ||
| Wed | ≈08:20 · 09:00 | Tue ≈16:20 · 17:00 | Nvidia Q3 FY27 results · call (Nvidia IR; verified) | H | ||
| Wed | 11:30 · 18:00 | Tue 19:30 · 02:00 | AU WPI (Q3) (ABS; verified) · UK CPI (Oct) · France Senate PLFSS vote | 0.8% q/q · 3.2% y/y | H | |
| Thu | 06:00 · 11:30 | Wed 14:00 · 19:30 | FOMC minutes (28 Oct meeting) · AU Labour Force (Oct) (ABS; verified) | −39.3k · 4.7% | H | |
| Wed–Thu | — | — | APEC Shenzhen: Trump–Xi (18–19 Nov) · Anthropic IPO pricing (reported) · BI decision (unverified) | H | ||
| Fri | 10:30 · 12:00 | Thu 18:30 · 20:00 | JP CPI (Oct) · PBoC LPR · RBA Fry-McKibbin 11:15 · UK retail sales 18:00 · US options expiry | hold | 3.0% / 3.5% | M |
| The sessions after — into the December decisions | ||||||
| 23–29 Nov | — | — | Flash PMIs, Ifo, ECB minutes · US Q3 GDP 2nd, Oct PCE, Beige Book (25th US) · AU Oct CPI (Wed 25th, ABS verified) · BoK (26th) · Thanksgiving (26th) · NZ official result, S&P on France (27th) · OPEC+ (29th; OPEC verified) · Spain election (29th) | H | ||
| 1–11 Dec | — | — | Bullock (1st) · RBI (4th) · US Nov payrolls (4th, carried) · RBA Tue 8th 14:30 · RBNZ (9th) · BoC 01:45 Thu 10th · FOMC 06:00 Thu 10th + SEP · SNB 19:30 10th · US funding deadline Fri 11th (CRFB; verified) | H | ||
| 14–18 Dec | — | — | G20 Miami (14–15th) · Riksbank (16th) · Norges 20:00, BoE 23:00 (17th) · France ordinance limit (17th) · ECB 00:15 Fri 18th · BoJ Fri 18th · Banxico (17th) | H | ||
Consensus and prior figures are Trading Economics calendar entries as of 11 November unless marked; the page does not label its columns, so the prior/consensus order is inferred and every figure is unverified. Fed Board speaker times are from the Fed calendar; regional-bank times are TE’s. Importance ratings are this desk’s judgement. AEDT = EST + 16h until US DST resumes in March.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Fed goes 50bp, or signals a run of hikes | PPI Sat 00:30; FOMC minutes Thu 19 Nov 06:00; payrolls 4 Dec; decision 06:00 Thu 10 Dec | >25bp 12% (Kalshi, 18:32 UTC 11 Nov); 50bp ≈11% (CME via MPA); January hike 48% (Kalshi, 10 Nov) | 2-year through 4.85% par; dollar higher still; equities de-rate; EM and crypto pressure | 2-year payer spreads; no outright duration |
| 2 | The long end fails at auction | 30-year $25bn Fri 05:00 AEDT; LF net short 7.25m (9.36m gross) | FMS top tail risk: disorderly yields (31%, Oct) | 30-year par above 5.40%; a forced unwind of the short in either direction | Curve options rather than outright |
| 3 | Yen intervention at 160 | USD/JPY ≈159.87; DXY 19-month high; BoJ 18 Dec; Q3 GDP Mon | BoJ Dec hike ≈53% (centralbank.watch, 10 Nov) | USD/JPY towards 150; carry unwind; a hit to the dollar’s CPI rally | Short-dated USD/JPY puts |
| 4 | AI leadership reverses on Nvidia or the IPO calendar | Cisco/AMAT Fri 08:30; Nvidia call Wed 18 Nov 09:00; Anthropic IPO ≈18 Nov (reported); Huang subpoena | FMS most crowded: long semis (45%, Oct) | NDX back through 27,103; KOSPI/TAIEX give back Wednesday; CCC wider | V031; V017 |
| 5 | Short squeeze against hedges | Record MMF cash ($8.02tn ICI; Lipper +$172.7bn); Fear & Greed 25; AAII −14.3 | Index squeeze through the 50-day; V031 decays | Keep hedges as spreads | |
| 6 | Hormuz stays shut while the headlines say otherwise | Rezaei denial; WINEP 37 ships attacked in Oct; blockade in place | Traffic normal by 31 Dec 9% (Polymarket, untimed) | Brent back above $100; TTF higher with EU storage below 73% | V024’s residual call |
| 7 | A deal lands and Brent breaks $85 | Qatari mediation; Saudi/Iraqi output at pre-war levels | Breakevens and the front end lower; the regime’s oil leg met | V024 band ($81.51–84.51) comes into range | |
| 8 | US shutdown after the FOMC | Funding lapses Fri 11 Dec (CRFB; verified) | Shutdown by 12 Dec 38% (Polymarket, thin, untimed) | Data blackout into year-end; bills cheapen | Bill–OIS |
| 9 | Crypto deleveraging through $70k | Four days of ETF outflows; USDT supply −$6.6bn in 60 days (CryptoQuant) | Touch $70k in Nov 53% (Polymarket, untimed) | ETF cost-basis test; spill into high-beta equities | No view open |
| 10 | Trump–Xi in Shenzhen goes wrong | APEC 18–19 Nov; truce to 10 Jan 2027 | CNY reversal; KOSPI/TAIEX and AUD hit through China beta | AUD/USD puts | |
| 11 | France: rating and the 49.3 channel | Senate PLFSS 18 Nov; S&P 27 Nov; PLF 9 Dec; ordinance 17 Dec | OAT–Bund back through 152.9bp then 161.8bp | V025 (High) |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ≈7,619 | ≈7,621 (100-day) · 7,520.93 (10 Nov) · ≈7,325 (200-day) · 7,240–7,310 | ≈7,678 (50-day, falling) · 7,800 | 200-day StockCharts/Zaccardi (corroborated); 50/100-day carried |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈28,413 (15:26 ET) | ≈27,953–27,978 (200-day) · 27,103 · 26,098 | 28,538 · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes) | Range levels investingLive (carried; single source) |
| UST 10y · 2y (par) | 4.98% · 4.73% (10 Nov) | 4.88 · 4.80 · 4.56 (2y, 9 Nov) | 5.05 (28 Oct) · 5.10 · 4.85 (2y) | Regime test: par 10y below 4.85% with a Brent settle under $90 on the same day |
| OAT–Bund | 142.4bp (10 Nov) | 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 152.9 (9 Nov) · 161.8 (3 Nov) · 174.6 (22 Oct) | Dedicated series is the mark; 10 Nov leg conflict flagged |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | ≈4.77 · ≈5.05% | 4.70 · 5.00 | 4.85 · 5.10 | Our reading |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈102.93 · ≈1.1089 · ≈159.87 | 102.26 · 1.1050 · 158.80 | 103.50 · 1.1162 · 160 (intervention zone) | Our reading |
| AUD/USD (RBA) · AUD/NZD (RBA) | 0.6878 · 1.2256 | 0.6850 · 1.2200 | 0.6924 · 1.2400 | No AUD view open |
| Brent (Jan) | ≈$93.6 | $89.70 (10 Nov low) · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $98.32 (6 Nov) · $103.60 (3 Nov) | Our reading |
| Gold · Silver | $3,984.40 · ≈$52.07 | $3,985 (Wed low, Kitco) · $3,920 | $4,067.90 (Wed high) · $4,138.90 | Kitco range |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 9,153.2 | 9,129.0 · 9,029.7 · 8,968.5 | 9,200 · late-August highs | No view open |
| HY / IG / CCC OAS | 334 / 91 / 1,311bp (9 Nov) | HY 305 (to Med, two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) | HY 360 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED; each series carries its own date |
| Bitcoin | $74,383 | ≈$73.2k (200-day) · $72,700 · $70,000 | ≈$76.4k (365-day) · $79–80k | CoinDesk averages; no view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Tuesday-to-Thursday edition on the post-DST clock. The run started at 06:10 AEDT with the US Wednesday session two hours from its close. Six research desks ran in parallel; Asia, Australia, Europe, central banks, positioning and the calendar were written first, and the US-close block was fetched last, after the 16:00 ET bell, as the runbook’s timing protocol requires. At filing (≈09:00 AEDT) the AP tabulation for Wednesday had posted (KRMG syndication) but could not be fetched — the page returned a client error and the La Nación pattern failed twice — and every Yahoo quote page served a cached copy. Under the 22 October convention the four index levels are derived from a dated close wrap (TipRanks, 16:10 ET) against verified AP priors, and labelled; the Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 and VIX are intraday. No oil settle was obtained. Primary reads this run: the official Treasury par curve (rows to 10 Nov) and the Q4 refunding statement; the RBA 4pm table (11 Nov) and “coming up” diary; Hauser’s 5 Nov speech; FRED/ALFRED HY, IG, CCC (9 Nov); the dedicated OAT–Bund series (10 Nov); the CFTC dated archive files (3 Nov) and release schedule; ICI; AAII; FactSet (6 Nov); Kitco; the EIA schedule; the OPEC 1 Nov release; the BoJ, BoE, ECB, SNB, RBNZ and ESRI calendars; the ABS release calendar; Cisco, Applied Materials and Nvidia investor-relations pages; CRFB. Every figure was retrieved on 12 November 2026 (AEDT; 11 November US time); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 047
(1) Russell 2000, 10 Nov (material): the AP tabulation gives 2,821.38 (−19.44, −0.7%), not 2,823.76 (−0.60%) from Yahoo’s post-close bar; Yahoo’s Wednesday change backs out to 2,821.37, agreeing with AP (AP via La Nación; corroborated). The other three Tuesday closes stand (Nasdaq 25,065.87, a 1-cent rounding difference).
(2) CFTC release date (material): the next Commitments of Traders file is delayed to Monday 16 November for the federal holiday (CFTC release schedule; verified), not Friday 13 November as No. 047’s §08 and §09 implied.
(3) Treasury positioning wording: leveraged funds were net short 7,249,305 contracts on 3 November (gross short 9,355,900); No. 047 wrote “short 7.25m” without the qualifier.
(4) Logan: the “at least two more” hikes remark was made on 30 October (Scotsman Guide, Newsquawk), not this week; No. 047 presented it alongside Tuesday’s speakers.
(5) Official par 10 Nov posted: 2y 4.73, 5y 4.81, 10y 4.98, 30y 5.35% (Treasury; verified). No. 047’s vendor reads (≈4.73 / ≈4.99 / ≈5.35) were within 1bp.
(6) Fear & Greed replica: No. 047’s 17 was the 6 November reading; 10 November is 25.
(8) Australian October CPI date (material): the ABS November calendar lists the October CPI on Wednesday 25 November 11:30 (ABS; verified), not Thursday 26 November as No. 047’s data trail and calendar said.
(9) Nasdaq-100 10 Nov: verified at 27,740.80 (−0.60%); No. 047 had it as not obtained.
(10) Discharged: par 10 Nov; OAT–Bund 10 Nov (leg conflict noted); FRED HY 9 Nov (334bp); CoreWeave reaction; Brent/WTI 10 Nov settles re-corroborated (Buckhead). Still open: FRED rows for 10 Nov; RBNZ FSR content (second edition); Cotality 8 Nov final (due today); Lagarde content; SPI settlement source.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
OAT–Bund 10 Nov: the dedicated series (142.4bp) uses an OAT of 4.66% against TE’s ≈4.79%; the TE-derived spread is ≈148bp. The dedicated series is the mark by convention; the conflict is carried to the 11 Nov row. Hang Seng: AP 24,387.06 and NordFX 24,388 against TE 24,315; AP used. Shanghai: AP 3,685.27 against TE’s CFD 3,680.64; AP used. India: HDFC Sky closes tie to Monday; AP’s “+1.6%, six-month high” disregarded. ASX description: “11-month high” (ad-hoc-news) against No. 047’s “highest close in more than two months”; the level ties, the description is unresolved. USD/JPY and AUD/USD: Investing.com’s 157.47 / 0.7019 are stale and excluded. ACGB 10y: 5.05% against 5.07% on two TE pages; 5.05% (ABC agrees). Kalshi December: outcomes sum to 105%; not charted. AU October CPI date: one desk read the ABS calendar as Wednesday 25 November and another as Thursday 26 November (No. 047’s date); a direct fetch of the ABS November calendar lists “Consumer Price Index, Australia (October 2026)” on Wednesday 25 November 11:30 — verified, and a correction to No. 047 (see item 8). FTSE MIB: no source ties to No. 047’s ≈51,644 prior (TE gives 51,755 or 51,831 for Tuesday); not printed. UK GDP prior: 0.5% (TE) against 0.4% (financecalendar). US closes: Business Upturn (15:55 ET) 7,616.77 / 25,454.08 / 52,465.49 against TipRanks’ close percentages (+1.31 / +1.60 / +0.49%); TipRanks used, as the later and closing source. Micron: +5% (TipRanks) against +12% (MarketScreener intraday); unresolved. Oil: Reuters +2.35% at midday against Yahoo’s late WTI +0.34%; no settle.
Single-source and unverified items
CoreWeave GPU-backed borrowing terms (FT via TradingKey) · Kpler and WINEP figures · Hormuz transit counts (aggregator) · Saudi output (TE) · JGB, gilt, Bund, OAT, BTP and ACGB 3y cash yields (TE) · FX except the RBA table (TE, untimed) · PBoC fix date (inferred) · TSMC revenue multiple and Anthropic/OpenAI investment (AP) · GQG move · Westpac sentiment actual (carried from No. 047) · Bowman date · Fed regional speaker times · all TE consensus figures · Polymarket and Kalshi timestamps · JPMorgan target · November FMS date · ETH ETF flows · RBI repo (5paisa) · Spain election date · NZ Finance Minister candidates.
Not obtained
AP tabulation text for 11 Nov · Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 and VIX closes for 11 Nov · Brent and WTI settles for 11 Nov · closing prices for CoreWeave, Nvidia, Micron · post-close CME FedWatch · TOPIX · HS Tech · FTSE MIB and SMI closes · FRED rows for 10 Nov · RBNZ FSR content · Lagarde’s Wednesday remarks · OPEC MOMR content and IEA OMR confirmation · Abu Dhabi talks outcome · Qatari terms for 10–12 Nov · LME copper rows for 10–11 Nov · Wednesday ETF flows · current IG/HY issuance · SpotGamma levels · RSI · BCRP consensus · RBNZ and BoC pricing.
Friday’s first verification targets
(1) 30-year auction result (high yield, WI, tail, cover, indirects). (2) OAT–Bund 11 Nov dedicated row (V025; resolve the leg conflict). (3) FRED HY/IG/CCC 10 Nov (V017). (4) AP tabulation 11 Nov and Nasdaq-100, Russell, VIX closes (V031). (5) Brent January settle 12 Nov and EIA inventories (V024). (6) UK Q3 GDP, US claims, Cisco/AMAT. (7) RBNZ FSR content; Cotality final clearance; AU CPI date. (8) PPI setup.
United States, Fed & politics
- AP via KRMG — 11 Nov tabulation (unreadable at filing) · TipRanks — close wrap · Business Upturn · Yahoo — NDX 10 Nov close · Yahoo — live blog 11 Nov · Reuters via MarketScreener — CoreWeave rally · AP via Korea Times · AP via La Nación — closes 10 Nov
- Treasury — par curve, November · Treasury — refunding statement · TradingKey — CoreWeave · Le Private Banker — Huang deadline · HNGN — Lutnick memo
- MPA — Waller and FedWatch · Seoul Economic Daily — Waller · Scotsman Guide — Logan (30 Oct) · Kalshi via CoinStats · Investing.com — Goldman Fed call · Fed — FOMC calendar
- Cisco IR · AMAT IR · Nvidia IR · financecalendar — claims · Fiscal Times · CBS — leadership votes · CRFB
- CFTC — TFF 3 Nov · legacy CME · release schedule · ICI · AAII · FactSet 6 Nov · thetrading.tools · historyofmarket · finwire — Flow Show · Reuters — Lipper · UBS target
Rates, FX & central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · Hauser, 5 Nov · centralbank.watch — RBA · TE — DXY and FX · TE — CNY fix
- ideal-investisseur — OAT–Bund · TE — Bund · OAT · gilts · JGB · ACGB
- BoJ — schedule · BoE — MPC dates · econostream — ECB · Euronews — Lagarde · RBNZ — FSR · investingLive — Katayama · ONS — GDP release · Continuum — UK GDP preview
- El CEO — Banxico · O Liberal — Copom · Korea Times — BoK · 5paisa — RBI · Bank Indonesia
Australia, New Zealand & Asia
- ad-hoc-news — ASX close · ABC — markets live 11 Nov · ABC — markets live 12 Nov · Investing.com — ASX breadth · MarketScreener — CBA · Motley Fool — CBA · TE — AU calendar · ABS — release calendar · PIP — property
- TE — NZX 50 · AP via KSAT — Asia close · TE — TAIEX · TE — China · TE — Hang Seng · TE — China calendar · HDFC Sky — India · ESRI — GDP date · MUFG — BoJ
Europe & geopolitics
- HL/Sharecast — Europe close · London close · TE — DAX · CAC · IBEX · TE — calendar · Newsquawk — November calendar
- Al Jazeera — Iran live 11 Nov · Leningrad drones · Fairford plot · Al-Monitor — two-day window · Times of Israel — Rezaei (20 Oct)
Commodities, credit & digital assets
- OilPrice — Brent ≈$94 · Reuters via Business Recorder · Reuters via GV Wire — oil 11 Nov · OilPrice · Buckhead · EIA schedule · OPEC — 1 Nov · straits.live (aggregator) · Polymarket — Hormuz
- Kitco — gold · TE — metals · Westmetall · FRED — HY · IG · CCC
- CoinGecko · CoinDesk — Daybook · CoinDesk — ETF outflows · Bitcoin.com — flows · Polymarket — BTC · Polymarket — shutdown