The bottom line
- The RBA hiked to 4.85% but split 6–3 and dropped “increasing the cash rate further if needed”, and the market priced a pause. It is the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2008 (RBA; verified). The SMP lifts end-2026 headline CPI to 4.5% and trimmed mean to 3.6%, with unemployment rising to 5.1% by end-2028 (RBA SMP; column alignment derived). Bullock: “probably a good point to just take stock”. ASX 30-day futures now hold only ≈18% of a further 25bp by February and ≈26% by March (derived from verified settles), against ≈22% for February before the meeting. The 3-year futures yield fell ≈7.5bp to ≈4.75% and the AUD lost 0.67% on the RBA table to 0.6976. The read is a dovish hike: the front end will trade the housing and unemployment data, not inflation, until the February SMP.
- V023 is one close from its stop: AUD/NZD printed 1.2404 on the RBA table, four pips above 1.2400. The cross fell 0.81% on the day (RBA; verified), and New York quotes later put it nearer ≈1.236 (derived from AUD ≈0.7015 and NZD ≈0.5616–0.5677, with the NZD level conflicted). A second RBA-table close below 1.2400 fires the pre-committed stop, which still scores RIGHT against the ≈1.2315 entry. NZ’s Q3 labour data (consensus 5.5% unemployment) printed at 08:45 but was not obtained at filing; today’s 4pm table is the mark.
- The US votes have started to be counted; markets went in with chips bid and the Dow lower. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92, the Nasdaq 0.83% to 25,372.01 and the Russell 0.27%, while the Dow fell 0.38% to 51,786.72 (Yahoo post-close header; single source, arithmetic ties). The VIX eased to 20.80. Prediction markets give Democrats ≈94% for the House and 76–78% for the Senate (prediction.com aggregate; corroborated on direction). First polls close at 10:00 AEDT; California could hold up the House call for weeks. AMD beat after the close: revenue $13.38bn against $13.09bn, Q4 guide ≈$17bn against $16.23bn (press release via StockTitan; corroborated), shares initially ≈+6% after hours (single source).
- High-yield spreads widened 18bp on Friday and held there, which is what V017 was written for. FRED finally posted: HY OAS 344bp on 30 October and 343bp on 2 November, from 326bp; IG 94bp and CCC 1,327bp on 30 October (FRED; verified). The week’s hyperscaler issuance (Microsoft at least $25bn, its first US high-grade deal since 2017; Oracle; Alphabet) lands on a market that is already wider. V017’s mirror (two HY prints below 305bp) is now 38bp away. The refunding statement is 00:30 AEDT Thursday; Treasury’s estimates published Monday are $618bn for October–December and $800bn for January–March (Treasury; verified).
- Oil held Monday’s 8% fall through a US strike on Qeshm Island and Iran calling itself “in a state of war”. Brent January settled $103.60 (−1.1%; Bloomberg via Rigzone) after a $100.80–107.24 range; Monday’s settle is now confirmed at $104.77. WTI December settled $96.09 (−$0.37; Newsquawk and Bloomberg; verified). The IRGC says three tankers struck mines in Hormuz; Qatar has a draft deal out and mediators expect replies within 36 hours (Reuters via Newsquawk). The post-vote decision between strikes and a deal is the largest gap risk in the book, and V024’s January band ($81.51–84.51) is ≈$19 below the settle.
- Asia: North Asian tech fell 3.6% while India and Hong Kong rose; gold eased. The KOSPI fell 3.59% to 5,648.79 (Seoul Economic Daily, TE; corroborated) and the TAIEX 3.59% to 43,307.54 (TE; single source), with SK hynix −5.6% and MediaTek −7.4%. The Hang Seng rose 0.57% to 23,525.97 and the Sensex 1.62%. The PBoC fixed at 6.7150 against a 6.6489 estimate and lifted the FX reserve requirement to 6% from 15 November (corroborated), leaning against yuan weakness and strength at once. Gold slipped 0.6% to ≈$3,920 (Kitco; verified). The ASX 200 rose 0.34% to 8,886.80, 13.2 points under V006’s 8,900 line.
Overnight recap
Australia and Asia, Tuesday 3 November
The RBA raised the cash rate target 25bp to 4.85% at 14:30 on a 6–3 vote, three members preferring to hold (RBA media release mr-26-30; verified). The statement kept “inflation remains elevated … broadly based”, pushed the return to the top of the band to late 2027, and warned of a rising risk that higher inflation expectations become embedded, but it said the economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and unemployment has risen. The explicit line about raising the cash rate further if needed was dropped (StoneX, TE; corroborated). Bullock in the press conference: “We will need to raise interest rates to the extent that we need to get inflation down. I don’t know how high that is”, five hikes are “in the system” and “the last couple haven’t even started to flow through yet”, and it is “probably a good point to just take stock” (Domain, ABC; corroborated). The hike had been ≈80–89% priced (our derivation from Monday’s settle; ABC 89.2% at 12:15).
The ASX 200 rose 30.30 points (+0.34%) to 8,886.80 (AAP via Yahoo AU, TE ≈8,887, ABC “up 0.3%”; corroborated, ties to 8,856.50). Seven of 11 sectors rose: real estate +2.88% (Stockland +3.96%, Lendlease +5.51%) and consumer discretionary +1.87% (Harvey Norman +5.81%) led on the dovish read; REA Group rose 3.77% to $166.16. Energy fell 3.45% with oil (Viva −6.57%, Ampol −4.95%, Woodside ≈−3.5%) while Qantas (≈+6.4%) and Virgin Australia (≈+7.1%) rallied; AMP fell 9.36% on a Barrenjoey downgrade (AAP; single source for sectors). The All Ordinaries rose 0.35% to 9,008.90. The SPI December contract settled 8,897 (+31) (ASX; verified); a single overnight indication had ASX futures ≈−0.3% (The Bottom Line NZ; single source). CBA now expects no further hikes and cuts from August 2027; ANZ flags a risk of 5.10% by December or February; UBS called the statement “clearly dovish” (ABC, Domain; corroborated). Macquarie was first to pass the full 25bp on, from 19 November.
Tokyo was closed for Culture Day. North Asian tech sold off after Monday’s Nasdaq fall: the KOSPI fell 210.29 (−3.59%) to 5,648.79 (Samsung −4.6%, SK hynix −5.6%; Seoul Economic Daily; corroborated) and the KOSDAQ 4.08%; the TAIEX fell 3.59% to 43,307.54 (MediaTek −7.4%, ASE −8.6%, TSMC −1.5%; TE, single source, and the identical percentage to the KOSPI is a coincidence to treat with care). Shanghai fell 0.82% to 3,608.10 (Cambricon −10.8%) and the CSI 300 0.20% (TE; single source), but the Hang Seng rose 0.57% to 23,525.97 (ad-hoc-news, TE; corroborated; Trip.com +6.3%). India extended its rally: Sensex +1.62% to 76,917.85, Nifty +1.58% to 23,810.85 (TE; single source). Korea’s October CPI was 2.8% y/y against 2.9% expected (Korea Herald, Newsquawk). The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7150 against a 6.6489 estimate (Newsquawk, Tradingpedia; corroborated) and raised the FX deposit reserve ratio to 6% from 4%, effective 15 November.
Europe, Tuesday 3 November
Europe turned defensive on the Qeshm strike, the mine reports and the vote. The Stoxx 600 fell ≈0.58% to ≈645.7 (Irish Times wire; ties to Monday’s level), the DAX 0.43% to 25,864.90 (derived against Monday’s 25,975.30; TE’s own change does not tie), the CAC ≈0.47% to ≈8,010 and the IBEX ≈0.99%; the FTSE 100 fell ≈1.1% to 10,638–10,651 (wire and TE conflict) as basic resources dropped 2.6% (Antofagasta −3.5%, Glencore −2.8%). FTSE MIB and SMI closes were not obtained. Zalando fell 6.6%, Adidas 2.8% on a UBS sell rating; Philips (+4.8%), Lufthansa (+3.9%) and Bayer rose (Newsquawk, ZeroHedge; corroborated). Swiss October CPI printed 1.5% y/y against 1.3% expected, and Ireland’s HICP flash 2.5% (Newsquawk; verified as reported). Sovereigns gave back part of Monday: Bund ≈3.33% (+4bp), OAT ≈4.94% (+4bp), BTP ≈4.47%, gilt 10-year ≈5.25–5.27% (TE; single source). ECB speakers stayed hawkish: Nagel said a December hike is “very likely necessary”; Kocher, Radev and Moulin leaned the same way (Econostream; corroborated). Germany’s Bobl auction was uncovered (€3.84bn against a €5bn target, 1.4x).
United States, Tuesday 3 November
A split Election Day session. The S&P 500 rose 27.52 (+0.36%) to 7,568.92, the Nasdaq Composite 207.65 (+0.83%) to 25,372.01 and the Russell 2000 7.60 (+0.27%) to 2,813.48, while the Dow fell 197.26 (−0.38%) to 51,786.72 (Yahoo post-close header, Dow stamped 16:09:44 EST; single source, each change ties exactly to Monday’s close; TheStreet corroborates direction). The VIX fell 1.66% to 20.80. Chips led from the open (Micron ≈+4%, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Intel ≈+3%; StockTitan via CNBC, intraday) and AMD closed +3.65% at $483.90 into results. Apple fell ≈2% after a gross-margin guide of 45–46% against 46.5% expected and a China miss; Palantir fell ≈3–5% on slower US commercial bookings; Gartner (−12.8%), Dynatrace and Shopify (−15%) were the heaviest fallers (Schwab, MarketScreener, TheStreet; corroborated). The Nasdaq-100 close was not obtained.
Data and rates. September JOLTS openings were 7.5m against 7.13m expected, with August revised up 111k to 7.2m; quits 3.4m, layoffs 1.6m (BLS; verified). Factory orders rose 1.8% against ≈+1.2% (RTTNews; corroborated). Treasuries sold off: the 10-year ended ≈4.95% (+≈6bp on the Yahoo close against Monday’s vendor ≈4.89%; MarketScreener’s header shows +3.3bp, §13), the 2-year ≈4.62% and the 30-year ≈5.33% (MarketScreener 15:58 ET; changes derived). The official par curve for Monday 2 November posted: 2-year 4.59%, 5-year 4.70%, 10-year 4.91%, 30-year 5.28% (Treasury; verified), a bull-flattening of 3bp at the long end against 30 October. December hike pricing stays ≈72.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket (Mon 18:07 ET; stale) and ≈77% on CME (Schwab, 09:16 ET Tue; secondary). Treasury’s borrowing estimates: $618bn for October–December with an $850bn end-December cash balance, $10bn below August’s estimate, and $800bn for January–March (Treasury sb0675; verified). Gold eased 0.6% to ≈$3,920 (Kitco ≈16:05 ET; verified). Brent January settled $103.60 and WTI December $96.09.
After the bell. AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.38bn (+45% y/y) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 against $13.09bn and $1.95, Data Center $8.5bn (+97%), and guided Q4 to ≈$17bn ±3% against $16.23bn (GlobeNewswire via StockTitan, 24/7 Wall St; corroborated). The shares were initially ≈+6% after hours (single source). Super Micro and Arista results were not obtained.
Geopolitics overnight
Iran. The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in what officials called a “small-scale”, “defensive” action after an IRGC launcher fired at a US aircraft (Axios via ZeroHedge, Al Jazeera; corroborated); Energy Secretary Wright said oil flows were unaffected. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the country is “now in a state of war”, the IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire after striking mines in Hormuz, and the Basij said it faces no limits on missile targets (Newsquawk; single source chain). Diplomacy continues in parallel: Iran’s two-day reopening plan (sanctions relief, release of ≈$6bn in Qatar, an end to the naval blockade, a wider ceasefire including Lebanon, an Iran–Oman route under Iranian supervision) has no formal US answer; Qatar’s team is back in Doha with a draft and mediators expect US and Iranian feedback within 36 hours (Reuters via Newsquawk, 12:17 UTC). Trump said it ends “one way or the other” and did not rule out strikes after the vote; Netanyahu is pressing for strikes (Axios). Windward counted 8 transits on 1 November, 3 of them dark; Kpler has Hormuz crude exports at 7.3m b/d in the latest week, more than 40% below pre-war (Petroleum Economist). Russia–Ukraine. The Kremlin confirmed three-way talks in Abu Dhabi next week, with working sessions reported for 10–11 November. US–China. Vice Minister Li met a US agricultural delegation; no new export controls were found. Crypto. Binance’s net outflows reached $5.28bn over the 46 hours after withdrawals reopened, with hourly flows back to small net deposits by 03:00 UTC Tuesday (CoinDesk, The Block; corroborated, data from the CEO).
Market dashboard
Week to date: change since Friday 30 October
| Equities | Close | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,568.92 | +0.36% | −0.15% | Yahoo post-close header (single source; +27.52 ties to 7,541.40). AP not yet indexed |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,786.72 · 25,372.01 | −0.38% · +0.83% | +0.03% · −0.26% | Same source; Nasdaq ties to Monday’s 25,164.36 (No. 041 printed .32, §13) |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | 2,813.48 · — | +0.27% · — | +0.06% · — | NDX Tuesday close not obtained. Monday 27,989.82 corroborated (Yahoo ^NDX, T&I News), replacing the derived ≈27,999 |
| VIX | 20.80 | −1.66% | +7.1% | Yahoo (single source). VIX/VIX3M 0.979 on Monday, still contango |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | ≈645.7 · 25,864.90 | ≈−0.58% · −0.43% | ≈−0.16% · +0.20% | Stoxx from wire % on Monday’s TE level; DAX change derived (TE’s own does not tie) |
| FTSE 100 · CAC 40 | ≈10,645 · ≈8,010 | ≈−1.1% · ≈−0.47% | ≈−0.8% · ≈+0.5% | FTSE conflict: TE 10,650.68, wire 10,638.43. CAC may be a late CFD print. MIB, SMI not obtained |
| Nikkei 225 | 63,081.86 (Mon) | closed | −0.33% | Tokyo closed Tuesday (Culture Day) |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,608.10 · 4,008.87 | −0.82% · −0.20% | +0.25% · — | TE (single source). AI names led the fall (Cambricon −10.8%) |
| Hang Seng | 23,525.97 | +0.57% | +0.99% | Corroborated (ad-hoc-news, TE). HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,648.79 · 43,307.54 | −3.59% · −3.59% | −1.43% · −4.22% | KOSPI corroborated (Seoul Economic Daily, TE); TAIEX TE only. KOSDAQ −4.08% |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 76,917.85 · 23,810.85 | +1.62% · +1.58% | +3.31% · — | TE (single source); FPI buying ₹31.15bn Monday |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,886.80 | +0.34% | −0.24% | Corroborated (AAP, TE, ABC); ties to 8,856.50 + 30.30. V006: 0 of 2, 13.2 points below 8,900. All Ords 9,008.90. SPI Dec settle 8,897 (+31; ASX, verified) |
| NZX 50 | 13,720.26 | +0.16% | ≈−0.5% | TE (single source) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Ref. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 2y · 10y · 30y (vendor, Tue) | ≈4.62 · ≈4.95 · ≈5.33% | ≈+4 · ≈+6 · ≈+8bp | vs Mon vendor | Yahoo 10y 4.952 (+5.8bp); MarketScreener 15:58 ET, header +3.3bp (conflict, §13). Changes derived against No. 041’s vendor levels |
| Official par 2y · 10y · 30y (Mon 2 Nov) | 4.59 · 4.91 · 5.28% | +3 · −3 · −3bp | vs 30 Oct par | Verified (Treasury). 5s30s 58bp, 2s10s 32bp. 3 Nov row posts ≈10:00 AEDT today |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.26 · ≈5.70% | ≈+6 · ≈+1bp | TE; the UK and German pages disagree on the 10-year (5.27 vs 5.25) | |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | ≈3.33 · ≈4.94 · ≈4.47% | ≈+4 · ≈+4 · ≈+6bp | TE (single source). Bobl auction uncovered | |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 159.9bp (2 Nov) | +0.9bp | 159.0 (30 Oct) | Verified (ideal-investisseur; OAT 4.91 / Bund 3.31). 3 Nov row not posted. V025 mark |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.77 · ≈3.88% | closed | Monday levels; Tokyo closed | |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | ≈4.89 · ≈4.80 · ≈5.10% | ≈−6 · ≈−6 · ≈−5bp | TE (single source). YT Dec 95.250 (+0.075, ≈4.75%) and XT Dec 94.905 (+0.045, ≈5.095%) (ASX; verified, yields derived) | |
| Canada 10y | ≈3.74–3.76% | ≈0bp | TE page and table conflict | |
| US HY OAS | 343bp (2 Nov) | −1bp | 344 (30 Oct) · 326 (29 Oct) | Verified (FRED). +18bp on 30 Oct. 3 Nov not posted |
| US IG · CCC OAS | 94 · 1,327bp (30 Oct) | +5 · +2bp | 89 · 1,325 (29 Oct) | Verified (FRED); 2 Nov not posted. Each series carries its own date |
| FX | Tue | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈101.82 | ≈+0.15% | ≈−0.1% | TE (no time); Schwab 101.83 at 09:16 ET (corroborated). Close not obtained |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.120 · ≈1.34 | ≈−0.1 to −0.3% · ≈0% | ≈+0.4% | TE 1.1195, Yahoo 1.1206, MarketScreener 1.1191 (unverified) |
| USD/JPY | ≈157.2–158.5 | conflicted | — | Yahoo 157.17 (−0.56%, late) against TE 158.50 (earlier); Investing page stale. Not resolved |
| AUD/USD | 0.6976 (RBA) · ≈0.7015 (NY) | −0.67% (RBA) | −0.91% (RBA) | RBA 4pm verified, post-decision. Low 0.6962 (Newsquawk). Two-week low below 0.70 |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2404 (RBA) · ≈0.5616 | −0.81% (RBA) | −0.61% (RBA) | RBA 4pm verified. V023: 4 pips above the 1.2400 stop (0 of 2). NZD: TE/Reuters 0.5616 against Yahoo 0.5677 (conflict) |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.3993 · ≈0.8206 | ≈+0.1 · ≈+0.3% | TE (unverified). Swiss CPI beat | |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.672 · 6.7150 | ≈+0.4% | Fix 6.7150 vs 6.6489 estimate (corroborated): ≈660 pips weak of the model. FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov | |
| USD/MXN · INR · KRW | ≈18.85 · ≈94.83 · ≈1,344 | ≈+1.6 · ≈0 · ≈0% | TE (unverified; MXN move large, KRW possibly stale) |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent JANUARY | $103.60 | −1.12% | −8.67% | Settle (Bloomberg via Rigzone; verified as reported). Range $100.80–107.24. Mon settle $104.77 now confirmed (Reuters via two outlets, TE prior) |
| WTI DECEMBER | $96.09 | −0.38% | −7.71% | Settle −$0.37 (Newsquawk, Bloomberg; verified). Brent–WTI ≈$7.51 |
| Gold (spot) · silver · platinum | $3,920.00 · ≈$49.75 · ≈$1,437 | −0.63% · ≈−1.8% · ≈−1.2% | +1.18% · — · — | Gold Kitco bid ≈16:05 ET (verified; Kitco’s own change −25.70 does not tie to our $3,944.80 prior). Silver, platinum TE |
| Henry Hub · TTF | ≈$2.895 · ≈€90.95 | ≈+1.4% · ≈−4.1% | — · ≈−12.5% | oilprice.com, TE (corroborated HH). EU storage 74.6%, lowest for the date on record (TE) |
| Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX | $14,449 · $14,250 (30 Oct) · ≈$6.38/lb | — · — · ≈−2.6% | — | Westmetall 2–3 Nov not posted. COMEX TE (single source); Chile Q3 output a two-decade low |
| Iron ore · aluminium | $90.70 (61%, MMI) · ≈$3,095 | ≈−0.1% · ≈+1.1% | — | MMI seaborne 61% (single source); DCE −0.52%. TE 62% $91.25 dated 2 Nov |
| Lithium carb. · uranium | CNY93,800 · ≈$92.15 | +0.3% · ≈−0.4% | — | TE |
| Bitcoin | ≈$77,800 | ≈+1.5% | ≈−0.2% | Yahoo header ≈21:12 UTC ($77,834); CoinGecko $77,468 at ≈19:15 UTC (both unverified, no exchange stamp) |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,287 · $93.26 · $1.28 · $696 | 24h signs ambiguous | — | CoinGecko ≈19:15 UTC. Total cap ≈$2.70tn; dominance 57.7% |
| Spot ETF flows (2 Nov) | BTC −$398.6m · ETH −$139.7m | 2nd · 6th outflow day | — | Farside via NewsBTC and Bloomingbit (corroborated). IBIT −$405.3m. 3 Nov not published |
Conventions: 1d is Tuesday 3 November; WTD is the change since Friday 30 October’s close, from No. 040–041’s verified or corroborated priors. US cash closes are from one post-close source whose changes tie exactly to Monday’s closes; the AP tabulation will replace them if it differs. Treasury vendor levels and the official par curve are shown on separate rows and never mixed in a change. FX is New York unless marked RBA 4pm. Trading Economics’ change columns are not used; levels only. “—” means not obtained.
What is driving markets
1. AI capex: from Alphabet’s cash burn to a sector correction
Tuesday was a relief day in US chips and a capitulation day in Asian ones. The Nasdaq rose 0.83% and AMD 3.65% into results while the KOSPI and TAIEX each fell 3.59%, the Asian markets trading Monday’s US fall a session late. AMD then beat on revenue ($13.38bn against $13.09bn) and guided Q4 to ≈$17bn against $16.23bn, with Data Center +97% (press release via StockTitan; corroborated). The Nasdaq-100 ended Monday at 27,989.82, more than 10% below its 6 October record of 31,224.47 and formally in correction (Yahoo ^NDX, T&I News; corroborated). The financing side is now visible in the credit data: FRED HY widened 18bp to 344bp on 30 October and held at 343bp on 2 November, while Microsoft’s first US high-grade deal since 2017 (at least $25bn, up to 10 tranches, guidance T+50–55bp for the 2-year) and Oracle’s debt raise came to market (Dataconomy, Bloomberg headline; corroborated). Morgan Stanley’s Wilson (26 Oct) sees the three catalysts (capex, funding, data-centre opposition) coming “to a head” within three to four weeks, with S&P downside to 7,100–7,200 before 8,000 at year-end (investingLive; corroborated). BofA (30 Oct) forecasts hyperscaler capex of $1.2tn in 2027 with free cash flow of −$180bn.
2. Washington’s week: a firm labour signal, a refunding and the midterm count
September JOLTS printed 7.5m openings against 7.13m expected, with August revised up to 7.2m (BLS; verified), and the 10-year rose ≈6bp to ≈4.95% (Yahoo; MarketScreener shows +3.3bp, §13). That reverses most of Monday’s oil-driven rally; Monday’s official par 10-year was 4.91%. December hike pricing has not moved off ≈73–77%. Treasury’s estimates for the refunding were lighter than feared at the front of the year: $618bn for October–December, $10bn below August’s estimate because the opening cash balance was higher, and $800bn for January–March including a $150bn cash build; TheStreet’s reading is that bills carry most of the increase (Treasury; verified; analysis single source). Barclays expects coupon sizes unchanged (single source). On the vote, prediction markets give Democrats ≈94% for the House and 76–78% for the Senate (prediction.com aggregate, Kalshi, Polymarket; corroborated on direction); JPMorgan puts a blue wave at 66% and sees the S&P between −0.25% and +0.5% in that case, with long-end yields lower (TheStreet; single source). First polls close at 10:00 AEDT; the House call could take days or weeks because of California.
3. Oil: a reopening plan, a strike and mines, and Brent holds $100
Brent January settled $103.60 on Tuesday after trading $100.80–107.24 (Bloomberg via Rigzone; Newsquawk range), so the market absorbed a US strike on Qeshm Island, Iran declaring itself “in a state of war” and IRGC reports of three tankers hitting mines without giving back Monday’s fall. WTI December settled $96.09. The reason is that the diplomatic track is still moving: Qatar has a draft, mediators expect US and Iranian replies within 36 hours, and Iran’s president says the Supreme Leader has authorised talks on issues previously off the table (Reuters via Newsquawk, TE; corroborated). Physical flows are still constrained: Kpler has Hormuz crude exports at 7.3m b/d in the latest week against 11.1m b/d on average in October, and Windward counted 8 transits on 1 November (Petroleum Economist, Windward; verified as provider data). OPEC+ held December quotas at 31.01m b/d and meets in full on 29 November. EU gas storage is 74.6% full, the lowest for the date on record, and TTF fell ≈4% to ≈€91 (TE; single source).
4. France and the ECB: the spread re-widens and TPI re-enters the conversation
The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 159.9bp on 2 November (OAT 4.91%, Bund 3.31%; verified), 0.9bp wider than Friday despite the broad Monday rally, and TE’s legs had both up ≈4bp on Tuesday. Fitch moved France’s outlook to negative on 30 October, with debt seen near 124% of GDP by 2028 and Q3 GDP contracting (Reuters via WSAU; corroborated as to the action; the rating level is not stated in that source). ECB speakers have converged on December: Nagel said a hike is “very likely necessary”, Escrivá called rising sovereign premia “healthy”, and Moulin said the ECB must stop inflation spreading beyond energy (Econostream, Newsquawk; corroborated). Germany’s 2031 Bobl auction drew bids of only 1.4x for €3.84bn against a €5bn target. The euro-area October flash HICP is listed for this week (prior 3.8%, core 2.5%). The Senate takes the social-security bill on 9 November (not re-confirmed this run).
5. Australia: a dovish hike, a falling housing market, and the ASX on the line
The RBA delivered the hike and removed the guidance. The cash rate is 4.85% after 125bp of tightening in 2026, on a 6–3 vote; the statement no longer says the Board will raise further if needed and instead says policy is “well placed to respond to developments” (RBA; verified). The SMP raises end-2026 headline CPI to 4.5% (from 3.6% in August) and trimmed mean to 3.6%, has inflation at the top of the band only in late 2027, and lifts the unemployment path to 5.1% by end-2028 (RBA SMP PDF; table alignment derived, corroborated by ABC and Sharetrader). The market took that as the peak: ASX 30-day futures settled at 95.180 (November), 95.150 (December), 95.145 (January), 95.105 (February) and 95.085 (March) (ASX; verified), which implies ≈18% of a further 25bp by February and ≈26% by March (derived). The 3-year futures yield fell ≈7.5bp. Real estate (+2.88%) and discretionary (+1.87%) led the ASX higher; CBA now forecasts cuts from August 2027 and a 14% peak-to-trough house-price fall.
Central bank watch
Pricing for the 9 December FOMC, by source
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp) | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP | Dec +25bp 72.5% Kalshi/Polymarket (Mon 18:07 ET, stale); 77% CME (Tue 09:16 ET, secondary). JOLTS 7.5m firm | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.85% | +25bp 3 Nov, 6–3 (fifth of 2026); tightening line dropped | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 (carried) | ≈0% Dec · Feb ≈18% · Mar ≈26% of another 25bp (derived from ASX IB settles 3 Nov). CBA: cuts from Aug 2027 | Hiked, now on hold |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | Held 29 Oct | Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45 | December hike signalled; Nagel “very likely necessary”; Reuters sources: hike then pause (corroborated) | Hawkish hold |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%) | Fri 18 Dec (BoJ; verified) | December seen as live. September minutes Thu; Summary of Opinions Tue 10 Nov; Ueda Fri | Hawkish hold |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | +25bp to 4.00% ≈96% priced (DB via ZeroHedge); Reuters poll 54 of 63 for a hike (corroborated). Vote split not obtained | Hike priced |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 | Wed 9 Dec 12:00 + MPS | ≈75% for a Dec hike (TE; single source). Q3 labour data today 08:45 (not obtained) | Tightening bias, delayed |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct | Thu 10 Dec 01:45 | Not refreshed. Federal budget Thu 5 Nov | Hiking, careful |
| SNB | 0.00% | Held 24 Sep | Thu 10 Dec | Swiss CPI 1.5% vs 1.3%; hike bets may move toward mid-2027 (Newsquawk) | On hold |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Riks held Sep · Norges +25bp Sep (carried) | Riks Wed 4 Nov 19:30 · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Riksbank +25bp to 2.00% consensus (≈70% priced; corroborated); Norges hold, no MPR | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct; FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov | LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00 | 3 Nov fix 6.7150 vs 6.6489 estimate (corroborated); relending rate cut to 1% for buyback loans (TE; single source) | Supporting equities, managing CNY |
| Emerging markets | |||||
| Brazil (BCB) | 13.75% | −25bp 16 Sep | Copom Wed (≈08:30 Thu AEDT) | Focus (stale) −25bp to 13.50% vs calendar hold; conflict persists | Watch |
| Mexico (Banxico) · Poland (NBP) | 6.50% · 3.75% | Both holding | Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 · NBP Wed 4 Nov (unconfirmed) | Hold expected for both | Hold |
| Malaysia (BNM) · Korea (BoK) · India (RBI) | 2.75% · 3.00% · 5.50% | BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct | BNM Nov (unconfirmed) · BoK 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec | Korea CPI 2.8% vs 2.9% expected | Mixed |
RBA read-out. Three changes matter. The vote split (6–3, the three preferring a hold because they weight housing and unemployment more heavily, per Bullock) shows the Board is close to its limit. The guidance moved from an explicit tightening bias to “well placed to respond to developments”. And the forecasts carry the hold case: the cash-rate assumption peaks around 4.9% in early 2027 on the market path of 28 October (StoneX’s reading of the SMP), unemployment rises every half-year to 5.1%, and trimmed mean is back to 2.5% only by mid-2028. Against that, headline CPI is forecast at 4.5% at end-2026, and Westpac flags a February risk if energy prices escalate. Our read: the next move is more likely a long hold than a sixth hike, and February’s ≈18% is fair.
Fed. JOLTS at 7.5m and Friday’s Musalem, Logan and Barkin remarks keep December live at ≈73–77%. Hammack and Barkin speak Thursday, Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman Friday. ISM services (Thursday 02:00) and payrolls (Saturday 00:30; consensus +55–65k) come first.
BoE Thursday. A 25bp hike to 4.00% is near fully priced. The MPR and the vote split decide whether February is priced further; gilts sold off ≈6bp on Tuesday after Monday’s rally.
Regional briefs
United States
Firm openings, a split tape, and the count begins. S&P +0.36% to 7,568.92, Nasdaq +0.83%, Dow −0.38% (single source, arithmetic ties). JOLTS 7.5m against 7.13m; factory orders +1.8%. The 10-year ≈4.95%. AMD beat and raised after the close; Apple fell on margins and China; Palantir on bookings. Today: results from 10:00 AEDT; ADP (cons 67–69k, prior 90k) and the refunding at 00:15 and 00:30 Thursday AEDT, ISM services 02:00 (cons 54.7–54.9). Government funding runs to 11 December. FactSet (30 Oct): Q3 EPS +30.2% blended, 82% beating, forward P/E 18.7 (verified).
Euro area
Defensive equities, softer Bunds, hawkish ECB. Stoxx 600 ≈−0.6%, DAX −0.43%; miners and tech led lower, healthcare and defensives held. The Bobl auction was uncovered (1.4x). Nagel, Kocher, Radev and Moulin all leaned toward December. OAT–Bund 159.9bp (2 Nov, verified). Ireland’s HICP flash fell to 2.5%. The flash euro-area HICP for October is listed this week (prior 3.8%).
United Kingdom
FTSE −1.1% on miners and oil; gilts back up. The FTSE 100 closed 10,638–10,651 (two sources) as basic resources fell 2.6% and BP and Shell slipped 1.5–2%. The 2037 green gilt drew 3.38x at 5.268%. Gilt 10-year ≈5.26%. BoE Thursday 23:00 AEDT: a hike to 4.00% is ≈96% priced.
Japan
Closed Tuesday; reopens into a weak North Asian tape. The Nikkei last closed 63,081.86 (Monday). With Korea and Taiwan −3.6% and AMD’s beat after hours, today’s open trades two US sessions at once. USD/JPY quotes conflict (157.2–158.5). BoJ September minutes Thursday, Ueda Friday, decision 18 December.
China & Hong Kong
Support for stocks, management of the yuan. Shanghai −0.82% as AI names fell (Cambricon −10.8%); the Hang Seng +0.57%. The PBoC fixed 6.7150 against 6.6489 and raised the FX deposit reserve ratio to 6% from 15 November; it also said it would resume the securities swap facility “when necessary” and cut the relending rate for buyback loans to 1% (TE; single source). The October manufacturing PMI (RatingDog) was 52.0; services prints today at 12:45. CPI Monday, trade Tuesday.
Emerging markets and the Middle East
Korea and Taiwan sell AI; India buys everything else. KOSPI −3.59%, TAIEX −3.59%, KOSDAQ −4.08%; Sensex +1.62% on foreign buying. Korea CPI eased to 2.8%. Iran: Qeshm strike, mine reports and a “state of war” statement on one side; a Doha draft with replies due within 36 hours on the other (§02). Israel: Netanyahu disputes the 27 October election result as coalition talks proceed (Al Jazeera, ABC). Russia–Ukraine: three-way talks in Abu Dhabi next week. Copom decides tonight Brasília time; consensus conflicts.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA at 4.85%
The Board raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.85% on a 6–3 vote, the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest since late 2008 (RBA; verified). The statement keeps inflation “elevated … broadly based” and capacity “a little tighter”, notes fuel costs passing through to other prices, but describes a slowing economy, significantly lower housing prices and rising unemployment, and replaces its tightening bias with “well placed to respond to developments”. SMP (year-ended, August in brackets): headline CPI 4.5% (3.6%) at Dec-26, 3.7% (2.8%) at Jun-27, 2.7% at Dec-27; trimmed mean 3.6% (3.3%), 3.5% (3.0%), 2.9%, 2.5% at Jun-28; unemployment 4.7% rising to 5.1% by Dec-28; GDP 1.3–1.6% (RBA SMP; alignment derived from a garbled extraction, corroborated by ABC and Sharetrader; the text’s “above 3% until end-2027” conflicts with the 2.7% Dec-27 cell, §13). Bullock does not want to “tip the economy into recession” and said the hike is not a response to the direct effect of oil.
Markets after the decision
Equities. ASX 200 +0.34% to 8,886.80, All Ords 9,008.90 (corroborated). Real estate +2.88%, discretionary +1.87%, energy −3.45%, health care −0.58%; 7 of 11 sectors up. SPI Dec settled 8,897 (+31; ASX, verified), ≈10 points over cash; Wall Street’s split close, AMD’s after-hours beat and a ≈−0.3% overnight indication (single source) point to a flat-to-soft open with chips supporting and energy weighing (our inference). Rates. ACGB 2-year ≈4.89% (−6bp), 3-year ≈4.80%, 10-year ≈5.10% (TE; single source); YT Dec 95.250 (≈4.75%) and XT Dec 94.905 (≈5.095%) (ASX; verified). Pricing. 30-day IB: Nov 95.180, Dec 95.150, Jan 95.145, Feb 95.105, Mar 95.085 (ASX; verified) → Feb ≈18%, Mar ≈26% of a further hike (derived). Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.6976 (from 0.7023), AUD/NZD 1.2404 (from 1.2505), TWI 64.7, AUD/JPY 110.16, AUD/CNY 4.6547 (verified). The post-decision low was 0.6962 (Newsquawk). TFF leveraged funds are net long 48,414 AUD contracts; legacy non-commercial net short 128,315 (CFTC, 27 Oct; signs differ by series).
Data, housing and the China link
September building approvals rose 5.1% m/m (houses −5.3%, units +24.6% on Master Builders’ figures; single source, and ABC had units +16.6%, §13). ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 1.7 to 66.2 (ABC). Today: September household spending at 11:30 (prior 6.8% y/y; no consensus listed). Thursday: September goods trade at 11:30 (consensus A$1.2bn surplus). China link: seaborne 61% iron ore $90.70/dmt, DCE −0.52% (MMI; single source); SGX touched a two-year low near $89.85 in mid-October on Simandou supply. BHP fell only 0.6% on Tuesday; energy and coal were the resources drag. The weaker AUD/CNY cushions miners’ AUD receipts.
New Zealand
The Q3 labour market was due at 08:45 AEDT today and was not obtained at filing; consensus is unemployment 5.5% (range 5.4–5.6; Q2 5.6%), employment +0.3% to +0.5% q/q, LCI 2.1% y/y (newswire.co.nz preview; corroborated). The RBNZ is at 2.75% after a 4–3 hold; TE has ≈75% for a December hike (single source). NZX 50 +0.16% to 13,720.26 (TE). The GDT auction rose 3%. The general election is Saturday 7 November.
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.85% | +25bp 3 Nov, 6–3 | Tue 8 Dec 14:30 (carried) · Feb ≈18% of another (derived) |
| SMP: CPI · trimmed mean, Dec-26 | 4.5% · 3.6% | Aug SMP 3.6% · 3.3% | Next SMP February |
| SMP: unemployment path | 4.7% → 5.1% (Dec-28) | prior end-point 4.8% | Oct labour force Thu 19 Nov 11:30 |
| CPI Q3 q/q · trimmed mean q/q · y/y | 1.3% · 1.0% · 3.7% | Sep monthly 4.3% y/y | Oct monthly: late November |
| Building approvals (Sep) | +5.1% m/m | houses −5.3% | Released 2 Nov |
| ANZ-RM consumer confidence | 66.2 | −1.7 pts | Weekly, Tue |
| Household spending (Sep) | — | 6.8% y/y | Today 11:30 |
| Trade balance (Sep) | — | A$0.495bn · cons A$1.2bn | Thu 5 Nov 11:30 |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | ≈4.89 · ≈4.80 · ≈5.10% | ≈−6 · ≈−6 · ≈−5bp Tue | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.6976 · 1.2404 | 0.7023 · 1.2505 (2 Nov) | Today 16:00 (V023 mark) |
| NZ unemployment (Q3) · OCR | — · 2.75% | 5.6% (Q2) · cons 5.5% | Released 08:45 today (not obtained) · RBNZ 9 Dec |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V023: the post-decision RBA table printed 1.2404 (verified), four pips above the 1.2400 stop, so the count is 0 of 2; the view is +0.72% against the ≈1.2315 entry, and a stop-out still scores RIGHT. New York quotes near ≈1.236 do not count. V006: ASX 200 8,886.80, below 8,900, 0 of 2; +1.32% in favour of the 9,005.9 entry, 13.2 points from the line. V017: FRED posted HY 344bp (30 Oct) and 343bp (2 Nov), IG 94bp and CCC 1,327bp (30 Oct) (verified): +17bp in HY in favour since the last mark; the mirror (two HY prints below 305bp) is 38bp away and the exit (CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter) 277bp away. V025: dedicated series 159.9bp (2 Nov, verified), 19.9bp above the mirror. V031: Monday’s Nasdaq-100 close is now 27,989.82 (corroborated), replacing the derived ≈27,999 (a 9-point difference), 4.10% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry and 10.5% below the 30,932 close line; Tuesday’s close was not obtained (the Composite rose 0.83%), so the view is carried on Monday’s mark. V024: January settles $104.77 (2 Nov) and $103.60 (3 Nov), ≈$19 above the $81.51–84.51 band.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 159.9bp (2 Nov, verified), +0.9bp on Friday. Fitch outlook negative; ECB speakers call wider premia “healthy”; Bobl auction uncovered; Senate social-security bill 9 Nov | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (19.9bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED HY 343bp (2 Nov), 344bp (30 Oct); IG 94bp, CCC 1,327bp (30 Oct) — verified. HY +18bp in one session; Microsoft ≥$25bn, Oracle and Alphabet supply this week | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (277bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (38bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | 8,886.80 against 9,005.9: +1.32% in favour. 0 of 2. A dovish hike lifted property and discretionary; energy fell; housing still falling | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (0 of 2; 13.2 points away; intraday prints do not count) |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | 27,989.82 on 2 Nov (corroborated): 4.10% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry. Tuesday close not obtained. AMD beat and raised; credit spreads wider; Qualcomm and Arm Thu | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (10.5% above Monday’s mark) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2404 on the RBA 4pm table, 3 Nov (verified), +0.72% against ≈1.2315. The RBA dropped its tightening bias (Feb ≈18%); RBNZ ≈75% for Dec; NZ labour data today; NY cross ≈1.236 | PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (4 pips; 0 of 2; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (196 pips) |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | January settles $104.77 (2 Nov) and $103.60 (3 Nov). Qeshm strike and mine reports against a Doha draft with replies due inside 36 hours | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$19 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Portfolio-level read. The RBA removed one binary; the US count and the Iran decision are the two left. The book is positioned for stress in AI financing (V031, V017), and Tuesday’s spread data support that framing more than Tuesday’s equity tape does. V023 is the view most likely to close this week, and it would close right. No new view: the candidate is an ACGB 3-year receiver on the dovish hike, and the front end has already moved 6–7bp in a session; we would want the October labour force before opening it.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The “what changes the view” column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project’s views ledger. Scorecard: six open; 25 closed (3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch).
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 27 October, read from the CFTC archive files (the “current” pages still served 20 October at fetch time). Nets are this desk’s arithmetic. Series named on every line; flow universes are never netted.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — as of Tue 27 October | |||
| Leveraged funds, six-contract Treasury total | −6,877,271 | −80,913 w/w | 10y −2.23m (−120k), 2y −1.36m (−72k), 5y −2.08m. Rebuilt into the refunding; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure (verified) |
| E-mini S&P: LF · asset managers · legacy NC | −400,604 · +923,449 · −134,368 | LF −29k w/w | Hedge funds added shorts; real money added longs |
| FX, LF (TFF) vs legacy non-commercial | JPY −14.6k / +101.6k · AUD +48.4k / −128.3k | Legacy yen +31.7k | ⚠ Signs disagree across series for JPY, AUD, GBP; both real |
| Gold (COMEX) · WTI (NYMEX), legacy NC | +186,451 · +74,343 | −13.4k · −15.0k | Second straight cut in gold length |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA weekly flows (to Wed 28 Oct) | Equities +$56.2bn · bonds +$15.4bn · cash +$3.4bn | Gold −$1.7bn · crypto −$0.5bn | First gold outflow since July (Investing.com, Newsquawk; corroborated) |
| ICI long-term funds (to 21 Oct) · money funds (to 28 Oct) | +$12.32bn · $7.90tn | MMF −$43.29bn | ETFs +$45.8bn, mutual funds −$33.5bn (ICI; verified) |
| Spot BTC · ETH ETFs (2 Nov) | −$398.6m · −$139.7m | 2nd · 6th straight outflow | Farside via relays (corroborated) |
| Surveys, volatility, breadth and valuation | |||
| BofA FMS (October) | Tail risk: disorderly yields 31% · AI bubble 23% | Crowded: long semis 45% | If Democrats sweep, 32% expect higher yields and lower stocks. November survey not yet out |
| AAII (to 28 Oct) | Bulls 37.8% · bears 41.4% | Spread −3.6 | (AAII; verified). Next release Thu |
| Fear & Greed replica (2 Nov) | 20 — extreme fear | 14 a week ago · 43 a month ago | 7 of 8 components lean fear (thetrading.tools) |
| VIX/VIX3M · SKEW · put/call | 0.979 (2 Nov) · 152.8 · 0.90 (30 Oct) | SKEW 98th pct since 1990 | Spot curve near inversion; Nov VIX future (20.36) above Dec (19.79) — front backwardated (30 Oct settles). Tail hedges expensive |
| % S&P above 200-day · highs/lows | 61.6% (30 Oct) · 156 / 247 (2 Nov) | McClellan +21.6 | Hindenburg inactive (thetrading.tools, historyofmarket) |
| S&P moving averages (2 Nov, derived) | 20d ≈7,718 · 50d ≈7,695 · 100d ≈7,618 · 200d ≈7,313 | Deviation-based | Tuesday’s close is still below the 100-day (stock-marketdata) |
| FactSet (30 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +30.2% | 82% beat | CY26 +32.9%, CY27 +16.3% (verified) |
| Strategists | MS Wilson 7,100–7,200 then 8,000 · GS post-midterm median +6% over 3 months (Aug) | Datelines checked | GS midterm playbook (30 Oct) via an aggregator only (unverified) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET / local | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 4 November — US results through the Sydney day | ||||||
| Wed | 08:45 | NZDT 10:45 | NZ Q3 labour market — unemployment · employment q/q · LCI y/y | 5.5% · +0.4% · 2.1% | 5.6% · — · 2.0% | H |
| Wed | 10:00 → 17:00 | Tue 18:00 → Wed 01:00 | Midterm poll closings: 10:00 parts of IN, KY · 11:00 GA, SC, VA · 11:30 NC, OH · 12:00 PA, MI, WI, FL · 13:00 AZ, CO, NM, NY, TX · 15:00 CA, OR, WA, NV · 17:00 AK | D House ≈94% · D Senate 76–78% | H | |
| Wed | 11:30 · ≈12:15 · 12:45 | 00:30 · 01:15 · 01:45 UTC | AU household spending (Sep) · PBoC fix · China RatingDog services PMI (Oct) | — · — · ≈51.6 | 6.8% y/y · 6.7150 · 51.5 | M |
| Wed | 16:00 | — | RBA 4pm exchange rates (V023 mark: stop if a second close below 1.2400) | 1.2404 | M | |
| Wed | 19:30 | 08:30 UTC | Riksbank decision · NBP (date unconfirmed) · Novo Nordisk, BMW | 2.00% (+25bp) | 1.75% | M |
| Wed | evening | — | Euro-area final services PMIs · euro-area flash HICP (Oct; listed by Newsquawk) · ECB Lane, Moulin | — · 3.9% | — · 3.8% | M |
| Thu | 00:15 | Wed 08:15 | US ADP (Oct) | 67–69k | 90k | M |
| Thu | 00:30 | Wed 08:30 | Treasury quarterly refunding statement · US trade balance (Sep) | sizes unch. (Barclays) · −$108.0bn | — · −$105.6bn | H |
| Thu | 01:45 · 02:00 | Wed 09:45 · 10:00 | S&P services PMI final · ISM services (Oct) | 57.9 · 54.7–54.9 | 57.9 · 54.9 | H |
| Thu | ≈08:00 · ≈08:30 | Wed after close | Qualcomm · Arm · AppLovin · Datadog · Copom (Selic) | Copom: hold vs −25bp | 13.75% | M |
| Thursday 5 November | ||||||
| Thu | 11:30 | 00:30 UTC | AU goods trade balance (Sep) · BoJ September minutes | A$1.2bn | A$0.495bn | M |
| Thu | 20:00 | 09:00 UTC | Norges Bank (no MPR) · German factory orders · Toyota, Sony, Rheinmetall · Canadian federal budget | hold | 4.50% | M |
| Thu | 23:00 | 12:00 UTC | BoE decision + Monetary Policy Report | 4.00% (≈96% priced) | 3.75% | H |
| Fri | 00:30 | Thu 08:30 | US initial claims · Q3 productivity · unit labour costs | 195k · +2.7% · +0.2% | 194k · +1.4% · +1.2% | M |
| Fri | 06:00 | Thu 14:00 | Banxico · Fed Hammack, Barkin · Airbnb, Cloudflare | hold | 6.50% | M |
| Friday 6 November — US payrolls land Saturday morning Sydney | ||||||
| Fri | day | — | BoJ Ueda · BoE Pill · ECB Lane · Fed Logan, Williams, Musalem, Bowman · Moderna | M | ||
| Sat 7 | 00:30 | Fri 08:30 | US nonfarm payrolls (Oct) · unemployment · AHE m/m · y/y · Canada jobs | +55–65k · 4.2% · 0.3% · 2.9% | +29k · 4.2% · 0.1% · 3.0% | H |
| Sat 7 | 02:00 · day | Fri 10:00 | UMich sentiment (Nov prelim) · NZ general election (Sat 7 Nov) | 47–48 | 48.0 | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 9 Nov – 18 Dec | — | — | China CPI Mon 9 · NY Fed expectations Mon 9 · China trade Tue 10 · BoJ Summary of Opinions Tue 10 · Russia–Ukraine–US talks Abu Dhabi 10–11 Nov · US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 (Tue 08:30 ET; headline cons 3.7%, prior 3.7%) · Veterans Day Wed 11 · US PPI 13 Nov · China FX RRR to 6% 15 Nov · US retail sales 17 Nov · FOMC minutes 19 Nov 06:00 · AU Oct labour force Thu 19 Nov · US Q3 GDP (second) and core PCE 25 Nov · BoK 26 Nov · OPEC+ 29 Nov · RBA Tue 8 Dec · RBNZ Wed 9 Dec · FOMC + SEP Thu 10 Dec 06:00 · US funding to 11 Dec · BoE Thu 17 Dec · ECB and BoJ Fri 18 Dec | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk’s judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics, Newsquawk, Deutsche Bank via ZeroHedge, ForexFundamentals and newswire.co.nz; ForexFactory did not load. Poll-closing times from USPollingData (date inconsistencies on that page; state-level times vary). Changes since Tuesday’s edition: RBA, JOLTS, factory orders and AMD have reported; the BoE is now ≈96% priced; the NZ election is confirmed for Saturday 7 November.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Post-vote Iran decision: strikes or a deal | Results today; Doha replies due within 36 hours; Netanyahu pressing for strikes | Strike: Brent through $107–113, TTF back above €100, term premium up. Deal: Brent toward $95–100, energy equities lower | V024’s residual call; energy vs consumer pairs | |
| 2 | AI-capex financing moves from equity into credit | HY +18bp to 344bp; Microsoft, Oracle, Alphabet supply; Qualcomm/Arm Thu | HY through 360bp; semis a further 10–15% (MS Wilson); S&P to 7,100–7,200; Korea and Taiwan beta | V017; V031 | |
| 3 | Democratic wave plus higher yields | Results from 10:00 AEDT; House call may take weeks | D Senate 76–78% · D House ≈94% (prediction markets) | BofA: “a Democratic wave and a jump in bond yields” not priced; FMS: 32% expect higher yields and lower stocks on a sweep | Q4 index collars |
| 4 | Disorderly long end at the refunding | Thu 00:30 AEDT | FMS top tail risk (31%) | Coupon increases into −6.88m contracts of LF Treasury shorts; 10-year back above 5% | Low duration; payer spreads |
| 5 | Fed hikes 9 December | ISM services Thu 02:00; payrolls Sat 00:30; CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 | 72.5% (Kalshi/Poly, stale) · 77% (CME, secondary) | 2-year above 4.65%; dollar firmer; gold lower | 2-year options |
| 6 | AUD/NZD breaks 1.2400 on a dovish RBA and a firm NZ print | RBA table 16:00 today and tomorrow | RBA Feb ≈18% vs RBNZ Dec ≈75% | V023 stops out (scored RIGHT); AUD crosses lower | V023 stop |
| 7 | France: rating channel after Fitch’s negative outlook | Senate 9 Nov; S&P review week of 23 Nov | OAT–Bund through 174.6bp | V025 (High) | |
| 8 | Short-covering rally in an extreme-fear tape | A clean result; AMD’s guide; Fear & Greed 20 | Index squeeze against V031 and V006; GS base rate +6% median in the three months after a midterm (Aug) | Keep hedges as spreads, not outright shorts | |
| 9 | China support stops at equities | CPI/trade 9–10 Nov; FX RRR 15 Nov | Iron ore below $89.85; ASX materials; AUD crosses | Short iron ore vs copper | |
| 10 | Yen squeeze toward the December BoJ | Legacy speculators +101.6k yen; Ueda Fri | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind | Short-dated USD/JPY puts | |
| 11 | Crypto liquidity after the Binance hack | $5.28bn net outflows; ETF outflows on consecutive days | BTC below $74,000; alt-coin liquidity | No view open |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,568.92 | 7,541 (Mon) · ≈7,313 (200-day, derived) · 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson) | ≈7,618 (100-day) · ≈7,695 (50-day) · ≈7,718 (20-day) | MAs derived from deviation rates, 2 Nov |
| Nasdaq-100 | 27,989.82 (Mon) | 27,500 · 27,000 | 28,384.85 (30 Oct) · 29,402.51 (29 Oct) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes) · 31,224.47 (record, 6 Oct) | Tuesday close not obtained |
| UST 10y · 2y | ≈4.95% · ≈4.62% (vendor) | 4.91 (2 Nov par) · 4.85 · 4.55 | 5.00 · 5.05 (28 Oct par) · 4.67 | Par 3 Nov row ≈10:00 AEDT |
| OAT–Bund | 159.9bp (2 Nov) | 153.4 (29 Oct) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | ≈4.80 · ≈5.10% | 4.75 (YT-implied) · 4.70 · 5.00 | 4.86 (2 Nov) · 4.92 · 5.15 | Our reading; cash at 4.85% now caps the 3-year |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈101.82 · ≈1.120 · ≈157.2–158.5 | 101.50 · 1.1158 · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | USD/JPY conflicted |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.6976 · 1.2404 (RBA) | 0.6962 (Tue low) · 0.6951 (CBA) · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes) | 0.7023 (2 Nov RBA) · 0.7058 (200-day, Reuters) · 1.2600 (V023 closes RIGHT, two closes) | RBA 4pm table is the mark |
| Brent January | $103.60 (settle) | $100.80 (Tue low) · $95 · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $107.24 (Tue high) · $113.43 (30 Oct) · $118 | Front month |
| Gold · Silver | $3,920 · ≈$49.75 | $3,875 (30 Oct) · $3,800 | $3,964 (Tue high, Newsquawk) · $4,000 | Spot |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,886.80 | 8,856.50 (Mon) · 8,795.2 (23 Oct) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 8,900 (V006: 0 of 2 closes above) · 8,908.10 (30 Oct) · 8,986 (30 Oct high) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| HY / IG / CCC OAS | 343 / 94 / 1,327bp | HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) | HY 360 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED; HY 2 Nov, IG/CCC 30 Oct |
| Bitcoin | ≈$77,800 | $76,000 · $74,000 | $79,000 · $81,636 (28 Oct high) | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Wednesday edition and the RBA read-out. Six research desks ran in parallel from ≈06:10 AEDT; Asia, Australia and Europe were written first and the US-close block was fetched from 21:12 UTC (08:12 AEDT), after the bell, per the timing protocol. At filing the AP tabulation for Tuesday was not indexed, so the four US cash closes come from the Yahoo post-close header alone; each point change ties exactly to Monday’s close, which is why they are shown without “≈”, but they are single-source and will be checked against AP tomorrow. The US-close fetch ran long, and this edition published ≈10:00 AEDT, about 150 minutes after target; the first midterm polls closed during the build and no results are reported. Primary reads this run: the RBA statement, SMP and 4pm table; ASX end-of-day futures settlements (3 Nov); the official Treasury par curve (2 Nov row); Treasury’s borrowing estimates (sb0675); BLS JOLTS; FRED (HY, IG, CCC, VIX); the OAT–Bund dedicated series; the BoJ schedule; the CFTC archive files as of 27 October; ICI; AAII; FactSet; Kitco. Every figure was retrieved on 3–4 November 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 041
(1) Nasdaq Composite, 2 Nov: No. 041 printed 25,164.32; Yahoo’s post-close arithmetic and two other sources give 25,164.36. Minor.
(2) Nasdaq-100, 2 Nov: derived ≈27,999 replaced by 27,989.82 (Yahoo ^NDX, T&I News; corroborated). V031’s in-favour figure is unchanged at 4.1%. 24/7 Wall St also printed 27,989.82 but is on this library’s accuracy blacklist and is not counted.
(3) Brent January, 2 Nov: settle now obtained at $104.77 (−$8.66; Reuters via two outlets, TE prior close; corroborated). No. 041’s ≈$104.8 stands.
(4) FRED credit: HY 344bp (30 Oct), 343bp (2 Nov); IG 94bp and CCC 1,327bp (30 Oct). No. 041 carried 326/89/1,325 (29 Oct), correctly labelled as the latest posted.
(5) Treasury borrowing estimates: obtained — $618bn (Oct–Dec) and $800bn (Jan–Mar). No. 041 carried August’s $628bn as context.
(6) Poll-closing time in UTC: 18:00 EST is 23:00 UTC; the AEDT time of 10:00 was right.
(7) Discharged: RBA decision and 4pm table; ASX Tuesday close; par curve 2 Nov; FRED 30 Oct and HY 2 Nov; OAT–Bund 2 Nov; Brent settles 2–3 Nov; JOLTS; AMD. Still open: FRED Nasdaq-100 30 Oct onward; settled Fed Rate Monitor (stale since 27 Oct).
Conflicts and how they were resolved
UST 10-year change: Yahoo +5.8bp against MarketScreener’s header +3.3bp at the same ≈4.952% level; the level is used and the change is shown as ≈+6bp against Monday’s vendor level, labelled derived. USD/JPY: Yahoo 157.17 (−0.56%) against TE 158.50; not resolved, shown as a range. NZD/USD: TE 0.5616 and Reuters 0.5614 against Yahoo 0.5677; TE/Reuters used. FTSE 100: TE 10,650.68 against a wire 10,638.43; shown as ≈10,645. DAX change: TE’s −116 implies a prior that does not tie; change derived against Monday’s 25,975.30. Gold: Kitco’s own −25.70 does not tie to our $3,944.80 prior; the level is used and the change derived. SMP table: the PDF extraction was garbled; columns mapped as Dec-26 to Dec-28 to match three press reads, but the text’s “above 3% until end-2027” conflicts with a 2.7% Dec-27 headline cell. Building approvals units: Master Builders +24.6% against ABC +16.6%. RBA pre-decision pricing: ≈80% (our derivation), 89.2% (ABC), 70.8% (RBA Rate Watch). WTI label: one Dow Jones headline called the $96.09 settle “January”; Newsquawk and Bloomberg confirm December. Gilt 10-year: 5.27% (UK page) against 5.25% (German page table).
Single-source and unverified items
US cash closes and VIX (Yahoo only, arithmetic ties) · AMD after-hours move · ASX sector moves (AAP) · SPI overnight indication · TAIEX, Shanghai, CSI 300, Sensex, Nifty, NZX 50 (TE) · all European sovereign levels (TE) · FX except the RBA table (TE, Yahoo) · Brent January settle (Bloomberg via Rigzone) · IRGC mine and “state of war” statements (Newsquawk chain) · PBoC relending-rate cut · iron ore (MMI) · copper, silver, platinum, aluminium, lithium, uranium (TE) · crypto prices · GS midterm playbook (aggregator) · JPMorgan blue-wave scenario (TheStreet) · Barclays refunding call · CBA house-price forecast.
Not obtained
AP tabulation for 3 Nov · Nasdaq-100 Tuesday close and QQQ close · DXY close · NZ Q3 labour data · midterm results · settled Fed pricing for Tuesday · FTSE MIB and SMI closes · HS Tech · par curve 3 Nov (posts ≈10:00 AEDT) · FRED IG/CCC 2 Nov and HY 3 Nov · OAT–Bund 3 Nov · LME copper 2–3 Nov · spot crypto ETF flows 3 Nov · API inventories · ASX issue breadth · Super Micro and Arista results · BoE vote-split consensus · Copom consensus · NBP and BNM dates · November FMS date · SpotGamma levels.
Thursday’s first verification targets
(1) RBA 4pm table today (V023: a second close below 1.2400 fires the stop). (2) ASX 200 close today (V006, 0 of 2). (3) AP tabulation for 3 Nov against the Yahoo closes, and FRED/AP Nasdaq-100 for 3 Nov (V031). (4) Par curve 3 Nov. (5) FRED HY 3 Nov, IG/CCC 2 Nov (V017). (6) OAT–Bund 3 Nov (V025). (7) Brent January settle Wednesday (V024). (8) Midterm results, the post-vote Iran decision, the refunding statement, NZ labour data, settled Fed pricing.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- Yahoo — Tuesday live blog (closes) · TheStreet — 3 Nov · StockTitan — 3 Nov live · MarketScreener — Election Day trading · MarketScreener — Treasury yields · Schwab — market update · AMD — Q3 results · BLS — JOLTS · RTTNews — factory orders · US Treasury — par curve (Nov) · Treasury — borrowing estimates · Treasury — dealer agenda · FRED — Nasdaq-100 · FRED — VIX · T&I News — Nasdaq-100
- defirate — Fed odds · Investing — Fed Rate Monitor (stale) · The Block — midterm odds · prediction.com — midterms · USPollingData — poll closings · IndexBox — Fed speakers · funding deadline
- CFTC — TFF 27 Oct archive · legacy CME · legacy COMEX · Investing.com — BofA Flow Show · Teleborsa — October FMS · ICI — flows · ICI — money funds · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call · Hindenburg · breadth · S&P MA deviation · FactSet EI 30 Oct · investingLive — MS Wilson
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 3 Nov decision · RBA — SMP November · RBA — 4pm exchange rates · ASX — futures settlements 3 Nov · StoneX — RBA · Domain — RBA live · Reuters via Business Recorder — AUD · Newsquawk — post-RBA · OAT–Bund dedicated series · Econostream — ECB · BoJ — schedule · ForexFundamentals — BoE · Riksbank · Norges · Newsquawk — PBoC fix · TE — ACGB · TE — Bund · TE — gilts · TE — DXY · Yahoo — currencies
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- AAP via Yahoo AU — ASX close · ABC — markets live, 3 Nov · ABC — RBA lifts rates · Sharetrader — RBA · TE — ASX · Master Builders — approvals · The Bottom Line — overnight · newswire.co.nz — NZ labour preview · Westpac IQ — NZ labour · TE — NZX
- Seoul Economic Daily — KOSPI · ad-hoc-news — Hang Seng · TE — TAIEX · TE — China · TE — India · Korea Herald — CPI · Tradingpedia — fix · MMI — iron ore · TE — China calendar
Europe and geopolitics
- Irish Times wire — European close · TE — DAX · FTSE · CAC · IBEX · Newsquawk — headlines · Newsquawk — week in focus · ZeroHedge/DB — week ahead · Reuters via WSAU — Fitch France
- ZeroHedge — Qeshm strike · Al Jazeera · The New Arab — two-day plan · Bloomberg via Yahoo — Iran offer · Times of Israel — strike planning · Windward — transits · ABC News — international
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Bloomberg via Rigzone — oil settle · Newsquawk — WTI settle · Dow Jones via MarketScreener · Reuters relay — Brent 2 Nov · Petroleum Economist · OilPrice · TE — Brent · TE — TTF · Kitco — gold · Westmetall — copper · TE — copper
- FRED — HY OAS · IG OAS · CCC OAS · Dataconomy — Microsoft bond · CoinGecko · NewsBTC — BTC ETF flows · Bloomingbit — ETH ETF flows · CoinDesk — Binance outflows · Bitcoin Magazine — CLARITY