Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Wednesday morning: the US count delivered a Democratic Congress, crude fell about 9%, yields and the dollar fell with it, and NZ jobs pulled AUD/NZD away from V023’s stop.

Democrats are projected to control both chambers, and the market treated it as gridlock plus a shorter war. Ballotpedia’s 01:30 EST count had Democrats at least 54–44 in the Senate (+7, with Collins, Graham, Husted and Marshall defeated) and at least 231–141 in the House, with 36–38 House races uncalled (Decision Desk HQ, 11:40 ET Wed); Kalshi’s Senate-control market resolved Democrat at 04:46 UTC (verified). These are projections, not certified counts. Stocks closed sharply higher: the Dow added ≈1,570 points (+3.0%) for its best day since April 2025 (ABC/AP; CNBC headline), the S&P 500 rose ≈1.6% to ≈7,689 (real-time quote 16:03:58 EST, corroborated by ABC’s +1.5%) and the Nasdaq ≈1.4%; the Nasdaq-100 rose only 0.91% to 28,437.17 (Yahoo close stamp) and the VIX fell toward ≈16.8 (15:44 ET snapshot). Communication services, hospitals and health insurers (HCA +11%, Centene +10% at midday) and solar led; AI data-centre builders fell 20–25% (Modine, Sterling, Cipher, Hut 8) and energy was the worst sector (StockTitan/CNBC; corroborated). Read here as gridlock removing tax and spending upside while raising the AI-regulation discount on the capex chain, which is the exposure V031 hedges.
Oil fell about 9% in a session on a political reading of the war, while the physical data pointed the other way. Brent January settled $94.62 (−$8.98, −8.7%) and WTI December $88.12 (−$7.97, −8.3%), both the lowest settles since 31 August (Reuters via Cyprus Mail and fnnews; verified); Brent is −16.6% since Friday. The trigger set is political: Vance posted that the Iran war cost Republicans the election (headline; unverified), Trump told the FT there are no immediate plans for further strikes, and the White House is reported to have approved Qatar’s draft MoU. Physically nothing has reopened: Kpler counted 5 commodity vessels through Hormuz on 31 Oct and 0 on 1 Nov against 130+ a day before the war; Iran’s Rezaei called the US reply “not convincing”; the IRGC claims four tankers were mined on Wednesday (unverified). EIA showed draws in crude (−0.87m bbl vs +0.88m expected), gasoline and distillates (−3.57m). The market is pricing a deal ahead of the barrels; V024’s January band ($81.51–84.51) is now ≈$10 below the settle.
Yields and the dollar fell with oil, but the Fed’s December hike is still priced at about 80%. The 10-year traded near ≈4.89% and the 2-year near ≈4.58% (TE dated 4 Nov, no clock time; Yahoo 10-year 4.894% at ≈15:44 ET (corroborated)), against the official par 4.95% and 4.61% for Tuesday (Treasury; verified). DXY fell 0.40% to ≈101.48 and USD/JPY 0.5% to ≈157.9 (TE; corroborated by the RBA 4pm cross). Data did not help the doves: ADP +86k against 75k, ISM services 54.5 against 54.8 with prices paid 73.0 and employment 51.4 (ISM; verified). CME put December at 81.2% for +25bp before ADP (13:10 UTC; secondary) and Kalshi at 80.5% (11:21 ET). The refunding kept coupon sizes unchanged “for the next several quarters” and moves the 7-year to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings (Trading Economics; secondary, the Treasury page did not load). Gold rose ≈3.4% to $4,061.90, back above $4,000 (Kitco; verified at 13:20 ET). Saturday’s payrolls (consensus 65k, 00:30 AEDT) decide whether the oil fall reaches the front end.
The hyperscaler bond pipeline is still clearing, but the equity market has started charging AI capex a political premium. Meta priced $15bn in five tranches on Tuesday on a book reported near $58bn (Bloomberg via Newsquawk) and is marketing a debut euro deal of up to €9bn; Oracle ($10bn, Monday) and Microsoft (≥$25bn, last week) went before it. FRED HY OAS eased to 340bp on 3 Nov from 343bp, with IG 94bp and CCC 1,319bp on 2 Nov (verified). V017 has given back 4bp of Friday’s 18bp move; its mirror (two HY prints below 305bp) is 35bp away. Qualcomm beat after the close (adjusted EPS $2.17 vs $2.16; revenue $10.44bn vs ≈$10.1bn; Q1 revenue guide $10.4–11.2bn, above $10.48bn; EPS guide $2.15–2.35 against $2.27) with handsets light at $5.14bn; the after-hours move is conflicted (+1.8% early, ≈−2% to −4% later; unverified). Arm’s reporting date is conflicted (Wednesday or Thursday) and no results were found.
Australia sold off through the count and AUD/NZD lifted 59 pips off V023’s stop on a weak NZ labour report. The ASX 200 fell 0.59% to 8,834.50 (AAP; verified, ties to 8,886.80 − 52.30), with BHP −2.9%, Rio −2.3% and banks giving back their post-RBA gains; the SPI December contract settled 8,856 (ASX; verified). V006 is 0 of 2 and +1.90% in favour. NZ Q3 unemployment rose to 5.7% (consensus 5.5%; an 11-year high) with employment −0.1% (Stats NZ via TE and investingLive; corroborated), and RBNZ December hike odds fell below 50% from about 75%. The RBA 4pm table printed AUD/NZD 1.2463 and AUD/USD 0.6972 (RBA; verified): V023 stays 0 of 2, now 63 pips above 1.2400. ASX 30-day futures hold Feb at ≈22% and Mar at ≈30% of another 25bp (derived from verified settles). Household spending rose 0.6% in September against 0.2% expected.
Europe rallied hardest, China rallied on its own support, and North Asian tech kept falling. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.82% to 657.40, its best day since June, with euro-area banks +4.6% (Reuters via MarketScreener; verified against Tuesday’s level). The CSI 300 rose 2.31% and the Hang Seng ≈1.67% on PBoC stock-purchase lending above CNY200bn (TE; single source). The Nikkei fell ≈1.80% across two sessions, touching a five-month low of ≈60,030 intraday, and the TAIEX fell for a fifth day (−0.83%). The BoE is expected to hike to 4.00% at 23:00 AEDT, with 29 of 32 houses calling it and a 7–2 vote the modal split (Finchiefs; corroborated); the Riksbank hiked to 2.00% on Wednesday (verified). The OAT–Bund dedicated series widened to 161.8bp on 3 Nov (verified), 21.8bp above V025’s mirror.

Overnight recap

The count, the US session, Europe’s rally and an Asian session that traded the uncertainty before the answer.

The midterm count — projections

ABC News projected Democratic control of both chambers at 23:38 ET on Tuesday, and CNBC attributes the same call to AP (corroborated). Ballotpedia’s 01:30 EST tally gave Democrats at least 54–44 in the Senate (going in: R 53, D 45, 2 I) and at least 231–141 in the House (going in: R 218, D 214). Senate flips: Iowa (Turek over Hinson), Kansas (Hamilton over Marshall), Maine (Jackson over Collins), North Carolina (Cooper over Whatley), Ohio (Brown over Husted), South Carolina (Andrews over Graham), Texas (Talarico over Paxton). Democrats also gained governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Decision Desk HQ listed 36–38 House races uncalled at 11:40 ET Wednesday, heavily in California, North Carolina and Arizona; Georgia and Mississippi hold runoffs on 1 December if needed. Trump said he would accept the result and work with Democrats; Vance is reported (headline only; unverified) to have blamed the losses on the Iran war. The new Congress sits from 3 January, so the lame-duck session, with Republicans still in control, carries the 11 December funding deadline and any ACA-subsidy deal (STAT; corroborated). Capital Economics: no filibuster-proof Senate, Trump keeps the veto, so the near-term policy path changes little (BNN Bloomberg).

US session, Wednesday 4 November

The Dow rose ≈1,570 points (+3.0%) to ≈53,357, its best day since April 2025; the S&P 500 rose ≈1.6% to ≈7,689 and the Nasdaq Composite ≈1.4% (ABC/AP close wording; S&P real-time quote 16:03:58 EST via MarketScreener). The AP tabulation had not been indexed at filing, so these levels are derived from AP’s Tuesday closes and labelled. The Nasdaq-100 lagged at +0.91% to 28,437.17 (Yahoo close stamp; single source), the visible cost of the AI-hardware sell-off inside the index. Treasuries rallied ≈6bp at the 10-year; the VIX fell ≈19% toward ≈16.8 by 15:44 ET. The day’s rotation was clean: communication services about +4% at midday, health insurers and hospitals (HCA +11.0%, Centene +10.0%), solar (the Invesco solar ETF +8%, First Solar +6.9%) and staples at a record; energy the worst sector (Exxon −4.9%), defence lower, and the AI-infrastructure builders hit hardest (Modine −24.6%, Hut 8 −21.9%, Sterling −21.0%, Cipher −20.2% at 12:03 ET), with Micron −5.6%, CoreWeave −9.0% and Nvidia −1.6%. Megacaps were bid: Amazon +7.4%, Apple +6.7%, Microsoft +6.2% (StockTitan, 13:01 ET). Trump Media fell 15.8%. Before the bell McDonald’s beat on EPS ($3.57 vs $3.38) and rose 4.7%; FIS fell 24.7% on a CFO exit and a JPMorgan downgrade. AMD, which beat after Tuesday’s close (adjusted EPS $2.09 vs $1.94; Q4 revenue guide ≈$17bn), gave up most of a 6% pre-market gain. After the close Qualcomm beat on revenue ($10.44bn) and guided Q1 revenue above consensus, with the EPS guide midpoint ($2.25) a touch under $2.27; the after-hours direction is conflicted. Arm had not reported in anything read.

Data. ADP October private payrolls +86k against a 75k Dow Jones consensus (Investing.com’s preview had 69k; conflict noted), with September revised to 86k. ISM services 54.5 (consensus 54.8, prior 54.9): prices paid 73.0 (74.0), employment 51.4 (50.1), new orders 55.9 (59.8), business activity 53.8 (56.5), supplier deliveries 56.7 (53.2) (ISM via PR Newswire; verified). Refunding. Coupon and FRN sizes unchanged “for the next several quarters”; the 7-year moves from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings; next week’s 3/10/30-year auctions total $125bn ($58/42/25bn) if sizes are held (TE, Investing; secondary — the Treasury statement sb0678 did not load). Buyback and bill guidance not obtained.

Europe

Stoxx futures were down as much as 1.4% overnight before the result firmed; the cash index closed +1.82% at 657.40, its highest close since 26 August and best session since 12 June. Euro-area banks rose 4.6% (Deutsche Bank +7.7%, Commerzbank +4.8%) on the read that a Democratic Congress limits pressure on European lenders (Reuters). DAX ≈+2.2%, CAC ≈+2.0%, FTSE 100 ≈+1.9%, FTSE MIB ≈+2.4%, IBEX ≈+3.7% (TE; levels CFD-based, priors tie to Newsquawk). Novo Nordisk +5.6% on a beat-and-raise; Pandora +10.9%; Heidelberg Materials +9.6%. Siemens Energy −8%, Infineon, ASML and Soitec −3.4% to −11.8% on the AI-capex read; Rheinmetall −3%, Leonardo −2.9%. Final October services PMIs: Germany 52.5 (flash 51.7), UK 52.8 (flash 53.1), France 46.2 with the composite at 46.6 (TE; France single source). Bunds rallied ≈3bp to ≈3.28%; TE has OATs −12bp and BTPs −14bp, which would put OATs ≈50bp over BTPs — single source, not used for V025.

Asia and Australia, Wednesday 4 November

Asia traded the count live and mostly sold it. The Nikkei fell ≈1.80% to ≈61,945 against Monday’s 63,081.86 (Tokyo was shut Tuesday), touching ≈60,030 intraday, a five-month low; Murata −9.8%, Taiyo Yuden −9.0%, Mitsui Chemicals −10.8%; Mitsubishi Corp +7.9% (TE; derived, two-decimal close not obtained). JGB 10-year +4.6bp to ≈2.82%, 30-year ≈3.93%. China went the other way: Shanghai +2.16% to 3,686.17, CSI 300 +2.31% to 4,101.33, Shenzhen +4.22%, with optical modules and chips leading (Eoptolink +13.4%, Cambricon +10.4%, SMIC +9%) after PBoC stock-purchase loan applications topped CNY200bn and CNY100bn of broker swaps (TE; single source). The Hang Seng rose ≈1.67% to ≈23,920 and HS Tech 1.77% to 3,967 (The Standard, TE). RatingDog services PMI 50.8 against 51.5 (TE; verified). The PBoC fixed at 6.7180 against a 6.6811 Reuters estimate, ≈369 pips weak of the model (FXStreet, Tradingpedia; corroborated). KOSPI +0.62% to 5,683.80 after a +2.4% to −4.0% intraday swing (TE; a second TE page says “fell more than 3%” — conflict, provisional); LG Energy Solution −6.2%. TAIEX −0.83% to 42,948.91, a fifth straight fall (TSMC −1.5%). Sensex +0.50% to 77,301.40, a fifth straight gain. The ASX 200 fell 0.59% to 8,834.50 (detail in §07). NZX 50 +0.46% to 13,783.45.

Geopolitics overnight

Iran. Trump told Fox the US hit an Iranian air-defence site “the night before” (2–3 November; Iranian media place it on Qeshm Island), calling it “minor” and “not war” (Al Jazeera; verified). Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Rezaei called the US response to Iran’s seven conditions “not convincing”; FM spokesman Baghaei cited “substantial differences” on the Qatari draft; Qatar says both sides remain committed. No formal reply inside the 36 hours mediators had flagged has been confirmed. US media report CENTCOM plans for a “short, intense” campaign; Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered responses “with no geographic limits” (Al Jazeera, Media Line; corroborated). UKMTO logged two projectiles into a tanker’s engine room ≈14nm NE of Limah, Oman, on 3 November, no casualties. Russia–Ukraine. Russia fired 289 drones and 76 missiles at the grid on 3 November; three of DTEK’s five thermal plants are offline; US-brokered talks are set for Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November (AP via Spokesman; verified). US–China. US officials are reported to be holding up chip-equipment approvals for SK hynix’s China expansion (Newsquawk; single source).

Market dashboard

Wednesday 4 November closes unless marked; 1d is Wednesday’s session, WTD the change since Friday 30 October.

Week to date: change since Friday 30 October

Percent change from Friday’s close to Wednesday’s. Most WTD figures are chained from No. 042’s WTD and Wednesday’s 1d (derived). Brent is the January contract on both dates; AUD/USD and AUD/NZD are on the RBA 4pm table; FX as the pair moved; the Nikkei change spans Monday and Wednesday. Hover a bar for the exact value.

Up since FridayDown since Friday

Equities	Close	1d	WTD	Note
S&P 500	≈7,688.56	+1.58%	≈+1.4%	Real-time quote 16:03:58 EST (Reuters via MarketScreener), corroborated by ABC/AP close wording (+1.5%). AP tabulation not indexed at filing — not a settled close
Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp.	≈53,357 · ≈25,727	+3.03% · ≈+1.4%	≈+3.1% · ≈+1.1%	Tuesday’s AP closes 51,786.72 and 25,372.01 confirmed (verified)
Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100	≈2,853 · 28,437.17	≈+1.4% · +0.91%	≈+1.5% · —	Tuesday AP Russell 2,812.45 (No. 042 printed 2,813.48; §13). NDX 28,437.17 (Yahoo “At close” stamp; single source); 3 Nov close now obtained: 28,180.26 (Yahoo close stamp, Newsquawk 28,180)
VIX	≈16.8	≈−19%	—	15:44 ET snapshot (Yahoo; unverified). Prior close 20.83
Stoxx 600 · DAX	657.40 · ≈26,438	+1.82% · ≈+2.22%	≈+1.7% · ≈+2.4%	Stoxx ties to TE’s 645.66 × 1.0182 (verified). DAX TE CFD-based; Newsquawk’s Tue 25,901 vs TE 25,865
FTSE 100 · CAC 40	≈10,838 · ≈8,178	≈+1.88% · ≈+1.96%	≈+1.1% · ≈+2.5%	TE; priors tie to Newsquawk’s Tuesday closes. MIB ≈51,151 (+2.4%), IBEX ≈19,501 (+3.7%). SMI not obtained
Nikkei 225	≈61,945	≈−1.80%	≈−2.1%	vs Mon 63,081.86 (Tokyo shut Tue). Intraday low ≈60,030. TOPIX not obtained
Shanghai · CSI 300	3,686.17 · 4,101.33	+2.16% · +2.31%	≈+2.4% · —	TE (single source; arithmetic ties). PBoC equity-lending applications >CNY200bn
Hang Seng	≈23,920	≈+1.67%	≈+2.7%	The Standard, TE (corroborated; the Standard misprints the level). HS Tech 3,967 (+1.77%)
KOSPI · TAIEX	5,683.80 · 42,948.91	+0.62% · −0.83%	≈−0.8% · ≈−5.0%	KOSPI provisional (two TE pages conflict on direction). TAIEX fifth fall, lowest close since 30 Jul
Sensex · Nifty 50	77,301.40 · 23,960.60	+0.50% · +0.63%	≈+3.8% · —	TE (single source; arithmetic ties)
S&P/ASX 200	8,834.50	−0.59%	≈−0.83%	Verified (AAP; ties to 8,886.80 − 52.30), corroborated by TE. V006: 0 of 2. All Ords 8,954.90. SPI Dec settle 8,856 (−41; ASX, verified)
NZX 50	13,783.45	+0.46%	≈−0.1%	TE (single source)

Rates & credit	Level	1d	Ref.	Note
UST 2y · 10y · 30y (vendor, Wed)	≈4.58% · ≈4.89% · ≈5.28%	≈−3bp · ≈−6bp · ≈−4bp	vs Tue par	TE dated 4 Nov, no clock time; Yahoo 10-year 4.894% at ≈15:44 ET (corroborated). Changes derived against Tuesday’s official par; vendor and par basis differ by 1–2bp
Official par 2y · 5y · 10y · 30y (Tue 3 Nov)	4.61 · 4.74 · 4.95 · 5.32%	+2 · +4 · +4 · +4bp	vs 2 Nov par	Verified (Treasury). 5s30s 58bp, 2s10s 34bp. 4 Nov row posts ≈10:00 AEDT
Gilt 10y · 30y	≈5.14 · ≈5.60%	≈−11bp · —		TE; UK page text says 5.23% (conflict). BoE tonight
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	≈3.28 · ≈4.82 · ≈4.32%	≈−3 · ≈−12 · ≈−14bp		OAT and BTP single source (TE German page); OAT above BTP by ≈50bp unconfirmed
OAT–Bund (dedicated series)	161.8bp (3 Nov)	+1.9bp	159.9 (2 Nov)	Verified (ideal-investisseur; OAT 4.93 / Bund 3.31). Wed derived ≈154bp (single-source OAT; not a mark). V025 mark
JGB 10y · 30y	≈2.82 · ≈3.93%	≈+5 · ≈+5bp	vs Mon	TE; 30y October record 4.25%
ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y	≈4.87 · ≈4.77 · ≈5.09%	≈−2 · ≈−3 · ≈−1bp		TE, corroborated by futures: YT Dec 95.255 (≈4.745%) and XT Dec 94.910 (≈5.090%) (ASX settles; verified, yields derived)
Canada 10y	≈3.73%	≈−5bp		TE. Federal budget today
US HY OAS	340bp (3 Nov)	−3bp	343 (2 Nov) · 344 (30 Oct)	Verified (FRED). 4 Nov not posted
US IG · CCC OAS	94 · 1,319bp (2 Nov)	0 · −8bp	94 · 1,327 (30 Oct)	Verified (FRED); 3 Nov not posted. Each series carries its own date

FX	Wed	1d	WTD	Note
DXY	≈101.48	≈−0.40%	≈−0.4%	TE intraday (no time stamp). Close not obtained
EUR/USD · GBP/USD	≈1.1232 · ≈1.3455	≈+0.35% · ≈+0.30%	—	TE; RBA 4pm crosses imply 1.1232 and 1.3459 (corroborated)
USD/JPY	≈157.9	≈−0.51%	—	TE 157.88; RBA cross 157.85 (corroborated). Tuesday resolved ≈158.6–158.7; No. 042’s 157.17 unsupported (§13)
AUD/USD	0.6972 (RBA) · ≈0.700 (NY)	−0.06% (RBA)	−0.97% (RBA)	RBA 4pm verified. AAP 5pm 69.83c; TE late ≈0.7008 (no time)
AUD/NZD · NZD/USD	1.2463 (RBA) · ≈0.5596	+0.48% (RBA)	−0.14% (RBA)	RBA 4pm verified. V023: 0 of 2, 63 pips above 1.2400. NZD post-data low ≈0.5583
USD/CAD · USD/CHF	≈1.3971 · ≈0.8164	≈−0.28% · ≈−0.54%	—	TE (single source)
USD/CNY · fix	≈6.685 · 6.7180	≈+0.2%	—	Fix vs 6.6811 estimate: ≈369 pips weak (corroborated). FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov
USD/MXN · INR · KRW	≈18.84 · ≈94.70 · ≈1,341	≈0 · ≈−0.1 · ≈−0.3%	—	TE (single source)

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	WTD	Note
Brent JANUARY	$94.62	−8.67%	−16.6%	Settle −$8.98, lowest since 31 Aug (Reuters via Cyprus Mail; fnnews names the contract; verified). Intraday low ≈$93 (TradingKey; unverified)
WTI DECEMBER	$88.12	−8.29%	−15.4%	Settle −$7.97 (same sources; verified). Brent–WTI $6.50. EIA crude −0.87m bbl vs +0.88m expected
Gold (spot) · silver · platinum	$4,061.90 · ≈$52.4 · ≈$1,410–1,465	+3.6% · ≈+5.2% · conflicted	+4.8% · — · —	Kitco bid 16:03 ET (verified); change against our $3,920 prior (Kitco’s own +3.37% uses its own base). Range $3,919–4,071. Silver TE; platinum pages conflict
Henry Hub · TTF	≈$2.96 · ≈€88	≈+2.4% · ≈−4.0%	—	TE (CFD). EU storage 74.56% on 2 Nov, lowest for the season; Germany 61.05%
Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX	$14,380 · $14,242 (2 Nov) · ≈$6.39/lb	—	−0.5% (cash, vs 30 Oct)	Westmetall (verified); LME stocks 293,775t. COMEX three-month low below $6.30 on Tue (TE)
Iron ore 62% · aluminium	$91.03 (3 Nov) · ≈$3,086	−0.24% · ≈+1.3%	—	TE CFD (not SGX, not the MMI 61% series used in No. 042). DCE +1.64% Wed
Lithium carb. · uranium	CNY92,850 · ≈$92.05	≈−1.0% · —	—	TE summary table, possibly stale (unverified)
Bitcoin	≈$80,300	≈+3.5%	≈+3.0%	CoinGecko ≈21:00–22:00 UTC (unverified; sign inferred). Below $76k on election night
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,421 · $95.18 · $1.30 · $716	≈+5.5 · +2.3 · +2.4 · +2.6%	—	CoinGecko. Total cap ≈$2.79tn; BTC dominance 57.9%
Spot ETF flows (3 Nov)	BTC −$116m	3rd outflow day	≈−$1.16bn (3 sessions)	Farside via CryptoSlate (corroborated). IBIT −$95m. ETH table stale since 23 Oct; 4 Nov not published

Conventions: 1d is Wednesday 4 November; WTD is the change since Friday 30 October. US cash closes are derived from AP’s 3 November closes plus ABC/AP close-wording changes and a 16:03:58 EST real-time S&P quote, because the AP tabulation for Wednesday was not indexed at filing; Russell and VIX are 15:44 ET snapshots. Treasury vendor levels and the official par curve are shown on separate rows; the vendor changes are measured against Tuesday’s par and labelled. FX is TE intraday unless marked RBA 4pm. Trading Economics change columns are not used; levels only, changes recomputed. “≈” marks a vendor, intraday, CFD-based or derived level; “—” means not obtained.

What is driving markets

Four themes. Theme 1 is new today; themes 2–4 carry their running names.

1. The midterm verdict: gridlock, a shorter war, and an AI-regulation discount

The pre-vote framing was BofA’s: “a Democratic sweep is priced”, “a Democratic wave and a jump in bond yields” is not (Flow Show, 30 Oct). The wave arrived and yields fell. Three channels showed up in one session. Fiscal: a split government removes the tax-cut and spending upside; GS economists see a partial reversal of spending cuts adding ≈0.25% of GDP to 2027 spending, a small number. War: the Vance post and Trump’s “no immediate plans” line were read as a political ceiling on escalation, which is why crude, defence and the dollar fell together. Regulation: the AI-infrastructure chain (data-centre builders −20–25%, Siemens Energy −8%, Japanese components −9–11%) and Trump Media (−15.8%) sold, while health care, solar and staples rallied. The seasonality is supportive: the S&P has been higher a year after every midterm since 1950, +15% on average, but a Republican president with a Democratic Congress has averaged only +4.9% a year (Carson via Bloomberg; corroborated), and the 2018 analogue ran +2.1% the next day and −2.2% a month later.

So whatThe relief is in the index and the damage is in the AI-capex supply chain, which is the leadership V031 hedges. Do not read Wednesday’s index rally as a V031 problem until the Nasdaq-100 closes are in: the hedge is written against hardware leadership, and the hardware names were the losers. The uncalled House seats are now a margin question, not a control question.

2. Oil is pricing the politics of the war, not its physical flows

Brent January has gone from $113.43 on Friday to $94.62 on Wednesday, −16.6% in three sessions. Every input that moved it was political: a Democratic Congress, the Vance post, Trump’s “no immediate plans”, a reported US approval of Qatar’s draft MoU. The physical inputs have not moved with it. Kpler counted 5 commodity vessels through Hormuz on 31 October and 0 on 1 November, against 31 the weekend before and 130+ a day pre-war; Vortexa has Gulf exports at 17.1 mb/d in October against 18.9 in September; JMIC had ≈492 vessels waiting outside the strait on 25 October; UKMTO logged a projectile strike off Oman on 3 November; and the IRGC claims four tankers mined on Wednesday (unverified). Iran’s side is not signing: Rezaei called the US reply “not convincing”, and the seven conditions include sanctions relief, frozen assets and compensation. EIA drew across the barrel (crude −0.87m, distillates −3.57m, refinery runs 94.5%). JPMorgan’s ≈1.4 mb/d October surplus estimate is the bear case that the fall leans on (XTB).

So whatThe gap between price and flows is the risk, in both directions. A signed MoU and a confirmed reopening take Brent toward V024’s $81.51–84.51 band; a failed reply or a CENTCOM campaign reverses most of this week. We would not add to either side here. Energy-versus-consumer equity pairs and the TTF–Brent relationship (EU storage at a seasonal low of 74.56%) are where the mispricing, if any, is cleanest.

3. The term-premium regime is under test from the front, not the long end

The regime tag says the long end sets the price. On Tuesday the official par curve still said so: 10-year 4.95%, 30-year 5.32%, 5s30s 58bp (Treasury; verified). Wednesday’s move came from oil and the dollar, not from supply: the refunding held coupon sizes for “the next several quarters” and restructured the 7-year, which removes one long-end tail for now. The front end is pinned by the Fed: December is priced ≈80% for a hike (CME 81.2%, Kalshi 80.5%) with ISM prices paid at 73.0. Leveraged funds were short 6.88m Treasury contracts on 27 October, 81k more on the week (CFTC TFF; verified), consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure; that stock of shorts did not prevent a rally and would amplify one. The FMS rotation trigger is a 5.9% 10-year (October FMS), far from here.

So whatKeep the regime tag but mark it under test for a second session; a regime change would need the official par 10-year below 4.85% with oil under $90, which is not yet on the tape. Payrolls (Sat 00:30 AEDT, 65k consensus) and CPI (Wed 11 Nov 00:30 AEDT) decide whether lower oil reaches the December pricing.

4. AI-capex financing: the bond market keeps writing the cheques

In eight sessions the hyperscalers have issued roughly $50bn in US dollars (Microsoft ≥$25bn, Oracle $10bn, Meta $15bn) plus Alphabet’s €6bn, with Meta’s debut euro deal of up to €9bn pricing overnight. Meta’s USD book was reported near $58bn for a $15bn deal at initial guidance of T+130 to T+250bp across 5–30 years (Bloomberg via Newsquawk; single source on the book). Nikkei puts off-balance-sheet AI debt at five large US tech firms at ≈$3.2tn, up ≈90% in six months (via Newsquawk; single source). High-yield is where the stress shows: FRED HY 340bp on 3 November, 26bp wider than the 314bp low of 28 October; CCC 1,319bp. FactSet’s Q3 blended EPS growth is 30.2% with 82% beating, but the net margin fell to 14.9% from 17.0% in Q2 (FactSet, 30 Oct; verified).

So whatDemand for IG paper is not the constraint; the price of equity for the builders is. V017 (underweight HY/CCC) stays High. Qualcomm and Arm after Wednesday’s close, and Nvidia on 17 November (≈08:20 AEDT Wed 18 Nov), are the next marks for the chain.

Central bank watch

The Riksbank hiked, the BoE is expected to follow tonight, and NZ jobs took the RBNZ’s December hike below even odds.

Pricing for the 9 December FOMC, by source

Current target range 3.75–4.00% (held 28 Oct, 10–2). No settled post-17:00 ET read of Wednesday is available. CME FedWatch 13:10 UTC Wed, before ADP (TechFlow; secondary). Kalshi 80.5¢ and Polymarket 79.5¢ for a hike at 11:21 ET Wed (defirate; corroborated); the residual is shown as no hike. The Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor is still stamped “Oct 27, 2026 09:25AM EDT” and is shown for reference only.

3.75–4.00% (no hike)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp)	Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP	Dec +25bp ≈80%: CME 81.2% (13:10 UTC, pre-ADP), Kalshi 80.5%, Polymarket 79.5% (11:21 ET). Logan: “at least two more” hikes (30 Oct)	Hawkish hold
RBA	4.85%	+25bp 3 Nov, 6–3; tightening line dropped	Tue 8 Dec 14:30	Dec ≈hold (<10%) · Feb ≈22% · Mar ≈30% of +25bp (derived from ASX IB settles 4 Nov). Hauser speaks 17:45 today	Hiked, now on hold
ECB	DFR 2.50%	Held 29 Oct	Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45	December hike signalled (Nagel “very likely necessary”); Oct HICP 4.0% (TE)	Hawkish hold
BoJ	1.25%	Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%)	Fri 18 Dec (BoJ; verified)	December seen as live; September minutes 10:50 today; Summary of Opinions Tue 10 Nov	Hawkish hold
BoE	3.75%	Held Sep, 6–3 (three for +25bp)	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	+25bp to 4.00%: 29 of 32 houses; modal vote 7–2 (Taylor, Dhingra hold) (Finchiefs; corroborated). Market ≈4 hikes over 12 months	Hike expected
RBNZ	2.75%	Held 28 Oct, 4–3	Wed 9 Dec (date per minutes’ cadence; unconfirmed)	Dec hike odds below 50% from ≈75% after Q3 unemployment 5.7% (AAP; no OIS figure obtained). 2y swap ≈−6bp to ≈3.78%	Tightening bias, fading
BoC	2.50%	+25bp 28 Oct	Thu 10 Dec 01:45	Signalled more may be needed; federal budget today	Hiking, careful
SNB	0.00%	Held 24 Sep	Thu 10 Dec	Hike bets toward mid-2027 (carried)	On hold
Riksbank · Norges	2.00% · 4.50%	Riks +25bp 4 Nov (first since Sep 2023; “further tightening likely”; vote not obtained) · Norges +25bp Sep	Riks Wed 16 Dec · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00	Norges: hold consensus (TE; single source)	Hawkish
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Held 20 Oct; FX RRR to 6% from 15 Nov	LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00	4 Nov fix 6.7180 vs 6.6811 estimate (corroborated); equity-purchase lending >CNY200bn	Supporting equities, leaning on CNY
Emerging markets
Brazil (BCB)	13.75%	−25bp 16 Sep	Copom Wed 4 Nov (≈08:30 AEDT Thu)	Decision not obtained at filing. Valor survey: 72 of 105 for a hold, 33 for −25bp; B3 options ≈72.5% hold	Watch
Poland (NBP) · Mexico (Banxico)	3.75% · 6.50%	NBP held 4 Nov (7th hold; Oct CPI 3.5% vs 3.7%) · Banxico held 24 Sep	NBP 2 Dec · Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00	Banxico hold consensus (TE; single source)	Hold
Malaysia (BNM) · Korea (BoK) · India (RBI)	2.75% · 3.00% · 5.50%	BNM 7 holds · BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct	BNM Thu 5 Nov 18:00 · BoK 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec	BNM hold consensus (TE, The Star; corroborated)	Mixed

Fed. Nothing from Fed speakers between 2 and 4 November was found; the last on record are Logan (“at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases”), Musalem (“additional firming… will be necessary, and soon”) and Barkin (“the question, though, is pace”), all 30 October (Yahoo; corroborated). The hike case rests on services prices (ISM 73.0) and the September CPI (3.7% y/y, 0.6% m/m); the oil fall works against it with a lag. Pre-meeting blackout starts 28 November.

BoE tonight. The first hike since 2023 is the consensus, with the MPR and the vote the information. Three members voted to hike in September; a 7–2 split with Taylor and Dhingra holding is the modal call, and the base case is one more in February to 4.25%. Gilts rallied ≈11bp on Wednesday into the meeting, so the pushback against ≈4 priced hikes is where the reaction sits. Pill speaks Friday 23:15 AEDT.

RBNZ. The Q3 labour report broke the hiking case: unemployment 5.7% (consensus and RBNZ forecast 5.5%), employment −0.1% q/q (consensus +0.4%), participation 70.4%, the most unemployed since 1993; private LCI ex-overtime 2.0% y/y against CPI 3.7%. The 28 October 4–3 hold now looks like the peak of the argument rather than a delay. NZ votes on Saturday 7 November (AAP; single source).

Regional briefs

United States, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan, China and emerging markets.

United States

A Democratic Congress lowers the fiscal and war premia without touching the Fed. Projected majorities of ≥54 Senate and ≥231 House seats give Democrats the investigative and appropriations levers from 3 January; the lame duck (Republican-controlled) handles the 11 December funding deadline. The tariff architecture stays executive: IEEPA tariffs were struck down on 20 February, Section 122’s 10% replacement was ruled invalid by the CIT and stayed on appeal, and Section 301/338 duties remain (Shapiro, last updated 9 Sep). Data are firm: ADP +86k, ISM services 54.5 with prices 73.0, JOLTS 7.5m (Tuesday). Q3 earnings: 82% beat, blended EPS +30.2% (FactSet, 30 Oct). Payrolls Saturday 00:30 AEDT (65k consensus, unemployment 4.2%).

Euro area

Europe took the US result as a reduction in transatlantic risk. Stoxx 600 +1.82% to 657.40 and banks +4.6% were the cleanest expression; defence fell. Euro-area October HICP at 4.0% (a three-year high) keeps the ECB on course for 17 December; Nagel calls a hike “very likely necessary” and says France’s budget “isn’t a task for monetary policy”. France: Fitch affirmed A+ with a negative outlook on 30 October; no 2027 budget is adopted and the government has no majority; services PMI 46.2 is contractionary. OAT–Bund 161.8bp on the dedicated series (3 Nov). German services PMI revised up to 52.5; BMW cut its auto EBIT margin guide to −0.5% to 0.5%.

United Kingdom

The BoE hikes into a gilt rally. The 10-year fell ≈11bp to ≈5.14% on Wednesday (TE; conflicting page text at 5.23%) and the FTSE 100 rose ≈1.9% to ≈10,838. Services PMI 52.8 (flash 53.1). A hike to 4.00% with a 7–2 vote is consensus; the MPR’s inflation path with oil now near $95 rather than $110 is the swing variable. The Times reports the EU wants the UK bound by its Chinese-EV tariffs as a condition of market access (via Newsquawk). Q3 GDP Thursday 12 November.

Japan

Tokyo reopened into the AI-regulation sell-off. The Nikkei fell ≈1.8% across two sessions to ≈61,945 after touching ≈60,030, a five-month low; components (Murata, Taiyo Yuden) and chip equipment (Advantest, Tokyo Electron) led the fall; trading houses rose (Mitsubishi +7.9%). JGB 10-year ≈2.82% (+4.6bp), 30-year ≈3.93%. USD/JPY ≈157.9 with the yen firmer on the dollar’s fall; MoF’s Katayama said on 2 November authorities were ready to act. The BoJ said underlying inflation has reached 2% at its 30 October hold; September minutes land at 10:50 today and the Summary of Opinions Tuesday. Legacy speculators were net long 101.6k yen (+31.7k) while TFF leveraged funds were net short 14.6k on 27 October (CFTC; verified) — opposite signs.

China & Hong Kong

Beijing is buying equities and leaning against the yuan at the same time. CSI 300 +2.31% and Shenzhen +4.22% on PBoC stock-purchase lending above CNY200bn and CNY100bn of broker swaps (TE; single source). The 4 November fix at 6.7180 sat ≈369 pips weak of the 6.6811 estimate, and the FX reserve requirement rises to 6% from 15 November — both slow CNY strength. RatingDog services PMI fell to 50.8 (a three-month low) with input costs at a five-month high. HK PMI 50.2. Hang Seng ≈23,920 (+1.67%), HS Tech +1.77%, with Hua Hong +15.7% and SMIC +8.9%. October CPI/PPI Monday 12:30 AEDT, trade Tuesday 14:00.

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Korea and Taiwan are where the US AI-regulation read lands hardest. KOSPI +0.62% to 5,683.80 after swinging from +2.4% to −4.0% (provisional; sources conflict); LG Energy Solution −6.2% on a Democratic tilt to batteries and renewables. US officials are reported to be holding SK hynix’s China tool approvals (single source). TAIEX −0.83%, a fifth fall, lowest close since 30 July; TSMC −1.5%; Taiwan October CPI today. India: Sensex +0.50% to 77,301.40, a fifth gain, on FPI buying and lower crude; IT lagged (TCS −2.6%). Brazil: Copom decision not obtained at filing (consensus hold at 13.75%). Mexico: Banxico Friday 06:00 AEDT, hold expected. Poland held at 3.75%.

Australia & New Zealand

The home market: a dovish hike digested, a weak NZ print, and the ASX trading the US count live.

RBA: priced for a hold, with February live

Cash rate 4.85% after Tuesday’s 6–3 hike, the highest since December 2008; the statement dropped its explicit tightening language and Bullock called it “probably good to wait now and assess incoming data” while saying the hike “might not be the last one” (investingLive; corroborated). The 30-day interbank strip on Wednesday’s settles (ASX; verified, implied rates derived): Nov 95.180 (4.820%), Dec 95.140 (4.860%), Jan 95.130 (4.870%), Feb 95.095 (4.905%, ≈22% of +25bp), Mar 95.075 (4.925%, ≈30%), Jun 95.100 (4.900%). Each contract fell 1–1.5bp on the day, so pricing edged up, not down, after the NZ data. Pre-decision calls: CBA and NAB see 4.85% as the peak (CBA cuts from August 2027), Westpac flags a rising February risk, ANZ a material risk of 5.10% (Savings.com.au, 30 Oct). The hike count is disputed: TE calls it the fifth of 2026, CBA commentary implies four (§13). Hauser gives the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture at 17:45 today; minutes 17 November; October labour force Thursday 19 November.

Markets: ASX trades the count, AUD flat, ACGBs steady

Equities. ASX 200 −0.59% to 8,834.50 (AAP; verified), a one-week low; All Ords 8,954.90. Materials led the fall as copper hit its lowest since July (BHP −2.9%, Rio −2.3%, Fortescue −2.3%); REA −3.6% and Goodman −3.2% took real estate back below Tuesday’s post-RBA level; financials gave up their RBA gains; energy (+0.6% midday) and staples outperformed. Gold miners fell with gold at ≈US$3,981 during the session, before the overnight rally to $4,061.90 — a gap the open has to absorb. Canva is cutting or relocating ≈1,300 roles; David Jones is reported near voluntary administration; Ramelius has hired Barrenjoey for Northern Star’s Carosue Dam (≈$800m). SPI December settled 8,856 (−41; ASX, verified), ≈21 points over cash. Rates. ACGB 2y ≈4.87%, 3y ≈4.77%, 10y ≈5.09% (TE), with YT ≈4.745% and XT ≈5.090% on futures. AUD. 0.6972 on the RBA table, 69.83c at 17:00 (AAP), ≈0.700 later in New York as the US dollar fell. AUD/JPY 110.05 (RBA).

Data, property and the China link

September household spending +0.6% m/m against 0.2% consensus (prior revised −0.1%), +6.8% y/y; health and transport +1.5%, every state up (ABS via TE; verified). Trade balance at 11:30 today: consensus A$1.0bn surplus (TE forecast A$1.5bn), August A$0.495bn. Cotality October: national −1.2% m/m (Sydney −1.6%, Brisbane −2.0%, Perth −1.7%), 6.7% below the March peak, +3.7% y/y; AAP reports a record fall in investor home loans (figures not obtained). Iron ore 62% $91.03 on 3 November (TE CFD); DCE +1.64% on Wednesday as China’s equity support lifted sentiment; copper at a three-month COMEX low is what hit the miners.

New Zealand

Q3 unemployment 5.7% (consensus 5.5%, prior 5.6%), employment −0.1% q/q, participation 70.4%, 174k unemployed — the most since 1993 (Stats NZ via TE and AAP; corroborated). ANZ’s Zollner: “disappointing all ’round”. December RBNZ hike odds fell below 50% from ≈75%; 2-year swap ≈−6bp to ≈3.78%. NZD/USD fell to ≈0.5583 before recovering with the dollar’s fall. AUD/NZD rose to 1.2463 on the RBA table, from 1.2404. NZX 50 +0.46% to 13,783.45. General election Saturday 7 November (single source).

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.85% (3 Nov, 6–3)	4.60%	Tue 8 Dec 14:30 · minutes 17 Nov 11:30
Household spending (Sep) m/m · y/y	+0.6% · +6.8%	−0.1% (rev.) · 6.5%	Oct: early Dec
Trade balance (Sep)	— (today)	A$0.495bn	Thu 5 Nov 11:30 · cons. A$1.0bn
Cotality home values (Oct)	−1.2% m/m	−1.3% (rev.)	Nov: 1 Dec
Labour force (Oct)	—	Sep: −39.3k, 4.7%	Thu 19 Nov 11:30 · cons. +34k
Wage price index (Q3)	—	0.8% q/q · 3.2% y/y	Wed 18 Nov 11:30
Westpac sentiment · NAB confidence	80.4 · −13		Tue 10 Nov 10:30 · 11:30
30-day IB: Feb · Mar 2027	4.905% · 4.925%	≈22% · ≈30% of +25bp	Daily (ASX settles)

House views & tactical framework

Six open, none closed, no condition changed. V023 moved 63 pips clear of its stop on NZ jobs; V024’s band is ≈$10 below a $94.62 settle; V031 is marked on both days.

What moved. V023: the RBA table printed 1.2463 on 4 November (verified), 63 pips above the 1.2400 stop; the count stays 0 of 2 (neither 3 Nov’s 1.2404 nor 4 Nov’s close is below the line) and the view is +1.20% against the ≈1.2315 entry; the 1.2600 RIGHT line is 137 pips away. V006: ASX 200 8,834.50 (verified), 0 of 2, +1.90% in favour of the 9,005.9 entry, 65.5 points under the line. V017: HY 340bp (3 Nov), IG 94bp and CCC 1,319bp (2 Nov) (FRED; verified); the mirror is 35bp away and the exit (CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter) 269bp away. V025: dedicated series 161.8bp (3 Nov, verified), 21.8bp above the mirror; a derived Wednesday read near 154bp rests on a single-source OAT and is not a mark. V031: the Nasdaq-100 closed 28,180.26 on 3 Nov and 28,437.17 on 4 Nov (Yahoo close stamps; single source, the 3 Nov figure also in Newsquawk’s wrap), 2.57% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry and 8.8% below the 30,932 close line; the index gained 0.91% against the Composite’s ≈1.4%. V024: January settled $94.62 on 4 Nov (Reuters; verified), −$8.98, ≈$10.11 above the top of the $81.51–84.51 band; no settle is inside it.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	High	1–3 mo	Dedicated series 161.8bp (3 Nov, verified), +1.9bp. Fitch outlook negative; no 2027 budget; services PMI 46.2; Nagel: France’s budget “isn’t a task for monetary policy”	MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (21.8bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	FRED HY 340bp (3 Nov); IG 94, CCC 1,319bp (2 Nov) — verified. IG books deep (Meta ≈$58bn for $15bn); HY 26bp off its 28 Oct low; AI builders −20–25% in equity	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (269bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (35bp away)
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	8,834.50 against 9,005.9: +1.90% in favour. 0 of 2. Materials hit by copper; banks gave back RBA gains; the overnight US rally and gold gap work against the view at the open	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (0 of 2; 65.5 points away; intraday prints do not count)
Nasdaq-100 (V031)	Put spread (hedge)	Low	1–2 mo	28,437.17 on 4 Nov (Yahoo close stamp): 2.57% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry. AI builders −20–25%; NDX +0.91% vs Composite ≈+1.4%; Qualcomm beat, after-hours conflicted; Nvidia 17 Nov	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (8.8% above Wednesday’s mark)
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	1.2463 on the RBA 4pm table, 4 Nov (verified), +1.20% against ≈1.2315. NZ unemployment 5.7% vs 5.5%; RBNZ Dec hike odds below 50%; RBA Feb ≈22%	PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (63 pips; 0 of 2; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (137 pips)
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	January settles $103.60 (3 Nov) and $94.62 (4 Nov) — verified. The fall is political (Democratic Congress, Vance post, Trump “no immediate plans”); flows still near zero (Kpler 0–5 vessels a day, 31 Oct–1 Nov)	UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$10 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms

Portfolio-level read. Two of yesterday’s three binaries resolved in one night, and both in the risk-on direction: the US count and, provisionally, the war premium. The book is still positioned for stress in AI financing (V031, V017) and for French fiscal risk (V025), and Wednesday split cleanly on that line: the index rallied while the AI-hardware chain and high-yield did not. V023 moved away from its stop for a reason (NZ labour), not by drift. No new view: the candidate is a Brent-versus-flows mean reversion, and we would want either a signed MoU or a failed reply before committing in either direction.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The “what changes the view” column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project’s views ledger. Scorecard: six open; 25 closed (3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch).

Positioning, flows & sentiment

Who was positioned for what going into the count; the next CFTC report (3 Nov positions) lands Saturday 07:30 AEDT.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC — data as of Tue 27 Oct, released Fri 30 Oct (verified; nets derived)
Treasuries — TFF leveraged funds net (six contracts)	−6,877,271	−80.9k w/w	2y −1.36m · 5y −2.08m · 10y −2.23m · ultra-10 −258k · bond −150k · ultra-bond −806k; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure
E-mini S&P — LF net · legacy non-comm.	−400.6k · −134.4k	−29.4k · +8.3k	LF short grew into the vote; a squeeze source on Wednesday’s tape
Nasdaq mini — LF net · legacy	+2.3k · +48.8k	+1.4k · −1.9k	No crowded short in the Nasdaq complex
JPY — LF · legacy non-comm.	−14.6k · +101.6k	+8.3k · +31.7k	Opposite signs; legacy long building into the December BoJ
AUD — LF · legacy	+48.4k · −128.3k	−4.1k · −1.0k	Opposite signs; raw rows not re-checked (summariser)
EUR · GBP · NZD · CAD — LF	−71.6k · +17.2k · −22.6k · −96.7k		Legacy: −143.9k · −79.4k · −57.7k · −66.4k
WTI managed money (disagg.) · gold legacy non-comm.	+31.1k · +186.5k	−5.1k · −13.4k	Oil length light into a 9% fall; gold length cut before the +3.4% day
Flows
BofA Flow Show (30 Oct)	Equities +$56.2bn · bonds +$15.4bn · cash +$3.4bn	Crypto −$0.5bn · gold −$1.7bn	US equities +$14.9bn (4th wk); China +$25.7bn; Europe −$2.3bn; HY +$1.8bn (first in 5 wks); Bull & Bear 7.1 (Newsquawk; secondary). Next Fri 6 Nov
ICI combined (w/e 21 Oct) · MMF assets (28 Oct)	+$12.32bn · $7.901tn	MMF −$43.3bn	Equity +$13.89bn; bonds −$0.17bn (ICI; verified)
Spot BTC ETFs (Farside)	−$116m (3 Nov)	−$1.16bn over 3 sessions	IBIT −$95m (CryptoSlate; corroborated). ETH table stale
Sentiment & surveys
BofA FMS (Oct; Nov not yet published)	Cash 3.9% · tech net 37% OW	B&B 8.1 at survey	Consumer discretionary −34%, most UW since 2008; tail risks: disorderly yields, AI-capex cuts; 5.9% 10y would trigger rotation (Finvaulta; corroborated)
AAII (w/e 28 Oct)	Bulls 37.8% · Bears 41.4%	Spread −3.6	Next reading tonight (AAII; verified)
Fear & Greed (replica, 3 Nov)	18 · extreme fear	13 sessions in the zone	Pre-vote reading; Wednesday’s rally will lift it (thetrading.tools; replica)
Options / vol	P/C 0.90 (30 Oct) · SKEW 150.0 (3 Nov)	SKEW 96th pct since 1990	VIX/VIX3M 0.979 on 3 Nov; futures front backwardated (Nov 20.375 vs Dec 19.844)
Breadth · Hindenburg	65.9% above 200d (2 Nov) · 1 of 4	Inactive	SPY below its 50-day on 3 Nov; new lows 4.80% of issues
Valuation & earnings (FactSet, 30 Oct; verified)
Q3 blended EPS growth · beat rate	+30.2% · 82%	Revenue +13.4%, 70% beat	Net margin 14.9% vs 17.0% in Q2; Q4 guidance 19 negative / 28 positive
Forward P/E · CY26 / CY27 EPS	18.7× · +32.9% / +16.3%	5-yr 19.8 · 10-yr 19.1	Bottom-up target 9,327.80. Next report Fri 6 Nov
Sell-side after the vote (dated 31 Oct – 4 Nov)
Year-end S&P targets	GS 8,000 · MS 8,000 · JPM 8,000 · CFRA 8,050		MS Wilson tactical downside 7,100–7,200 (31 Oct); RBC: divided-government record “not as good”; JPM MI sees an advance more likely than a decline (Beinsure, WealthManagement; aggregator, unverified on dates)

The week ahead

Thursday 5 to Friday 13 November, then the decisions into December. Times in AEDT (UTC+11) with US Eastern (EST, UTC−5) alongside.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Thursday 5 November — BoE day
Thu	≈08:00	Wed 16:00	Qualcomm, Arm, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Snap results	QCOM EPS 2.16 · ARM 0.47–0.48		M
Thu	10:30 · 10:50	Wed 18:30 · 18:50	JP cash earnings (Sep) · BoJ September minutes	4.0%	3.8%	M
Thu	11:30	Wed 19:30	AU trade balance (Sep)	A$1.0bn	A$0.495bn	M
Thu	≈12:15	Wed 20:15	PBoC USD/CNY fix · Taiwan CPI (Oct) · DBS results		6.7180	L
Thu	17:45	01:45	RBA Deputy Governor Hauser — Sir Leslie Melville Lecture			H
Thu	18:00	02:00	BNM decision · DE factory orders (Sep) m/m	2.75% hold · +3.6–4.8%	2.75% · −10.6%	L
Thu	20:00	04:00	Norges Bank (no MPR)	4.50% hold	4.50%	M
Thu	23:00	07:00	BoE decision, MPR and minutes	4.00% (7–2)	3.75% (6–3)	H
Thu	≈23:30	07:30	US Challenger job cuts (Oct) — time unverified	51k	43.3k	L
Thu	00:30 Fri	08:30	US initial claims · continuing · Q3 productivity · ULC (prelim)	196k · 1,710k · 2.8% · —	194k · 1,701k · 1.4% · 1.2%	M
Thu	day	—	Canada federal budget · AAII sentiment			L
Friday 6 November
Fri	06:00	Thu 14:00	Banxico decision · Copom read-through	6.50% hold	6.50%	L
Fri	18:00	02:00	DE industrial production (Sep) m/m · OCBC results	0.0%	+2.0%	L
Fri	23:15	07:15	BoE Pill speaks · BofA Flow Show · FactSet Earnings Insight			M
Sat	00:30	Fri 08:30	US payrolls (Oct) · unemployment · AHE m/m · Canada jobs	65k · 4.2% · 0.2–0.3%	29k · 4.2% · 0.1%	H
Sat	02:00	Fri 10:00	UMich sentiment prelim (Nov) · 1-yr inflation expectations	≈47–48	48.0 · 4.7%	M
Sat	07:30	Fri 15:30	CFTC COT (positions as of 3 Nov) · US consumer credit (Sep)		$8.28bn	M
Sat	day	—	New Zealand general election (single source)			M
Monday 9 – Friday 13 November
Mon 9	09:30 · 12:30	Sun 17:30 · 20:30	RBA Asst Gov Hunter · China CPI / PPI (Oct) y/y	— · PPI 5.2%	0.9% · 5.0%	H
Tue 10	10:30 · 10:50 · 11:30	Mon 18:30–19:30	Westpac sentiment (Nov) · BoJ Summary of Opinions · NAB business (Oct)		80.4 · — · −13	M
Tue 10	14:00	Mon 22:00	China trade (Oct)		$133.5bn; X +36.3%	M
Tue 10–Wed 11	—	—	Russia–Ukraine talks, Abu Dhabi (US-brokered) · UST 3y/10y/30y refunding auctions ($58/42/25bn)			H
Wed 11	00:30	Tue 08:30	US CPI (Oct) — headline m/m · y/y · core m/m	0.2% · 3.7% · 0.2% (TE)	0.6% · 3.7% · 0.3%	H
Wed 11	—	—	US Veterans Day: bond market closed, equities open (convention; not checked against SIFMA) · RBNZ FSR 07:00			M
Thu 12	10:30 · 18:00	Wed 18:30 · 02:00	MPB member Baker · UK Q3 GDP q/q prelim	0.4%	0.5%	M
Sat 14	00:30	Fri 08:30	US PPI (Oct) m/m · core m/m	0.1% · 0.5%	1.3% · 0.7%	M
The sessions after — into the December decisions
17–19 Nov	—	—	RBA minutes (17th 11:30) · UK labour · US retail sales · Nvidia Q3 FY27 (≈08:20 AEDT Wed 18th) · AU WPI (18th) · FOMC minutes · AU labour force (Thu 19th 11:30)	LF +34k	−39.3k · 4.7%	H
20–26 Nov	—	—	China LPR (20th) · S&P France review (week of 23rd; carried) · BoK (26th) · Thanksgiving (26th)			M
1–11 Dec	—	—	GA/MS runoffs (1st) · NBP (2nd) · RBI (4th) · RBA Tue 8th 14:30 · RBNZ ≈9th · FOMC 06:00 Thu 10th · BoC · SNB (10th) · US funding deadline (11th)	Fed ≈80% hike		H
16–18 Dec	—	—	Riksbank (16th) · ECB and BoE (17th; ECB 00:15 AEDT Fri 18th) · BoJ (Fri 18th)			H

Consensus figures are from Trading Economics and Newsquawk calendars as of 4 November and can shift; TE’s column mapping was inferred where only figures were extracted (ULC, AHE, UMich and consumer credit are the least certain). Payrolls consensus 65k is corroborated by Newsquawk. Importance ratings are this desk’s judgement. AEDT = EST + 16h until US DST resumes in March.

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	The Iran deal fails after oil has priced it	Iran’s reply to the Qatari MoU; CENTCOM “short, intense” campaign reports; Hormuz mine claims		Brent back through $103–110; TTF above €95 with EU storage at a seasonal low; term premium up	V024’s residual call; energy vs consumer pairs
2	AI-capex discount moves from equity into credit	Qualcomm/Arm tonight; Nvidia 17 Nov; hyperscaler supply (Meta €9bn)		HY through 360bp; Korea/Taiwan/Japan components a further leg lower; NDX toward 27,000	V017; V031
3	Fed hikes 9 December regardless of oil	Payrolls Sat 00:30; CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30	≈80% (CME 81.2%, Kalshi 80.5%)	2-year back above 4.65%; dollar firmer; gold gives back Wednesday	2-year options
4	Short-covering extends into a fear-to-greed swing	LF E-mini net −400.6k; Fear & Greed 18 pre-vote; post-midterm seasonality		Index squeeze against V031 and V006 at the index level	Keep hedges as spreads, not outright shorts
5	Disorderly long end returns with supply	3/10/30-year auctions 10–12 Nov ($125bn); LF short −6.88m contracts	FMS top tail risk	10-year back above 5%; regime confirmed rather than tested	Low duration; payer spreads
6	BoE pushback triggers a gilt reversal	Tonight 23:00 + MPR	Hike: 29 of 32 houses	A hawkish split (3+ for more) reverses Wednesday’s 11bp gilt rally; GBP up	Short-sterling options
7	France: rating channel	No 2027 budget; S&P review week of 23 Nov (carried)		OAT–Bund through 171.8bp then 174.6bp	V025 (High)
8	NZ election and an RBNZ pivot	Election Sat 7 Nov; RBNZ ≈9 Dec	Dec hike <50% (from ≈75%)	NZD weaker; AUD/NZD toward V023’s 1.2600 RIGHT line	V023
9	Yen squeeze toward the December BoJ	Minutes today; Summary of Opinions Tue; legacy specs +101.6k yen		USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind	Short-dated USD/JPY puts
10	China support stops at equities	CPI/PPI 9 Nov; trade 10 Nov; FX RRR 15 Nov		Iron ore below $89; ASX materials; AUD crosses	Short iron ore vs copper
11	Crypto liquidity after the Binance hack	≈$6.3bn taken 30 Oct, ≈$3bn frozen; ETF outflows three sessions		BTC back below $76,000	No view open

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed; unattributed levels are our reading.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	≈7,688.56	7,568.92 (Tue) · ≈7,313 (200-day, derived 2 Nov) · 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson)	≈7,695 (50-day) · ≈7,718 (20-day) · 7,801.77 (8 Oct)	MAs carried from No. 042
Nasdaq-100	28,437.17	27,989.82 (2 Nov) · 27,500 · 27,000	28,384.85 (30 Oct) · 29,402.51 (29 Oct) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes)	3 Nov 28,180.26 and 4 Nov 28,437.17 (Yahoo close stamps)
UST 10y · 2y	≈4.89% · ≈4.58%	4.85 · 4.55	4.95 (3 Nov par) · 5.05 (28 Oct par)	Par 4 Nov row ≈10:00 AEDT
OAT–Bund	161.8bp (3 Nov)	153.4 (29 Oct) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes)	171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct, one-year high)	Dedicated series is the mark
ACGB 3y · 10y	≈4.77 · ≈5.09%	4.70 · 5.00	4.86 · 5.15	Our reading; 10y at a two-month low
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	≈101.48 · ≈1.1232 · ≈157.9	101.00 · 1.1158 · 156.08	102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.7	Our reading
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.6972 · 1.2463 (RBA)	0.6951 (CBA) · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes)	0.7023 (2 Nov RBA) · 0.7058 (200-day, Reuters) · 1.2600 (V023 RIGHT, two closes)	RBA 4pm table is the mark
Brent January	$94.62	$93 (Wed intraday, unverified) · $88 · $81.51–84.51 (V024)	$100.80 (3 Nov low) · $103.60 (3 Nov settle) · $113.43 (30 Oct)	Front month
Gold · Silver	$4,061.90 · ≈$52.4	$3,920 (Tue) · $3,875 (30 Oct)	$4,071 (Wed high, Kitco) · $4,150	Spot
S&P/ASX 200	8,834.50	8,795.2 (23 Oct) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone)	8,886.80 (Tue) · 8,900 (V006: 0 of 2 closes above) · 8,986 (30 Oct high)	Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried)
HY / IG / CCC OAS	340 / 94 / 1,319bp	HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits)	HY 344 (30 Oct) · 360 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct)	FRED; HY 3 Nov, IG/CCC 2 Nov
Bitcoin	≈$80,300	$76,000 · $74,000	$81,636 (28 Oct high) · $83,000	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was corrected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Thursday edition, the morning after the US midterm count. Six research desks ran in parallel from ≈06:05 AEDT; Asia, Australia and Europe were written first, and the US-close block was fetched by the lead after the 08:00 AEDT bell, per the timing protocol. At filing the AP tabulation for Wednesday had not been indexed and Yahoo’s index pages were serving cached copies, so the S&P 500 rests on a 16:03:58 EST real-time quote (Reuters via MarketScreener) corroborated by ABC/AP’s close wording (+1.5%), and the Dow and Nasdaq Composite levels are derived from AP’s 3 November closes and ABC/AP’s stated changes (+1,570 points; +1.4%). They carry “≈” and will be checked against the AP tabulation in Friday’s §13. The Nasdaq-100 closes for both days came from Yahoo’s close stamps. Oil settles are Reuters (verified). Primary reads this run: the RBA 4pm table (2–4 Nov); ASX end-of-day futures settlements (4 Nov); the official Treasury par curve (3 Nov row); ISM services; FRED (HY 3 Nov, IG and CCC 2 Nov); the OAT–Bund dedicated series (3 Nov); the CFTC TFF, legacy and disaggregated files as of 27 October; ICI; AAII; FactSet; Kitco; Westmetall; the RBA Coming Up diary; the BoJ schedule; Kalshi’s resolved Senate market. Every figure was retrieved on 4–5 November 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled. Published ≈09:00 AEDT, about 90 minutes after target: the US bell is at 08:00 AEDT until March, so a Tuesday–Friday edition cannot carry US closes before ≈08:30.

Corrections and updates to No. 042

(1) Russell 2000, 3 Nov: No. 042 printed 2,813.48 (Yahoo); the AP tabulation gives 2,812.45 (+6.57). Minor. S&P 7,568.92, Dow 51,786.72 and Nasdaq 25,372.01 are confirmed by AP.
(2) USD/JPY, 3 Nov: the 157.2–158.5 conflict resolves to ≈158.6–158.7 (TE prior close 158.69; consistent with the RBA cross). Yahoo’s 157.17 is not supported by any second source and is withdrawn.
(3) Official par, 3 Nov: 2y 4.61, 5y 4.74, 10y 4.95, 30y 5.32 (verified); No. 042’s vendor ≈4.62/4.95/5.33 stands.
(4) OAT–Bund, 3 Nov: 161.8bp (verified). (5) FRED: HY 340bp (3 Nov); IG 94bp and CCC 1,319bp (2 Nov).
(6) NZ Q3 labour (not obtained in No. 042): unemployment 5.7%, employment −0.1%, participation 70.4%.
(7) Doha “replies within 36 hours”: no formal reply was confirmed inside the window; Rezaei’s “not convincing” is a comment on the US response, not a reply to the MoU.
(8) Qeshm strike date: Trump places it on the night of 2–3 November; The National dates it to Monday 2 November. The “Tuesday” in No. 042 is replaced by “the night of 2–3 November”.
(9) RBA “fifth hike of 2026”: TE’s count; CBA and AAP references imply four. Unreconciled; the count is no longer used in prose.
(10) Discharged: AP 3 Nov; par 3 Nov; FRED HY 3 Nov, IG/CCC 2 Nov; OAT–Bund 3 Nov; RBA table 4 Nov; ASX 4 Nov; Brent Jan 4 Nov; NZ labour; midterm control. Still open: AP tabulation 4 Nov; official Russell and VIX closes; settled Fed Rate Monitor (stale since 27 Oct); Copom; Arm.

Conflicts and how they were resolved

ADP consensus: 75k (Dow Jones via CNBC) against 69k (Investing.com preview); the beat holds on either. KOSPI direction: TE’s Korea page +0.62% with a reconciling prior against TE’s Japan page “fell more than 3%” (likely intraday); the reconciling figure is shown and labelled provisional. Gilt 10-year: 5.14% (quote) against 5.23% (page text). Platinum: $1,410.30 (TE page) against $1,465.30 (TE table); not resolved. Iron ore series: No. 042 used MMI 61% ($90.70); today’s TE 62% CFD ($91.03) is a different series and is not compared. Hormuz flows: XTB’s “near pre-war levels” conflicts with Kpler (0–5 vessels a day on 31 Oct–1 Nov) and Vortexa (17.1 mb/d October Gulf exports); vessel counts are preferred. QCOM/ARM consensus: Newsquawk (QCOM 2.16, ARM 0.47) against AI Insider (1.46, 0.22); Newsquawk and TipRanks used. OAT vs BTP: TE’s single-page OAT 4.82% above BTP 4.32% is not used. Qualcomm after hours: +1.8% (Seeking Alpha, 16:03 ET) against “fell more than 4%” (Reuters-style copy via Rallies.ai); shown as conflicted. Nasdaq-100 vs Composite: NDX +0.91% (Yahoo close) against the Composite ≈+1.4% (ABC/AP); consistent with semis offsetting megacap gains, but the NDX is single source. Arm reporting date: Wednesday (Yahoo calendar) against Thursday (JournalArta).

Single-source and unverified items

Vance post (headline only) · IRGC mine and seizure claims · CENTCOM campaign reports · SK hynix tool approvals · PBoC equity-lending totals · Shanghai, CSI 300, KOSPI, TAIEX, Sensex, Nifty, NZX 50 (TE) · Nikkei level (TE, derived) · European index levels (TE CFD-based; Stoxx 600 verified) · OAT, BTP, gilt 30y, JGB 30y (TE) · FX except the RBA table (TE) · Meta book size and Nikkei’s $3.2tn AI-debt estimate (via Newsquawk) · refunding detail (TE, Investing; secondary) · Riksbank guidance (TE) · Norges, Banxico, NBP consensus (TE) · NZ election date (AAP) · sell-side targets (aggregators) · crypto prices (CoinGecko, no time stamp) · lithium, uranium, aluminium (possibly stale TE table) · copper COMEX, silver (TE).

Not obtained

AP tabulation for 4 Nov · official S&P, Dow, Nasdaq Composite, Russell and VIX closes · post-close Fed pricing · Copom decision · Arm results · DXY close · two-decimal Nikkei and TOPIX · SMI and Euro Stoxx 50 · ASX breadth · Riksbank vote split · RBNZ OIS level · BoJ and BoE OIS pricing · Fed speakers 2–4 Nov · Treasury refunding statement (sb0678) · Meta final USD pricing and euro outcome · BTC ETF flows 4 Nov · ETH ETF flows since 23 Oct · LME copper 3–4 Nov · SGX iron ore · EPFR · November FMS (not yet published) · SpotGamma levels · Eurozone final composite PMI.

Friday’s first verification targets

(1) RBA 4pm table today (V023, 0 of 2). (2) ASX 200 close today (V006, 0 of 2). (3) AP tabulation and Nasdaq-100 for 4 Nov if anything here is single-source (V031). (4) Par curve 4 Nov. (5) FRED HY 4 Nov, IG/CCC 3 Nov (V017). (6) OAT–Bund 4 Nov (V025). (7) Brent January settle Thursday (V024). (8) BoE decision and vote, Iran’s MoU reply, Qualcomm/Arm, settled Fed pricing, Copom.

United States, Fed & politics

Rates, FX & central banks

Australia, New Zealand & Asia

AAP via Shepparton News — ASX close 4 Nov · AAP midday
ASX — futures settlements 4 Nov
TE — household spending · trade balance · ACGB · Cotality
Savings.com.au — bank RBA calls
TE — NZ unemployment · AAP — NZ jobs · NZX 50
TE — Nikkei · China · RatingDog PMI · The Standard — Hang Seng
TE — KOSPI · TAIEX · Sensex/Nifty

Europe & geopolitics

Commodities, credit & digital assets

Calendars

Trading Economics calendar · FedRateCalc — November · Newsquawk — earnings estimates 4 Nov · Wall Street Horizon — Nvidia

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the time stamps shown and may have been revised. No. 043, Thursday 5 November 2026.