The bottom line
- The RBA decides at 14:30 with a hike to 4.85% ≈80% priced, and the ASX went in below V006's line. Monday's ASX November 30-day settle (95.220) implies a 4.80% post-meeting rate, ≈80% of a 25bp hike, and February carries ≈22% of another (our derivation; ASX settles verified); all four majors call 4.85%. The ASX 200 fell 0.58% to 8,856.50 (corroborated by five sources), so V006's two-close count resets to 0 of 2 and the underweight is +1.66% in favour. The RBA table printed AUD/NZD 1.2505 (verified), 105 pips above V023's stop and 95 below its profit line; today's 4pm print, after the decision, is the mark. Watch the SMP's trimmed-mean path and whether the tightening bias survives.
- Oil fell 7–8% on a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days. WTI December settled $96.46 (−$7.66; Dow Jones, verified), its first close below $100 since the October rally, and Brent January traded ≈$104.8 near the close (−7.6%; settle not obtained). Araghchi's plan has the US act on day one and shipping resume on day two, against conditions — sanctions relief, frozen funds, fewer US forces — that Washington has not accepted; IRNA says the Supreme Leader authorised the talks. Axios reports Netanyahu pressed Trump to resume strikes right after the vote. The curve fell most at the front (Dec-27 −$2.41), so the market is pricing a shorter disruption, not a lower long-run price. TTF fell ≈10% to ≈€93.
- The AI sell-off moved from equity into the bond market. Oracle launched a $20bn raise split between equity and debt (−6%), Alphabet priced a €6bn bond and Microsoft a $25bn deal, and Marvell's reported $115bn purchase of Lumentum sent both down 9–15%. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq 1.07% to 25,164.32 while the Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98 (corroborated; AP published but not loadable); the Nasdaq-100 is ≈27,999 (derived from QQQ), which puts V031 ≈4.1% in favour. The VIX closed 21.15 (+8.9%). This is the supply channel V017 was written for; FRED has not posted spreads since 29 October.
- The US votes today, and a Democratic sweep is the consensus at ≈73%. Prediction markets have Democrats ≈95% for the House and ≈73% for both chambers, a Republican sweep ≈5% (defirate relay, 2 Nov). Polls close from 10:00 AEDT Wednesday; California's mail ballots could delay the House call for weeks. Only 31% of October's FMS expected a sweep and BofA's flow strategists say a "bigger Democratic wave and a jump in bond yields" is not priced. The equity and long-end reaction lands during Wednesday's Sydney session; the post-vote Iran decision is the bigger cross-asset risk.
- Rates rallied at the long end; the Fed still prices December. ISM manufacturing printed 55.5 against 54.7 expected, with prices easing to 75.2 (ISM; verified). The vendor 10-year fell ≈5bp to ≈4.89% and the 30-year ≈6bp, the 2-year ≈1bp to ≈4.58% (corroborated; par posts tomorrow). December is ≈73% priced on Kalshi/Polymarket and ≈76% on CME (secondary). Treasury published its borrowing estimates but the release did not load at filing; the refunding statement is Thursday 00:30 AEDT, against leveraged-fund Treasury shorts of −6.88m contracts (CFTC, 27 Oct).
- Asia: Beijing props up equities, Korea rebounds, gold recovers. Regulators met financial institutions, the PBoC put ≈CNY100bn into its securities swap facility and a state bank reportedly plans up to CNY200bn of loans to state funds (single source): Shanghai +1.08%, Hang Seng +0.42%, HS Tech +2.25%. The KOSPI rose 2.24% to 5,859.08 (verified); the Nikkei fell 0.33% and Tokyo is closed today. Gold rose 1.8% to $3,944.80 (Kitco, 16:09 ET; verified). Bitcoin is ≈$76,900 as Binance's post-hack outflows reached ≈$4.7bn. Europe's sovereigns rallied with oil; Fitch put France's A+ on negative outlook late Friday (single source).
Overnight recap
Asia and Australia, Monday 2 November
The ASX 200 fell 51.60 points (−0.58%) to 8,856.50, snapping a two-day rise ahead of the RBA (Sharetrader, Reuters via Business Recorder, ad-hoc-news, AAP via CommBank, AP; corroborated, and the arithmetic ties to Friday's 8,908.10). Eight of 11 sectors fell: consumer staples −1.39% (Woolworths −1.9% to $39.46, Coles −1.75% to $21.28, a sixth straight fall), materials −1.34% (BHP −1.4% to $56.74, Rio −1.2% to $145.59, Northern Star −4.8%) and financials −0.63% (CBA −$1.67 to $165.05, NAB −1.5%). Industrials (+0.77%, Transurban +1.66%) and consumer discretionary (+0.65%) rose; KMD Brands +10.4% on exclusive talks with Bluestar. Westpac was the only major bank up (+1.0% to $37.19) after FY26 cash profit of $7.0bn against $6.96bn consensus, with the net interest margin 1.87% against 1.89% expected and CET1 12.5% (ABC; single source for the detail). The All Ordinaries fell 0.53% to 8,977.2. The SPI December contract settled 8,866 (−52; ASX, verified). The ACGB curve bear-flattened modestly: 2-year ≈4.95% (+3bp), 3-year ≈4.86% (+2bp), 10-year ≈5.15% (+2bp) (TE; single source, direction corroborated by YT/XT futures). September dwelling approvals rose 5.1% m/m on apartments (+16.6%) with houses −5.3%; the Melbourne Institute gauge rose 0.5% in October; Cotality's −1.2% October index was confirmed (ABC; single source).
The Nikkei fell 0.33% to 63,081.86 and the TOPIX 0.88% to 3,930.28, its lowest since July, with Kioxia −15% on its outlook offset by Tokyo Electron and Advantest (BigGo, Armenpress, AP; corroborated; the Nikkei's own archive served stale pages). Tokyo is closed today. China rallied on support measures: the PBoC and the securities regulator met financial institutions, the PBoC put ≈CNY100bn into its securities swap facility and a state bank reportedly planned up to CNY200bn of loans to "national team" funds (AP, TE; the loan figure single source). Shanghai rose 1.08% to 3,638.03, the CSI 300 0.79% to 4,016.92 (TE; single source), the Hang Seng 0.42% to 23,393.32 and the Hang Seng Tech 2.25% (Xiaomi +6.1%, CATL ≈+6%). The RatingDog manufacturing PMI printed 52.0 against 51.6 expected (Newsquawk; single source), well above Saturday's official 49.3. The KOSPI rebounded 2.24% to 5,859.08 with institutions buying ₩1.23tn and SK hynix +3.8% (JoongAng; verified by arithmetic). The TAIEX fell 0.65% to 44,920.14 (ad-hoc-news, BigGo; corroborated). India's Sensex rose 1.66% to 75,692.78 and the Nifty 1.68% to 23,440.80 on Reliance +12% (Business Today; corroborated). The NZX 50 fell ≈0.7% to 13,698.63 (single source).
Europe, Monday 2 November
Lower oil lifted cyclicals and hit energy. The DAX rose 0.63% to 25,975.30, the CAC 40 0.98% to ≈8,047, the FTSE MIB 0.90% to 49,948.88, the IBEX ≈1.6% to ≈18,925 and the FTSE 100 0.35% to 10,766.94; the SMI slipped 0.07% (TE country pages, reconciled to Friday's levels; CFD-based). The Stoxx 600 close was not obtained. Travel (TUI +5.5%, Lufthansa +3.8%), banks and miners led; BP −4.6%, Shell −3%, TotalEnergies −2.6% and Rheinmetall −3.3% lagged. Final manufacturing PMIs: euro area 52.7 (flash 52.4) with input costs rising "sharply", Germany 54.2, France 49.5, Italy 49.4 (50.2 expected), Spain 52.2, UK 52.8 (Newsquawk; verified as reported). Sovereigns rallied with crude: on TE's levels the Bund closed ≈3.29%, the OAT ≈4.90%, the BTP ≈4.41% and the gilt 10-year ≈5.20%, its lowest since 22 September (TE; levels single source, see §13 on TE's inverted change column). ECB's Kazimir said markets may underestimate the tightening needed (Newsquawk). Fitch moved France's outlook to negative and affirmed A+ late on Friday, an unscheduled action (Newsquawk; single source).
United States, Monday 2 November
A strong open faded into a split close. The S&P 500 fell 38.67 (−0.51%) to 7,541.40, the Nasdaq Composite 272.68 (−1.07%) to 25,164.32 and the Russell 2000 0.21% to 2,805.88, while the Dow rose 213.67 (+0.41%) to 51,983.98 (Yahoo post-close page and TradingKey agree; CNBC's 16:02–16:05 ET figures via StockTitan match; corroborated — the AP tabulation is published but did not load). The VIX rose 8.9% to 21.15. QQQ closed −1.36% at $681.09 (StockTitan), which puts the Nasdaq-100 at ≈27,999 (derived from Friday's corroborated 28,384.85). At 11:31 ET the S&P had been +0.64% and the Nasdaq +0.76% (Motley Fool), so the session gave back ≈1.1–1.8% from its high. The fade was AI financing: Oracle −6% after launching a $20bn raise ($10bn equity, $10bn debt), Marvell ≈−9% and Lumentum ≈−15% on Marvell's agreed purchase of Lumentum at a reported $115bn enterprise value, Intel ≈−5% after Friday's −28.6%, Micron ≈−5%; Apple slipped ≈2% into its results (TheStreet, StockTitan intraday; corroborated). Amazon (+4%), consumer discretionary (≈+3%), materials, airlines (+4–5%) and industrials led; energy lagged with oil (Occidental −4.7%, Exxon −3.1%). Alphabet priced a €6bn bond and Microsoft a $25bn deal. Apple and Palantir reported after the close; their numbers were not available at filing.
Data and rates. ISM manufacturing printed 55.5 (consensus 54.7, prior 54.5), production 59.0, new orders 55.5, prices 75.2 (from 77.9), employment 52.4 (ISM; verified). Treasuries rallied at the long end with oil: the 10-year ≈4.89% (−4 to −5bp) and 30-year ≈5.25% (≈−6bp), the 2-year ≈4.58% (≈−1bp) (Yahoo, Investing, Rallies.ai vendor quotes; corroborated; the official par row posts tomorrow). December hike pricing held at ≈73% on Kalshi/Polymarket (defirate, 14:09 ET) and ≈76% on CME (secondary). Treasury published its quarterly borrowing estimates (press release sb0675) but the page did not load; the August estimate for October–December was $628bn with an $850bn end-December cash balance. Gold rose to $3,944.80 (+1.8%; Kitco 16:09 ET, verified) and silver ≈3.4%. NYMEX WTI December settled $96.46 (−$7.66, −7.4%) (Dow Jones via MarketScreener; verified, one source); Brent January's settle was not obtained, with Dow Jones at $105.01 (−$8.42) at 14:40 ET and CNBC at $104.77 (−7.6%) near the close.
Geopolitics overnight
Iran. Iranian negotiators left Doha on 1 November with a draft agreement under review and a follow-up meeting possible (Newsquawk). Araghchi's plan would have the US act on day one and Hormuz reopen on day two, against conditions that include recognising the Iran–Oman shipping lane, lifting post-Islamabad sanctions, cutting the US military presence, restoring oil waivers and releasing frozen funds including ≈$6bn in Qatar (MEE, ANI; corroborated; sources differ on whether the earlier draft ran five or seven days). The US has not accepted it; Iran's Foreign Ministry says the US naval blockade must end before Hormuz reopens. Vance sent a letter via Qatar to Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, proposing a framework for direct talks; IRNA reported the Supreme Leader authorised negotiations. Axios reported Netanyahu pressed Trump in a "tough" Saturday call to resume strikes immediately after the midterms, and that Trump favours diplomacy and is "not in much of a hurry" (Axios via Express Tribune; corroborated). WSJ had reported on 30 October that Adm. Cooper briefed Trump on options for after the vote. UKMTO logged another projectile incident on 1 November; Windward published no fresh transit count after its ≈24-in-48-hours figure to 1 November. Russia–Ukraine. The Kremlin said current realities rule out resuming gas transit to Europe via Ukraine, responding to a WSJ report on US-backed proposals; three-way talks are pencilled in for after 10 November (Newsquawk, ITV). Crypto. Binance's net outflows reached ≈$4.7bn by Monday morning London time after the $6.3bn hack, under 4% of on-exchange assets, with ≈95% of losses covered and nearly half the stolen funds frozen (Bloomberg via Yahoo; verified as reported).
Market dashboard
Week to date: change since Friday 30 October
| Equities | Close | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% | −0.51% | Corroborated (Yahoo post-close, TradingKey, CNBC relay); AP tab published, not loaded. Faded from +0.64% at 11:31 ET |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,983.98 · 25,164.32 | +0.41% · −1.07% | +0.41% · −1.07% | Corroborated (same sources). Rotation out of AI hardware into cyclicals |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | 2,805.88 · ≈27,999 | −0.21% · ≈−1.36% | −0.21% · ≈−1.36% | Russell corroborated. NDX derived from QQQ −1.36% ($681.09) on Friday's 28,384.85; FRED stops at 29 Oct |
| VIX | 21.15 | +8.9% | +8.9% | Yahoo post-close (single source); first close above 21 in this run of editions. Curve last seen in contango (0.935, 30 Oct) |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | — · 25,975.30 | — · +0.63% | — · +0.63% | Stoxx close not obtained (Investing undated, TE stale). DAX TE (reconciles to Friday's 25,812.42) |
| FTSE 100 · CAC 40 | 10,766.94 · ≈8,047 | +0.35% · +0.98% | +0.35% · +0.98% | TE (CFD-based); a delayed HL ticker agrees within 0.06% |
| FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI | 49,948.88 · ≈18,925 · 14,799.80 | +0.90% · +1.63% · −0.07% | same | TE; IBEX and MIB pages internally inconsistent by ≈0.1–0.2% |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 63,081.86 · 3,930.28 | −0.33% · −0.88% | −0.33% · — | Corroborated (BigGo, Armenpress, AP). TOPIX lowest since July. Tokyo closed today |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,638.03 · 4,016.92 | +1.08% · +0.79% | +1.08% · +0.79% | Shanghai corroborated (ad-hoc-news, AP, TE); CSI 300 TE only. Support measures from the PBoC and CSRC |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 23,393.32 · 3,839.41 | +0.42% · +2.25% | +0.42% | HSI corroborated (ad-hoc-news, AP); HS Tech single source |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,859.08 · 44,920.14 | +2.24% · −0.65% | +2.24% · −0.65% | KOSPI verified (JoongAng; 5,730.74 + 128.34). TAIEX corroborated (ad-hoc-news, BigGo) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 75,692.78 · 23,440.80 | +1.66% · +1.68% | same | Business Today and Business Standard agree (corroborated). Reliance +12% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,856.50 | −0.58% | −0.58% | Corroborated by five sources; ties to 8,908.10 − 51.60. V006 count resets to 0 of 2. All Ords 8,977.2. SPI Dec settle 8,866 (−52; ASX, verified) |
| NZX 50 | ≈13,698.63 | ≈−0.7% | ≈−0.7% | Reuters via Business Recorder (single source) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 2y · 10y · 30y (vendor) | ≈4.58 · ≈4.89 · ≈5.25% | ≈−1 · ≈−5 · ≈−6bp | vendor only | Yahoo, Investing, Rallies.ai (corroborated within 1–2bp). Official par: last row 30 Oct (4.56 · 4.94 · 5.31); vendor and par not mixed |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.20 · ≈5.69% | ≈−9 · ≈−2bp | same | TE levels; 10y lowest since 22 Sep. 1d derived against Friday's ≈5.29 / ≈5.72 (TE's own change column printed the wrong sign, §13) |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | ≈3.29 · ≈4.90 · ≈4.41% | ≈−3 · ≈−7 · ≈−8bp | same | TE levels (single source); changes derived against Friday's TE levels |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 159.0bp (30 Oct) | — | — | No 2 Nov print yet (verified absence). TE legs give ≈161bp on a different benchmark basis, ≈4bp tighter on the day (derived). V025 mark unchanged |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.77 · ≈3.87% | ≈0 · ≈+3bp | same | TE. Japan closed today |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | ≈4.95 · ≈4.86 · ≈5.15% | +3 · +2 · +2bp | same | TE (single source; changes recomputed against Friday). YT Dec 95.175 (≈4.825%) and XT Dec 94.860 (≈5.14%) both −1.5–2bp in price (ASX; verified) |
| Canada 10y | ≈3.75% | ≈−5bp | ≈−5bp | TE |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS | 89 · 326 · 1,325bp (29 Oct) | — | — | Verified (FRED); 30 Oct and 2 Nov observations not yet posted (verified absence). V017 cannot be re-marked |
| FX | Mon | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈101.66 | ≈−0.22% | ≈−0.22% | TE, NY afternoon (no timestamp; single source). Yahoo ticker 101.55 at ≈14:08 ET |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1205 · ≈1.3419 | ≈+0.42% · ≈+0.20% | same | TE (single source) |
| USD/JPY | ≈157.47 | ≈−0.06% | ≈−0.06% | Investing.com 15:10 ET. Its own "previous close" 156.84 conflicts with Friday's ≈157.56 and TE's 157.88 (§13) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7023 (RBA) · ≈0.7019 (NY) | −0.24% (RBA) | −0.24% (RBA) | RBA 4pm verified. NY Investing 15:11 ET, range 0.7013–0.7040, TE 0.7017 (corroborated). Bases never blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2505 (RBA) · ≈0.5629 | +0.20% (RBA) | +0.20% (RBA) | RBA 4pm verified. NY cross ≈1.247 (derived). V023: 105 pips above the stop, 95 below the profit line |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.3973 · ≈0.8183 | ≈0.0% · ≈−0.8% | same | TE (unverified; the CHF move looks large against Friday's ≈0.8250 and is single source) |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6464 · 6.7146 | ≈−0.09% | ≈−0.09% | Spot TE; 2 Nov fix 6.7146 against a 6.6625 estimate (Newsquawk; single source) — still ≈520 pips weak of the model |
| USD/MXN · USD/INR · USD/KRW | ≈18.55 · ≈94.80 · ≈1,344 | ≈−1.3 · ≈−0.1 · ≈+0.8% | same | TE (unverified). KRW weaker despite the KOSPI rally (JoongAng 1,343.8) |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | WTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent JANUARY (front) | ≈$104.8 | ≈−7.6% | ≈−7.6% | Settle not obtained. CNBC $104.77 near the close (via StockTitan); Dow Jones $105.01 at 14:40 ET; TE $104.6–104.9. Range ≈$104.6–112.4 |
| WTI DECEMBER | $96.46 | −7.36% | −7.36% | Settle −$7.66 (Dow Jones via MarketScreener, 14:40 ET; verified, one source; Buckhead $96.24 intraday). First close below $100 since the October rally |
| Gold (spot) · silver | $3,944.80 · ≈$50.65 | +1.82% · ≈+3.4% | same | Verified (Kitco bid, 16:09 ET; prior $3,874.40). Silver Kitco 13:38 ET (intraday). Platinum conflicted, not shown |
| Henry Hub · TTF | ≈$2.90 · ≈€93.15 | ≈0% · ≈−10.4% | same | TE board intraday (Buckhead $2.86); TTF back below €100 on the Iran headlines (level only; change derived) |
| Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX | $14,449 · $14,250 (30 Oct) · ≈$6.55/lb | — · — · ≈+1.4% | — | Westmetall 2 Nov row not posted (verified absence). COMEX TE single source; ABC had LME ≈$14,130 −1.5% intraday Sydney |
| Iron ore 62% · aluminium | $90.71 (30 Oct) · ≈$3,093 | — · ≈+1.1% | — | Iron ore stale at TE; ABC $90.80 (Fri). Aluminium TE single source |
| Lithium carb. · uranium | CNY93,500 · $92.55 (30 Oct) | ≈−0.1% · — | — | TE |
| Bitcoin | ≈$76,867 | ≈+1.3% (24h) | ≈−1.4% | CoinGecko ≈19:20 UTC Mon (no page timestamp; single source; CoinGecko's own text conflicts on total cap). WTD against No. 040's ≈$77,980 |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,247 · $91.80 · $1.24 · $697 | +0.5 · +2.6 · +0.6 · +1.8% (24h) | −1.0 · −3.1 · −0.8 · −2.0% | CoinGecko. Total cap ≈$2.68tn; BTC dominance 57.6% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC −$643.2m (30 Oct) | ETH −$155.7m | Mon not published | Farside via HedgeCo and TFTC (corroborated). Monday's row not available — a gap, not a zero |
Conventions: 1d is Monday 2 November; WTD is the change since Friday 30 October's close from No. 040's verified or corroborated priors, so for Asia, Europe and the US it equals 1d. US cash closes are as labelled in the row (§13 states which tabulation was available at filing). Treasury levels are vendor until the official par row posts (≈08:00 AEDT tomorrow); vendor and par are never mixed in a change. FX is New York unless marked RBA 4pm. Trading Economics' change columns are not used anywhere in this table: on Monday they printed inverted signs for European and US yields (§13). "—" means not obtained.
What is driving markets
1. AI capex: from Alphabet's cash burn to a sector correction
Monday showed the financing side of the theme in one session. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum at a reported $115bn enterprise value and both stocks fell (Lumentum −14% to −18%, Marvell −9% to −12% intraday; Bloomberg via Swissinfo, TheStreet; deal terms single source); Oracle fell 6–8% after launching a $20bn raise split evenly between equity and debt to fund AI infrastructure; Alphabet priced a €6bn euro bond and Microsoft a $25bn deal (Yahoo live blog; corroborated as to the deals). Intel fell another 5–7% after Friday's −28.6%, and Micron ≈−5%. Amazon was the counter-move, +3.5–4% on a reassessment of cloud growth. The Nasdaq Composite closed −1.07% and the Nasdaq-100 ≈−1.36% (derived) while the Dow rose 0.41%, after the S&P had been up 0.64% at 11:31 ET. Morgan Stanley's Wilson (26 Oct) still sees semis a further 10–15% lower into mid-November before the correction ends, with S&P downside to 7,100–7,200 and 8,000 at year-end (investingLive; corroborated). BofA's economists warned on 2 November that "a sustained correction in the AI trade is a major risk to the global economy", with Europe most exposed (Finvaulta summary; corroborated).
2. Washington's week: hawkish Fed speakers, a bull-steepening curve, the refunding and the midterms
October's ISM manufacturing printed 55.5 against 54.7 expected and 54.5 in September, with production 59.0 and new orders 55.5; prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9 and employment to 52.4 (ISM via PR Newswire; verified). A firm activity print with softer prices did not move the December pricing: Kalshi and Polymarket held a 25bp hike at ≈73% (defirate, 14:09 ET; thin volume, $24k and $53k over 24 hours) and CME FedWatch ≈76% (Yahoo live blog; secondary). Treasuries rallied at the long end on oil: the vendor 10-year traded ≈4.88% (−5bp) and the 30-year ≈5.25% (−6bp), with the 2-year ≈4.58–4.59% (≈−1bp) (Rallies.ai, Investing, Yahoo tickers; corroborated). Treasury published its quarterly borrowing estimates at 15:00 ET (press release sb0675), but the page did not load at filing; the figures are a first target for tomorrow. Today's midterms are priced decisively: Democratic House control ≈94–95%, Democratic control of both chambers ≈73% (Kalshi 72.5% for a sweep), a Republican sweep ≈5–6% (defirate, 10:07–14:00 ET; verified as relayed). The House call could take until mid-to-late November because California counts mail ballots received up to seven days late. The refunding statement lands at 00:30 AEDT Thursday and payrolls (consensus +55–65k, prior +29k) at 00:30 AEDT Saturday.
3. Oil: Doha puts a reopening on the table and Brent loses 8%
NYMEX WTI December settled $96.46, −$7.66 (−7.4%) (Dow Jones; verified, one source), its first close below $100 since the October rally; Brent January traded ≈$104.8 near the close (CNBC; −7.6%), after a $104.6–112.4 range (TE). The January settle was not obtained. The move was front-loaded along the curve: Dec-27 fell $2.41, Dec-28 $0.85 and Dec-29 $0.42 at ≈14:42 UTC (FinanceFeeds; single source), which is the shape of a lower expected duration of the disruption rather than a change in the long-run price. The catalyst was a reopening plan with a timetable: Araghchi said Qatar proposed cutting implementation to two days, the US acting on day one and shipping resuming on day two, against conditions the US has not accepted (MEE, ANI, AP via Yahoo; corroborated). IRNA reported the Supreme Leader authorised the talks. Against that, the attacks have not stopped: four tankers were struck by mines or limpet charges on 29–30 October and UKMTO logged a projectile on 1 November; and Axios reports Netanyahu urging strikes immediately after the vote. OPEC+ holds targets to December and meets as a full group on 29 November; ADNOC's chief says ≈1bn barrels have been drawn from stocks since the disruption began (InvestingNews; single source). TTF fell ≈10% to ≈€93.
4. France and the ECB: the spread re-widens and TPI re-enters the conversation
Fitch moved France's outlook to negative and affirmed A+ late on Friday 30 October in an unscheduled action, citing debt near 120% of GDP (Newsquawk; single source). OATs still outperformed on Monday in a broad rally: on TE's legs the OAT fell ≈7bp to ≈4.90% and the Bund ≈3bp to ≈3.29%, a spread of ≈161bp on TE's benchmark basis (derived; the dedicated series' 2 November row has not posted and its last print is 159.0bp on 30 October). The ECB leant hawkish again: Kazimir said markets may underestimate the tightening needed. The euro-area flash HICP lands Wednesday at 21:00 AEDT (consensus 3.9%, prior 3.8%; France printed 3.8% and Italy 5.6% on Friday). The Senate takes the government's original social-security bill on 9 November after the Assemblée rejected its revenue section 115–1; use of Article 49.3 or ordinances is widely expected (Sud Radio/AFP; verified). The 17 November Assemblée vote carried in recent editions was not re-confirmed this run.
5. Australia: a priced hike, a falling housing market, and the ASX on the line
The RBA decides at 14:30 AEDT today with the Statement on Monetary Policy. Monday's ASX 30-day futures settles (November 95.220, December 95.165; ASX, verified) imply a post-meeting rate of 4.80%, or ≈80% of a 25bp hike, on the convention that a move takes effect on 4 November (our derivation: three days at 4.60% and 27 at the new rate). January (4.85%) has the hike fully priced by year-end and February (4.905%) carries ≈22% of a further move. Quoted reads cluster around it: Newsquawk ≈81%, StockWire X ≈80%, TE 83% (30 Oct). All four majors call 4.85%; CBA says a rate above 5% "can't be ruled out", Westpac flags rising February risk, ANZ calls 4.85% the peak (StockWire X, investingLive; corroborated). The equity market went into the meeting soft: the ASX 200 fell 0.58% to 8,856.50, closing 43.5 points below V006's 8,900 line and resetting that view's two-close count.
Central bank watch
Pricing for the 9 December FOMC, by source
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp); statement verified | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP | Dec +25bp ≈73% Kalshi/Polymarket (14:09 ET 2 Nov); ≈76% CME (secondary). BofA economists project hikes in Dec and Mar. Investing monitor stale (27 Oct) | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep (fourth hike of 2026) | TODAY 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30 | ≈80% for 4.85% (derived from ASX Nov IB 95.220, 2 Nov settle); hike fully priced by Jan; Feb ≈22% of another. Quoted 79–83%. All big four call +25bp | Hike priced |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | Held 29 Oct | Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Reuters sources: December hike then pause (investingLive tag; corroborated). Kazimir 2 Nov: markets may underestimate tightening needed. Lagarde's exit 7 Feb 2027 (carried) | Hawkish hold |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%) | Fri 18 Dec | December live (Ueda, secondary). Tokyo closed today. Ueda speaks Fri 6 Nov | Hawkish hold |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 16 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | +25bp to 4.00% consensus (ForexFundamentals, investingLive; corroborated); vote 7–2 (TE; unverified parse). Gilt 10y ≈5.20%, lowest since 22 Sep | Hike priced |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 | Wed 9 Dec 12:00 + MPS | Westpac forecasts 3.00% in Dec, 4% peak Sep 2027 (Westpac IQ). Q3 labour data Wed 08:45 | Tightening bias, delayed |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct | Thu 10 Dec 01:45 | Not refreshed (carried ≈45% for Dec, 28 Oct). Federal budget Thu 5 Nov | Hiking, careful |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Riks held Sep · Norges +25bp Sep (rate conflict, §13) | Riks Wed 4 Nov 19:30 · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Riksbank consensus +25bp to 2.00% (corroborated); Norges hold, no MPR (Newsquawk) | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct | LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00 | 2 Nov fix 6.7146 vs 6.6625 estimate (single source). CNY100bn into the securities swap facility; FX-rule easing proposed | Supporting equities, leaning against CNY |
| Emerging markets | |||||
| Brazil (BCB) | 13.75% | −25bp 16 Sep | Copom Thu 5 Nov ≈08:30 | Conflict persists: Focus (13 Oct, stale) −25bp to 13.50% vs TE/calendar hold | Watch |
| Mexico (Banxico) · Poland (NBP) | 6.50% · 3.75% | Banxico held | NBP this week (date unconfirmed) · Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 | Hold expected for both | Hold |
| Malaysia (BNM) · Korea (BoK) · India (RBI) | 2.75% · 3.00% · 5.50% | BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct | BNM Nov (date unconfirmed) · BoK 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec | BNM hold (The Star). Korea CPI today 10:00 | Mixed |
RBA today: what the SMP has to say. The case for 4.85% is the Q3 CPI: trimmed mean 1.0% q/q and 3.7% y/y against an August forecast of ≈0.8% q/q, headline 1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y, with unemployment 4.7% (ABS via desks; corroborated). The case for caution is housing (−1.2% in October, a seventh straight fall; AMP now sees ≈15% peak-to-trough) and the bank economists' downgrades (NAB 1.0% GDP in 2027, CBA ≈1%). Watch three things: whether trimmed mean returns to 2.5% within the forecast horizon on the market path, whether the statement keeps "further tightening" language, and how Bullock frames February. The futures curve already holds ≈22% for February, so a neutral-sounding hike is a modest rally at the front end.
Fed. ISM manufacturing at 55.5 with prices easing to 75.2 did not shift December pricing (≈73–76%). Goolsbee moderated a Q&A on Monday with no policy remarks retrieved; Hammack and Barkin speak Thursday, then Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman on Friday. Apollo's Sløk said ≈275bp of hikes may be needed to return inflation to 2% (Yahoo live blog; single source), an outlier that frames the hawkish tail.
BoE Thursday. The 28 October Budget kept the fiscal rules with headroom reported at ≈£15bn (TE; No. 040 carried £14.5bn from uktaxdrag), and gilts have rallied ≈9bp since Friday. A hike to 4.00% is the consensus; the MPR and the vote split decide whether February is priced further.
Regional briefs
United States
Firm ISM, a stalled rebound and an election. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq 1.07% while the Dow rose 0.41% (corroborated): a rotation out of AI hardware and into consumer, materials and airlines as oil fell 7–8%. ISM manufacturing 55.5 (production 59.0, new orders 55.5, inventories 51.4, prices 75.2, employment 52.4; verified); S&P Global's final manufacturing PMI 54.9 against a 56.0 flash (single source); September construction spending −1.9% (single source). FactSet (30 Oct): 60% of the S&P has reported Q3, 82% beat on EPS but the aggregate surprise is 1.9%, the smallest since Q4 2022; blended growth +30.2%; forward P/E 18.7 (verified). Today: polls, JOLTS (consensus 7.13m) and factory orders at 02:00 AEDT Wednesday, AMD, Arista and Super Micro after the close. Government funding runs to 11 December; the debt limit binds in 2027 (CRFB; verified).
Euro area
Rally on oil, PMIs confirm a manufacturing upswing with cost pressure. The final manufacturing PMI was 52.7 (flash 52.4) with input-cost inflation rising "sharply"; Germany 54.2, Spain 52.2 (50.8 expected), France 49.5 and Italy 49.4 (50.2 expected) (Newsquawk). Equities rose 0.6–1.6% outside Switzerland; energy names lost 2.5–4.6%. The flash HICP on Wednesday (21:00 AEDT; consensus 3.9%, core 2.5%) is the input to December. ECB speakers this week: Lane (Wednesday and Friday), Cipollone, Schnabel and Lagarde (Thursday). In Italy, Intesa Sanpaolo is expected to bid for MPS by month-end (TE; single source). EUR/USD ≈1.1205.
United Kingdom
Gilts at a six-week low in yield into the BoE. The 10-year fell ≈9bp to ≈5.20%, helped by lower oil and press reports of a Burnham/Healey ten-year plan with welfare savings (Newsquawk; single source). The final manufacturing PMI was 52.8 with input prices rising at one of the fastest rates in four years. Reports that the BoE may loosen mortgage-lending limits lifted housebuilders (TE). FTSE 100 +0.35% to 10,766.94, held back by BP (−4.6%) and Shell (−3%). BoE Thursday at 23:00 AEDT: a hike to 4.00% is the consensus.
Japan
Closed today; the chip sell-off broadened into memory. The Nikkei fell 0.33% to 63,081.86 and the TOPIX 0.88% to 3,930.28, its lowest since July, with Kioxia −15% on its outlook while Tokyo Electron and Advantest added ≈400 Nikkei points between them (corroborated). The final manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (Newsquawk). JGB 10-year ≈2.77%, flat. USD/JPY ≈157.5. No new fiscal news from the Takaichi government was found. BoJ September minutes Thursday; Ueda speaks Friday; the next decision is 18 December.
China & Hong Kong
Beijing steps in for equities. After Saturday's 49.3 official PMI, regulators met financial institutions on market support, the PBoC added ≈CNY100bn to its securities swap facility and proposed easing FX rules, and a state bank reportedly plans up to CNY200bn of loans to state funds (AP, Newsquawk, TE; the last single source). Shanghai +1.08%, CSI 300 +0.79%, Hang Seng +0.42%, HS Tech +2.25%. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI held at 52.0 (51.6 expected). The NPC Standing Committee (to 6 November) has produced no fiscal news. The fix was 6.7146 against a 6.6625 estimate (single source), so the PBoC is still leaning against yuan strength while supporting stocks. CPI Monday 9 November (12:30 AEDT), trade Tuesday 10 November.
Emerging markets and the Middle East
Korea and India rebound; the Gulf waits on Washington. The KOSPI recovered 2.24% to 5,859.08 on institutional buying of ₩1.23tn (JoongAng; verified) even as the won weakened to ≈1,344; Korea CPI lands at 10:00 AEDT today. India's Sensex rose 1.66%, a third straight gain, on Reliance's best day since 2020 (+12%). Taiwan's TAIEX fell 0.65% on AI concerns. Iran: a Doha draft agreement is under review, with a two-day Hormuz reopening plan tied to conditions the US has not accepted (§02); Russia's Foreign Ministry voiced "serious concern" about signals of new US military action. Russia–Ukraine: three-way talks are expected after 10 November; no ceasefire is in force. South Africa holds municipal elections Wednesday.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA at 14:30
The cash rate is 4.60%; the Board announces at 14:30 AEDT with the SMP and Bullock speaks at 15:30. Monday's ASX 30-day interbank settles were 95.400 (October, ≡4.60%), 95.220 (November), 95.165 (December), 95.150 (January) and 95.095 (February) (ASX end-of-day; verified). With a move effective 4 November, the November contract implies a post-meeting rate of 4.800%, ≈80% of a 25bp hike (derived; Friday's settle gave ≈78%). Newsquawk's preview has ≈81%/19%; a Reuters poll has 4.85%, the highest cash rate since December 2008 (Business Recorder; corroborated). This would be the fifth hike of 2026. All four majors call +25bp: NAB then pauses with further tightening not ruled out, CBA holds in December and February but says above 5% "can't be ruled out", Westpac flags rising February risk, ANZ sees 4.85% as the peak.
Markets into the decision
Equities. The ASX 200 fell 0.58% to 8,856.50 (corroborated), with resources down for a third session (−1.5%), banks ≈−0.6% and staples −1.4%; only 3 of 11 sectors rose. Westpac (+1.0%) was the lone major bank up after its FY26 result; Northern Star −4.8% led the gold miners lower despite gold's rebound overnight. The SPI December contract settled 8,866 (−52), ≈9.5 points over cash (ASX; verified). With Wall Street mixed (S&P −0.51%, Dow +0.41%), oil −7–8% and gold +1.8% since the SPI settle, our inference is a soft open led by energy, with gold miners supported; no overnight SPI indication was obtained. Rates. ACGB 2-year ≈4.95%, 3-year ≈4.86%, 10-year ≈5.15% (TE; single source), each +2–3bp; 3-year futures imply ≈4.825% (derived). Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.7023 and AUD/NZD 1.2505 (verified); ≈0.7019 in late New York (corroborated). TFF leveraged funds are net long 48,414 AUD contracts and asset managers net short 125,237 (CFTC, 27 Oct; derived from the raw file).
Data, housing and the China link
September dwelling approvals rose 5.1% m/m on a 16.6% jump in apartments while houses fell 5.3% to 10,432; the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.5% in October after 0.3%; Cotality's October home value index fell 1.2%, a seventh straight fall, and AMP now expects a ≈15% peak-to-trough decline (ABC live blog; single source for each). ANZ-Indeed job ads for October were not found. Household spending (Wednesday 11:30) and the September trade balance (Thursday 11:30, consensus A$1.2bn) follow. China link: iron ore sat at $90.71–90.80/t on Friday (TE, ABC; Monday print not obtained); Beijing's equity-support measures did not extend to property or infrastructure, which is what iron ore needs. Gold's ≈2% rebound overnight should help the miners that led Monday's fall.
New Zealand
The RBNZ held at 2.75% by 4–3 on 28 October; Westpac forecasts 3.00% in December and a 4% peak by September 2027 (Westpac IQ). The Q3 labour market lands Wednesday 08:45 AEDT: Westpac expects unemployment to ease to 5.5% from 5.6% (TE consensus 5.5%). The NZX 50 fell ≈0.7% to 13,698.63 (single source). NZD/USD ≈0.5629. A general election appears on Newsquawk's calendar for this week (date unverified; possibly Saturday 7 November).
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep | Today 14:30 + SMP · ≈80% for 4.85% (derived) |
| CPI Q3 q/q · trimmed mean q/q · y/y | 1.3% · 1.0% · 3.7% | Headline 3.9% y/y | Oct monthly: late November |
| Unemployment (Sep) | 4.7% | Oct: Thu 19 Nov 11:30 | |
| Building approvals (Sep) | +5.1% m/m | Aug −6.1% · apartments +16.6%, houses −5.3% | Released 2 Nov (ABC; single source) |
| Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (Oct) | +0.5% m/m | Sep +0.3% | Released 2 Nov (single source) |
| Cotality HVI (Oct) | −1.2% m/m | 7th straight fall | Nov: 1 Dec |
| Household spending (Sep) | — | 0.0% m/m | Wed 4 Nov 11:30 |
| Trade balance (Sep) | — | A$0.495bn · cons A$1.2bn | Thu 5 Nov 11:30 |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | ≈4.95 · ≈4.86 · ≈5.15% | +3 · +2 · +2bp Mon | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.7023 · 1.2505 | 0.7040 · 1.2480 (30 Oct) | Today 16:00, after the decision |
| NZ OCR · NZ unemployment | 2.75% · 5.6% (Q2) | Held 4–3, 28 Oct | NZ Q3 labour Wed 4 Nov 08:45 (cons 5.5%) · RBNZ 9 Dec |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V006: the ASX 200 closed 8,856.50 on Monday, below the 8,900 line, so the pre-committed count resets to 0 of 2; Friday's 8,908.10 was one close and did not fire. The underweight is +1.66% in favour of the 9,005.9 entry. V023: the RBA table printed 1.2505 (verified), +1.54% on the ≈1.2315 entry, 105 pips above the stop and 95 below the profit line; today's 4pm print comes after the decision. V031: QQQ closed −1.36% on Monday, which puts the Nasdaq-100 at ≈27,999 (derived; FRED not yet posted for 30 Oct or 2 Nov), ≈4.1% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry and ≈10.5% below the 30,932 close line. Per the ledger convention, the derived mark is replaced when FRED posts. V024: Brent January traded ≈$104.8 near the close (−7.6%; settle not obtained), ≈$20 above the $81.51–84.51 band; WTI December settled $96.46. V017: FRED has not posted 30 October or 2 November (verified absence), so the mark stays at HY 326bp, IG 89bp, CCC 1,325bp (29 Oct). V025: no new dedicated row; mark 159.0bp (30 Oct). TE's legs suggest a ≈4bp tightening on Monday on a different basis, which does not mark the view.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 159.0bp (30 Oct, verified); 2 Nov row not posted. Fitch outlook to negative (A+ affirmed, 30 Oct). Senate takes the social-security bill 9 Nov; euro-area HICP Wed; OAT auctions Thu | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (19bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED HY 326bp, IG 89bp, CCC 1,325bp (29 Oct, verified); no newer rows. Monday's hyperscaler issuance (Alphabet €6bn, Microsoft $25bn, Oracle $10bn debt) is the supply channel the view was written for | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (275bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (21bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | 8,856.50 against 9,005.9: +1.66% in favour. Count reset to 0 of 2 on Monday's close. RBA hike ≈80% priced; resources down three sessions; housing −1.2% m/m | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (0 of 2; 43.5 points away; intraday prints do not count) |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | ≈27,999 on 2 Nov (derived from QQQ −1.36%): ≈4.1% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry. Oracle $20bn raise, Marvell–Lumentum, Intel −5% after −28.6%; hyperscalers issuing debt. AMD Tue, Qualcomm/Arm Wed | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (≈10.5% above the derived mark) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2505 on the RBA 4pm table, 2 Nov (verified), +1.54% against ≈1.2315. RBA ≈80% for today (derived), Feb ≈22% more; RBNZ Dec forecast by Westpac; NZ labour data Wed 08:45. NY cross ≈1.247 | PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (105 pips; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (95 pips) |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | January ≈$104.8 near the close, 2 Nov (−7.6%; settle not obtained). Doha draft and a two-day Hormuz reopening plan; conditions not accepted by the US; Netanyahu urging strikes after the vote (Axios) | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$20 below the near-close quote). Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Portfolio-level read. Monday took some of the stress premium out of energy and long-end rates and left it in AI financing, which is where the book is positioned (V031, V017). The two events inside the next 24 hours are binary for two views: the RBA for V023 and the midterm results for V031 and V017. We would not add gross before Wednesday's results, and no new view is opened: the one candidate, a Brent downside expression, would be opening on a headline the US has not accepted.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger. Scorecard: six open; 25 closed (3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch).
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 27 October (released 30 October; header re-confirmed with a cache-busted fetch). Nets are this desk's arithmetic from the raw file. Series named on every line; flow universes are never netted.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 27 October (unchanged since Monday's edition) | |||
| Six-contract Treasury total | −6,877,271 | 2y −1.36m · 5y −2.08m · 10y −2.23m | Re-derived from the raw file this run (matches). Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure; a yield fall squeezes it |
| JPY · AUD (TFF leveraged funds) | −14,630 · +48,414 | Asset managers +91,191 · −125,237 | ⚠ Legacy non-commercial yen is +101,591 — signs disagree across series; both real |
| Gold (COMEX, legacy non-commercial) | +186,451 | −13.4k on the week | Cut before Friday's 3.6% fall; silver NC +19,703 |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA weekly flows (week to Wed 28 Oct) | Equities +$56.2bn · bonds +$15.4bn · cash +$3.4bn | Crypto −$0.5bn · gold −$1.7bn | Mostly ETFs; China +$25.7bn; US 4th inflow week; Europe 3rd outflow week; tech +$5.3bn; HY +$1.8bn, first inflow in five weeks. Bull & Bear 7.1 (from 7.2) (Newsquawk; single secondary source) |
| ICI long-term funds (week to 21 Oct) | Equity +$13.89bn · bond −$0.17bn | Total +$12.32bn | (ICI; verified) |
| ICI money funds (week to 28 Oct) | $7,901.28bn | −$43.29bn | Government −$37.2bn; institutional −$33.7bn (ICI; verified) |
| Spot BTC · ETH ETFs | −$643.2m · −$155.7m (30 Oct) | Mon not published | Binance net outflows ≈$4.7bn after the hack (Bloomberg). CoinShares weekly not found |
| Surveys, volatility, breadth and valuation | |||
| BofA FMS (October; 2–8 Oct) | Most crowded: long semis, then short UST | Tail risk: disorderly yields, then AI bubble | Tech overweight 37%, highest since Aug 2020; 31% expected a sweep. November survey date not found |
| BofA strategy (Hartnett team) | "Tactically risk-off" to ≈mid-Nov | Three exit conditions | Sweep fully priced; French bond sell-off halts; hyperscaler spreads peak (200bp flagged) (StockWire X, 23 Oct; unverified secondary) |
| AAII (week to 28 Oct) | Bulls 37.8% · neutral 20.7% · bears 41.4% | Spread −3.6 | (AAII; verified). Next release Thu |
| Fear & Greed replica (30 Oct) | 17 — extreme fear | 11th straight session | All eight components lean fear; safe-haven 0, junk-bond demand 7 (thetrading.tools) |
| VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call | 0.935 (30 Oct) · 149.8 · 0.85 (29 Oct) | Contango day 144 | No capitulation: the curve has not inverted since a single day on 7 April. Spot VIX closed 21.15 on Monday (+8.9%), above the 29 Oct November and December futures settles (18.15, 18.39), which points to a flatter curve (derived; Monday futures not obtained). |
| % S&P above 200-day · Hindenburg | 61.6% · inactive (2 of 4) | New highs 138 · lows 281 (30 Oct) | McClellan +16.0; SPY below its 50-day (thetrading.tools, historyofmarket) |
| S&P moving averages (30 Oct, derived) | 50d ≈7,697 · 100d ≈7,615 · 200d ≈7,310 | Deviation-based | Derived from stock-marketdata's deviation rates; corrects No. 040's stale Investing 200-day of 7,717 (§13) |
| FactSet Earnings Insight (30 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +30.2% | CY26 +32.9% · CY27 +16.3% | Q2'27 growth estimate just +2.8%: the earnings cliff the market has started to discount (verified) |
| Year-end S&P targets | GS · MS · JPM 8,000 · Citi 8,100 · BofA 7,400 | Vintages May–Oct | Wilson: 7,100–7,200 first, "final stages" of the correction (26 Oct) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET / local | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 3 November — RBA · US midterms · Japan closed (Culture Day) · Melbourne Cup (Victoria only; ASX open) | ||||||
| Tue | 10:00 | Seoul 08:00 | Korea CPI (Oct) y/y | 2.9% | 2.9% | L |
| Tue | 14:30 · 15:30 | Mon 22:30 | RBA decision + Statement on Monetary Policy · Bullock press conference | 4.85% | 4.60% | H |
| Tue | 16:00 | — | RBA 4pm exchange rates (V023 mark, post-decision) | AUD/NZD 1.2505 | M | |
| Tue | European session | — | Swiss CPI (Oct) · UK and German bond supply | L | ||
| Wed | 02:00 | Tue 10:00 | US JOLTS (Sep) · factory orders (Sep) | 7.13m · +1.2% | 7.079m · +0.1% | M |
| Wed | ≈08:00 | Tue after close | AMD (EPS cons $1.68) · Arista · Super Micro · Booking | H | ||
| Wednesday 4 November — US results through the Sydney day | ||||||
| Wed | 08:45 | NZDT 10:45 | NZ Q3 labour market — unemployment | 5.5% | 5.6% | H |
| Wed | 10:00 → 17:00 | Tue 18:00 → Wed 01:00 | Midterm poll closings: 10:00 IN, KY · 11:00 GA, SC, VA, VT, NH · 11:30 NC, OH, WV · 12:00 PA, FL, MI, MN, WI, MO, IL · 13:00 AZ, CO, NM, NY, TX · 14:00 NV, ID, MT · 15:00 CA, OR, WA · 17:00 AK | D House ≈95% · D both ≈73% | H | |
| Wed | 11:30 · 12:45 | 00:30 · 01:45 UTC | AU household spending (Sep) m/m · China RatingDog services PMI | — · 51.5 | 0.0% · 51.6 | M |
| Wed | 19:30 | 08:30 UTC | Riksbank decision | 2.00% (+25bp) | 1.75% | M |
| Wed | 20:00 · 21:00 | 09:00 · 10:00 UTC | Euro-area final services PMI · Euro-area flash HICP (Oct) headline · core | 51.7 · 3.9% · 2.5% | — · 3.8% · 2.5% | H |
| Thu | 00:15 | Wed 08:15 | US ADP (Oct) | 65k | 90k | M |
| Thu | 00:30 | Wed 08:30 | Treasury quarterly refunding announcement · US trade balance (Sep) | — · −$108bn | — · −$105.6bn | H |
| Thu | 02:00 | Wed 10:00 | US ISM services (Oct) | 54.7–54.8 | 54.9 · prices 74.0 | H |
| Thu | ≈08:00 | Wed after close | Qualcomm · Arm · DoorDash (Uber, CVS, Novo pre-market Wed) | M | ||
| Thursday 5 November | ||||||
| Thu | 08:30 | Wed 16:30 | Brazil Copom (consensus conflicts: hold vs −25bp) | 13.75% | 13.75% | M |
| Thu | 11:30 | 00:30 UTC | AU trade balance (Sep) · BoJ September minutes | A$1.2bn | A$0.495bn | M |
| Thu | 18:00 · 20:00 | 07:00 · 09:00 UTC | German factory orders (Sep) · Norges Bank (no MPR) | +4.0% · hold | −10.6% · 4.50% | M |
| Thu | European session | — | French OAT auctions · Swedish CPIF flash · CNB · Rheinmetall, Deutsche Telekom · Canadian federal budget | M | ||
| Thu | 23:00 | 12:00 UTC | BoE decision + Monetary Policy Report | 4.00% (7–2) | 3.75% | H |
| Fri | 00:30 | Thu 08:30 | US initial claims · Q3 productivity / unit labour costs (prelim) | 195k · 2.5% / 0.6% | 194k · 1.4% / 1.2% | M |
| Fri | 06:00 | Thu 14:00 | Banxico decision · Fed's Hammack and Barkin (Thu) · Airbnb, Cloudflare after close | hold | 6.50% | M |
| Friday 6 November — US payrolls land Saturday morning Sydney | ||||||
| Fri | day | — | BoJ Ueda and BoE Pill speak · ECB Lane · Fed Logan, Williams, Musalem, Bowman | M | ||
| Sat 7 | 00:30 | Fri 08:30 | US nonfarm payrolls (Oct) · unemployment · AHE m/m · y/y · Canada jobs | +55–65k · 4.2% · 0.3% · 2.9% | +29k · 4.2% · 0.1% · 3.0% | H |
| Sat 7 | 02:00 | Fri 10:00 | UMich sentiment (Nov prelim) · NZ general election (date unverified) | M | ||
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 9 Nov – 18 Dec | — | — | China CPI Mon 9 12:30 · French Senate takes the social-security bill Mon 9 · China trade Tue 10 14:00 · Russia–Ukraine–US talks after 10 Nov · US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 (Tue 10 Nov 08:30 ET) · Veterans Day Wed 11 (bond closure not verified) · RBA minutes, FOMC minutes, AU wages and labour force week of 16 Nov · flash PMIs, Thanksgiving, S&P France review week of 23 Nov · OPEC+ full group Sun 29 Nov · RBA Tue 8 Dec (carried) · RBNZ Wed 9 Dec 12:00 · FOMC + SEP Thu 10 Dec 06:00 · US funding to Fri 11 Dec · BoE Thu 17 Dec 23:00 · ECB Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · BoJ Fri 18 Dec | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics (column mapping inferred), Newsquawk and ForexFundamentals; ForexFactory did not load. Poll-closing times from USPollingData and 270toWin (state-level closing times vary within some states). Changes since Monday's edition: ISM, Apple and Palantir have reported; the refunding estimates were due 07:00 AEDT today (§13 for status); Super Micro and Booking added to Tuesday's after-market slate.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AI-capex financing moves from equity into credit | Monday's Oracle, Alphabet and Microsoft deals; AMD Tue, Qualcomm/Arm Wed; FRED HY once posted | Semis a further 10–15% lower (MS Wilson); S&P to 7,100–7,200; HY wider than 340bp; Korea and Taiwan beta | V031; V017 | |
| 2 | Post-midterm Iran decision: strikes or a deal | Results Wed AEDT; Netanyahu pressing for strikes (Axios); Doha draft under review | Strike: Brent back through $113, TTF above €100, term premium. Deal: Brent toward $95, energy equities lower, inflation expectations lower | V024's residual call; energy vs. consumer pairs | |
| 3 | Democratic sweep reprices tax and regulation | Today; polls close from 10:00 AEDT Wed; House call could take weeks | D both ≈73% (Kalshi 72.5%, 2 Nov) | BofA: a bigger wave plus higher yields "not priced"; FMS had 31% expecting a sweep | Q4 index collars |
| 4 | RBA holds, or hikes with a dovish SMP | Today 14:30 | Hold ≈20% (derived, ASX) | ACGB 3-year rallies through 4.80%; AUD/NZD toward 1.2400; banks lower, REITs higher | V023 stop; V006 |
| 5 | Fed hikes 9 December after firm payrolls or CPI | ISM services Thu 02:00; payrolls Sat 00:30; CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 | ≈73% (Kalshi/Polymarket) · ≈76% (CME, secondary) | 2-year back above 4.65%; dollar firmer; gold lower | 2-year options |
| 6 | Disorderly long end at the refunding | Announcement Thu 00:30 AEDT | FMS: top tail risk | Term-premium spike against −6.88m contracts of leveraged-fund Treasury shorts; oil's rally in the long end reverses | Low duration; payer spreads |
| 7 | France: rating channel after Fitch's negative outlook | Senate 9 Nov; S&P review week of 23 Nov; OAT auctions Thu | OAT–Bund through 174.6bp | V025 (High) | |
| 8 | China support stops at equities | NPC Standing Committee to 6 Nov; CPI/trade 9–10 Nov | Iron ore below $90; ASX materials; AUD crosses | Short iron ore vs copper | |
| 9 | Crypto liquidity after the Binance hack | ≈$4.7bn net outflows; ETF outflow −$643m Fri | BTC below $74,000; crypto equities; alt-coin liquidity | No view open | |
| 10 | Yen squeeze toward the December BoJ | Legacy speculators +101.6k yen; Ueda Fri | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind | Short-dated USD/JPY puts | |
| 11 | Short-covering rally in an extreme-fear tape | Fear & Greed 17 for 11 sessions; a clean midterm result | Index squeeze against V031 and V006; thetrading.tools' base rate after extreme fear is ≈+2.1% over 21 sessions | Keep hedges as spreads, not outright shorts |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | 7,500 · ≈7,310 (200-day, derived) · 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson) | ≈7,615 (100-day) · 7,629 (Mon high, 11:31 ET) · ≈7,697 (50-day) | MAs derived from deviation rates, 30 Oct (§13 corrects No. 040) |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈27,999 (derived) | 27,500 · 27,000 | 28,384.85 (30 Oct) · 29,402.51 (29 Oct) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes) | MAs not obtained this run |
| UST 10y · 2y | ≈4.88% · ≈4.58% (vendor) | 4.85 · 4.50 | 4.94 (30 Oct par) · 5.05 (28 Oct par) · 4.67 (28 Oct) | Par row for 2 Nov posts ≈08:00 AEDT Wed |
| OAT–Bund | 159.0bp (30 Oct) | 153.4 (29 Oct) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | ≈4.86 · ≈5.15% | 4.80 (cash expectation) · 5.10 | 4.92 (28 Oct) · 5.26 | Our reading; a hold breaks 4.80 |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈101.66 · ≈1.1205 · ≈157.47 | 101.50 · 1.1158 (30 Oct) · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | Carried levels |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7023 · 1.2505 (RBA) | 0.6951 (CBA, carried) · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes) | 0.7053 (29 Oct RBA) · 1.2600 (V023 closes RIGHT, two closes) | RBA 4pm table is the mark |
| Brent January | ≈$104.8 (not a settle) | $100 · $95 · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $106.45 (Mon intraday, FinanceFeeds) · $113.43 (30 Oct) · $118 | Front month; Monday's range per TE $104.6–112.4 |
| Gold · Silver | $3,944.80 · ≈$50.65 | $3,875 (30 Oct) · $3,800 | $4,000 · ≈$4,020 (29 Oct close) | Rebounded from the lowest since October 2025 |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,856.50 | 8,847.30 · 8,795.2 (23 Oct) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 8,900 (V006: 0 of 2 closes above) · 8,908.10 (30 Oct) · 8,986 (30 Oct high) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 89 / 326 / 1,325bp (29 Oct) | HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) | HY 338 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED; each series carries its own date |
| Bitcoin | ≈$76,867 | $76,000 · $74,000 | $79,000 · $81,636 (28 Oct high) | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Tuesday edition, and the first Tuesday on the post-DST clock: Monday's US cash close was at 08:00 AEDT, two hours after the run started, so Asia, Australia and Europe were written first and the US-close block was fetched last, after the bell, as the runbook's timing protocol requires. At filing (≈09:00 AEDT) the AP tabulation for Monday was published but every syndication tried returned an error, so the four US cash closes are corroborated from the Yahoo post-close page, TradingKey and CNBC's 16:02–16:05 ET figures (relayed by StockTitan), which agree to the cent where both give levels. The Nasdaq-100 is derived from QQQ; no view is closed on it. This edition published ≈90 minutes after the 07:30 target because the US close now lands at 08:00 AEDT. Six research desks ran in parallel from ≈06:10 AEDT. Primary reads this run: the RBA 4pm table (2 Nov), ASX end-of-day futures settlements (2 Nov: SPI, 30-day interbank, YT, XT), FRED (Nasdaq-100, VIX, IG/HY/CCC — confirming no observation after 29 Oct), the official Treasury par curve (confirming no November row), ISM via PR Newswire, the Fed's 28 October statement, the CFTC TFF and legacy COMEX files as of 27 October, ICI, AAII, FactSet's 30 October Earnings Insight and Kitco. Every figure was retrieved on 3 November 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 040
(1) S&P 500 200-day moving average — material. No. 040's key-levels table and theme 1 carried Investing.com's 200-day of ≈7,717 (as of 23 Oct, labelled stale) and said the S&P closed "below all three" moving averages. Deviation-rate data (stock-marketdata, 30 Oct) put the 200-day at ≈7,310 (derived), consistent with Morgan Stanley's description of 7,100–7,200 as "a slight break of the 200-day". The S&P is below its 50-day (≈7,697) and 100-day (≈7,615) and ≈3.7% above its 200-day. The Investing.com MA page is now treated as unusable.
(2) Gilt 10-year, 30 October: No. 040 carried ≈5.29%; the level is consistent with Monday's ≈5.20% and a ≈9bp fall. No change.
(3) Brent December final settle: one Monday source cited $117.64 as "Friday's Brent close"; that is the expired December contract, as No. 040 stated. January's $113.43 remains the base.
(4) Fed range in third-party calendars: FinanceCalendar still lists 3.50–3.75%; the Fed's 28 October statement confirms 3.75–4.00% (verified).
(5) Discharged from Monday's list: ASX 200 Monday close (8,856.50; V006 not fired); RBA 4pm 2 Nov (AUD/NZD 1.2505); ISM; Apple and Palantir dates. Still open: FRED Nasdaq-100 30 Oct; FRED OAS 30 Oct onward; OAT–Bund 2 Nov; settled Fed Rate Monitor.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Trading Economics' change columns printed inverted signs on Monday. One desk took TE's daily changes for the UST 10-year (+5.0bp), Bund (+2.5bp), OAT (+7.0bp), BTP (+8.2bp) and gilt (+9.4bp); TE's own levels against Friday's levels, two US vendor quotes (10-year −4.1 to −4.9bp) and a second European desk (gilts −10bp, "OATs outperformed") all show falls. Levels were used and every change recomputed; the inverted column is discarded. OAT–Bund: TE legs give ≈161bp against the dedicated series' 159.0bp (30 Oct); the methods differ by a few basis points, so the TE figure is reported as derived and does not mark V025. USD/JPY: Investing.com's "previous close" 156.84 conflicts with Friday's ≈157.56 and TE's 157.88; the level 157.47 is shown and the daily change labelled approximate. Russell 2000 intraday: TheStreet −1.66% at the open against Yahoo +0.31%; superseded by the close. Norges Bank rate: 4.50% (hiked September; No. 040, ForexFundamentals) against 4.25% (FinanceCalendar); 4.50% carried. Hike count: a Newsquawk preview called today a "fourth" hike; ABC headlined 29 September as the fourth, so today would be the fifth. Copom: stale Focus −25bp against calendar hold. Platinum: Kitco $1,428 (07:36 ET) against TE $1,459.90; not shown. CoinGecko: header total cap $2.68tn against its own text $2.62tn; header used. Brent January: Dow Jones $105.01 (14:40 ET), CNBC $104.77 (near close), TE $104.6–104.9, Rigzone $104.00; no settle; ≈$104.8 shown and labelled. Dow intraday: Yahoo quote box 52,013.67 at 15:57 ET against the 51,983.98 close; the close is used.
Single-source and unverified items
CSI 300 and HS Tech closes · NZX 50 · RatingDog PMI · PBoC 2 Nov fix and the CNY200bn state-fund loan report · Westpac FY26 detail · AU approvals, Melbourne Institute gauge and Cotality detail (ABC blog) · Marvell–Lumentum terms · S&P Global final PMI · construction spending · Fitch France action · Kazimir quote · FinanceFeeds curve detail · ADNOC stock-draw figure · Sløk quote · BofA weekly flows (Newsquawk) and Hartnett's exit conditions (StockWire X) · all European sovereign levels (TE) · DXY, EUR, GBP, CHF, MXN, INR, KRW (TE) · crypto prices (CoinGecko only) · midterm and Fed prediction-market reads (defirate relay) · CME FedWatch (Yahoo live blog) · NZ election date. VIX close (Yahoo) · WTI settle (Dow Jones headline only) · Nasdaq-100 (derived from QQQ via StockTitan).
Not obtained
Stoxx 600 close · FRED Nasdaq-100, VIX and OAS after 29 Oct · official par curve for 2 Nov (posts ≈08:00 AEDT Wed) · OAT–Bund dedicated row for 2 Nov · settled Fed Rate Monitor (stale since 27 Oct) · LME copper 2 Nov (Westmetall) · iron ore Monday print · Monday spot crypto ETF flows · CoinShares weekly · Coinalyze funding/OI · IG issuance volume · ANZ-Indeed job ads · ASX issue breadth · Hormuz transit count after 1 Nov · Riksbank, Norges, NBP and BNM exact times/dates · November FMS date · SpotGamma gamma levels · Nasdaq-100 moving averages · the 17 Nov Assemblée vote date. AP tabulation (published, not loadable) · Brent January settle · Treasury borrowing estimates (sb0675 not loadable) · Apple and Palantir results · DXY close · Monday VIX futures.
Wednesday's first verification targets
(1) RBA decision, SMP and the 4pm table today (V023 post-decision mark). (2) ASX 200 close today (V006, 0 of 2). (3) Official par curve for 2 Nov and the 3 Nov row. (4) FRED Nasdaq-100 for 30 Oct and 2 Nov (V031) and FRED HY/IG/CCC from 30 Oct (V017). (5) OAT–Bund dedicated rows for 2–3 Nov (V025). (6) Brent January settle Tuesday (V024). (7) Midterm results and any post-vote Iran decision; AMD; JOLTS; NZ labour; settled Fed pricing.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- TradingKey — US close · StockTitan — 2 Nov live (CNBC relay) · AP tabulation (not loadable) · Treasury — borrowing estimates (not loadable) · Yahoo — Monday live blog · Reuters via Investing.com — open · Bloomberg via Swissinfo — markets wrap · TheStreet — 2 Nov · Motley Fool — midday · ISM — October manufacturing · Treasury yields · US Treasury — par curve (Nov) · Fed — 28 Oct statement · FRED — Nasdaq-100 · FRED — VIX
- defirate — Fed odds · defirate — midterm odds · defirate — sources · USPollingData — poll closings · 270toWin · CRFB — deadlines · Newsquawk — Fedspeak · StockTitan — earnings calendar · FactSet — 30 Oct · FactSet EI PDF
- CFTC — TFF · legacy COMEX · Newsquawk — BofA flows · StockWire X — BofA strategy · ICI — fund flows · ICI — money funds · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · VIX term structure · SKEW · Hindenburg · breadth · S&P MA deviation · investingLive — MS Wilson · Finvaulta — BofA · year-end targets
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · ASX — futures settlements 2 Nov · Newsquawk — RBA preview · StockWire X — bank calls · investingLive — RBA · rbaratewatch · ForexFundamentals — BoE · Riksbank · Norges · investingLive — ECB · Westpac IQ — RBNZ · OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — bonds · TE — FX · Investing — USD/JPY · AUD/USD
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- Sharetrader — ASX close · Reuters via Business Recorder · ad-hoc-news — ASX · AAP via CommBank · ABC — markets live, 2 Nov · AP via CP24 — Asia · TE — ACGB · Westpac IQ — NZ labour preview
- BigGo — Nikkei · Armenpress — Nikkei · ad-hoc-news — Hang Seng · TAIEX · JoongAng — KOSPI · Business Today — India · TE — China · Newsquawk — Asia/Europe open
Europe and geopolitics
- TE — DAX · CAC · FTSE · FTSE MIB · IBEX · SMI · TE — gilts · Newsquawk — headlines · Newsquawk — weekly calendar · Sud Radio — PLFSS · TE — calendar
- MEE — Araghchi · ANI — two-day plan · Axios via Express Tribune · CNBC/WSJ relay — strikes · Windward blog · ITV — talks after 10 Nov
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Dow Jones via MarketScreener — WTI settle · Rigzone — oil · TE — Brent · FinanceFeeds — oil · AP via Yahoo — oil and Iran · InvestingNews · Buckhead Energy · TE — commodities · Kitco — gold · Kitco — silver · Westmetall — copper
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · CoinGecko · HedgeCo — ETF flows · The Block — Binance · Bloomberg via Yahoo — Binance outflows