The bottom line
- The AI-capex sell-off broadened from Alphabet to semis and Amazon, and the Nasdaq finished October down 5.3%. On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq Composite 2.86% to 25,437.00 and the Dow 1.09% to 51,770.31 (AP tabulation; verified); the Nasdaq-100 fell ≈3.46% to 28,384.85 (cappnotes, Newsquawk; corroborated, FRED not yet posted). Intel fell 28.6% on its Q4 guide, its worst day since 1974, the SOX lost 7.2% and Amazon, whose trailing free cash flow is −$42.4bn, closed −1.4% after −6% overnight (Reuters, Yahoo; corroborated). The Nasdaq is 7.8% below its 6 October record and the VIX rose 12.9% to 19.42. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) is now 2.75% in favour; Morgan Stanley's Wilson expects one last leg to 7,100–7,200 on the S&P before a year-end rebound.
- The RBA meets Tuesday at 14:30 with a hike to 4.85% still the majority case, and the ASX gave V006 the first of its two closes. ASX 30-day futures settled Friday imply ≈78% for a 25bp hike (our derivation from the November and December contracts; reported reads span ≈70–90%); all four majors call 4.85%. The ASX 200 closed 8,908.10 (+0.18%, +1.28% on the week; corroborated), the first close above 8,900: a second close above 8,900 today closes V006 (still ≈1.1% in favour of the underweight on the entry), though Friday's US sell-off came after the SPI's 8,918 day settle. Cotality's October index fell 1.2%, a seventh monthly fall. AUD/NZD printed 1.2480 on the RBA table, inside V023's band.
- The Fed is talking hikes while the curve bull-steepens. Logan wants "at least two more" 25bp hikes and Musalem said further firming is needed "soon" (24/7 Wall St; single source), yet the par 2-year fell 13bp on the week to 4.56% and the 10-year 6bp to 4.94% (Treasury; verified). December is priced at ≈76% on CME FedWatch (30 Oct) and 70.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket (defirate, 14:12 ET 1 Nov). ISM manufacturing lands at 02:00 AEDT Tuesday, the refunding at 00:30 Thursday and payrolls (consensus +55–65k, prior +29k) at 00:30 Saturday.
- Midterms on Tuesday: a Democratic sweep is priced at about 70%, and Washington says no Iran strike before the vote. Kalshi's balance-of-power market had a sweep at 71% at 00:28 ET Sunday; defirate's 13:47 ET read was 69.5% (Kalshi) and 70.5% (Polymarket). Polls close from ≈11:00 AEDT Wednesday. Hartnett said on 23 October a sweep is "not priced" in equities; the FMS had only 31% expecting one. Rubio said Trump "hasn't made a decision" on strikes and Trump said further strikes are unlikely before the midterms (Fox; corroborated), against WSJ and NPR reports of planning for a campaign afterwards.
- Oil: the expiring December contract settled at $117.64, and the weekend's Doha talks leave two-way risk into Monday's reopen. Brent December settled +$2.76 on its expiry day, the highest settle since April; January, now the front, settled $113.43 (+2.37%) and WTI $104.12 (verified). Brent rose 13.6% in October. Four vessels were struck on 29–30 October including the first limpet-mine attack in the Gulf since 2019, yet AIS-visible Hormuz transits rose to ≈24 in the 48 hours to 1 November (Windward). OPEC+ held December targets. Araghchi says a proposal could reopen Hormuz "within two days". Gold fell 3.6% to $3,875, its lowest since October 2025, and TTF closed above €100.
- Asia opens on soft China data, a BoJ dissent and a crypto shock. China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 (consensus 50.0) and non-manufacturing to 49.7 (corroborated); the CSI 300 posted a 12th straight weekly fall. The BoJ held at 1.25% 8–1 with Takata voting for 1.50% and raised its FY27 core CPI forecast to 2.6% (BoJ; verified). The KOSPI fell 3.48% on Friday even as Korea's October exports hit a record $115.3bn (+93.7%). A reported $6.3bn Binance hack, attributed by the FBI to North Korea, hit crypto equities; spot BTC ETFs lost $643m on Friday and BTC is ≈$78,000. CFTC data show leveraged funds adding 81k contracts of Treasury shorts to −6.88m in the week to 27 October.
Overnight & weekend recap
United States: two sessions, one theme
Thursday 29 October closed better than No. 039's late quote box: the S&P 500 fell 23.59 (−0.3%) to 7,720.39, the Dow −0.3% to 52,342.56, the Nasdaq −1.4% to 26,184.72 and the Russell 2000 +1.0% to 2,859.22 (AP; verified). Alphabet closed −12.6% at $283.82, its worst day since its 2004 listing (StockTitan; corroborated), while Microsoft gained on Azure +48%. The Nasdaq-100 closed 29,402.51 (FRED; verified) and the VIX 17.20.
Friday 30 October was the worst US session since June. The S&P 500 fell 140.32 (−1.82%) to 7,580.07, the Dow 572.25 (−1.09%) to 51,770.31, the Nasdaq 747.73 (−2.86%) to 25,437.00 and the Russell 2000 47.37 (−1.66%) to 2,811.84 (AP; verified; SPY −1.77% and QQQ −3.47% at the 16:00 close, stockanalysis). For the week: S&P −0.6%, Dow −0.9%, Nasdaq −2.0%, Russell +1.3%; for October the Nasdaq fell 5.3%, its worst month since March 2025, and the S&P 0.9%, while the Dow rose 1.7% (Yahoo/Investopedia; corroborated). NYSE decliners led 1.8:1 on volume of 19.9bn shares against a 17.3bn 20-day average (Reuters). Intel fell 28.6% to about $65 after guiding Q4 revenue to $15–16bn and GAAP EPS to $0.10, with a ≈$1.9bn foundry operating loss; the SOX fell 7.2% and more than 15% in October, with AMD −10.9%, Nvidia −4.2%, Broadcom and Micron each more than −5%, Dell −10.8% and HP −9.6% (Reuters, Yahoo; corroborated). Amazon missed on EPS ($1.89) and reported trailing free cash flow of −$42.4bn on AI capex, kept its $220bn 2026 capex plan and said 2027 will be "significantly more"; it closed −1.4% after trading as much as −6–7% (Yahoo, StockTitan; corroborated). Energy was the offset: Exxon +2.2% and Chevron +2.8% after beats on refining margins. Crypto equities fell on a reported $6.3bn Binance hack: Coinbase −10.6%, Strategy −7.8%, Robinhood −7.2%, Circle ≈−11% (Reuters; corroborated by Newsquawk's FBI attribution to North Korea). Reddit fell ≈29% on its guide (single source).
Data and rates. The Q3 employment cost index rose 0.8% q/q, with wages +0.7% and 3.1% y/y (BLS; verified). The official par curve bull-steepened on Friday: 2-year 4.56% (−5bp), 5-year 4.71% (−7bp), 10-year 4.94% (−4bp), 30-year 5.31% (−1bp); on the week 2s −13bp, 10s −6bp, 30s −2bp (Treasury; verified). Fed speakers out of blackout were hawkish: Logan wants "at least two more" 25bp hikes and called the October hold a skip that "does not change the monetary policy destination"; Musalem said "additional firming… will be necessary, and soon"; Barkin said the question is pace (24/7 Wall St; single source). CME FedWatch had a December hike at ≈76% (30 Oct, from 78% on Thursday and 84% on Wednesday; cappnotes). Gold fell 3.6% to $3,875 (Kitco; verified), which Commerzbank attributed to margin-call liquidation alongside the tech sell-off. The dollar index was ≈101.88 (TE).
Asia and Australia, Friday 30 October
The BoJ held at 1.25% by 8–1, with Takata proposing 1.50% on the grounds that underlying inflation has reached target; the Outlook Report raised FY27 core CPI to 2.6% (from 2.4%) and kept FY26 at 2.5% and FY28 at 2.0%, and the Bank will sell ETFs at ≈¥860bn a year from January (BoJ; verified). Ueda said it is "too early" to declare the target achieved and that December is live (secondary). Tokyo October CPI was 2.8% against 3.3% expected (Newsquawk; single source). The Nikkei fell 2.12% to 63,290.11 on chip names (Advantest −5.9%, Tokyo Electron −5.2%, Lasertec −8.8%) and the JGB 10-year fell ≈7bp to 2.77% (corroborated; TE). The KOSPI fell 3.48% to 5,730.74 with a sidecar triggered and ₩1.62tn of foreign selling (Seoul Economic Daily, TE; corroborated). Shanghai fell 1.44% to 3,599.02, a 52-week closing low, and the CSI 300 1.39% to 3,985.50; the Hang Seng rose 1.46% to 23,294 on Sinopec and Tencent (TE; corroborated where noted). The TAIEX fell 2.49% (TE; unverified). The ASX 200 rose 0.18% to 8,908.10 after trading as high as 8,986 in the morning; JB Hi-Fi +6.2% and Reece +8.4% led and Coles fell 7.7% on its Q1 update (ABC, ad-hoc-news; corroborated). Q3 PPI rose 1.1% q/q and 3.6% y/y; September private credit +0.6% m/m, 8.4% y/y (TE; single source).
Europe, Friday 30 October
Euro-area Q3 flash GDP rose 0.4% q/q against 0.2% expected (France −0.1%, Germany +0.2%, Spain +0.6%); German October CPI fell to 2.8% from 3.3% (3.0% expected) on a temporary fuel-tax cut, with core 2.1% (TE, Newsquawk; corroborated). French HICP 3.8% and Italian 5.6% beat expectations (single source). Equities fell on tech: Stoxx 600 ≈−0.4% to ≈641–647 (sources conflict, §13), DAX −0.85% to ≈25,818, CAC ≈flat at ≈7,969, FTSE 100 +0.07% to ≈10,730, FTSE MIB −1.0% (TE; corroborated as to the day's move), with ASML −6% and Infineon more than −6%. Bunds fell to their lowest yield since late August (≈3.32%) while the OAT–Bund spread widened 5.6bp to 159.0bp (dedicated series; verified). Econostream reported that Lagarde "nudged TPI back into public discussion" of French bond stress, and six ECB speakers leaned hawkish (Makhlouf: an October hike was "seriously considered").
Weekend 31 October – 1 November
China. The NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 (consensus 50.0, prior 50.1), the lowest since July, with new orders 49.4 and output prices 51.7; non-manufacturing fell to 49.7 (50.5 expected) with construction 48.0 (CGTN, SMM; corroborated). No stimulus news followed; the NPC Standing Committee meets 2–6 November with no fiscal items on the agenda (Newsquawk; single source). Korea reported record October exports of $115.3bn (+93.7% y/y, chips +259%) on a low holiday base (JoongAng; corroborated). OPEC+ (seven producers) kept December targets unchanged on Sunday and pushed the 2027 decision to the full group on 29 November (Reuters via GV Wire, Bloomberg; corroborated). Iran. Iranian negotiators met Qatari mediators in Doha; Tehran said the US had "shifted tone" in a Vance letter, and Araghchi said a proposal discussed with mediators could fully reopen Hormuz "within two days", while ruling out direct talks (AP via Fox, Al Jazeera; corroborated). Rubio said no decision on further strikes has been made; Trump said talks are going "fine" and further strikes are unlikely before the midterms. Iran's army warned any new war "will not be confined to West Asia". Gulf shipping. Windward logged four vessels struck on 29–30 October, including the laden Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda south of Lavan and a limpet-mine attack on the tanker Louise 1 off Khasab, but ≈24 AIS-visible transits in the 48 hours to 1 November against 18 in the prior window. The US ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia (Newsquawk). Israel: thousands rallied for a "Jewish-Arab" coalition; the last reported partial count had Netanyahu's bloc on 54 seats (Al Jazeera; Colorado Politics). Property: Cotality's October home value index fell 1.2% nationally (Brisbane −2.0%, Perth −1.7%, Sydney −1.6%; corroborated as to the national figure).
Monday opens. No indicative FX or futures opens were available at filing: ICE and NYMEX reopen around 10:00 AEDT. The SPI December contract settled 8,918 on Friday (ASX; verified) but its day-session settle predates Friday's US sell-off; our inference is a softer ASX open, led lower by technology and lithium, with energy supported by Friday's oil settles and banks by Tuesday's priced hike.
Market dashboard
Week to Friday 30 October: cross-asset change
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | −1.82% | −0.57% | Verified (AP). Thursday 7,720.39. October −0.9%; YTD +10.7%. Third straight weekly loss |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,770.31 · 25,437.00 | −1.09% · −2.86% | −0.85% · −2.00% | AP (verified). Nasdaq −5.3% in October, 7.8% below the 6 Oct record |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | 2,811.84 · 28,384.85 | −1.66% · −3.46% | +1.30% · −1.98% | Russell AP (verified). NDX cappnotes and Newsquawk agree (corroborated); FRED to 29 Oct (29,402.51) |
| VIX · VIX3M | 19.42 · 20.78 | +12.9% | ≈0.0% | Ratio 0.935, still contango (thetrading.tools; corroborated). 29 Oct 17.20 FRED (verified). SKEW 149.8 |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | ≈641–647 · ≈25,818 | ≈−0.4% · −0.85% | ≈+1.7–2.1% · ≈+2.5% | Stoxx sources conflict (§13); DAX TE and Newsquawk agree. Tech −3%, ASML −6% |
| FTSE 100 · CAC 40 | ≈10,730 · ≈7,969 | +0.07% · −0.01% | ≈+0.4% · ≈+2.4% | TE levels (CFD-based); weekly derived from TE |
| FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI | ≈49,501 · ≈18,653 · ≈14,811 | −1.00% · −1.09% · +0.36% | ≈+1.9% · ≈−1.8% · ≈+2.4% | TE overview; SMI Newsquawk 14,820 |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 63,290.11 · — | −2.12% · — | ≈+1.0% | Corroborated (ad-hoc-news, TE); official archive unavailable. October −8.2% (TE). TOPIX not obtained |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,599.02 · 3,985.50 | −1.44% · −1.39% | ≈−2.5% · ≈−2.9% | Shanghai a 52-week closing low; CSI 300 12th straight weekly fall (TE; weekly derived from No. 039 priors) |
| Hang Seng | 23,294 | +1.46% | ≈+0.9% | TE and bbntimes agree (corroborated). HS Tech not obtained. Southbound sold ≈HK$24bn in October |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,730.74 · ≈45,212 | −3.48% · ≈−2.49% | +3.25% · ≈−1.8% | KOSPI corroborated (Seoul Economic Daily, TE); sidecar triggered. TAIEX TE CFD (unverified) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | ≈74,460 · ≈23,053 | ≈+0.42% · ≈+0.51% | ≈+1.8% · — | TE (unverified) |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,908.10 | +0.18% | +1.28% | Corroborated (ABC, ad-hoc-news; ties to 8,891.80 + 16.30). Intraday 8,986. First close above V006's 8,900 line. SPI Dec settle 8,918 (+13; ASX, verified) |
| NZX 50 | ≈13,797 | ≈+0.63% | ≈+0.5% | TE (CFD-based; unverified) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.56 · 4.71 · 4.94 · 5.31% | −5 · −7 · −4 · −1bp | −13 · −11 · −6 · −2bp | Verified (Treasury par, 30 Oct). 29 Oct row 4.61 · 4.78 · 4.98 · 5.32 |
| 2s10s · 5s30s (par) | 38 · 60bp | +1 · +6bp | +7 · +9bp | Derived from verified rows. A bull steepener; V030 (5s30s steepener) closed wrong on 23 Oct and is not reopened |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.29 · ≈5.72% | ≈0 · ≈+1bp | ≈−8bp · — | TE; five-week low after the 28 Oct Budget |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | ≈3.32 · ≈4.97 · ≈4.49% | ≈−4 · ≈+6 · ≈0bp | ≈−2 · ≈−6 · ≈−10bp | TE (weekly unit unconfirmed). Bund lowest since late August |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 159.0bp (30 Oct) | +5.6bp | −12.8bp | Verified (ideal-investisseur; OAT 4.93 / Bund 3.34). 29 Oct 153.4bp. 19bp above V025's mirror zone |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.77 · ≈3.84% | ≈−7 · ≈−6bp | ≈−3bp · — | TE; near a three-month low after the BoJ hold |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.92 · 4.84 · 5.13% | −2.7 · −4.0 · −4bp | ≈+2 · ≈−1 · ≈−5bp | TE (2y/3y single source); 10y corroborated by ABC and ASX XT futures (≈5.125%) |
| Canada 10y | ≈3.80% | ≈0bp | ≈−5bp | TE |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS | 89 · 326 · 1,325bp (29 Oct) | +3 · +12 · +18bp | −2 · −12 · −31bp | Verified (FRED; 28 Oct 86 · 314 · 1,307). 30 Oct not yet posted. HY 21bp from V017's mirror |
| FX | Fri close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈101.88 | ≈−0.15% | ≈+0.1% | TE quote box; TE's own text says "+0.2% on the week" (conflict, §13) |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1158 · ≈1.3392 | ≈−0.20% · ≈+0.11% | ≈−0.39% · ≈+0.10% | TE; consistent with RBA-implied crosses (corroborated) |
| USD/JPY | ≈157.56 | ≈−0.10% | ≈+0.44% | Yen firmer three sessions on safe-haven demand (TE; corroborated by RBA-implied 157.41) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7040 (RBA) · ≈0.7032 (NY) | −0.18% (RBA) | +0.49% (RBA, vs 0.7006) | RBA 4pm verified. NY TE. Bases never blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2480 (RBA) · ≈0.5630 | −0.56% (RBA) | +1.36% (RBA, vs 1.2313) | RBA 4pm verified. NY cross ≈1.249 (derived) |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.3973 · ≈0.8250 | ≈−0.12% · ≈+0.07% | ≈−0.22% · ≈0.0% | TE (unverified) |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6523 · 6.7138 | ≈−0.07% | ≈−0.26% | TE corroborated by RBA cross. Fix and its ≈590-pip gap single source (TE) |
| USD/MXN · USD/INR · USD/KRW | ≈18.79 · ≈94.93 · ≈1,333 | ≈−0.4 · −0.3 · −0.5% | ≈+0.6 · ≈0.0 · ≈+0.7% | TE (unverified) |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent JANUARY (front) | $113.43 | +2.37% | ≈+1.55% | Verified settle (Nation/Reuters, Rigzone, TE). 29 Oct $110.80 (derived, ties to TE). Weekly on Investing's 23 Oct Jan row (≈) |
| Brent DECEMBER (expired 30 Oct) | $117.64 final | +2.4% | ≈+0.8–1.5% | Highest settle since April (Reuters). October +13.6%. Dec–Jan $4.21 |
| WTI DECEMBER | $104.12 | +2.08% | ≈+0.8% | Verified (Dow Jones/MarketScreener). 29 Oct $102.00. October +15.2% |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $2.90 · €103.95 | −1.8% · +6.2% | ≈−5.0% · ≈+10.8% | TE; TTF above €100 for the first time since 2022; October +40.6% |
| Gold (spot) | $3,875 | −3.6% | ≈−3.0% | Verified (Kitco bid $3,874.40; TE $3,875.84). COMEX Dec $3,898.90. Lowest since Oct 2025; October −7.2% |
| Silver · Platinum | $48.90 · $1,436 | −6.2% · −3.8% | ≈−9.2% · ≈−8.1% | TE (corroborated within ≈$0.4 for silver) |
| Copper LME cash · 3M · COMEX | $14,449 · $14,250 · $6.46/lb | −0.8% · −0.7% · −1.9% | +0.2% · −0.1% · −0.4% | Westmetall (verified): $199 backwardation; stocks 274,000t. COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% · aluminium | $90.71 · $3,060 | 0.0% · −0.4% | −0.1% · +0.4% | TE; the iron-ore print may be stale (unchanged two sessions) |
| Lithium carb. · uranium | CNY93,600 · $92.55 | −2.6% · +0.3% | −3.5% · +2.7% | TE; lithium −25% in October |
| Bitcoin | ≈$77,980 | ≈+0.5% (24h) | ≈−3.3% (7d) | CoinGecko ≈19:00 UTC Sun (no timestamp; corroborated by homepage $77,901). Deribit 30 Oct max pain $79,000 |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,269 · $94.78 · $1.25 · $711 | 24h mixed | −3.2 · −6.5 · −3.8 · −4.1% | CoinGecko. Total cap ≈$2.69tn; BTC dominance 58.25% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC −$643.2m (30 Oct) | ETH −$156m | BTC −$202.4m | Largest BTC outflow since June; IBIT −$233.7m, FBTC −$201.0m (Farside via relays; corroborated) |
Conventions: 1d is Friday 30 October; 1w is the change since Friday 23 October's close, from No. 035's verified priors where they exist and "≈" where the prior is derived or vendor. US cash closes are AP's tabulation; Treasury levels the official par row. FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is New York (TE, no timestamp) unless marked RBA 4pm; the two bases are never blended. Brent weekly changes are contract-matched (the continuous series' −2.8% is a roll artefact). "—" means not obtained.
What is driving markets
1. AI capex: from Alphabet's cash burn to a sector correction
What was one company's problem on Thursday became the sector's on Friday. Alphabet closed −12.6% on Thursday after reporting a second quarter of negative free cash flow (≈−$9.1bn) and signalling a "significant increase" in 2027 capex; Amazon reported trailing twelve-month free cash flow of −$42.4bn, kept its $220bn 2026 capex plan and said 2027 would be "significantly more"; and Intel's guide (Q4 revenue $15–16bn, GAAP EPS $0.10, a ≈$1.9bn foundry loss) took the stock down 28.6% and the SOX down 7.2% (Reuters, Yahoo, StockTitan; corroborated). The four largest spenders put ≈$200bn of capex through Q3 against ≈$164bn in Q2 and none signalled a 2027 slowdown (404k research compilation; single source). Microsoft is the exception that keeps the distinction alive: Azure +48%, FY27 capex $170bn and positive free cash flow. The Nasdaq-100 fell ≈3.46% on Friday to 28,384.85, 3.5% below its 50-day (29,405) and 6.0% below its 200-day (30,181), with the 50-day under the 200-day (MAs as of 27 Oct, Investing.com; stale). The S&P closed below all three of its moving averages. Morgan Stanley's Wilson (29 Oct) expects AI worries to peak in three to four weeks as AI debt issuance is absorbed, with a final S&P leg to 7,100–7,200 before a rebound to 8,000 by year-end.
2. Washington's week: hawkish Fed speakers, a bull-steepening curve, the refunding and the midterms
The Fed's first speakers after the 28 October hold (10–2, Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike) were explicit: Logan wants "at least two more" hikes, Musalem says firming is needed "soon" (24/7 Wall St; single source). The bond market did the opposite. The par 2-year fell 13bp on the week to 4.56%, the 10-year 6bp to 4.94% and 5s30s steepened 9bp to 60bp (Treasury; verified): our reading is that growth fear from the tech sell-off outran the hawkish rhetoric, with December still ≈76% priced on CME (30 Oct) and 70.5% on prediction markets (1 Nov). The data are hot rather than weak: Q3 GDP 3.4%, core PCE 3.1% y/y, ECI wages 3.1% y/y, claims 194k. This week stacks four catalysts in four days: ISM manufacturing (consensus 54.7, prices paid prior 77.9) at 02:00 AEDT Tuesday; the midterms on Tuesday, with a Democratic sweep at ≈70% on Kalshi and Polymarket (defirate, 13:47 ET 1 Nov); the quarterly refunding at 00:30 AEDT Thursday (preliminary Q4 borrowing $628bn; the question is whether "at least the next several quarters" coupon guidance survives); and October payrolls at 00:30 AEDT Saturday (consensus +55–65k, prior +29k, unemployment 4.2%).
3. Oil: December expires at $117.64 while Doha and the limpet mines cancel out
Brent December settled $117.64 on its last trading day (+$2.76), the highest settle since April; January, now the front, settled $113.43 (+$2.63), leaving a $4.21 roll gap that the continuous series shows as a fall (verified; DTN, Reuters via Nation, Rigzone). Brent rose 13.6% and WTI 15.2% in October. The drivers on Friday were a reported US commander briefing on strike options after the midterms, two tanker attacks near Hormuz and a Ukrainian strike on a Samara refinery; a US SPR exchange of ≈41mb and Europe's 42mb release were the offsets. Windward logged four vessels struck on 29–30 October, including the first limpet-mine attack in the Gulf since 2019 and a laden Qatari LNG carrier, yet ≈24 AIS-visible transits in the 48 hours to 1 November against 18 in the prior window; UKMTO logged 43 incidents in October (Oil Monitor; single source). OPEC+ kept December targets unchanged with Gulf members still producing below quota for want of export routes. Over the weekend Araghchi said a proposal could reopen Hormuz "within two days", Rubio said no strike decision has been made, and Trump said strikes are unlikely before the vote (corroborated).
4. France and the ECB: the spread re-widens and TPI re-enters the conversation
The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 153.4bp on 29 October and 159.0bp on 30 October (OAT 4.93%, Bund 3.34%; verified), −12.8bp on the week but +5.6bp on Friday, when Bunds rallied to their lowest yield since late August and OATs sold. France's Q3 GDP contracted 0.1% while the euro area grew 0.4%; French HICP printed 3.8% against 3.6% expected (single source). Econostream reported Lagarde "nudged TPI back into public discussion" of French bond stress; six ECB speakers on Friday leaned hawkish on December. The social-security bill reaches the Senate on 9 November after the Assemblée rejected its revenue section 115–1 (Sud Radio; verified), with the Assemblée vote on the state budget on 17 November. ECB succession (Hernández de Cos against Knot) is decided at December's European Council (single source).
5. Australia: a priced hike, a falling housing market, and the ASX on the line
The RBA decides Tuesday at 14:30 AEDT with the Statement on Monetary Policy; the cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year. The September monthly CPI was 4.3% y/y and the Q3 trimmed mean 1.0% q/q (ABS; verified) and all four majors call 4.85% (corroborated). Friday's ASX 30-day futures settles (November 95.225, December 95.165) imply ≈78% for a hike on Tuesday and ≈94% by December on our derivation; reported reads range from ≈70–75% (centralbank.watch, 1 Nov) to 85–90% (ABC, CBA). Against that, Cotality's October index fell 1.2%, a seventh straight monthly fall, with Brisbane −2.0% and sales volumes ≈23% below a year earlier (single source). The ASX 200 rose 1.28% on the week to 8,908.10, the first close above V006's pre-committed 8,900 line.
Central bank watch
Pricing for the 9 December FOMC, by source
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp) | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP | Dec +25bp ≈76% (CME FedWatch, 30 Oct; from 84% on 28 Oct); 70.5% Kalshi and Polymarket (14:12 ET 1 Nov). Investing monitor stale (27 Oct 09:25 ET: 73.4%) | Hawkish hold |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | Held 29 Oct; Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate" | Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Dec +25bp 76.5% (+19.1bp; centralbank.watch, 30 Oct; single source); ≈67bp over nine meetings | Hawkish hold |
| BoJ | 1.25% | Held 30 Oct, 8–1 (Takata for 1.50%) | Fri 18 Dec | FY27 core CPI 2.6% (from 2.4%); ETF sales ≈¥860bn/yr from Jan. Ueda: December live (secondary). Market pricing not refreshed | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30 | ≈78% for 4.85% (derived from ASX 30-day futures, 30 Oct settle); ≈94% by Dec. Reported range ≈70–90% (centralbank.watch 70–75%, TE 83%, ABC 85.6–90%). All big four call +25bp | Hike priced |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 | Wed 9 Dec 12:00 + MPS | ≈76% for Dec (TE; single source). Hansen: December "50-50" | Tightening bias, delayed |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 16 Sep, 6–3 (three for 4.00%) | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | +23.7bp, 94.9% for 4.00% (centralbank.watch, 30 Oct); 4.09% by 17 Dec, 4.30% by Feb. Vote consensus 7–2 (TE) | Hike priced |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct | Thu 10 Dec 01:45 | ≈45% for Dec (28 Oct, carried) | Hiking, careful |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Riks held 24 Sep · Norges +25bp 24 Sep | Riks Wed 4 Nov 19:30 · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Riksbank consensus +25bp to 2.00% (TE); Norges TE forecast hold, no consensus | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct | LPR Fri 20 Nov 12:00 | 30 Oct fix 6.7138 (TE; single source); NPC Standing Committee 2–6 Nov with no fiscal items | Leaning against CNY |
| Emerging markets | |||||
| Brazil (BCB) | 13.75% | −25bp 16 Sep | Copom Thu 5 Nov ≈08:30 | Conflict: Focus (13 Oct) −25bp to 13.50% vs TE hold | Watch |
| Mexico (Banxico) · Poland (NBP) | 6.50% · 3.75% | Banxico held 24 Sep | NBP Thu 5 Nov 01:00 · Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 | Hold forecast for both (TE) | Hold |
| Malaysia (BNM) · Korea (BoK) · India (RBI) | 2.75% · 3.00% · 5.50% | BoK held 22 Oct · RBI +25bp 7 Oct | BNM Thu 5 Nov (TE only) · BoK 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec | TE forecasts: BNM hold, BoK 3.25%, RBI 5.75% end-quarter | Mixed |
RBA Tuesday. The decision is priced; the content is not. The August SMP had trimmed mean returning toward 3.4% (No. 039 trail); the Q3 print of 1.0% q/q and the September monthly 3.6% trimmed mean will push the near-term path up. The questions are whether the Board retains a tightening bias after 4.85% (CBA calls it an "insurance hike" then holds; Westpac flags February) and how it treats a housing market falling 1.2% a month. ACGB 3-year futures imply ≈4.81% (derived), so a hold would be a large rally and a hawkish SMP a modest sell-off.
BoE Thursday. A hike to 4.00% is ≈95% priced after the 28 October Budget kept the fiscal rules (headroom £14.5bn) and the OBR forecast CPI of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The MPR and the vote split (consensus 7–2) matter more than the decision; the curve prices ≈4.30% by February.
BoJ read-out. The 8–1 hold with Takata arguing underlying inflation has reached target, a higher FY27 core forecast and a faster ETF run-off is a hawkish hold; the full Outlook Report text publishes today. The yen firmed only modestly (≈157.6); the JGB 10-year fell ≈7bp, so the market read December as live but not certain.
Regional briefs
United States
Hot data, hawkish Fed, falling yields and a tech correction. The week to 30 October brought Q3 GDP 3.4%, September core PCE 3.1% y/y with headline 3.6%, ECI wages 3.1% y/y and claims of 194k (BEA, BLS; verified), yet the 2-year fell 13bp: the tech sell-off and the Alphabet–Amazon–Intel results set the tone. Q3 earnings are strong on the aggregate: with 60% reported, 82% beat on EPS and blended growth is +30.2% (FactSet, 30 Oct; verified), though the net margin fell to 14.9% from 17.0% in Q2. This week: ISM manufacturing (Tuesday 02:00 AEDT), JOLTS, the refunding (Thursday 00:30), ISM services (Thursday 02:00), payrolls (Saturday 00:30) and UMich (Saturday 02:00). Apple reports Monday after the close in its first call with John Ternus as CEO (single source), then Palantir, AMD (Tuesday), Qualcomm and Arm (Wednesday). Okta replaces Kenvue in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. Government funding runs to 11 December. Midterms Tuesday: 35 Senate seats, with AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX and NC the races named as decisive.
Euro area
Growth beat, Germany disinflated, France contracted. Q3 flash GDP rose 0.4% q/q (consensus 0.2%; Q2 revised to 0.6%), 1.3% y/y, led by Ireland (+5.5%), Spain and the Netherlands (+0.6%); France −0.1%, Italy flat, Germany +0.2% (TE, Newsquawk; corroborated). German October CPI fell to 2.8% from 3.3% on a temporary fuel-tax cut (energy 12.2% from 14.9%, core 2.1%). The euro-area flash HICP lands Wednesday at 21:00 AEDT (consensus 3.9%, prior 3.8%; core 2.5%). Six ECB speakers on Friday leaned toward December: Makhlouf said October was "seriously considered", Nagel will "act decisively if necessary", Panetta said hikes "could prove necessary" while minding bond yields (econostream; verified as reported). Lagarde speaks Friday 02:00 AEDT. The Bundestag's budget committee marks up the 2027 budget on 12 November (spending €555.44bn, net borrowing €118.73bn) with the final vote on 27 November (Bundestag; verified). EUR/USD ≈1.116, −0.4% on the week.
United Kingdom
The Budget held the rules; the BoE is next. Chancellor John Healey's 28 October Budget left headroom of £14.5bn in 2029-30 (from ≈£22bn) with a 56% OBR probability of meeting the mandate, raised savings and property income tax rates from April 2027, extended the 5p fuel-duty cut to June 2027 and added a £100 energy payment for bands A–D; borrowing is £133.2bn (4.2% of GDP) this year (uktaxdrag, BusinessDay/Reuters; corroborated). Gilts rallied to a five-week low in yield (10-year ≈5.29%). A 25bp hike to 4.00% on Thursday is ≈95% priced; the MPR's inflation path is the point. FTSE 100 ≈10,730 (+0.4% on the week); NatWest fell 9% and AstraZeneca rose 7% on Friday (TE; unverified).
Japan
A hawkish hold and an AI sell-off. The BoJ held at 1.25% 8–1, Takata dissenting for 1.50%, raised FY27 core CPI to 2.6% and core-core to 2.7%, and accelerated ETF sales to ≈¥860bn a year from January (BoJ; verified). Tokyo October CPI eased to 2.8% from 3.3% expected (single source). The Nikkei fell 2.12% to 63,290.11 on Friday (−8.2% in October on TE) with chip-equipment names down 5–9% and SoftBank Group −6%; Fast Retailing rose 2.1%. JGB 10-year ≈2.77%, 30-year ≈3.84% (TE). USD/JPY ≈157.56. Markets close Tuesday for Culture Day; BoJ September minutes Thursday.
China & Hong Kong
PMIs below 50 and no stimulus. October's NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 (50.0 expected; new orders 49.4, output prices 51.7, small firms 47.5) and non-manufacturing to 49.7 with construction 48.0 (CGTN, SMM; corroborated). Shanghai closed Friday at a 52-week closing low of 3,599.02 (−1.44%) and the CSI 300 fell 1.39% to 3,985.50, a 12th straight weekly decline (TE; corroborated as to the level, weekly count single source). The Hang Seng rose 1.46% to 23,294 on Sinopec (Q3 profit +57%) and Tencent's AI launches, but southbound investors sold ≈HK$24bn in October, the most since 2021 (single source). The RatingDog manufacturing PMI lands today at 12:45 AEDT (consensus 51.6), services Wednesday. US–China: the trade truce was extended to 10 January 2027 at September's Washington visit (corroborated), so the 10 November rare-earth deadline no longer binds. CPI/PPI Monday 9 November, trade Tuesday 10 November.
Emerging markets and the Middle East
Korea's record exports, a 3.5% index fall. October exports hit $115.3bn (+93.7% y/y, chips $56.4bn, +259%) on a low holiday base (JoongAng; corroborated), but the KOSPI fell 3.48% on Friday to 5,730.74 on ₩1.62tn of foreign selling; it still rose ≈3.25% on the week (corroborated). Korea CPI Tuesday. Taiwan's TAIEX fell ≈2.5% (TSMC ≈−2%; TE, unverified). India's Sensex rose ≈0.4% to ≈74,460 (TE; unverified). Israel: the official result is due 4 November; the last partial count reported had Netanyahu's bloc on 54 seats and Eisenkot's on 49, with 61 needed (Colorado Politics, ABC; corroborated as reported, not official). Iran: Doha talks continue (§02); the IMF projects Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar contracting ≈16% this year (NPR; single source). Russia–Ukraine: Ukraine struck a Samara refinery on 30 October; Trump said sanctions on Russia's sovereign fund are not being lifted; no active ceasefire talks were found.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA, one day out
The cash rate is 4.60% and the Board decides Tuesday 3 November at 14:30 AEDT with the SMP; Bullock's press conference follows at 15:30. Friday's ASX 30-day interbank futures settled at 95.225 for November and 95.165 for December (ASX end-of-day; verified); assuming a move takes effect on 4 November, the November contract implies a post-meeting rate of ≈4.79%, or ≈78% of a 25bp hike, and December ≈94% (derived). Reported reads span ≈70–90%: centralbank.watch 70–75% (1 Nov, internally inconsistent), Newsquawk ≈79%, TE 83%, the ABC 85.6–90% and CBA ≈90% (28 Oct). All four majors call 4.85%: CBA then holds in December and February, NAB pauses, Westpac flags February risk, ANZ gives no path (savings.com.au, CBA; corroborated). The data case is the Q3 CPI (trimmed mean 1.0% q/q, monthly headline 4.3% y/y; ABS, verified) and Friday's PPI (+1.1% q/q, 3.6% y/y) and private credit (+0.6% m/m, 8.4% y/y; TE, single source). The case against is the housing market (below).
Markets: the first close above 8,900
Equities. The ASX 200 rose 16.30 points (+0.18%) to 8,908.10 on Friday (ABC, ad-hoc-news; corroborated), having traded at 8,986 in the morning, a seven-week high, before US futures turned; +1.28% on the week and ≈+1.4% in October (TE; unverified). Eight of 11 sectors rose: consumer discretionary led (JB Hi-Fi +6.2%, Wesfarmers +3–3.6%), energy followed oil (Woodside +1.8%, Santos +1.3%), and tech lagged on the global AI sell-off (Xero, NextDC lower). Coles fell 7.7% to $21.66 on a weak Q1 sales update; 4DMedical −25.6%, Catalyst Metals −24.8% (ABC; corroborated). Breadth and the sector table were not obtained. The SPI December contract settled 8,918 (+13), range 8,907–9,010 (ASX; verified); its relationship to Friday's US close is unclear (§13). Rates. ACGB 3-year ≈4.84% (−4bp) and 10-year ≈5.13% (−4bp), a first monthly fall since June of ≈26bp (TE; 10-year corroborated by XT futures ≈5.125%). Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.7040 and AUD/NZD 1.2480 (verified); ≈0.7032 late in New York (TE). TFF leveraged funds are net long 48,414 AUD contracts while the legacy non-commercial cut is net short 128,315 (CFTC, 27 Oct; both real, different universes).
Property, China and the commodity link
Housing. Cotality's October index fell 1.2% nationally, a seventh straight monthly fall (Brisbane −2.0%, Perth −1.7%, Sydney −1.6%), with three-month sales volumes ≈23% below a year earlier (leprivatebanker; national figure corroborated by a Capital Brief headline, city detail single source). Saturday's preliminary auction results by city were Sydney 56.5%, Melbourne 60.0% (Cup weekend, low volume), Brisbane 20.3%, Adelaide 37.4%, Canberra 49.7% (PropertyUpdate; single source); the official combined-capitals rate was not obtained. China link. The NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.3 with construction at 48.0 is the weakest combination for iron-ore demand since mid-year; iron ore sat at $90.71/t (TE; possibly stale), near two-year lows. LME copper cash eased to $14,449/t with a $199 backwardation and stocks of 274,000t (Westmetall; verified). Lithium carbonate fell 25% in October (TE). Gold's 3.6% fall on Friday hits the ASX gold miners at the open; energy is supported by Brent January's $113.43 settle and TTF above €100.
New Zealand
The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% by 4–3 on 28 October; Hansen called December "50-50" and TE puts December pricing at ≈76% (single source). The NZX 50 rose ≈0.6% on Friday to ≈13,797 (TE; unverified). The Q3 labour market lands Wednesday at 08:45 AEDT (unemployment prior 5.6%; employment and the labour cost index per TE, column mapping uncertain), with the GDT auction Tuesday night and the general election on Saturday 7 November (single source). NZD/USD ≈0.5630, −1.2% on the week (TE).
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈78% for 4.85% (derived) |
| CPI Q3 q/q · trimmed mean q/q | 1.3% · 1.0% | Monthly Sep 4.3% y/y · TM 3.6% | Oct monthly: late November |
| PPI Q3 q/q · y/y | 1.1% · 3.6% | 1.3% · 3.6% · cons 1.0% | Released 30 Oct (TE; single source) |
| Private credit (Sep) m/m · y/y | 0.6% · 8.4% | cons 0.5% | Released 30 Oct (TE; single source) |
| Cotality HVI (Oct) | −1.2% m/m | Sep −1.1%; 7th straight fall | Nov: 1 Dec |
| Building approvals (Sep) | — | −6.1% m/m · cons +2.1% | Today 11:30 |
| Household spending (Sep) | — | 0.0% m/m · cons 0.2% | Wed 4 Nov 11:30 |
| Trade balance (Sep) | — | A$0.495bn · cons A$1.0bn | Thu 5 Nov 11:30 |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.92 · 4.84 · 5.13% | −2.7 · −4.0 · −4bp Fri | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.7040 · 1.2480 | 0.7053 · 1.2550 (29 Oct) | Daily 16:00 |
| NZ OCR · NZ unemployment | 2.75% · 5.6% (Q2) | Held 4–3, 28 Oct | NZ Q3 labour Wed 4 Nov 08:45 · RBNZ 9 Dec |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V006: the ASX 200 closed 8,908.10 on Friday, above the 8,900 line: 1 of 2. A close above 8,900 today closes the view, at ≈+1.1% in favour of the underweight on the 9,005.9 entry; a close at or below 8,900 resets the count. The close lands after this edition and will be marked tomorrow. V031: the Nasdaq-100 closed 29,402.51 on Thursday (FRED; verified) and ≈28,384.85 on Friday (corroborated; FRED not yet posted), 2.75% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry and 8.97% below the 30,932 close line. V017: FRED HY 314bp (28 Oct) then 326bp (29 Oct), IG 89bp, CCC 1,325bp (verified); the mirror is now 21bp away and the exit 275bp. V025: the dedicated series printed 153.4bp then 159.0bp (verified), 19bp above the mirror zone. V023: the RBA table printed 1.2480 (verified), 80 pips above the stop and 120 below the profit line. V024: December expired at $117.64; January, now the only band, settled $113.43 (verified), ≈$29–32 above the band.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 159.0bp (30 Oct, verified), +5.6bp on Friday; ≈+65bp from a ≈94bp entry. France Q3 GDP −0.1% with HICP 3.8%; Lagarde raised TPI in the context of French spreads (econostream). Senate takes the social-security bill 9 Nov; Assemblée budget vote 17 Nov | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (19bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED: HY 326bp (29 Oct, +12), IG 89bp (+3), CCC 1,325bp (+18). Spreads widened on Alphabet day and the 30 Oct (Intel/Amazon) prints are not yet posted. Hyperscaler debt funding and AI-capex free-cash-flow deficits are the channel | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (275bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (21bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | 8,908.10 against 9,005.9: +1.09% in favour. First close above 8,900; Friday's US sell-off came after the ASX close. RBA hike priced; China PMIs below 50; housing −1.2% m/m | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (1 of 2; today's close decides; intraday prints do not count) |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | ≈28,384.85 on 30 Oct (corroborated): 2.75% in favour of the 29,187.55 entry. Intel −28.6%, SOX −7.2%, Amazon TTM FCF −$42.4bn, Alphabet −12.6%; 50-day below 200-day. Apple Mon, AMD Tue | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (8.97% above Friday) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2480 on the RBA 4pm table, 30 Oct (verified), +1.34% against ≈1.2315. RBA ≈78% for Tuesday (derived); RBNZ ≈76% for 9 Dec (single source); NZ labour data Wednesday | PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (80 pips; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (120 pips) |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | January settled $113.43 (30 Oct, verified); December expired at $117.64. Limpet mines and an LNG carrier hit, yet transits ≈24 in 48h; OPEC+ unchanged; Araghchi's "two days" reopening proposal; strike risk after Tuesday | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$29–32 below). The December band lapsed with expiry. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Portfolio-level read. The week turned two of the four views that relief had pushed against us: V031 is in favour and V017's spreads widened, while V006 now sits one close from closing in favour. The book remains long stress (V017, V025, V031) into the densest four days of the quarter. We would not add gross before Wednesday's midterm results, and the one condition most likely to fire this week is V006's, on today's close.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger. Scorecard: six open; 25 closed (3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch).
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 27 October (released 30 October; header verified after a cache-busted fetch). Nets are this desk's arithmetic from the raw file and were reconciled to the prior week plus the reported change. Series named on every line; flow universes are never netted.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 27 October | |||
| UST 2y · 5y · 10y | −1,357,658 · −2,077,860 · −2,227,275 | −72,110 · +39,684 · −120,051 | Shorts added at 2s and 10s into the FOMC |
| Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond | −258,257 · −150,393 · −805,828 | +60,220 · +12,364 · −1,020 | Covering in ultras and bonds |
| Six-contract Treasury total | −6,877,271 | −80,913 | Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure |
| E-mini S&P · Nasdaq-100 consolidated | −400,604 · −5,619 | −29,359 · +2,069 | Leveraged funds cut S&P longs by ≈33k before the Alphabet results |
| FX — TFF leveraged funds vs legacy non-commercial (27 October) | |||
| JPY | LF −14,630 · NC +101,591 | +8,260 · +31,713 | ⚠ Signs disagree. Legacy speculators added ≈32k yen longs, the largest FX move of the week |
| EUR · GBP | LF −71,574 · +17,195 · NC −143,894 · −79,414 | −2,734 · −6,909 · −9,370 · +1,006 | ⚠ GBP signs disagree; EUR short in both |
| AUD · NZD · CAD | LF +48,414 · −22,554 · −96,747 · NC −128,315 · −57,690 · −66,424 | LF −4,083 · −3,274 · −5,634 | ⚠ AUD signs disagree (LF long, NC short) — both real, different universes |
| CFTC — commodities, dollar and bitcoin (legacy or disaggregated, as named) | |||
| Gold (COMEX, non-commercial) · copper | +186,451 · +48,317 | −13,414 · −9,080 | Gold longs cut before Friday's 3.6% fall; still large |
| WTI (NYMEX, managed money) · DXY (ICE, NC) · CME bitcoin (NC) | +31,128 · +14,121 · +2,720 | −5,059 · −923 · +302 | Oil length modest despite a 15% October; ICE Brent COT not in CFTC data |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| ICI money funds (week to 28 Oct) | $7,901.28bn | −$43.29bn | Government −$37.2bn; institutional −$33.7bn (ICI; verified) |
| US fund flows (week to 28 Oct; provider unnamed) | Equity −$6.65bn · bonds +$2.04bn | Tech sector funds +$4.54bn | First equity outflow since 7 Oct (rallies.ai; corroborated as to direction by ICI) |
| Spot BTC ETFs (week to 30 Oct) | −$202.4m | Fri −$643.2m | Four inflow days then the largest outflow since June; ETH ETFs −$156m Fri |
| BofA Flow Show (30 Oct) | — | Not obtained. Latest found: Hartnett 23 Oct, "tactically risk-off until mid-Nov"; a Democratic sweep "not priced" | |
| Surveys, volatility, breadth and valuation | |||
| AAII (week to 28 Oct) | Bulls 37.8% · neutral 20.7% · bears 41.4% | Spread −3.6 | (AAII; verified) |
| BofA FMS (October; 2–8 Oct) | Most crowded: long semis, then short UST | Top tail risk: disorderly yields, then AI bubble | Tech overweight 37%, most since Aug 2020; 31% expected a D sweep (investingLive; corroborated). Cash level not obtained |
| Fear & Greed replica (30 Oct) | 17 — extreme fear | 11 a week ago; 37 a month ago | Eleven sessions in extreme fear; junk-demand component 7 (thetrading.tools) |
| VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call (29 Oct) | VIX/VIX3M 0.935 · 149.8 · total 0.85 | Contango day 144; SKEW 96th pct since 1990 | Spot VIX above the Nov and Dec futures settles of 29 Oct (derived); index put/call 0.95, light index hedging |
| % S&P above 200-day (30 Oct) | 61.6% | Mean 64.9% | (historyofmarket; corroborated) |
| FactSet Earnings Insight (30 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +30.2% | 60% reported: 82% beat EPS, 70% revenue | Net margin 14.9% (Q2 17.0%); Q4 guidance 28 positive / 19 negative; bottom-up target 9,327.80 (verified) |
| Sell-side (dated) | MS Wilson 7,100–7,200 then 8,000 YE (29 Oct) | Bloomberg survey avg YE 7,967 (26 Oct) | Goldman (Snider) 8,000 YE (reiteration undated). Post-midterm S&P 12-month returns positive 19 of 19 since 1950 (thetrading.tools) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET / local | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 2 November — China NPC Standing Committee opens (to 6 Nov) | ||||||
| Mon | 11:30 | Sun 19:30 | AU building approvals (Sep) m/m · Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (11:00) | +2.1% | −6.1% | L |
| Mon | 12:45 | Sun 20:45 | China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (Oct) (time unconfirmed) | 51.6 | 52.1 | M |
| Mon | day | — | BoJ full Outlook Report text | L | ||
| Mon | 19:15–20:30 | 08:15–09:30 GMT | Final manufacturing PMIs: euro area · UK | 52.4 · 52.8 (flash) | 52.9 · 51.9 | M |
| Tue | 02:00 | Mon 10:00 | US ISM manufacturing (Oct) · prices paid · construction spending | 54.7 · 77.5 | 54.5 · 77.9 | H |
| Tue | 06:00 · 07:00 | Mon 14:00 · 15:00 | Fed Senior Loan Officer survey · Treasury refunding financing estimates (time per Newsquawk/convention) | Q4 prelim $628bn | H | |
| Tue | ≈08:00 | Mon after close | Apple (first call with CEO John Ternus; rev ≈$113.4bn, EPS $1.98) · Palantir (single source) | M | ||
| Tuesday 3 November — RBA · US midterms · Japan closed (Culture Day) · Melbourne Cup (Victoria only; ASX open) | ||||||
| Tue | 10:00 | Seoul 08:00 | Korea CPI (Oct) y/y | 2.9% | 2.9% | L |
| Tue | 14:30 · 15:30 | Mon 22:30 | RBA decision + Statement on Monetary Policy · Bullock press conference | 4.85% | 4.60% | H |
| Tue | all day | Tue | US midterm elections — polls close from ≈18:00–19:00 ET (10:00–11:00 AEDT Wed) | D sweep ≈70% (Kalshi/Polymarket) | H | |
| Wed | 02:00 | Tue 10:00 | US JOLTS (Sep) · factory orders (Sep) | 7.10m · 1.1% | 7.079m · 0.1% | M |
| Wed | ≈08:00 | Tue after close | AMD (rev ≈$13.1bn) · Arista · Pfizer and Shopify pre-market | M | ||
| Wednesday 4 November — midterm results through the Sydney day · Israel official result (unverified date) | ||||||
| Wed | 08:45 | NZDT 10:45 | NZ Q3 labour market — unemployment rate (column mapping uncertain) | ≈5.5% | 5.6% | H |
| Wed | 11:30 · 12:45 | 00:30 · 01:45 UTC | AU household spending (Sep) m/m · China RatingDog services PMI | 0.2% · 51.5 | 0.0% · 51.6 | M |
| Wed | 19:30 | 09:30 CET | Riksbank decision | 2.00% (+25bp) | 1.75% | M |
| Wed | 21:00 | 10:00 GMT | Euro-area flash HICP (Oct) headline · core | 3.9% · 2.5% | 3.8% · 2.5% | H |
| Thu | 00:15 | Wed 08:15 | US ADP (Oct) | 65k | 90k | M |
| Thu | 00:30 | Wed 08:30 | Treasury quarterly refunding announcement · US trade balance (Sep) | — · −$107.6bn | — · −$105.6bn | H |
| Thu | 02:00 | Wed 10:00 | US ISM services (Oct) · prices paid | 54.8 | 54.9 · 74.0 | H |
| Thursday 5 November | ||||||
| Thu | ≈08:30 | Wed 18:30 BRT | Brazil Copom (consensus conflicts: −25bp vs hold) | — | 13.75% | M |
| Thu | 11:30 | 00:30 UTC | AU trade balance (Sep) · BoJ September minutes (10:50) | A$1.0bn | A$0.495bn | M |
| Thu | 18:00 · 20:00 | 07:00 GMT · 10:00 CET | German factory orders (Sep) · Norges Bank decision | +5.1% · hold (TE) | −10.6% · 4.50% | M |
| Thu | 21:00 | 10:00 GMT | French OAT auctions (2036–2057 lines) · euro-area PPI | M | ||
| Thu | 23:00 | 12:00 GMT | BoE decision + Monetary Policy Report (vote consensus 7–2) | 4.00% | 3.75% | H |
| Fri | 00:30 | Thu 08:30 | US initial claims · Q3 productivity / unit labour costs (prelim) | 197k · 3.1% / 1.5% | 194k · 1.4% / 1.2% | M |
| Fri | 02:00 · 06:00 | 15:00 GMT · Thu 13:00 CDMX | ECB Lagarde speaks · Banxico decision · NBP (Thu 01:00) · BNM (Thu, TE only) | hold | 6.50% | M |
| Friday 6 November — US payrolls land Saturday morning Sydney | ||||||
| Fri | 10:30 | Tokyo 08:30 | Japan cash earnings (Sep) y/y | 3.8% | 3.8% | L |
| Sat 7 | 00:30 | Fri 08:30 | US nonfarm payrolls (Oct) · unemployment · AHE m/m · y/y | +55–65k · 4.2% · 0.3% · 2.9% | +29k · 4.2% · 0.1% · 3.0% | H |
| Sat 7 | 02:00 | Fri 10:00 | UMich sentiment (Nov prelim) · 1-yr inflation expectations · NZ general election (Sat; single source) | 48.2 | 48.0 · 4.7% | H |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 9 Nov – 10 Jan | — | — | China CPI/PPI Mon 9 12:30 · French Senate takes the social-security bill Mon 9 · China trade Tue 10 14:00 · US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 (Tue 10 Nov 08:30 ET) · Veterans Day Wed 11 (bond-market closure not verified) · Bundestag budget markup Thu 12 · US PPI Sat 14 00:30 · RBA minutes Tue 17 · France Assemblée budget vote Tue 17 · US retail sales and AU wage price index Wed 18 · FOMC minutes Thu 19 06:00 · AU labour force Thu 19 11:30 · China LPR Fri 20 · BoK Thu 26 · German budget final vote Fri 27 · OPEC+ full group Sun 29 Nov · RBA Tue 8 Dec · RBNZ Wed 9 Dec 12:00 · FOMC + SEP Thu 10 Dec 06:00 · US funding to Fri 11 Dec · BoE Thu 17 Dec 23:00 · ECB Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · BoJ Fri 18 Dec · US–China truce to 10 Jan 2027 | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics calendars (prior/consensus mapping is this desk's reading of the display order), Newsquawk and Yardeni; ForexFactory failed to load. Payroll consensus spans TE 65k and Newsquawk 55k. Changes since Friday's edition: clocks — AEDT is now EST + 16h, so US 08:30 ET releases land at 00:30 AEDT the next day; the October CPI is Tuesday 10 November ET; Apple reports Monday after the close (single source).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AI-capex de-rating spreads from equities into credit | Apple Mon, AMD Tue, Qualcomm/Arm Wed; hyperscaler bond issuance; FRED HY 30 Oct onward | S&P to 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson); Nasdaq-100 through 28,000; HY wider than 340bp; Korea and Taiwan beta | V031; V017 | |
| 2 | US strike on Iran after the midterms — or a negotiated reopening | WSJ/NPR planning reports; Rubio "no decision"; Araghchi's "two days" proposal; ICE reopen ≈10:00 AEDT | Strike: Brent January through $120, diesel, term premium. Reopening: Brent toward $100, energy equities lower | V024's residual call; energy vs. consumer pairs | |
| 3 | Democratic sweep reprices tax and regulation | Tue 3 Nov; results from ≈11:00 AEDT Wed | D sweep 69.5% Kalshi · 70.5% Polymarket (13:47 ET 1 Nov) | Hartnett: sweep "not priced" and negative for earnings; FMS had 31% expecting one | Q4 index collars |
| 4 | Fed hikes 9 December after firm ISM or payrolls | ISM Tue 02:00; payrolls Sat 00:30; CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 | ≈76% (CME, 30 Oct) · 70.5% (Kalshi/Polymarket) | 2-year back through 4.70% after a 13bp rally; dollar firmer; gold lower | 2-year options |
| 5 | Disorderly long end at the refunding | Financing estimates Tue 07:00; announcement Thu 00:30 | FMS: top tail risk | Term-premium spike against −6.88m contracts of leveraged-fund Treasury shorts | Low duration; payer spreads |
| 6 | RBA hikes with a hawkish SMP into falling house prices | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 | ≈78% (ASX futures, derived) | ACGB 3-year back through 4.92%; February priced; banks up, REITs and builders down | V006; V023 |
| 7 | China slowdown without stimulus | PMI 49.3; NPC Standing Committee 2–6 Nov with no fiscal items; CPI/trade 9–10 Nov | Iron ore below $90; ASX materials; AUD crosses | Short iron ore vs copper | |
| 8 | Crypto contagion from the Binance hack | $6.3bn hack (FBI: North Korea); ETF outflow −$643m Fri | BTC below $76,000; crypto equities; liquidity in alt-coins | No view open | |
| 9 | Yen squeeze as the BoJ moves toward December | Legacy speculators +101.6k yen (CFTC 27 Oct); Takata dissent; Japan closed Tue | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto | Short-dated USD/JPY puts | |
| 10 | France: spread back through its record | Senate social-security bill 9 Nov; Assemblée budget 17 Nov; OAT auctions Thu | OAT–Bund through 174.6bp | V025 (High) | |
| 11 | Gold liquidation continues | −3.6% Friday; NC longs still +186k (27 Oct) | Gold toward $3,800; ASX gold miners | — |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | 7,500 · 7,100–7,200 (MS Wilson target zone) | 7,699 (50-day) · 7,717 (200-day) · 7,720.39 (29 Oct) · 7,745 (100-day) | MAs Investing.com as of 23 Oct (stale); below all three |
| Nasdaq-100 | 28,384.85 | 28,000 · 27,500 | 28,826 (23 Oct low) · 29,405 (50-day) · 30,181 (200-day) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes) | MAs as of 27 Oct (stale); 50-day below 200-day |
| UST 10y · 2y | 4.94% · 4.56% (par) | 4.90 · 4.50 | 5.05 (28 Oct par) · 4.67 (28 Oct) · 5.13 (21 Oct) | Official par curve |
| OAT–Bund | 159.0bp | 153.4 (29 Oct) · 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | 4.84 · 5.13% | 4.80 · 5.10 | 4.92 (28 Oct) · 5.26 | Our reading |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈101.88 · ≈1.1158 · ≈157.56 | 101.50 · ≈1.110 (29 Oct low) · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | Carried levels |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7040 · 1.2480 (RBA) | 0.6951 (CBA, carried) · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes) | ≈0.7070 · 1.2600 (V023 closes RIGHT, two closes) | RBA 4pm table is the mark |
| Brent January | $113.43 | $110.80 (29 Oct) · $106 (FinanceFeeds bear) · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $118 (30 Oct Dec high) · $120 (FinanceFeeds bull) | January is the front; continuous series gapped on the roll |
| Gold · Silver | $3,875 · $48.90 | $3,800 (FinanceFeeds bear) · $3,750 | $4,000 · ≈$4,020 (29 Oct close) | Lowest since October 2025 |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,908.10 | 8,891.80 (29 Oct) · 8,847.30 · 8,795.2 (23 Oct) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 8,900 (V006: 1 of 2 closes above) · 8,986 (30 Oct high) · 9,010 (SPI Dec high) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 89 / 326 / 1,325bp (29 Oct) | HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) | HY 338 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED; each series carries its own date |
| Bitcoin | ≈$77,980 | $76,000 · $74,000 | $79,000 (Deribit max pain) · $81,636 (28 Oct high) | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Monday weekend edition. Six research desks ran in parallel from ≈06:10 AEDT; because Friday's US close was 23 hours old, every US-close source had posted, and the AP tabulation for both Thursday and Friday was read directly. Primary reads this run: AP (29 and 30 Oct), the official Treasury par curve to 30 October, FRED (Nasdaq-100 and VIX to 29 Oct; IG, HY and CCC OAS to 29 Oct), BEA and BLS (GDP, PCE, ECI), the BoJ's 30 October statement and Outlook tables, the RBA 4pm table, the OAT–Bund dedicated series, ASX end-of-day futures settlements, Westmetall, Kitco, the CFTC files as of 27 October, ICI, AAII, FactSet's 30 October Earnings Insight and the ABS CPI release. The lead spot-checked the UK Chancellor (John Healey; multiple Budget sources) and the Nasdaq-100 Friday level (two independent sources). Every figure was retrieved on 1–2 November 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 039
(1) US closes, Thursday 29 October — material for the record. No. 039 carried Yahoo's ≈14:40 ET quote box, labelled late. AP's tabulation has the S&P 500 at 7,720.39 (−23.59, −0.3%), not ≈7,693.97 (−0.65%); the Dow 52,342.56 (−0.3%), not ≈52,179.77; the Nasdaq 26,184.72 (−1.4%), not ≈26,093.85 (−1.72%); the Russell 2000 2,859.22 (+1.0%), not ≈2,849.75. The late-session levels understated the S&P close by 26 points. No view was marked on them, as the ledger's 30 October convention requires.
(2) Nasdaq-100 and VIX, 29 October: 29,402.51 and 17.20 (FRED; verified), not obtained in No. 039.
(3) Official par curve, 29 October: 2-year 4.61%, 5-year 4.78%, 10-year 4.98%, 30-year 5.32% (verified), against vendor ≈4.65 / ≈4.98 / ≈5.32%.
(4) Oil settles, 29 October: Brent December ≈$114.88 and January $110.80 (derived from Friday's settles and changes; January ties to TE), WTI December $102.00 (corroborated), against TE vendor levels ≈$114.96 and ≈$102.4 carried.
(5) FRED: HY 314bp and CCC 1,307bp on 28 October; HY 326bp, IG 89bp and CCC 1,325bp on 29 October (verified).
(6) OAT–Bund, 29 October: 153.4bp on the dedicated series, against ≈156.5bp derived from TE in No. 039.
(7) Alphabet EPS: No. 039's $2.67 is adjusted EPS; a second source reports $2.12 including an $8.7bn equity-investment loss. Both are right on their own basis. Alphabet closed −12.6% at $283.82 on 29 October.
(8) Discharged from Friday's list: AP 29 October; Nasdaq-100 29 October; Amazon's results; ASX 200 Friday close; RBA 4pm Friday; FRED HY 28–29 October; OAT–Bund 29–30 October; Brent January and December final settles; CFTC COT as of 27 October; BoJ decision and Outlook; China PMIs; OPEC+.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Stoxx 600: TE lists 646.75 (+1.73% on the week), TE's own summary says +2.1% and Investing.com's undated page implies 640.66; shown as ≈641–647. DXY weekly: TE's table +0.07% against its text +0.2%; shown as ≈+0.1%. ASX weekly: ABC's "+1.78%" against +1.28% derived from the verified 8,795.2 prior; the derivation is used. WTI Friday change: DTN +$1.98 against +$2.12 from Dow Jones, Reuters and Oil Monitor; +$2.12 used. Brent weekly: TE's continuous −2.82% is a roll artefact (January versus December); contract-matched changes shown. Gold weekly: −3.74% (Gold Investor) against −2.96% (TE); ≈−3.0% shown. Nikkei: 63,290.11 (ad-hoc-news, TE) against ABC 63,237 and a TE item 63,154; the agreeing pair used. RBA pricing: ≈70–90% across sources; the single figure used is this desk's derivation from ASX futures (≈78%). Copom: Focus −25bp against TE hold; both shown. Microsoft capex: $39.4bn cash against $45.2bn including leases. Lagarde's exit: No. 039's 7 February 2027 (ECB announcement via Newsquawk and Euronews) is carried; one desk found an older source describing her term to October 2027. Discarded: Investing.com's undated Brent header ($109.64), and Investing.com's USD/JPY and AUD/USD pages (stale).
Single-source and unverified items
Fed speaker quotes (24/7 Wall St) · Apple's date, consensus and CEO · Intel factory-accident detail · Reddit −29% · AU PPI and private credit · Cotality city detail and auction rates · Tokyo CPI · NZ calendar values · Southbound flows · TAIEX, Sensex, Nifty, NZX 50 (TE CFD) · PBoC 30 Oct fix · Israel partial count · IMF Gulf contraction · UKMTO October count (Oil Monitor) · four-company capex compilation · US fund-flow provider · centralbank.watch ECB pricing · BNM meeting date · Polymarket/Kalshi reads (defirate relay) · Ueda's December remarks (secondary).
Not obtained
FRED Nasdaq-100 and OAS for 30 October · settled Fed Rate Monitor (stale since 27 Oct 09:25 ET) · BofA Flow Show of 30 October · October FMS cash level · TOPIX · Hang Seng Tech · ASX breadth, sector table and All Ords · Monday indicative FX and futures opens · SPI night-session close · ICE Brent COT · CoinShares weekly · ETH ETF weekly total · Deribit settlement · IG issuance volume · S&P's France review date · official auction clearance rate · Chicago PMI · SGX iron ore · Ueda's press-conference text · ANZ job ads date.
Tuesday's first verification targets
(1) ASX 200 close today (V006: 1 of 2; a close above 8,900 closes it). (2) FRED Nasdaq-100 for 30 October (V031 marked on a corroborated level). (3) FRED HY, IG, CCC for 30 October onward (V017). (4) RBA 4pm today (V023). (5) OAT–Bund 2 November (V025). (6) Brent January settle today (V024). (7) ISM, refunding estimates, Apple, settled Fed pricing, the RBA decision and SMP.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- AP via La Nación — 30 Oct tabulation · 29 Oct tabulation · Reuters via Investing.com — Friday · Yahoo/Investopedia · stockanalysis — SPY · QQQ · StockTitan — 30 Oct · StockTitan — Alphabet · cappnotes — 30 Oct close · FRED — Nasdaq-100 · FRED — VIX
- US Treasury — par yield curve · Treasury — refunding schedule · BLS — ECI · BEA — Q3 GDP · BEA — September PCE · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · 24/7 Wall St — Fed speakers · defirate — Fed odds · defirate — midterm odds · Kalshi — balance of power · Newsquawk — week in focus · Yardeni — week ahead
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · petroleum · ICE US · ICI — money funds · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · VIX term structure · SKEW · breadth · FactSet — 30 Oct · investingLive — MS Wilson · investingLive — FMS · fund flows · midterm seasonality
Rates, FX and central banks
- BoJ — 30 Oct statement · Outlook tables · ETF sales · RBA — 4pm exchange rates · centralbank.watch — RBA · BoE · ECB · savings.com.au — bank calls · cbrates — meetings · econostream — ECB speakers · OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — FX · TE — bonds · TE — CNY
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- ABC — markets live, 30 Oct · ad-hoc-news — ASX close · TE — ASX week · ASX — futures settlements 30 Oct · ABS — CPI · TE — ACGB · TE — AU calendar · Cotality October (relay) · PropertyUpdate — auctions · TE — NZX
- ad-hoc-news — Nikkei · TE — JGB · CGTN — China PMIs · SMM — PMI detail · TE — China · TE — Hang Seng · Seoul Economic Daily — KOSPI · JoongAng — Korea exports · TE — TAIEX · TE — India · Yahoo/DPA — US–China truce
Europe and geopolitics
- TE — European indices · TE — euro-area GDP · TE — German CPI · TE — euro-area HICP · Newsquawk · Sud Radio — PLFSS · France timetable · BusinessDay/Reuters — UK Budget · UK Budget tracker · Bundestag — 2027 budget
- Fox — Iran live, 1 Nov · The National — Doha · Al Jazeera · Windward — limpet mines and transits · WSJ via Siasat — post-midterm planning · NPR — planning · Israel count · Ukraine refinery strikes