Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Thursday morning: the US data and the ECB are in, and Alphabet reset the AI trade.

Alphabet's results split the AI trade: cash-burning capex sold, small caps bought. Alphabet missed on EPS ($2.67 against $3.02) and advertising, reported ≈−$9bn of free cash flow and said 2027 capex will rise "significantly" (investingLive); the shares were ≈−13% late in the session, on course for the worst day on record (Reuters, Yahoo; corroborated intraday). At ≈14:40 ET the Nasdaq was ≈−1.72% at ≈26,094 and the S&P ≈−0.65% at ≈7,694 while the Russell 2000 was ≈+0.68% (Yahoo quote box; single source, ties to AP's verified Wednesday closes). Thursday's closes and Amazon's results were not available at filing. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) marks 29,813.16 on Wednesday (FRED; verified), 2.1% against its entry and 3.75% below its close line; Thursday's move is in its favour.
The US data kept December alive without forcing it. Q3 GDP 3.4% (3.2% expected), September core PCE 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y in line, headline 3.6%, claims 194k (BEA; verified). FedWatch had a December hike at 79.6% by mid-morning, from 84.2% (Fox), and the 10-year eased to ≈4.98% (vendor) from 5.05% on Wednesday's official par row. The Fed Rate Monitor has not refreshed since its 27 October pre-decision stamp. Payrolls (Saturday 7 November AEDT) and CPI (11 November) decide December.
The ECB held at 2.50% and moved December from possible to expected; Lagarde leaves on 7 February 2027. The statement added that energy prices "pose upside risks" (verified); Lagarde said the Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate" and that the "direction of travel is quite clear", with more than 80% priced for December (InstaForex). On France she said the "solution lies at home" (corroborated). OAT–Bund printed 156.6bp for 28 October (verified), 16.6bp above the zone where V025's mirror starts counting; EUR/USD rebounded from a 2026 low near 1.11 to ≈1.116.
Home market: the ASX 200 closed 8.2 points under V006's line, and the RBA is still a hike for Tuesday. The index rose 0.50% to 8,891.80 (ABC; verified), +1.10% on the week, with the big four up ≈2%; two consecutive closes above 8,900 close V006. Pricing for 3 November eased to ≈80–88% (ASX tracker ≈82%, CBA ≈80%, TE 88%). AUD/NZD printed 1.2550 on the RBA table (verified), inside V023's pre-committed 1.2400–1.2600 band. PPI and private credit land at 11:30, the BoJ at ≈14:00.
Oil held near $115 as diplomacy and mines cancelled out, into December's expiry today. Brent December settled $115.32 on Wednesday (corroborated) and was ≈$115.0 late Thursday on TE (not a settle); a Vance letter to Iran via Qatar and a 42mb European stock release offset IRGC claims that three tankers hit mines, a UKMTO-confirmed fire off Khasab and an Iranian declaration that the Strait is closed (unverified). PortWatch counted 2 Hormuz transits on 25 October against ≈85 normally. January (≈$110–111) becomes the front on Monday and V024's January band is ≈$26–30 below. Gold fell 1.16% to $4,019.30 (Kitco 15:50 ET; verified).
Week in review for the book: one view paid, four relieved against us, none closed. HY OAS fell to 318bp on 27 October (−20bp from 23 October; FRED, verified), 13bp from V017's mirror; OAT–Bund came in 15bp; the ASX rose 1.1%; the Nasdaq-100 rose ≈3% to Wednesday. V023 is the exception, +1.9% on the RBNZ hold with its exit conditions pre-written. Scorecard: six open, 25 closed, 3 of 18 decided right (§08). Samsung's record profit drew a 4.1% fall and the KOSPI −1.24% to 5,937.66 (verified); the Fifth Plenum expelled a record 33 Central Committee members and offered no stimulus.

Overnight recap

Thursday 29 October: Sydney's banks, Seoul's Samsung miss, Beijing's purge, Frankfurt's hawkish hold, Washington's in-line core and Alphabet's worst day.

Australia and Asia: banks up, AI names down

The ASX 200 rose 0.50% to 8,891.80, a 20-session high, with the big four up 1.9–2.3% and staples and discretionary lower (ABC; verified). Q3 export prices rose 1.4% and import prices fell 1.1% (TE). The RBA's 4pm table had AUD/USD 0.7053 and AUD/NZD 1.2550 (verified). ACGBs rallied 2–3bp. In Tokyo the Nikkei rose 1.1% to 64,659.47 on Advantest's guidance upgrade and the banks (corroborated). In Seoul Samsung's record ₩107.44tn operating profit missed by a little and carried no new return policy; the shares fell 4.1% and the KOSPI 1.24% to 5,937.66 after an intraday 6,100.11 (Yonhap; verified). Alphabet's after-hours fall hit Chinese AI names: the CSI 300 fell 1.0% to 4,041.84 and the Hang Seng ≈0.6% to ≈22,959 (TE). The Fifth Plenum communiqué expelled a record 33 Central Committee members including CMC Vice-Chair Zhang Youxia and said nothing new on stimulus (§06). The PBoC fixed 551 pips weak of the estimate. India rose about 1% on lower crude (TE; unverified).

Europe: an ECB hold that read hawkish and a leaving date

The ECB held at 2.50% at 14:15 CET; Lagarde said the Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate" and that the "direction of travel is quite clear", declined to engage on France beyond "the solution lies at home", and the Bank confirmed she will step down on 7 February 2027 (§05). EUR/USD made a 2026 low just above 1.11 before the meeting and ended ≈1.116 as the dollar sold off in the US afternoon. Bund yields fell to two-month lows (Bund ≈3.36%, OAT ≈4.92%, BTP ≈4.48%; TE). Equities rose: DAX ≈+1.3% to ≈26,040, CAC ≈+1.3%, FTSE 100 +0.29% to 10,725.20, FTSE MIB +0.52% to 50,082.59 (TE; DAX and CAC derived). Euro-area economic sentiment was 97.9 against 97.2 expected; UK mortgage approvals (53.44k) and consumer credit (£1.914bn) missed (Newsquawk; verified).

United States: hot growth, in-line core, a mega-cap split

At 08:30 ET Q3 GDP printed 3.4% (3.2% expected) and September core PCE 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y, in line; headline PCE 0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y; claims 194k (BEA; verified). investingLive described the reaction as "minimal" and FedWatch's December hike probability slipped to 79.6% by 10:34 ET (Fox). The session belonged to earnings: Alphabet fell about 13% (Yahoo ≈14:40 ET; Reuters −13.2%) after missing on EPS and advertising and burning ≈$9bn of free cash flow, while Microsoft faded from a 5% after-hours gain. Software and security sold off (ServiceNow −20 to −23%, Fortinet −23 to −26%, Xerox −39% on a dividend suspension, Caterpillar −8 to −10%, Marvell −12% premarket); ADT (+33%, agreed bid at $10 a share), Crocs (+22%), Carvana (+16%), Eli Lilly (+4 to +7%), KLA and Mastercard rose (Investrade, Analytics Insight; intraday). Thursday's 16:00 ET closes could not be read at filing. At ≈14:40 ET (Yahoo quote box; single source, each level ties to AP's verified Wednesday close) the S&P 500 was ≈7,693.97 (−50.01, −0.65%), the Dow ≈52,179.77 (−0.56%), the Nasdaq ≈26,093.85 (−1.72%) and the Russell 2000 ≈2,849.75 (+0.68%); the VIX was ≈16.84. Week to date that is S&P ≈+0.9%, Nasdaq ≈+0.5%, Russell ≈+2.7%. The 10-year eased to ≈4.98% and the 2-year to ≈4.65% (TE vendor), gold fell 1.16% to $4,019.30 (Kitco 15:50 ET; verified) and the dollar index slipped to ≈102.0. The 7-year auction cleared at 4.894%.

After the bell, the Gulf and the weekend calendar

Amazon (consensus EPS ≈$1.97, revenue ≈$202.3bn, AWS ≈$45.7bn; Bloomberg via AOL) reported after the bell; its results and the after-hours reaction were not available at filing. Intel, Coinbase, Roblox and Strategy also reported. Gulf: the IRGC said three tankers hit mines on an unauthorised southern route; UKMTO confirmed a vessel on fire about 9nm north of Khasab; Iranian state media then declared the Strait closed until Iran's conditions are met (unverified). The WSJ reported a Vance letter to Iran's Rezaei via Qatar alongside a separate report that Gulf states were told to prepare for renewed US action after the midterms. France's finance minister announced a 42mb European stock release over three months. OPEC+ meets Sunday.

Friday open

No SPI overnight figure or ABC Friday blog was available at filing. With US large caps ≈0.6% lower late, small caps higher, the 10-year back below 5%, Brent steady and AUD/USD ≈0.704 in New York, our inference is a soft open led lower by technology and lithium names, with banks supported by Tuesday's priced hike. The ASX needs +0.09% on the close to start V006's two-close count.

Market dashboard

Thursday 29 October; 1w is the change since Friday 23 October. US equity levels are late-session (≈14:40 ET), not closes.

Week to Thursday 29 October: cross-asset change

Percent change from Friday 23 October's close. "≈" marks a derived, vendor, late-session or single-source level (§13): US equities are ≈14:40 ET quote-box levels, Brent and WTI December are late vendor levels, copper is to 28 October. FX as the pair moved; AUD/USD and AUD/NZD on the RBA 4pm table. Hover a bar for the exact value.

Up on the weekDown on the week

Equities	Close	1d	1w	Note
S&P 500	≈7,693.97 (late)	≈−0.65%	≈+0.92%	Yahoo quote box ≈14:40 ET, single source; ties to AP's verified 7,743.98 (28 Oct) less 50.01. Close not obtained. Reuters 13:49 ET 7,695.25
Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp.	≈52,179.77 · ≈26,093.85 (late)	≈−0.56% · ≈−1.72%	≈−0.07% · ≈+0.53%	Yahoo ≈14:40 ET; both tie to AP's Wednesday closes (52,475.10 · 26,549.85). Reuters' intraday figures do not tie (§13)
Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100	≈2,849.75 (late) · 29,813.16 (28 Oct)	≈+0.68% · +0.54% (28 Oct)	≈+2.66% · ≈+2.95% (to Wed)	Russell ties to AP's 2,830.51. NDX FRED (verified); 29 Oct close not obtained (≈−1% midday, unverified)
VIX	≈16.84 (late) · 16.91 (28 Oct)	≈−0.4%	≈−13%	Wednesday close FRED (verified); 19.45 on 23 Oct. SKEW 148.7
Stoxx 600 · DAX	≈649.10 · ≈26,040	≈+0.77% · ≈+1.31%	≈+2.10% · ≈+3.53%	TE cross-table (Stoxx unverified); DAX derived from dpa's 25,704.02 plus TE's +336. Fourth straight DAX gain
FTSE 100 · CAC 40	10,725.20 · ≈7,986	+0.29% · ≈+1.26%	+0.33% · ≈+2.61%	FTSE TE, arithmetic ties (corroborated). CAC derived from 7,886.96
FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI	50,082.59 · — · —	+0.52% · — · —	+3.14% · — · —	MIB TE, ties to 49,824.30. IBEX conflicting (three TE prints); SMI not obtained
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	64,659.47 · 4,003.28	+1.10% · +0.3%	+3.14% · —	Nikkei corroborated (IBTimes, TE +705.28); official archive unavailable. TOPIX single source
Shanghai · CSI 300	≈3,651 · 4,041.84	≈−0.82% · −1.03%	≈−1.06% · ≈−1.54%	TE, single source; second Shanghai print 3,645. AI names led lower
Hang Seng · HS Tech	≈22,959 · —	≈−0.59% · —	≈−0.58%	TE article, ties to 23,095. HS Tech not obtained
KOSPI · TAIEX	5,937.66 · ≈46,368	−1.24% · ≈−1.42%	≈+6.98% · —	KOSPI verified (Yonhap; intraday high 6,100.11). TAIEX TE CFD, unverified
Sensex · Nifty 50	≈74,151 · ≈22,937	≈+1.24% · ≈+1.05%	≈+1.4% · —	TE, unverified (alternative Sensex print 74,092)
S&P/ASX 200	8,891.80	+0.50%	+1.10%	Verified (ABC); Wednesday 8,847.30 (TE table, ties). 8.2 points below V006's line. SPI overnight not obtained
NZX 50	—	—	—	Not obtained (TE fields conflict)

Rates & credit	Level	1d	1w	Note
UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 28 Oct	4.67 · 4.85 · 5.05 · 5.37%	−3 · +3 · +6 · +7bp	−2 · +3 · +5 · +4bp	Verified (Treasury par). FOMC-day bear steepener. 29 Oct row posts ≈09:00 AEDT
UST 2y · 10y · 30y, 29 Oct (vendor)	≈4.65 · ≈4.98 · ≈5.32%	≈−3 to −6bp	—	TE, no timestamp; Yahoo 10y 4.989% at ≈15:13 ET. Provisional, never a trigger
2s10s · 5s30s (par, 28 Oct)	38 · 52bp	+9 · +4bp	+7 · +1bp	Derived from the verified par rows
Gilt 10y · 30y	≈5.33 · ≈5.73%	≈−2 · ≈+1bp	≈−4bp · —	TE
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	3.357 · 4.922 · 4.48%	−2.3 · −1.8 · −4bp	+2 · −12 · −11bp	TE; Bund at a two-month low after the ECB
OAT–Bund (dedicated series)	156.6bp (28 Oct)	−2.8bp	−15.2bp	Verified (stamped 17:35; OAT 4.94 / Bund 3.37). 29 Oct ≈156.5bp derived from TE (not the mark). BTP–Bund ≈112bp
JGB 10y · 30y	2.84 · 3.90%	+1 · +1.5bp	+4bp · —	TE; 2-year auction 1.964%
ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y	4.95 · 4.88 · 5.18%	−2.5 · −3 · −2bp	+5 · +3 · 0bp	TE, single source; weekly vs No. 035's 23 Oct levels
Canada 10y	3.853%	−0.7bp	0bp	TE
US IG · HY · CCC OAS	86 (28 Oct) · 318 (27 Oct) · 1,321 (27 Oct)	−2 · −12 · −24bp	−5 · −20 · −35bp	Verified (FRED; vs 23 Oct 91 · 338 · 1,356). HY 13bp from V017's mirror

FX	Thu close	1d	1w	Note
DXY	≈102.04	≈−0.15%	≈+0.23%	TE, no timestamp; its own summary says "≈102.2" (conflict, §13)
EUR/USD · GBP/USD	≈1.1159 · ≈1.333	≈0.0%	≈−0.38% · ≈−0.4%	EUR 2026 low just above 1.11 pre-ECB, 1.1163 in the US afternoon (Pound Sterling Live)
USD/JPY	≈157.9	≈0.0%	≈+0.64%	TE 157.87–157.95; Investing.com's 157.47 conflicts and looks cached (§13)
AUD/USD	0.7053 (RBA) · ≈0.7038 (NY)	+0.27% (RBA)	+0.67% (RBA, vs 0.7006)	RBA 4pm verified. NY TE, no timestamp. Bases not blended
AUD/NZD · NZD/USD	1.2550 (RBA) · ≈0.5629	+0.06% (RBA)	+1.92% (RBA, vs 1.2313)	RBA 4pm verified. NY cross ≈1.249–1.254 (derived)
USD/CAD · USD/CHF	≈1.399 · ≈0.828	≈−0.1%	≈−0.1% · ≈+0.4%	TE snapshots
USD/CNY · fix	≈6.658 · 6.7147	≈−0.05%	≈−0.2%	Fix ≈551 pips weak of 6.6596 (verified)
USD/MXN · USD/BRL	≈18.64–18.85 · ≈5.35–5.43	two TE snapshots	—	Late snapshot shows risk-off (+1.2% · +1.5%); single source
USD/INR · USD/KRW	≈95.2 · 1,336.8	—	≈0.0% · ≈+1.0%	KRW Seoul 15:30 (Yonhap)

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	1w	Note
Brent DECEMBER	≈$114.96 · settle 28 Oct $115.32	≈−0.3%	≈−1.5%	29 Oct TE CFD (prior ties to $115.32); not a settle. 28 Oct settle corroborated (+1.3%). Expires today
Brent JANUARY	≈$110.2–111.6	—	—	28 Oct $111.64 "previous close" (single source); 29 Oct ≈$110.19 Asia (FXEmpire). Dec–Jan ≈$3.7–4.6 (§13)
WTI DECEMBER	≈$102.4 · settle 28 Oct $102.78	≈−0.4%	≈−0.9%	oilprice 14:10 and TE agree (corroborated, not a settle)
Henry Hub · TTF	$2.93 · €98.05	≈−3.3% · −2.3%	≈+11% · ≈+4.5%	TE, single source. EIA storage +80bcf
Gold (spot)	$4,019.30	−1.16%	+0.61%	Verified (Kitco bid 15:50 ET; range 4,004.50–4,069.90)
Silver · Platinum	$52.13 · $1,483.80	−3.19% · −3.6%	≈−3.2% · ≈−5.0%	Silver Kitco 15:51 ET (verified); platinum TE
Copper LME cash · COMEX	$14,675.50/t (28 Oct) · ≈$6.58/lb	+0.34% · ≈−1.0%	+1.81% (LME)	Westmetall (verified): ≈$191 backwardation, stocks 271,450t
Iron ore 62% · aluminium	$90.71 · $3,070	0.0% · −0.3%	−0.1% · +0.8%	TE, single source
Bitcoin	≈$80,410	≈−1.04%	≈−0.2%	CoinDesk 16:04 ET; CoinGecko $80,796 (corroborated)
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,335 · $100.3 · $1.28 · $743	—	≈−0.8 · −1.4 · −1.5 · +0.1%	CoinGecko, no timestamp. Total cap $2.81tn; BTC dominance 57.9%
Spot ETF flows · Deribit	BTC +$137.3m (28 Oct)	ETH −$21.4m	—	Three straight BTC inflow days (corroborated). Expiry today 19:00 AEDT: ≈$11bn BTC, max pain $78,000

Conventions: 1d is Thursday 29 October; 1w is the change since Friday 23 October's close (No. 035's verified priors), "≈" where derived or vendor. US equity levels are Yahoo's ≈14:40 ET quote box, single source, because no 16:00 ET close could be read at filing; they tie arithmetically to AP's verified Wednesday closes. Treasury levels are the official par row for 28 October; Thursday's vendor yields are provisional. FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is New York (TE, no timestamp) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two bases are never blended. "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.

What is driving markets

One new theme (Alphabet's cash burn), three running themes carried, one resolved: the RBNZ blink of No. 038 is now a pricing question for 9 December.

1. AI capex: Alphabet's cash burn breaks the "capex is fine if growth is fine" trade

Alphabet reported after Wednesday's close: revenue ≈$127.6bn against ≈$128.2bn expected, adjusted EPS $2.67 against $3.02, advertising ≈$82bn against $83.4bn, Cloud revenue $30.7bn (more than double a year earlier) with a ≈$560bn backlog, and free cash flow of about −$9bn, a second quarter of cash burn, with 2026 capex guided to $195–205bn and the CFO saying 2027 capex will rise "significantly" (investingLive; single source for the detail). The shares were down about 13% late on Thursday (Yahoo ≈14:40 ET; Reuters −13.2%; the close was not obtained); AP called it on track for the worst day on record early in the session and NBC put the value lost above $500bn (corroborated intraday). Microsoft, which beat with Azure +48% (now corroborated by two sources) and guided to $170bn of FY27 capex while staying cash-flow positive (investingLive), faded from +5% after hours to about −1% by mid-morning (Investrade). At ≈14:40 ET the Nasdaq Composite was ≈−1.7% while the Russell 2000 was ≈+0.7%, a split of more than two percentage points (Yahoo; single source). Software and security names sold hard (ServiceNow −20 to −23%, Fortinet −23 to −26%); pharma and small caps led. In Asia the read-across was immediate: Chinese AI names fell 8–13% and Samsung's record profit drew a 4% fall (§06). Amazon was ≈−3.9% before reporting after the close (Reuters, intraday); its results were not available at filing.

So whatThe market is now separating capex that generates cash (Microsoft) from capex that consumes it (Alphabet), and is paying small caps over mega-caps for the first time in this run. That is the scenario V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) exists for, but the mark has not moved enough to pay: see §08. It is also the channel V017 depends on, hyperscaler debt funding, and HY spreads have so far tightened through it. The FMS's most crowded long was semis (45%); BofA's clients sold a record $14.8bn of single stocks in the week to ≈23 October.

2. The Fed: core in line, growth hot, December still the base case

Q3 GDP rose 3.4% annualised against 3.2% expected, with Q2 revised to 2.2%; real final sales to private domestic purchasers +4.9% (BEA; verified). September PCE prices rose 0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y (August 3.4%) and core 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, both in line (BEA; verified; investingLive's "core +0.5%" headline is wrong). Initial claims were 194k against 199k (corroborated). The in-line core took the edge off: CME FedWatch had a December hike at 79.6% at 10:34 ET, from 84.2% the day before (Fox Business; corroborated by Desk 6's 81.3% post-PCE), and the 10-year fell ≈5bp to ≈4.98% on vendor screens (TE; Yahoo 4.989% at ≈15:13 ET) after the official 28 October par row printed 5.05% (Treasury; verified). The 7-year auction cleared at 4.894% (investingLive headline; bid-to-cover not obtained). The Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor was still stamped "Oct 27, 2026 09:25AM EDT" at ≈16:05 ET Thursday, before the FOMC; §05 charts that read, labelled.

So whatNothing in Thursday's data argues against a December hike: growth is above trend, headline PCE accelerated and core held at 3.1%. The front end has nonetheless stopped selling off, which suggests the market is leaving December at roughly four-in-five and waiting for payrolls (Saturday 7 November AEDT) and October CPI (11 November). The refunding on Wednesday 4 November is the near-term risk to the 10-year back above 5%.

3. France and the ECB: "the solution lies at home", and a President with a leaving date

The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 156.6bp for 28 October (OAT 4.94%, Bund 3.37%; ideal-investisseur, stamped 17:35; verified), after 159.4bp on the 27th and 156.4bp on the 26th; Thursday's TE closes give ≈156.5bp (OAT 4.922%, Bund 3.357%; derived, not the mark). BTP–Bund is ≈112bp (derived). At the ECB press conference Lagarde declined to comment on France directly, said the "primary and first solution lies at home in France" and that specific criteria apply to TPI, which reads as playing down any imminent use (Euronews; corroborated); ING estimates the sell-off since September has done the work of ≈50bp of hikes in France and ≈25bp in Germany. Bund yields fell to two-month lows after the meeting (TE). Lagarde's early exit on 7 February 2027 is linked in reports to France's April 2027 election, with Hernández de Cos and Knot named as front-runners (Euronews, Pound Sterling Live).

So whatLagarde's answer was the one V025 needed: no backstop on offer, the problem returned to Paris. But the spread has compressed 18bp from its 174.6bp record in a week and sits 16.6bp above the 140bp level where V025's pre-committed mirror starts counting. A succession contest with a French angle is a new, slow-moving source of term premium in OATs; the Senate's social-security vote (9 November) and S&P (27 November) are the dated risks.

4. Oil: mines, a closure declaration and a European stock release into expiry

Brent December settled $115.32 on Wednesday (+1.3%; The National, TE previous; corroborated) and WTI December $102.78 (+2.9%). On Thursday Brent eased on diplomacy, to ≈$114.96 on TE's late print (not a settle; the ICE settle was not obtained), after the WSJ reported that Vice-President Vance had written to Iran's Mohsen Rezaei through Qatari mediators to revive talks; Trump said the letter was about medical supplies (corroborated). Later on Thursday the IRGC said three tankers had hit mines on an "unauthorised" southern route without naming them; UKMTO confirmed one vessel on fire about 9nm north of Khasab, Oman, cause undetermined (verified as a UKMTO incident), and Iranian state media declared the Strait closed until its conditions are met (unverified). IMF PortWatch counted 2 transits on 25 October against about 85 a day normally (corroborated). France's finance minister said Europe will release 42mb over three months, much of it diesel (The National, Newsquawk; corroborated). The EIA crude draw was 1.9mb with gasoline +3.9mb. OPEC+ (seven producers) meets Sunday; UBS sees Brent ≈$110 at year-end.

So whatThe physical picture has not changed: transits are near zero and the military calendar points to after Tuesday's midterms. December's expiry today hands the front to January, which traded ≈$110.5–111.6 (single source), so the continuous Brent series will gap down by the roll (≈$3.7–4.6) without any change in fundamentals. V024's January band ($81.51–84.51) is about $26–29 away and becomes the only band from Monday.

5. Australia: the week set up Tuesday, and the ASX stopped eight points short

The week's two home-market questions resolved in one morning: Q3 trimmed mean 1.0% q/q and 3.7% y/y, and the RBNZ's 4–3 hold (No. 038, themes 1 and 2; the RBNZ theme is resolved and retired). Since then the RBA pricing has drifted from ≈88–90% to ≈80–85% (ASX rate tracker ≈82%, CBA ≈80% on Thursday afternoon), the ACGB 2-year has given back 2.5bp to 4.95%, and the ASX 200 has risen two days running to 8,891.80 (+1.10% on the week from 8,795.2), led by banks. AUD/NZD held its gain at 1.2550 on the RBA table.

So whatA hike on Tuesday is priced, so the SMP's trimmed-mean path decides whether February stays live. Banks rallying into a hike is consistent with margin expectations rather than growth; V006's 8,900 line is now 8.2 points away and two consecutive closes above it close the view (§08).

Central bank watch

The ECB held hawkishly and named a leaving date; the BoJ decides at ≈14:00 today; the RBA, Riksbank, Copom, Norges and BoE follow next week.

Fed funds pricing by meeting

Current target range 3.75–4.00% (held 28 Oct, 10–2). Last full meeting-by-meeting read available: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor stamped "Oct 27, 2026 09:25AM EDT", pre-decision, still unchanged at ≈16:05 ET Thursday. Post-data CME FedWatch had a December hike at 79.6% at 10:34 ET Thursday (Fox; single point, not charted). The settled refresh posts after this edition.

3.75–4.00% (hold)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)4.50% or higher (+75bp or more)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp)	Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP	Dec +25bp 79.6% (CME FedWatch via Fox, 10:34 ET 29 Oct, from 84.2%). Investing 27 Oct 09:25 ET (stale, pre-decision): Dec +25bp 73.4%, +50bp 8.2%; Jan 4.00–4.25% 51.1%, 4.25–4.50% 34.6%	Hawkish hold
ECB	DFR 2.50%	Held 29 Oct; Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate"	Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · presser 00:45	December hike >80% (InstaForex 15:53 UTC); two hikes fully priced by April 2027 (TE). Lagarde leaves 7 Feb 2027	Hawkish hold
BoJ	1.25%	+25bp 18 Sep, 7–2	Today ≈14:00 + Outlook Report · then Fri 18 Dec	0% of Bloomberg survey for October; 83% expect December (22 Oct); ING: ≈80% priced for December. AOL/Reuters wrap: not fully priced until January (conflict, §13)	Hawkish hold
RBA	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30	≈80–88% for 4.85% (TE 88%, BBH 85%, ASX tracker ≈82%, CBA ≈80% on 29 Oct; centralbank.watch 74–79%). All big four call a hike	Hike priced
RBNZ	2.75%	Held 28 Oct, 4–3 (Silk, Gourley, Conway for +25bp)	Wed 9 Dec 12:00 + MPS	≈80% for December (single source); Westpac NZ calls +25bp, peak 4% by Sep 2027	Tightening bias, delayed
BoE	3.75%	Held Sep, 6–3	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	+24.4bp, 97.6% for 4.00% (centralbank.watch, 28 Oct); 17 Dec +12.3bp; ≈121bp over nine meetings	Hike priced
BoC	2.50%	+25bp 28 Oct	Thu 10 Dec 01:45	≈45% for December; second hike priced by January (28 Oct, carried)	Hiking, careful
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Held 20 Oct	LPR Fri 20 Nov	29 Oct fix 6.7147 vs 6.6596 estimate, ≈551 pips weak (verified)	Leaning against CNY
Riksbank · Norges	1.75% · 4.50%	Riks held 24 Sep · Norges +25bp 24 Sep	Riks Wed 4 Nov 19:30 · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00	Riksbank hike ≈80% (single source)	Hawkish
BCB · Banxico	13.75% · 6.50%	BCB −25bp 16 Sep · Banxico held 24 Sep	Copom Thu 5 Nov ≈08:30 · Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00	Polymarket: Copom hold 59.6%, Banxico hold 86% (26 Oct, thin books; carried)	Watch BCB
RBI · BoK · SNB	5.50% · 3.00% · 0.00%	RBI +25bp Oct · BoK held 22 Oct	BoK 26 Nov · RBI 4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec	Not refreshed	Mixed

ECB read-out. The statement kept every hawkish marker from September and added one: energy now "pose[s] upside risks to the inflation outlook", with energy inflation at 18.9% and running above the staff path; wages show no material response "at this stage" (verified). The Q&A moved December from likely to expected ("the direction of travel is quite clear"), and ING's Brzeski called a December hike "clearly in the offing"; DNB Carnegie sees 2.75% in December and 3.00% in March, Deutsche Bank sees December as the last move (corroborated). On TPI Lagarde was deliberately unhelpful to France. The announcement that she leaves on 7 February 2027 makes the March 2027 meeting the first under a new President.

BoJ today. The questions are the Outlook Report's FY2027–28 core CPI forecasts (July: 2.6% and 2.2%), whether the Bank says underlying inflation is at 2% (Ueda said "quite close" on 19 October), and whether Takata or Koeda dissents for a hike (Koeda said on 15 October the Bank should not be "overly cautious"). The full Outlook text publishes Monday 2 November.

Regional briefs

United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan, China and Hong Kong, emerging markets and Israel.

United States

Growth above trend, core on target, mega-caps split. Q3 GDP 3.4% annualised with current-dollar GDP +5.6% and Q2 revised to 2.2%; September real consumption barely grew (+$2.6bn) on income +0.2% and spending +0.5% (BEA; verified). Core PCE 3.1% y/y keeps the Fed's target variable more than a point above 2% with two FOMC voters already voting to hike. Quarterly refunding: financing estimates Monday 2 November 15:00 ET, the announcement Wednesday 4 November 08:30 ET (Treasury; verified). Midterms Tuesday: Polymarket's balance-of-power market has a Democratic sweep at 67%, Republican Senate with Democratic House 28%, Republican sweep 7% (no timestamp; corroborated by CNBC's "prediction markets favour a Democratic sweep"). Government funding runs to 11 December. Corporate: Alphabet ≈−13% and Microsoft ≈−0.6% late Thursday after opposite reactions to their capex plans; Amazon was ≈−3.9% before reporting after the close (Reuters intraday), and its results were not available at filing. Intel, Coinbase, Roblox, Strategy and Digital Realty also reported after the bell (Yahoo calendar); Apple's date was not confirmed. FedEx raised guidance; Ford flagged a ≈$2bn 2027 cost headwind.

Euro area

A hawkish hold, a lame-duck President, and equities higher anyway. The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.50% (MRO 2.65%, MLF 2.90%), said energy prices "pose upside risks to the inflation outlook", called underlying inflation "broadly stable", kept "meeting-by-meeting" and "not pre-committing", and restated that TPI "is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics" (ECB press release and statement; verified). September HICP was 3.8% with energy 18.9%. In the Q&A Lagarde said the Council "debated whether a hike was appropriate" and that "unless there were major developments, the direction of travel is quite clear"; on France, the "primary and first solution lies at home" (Reuters via Kuwait Times, Euronews; corroborated). The ECB confirmed Lagarde steps down on 7 February 2027, about nine months early (Newsquawk, Euronews; corroborated). A December hike is priced at more than 80% (InstaForex 15:53 UTC). EUR/USD made a 2026 low just above 1.11 before the decision and recovered to ≈1.1163 on the afternoon dollar sell-off (Pound Sterling Live; corroborated). Equities rose: the DAX ≈+1.3% to ≈26,040, a fourth straight gain (TE; derived against dpa's 25,704.02), the CAC ≈+1.3% to ≈7,986 (derived), the FTSE MIB +0.52% to 50,082.59 (TE; arithmetic ties) despite a bank-tax plan in Italy's 2027 budget, and the Stoxx 600 ≈+0.8% to ≈649.1 (TE cross-table; unverified). Economic sentiment 97.9 (97.2 expected). Today: Q3 flash GDP 21:00 AEDT (consensus 0.2% q/q from 0.6%) and German October CPI at midnight (3.0% expected from 3.3%).

United Kingdom

The day after the Budget was quiet. The FTSE 100 rose 30.70 points (+0.29%) to 10,725.20 (TE; arithmetic ties), Shell up on its buyback while Haleon fell about 15% and Lloyds about 5%. The gilt 10-year eased ≈2bp to ≈5.33% and the 30-year was ≈5.73% (TE). September mortgage approvals were 53.44k (54k expected) and consumer credit £1.914bn (£2.2bn), both soft (BoE via Newsquawk; verified). The BoE decides Thursday 5 November at 23:00 AEDT with the Monetary Policy Report; centralbank.watch had 24.4bp priced, a 97.6% probability of a hike to 4.00% (28 Oct; corroborated as "almost fully priced"). Nationwide house prices and the DMP survey land today.

Japan

Advantest and the banks, into the BoJ. The Nikkei 225 rose 705.28 points (+1.1%) to 64,659.47 (IBTimes; TE header agrees; corroborated, official archive unavailable), its third straight gain and +3.1% on the week; TOPIX +0.3% to 4,003.28 (single source). Advantest rose 6% after lifting its full-year operating-profit forecast; Mizuho +3.3%, MUFG +2.6%, Tokyo Electron +2.4%; Hitachi fell 9.8% despite raising guidance. JGB 10-year 2.84% (+1bp), 30-year 3.90% (TE); the 2-year auction cleared at 1.964%. USD/JPY ≈157.9. The BoJ (1.25%) decides today: 0% of the Bloomberg survey expect a move, 83% expect 18 December (22 Oct), and ING reads the market at ≈80% for December and previews a "hawkish hold" with a possible Takata dissent and FY27–28 core CPI forecasts above 2% (investingLive, ING; verified as reported). Tokyo October CPI at 10:30 AEDT is expected at 2.7% headline and core, 2.8% core-core (Mace News).

China & Hong Kong

The Plenum purged the military top and offered nothing for the economy; Alphabet's miss hit Chinese AI names. Shanghai fell ≈0.8% to ≈3,651 (TE; a second TE item has 3,645, so the two-decimal close is unverified), the CSI 300 −1.03% to 4,041.84 and Shenzhen −2.9%, with Moore Threads −13% intraday, Eoptolink −11% and Zhongji Innolight −8.5%; the Hang Seng fell ≈0.6% to ≈22,959 with SMIC −6.2%, Lenovo −7.1% and Tencent −2.8%, while PetroChina's Q3 profit rose 21.6% (TE; single source). The Fifth Plenum communiqué (Xinhua, 29 Oct) confirmed 34 Central Committee disciplinary cases and a record 33 expulsions, 16 of them military, including Central Military Commission Vice-Chair Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli; CMC Vice-Chair Zhang Shengmin joins the Politburo; the 21st Party Congress is set for the second half of 2027. The economic language was boilerplate ("make full use of macroeconomic policies, tap domestic demand") with no new stimulus signal (Tracking People's Daily, SBS; corroborated). The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7147 against a 6.6596 estimate, about 551 pips weak, the largest gap this month (investingLive; verified). Official PMIs Saturday 12:30 AEDT.

Emerging markets and Israel

Samsung's record wasn't enough. Samsung reported record Q3 operating profit of ₩107.44tn (+783% y/y) on revenue of ₩195.25tn, both slightly below estimates and with no update on shareholder returns; the shares fell 4.13% to ₩232,000 while SK hynix rose 2.62% (Korea Herald/Yonhap; verified; TE's −0.62% for Samsung conflicts and is not used). The KOSPI fell 1.24% to 5,937.66 after touching 6,100.11 (verified), still ≈+7% on the week; foreigners bought ₩76.2bn net and the won was ₩1,336.8. Taiwan's TAIEX fell ≈1.4% to ≈46,368 (TE CFD; unverified); TSMC −0.4%. India rallied on softer crude: Sensex ≈+1.24% to ≈74,151, Nifty ≈+1.05% to ≈22,937 (TE; unverified), Adani Ports +5.2%. Israel: the official result is due 4 November and the President must task a candidate by 11 November; the latest reported count (over 70%) had Netanyahu's bloc on 53 seats and Eisenkot's on 48 (Israel Hayom; corroborated as reported, not official). Russia–Ukraine: nothing dated 29 October was found; the US 60-day waiver of Graham Act secondary sanctions from 16 October lapses around mid-December (derived from Kyiv Post).

Australia & New Zealand

The ASX finished 8.2 points under V006's line; the RBA meets Tuesday with a hike still the large majority of pricing.

The RBA, four days out

The cash rate is 4.60% and the Board decides Tuesday 3 November at 14:30 AEDT with the Statement on Monetary Policy (presser 15:30). Pricing for a 25bp hike to 4.85% eased a little on Thursday after the CPI-day jump: TE 88% (28 Oct), the ASX rate tracker ≈82%, BBH/futures 85%, CBA's note ≈80% at 16:59 Thursday, and centralbank.watch 74–79% on its 29 October stamp (corroborated as a range; Desk 2 and Desk 4). We carry ≈80–88%. All four majors call 4.85%; CBA calls it an "insurance hike" followed by holds and Westpac flags February as the risk (Aussie; corroborated). No RBA speech was found this week; the Senate Estimates appearance on 28 October was not retrieved in detail. Data on Thursday: Q3 export prices +1.4% q/q and import prices −1.1% q/q (TE; the import figure is single source). Today at 11:30: Q3 PPI (prior 1.3% q/q, 3.6% y/y; consensus ≈1.0% q/q) and September private-sector credit (prior 0.6% m/m, 8.4% y/y; consensus 0.5%) (TE calendar; column mapping not labelled).

Markets: banks up, retailers down, eight points short

Equities. The ASX 200 rose 44.50 points (+0.50%) to 8,891.80, a 20-session high (ABC markets live; verified to the decimal, TE's "rose 45 points to 8,892" agrees). Wednesday's close is now confirmed at 8,847.30 (TE table; 8,891.80 − 44.50 ties). Financials led, with the big four up 1.9–2.3%, Bendigo +2.5%, Charter Hall +3.3% and Lynas +4.2% on Q1 revenue up 54.9%; staples and discretionary fell, Wesfarmers −4.0% and Woolworths −3.3%; Mesoblast +22.9% and IperionX +15.7% were the top performers; Champion Iron fell about 15% intraday and lithium names sold off (PLS −7.5%, Liontown −7.1% at midday) (ABC, TE; corroborated). JB Hi-Fi's Q1 total sales fell 0.4%. TE's 8,903.30 quote is a CFD print and is not used. Rates. ACGB 2-year 4.95% (−2.5bp), 3-year 4.88% (−3bp), 10-year 5.18% (−2bp) (TE; single source). Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.7053 and AUD/NZD 1.2550 (verified); AUD/USD touched ≈0.7070 in Asia and was ≈0.7036 late in New York (TE). Legacy CFTC speculators were net short 127,292 AUD contracts as of 20 October, adding into the RBA (verified).

China and the commodity link

Iron ore 62% was $90.71/t on 29 October, unchanged on the day and −6.1% over a month (TE; single source), still in the two-year-low zone. LME copper cash rose to $14,675.50/t on 28 October with a ≈$191 cash-to-three-month backwardation and stocks of 271,450t (Westmetall; verified). Lithium fell ≈4% on TE's carbonate series and the Australian lithium names followed. The Fifth Plenum communiqué had no stimulus signal (§06), so Saturday's official PMIs (manufacturing prior 50.1, consensus ≈50.0) are the next China input for the miners. BHP fell 0.9% on Thursday.

New Zealand

The day after the RBNZ's 4–3 hold, ANZ business confidence was 51.9 (prior 51.5) and ANZ–Roy Morgan consumer confidence 97.6 (prior 97.4) (TE; single source). Westpac NZ expects a 25bp hike on 9 December with the MPS and a 4% peak by September 2027 (ActionForex/Westpac); December pricing is reported at ≈80% (single source). The NZX 50 close for Thursday was not obtained. Q3 labour data land Wednesday 4 November; the general election is Saturday 7 November.

Australia & NZ — key data trail	Latest	Prior / context	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈80–88% for 4.85%
CPI Q3 q/q · trimmed mean q/q · TM y/y	1.3% · 1.0% · 3.7%	RBA Aug fcst 0.8% / 3.4%	Q4: late January
Monthly CPI (Sep) y/y · TM · WM	4.3% · 3.6% · 3.4%	Aug 4.0%	Oct: late November
Export · import prices Q3 q/q	+1.4% · −1.1%	1.1% · 5.7%	Released 29 Oct (TE; import single source)
PPI Q3 q/q · y/y	—	1.3% · 3.6% · cons ≈1.0% q/q	Today 11:30
Private-sector credit (Sep) m/m · y/y	—	0.6% · 8.4% · cons 0.5% m/m	Today 11:30
Building approvals (Sep) · Cotality HVI (Oct)	—	−6.1% m/m · −1.1% m/m	Mon 2 Nov 11:30 · Mon 2 Nov
Trade balance (Sep)	—	A$0.495bn · cons A$0.7bn	Thu 5 Nov 11:30
ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y	4.95 · 4.88 · 5.18%	−2.5 · −3 · −2bp on Thursday	—
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm)	0.7053 · 1.2550	0.7034 · 1.2543 (28 Oct)	Daily 16:00
NZ OCR	2.75%	Held 4–3, 28 Oct	Wed 9 Dec 12:00 (MPS)

House views & tactical framework

Six open, none closed, no trigger fired. Friday scorecard below: the week's two scheduled events paid V023, and the rest of the tape moved against four of the six views.

What moved. V006: the ASX 200 closed 8,891.80, 8.2 points under the 8,900 line, after 8,847.30 on Wednesday; 0 of 2. V023: the RBA table printed 1.2550 on Thursday after 1.2543, both between the 1.2400 stop and the 1.2600 profit line written in No. 038; no condition is counting. V031: marked on Wednesday only. FRED's Nasdaq-100 series has 29,813.16 on 28 October (verified) and Thursday's close was not obtained (≈−1% at midday, single source), so V031 is marked on Wednesday: 2.14% against the 29,187.55 entry. V017: FRED's HY row for 27 October printed 318bp (−12bp), IG 86bp on 28 October and CCC 1,321bp on 27 October (verified); the mirror is now 13bp away. V025: the dedicated series printed 156.6bp for 28 October (verified), 16.6bp above the mirror zone. V024: December settled $115.32 on 28 October (corroborated); Thursday ≈$114.96 late on TE (not a settle); January ≈$110.2–111.6 (single sources). December expires today, so from Monday only the January band counts.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	High	1–3 mo	Dedicated series 156.6bp (28 Oct, verified), −2.8bp on the day; ≈+63bp from a ≈94bp entry, −18bp from the 22 Oct record. Thursday ≈156.5bp derived from TE (not the mark). Lagarde: the "solution lies at home in France"; TPI criteria restated, no backstop. Senate 9 Nov; S&P 27 Nov	MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (16.6bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	FRED: HY 318bp (27 Oct, −12; −20 from 23 Oct), IG 86bp (28 Oct, −2), CCC 1,321bp (27 Oct). Spreads tightened through Alphabet's cash burn so far; hyperscaler debt spreads are the channel Hartnett flags. BDC redemptions exceeding fundraising (BGov, undated) keep the private-credit tail live	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (271bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (13bp away)
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	8,891.80 against 9,005.9: +1.27% in favour (from +2.34% a week ago). Banks led Thursday into a priced RBA hike; staples and lithium lagged. China PMIs Saturday	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (8.2 points away; 0 of 2; intraday prints do not count)
Nasdaq-100 (V031)	Put spread (hedge)	Low	1–2 mo	29,813.16 on 28 Oct (FRED, verified): 2.14% against the 29,187.55 entry. 29 Oct close not obtained; Nasdaq Composite ≈−1.7% late Thursday, in the view's favour. Alphabet −$9bn FCF, capex up "significantly" in 2027; Microsoft FY27 capex $170bn; record BofA client single-stock selling	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (3.75% above the 28 Oct mark)
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	1.2550 on the RBA 4pm table, 29 Oct (verified), +1.91% against ≈1.2315. RBA ≈80–88% for Tuesday; RBNZ December ≈80% (single source). Late New York ≈1.249–1.254 (derived, NY basis, not the mark)	PRE-COMMITTED 29 OCT, UNCHANGED: STOP two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (150 pips away; scores RIGHT). Two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (50 pips away)
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	December settled $115.32 on 28 Oct (corroborated); ≈$114.96 late on 29 Oct on TE (not a settle). January ≈$110.2–111.6 (single sources). Mines and a closure declaration in Hormuz; PortWatch 2 transits on 25 Oct; Europe 42mb release; OPEC+ Sunday	UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$26–30 below). December settles in $86.53–89.53 count only through today's expiry. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms

Friday scorecard. Six views open; 25 closed: 3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 18 decided calls have been right (the ledger does not yet record closing order finely enough to isolate the trailing 20 closed views, so the hit rate is over all 25). No view closed this week; V030 closed wrong last Friday. What we got right this week: V023 was positioned for the RBA–RBNZ divergence and the RBNZ's 4–3 hold delivered +1.9% in a session; the pre-committed 1.2400/1.2600 conditions now lock in that the view scores right whichever way it closes. V024's residual call held its value through a volatile week. What went against us: V017 (HY 340bp → 318bp), V025 (171.8bp → 156.6bp), V006 (+2.34% → +1.27% in favour) and V031 (≈+0.8% in favour → against). Three of those four are relief moves after last week's stress peak, and none has fired a pre-written condition; the nearest are V006 (8.2 points) and V017's mirror (13bp). We change none of the conditions in the wake of the move, per the ledger's rule.

Portfolio-level read. The book is long stress (V017, V025, V031) into a week that relieved it, and long Australian hawkishness against New Zealand (V023) into a week that rewarded it. Next week's calendar is the heaviest of the quarter for it: RBA and the midterms on Tuesday, the refunding on Wednesday, the BoE on Thursday and payrolls on Saturday morning. We would not add gross before Tuesday, and V006 is the view most likely to close first.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

Friday read: retail bearishness easing, the replica gauge still in extreme fear, tails expensive, and clients selling single stocks at a record pace.

CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 20 October (released 23 October); the 27 October report publishes Friday 15:30 ET, Saturday 06:30 AEDT, after this edition. Nets are this desk's arithmetic from the raw file (derived from verified inputs). Each flow series is a different universe and they are never netted.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 20 October
UST 2y · 5y · 10y	−1,285,548 · −2,117,544 · −2,107,224	+81,860 · −13,153 · +98,713	Covering at the front end and in 10s
Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond	−318,477 · −162,757 · −804,808	+17,381 · −8,737 · −89,079	Shorts added only at the very long end (ultra-bond shorts +95,313)
Six-contract Treasury total	−6,796,358	+86,985	Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure
E-mini S&P · Nasdaq-100 mini	−371,245 · +950	+37,481 · +12,543	Leveraged funds still net short S&P, flat Nasdaq
CFTC legacy non-commercial (FX) — as of Tue 20 October
EUR · JPY · GBP	−134,524 · +69,878 · −80,420	+3,049 · +19,671 · +26,544	Long yen, short everything else in this cut
AUD · NZD · CAD	−127,292 · −58,149 · −74,709	−9,993 · −11,148 · +20,056	AUD shorts added into the RBA; the TFF leveraged cut is net long AUD (+52,497) — different universes, both real
Flows — universes labelled, never netted
BofA Flow Show (Hartnett, 23 Oct)	Tech funds +$18.8bn (week to 21 Oct, EPFR)	Largest since July	"Tactically risk-off until mid-Nov"; a Democratic sweep "not priced". Headline asset-class totals not obtained (corroborated: Bloomberg via Yahoo, 24/7 Wall St)
BofA client flows (week to ≈23 Oct)	Single stocks −$14.8bn (record) · equity ETFs +$2.8bn	Institutions sold a 3rd week	Hedge funds sold for the first time in five weeks; tech the second-largest outflow on record; energy bought (corroborated; week-end date not stated)
US spot BTC ETFs (Farside via relays)	+$137.3m (28 Oct) · +$176.0m (27 Oct)	Three straight inflow days	IBIT +$136.0m on 28 Oct (corroborated: KuCoin, Bloomingbit, Farside on X). ETH ETFs −$21.4m (28 Oct). 29 Oct not posted
Cash ETFs (13-week)	+$41.6bn	z = +2.11	Fear & Greed replica safe-haven component (derived, third-party)
ICI money funds · CoinShares weekly	— · —		Not obtained this run (ICI page served only an xls link; CoinShares' latest weekly found is 16 Oct, −$434m)
Surveys, volatility and breadth
AAII (week to 28 Oct, released 29 Oct)	Bulls 37.8% · neutral 20.7% · bears 41.4%	Spread −3.6 (from −8.9)	Bears still ≈10pp above the 31.5% long-run average, but falling (AAII; verified)
Fear & Greed replica (28 Oct)	23 — extreme fear	25 a week ago; 44 a month ago	Nine sessions in extreme fear (thetrading.tools; corroborated)
VIX close (28 Oct) · SKEW (28 Oct)	16.91 · 148.7	VIX −3.5%; 19.45 on 23 Oct	FRED VIXCLS (verified). SKEW "elevated", z +0.6: demand for tail hedges into the midterms rather than panic (our reading)
Put/call (27 Oct)	Total 0.93 · equity 0.59 · index 1.06	9-day 0.89, 72nd pct	Index hedging heavy, equity calls still bid
% S&P above 200-day (27 Oct)	61.8%	60.6% on 26 Oct	Below the long-run mean of ≈65% (historyofmarket; corroborated)
FactSet Earnings Insight (23 Oct)	Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +29.5%	24% reported: 83% beat EPS, 66% revenue	Revenue beat rate below the 70% five-year average; CY26 EPS +33.1% (verified). 30 Oct edition not yet out
Sell-side (dated)	MS Wilson YE 8,000 (27 Oct) · Hartnett risk-off to mid-Nov (23 Oct)	Yardeni 7,900 (16 Sep)	Wilson calls the midterms a "clearing event" and the correction "nearing its end" (Investing; corroborated)

The week ahead

Today in full, then the week of 2 November: RBA and the US midterms on Tuesday, the refunding Wednesday, the BoE Thursday, payrolls Friday. AEDT first, US Eastern alongside; AEDT = EDT + 15h until Sunday 1 November, then EST + 16h.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Friday 30 October — Tokyo CPI, BoJ, Brent December expiry, euro-area GDP, US ECI
Fri	10:30	Thu 19:30	Tokyo CPI (Oct) headline · core · core-core · Japan Sep jobless and IP	2.7% · 2.7% · 2.8%	2.7% · 2.7% · 3.0%	M
Fri	11:30	Thu 20:30	AU PPI Q3 q/q · private-sector credit (Sep) m/m	≈1.0% · 0.5%	1.3% · 0.6%	M
Fri	≈12:15	Thu 21:15	PBoC USD/CNY fix		6.7147 (29 Oct)	L
Fri	≈14:00	Thu ≈23:00	BoJ decision + Outlook Report "Bank's View" (no fixed time) · Ueda presser ≈17:30	Hold	1.25%	H
Fri	19:00	04:00	Deribit monthly expiry (BTC ≈$10.9–11.0bn notional, max pain $78,000) · Brent December last trading day			M
Fri	21:00	06:00	Euro-area Q3 flash GDP q/q · unemployment (Sep)	0.2% · —	0.6% · 6.4%	H
Fri	23:30	08:30	US employment cost index Q3	0.8%	0.9%	M
Sat 31	00:00 · 00:45	Fri 09:00 · 09:45	German CPI prelim (Oct) y/y · Chicago PMI · ECB Lane (03:10) · Fed Musalem (03:30)	3.0% · —	3.3% · —	M
Sat 31	06:30	Fri 15:30	CFTC COT (positions as of 27 Oct)			L
Sat 31	12:30	Fri 21:30	China NBS PMIs (Oct) manufacturing · non-manufacturing	≈50.0 · ≈50.5	50.1 · 50.2	H
Sun 1	—	—	OPEC+ (seven producers) on December targets · US DST ends (AEDT = EST + 16h from Monday)			M
Week of 2 November
Mon 2	11:30 · 12:45	Sun 19:30 · 20:45	AU building approvals (Sep) · Cotality HVI (Oct) · China RatingDog mfg PMI · EZ and UK final mfg PMIs (20:00)		−6.1% m/m · 52.1	L
Tue 3	02:00	Mon 10:00	US ISM manufacturing (Oct) · prices paid	54.7 (TE)	54.5 · 77.9	H
Tue 3	07:00	Mon 15:00	Treasury refunding: financing estimates			M
Tue 3	14:30 · 15:30	Mon 22:30	RBA decision + SMP · Bullock presser · Japan closed (Culture Day) · Melbourne Cup (Victoria only; ASX open)	4.85%	4.60%	H
Tue 3	all day	Tue	US midterm elections; results through Wednesday AEDT	D sweep 67% (Polymarket)		H
Wed 4	02:00 · 08:45	Tue 10:00	US JOLTS (Sep) · NZ Q3 labour market	7.06m · —	7.079m · 5.6%	M
Wed 4	19:30 · 21:00	03:30 · 05:00	Riksbank decision · euro-area flash HICP (Oct) headline · core · Israel official election result	— · —	1.75% · 3.8% · 2.5%	H
Thu 5	00:30 · 02:00	Wed 08:30 · 10:00	Treasury quarterly refunding announcement · US trade (Sep) · ADP (00:15) · ISM services	TE 54.5	−$105.6bn · 54.9	H
Thu 5	≈08:30 · 11:30	Wed 16:30	Brazil Copom · AU trade balance (Sep)	— · A$0.7bn	13.75% · A$0.495bn	M
Thu 5	20:00 · 23:00	04:00 · 07:00	Norges Bank · BoE decision + MPR	≈98% +25bp priced	4.50% · 3.75%	H
Fri 6	00:30 · 06:00	Thu 08:30 · 14:00	US claims · Q3 productivity · Banxico decision		194k · 6.50%	M
Sat 7	00:30	Fri 08:30	US October payrolls · unemployment · AHE y/y · UMich prelim (02:00) · NZ election	TE 40k · — · —	29k · 4.2% · 3.0%	H
The sessions after
9 Nov – 18 Dec	—	—	China CPI/PPI Mon 9 · French Senate takes the social-security bill Mon 9 · Veterans Day Wed 11 (US bonds closed) · US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 · UK Q3 GDP Thu 12 · US PPI Sat 14 · APEC Shenzhen 18–19 Nov · PBoC LPR Fri 20 · BoK Thu 26 · S&P on France Fri 27 · RBA Tue 8 Dec · RBNZ Wed 9 Dec 12:00 · FOMC + SEP Thu 10 Dec 06:00 · funding to Fri 11 Dec · SNB Thu 10 Dec · BoE Thu 17 Dec 23:00 · ECB Fri 18 Dec 00:15 · BoJ Fri 18 Dec · Graham Act waiver lapses ≈mid-December			M

⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics calendars (column labels not shown for unreleased rows, so the mapping of prior and consensus is this desk's reading), Mace News (Tokyo CPI) and centralbank.watch (BoE). Changes since Thursday's edition: the euro-area flash HICP is Wednesday 4 November, not today; the refunding announcement is confirmed for Wednesday 4 November ET (Treasury, 5 Aug statement); the RBNZ's next decision is 9 December; French and Italian GDP/CPI dates, Copom's time and Australian retail sales were not confirmed.

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	US strike on Iran after the midterms, or a confirmed hit on Gulf exports	WSJ: Gulf states told to prepare for action after 3 Nov; IRGC mine claims and closure declaration (29 Oct); Houthi refinery claim unconfirmed; OPEC+ Sun 1 Nov	Kalshi WTI ≥$103 on 3 Nov ≈40% (no timestamp; unverified)	Brent January through $120; diesel; renewed term-premium pressure; EM importers	V024's residual call
2	Midterm sweep and policy shock	Tue 3 Nov; results through Wed 4 Nov AEDT	D sweep 67%, R Senate/D House 28%, R sweep 7% (Polymarket, no timestamp)	Hartnett: a sweep is "not priced" and negative for earnings; tariff and regulatory repricing	Q4 collars; index puts over single names
3	AI-capex de-rating spreads from Alphabet to the AI complex	Alphabet FCF −$9bn; MSFT FY27 capex $170bn; Amazon and Apple results (§02); BofA record single-stock client selling		Nasdaq-100 through its 50-day (≈29,405) toward the 28,826 October low; Korea, Taiwan, China AI beta	V031
4	Fed hikes 9 December after hot payrolls or CPI	Payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30; CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30	Dec +25bp ≈80% (CME via Fox, 10:34 ET 29 Oct)	2-year through 4.80%; 10-year back above 5%; dollar firmer	2-year options
5	Disorderly long end at the refunding	Financing estimates Tue 3 Nov 07:00; announcement Thu 5 Nov 00:30 AEDT	FMS: 31% name it the top tail risk	Term-premium spike against ≈6.8m contracts of leveraged-fund Treasury shorts	Steepeners; low duration
6	RBA hikes with a hawkish SMP	Tue 3 Nov 14:30	≈80–88% (TE, BBH, ASX tracker, CBA)	ACGB 3-year through 5%; February priced; banks up, rate-sensitives down	V006; V023
7	Credit stress fails to broaden; spreads keep tightening	HY 318bp (27 Oct), −20bp in two sessions		V017's mirror (two FRED HY prints below 305bp) fires; the HY underweight loses its carry argument	V017 (High)
8	OAT–Bund relief continues into the mirror zone	Senate social-security vote 9 Nov; S&P 27 Nov; ECB succession		OAT–Bund below 140bp on two prints takes V025 back to Med	V025 (High)
9	BoJ language shift and a yen squeeze	Today ≈14:00; Tokyo CPI 10:30	83% of Bloomberg survey expect December (22 Oct)	USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto	Short-dated USD/JPY puts
10	China disappoints on PMIs after a stimulus-free Plenum	NBS PMIs Sat 31 Oct 12:30		Iron ore below $90; ASX materials; AUD crosses	Short iron ore vs copper
11	Israel: prolonged coalition talks into a Gulf escalation	Official result 4 Nov; nomination by 11 Nov		Regional risk premium; caretaker government	—

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	≈7,694 (late)	≈7,699 (50-day) · 7,682 (20-day) · 7,623.68 (23 Oct)	≈7,745 (100-day) · 7,743.98 (28 Oct) · 7,815 (6 Oct record)	MAs from Investing.com as of 23 Oct (stale); RSI 35.4 then
Nasdaq-100	29,813.16 (28 Oct)	29,405 (50-day) · 29,188 (V031 entry) · 28,826 (23 Oct low)	29,995 (100-day) · 30,181 (200-day) · 30,932 (V031 closes, two closes)	MAs Investing.com as of 26 Oct; 29 Oct intraday low 29,257 (investingLive)
UST 10y · 2y	5.05% · 4.67% (par 28 Oct)	4.96% (22 Oct par) · ≈4.98% (29 Oct vendor)	5.09% (16 Oct par) · 5.13% (21 Oct)	Par 29 Oct posts ≈09:00 AEDT
OAT–Bund	156.6bp (28 Oct)	140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes)	159.4 (27 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high)	Dedicated series is the mark
ACGB 3y · 10y	4.88 · 5.18%	4.80 · 5.10	4.92 (28 Oct) · 5.00 · 5.26	Supports and resistances are our reading
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	≈102.0 · ≈1.116 · ≈157.9	101.50 · ≈1.110 (29 Oct 2026 low) · 156.08	102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4	Carried levels; EUR low per Pound Sterling Live
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.7053 · 1.2550 (RBA)	0.6951 (CBA) · 1.2400 (V023 stop, two closes)	≈0.7070 (29 Oct Asia high) · 1.2600 (V023 closes RIGHT, two closes)	AUD/NZD 1.2602 intraday on 28 Oct (ABC)
Brent (Dec · Jan)	$115.32 settle 28 Oct · ≈$110–111.6	≈$110 (Jan) · $108 (FinanceFeeds bear case) · $81.51–84.51 (V024, Jan)	$116.72 (Dec, 23 Oct settle) · $120	December expires today; January is the front from Monday
Gold · Silver	$4,019.30 · $52.13	$4,004.50 (29 Oct low) · $4,000 · $3,950	$4,069.90 (29 Oct high) · $4,145 (22 Oct high)	Kitco; $3,950 is our reading
S&P/ASX 200	8,891.80	8,847.30 (28 Oct) · 8,795.2 (23 Oct) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone)	8,900 (V006 closes, two closes) · ≈8,928 (28 Oct high) · 8,935–8,940 (supply)	Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried)
IG / HY / CCC OAS	86 / 318 / 1,321bp	HY 305 (to Med on two prints) · CCC 1,050 (V017 exits)	HY 340 (22 Oct) · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct)	FRED; each series carries its own date
Bitcoin	≈$80,410	$78,000 (Deribit max pain, today's expiry) · $76,000	$81,636 (28 Oct high) · $84,262	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was corrected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Friday week-in-review edition. Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:12 AEDT, with the US session still trading; Asia, Australia, Europe and the central-bank sections were drafted first and the US-close block was fetched after the 16:00 ET bell, per the timing protocol. No 16:00 ET close for Thursday could be read by ≈07:25 AEDT: the AP tabulation for 29 October had not posted, the La Nación syndication returned a client error, stockanalysis served stale 27 October pages and Yahoo's live blog was cached at its ≈14:40 ET quote box. US equity levels are therefore that quote box, single source and labelled late, each tying to AP's verified Wednesday close; no view was marked on them. Amazon's results were not available. The Fed Rate Monitor had still not refreshed since 27 October 09:25 ET. Primary reads this run: AP's 28 October tabulation, the official par curve to 28 October, FRED (Nasdaq-100, VIX, IG/HY/CCC), BEA's GDP and PCE releases, the ECB press release and statement, the RBA 4pm table, the OAT–Bund dedicated series, Westmetall, Kitco, the BoJ schedule and the CFTC files. Every figure was retrieved on 29–30 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 038

(1) US closes, Wednesday 28 October — material for the record. AP's tabulation (via La Nación; matched by Yahoo's 28 October markets article) has the S&P 500 at 7,743.98 (+21.38, +0.3%), not 7,744.28; the Dow 52,475.10 (+97.53), not 52,479.62; the Russell 2000 2,830.51 (+11.64, +0.4%), not 2,823.00. The Nasdaq Composite, 26,549.85, was right. No view was marked on these. This is the second session running in which a 16:02 ET first print differed from AP's settled table.
(2) Nasdaq-100, 28 October: 29,813.16 (FRED; verified), not obtained in No. 038; 27 October 29,651.44 confirms the single-source mark carried.
(3) Official par curve, 28 October: 2-year 4.67%, 5-year 4.85%, 10-year 5.05%, 30-year 5.37% (verified), against No. 038's vendor 2-year ≈4.72–4.78%: the 2-year fell on FOMC day and the curve bear-steepened (2s10s 29bp → 38bp).
(4) ASX 200, 28 October: 8,847.30 (TE table, tying to ABC's 29 October close less 44.50), against ≈8,847 carried.
(5) Brent and WTI December, 28 October: settled $115.32 and $102.78 (The National; TE previous close; corroborated), against ≈$115.2 and ≈$102.6 vendor levels carried.
(6) FRED: HY 27 October 318bp (not posted in No. 038); IG 28 October 86bp. VIX closed 16.91 on 28 October (FRED), against ≈17.3 intraday carried.
(7) OAT–Bund, 28 October: 156.6bp on the dedicated series, against ≈156bp derived in No. 038.
(8) Meta reported on 21 October, not this week (Newsquawk), so No. 038's "Meta fell" on 28 October was a post-results drift, not an earnings move.
(9) Discharged from Thursday's list: NDX 28 October; AP 28 October; RBA 4pm 29 October; ASX 28 and 29 October to two decimals; par 28 October; FRED HY 27 October; Brent and WTI December 28 October settles; OAT–Bund 28 October; GDP, PCE and the ECB.

Conflicts and how they were resolved

Core PCE m/m: investingLive's headline "+0.5%" against BEA's +0.3%; BEA is the primary, and +0.5% is the headline figure. Brent January 28 October: $111.64 "previous close" (single source) against a same-table intraday $110.71 (Mitrade); the Dec–Jan spread is shown as ≈$3.7–4.6. RBA pricing: 74–79% (centralbank.watch) to 88% (TE); range shown. BoJ December: ING ≈80% priced against an AOL/Reuters-style wrap saying a hike is not fully priced until January; both shown. Shanghai close: 3,651.43 against 3,645 in two TE items; shown as ≈3,651. Samsung's share move: −4.13% (Yonhap) against −0.62% (TE); Yonhap used. IBEX: three conflicting TE figures; not shown. FX at the New York close: TE snapshots without timestamps disagree (AUD/USD 0.7029–0.7051; DXY 102.04–102.23); late TE readings are shown with "≈" and the RBA table is the mark for views. Reuters intraday (13:49 ET): its Dow and Nasdaq levels do not tie to their own stated changes against AP's priors, so Yahoo's quote box is used. Swiss 10-year: 0.499% and 0.510% on two TE rows; not used.

Single-source and unverified items

US equity levels for 29 October (Yahoo ≈14:40 ET) · Alphabet results detail (investingLive) · Microsoft FY27 capex guide (investingLive) · 7-year auction high yield (investingLive headline) · Brent January 28 October · Henry Hub, TTF, platinum, aluminium, iron ore, COMEX copper, lithium (TE) · Stoxx 600 and euro-area index levels (TE cross-table; DAX and CAC derived) · Shanghai, CSI 300, Hang Seng, TAIEX, Sensex, Nifty (TE) · TOPIX · AU import prices · ACGB curve (TE) · ANZ NZ surveys · RBNZ December pricing · Riksbank pricing · IRGC mine and closure claims · Houthi refinery claim · Polymarket and Kalshi odds (no timestamps) · BofA Flow Show and client-flow figures (secondary) · crypto prices (CoinGecko snapshot).

Not obtained

US cash closes, Nasdaq-100 and VIX closes for 29 October · AP tabulation 29 Oct · Amazon results · Alphabet and Microsoft closing moves · settled Fed Rate Monitor · official par 29 Oct · Brent December and January and WTI settles 29 Oct · FRED HY and CCC for 28 October; IG for 29 October · OAT–Bund 29 October dedicated row · NZX 50 close · Hang Seng Tech · SMI · SPI overnight · ASX breadth and closing sector table · ICI money funds · CoinShares weekly · BofA headline asset-class flows · VIX futures term structure · IG issuance · ETF flows for 29 October · uranium · PBoC 30 October fix (posts 12:15) · Bullock's Senate Estimates remarks · French and Italian data dates · Australian retail-sales date.

Monday's first verification targets

(1) AP tabulation and Nasdaq-100 close for 29 October, and Amazon's results (V031 marked on Wednesday only). (2) ASX 200 Friday close (V006: 8.2 points from the line; two closes above 8,900 needed). (3) RBA 4pm Friday (V023). (4) FRED HY 28–30 October (V017 mirror 13bp away). (5) OAT–Bund 29–30 October rows (V025). (6) Brent January settles 29–30 October (V024's only band from Monday) and December's final settle. (7) CFTC COT as of 27 October; BoJ decision and Outlook; China PMIs; OPEC+ outcome.

United States, the Fed and positioning

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the timestamps shown and may be revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. Views are analytical framings with invalidation conditions set in advance, logged and scored in the project's views ledger. No. 039, Friday 30 October 2026.