The bottom line
- The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with two dissents for a hike, and the market kept December. The vote was 10–2, Governor Cook and Cleveland's Hammack preferring +25bp; the statement upgraded activity to "a strong pace", kept "Inflation remains elevated" and swapped September's path language for "the accumulation of more information" (federalreserve.gov; verified). Warsh said "inflation is too high" and that September's hike "has worked some" (investingLive, early presser; corroborated); about 22bp is priced for 9 December after the presser (investingLive), and the dollar eased (DXY ≈102.1, −0.21%; TE). The 10-year closed back above 5% on vendor screens (≈5.03–5.05%, +3–5bp; TE, Boursorama). Stocks barely moved: S&P 500 7,744.28 (+0.28%), Dow 52,479.62 (+0.19%), Nasdaq 26,549.85 (+0.27%) (Yahoo 16:02 ET, single source, ties to AP's verified Tuesday closes). Tonight's GDP and PCE (23:30 AEDT; core 3.1% y/y expected) are the first test of a December hike.
- Australia's core came in at the top of the range and November is now 87–90% priced. Trimmed mean rose 1.0% q/q and 3.7% y/y against the RBA's 0.8% and 3.4%; headline 1.3% q/q; September monthly CPI 4.3% y/y with fuel +9.4% m/m (ABS verified; quarterly corroborated). CBA and NAB moved to a 3 November hike, so all four majors now call 4.85%. The ACGB 2-year rose 7bp to 4.99% (TE, derived). The ASX 200 ran to ≈8,928 on the print and closed ≈8,847, about flat (ABC, TE; corroborated), so V006's 8,900 line held: 0 of 2, ≈53 points away, +1.76% in favour.
- The RBNZ blinked, and V023 paid. It held at 2.75% on a 4–3 vote against a ≈90% priced hike, with Breman, Williams, Hansen and Gai in the majority (interest.co.nz, investingLive; corroborated). On the RBA's 4pm table AUD/NZD rose 208 pips to 1.2543 (verified), +1.85% from V023's ≈1.2315 entry; ABC had 1.2602 intraday, the highest since early 2013. We raise V023's stop to 1.2400 and pre-commit a profit condition at 1.2600 in §08 rather than add to it.
- Korea's chip rally went vertical: the KOSPI rose 6.63% to 6,012.44. SK hynix reported Q3 operating profit of ₩83.33tn, more than seven times a year earlier, plus ₩60tn of extra shareholder returns (TE; corroborated); Samsung rose 5.74% before today's results and the TAIEX ≈2.0% (unverified). In New York Micron rose ≈5% intraday while ServiceNow and Meta fell (Investing.com 14:14 ET). Microsoft reported revenue of $92.3bn (+19%), non-GAAP EPS $4.89 and Azure growth of 48% against a ≈45% guide and ≈$90.75bn / ≈$4.72 consensus, with quarterly property-and-equipment spending of $39.4bn (PANews, stamped 20:04 UTC; single source, share reaction not obtained); Alphabet's results were not obtained. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) could not be marked: the Nasdaq-100 close was not obtained.
- Oil put back the risk premium that diplomacy took out on Tuesday. Brent December settled $113.88 on Tuesday (−$1.93; corroborated) and traded ≈$115.2–116.3 on Wednesday (TE end of day; Boursorama 18:19 CET; not settles) on a 1.9mb EIA crude draw (verified), a Houthi claim of a strike on Ras Tanura that Saudi Arabia has not confirmed, and a WSJ report that the US told Gulf allies to prepare for a "short but intense" offensive after the midterms (corroborated). An Iranian official called Qatar's seven-day draft "unacceptable ideas, not an offer" (Reuters; verified). Dutch TTF touched €100/MWh. V024's January band is about $26–29 below.
- Credit kept tightening and France widened a little; the UK Budget passed without a gilt event. FRED's 27 October rows have IG at 88bp (−2) and CCC 1,321bp (−24); HY's 27 October row had not posted (330bp on the 26th) (verified). V017 is unchanged at High. The OAT–Bund dedicated series printed 159.4bp for 27 October (verified), 19bp above the zone where V025's mirror starts counting. Healey's first Budget left ≈£15bn of headroom and cut long-dated gilt issuance; the 10-year traded the narrowest Budget-day range since 2020 and closed ≈5.34%. The BoC hiked 25bp to 2.50%. Gold slipped 0.24% to $4,049.40 (Kitco 15:10 ET; verified); bitcoin ≈$81,414 (CoinGecko, ≈07:20 AEDT).
Overnight recap
Australia and New Zealand: the print and the blink
At 11:30 the ABS reported a 1.3% q/q rise in Q3 CPI with the trimmed mean at 1.0% q/q and 3.7% y/y, and the September monthly at 4.3% y/y (August 4.0%) (§04, theme 1). Pricing for a 3 November hike went from ≈60% to 79% by 11:47 and ≈90% by the close (ABC; corroborated by The Adviser 87% and TE 88%). Half an hour later the RBNZ held at 2.75% on a 4–3 vote (theme 2). AUD/USD rose to 0.7045 at 11:47 and settled to 0.7032 at 16:18 (ABC); the RBA table had AUD/USD 0.7034 and AUD/NZD 1.2543 (verified). The ASX 200 closed ≈8,847, about 3 points lower, after a peak of ≈8,928 at 11:05 (ABC, TE; corroborated). ACGBs sold off at the front: 2-year 4.99% (+7bp), 10-year 5.21% (+5bp). The NZX 50 rose ≈0.08% to ≈13,691 (TE).
North Asia: SK hynix lifts the region
The KOSPI rose 374.10 points (+6.63%) to 6,012.44 (TE; arithmetic ties to 5,638.34) after SK hynix's results (Q3 operating profit ₩83.33tn, about 7% above consensus, and ₩60tn of extra returns); SK hynix itself rose 3.32% and Samsung 5.74%. The Nikkei rose to ≈63,954–64,053 (+1.1–1.2%; two TE items, both tying to the 63,268 prior; official archive unavailable), led by Renesas (+7.6%), Sumco (+6.6%) and Tokyo Electron (+4.4%). The TAIEX rose ≈2.0% to ≈47,036 (TE, CFD-based; unverified) with MediaTek +6.9%. Shanghai rose 0.91% to ≈3,681.5 and the CSI 300 0.85% to ≈4,083.87, chip names recovering Tuesday's losses on the Plenum's last full day; the Hang Seng rose ≈0.2% to ≈23,095 (TE; corroborated). The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7165 against a 6.6734 estimate (corroborated). India fell: Sensex −0.48% to 73,246.03, Nifty −0.22% to 22,698.85, on IT and Reliance (Liquide; corroborated).
Europe: flat equities, a quiet Budget, TTF at €100
The DAX rose 0.44% to 25,704.02, a five-week intraday high (dpa-AFX; verified); the CAC was unchanged at 7,886.96, the Stoxx 600 +0.06% and the FTSE 100 +0.07% (Boursorama 18:19 CET; RTTNews' earlier −0.2% to −0.3% readings were intraday and conflict with the dpa close, §13). Bunds sold off at the front (Schatz 3.10%, +5.3bp; Bund 3.38%, +2.6bp) and OATs rose 2.5bp to 4.94% (Boursorama). Dutch TTF hit €100/MWh for the first time since December 2022 (Newsquawk; verified). In London, Chancellor Healey's first Budget left ≈£15bn of headroom (£14.5bn on Newsquawk's reading), raised the bank surcharge to 6% rather than the 8% floated, and cut long-dated gilt issuance to £15.5bn from £22.4bn within a £250.6bn remit; gilts traded a 7bp range, the narrowest on a Budget day since 2020, and closed little changed (§06).
North America: Ottawa hikes, Washington holds
The Bank of Canada raised its rate 25bp to 2.50% at 09:45 ET, its first hike since July 2023, and said it would "proceed carefully"; Canada's 2-year hit 3.441%, the highest since August 2024, and USD/CAD fell to ≈1.4006 (Reuters via MarketScreener; corroborated). The EIA reported a 1.9mb crude draw against a small expected build (Kitco/Reuters; verified) and the September advance goods deficit widened to $134.9bn, the largest since March 2025 (TheStreet). At 14:00 ET the FOMC held at 3.75–4.00%, 10–2 (§04, theme 3). Before the decision chips led (SK hynix ADR +12.9%, Micron +5.2%, KLA +3.1%) and software lagged (ServiceNow −3.9%, Meta −1.5%; Investing.com 14:14 ET); Vertiv rose ≈17% and Enphase fell ≈17% on results (StockTitan, 15:00 ET). At the close (Yahoo, 16:02 ET; single source) the S&P 500 was 7,744.28 (+21.68, +0.28%), the Dow 52,479.62 (+102.05, +0.19%), the Nasdaq 26,549.85 (+72.04, +0.27%) and the Russell 2000 2,823.00 (+0.15%); each level ties exactly to AP's Tuesday close plus Yahoo's stated change. The S&P is up 1.58% on the week (derived against AP's 23 October 7,623.68). The 10-year ended ≈5.03–5.05% (TE) and the VIX was ≈17.3 an hour before the close (Yahoo, intraday).
After the bell, the Gulf and Israel
Microsoft reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $92.3bn (+19% y/y), non-GAAP EPS of $4.89 (+18%) and Azure growth of 48%, against consensus of ≈$90.75bn, ≈$4.72 and a ≈45% constant-currency guide; property-and-equipment spending was $39.4bn against a capex guide above $50bn, a difference that may reflect finance leases (PANews, stamped 20:04 UTC; single source, guidance and share reaction not obtained). Alphabet results were not obtained (consensus EPS ≈$3.00–3.03, revenue ≈$127.9bn). Gulf: Qatar's seven-day, step-by-step draft with guarantors was rejected by an Iranian official as "unacceptable ideas, not an offer", with Iran's formal reply due this week (Reuters via Internazionale; verified); Iran says Hormuz is "completely closed" to non-compliant vessels after a tanker hit mines on 27 October (Newsquawk). Israel: with 85.6% counted, Ynet has Netanyahu's bloc on 53 seats and Eisenkot's on 48, with Arab parties on 19 (verified as reported, not official); more than 500,000 soldiers' ballots are counted through Thursday and the official result is due 4 November.
Thursday open
No SPI overnight figure or ABC Thursday blog was available at filing. With the S&P +0.28%, the 10-year back above 5%, Brent firmer, gold slightly lower and AUD/USD ≈0.7053 in New York, our inference is a flat-to-firm open with energy supported and rate-sensitives under pressure from the front end. The marks that matter today: the Microsoft and Alphabet reactions, the Plenum communiqué, Samsung, and GDP/PCE tonight.
Market dashboard
Wednesday 28 October: change on the session
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,744.28 | +0.28% | +1.58% | Yahoo 16:02 ET, single source; 7,722.60 (AP, verified) + 21.68 ties. AP 28 Oct not yet posted |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 52,479.62 · 26,549.85 | +0.19% · +0.27% | +0.51% · +2.29% | Yahoo (Dow stamped 16:02:28 ET); both tie to AP's verified Tuesday closes |
| Russell 2000 · Nasdaq-100 | 2,823.00 · — | +0.15% · — | +1.70% · — | Russell ties to AP's 2,818.87. NDX close not obtained (Yahoo quote page stale) |
| VIX · VIX3M | ≈17.3 · 19.57 (27 Oct) | ≈−1% | — | Yahoo 15:01 ET, intraday. Tuesday close 17.52; ratio 0.895 (term-structure replica) |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | ≈640.5 · 25,704.02 | +0.06% · +0.44% | ≈+0.8% · +2.07% | DAX dpa-AFX close (verified; prior ties). Stoxx level derived from Boursorama's % and No. 037's 640.08 |
| FTSE 100 · CAC 40 | ≈10,696 · 7,886.96 | +0.07% · 0.00% | ≈0.0% · ≈+1.4% | Boursorama 18:19 CET; FTSE level derived. RTTNews intraday readings conflict (§13) |
| FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI | — · — · — | — · — · ≈−0.1% | — | MIB and IBEX not obtained; SMI from RTTNews only (unverified) |
| Nikkei 225 | ≈63,954–64,053 | +1.08% to +1.24% | ≈+2.0% | Two TE items, both tie to 63,268; official archive unavailable. Unverified |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | ≈3,681.5 · ≈4,083.87 | +0.91% · +0.85% | ≈−0.2% · ≈−0.5% | TE (CFD-based), arithmetic ties; corroborated by ABC's +0.7% at 16:15 |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | ≈23,095 · — | ≈+0.23% · — | ≈0.0% | TE; HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 6,012.44 · ≈47,035.58 | +6.63% · ≈+2.04% | ≈+8.3% · ≈+2.2% | KOSPI corroborated (TE; ABC +7.3% at 16:15). TAIEX TE CFD, unverified |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 73,246.03 · 22,698.85 | −0.48% · −0.22% | — | Corroborated (Liquide, India TV); arithmetic ties |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ≈8,847 | ≈−0.04% | ≈+0.59% | ABC 16:15 and TE summary (corroborated; two-decimal close not obtained; TE's 8,834.30 is a CFD print, not used). Intraday high ≈8,928. SPI not obtained |
| NZX 50 | ≈13,691 | ≈+0.08% | ≈−0.3% | TE; The Bottom Line had not posted |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 27 Oct | 4.70 · 4.82 · 4.99 · 5.30% | +2 · −2 · −1 · −1bp | +1 · 0 · −1 · −3bp | Verified (Treasury par curve). 28 Oct row posts ≈09:00 AEDT |
| UST 2y · 10y · 30y, 28 Oct (vendor) | ≈4.72–4.78 · ≈5.03–5.05 · ≈5.35–5.36% | 10y +3 to +5bp | — | TE table and headline disagree; Boursorama 2y 4.77, 10y 5.03 at 18:19 CET. Provisional, never a trigger |
| 2s10s · 5s30s (par, 27 Oct) | 29 · 48bp | −3 · +1bp | — | Derived from the verified par row |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | ≈5.34 · ≈5.71% | ≈−1 · ≈−3bp | — | Boursorama 5.340% flat; TE 5.33–5.35%; 5.30% intraday low. Budget day |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.38 · 4.94 · 4.52% | +2.4 · +2.0 · +0.6bp | — | TE, corroborated by Boursorama (3.381 / 4.940). Schatz 3.10% (+5.3bp) |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 159.4bp (27 Oct) | +3.0bp | — | Verified (stamped 27/10 17h35; OAT 4.94 / Bund 3.35). 28 Oct ≈156bp derived from Boursorama (not the mark). V025 High |
| JGB 10y · 30y | ≈2.83 · ≈3.88% | +4 · +6bp | — | TE |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.99 · 4.92 · 5.21% | +7 · +4 · +5bp | — | TE levels, changes by level difference (derived). ABC 10y 5.22% at 16:15 |
| Canada 10y · Swiss 10y | 3.885 · 0.499% | +2.4 · +4.2bp | — | Canada Reuters via MarketScreener (2y 3.441% high); Swiss TE |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS | 88 (27 Oct) · 330 (26 Oct) · 1,321 (27 Oct) | −2 · — · −24bp | — | Verified (FRED). HY's 27 Oct row had not posted; ConvexTrade stale |
| FX | Wed close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈102.11 | −0.21% | — | TE post-FOMC snapshot; eased during the presser. Earlier TE read 102.43 (§13) |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1162 · ≈1.3327 | +0.12% · +0.03% | — | TE; Boursorama EUR 1.1147. Cable ≈$1.33 through the Budget |
| USD/JPY | ≈157.98 | +0.09% | — | TE (158.07–158.29 on its own page). Investing.com's undated 157.47 rejected (§13) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7034 (RBA) · ≈0.7053 (NY) | +0.19% (RBA) · ≈+0.40% (NY) | +0.40% (RBA, vs 0.7006) | RBA 4pm verified. NY TE post-FOMC. Bases not blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2543 (RBA) · ≈0.5629 | +1.69% (RBA) · ≈−1.11% | +1.87% (RBA, vs 1.2313) | RBA 4pm verified. NY cross ≈1.2531 (TE). NZD low ≈0.5580 after the RBNZ |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.4006 · ≈0.8280 | −0.31% · −0.09% | — | CAD corroborated (TE, Reuters 15:16 ET) after the BoC hike |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6621 · 6.7165 | −0.05% | — | Fix 431 pips weak of the 6.6734 estimate (corroborated). Spot strongest since 2022 |
| USD/BRL · USD/MXN | ≈5.360 · ≈18.612 | +0.23% · −0.35% | — | TE stated changes (single source) |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW | ≈95.33 · ≈1,340.9 | +0.32% · +1.09% | — | TE stated changes; won weaker on the day despite the KOSPI (single source) |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | ≈$115.2 · settle 27 Oct $113.88 | ≈+1.2% | ≈−1.3% | 28 Oct: TE end of day ≈$115.2; Kitco/Reuters $115.66 at 11:00 ET; Boursorama $116.26 at 18:19 CET. Not settles. 27 Oct settle corroborated (−$1.93). Expires Fri 30 Oct |
| Brent JANUARY | ≈$111.6 (derived) · 27 Oct $110.53 | ≈+1.0% | — | 27 Oct from Investing.com history (not confirmed as ICE settle). 28 Oct back-solved from a late quote board (derived, unverified) |
| Dec–Jan spread | ≈$3.35 (27 Oct) | ≈−1.72 | — | Cross-source (settle less Investing close), not same-table; 26 Oct same-table $5.07. Unverified |
| WTI DECEMBER | ≈$102.6 · settle 27 Oct $99.90 | ≈+2.7% | — | Yahoo 15:01 ET; Boursorama $103.43. 27 Oct settle corroborated (Nation Thailand; FinanceFeeds $99.83 at 13:44) |
| Henry Hub · TTF | ≈$3.02 · ≈€98.5 | ≈+0.5% · ≈+2.7% | — | TE (front CFD). TTF touched €100/MWh, first since Dec 2022 (Newsquawk) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,049.40 | −0.24% | — | Verified (Kitco bid 15:10 ET; range 4,024.20–4,071.60). Muted after the Fed |
| Silver · Platinum | $54.09 · $1,542 | −0.5% · +0.1% | — | Kitco/Reuters 12:49 GMT, pre-FOMC (verified at that time) |
| Copper LME cash · COMEX | $14,625/t (27 Oct) · ≈$6.65/lb | +0.86% · ≈+0.3% | +1.46% (LME vs 23 Oct) | Westmetall (verified): cash ≈$190 over 3M, stocks 272,725t. COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% | ≈$90.70 (27 Oct) | ≈−0.1% | — | TE; 28 Oct not obtained. Two-year-low zone |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,414 | ≈+0.9% | — | CoinGecko ≈07:20 AEDT; change derived against No. 037's $80,680 (CoinGecko signs not shown) |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,365 · $102.5 · $1.33 · $753 | ≈+0.9 · +1.4 · +0.8 · +0.7% | — | CoinGecko; changes derived. Total cap $2.81tn; BTC dominance 58.4% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC +$176.0m (27 Oct) | ETH −$60.2m | — | Farside via three relays (BTC corroborated; ETH single source). 28 Oct not obtained. Deribit expiry Fri 30 Oct ≈$12bn, max pain ≈$79k (17 Oct read) |
Conventions: 1d is Wednesday 28 October; 1w is the change since Friday 23 October where a verified or corroborated prior exists, "≈" where derived. US cash closes are Yahoo's closing levels, single source, tying to AP's verified Tuesday closes. Treasury levels are the official par row for 27 October; Wednesday's vendor yields are provisional. FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is New York (TE, post-FOMC snapshot) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two bases are never blended. "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. Australia: one morning decided November
The print came in at or above every bank's forecast. The September quarter CPI rose 1.3% q/q and the trimmed mean 1.0% q/q, 3.7% y/y (from 3.6%), against the RBA's 0.8% and 3.4% (Savings.com.au, MacroBusiness, The Adviser; corroborated). The September monthly indicator rose 0.8% m/m and 4.3% y/y (August 4.0%), with the monthly-series trimmed mean at 3.6% and weighted median 3.4% (ABS; verified). Fuel did the damage: automotive fuel +9.4% m/m and +23.6% y/y; electricity +12.8% y/y as Commonwealth rebates rolled off; rents +3.6%, insurance +5.4% (ABS; verified). Pricing for a 25bp hike to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November went from ≈60% before the release to 87–90% by the close (The Adviser 87%, TE 88%, ABC "close to 90%"; corroborated). CBA and NAB switched to a November hike on the day, so all four majors now call 4.85%; CBA calls it an "insurance hike" and says the vote may not be unanimous, and Westpac's Ellis does not have further hikes in her base case. The ACGB 2-year rose 7bp to 4.99% and the 10-year 5bp to 5.21% (TE, level differences; derived).
2. The RBNZ blinks: a 4–3 hold against a priced hike
The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% on a 4–3 vote with roughly 90% of a hike priced and all five major NZ banks calling one (interest.co.nz, investingLive; corroborated). Governor Breman, Williams, Hansen and Gai voted to hold; Gourley, Chief Economist Conway and Assistant Governor Silk voted to hike. The statement keeps "tighter policy is still likely to be needed", conditional on the outlook, and the majority chose to "look through the direct effects" of fuel; the bank sees annual CPI rising to 4.4% in Q4 from 3.7% in Q3. NZD/USD fell as low as ≈0.5580 (−1.7% intraday; XTB, TE) and was ≈0.5629 late in New York. On the RBA's 4pm table AUD/NZD rose 208 pips to 1.2543 (verified), the highest since early 2013 on ABC's intraday 1.2602.
3. The Fed: a hawkish hold, two dissents for a hike, December left open
The FOMC held the target range at 3.75–4.00% on a 10–2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland's Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a 25bp hike (Federal Reserve statement; verified). The statement upgraded activity to "expanding at a strong pace", kept "Inflation remains elevated", and replaced the September language with "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal" (verified). Chair Warsh's early press-conference remarks, as relayed by investingLive and American Banker (corroborated, not transcript-verified): "Inflation is too high", "We have shown our readiness to act", "I'm unwilling and unable to call [financial conditions] tight", and that September's hike "has worked some". He also announced fewer rate-setting meetings from 2027 (eight meetings, one non-voting; two non-voting in 2028), per investingLive only. Before the decision CME FedWatch had ≈84–86% for a December hike; investingLive put ≈22bp priced for 9 December after the presser, and the dollar eased during it.
4. France: the mark moves the right way for V025
The dedicated OAT–Bund series posted 159.4bp for 27 October (OAT 4.94%, Bund 3.35%; ideal-investisseur, stamped 27/10 17h35; verified), 3bp wider than the 156.4bp on 26 October that completed V025's upgrade. On Wednesday, Boursorama's 18:19 CET close had OAT 4.940% and Bund 3.381%, a spread of ≈155.9bp (derived, not the mark); the 28 October dedicated row had not posted. The ECB decides tonight (00:15 AEDT Friday), and Newsquawk expects Lagarde's press conference to be dominated by OAT spreads and TPI questions. PLF part 1 and the Senate dates for the social-security bill are carried from No. 037 (verified there); S&P reviews France on 27 November.
5. Oil: the Gulf put $2 back in, the front spread compressed
Brent December settled $113.88 on Tuesday (−$1.93; Nation Thailand, BOE Report; corroborated) and rose through Wednesday: $115.66 at 11:00 ET (Kitco/Reuters; verified) and $116.26 at Europe's close (Boursorama), on a surprise 1.9mb crude draw (EIA; verified), a Houthi claim of a strike on Ras Tanura that Saudi Arabia has not confirmed, and a WSJ report that the US told Gulf states to prepare for a "short but intense" offensive after the midterms (via Times of Israel; corroborated). Qatar's seven-day draft deal was described by an Iranian official as "unacceptable ideas, not an offer" (Reuters via Internazionale; verified). January's 27 October close on Investing.com's history was $110.53 (not confirmed as the ICE settle), which would compress the December–January spread to ≈$3.35 from $5.07 into Friday's December expiry (derived, cross-source). WTI December settled $99.90 on Tuesday and was ≈$102.6 late Wednesday. Windward counted 18 Hormuz transits on 26 October, three of them tankers; TankerMap's seven-day count is 9 tankers. OPEC+ meets Sunday and is reported set to keep December targets unchanged (single source).
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing by meeting
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | Held 28 Oct, 10–2 (Cook, Hammack for +25bp) | Thu 10 Dec 06:00 (meeting 8–9 Dec) + SEP | ≈22bp for 9 Dec post-presser (investingLive); pre-decision CME ≈84–86% Dec hike; Investing 27 Oct 09:25 ET: Dec +25bp 73.4%, +50bp 8.2% | Hawkish hold |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held 28 Oct, 4–3 (Gourley, Conway, Silk for +25bp) | December MPS (date not re-confirmed) | Hike was ≈90% priced; post-decision December pricing not obtained | Tightening bias, delayed |
| BoC | 2.50% | +25bp 28 Oct, first hike since Jul 2023 | Wed 9 Dec | ≈45% for another hike in December; a second hike fully priced by January (Reuters via MarketScreener) | Hiking, careful |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Hold ≈97% (€STR futures, FinChiefs); ≈20bp priced by year-end (Newsquawk), ≈80% December (derived); 34 of 34 houses for a hold | Hold, December live |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct ≈14:00 (time not fixed) + Outlook Report | 0 of Bloomberg survey for October; 83% expect December (22 Oct). OIS ≈88% by December (13 Oct, stale) | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30 | 87–90% for 4.85% (The Adviser 87%, TE 88%, ABC ≈90%, 28 Oct after CPI). All big four call a hike | Hike priced |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | ≈98% for +25bp (centralbank.watch, 27 Oct, pre-Budget). OBR assumes Bank Rate above 4.5% by the horizon end | Hike priced |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct | LPR Fri 20 Nov | 28 Oct fix 6.7165 vs 6.6734 estimate, 431 pips weak (investingLive, Newsquawk; corroborated) | Leaning against CNY |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Riks held 24 Sep · Norges +25bp 24 Sep | Riks Wed 4 Nov · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | TE model expects Riksbank 2.00%. Norges 4.50% confirmed on its own release (resolves No. 037's 4.25/4.50 conflict) | Hawkish |
| BCB · Banxico | 13.75% · 6.50% | BCB −25bp 16 Sep · Banxico held 24 Sep | Copom Thu 5 Nov 08:30 · Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 | Polymarket: Copom hold 59.6% (26 Oct); Banxico hold 86% (thin markets) | Watch BCB |
| RBI · BoK · SNB | 5.50% · 3.00% · 0.00% | RBI +25bp 7 Oct · BoK held 22 Oct | BoK 26 Nov · RBI 2–4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec | SNB ≈88–90% hold (centralbank.watch, partly stale) | Mixed |
Fed read-out. The decision was the expected hold; the vote was not. A Governor and a voting Reserve Bank president both wanted 25bp now, and the statement removed the September sentence tying the policy setting to a return to 2% in favour of "the accumulation of more information". Treasuries bear-steepened on the day: TE late Wednesday had the 2-year ≈4.74–4.78% and the 10-year ≈5.03–5.05%, with the 30-year ≈5.36% (vendor; the official par row for 28 October posts ≈09:00 AEDT). The par row for 27 October, posted overnight, has 2-year 4.70%, 5-year 4.82%, 10-year 4.99%, 30-year 5.30% (verified). The meeting-schedule change Warsh announced, if confirmed by a Fed release, reduces the number of decision points the market must price from 2027.
BoC. A 25bp hike to 2.50%, the first since July 2023, with the Governing Council saying "there could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, we will proceed carefully" (BNN Bloomberg; corroborated). The MPR lifts 2026 GDP to ≈1.0% from 0.7% and the 2027 CPI average to ≈3.1% from 2.0%, with inflation back at 2% only by mid-2028. Canada's 2-year hit 3.441%, a high since August 2024 (Reuters; verified as reported).
ECB and BoJ. Both are holds. For the ECB the question is TPI and France (theme 4); Econostream's Tone Meter turned slightly less hawkish on 26 October. For the BoJ it is whether the Outlook Report says underlying inflation has "reached" 2%; Tokyo October CPI lands at 10:30 AEDT Friday (headline and core 2.7% expected, core-core 2.8% from 3.0%; Mace News).
Regional briefs
United States
A hawkish hold into a heavy data morning. See §02 for the session. Data: Tuesday's Conference Board 91.7, durable goods +1.8% and new home sales 676k against 645k expected (Zacks; corroborated); Wednesday's EIA crude draw of 1.9mb against a small build expected. Thursday 08:30 ET (23:30 AEDT): Q3 GDP advance (3.0% saar consensus; GDPNow 3.5%) and September PCE (headline 3.6% y/y, core 3.1%; Newsquawk). Friday: ECI and Chicago PMI. Treasury's refunding dealer meetings run 29–30 October (Treasury agenda; verified); the announcement date is not confirmed. Midterms Tuesday: Democratic House 91%, Senate 65% on Kalshi and Polymarket (DeFiRate, 28 Oct 10:09 ET); NBC's likely-voter generic ballot D 52, R 43. Amazon reports Thursday after the close ET (consensus EPS $1.96, revenue $202.2bn).
Euro area
Flat into the ECB. The DAX rose 0.44% to 25,704.02, a five-week intraday high (dpa-AFX via finanzen.at; verified, prior ties); the CAC was unchanged at 7,886.96 and the Stoxx 600 +0.06% (Boursorama 18:19 CET). Bunds sold off at the front: Schatz 3.10% (+5.3bp), Bund 3.38% (+2.6bp), OAT 4.94% (+2.5bp), BTP 4.52% (Boursorama, TE). Dutch TTF touched €100/MWh for the first time since December 2022 (Newsquawk; verified), above the €75 in the ECB's adverse scenario. Friday brings the euro-area Q3 flash GDP and German, French, Italian and Spanish CPIs; the October flash HICP is 4 November (prior 3.8%). The EU–Canada summit runs 29–30 October.
United Kingdom
Healey's first Budget was the one gilts wanted. Headroom against the stability rule is ≈£15bn in 2029-30 (£14.5bn on Newsquawk's reading) from £23.6bn in March, with a 56% chance of being met (Spectator, GBAF/Reuters, Newsquawk; corroborated). The OBR cut 2027 GDP to 1.0% from 1.6% on the energy shock and raised 2026 to 1.2%; borrowing runs 4.2% of GDP in 2026 falling to 1.8% by 2030-31, and debt peaks at 83.8%. The bank surcharge rises to 6% from 3% (8% had been floated), funding a £100 energy-bill payment; a First-Time Buyer ISA replaces the LISA. The DMO remit is £250.6bn (£249.6bn expected) with long-dated issuance cut to £15.5bn from £22.4bn. The gilt 10-year traded down to 5.30% and closed ≈5.34% (Boursorama), the narrowest Budget-day range since 2020 (Bloomberg via briefs.co); the 30-year fell ≈3bp to ≈5.71% (TE). The FTSE 100 rose ≈0.07%, led by banks once the surcharge came in below 8%.
Japan
Chips again, into the BoJ. The Nikkei rose for a second day to between 63,954 (+1.08%) and 64,053 (+1.24%) on two Trading Economics items, both of which tie to the 63,268 prior; the official archive did not serve 28 October, so the close is unverified and shown as a range. Renesas +7.6%, Sumco +6.6%, Tokyo Electron +4.4%, with Kioxia, Ibiden and Advantest higher; Sony −2.8%, Toyota −1.6%. JGB 10-year ≈2.83% (+4bp), 30-year ≈3.88% (+6bp) (TE). USD/JPY ≈158.0. The BoJ decides Friday (§05); the MPM runs 29–30 October with the Outlook Report on the 30th and the next meeting 17–18 December (boj.or.jp; verified).
China & Hong Kong
A relief day on the Plenum's last full session. Shanghai rose 0.91% to ≈3,681.5 and the CSI 300 0.85% to ≈4,083.87, with Zhongji Innolight +10.3% and Cambricon +4.9% recovering Tuesday's chip losses (TE, CFD-based; arithmetic ties; corroborated). The Hang Seng rose ≈0.2% to ≈23,095; SMIC +5.4%, Lenovo +6.2%. Mainland investors have been net sellers of about HK$20bn of Hong Kong stocks this month (TE). This is the Fifth Plenum (26–29 October), not the Fourth as carried in earlier editions; its theme is discipline and personnel before the 2027 Congress, and a Xinhua communiqué is expected today (Reuters factbox; corroborated). The PBoC fixed 431 pips weak of the estimate again (6.7165 against 6.6734). Official PMIs are expected Saturday (date unconfirmed). Trump–Xi at APEC Shenzhen 18–19 November is carried from No. 037.
Emerging markets and Israel
Korea's AI trade went vertical. The KOSPI rose 6.63% to 6,012.44 (+374.10; TE, arithmetic ties; corroborated), through 6,000 for the first time on this desk's records, after SK hynix reported Q3 operating profit of ₩83.33tn, more than seven times a year earlier and ≈7% above consensus, with ₩60tn of extra shareholder returns; Samsung rose 5.74% before its results today. Taiwan's TAIEX rose ≈2.04% to ≈47,036 (TE, CFD-based; unverified). India fell: Sensex −0.48% to 73,246.03, Nifty −0.22% to 22,698.85, on IT and energy (Liquide; corroborated). Israel: with 85.6% counted (excluding soldiers' double envelopes) Ynet's seat count is Likud 26, Eisenkot's Yashar! 21, Joint List 13, Bennett's Beyachad 12, giving Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, eight short of 61, and Eisenkot's 48 with the Arab parties on 19 (verified as reported; not an official result). More than 500,000 double-envelope ballots are counted through Thursday; the official result is 4 November and a caretaker period looks likely.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA after CPI
The cash rate is 4.60%. The print matched the hawkish end of the big four's range: trimmed mean +1.0% q/q and 3.7% y/y against the RBA's August forecasts of 0.8% and 3.4%; headline +1.3% q/q; September monthly CPI 4.3% y/y. Deputy Governor Hauser had said the week before that the outlook was "materially worse" than forecast (ABC). Pricing for 3 November is 87–90%, from ≈60% before the release (The Adviser, TE, ABC; corroborated); centralbank.watch's 28 October stamp still showed ≈58% and almost certainly predates the release. Bank calls: CBA moved from hold to a 25bp "insurance hike" then a December hold; NAB moved to a hike then a pause, noting 4.85% is about 150bp above its ≈3.4% neutral estimate; Westpac and ANZ reaffirmed November; UBS also calls 4.85%. On Westpac's further path the reports conflict (The Adviser: February likeliest; ABC quoting Ellis: further hikes not the base case). The Board meets 2–3 November with the SMP; Hauser speaks on 5 November at 17:45 (RBA Coming Up; verified). The Governor and senior staff appeared at Senate Estimates on 28 October; the content was not retrieved.
Markets: a round trip on the print
Equities. The ASX 200 rallied about 0.9% to ≈8,928 by 11:05, after the release, then faded to close ≈8,847, about 3 points lower (ABC 16:15, TE summary; corroborated, not obtained to two decimals; TE's 8,834.30 quote is a CFD print and is not used). Miners and rare earths led (Arafura about +10%, NEXTDC +9.3% on a financing update, Iluka +8.2%, Lynas +7.3%, Sandfire +4.8%, PLS +3.8%, MinRes +3.1%); energy fell with Woodside −3.2%, Ampol −3.8%, Yancoal −3.7%, Whitehaven −2.4%; Reece −8.8% on downgrades; the majors were up 0.3–1% (Westpac +1%). Rates. 2-year 4.99% (+7bp), 3-year 4.92% (+4bp), 10-year 5.21% (+5bp) (TE, level differences; TE's own change column understates the moves). 3s10s 29bp. Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.7034 (+13 pips) and AUD/NZD 1.2543 (+208 pips), both verified; AUD/USD ≈0.7053 late in New York after the Fed (TE; New York basis, not blended). CBA names AUD/USD support at 0.6951.
China and the commodity link
Iron ore 62% was ≈$90.70/t on 27 October (TE), still in the two-year-low zone; no Asian-session print for 28 October was obtained. LME copper cash rose to $14,625/t on 27 October, with cash ≈$190 over three-month, a backwardation, and stocks 272,725t (Westmetall; verified). The index on Wednesday followed rare earths and lithium rather than iron ore, the same pattern as Tuesday: the China channel works through transition metals while the bulk channel stays weak. The Plenum communiqué and Saturday's PMIs are the next inputs.
New Zealand
The RBNZ held at 2.75% (4–3) against a priced hike (§04, theme 2). NZD/USD fell as much as 1.7% to ≈0.5580 and was ≈0.5629 late in New York (TE); interest.co.nz put the immediate drop at about 75 pips against the US dollar and 100 against the Australian. The NZX 50 edged up ≈0.08% to ≈13,691 (TE; corroborated) with Hallenstein +3.1% and Freightways +2.2%. Q3 labour data are 4 November (unemployment 5.6%); the election is Saturday 7 November.
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · 87–90% for 4.85% |
| CPI Q3 q/q · trimmed mean q/q · TM y/y | 1.3% · 1.0% · 3.7% | TM 3.6% (Q2) · RBA fcst 0.8% / 3.4% | Q4: late January |
| Monthly CPI (Sep) y/y · m/m · TM · WM | 4.3% · 0.8% · 3.6% · 3.4% | Aug 4.0% · 0.4% sa · 3.5% (rev.) | Oct: late November |
| Fuel · electricity · rents · insurance (y/y) | +23.6% · +12.8% · +3.6% · +5.4% | Fuel +9.4% m/m | ABS, verified |
| Import/export prices Q3 · PPI Q3 | — | Consensus not obtained this run | Today 11:30 · Fri 30 Oct 11:30 |
| Private credit (Sep) | — | This week (date unconfirmed) | |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.99 · 4.92 · 5.21% | +7 · +4 · +5bp on Wednesday | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.7034 · 1.2543 | 0.7021 · 1.2335 (27 Oct) | Daily 16:00 |
| NZ OCR | 2.75% | Held 4–3 against a priced hike | December MPS |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V023 (long AUD/NZD) was the view the week's decisions were most likely to resolve, and the RBNZ hold did it: the RBA table printed 1.2543, +1.85% from the ≈1.2315 entry and 293 pips above the 1.2250 stop. We do not add at a 13-year high. Written today, before the next print: the stop rises to two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400, which would close the view with the bias having paid (scored RIGHT, by the ledger's definition); and two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT. Conviction stays Low. V006: the ASX traded through 8,900 intraday (≈8,928) and closed ≈8,847; intraday prints do not count, so 0 of 2. V025: the 27 October dedicated row is 159.4bp. V017: IG 88bp and CCC 1,321bp on 27 October, both tighter; HY's row had not posted. V024: December settled $113.88 on Tuesday. V031: unmarked — the Nasdaq-100 close for 28 October was not obtained, and the Microsoft and Alphabet reactions were not obtained. Marking it is Friday's first action.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 159.4bp (27 Oct, verified), +3bp on the day; ≈+65bp from a ≈94bp entry. Wednesday ≈156bp derived from Boursorama (not the mark). ECB tonight with TPI questions expected; Senate takes the social-security bill 9 Nov; S&P 27 Nov | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp (19.4bp away). CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED: IG 88bp (27 Oct, −2), CCC 1,321bp (27 Oct, −24), HY 330bp (26 Oct; 27 Oct not posted). Two sessions of tightening into the mega-cap capex prints; private-credit gates (BCRED capped a third quarter, secondary) keep the tail live | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (271bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (25bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | ≈8,847 against 9,005.9: +1.76% in favour. CPI-day rally to ≈8,928 failed; energy and banks mixed, rare earths led. RBA hike ≈88% priced for Tuesday | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (≈53 points away; 0 of 2; intraday prints do not count) |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | UNMARKED for 28 Oct (close not obtained). Last mark ≈29,651 on 27 Oct (single source), ≈1.6% against the 29,187.55 entry. Nasdaq Composite +0.27% on Wednesday. Microsoft beat on revenue and Azure (single source), reaction not obtained; Alphabet not obtained; AMZN Friday 07:00 AEDT | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (≈4% above the last mark) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2543 on the RBA 4pm table, 28 Oct (verified), +208 pips on the day, +1.85% against ≈1.2315. RBNZ held 4–3 against a priced hike; RBA ≈88% for Tuesday. The divergence thesis has been paid; the position is now about keeping it | CHANGED TODAY (pre-committed): STOP RAISED to two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2400 (from 1.2250). NEW: two consecutive RBA-table closes at or above 1.2600 close it RIGHT (57 pips away) |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December settled $113.88 on 27 Oct (corroborated); ≈$115–116 on 28 Oct (vendor). January ≈$110.5 on 27 Oct (Investing close, unverified as a settle). Post-midterm strike planning reported; EIA draw; Ras Tanura claim unconfirmed | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$26–29 below); December settles in $86.53–89.53 count until Friday's expiry. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Ledger. Six views open; 25 closed: 3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 18 decided calls have been right. No view closed today. The pre-committed 1.2600 condition is how V023's gain gets booked, without a judgement call after the fact.
Portfolio-level read. Four of the week's six decisions are in, and the two that mattered most for this book went the way the views leaned: Australia hot, New Zealand hesitant. The Fed outcome reinforces the two High-conviction funding-stress views (V017, V025) only indirectly: two dissents for a hike keep the long end above 5%, but credit spreads are still tightening, which argues for patience on V017 rather than for adding. Tonight's PCE and the ECB, then Amazon and the BoJ, are the remaining events this week. We would not add gross before Tuesday's RBA and midterms.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 20 October; the report as of 27 October publishes Friday US time (Saturday AEDT). Nets are this desk's arithmetic from the raw file (derived from verified inputs). Sentiment pages are as of the 27 October close unless dated.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 20 October (unchanged since No. 037) | |||
| UST 2y · 5y · 10y | −1,285,548 · −2,117,544 · −2,107,224 | +81,860 · −13,153 · +98,713 | Covering at the front end and in 10s |
| Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond | −318,477 · −162,757 · −804,808 | +17,381 · −8,737 · −89,079 | Shorts added only at the very long end |
| Six-contract Treasury total | −6,796,358 | +86,985 | Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure |
| E-mini S&P · Nasdaq-100 mini | −371,245 · +950 | +37,481 · +12,543 | TFF Nasdaq net re-derived this run at +950 (No. 037 carried −7,688; §13) |
| AUD · NZD · JPY · EUR · GBP · CAD | +52,497 · −19,280 · −22,890 · −68,840 · +24,104 · −91,113 | +1,906 · −7,661 · +10,783 · −839 · +13,791 · −3,001 | Legacy non-commercial disagrees in sign on AUD (−127,292), JPY (+69,878) and GBP (−80,420): both real, different universes. Wednesday's AUD/NZD move is against legacy NZD shorts (−58,149) only in the sense that they were already short |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA Flow Show (EPFR, week to 21 Oct) | Equities +$55.6bn · tech +$18.8bn | Consumer −$2.1bn, 2nd largest outflow on record | Bull & Bear 7.2 (from 7.4). Hartnett: tactically risk-off to mid-November, 30y toward 5%, buy small caps, REITs, defensives (Finvaulta summary) |
| ICI money funds (week to 21 Oct) | $7,944.6bn | +$21.49bn | Institutional +$24.01bn, retail −$2.52bn (verified). Next release Thursday US time |
| US spot BTC ETFs (Farside via relays) | +$176.0m (27 Oct) | IBIT +151.5, FBTC +24.5 | Corroborated by three relays; ETH ETFs −$60.2m (single source). 28 Oct not obtained |
| Cash ETFs (13-week) | +$41.6bn | z = +2.11 | Fear & Greed replica safe-haven component (27 Oct) |
| Surveys, volatility and breadth | |||
| AAII (week to 21 Oct) | Bulls 36.9% · bears 45.8% | Spread −8.9 | Next survey today US time |
| Fear & Greed replica (27 Oct) | 18 — extreme fear | 13 on 26 Oct; 44 a month ago | Eight sessions in extreme fear; all eight components lean fear |
| VIX · VIX3M · SKEW (27 Oct) | 17.52 · 19.57 · 149.2 | Ratio 0.895 (0.922 prior); contango day 141 | Nov VIX future 18.95, Dec 19.07. SKEW 96th percentile since 1990: tails expensive |
| Put/call (26 Oct) | Total 0.86 · equity 0.60 · index 0.96 | 9-day total 0.88, 67th pct | "Cautious" on the replica's own label |
| % S&P above 200-day · Hindenburg | 60.6% (26 Oct) · inactive | Long-run mean 65% | McClellan +26.0 (from +13.1); new lows 4.07%, highs 1.90%; SPY back above its 50-day |
| BofA FMS (October; survey 2–8 Oct) | Cash 3.9% · net 44% OW equities | Crowded: long semis 45% | Tail risk: disorderly yields 31%. Stocks-to-bonds rotation trigger: 10y at 5.9%. 30% expect AI capex cuts (secondary summaries) |
| FactSet (23 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +29.5% | 83% beat EPS; 66% beat revenue | CY26 +33.1%, CY27 +16.0%; bottom-up target 9,314 (verified) |
| Sell-side (dated) | GS Snider 8,000 YE (22 Oct) · MS Wilson 8,000, midterms a "clearing event" (27 Oct, secondary) | Yardeni 8,400 is dated 26 Aug | Not current; excluded |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 29 October — Plenum communiqué, Samsung, then US GDP and PCE | ||||||
| Thu | ≈09:00 | Wed 18:00 | Official US par curve, 28 Oct · settled Fed Rate Monitor (≈08:05) | M | ||
| Thu | 11:30 | Wed 20:30 | AU import/export price indexes, Q3 | — | — | L |
| Thu | ≈12:15 | Wed 21:15 | PBoC USD/CNY fix | 6.7165 | L | |
| Thu | day | — | Samsung Q3 results · China Fifth Plenum communiqué (Xinhua) · Israel double-envelope count · EU–Canada summit · Treasury refunding dealer meetings | M | ||
| Thu | 20:00 | 05:00 | Euro-area economic sentiment · Swedish GDP | L | ||
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US Q3 GDP (advance) · Sep PCE headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · y/y · jobless claims | 3.0% · 0.5% · 3.6% · 0.3% · 3.1% | 2.2% · 0.3% · 3.4% · 0.2% · 3.0% | H |
| Friday 30 October — ECB, Amazon, Tokyo CPI, BoJ, Brent December expiry, euro-area GDP | ||||||
| Fri | 00:15 · 00:45 | Thu 09:15 · 09:45 | ECB decision · Lagarde press conference | Hold | DFR 2.50% | H |
| Fri | ≈07:00 | Thu 16:00 | Amazon Q3 results (call 14:00 PT) · Apple date not confirmed | EPS $1.96 · rev $202.2bn | H | |
| Fri | 10:30 | Thu 19:30 | Tokyo CPI (Oct) headline · core · core-core | 2.7% · 2.7% · 2.8% | 2.7% · 2.7% · 3.0% | M |
| Fri | 11:30 | Thu 20:30 | AU PPI Q3 | — | — | M |
| Fri | ≈14:00 | Thu ≈23:00 | BoJ decision + Outlook Report (time not fixed) · Ueda press conference | Hold | 1.25% | H |
| Fri | 19:00 | 04:00 | Deribit monthly expiry (≈$11–12bn BTC, max pain ≈$79k, 17 Oct read) · Brent December last trading day | M | ||
| Fri | evening | Fri | France, Germany, Italy, Spain GDP and CPI · euro-area Q3 flash GDP (PMI-implied 0.3% q/q) · Canada GDP (Aug) | EZ 0.6% q/q | H | |
| Fri | 23:30 | 08:30 | US ECI (Q3) · Chicago PMI (00:45 Sat) | M | ||
| Sat 31 | ≈12:30 | Fri | China official PMIs (Oct; date not confirmed) · CFTC COT (as of 27 Oct) | M | ||
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 1–7 Nov | — | — | OPEC+ Sun 1 · US DST ends Sun 1 (AEDT = EST + 16h) · China RatingDog mfg PMI Mon 2 12:45 · US ISM mfg Tue 3 02:00 · Japan closed Tue 3 (Culture Day) · Melbourne Cup Tue 3 (Victoria only; ASX open) · RBA Tue 3 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 · Riksbank Wed 4 · NZ Q3 jobs Wed 4 08:45 · EZ flash HICP Wed 4 (date single source) · Israel official result Wed 4 · Copom Thu 5 08:30 · ISM services Thu 5 02:00 · Norges 20:00, BoE 23:00 Thu 5 · Banxico Fri 6 06:00 · US October payrolls Sat 7 00:30 · NZ election Sat 7 | H | ||
| 8 Nov – 18 Dec | — | — | French Senate takes the social-security bill Mon 9 · Veterans Day Wed 11 (US bonds closed) · UK CPI 18 Nov · APEC Shenzhen 18–19 Nov · PBoC LPR 20 Nov · BoK 26 Nov · S&P on France 27 Nov · US payrolls 4 Dec · RBA Tue 8 Dec · FOMC + SEP Thu 10 Dec 06:00; BoC Wed 9 Dec · funding to 11 Dec · ECB, BoE Thu 17 Dec · BoJ Fri 18 Dec | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement (ForexFactory did not load). Consensus from Newsquawk, Admiral Markets, investingLive and Mace News (26–28 Oct). Changes since Wednesday's edition: Copom decides Wednesday 4 November at 16:30 ET, 08:30 AEDT Thursday (narwhal; single source), and Banxico Thursday 5 November at 14:00 ET, 06:00 AEDT Friday; the 7-year auction date was not confirmed; the China plenum is the Fifth, ending today.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hot PCE confirms a December Fed hike | GDP and PCE tonight 23:30 AEDT; payrolls Sat 7 Nov | ≈22bp priced for 9 Dec (investingLive, post-presser) | 2-year through 4.80%; 10-year holds above 5%; dollar recovers the presser dip | 2-year options; V017 |
| 2 | AI-capex funding meets mega-cap results | MSFT beat on Azure (48%, single source); GOOGL not obtained; AMZN Fri 07:00 AEDT; Apple date unconfirmed | Semis are the FMS's most crowded long (45%); 30% of FMS respondents expect capex cuts | V031 | |
| 3 | US strike on Iran after the midterms, or a confirmed hit on Saudi exports | WSJ: "short but intense" offensive after 3 Nov; Houthi Ras Tanura claim unconfirmed; Iran's reply to Qatar's draft due this week | Kalshi WTI ≥$115 by 31 Dec ≈37% (27 Oct, via DeFiRate; carried) | Brent through $120; diesel; EM importers; renewed term-premium pressure | V024's residual call |
| 4 | RBA hikes with a hawkish SMP | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 | 87–90% (The Adviser, TE, ABC) | ACGB 3-year through 5%; February priced; AUD crosses higher | V006; V023 |
| 5 | Disorderly long end | Refunding (dealer meetings 29–30 Oct); 10-year back above 5%; gilts and JGBs | FMS: 31% name it the top tail risk | Equity multiple compression; basis-trade stress against 6.8m contracts of LF shorts | Steepeners; low duration |
| 6 | Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY | Mega-cap capex guidance; private-credit gates (BCRED capped a third quarter, secondary source) | HY back through 350bp; CCC through 1,400bp | V017 (High) | |
| 7 | Midterm sweep and policy shock | Tue 3 Nov; results Wed 4 Nov AEDT | Dem House 91%, Senate 65% (Kalshi/Polymarket via DeFiRate, 28 Oct 10:09 ET) | Tariff, sanctions and fiscal reversal risk; post-election Gulf action | Q4 collars |
| 8 | ECB backstop talk compresses France | Lagarde Fri 00:45 AEDT; S&P 27 Nov | OAT–Bund toward the 140bp mirror zone | V025 (High) | |
| 9 | BoJ language shift and a yen squeeze | Fri ≈14:00 AEDT Outlook Report; Tokyo CPI 10:30 | 83% of Bloomberg survey expect December (22 Oct) | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto | Short-dated USD/JPY puts |
| 10 | Korea's vertical move reverses | KOSPI +6.6% in a day through 6,000; Samsung results today | Asia chip beta unwinds; read-across to NDX and TAIEX | V031 | |
| 11 | Israel: caretaker government into a Gulf escalation | Double envelopes counted Thursday; official result 4 Nov | Prolonged coalition talks; regional risk premium | — |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,744.28 | 7,700–7,745 (50/100/200-day cluster) · 7,722.60 (27 Oct) | 7,757 (21 Oct) · 7,815 (6 Oct record) | MAs from Investing.com as of 23 Oct (50d 7,699, 200d 7,717, 100d 7,745; stale three sessions) |
| Nasdaq-100 | — (28 Oct not obtained) | 29,188 (V031 entry) · 28,826 (23 Oct low) | 29,822 · 30,932 (V031 closes) | Last mark ≈29,651 (27 Oct, single source) |
| UST 10y · 2y | 4.99% · 4.70% (par 27 Oct) | 4.96% (22 Oct par) | 5.05% (28 Oct vendor) · 5.09% (16 Oct par) | Par 28 Oct posts ≈09:00 AEDT |
| OAT–Bund | 159.4bp (27 Oct) | 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | 4.92 · 5.21% | 4.80 · 5.10 | 5.00 · 5.26 | Supports and resistances are our reading |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈102.1 · ≈1.116 · ≈158.0 | 101.50 · 1.1100 · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | Carried levels; USD/JPY near resistance into the BoJ |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7034 · 1.2543 (RBA) | 0.6951 (CBA) · 1.2400 (V023 new stop) | 0.7050 (200-day SMA) · 1.2600 (V023 closes RIGHT) | AUD/NZD 1.2602 intraday on ABC, highest since early 2013 |
| Brent (Dec · Jan) | $113.88 settle 27 Oct · ≈$110.5 | $109.52 (Jan, 27 Oct low) · $81.51–84.51 (V024, Jan) | $116.72 (Dec, 23 Oct settle) · $120 | December expires Fri 30 Oct; the January contract becomes the front |
| Gold · Silver | $4,049.40 · $54.09 | $4,024.20 (28 Oct low) · $4,000 · $3,950 | $4,071.60 (28 Oct high) · $4,145 (22 Oct high) | Kitco; $3,950 is our reading |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ≈8,847 | 8,798 (27 Oct low) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | ≈8,928 (28 Oct high) · 8,900 (V006 closes, two closes) · 8,935–8,940 (supply) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 88 / 330 / 1,321bp | CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) | HY 340 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct) | FRED; each series carries its own date |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,414 | $79,000 (Deribit max pain, 17 Oct read) · $76,000 | $81,636 (28 Oct high) · $84,262 | No view open; ≈$12bn options expire Fri 30 Oct |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Thursday event edition after the RBNZ, Australian CPI, UK Budget, BoC and FOMC. Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:10 AEDT; Asia, Australia, Europe and the central-bank sections were drafted first and the US-close block was fetched after 07:05 AEDT, per the timing protocol. The AP tabulation for Wednesday 28 October had not posted at filing, so US cash closes are Yahoo Finance's closing levels (Dow stamped 16:02:28 ET): single source, but each ties exactly to AP's verified Tuesday close plus Yahoo's stated change. A second post-close source was not found. Microsoft's headline results come from a single source (PANews) found at ≈07:30 AEDT; Alphabet's results and both share reactions were not obtained. The Fed Rate Monitor had not refreshed since its 27 October 09:25 ET pre-decision stamp; the chart shows that read, labelled, and the post-presser ≈22bp for December is investingLive's. Primary reads this run: the FOMC statement, the official par curve to 27 October, AP's 27 October tabulation, the ABS CPI release, the RBA 4pm table, FRED, the OAT–Bund dedicated series, Westmetall, Kitco, the BoJ schedule and the CFTC files. Every figure was retrieved on 28–29 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 037
(1) US closes, Tuesday 27 October — material for the record. AP's tabulation, now readable, has the S&P 500 at 7,722.60 (+45.83, +0.6%), not 7,723.05 (+46.28) from Reuters' preliminary close; the Dow 52,377.57 (+15.99), not 52,387.18; the Nasdaq 26,477.81 (+308.43), not 26,479.08; and the Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+32.45, +1.2%), which No. 037 did not obtain. The MarketScreener 16:16 ET quotes No. 037 printed as corroboration were the correct closes. No view was marked on these.
(2) Official par curve, 27 October: 2-year 4.70%, 5-year 4.82%, 10-year 4.99%, 30-year 5.30% (verified), against No. 037's vendor ≈4.75% 2-year and ≈4.996% 10-year.
(3) Brent December, 27 October: settled $113.88 (−$1.93; corroborated), against ≈$114.1 carried as a late vendor level. WTI December settled $99.90 (≈$100.1 carried).
(4) China: the October plenum is the Fifth Plenum of the Central Committee (26–29 October), per a Reuters factbox.
(5) Norges Bank: the policy rate is 4.50% after the 24 September hike (Norges Bank release; verified), resolving No. 037's 4.25%/4.50% conflict.
(6) CFTC Nasdaq-100: this run's re-derivation of the TFF leveraged-fund Nasdaq-100 mini net is +950 (+12,543 on the week), against −7,688 (+14,203) carried in No. 037. Unresolved: the two may be from different Nasdaq contract rows; neither is used in a view.
(7) Discharged from Wednesday's list: Q3 CPI; the RBNZ decision; RBA 4pm 28 October; ASX 28 October (≈8,847, not to two decimals); OAT–Bund 27 October row (159.4bp); official par 27 October; FRED 27 October for IG and CCC; Brent December 27 October settle; AP 27 October including the Russell; Israel seat count (Ynet, 85.6% counted).
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Trimmed mean y/y: 3.7% (quarterly series; ANZ, CBA, The Adviser) against 3.6% (ABC); the ABS monthly-series trimmed mean is 3.6%, so the two figures are different series, both shown and named. European closes: RTTNews (13:28 ET) had DAX −0.08%, Stoxx −0.23%, FTSE −0.3%; dpa-AFX's official DAX close (+0.44%) and Boursorama's 18:19 CET table were used, RTT treated as intraday. Nikkei: 63,954 (+1.08%) and 64,053 (+1.24%) in two TE items; range shown, official archive unavailable. US 2-year (vendor): TE table 4.72%, TE text and Desk 1 ≈4.74%, Boursorama 4.77%; range shown, par is the mark. Gilt 10-year: 5.33% (TE headline), 5.351% (TE table), 5.340% (Boursorama); ≈5.34% used. UK headroom: £15bn (Spectator, Reuters, TE) against £14.5bn (Newsquawk); both shown. OBR 2027 CPI: 3.4% and 3.5% in two Newsquawk items, "almost 4%" in the Spectator; not used in a figure. DXY: TE showed 102.43 earlier and 102.105 after the presser; the later read is used. USD/JPY: Investing.com's undated 157.47 with a 156.84 prior close does not match any verified prior and was rejected as a cache. Westpac's RBA path: The Adviser (February likeliest) against ABC quoting Ellis (further hikes not the base case); both attributed. Meta's report date: 22 October (investingLive) against 21 October carried; immaterial.
Single-source and unverified items
US cash closes for 28 October (Yahoo) · Microsoft fiscal Q1 results (PANews) · Warsh press-conference quotes and the meeting-schedule change (investingLive, American Banker; no transcript or Fed release) · post-presser December pricing (investingLive) · Brent January 27 October close (Investing history) and the derived ≈$3.35 front spread · TAIEX close (TE CFD) · Nikkei close range · Houthi Ras Tanura claim · WSJ post-midterm strike report (via Times of Israel) · OPEC+ "unchanged" for Sunday (FinanceFeeds) · RBNZ guidance quotes (secondary) · BoC statement text (investingLive, BNN Bloomberg; the Bank's release page was a placeholder at fetch) · BofA Flow Show and FMS figures (secondary summaries) · ETH ETF flows · private-credit gating (secondary blog) · Copom and Banxico odds (thin Polymarket books) · Copom time (narwhal).
Not obtained
AP tabulation 28 Oct · Nasdaq-100 close 28 Oct · Alphabet results · Microsoft guidance and after-hours reaction · settled Fed Rate Monitor · official par 28 Oct · VIX close (FRED) · Brent December and January ICE settles 28 Oct; January official settle 27 Oct · WTI settle 28 Oct · FRED HY 27 Oct · OAT–Bund 28 Oct dedicated row · ASX 200 close to two decimals and breadth · SPI overnight · ASX rate tracker after CPI · RBNZ post-decision OIS · Bullock's Senate Estimates remarks · FTSE MIB, IBEX and HS Tech closes · German GfK, euro-area M3 and Spanish data actuals · API inventories · IG issuance · Farside 28 Oct · consensus for AU import prices and PPI · ForexFactory calendar (did not load).
Friday's first verification targets
(1) Nasdaq-100 close 28 Oct and the Microsoft/Alphabet reaction (V031 unmarked). (2) AP tabulation for 28 October. (3) RBA 4pm 29 October (V023: new stop 1.2400, profit line 1.2600). (4) ASX 200 28 and 29 October closes to two decimals (V006). (5) Official par 28 October and the settled Fed read. (6) FRED HY 27–28 October (V017). (7) Brent December and January ICE settles 27–28 October (V024; December expires Friday). (8) OAT–Bund 28 October row (V025). (9) US GDP and PCE; ECB statement.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- Federal Reserve — 28 Oct statement · FOMC calendar · investingLive — Warsh presser · American Banker — presser · Yahoo Finance — Wednesday live and closes · AP via La Nación — 27 Oct tabulation · TheStreet — 28 Oct · StockTitan — movers · Reuters via Investing.com — FOMC reaction · Zacks — 28 Oct · 24/7 Wall St — Microsoft preview
- US Treasury — par yield curve · TE — US yields · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · DeFiRate — Fed odds · DeFiRate — midterms · Treasury — refunding dealer agenda · Newsquawk — week in focus
- CFTC — TFF · CFTC — legacy CME · BofA Flow Show summary · BofA FMS summary · ICI MMF · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call · Hindenburg · breadth · FactSet — 23 Oct · Investing — S&P technicals · Motley Fool — Goldman target
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — Coming Up · interest.co.nz — RBNZ hold · investingLive — RBNZ · XTB — NZD · Bank of Canada · BNN Bloomberg — BoC · Reuters via MarketScreener — Canada yields · TE — FX · investingLive — PBoC fix · BoJ — schedule · Mace News — Tokyo CPI · FinChiefs — ECB · Econostream · centralbank.watch — BoE · Norges Bank
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — Bund · OAT · Gilt · JGB · Newsquawk — Budget analysis · Spectator — Budget · GBAF/Reuters — headroom · briefs.co — gilts · Portfolio Adviser — gilts
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- ABS — CPI September 2026 · Savings.com.au — CPI · Savings.com.au — big four · MacroBusiness — CPI · The Adviser — pricing and banks · CommBank — November call · ABC — markets live, 28 Oct · TE — ASX · TE — ACGB · ABS — calendar · TE — NZX
- TE — KOSPI · TE — China · TE — Hang Seng · Liquide — India close · Reuters factbox — Plenum · Westmetall — copper
Europe and geopolitics
- dpa-AFX via finanzen.at — DAX close · Boursorama — European close · RTTNews — Europe · Newsquawk — headlines · Newsquawk — ECB preview
- Reuters via Internazionale — Qatar draft · Times of Israel — liveblog · Ynet — Israel count · Gulf News — Gulf live · Nation Thailand — oil settles
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Reuters via Kitco — EIA · Reuters via Kitco — gold · Kitco — gold chart · TE — Brent · Investing — Brent history · BOE Report — oil · FinanceFeeds — Brent · Windward — Hormuz · TankerMap — Hormuz · TE — iron ore
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · CoinGecko · crypto.news — BTC post-FOMC · FinanceFeeds — ETF flows · CryptoTicker — expiry