The bottom line
- Australia's Q3 CPI at 11:30 is the most important print for this book this week, and it lands after this edition. The big four expect trimmed mean at 0.9–1.0% q/q (3.5–3.6% y/y) against the RBA's 0.8% forecast, and headline at 1.2–1.3% q/q, 3.9% y/y (Savings.com.au; investingLive); the September monthly is expected at 4.2% y/y from 4.0% (Market Index, single source). Pricing for 3 November is ≈60–66% (TE 66%, no timestamp; centralbank.watch ≈60%), up from ≈22% on 20 October. The ASX 200 rose 0.46% to 8,850.1 (verified) on materials (+2.78%), leaving V006's underweight +1.73% in favour and 49.9 points from its 8,900 close line. The RBA table had AUD/NZD at 1.2335 for a second day (verified), 85 pips above V023's stop, with the RBNZ half an hour after CPI. A 1.0% core print, on our reading, takes November close to fully priced.
- The AI rally broadened on Tuesday: the Nasdaq rose 1.2% and Asia's chip markets led, while Boeing held the Dow flat. Reuters' preliminary closes have the S&P 500 up 46.28 points (+0.60%) to 7,723.05, the Nasdaq 309.69 (+1.18%) to 26,479.08 and the Dow 25.60 (+0.05%) to 52,387.18; MarketScreener's 16:16 ET quotes agree within 10 points and show the Nasdaq-100 at 29,651.44 (+1.29%) (corroborated; AP not readable at filing). Boeing fell 10.7% on a wider loss and a delivery-target cut, Xylem 14.2% and refiners 7–9% as crude fell; Pentair rose 12.8%, Dell 7.4%. In Asia the KOSPI rose 3.09% and the Nikkei 1.73% on chips. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) is now ≈1.6% against at ≈29,651; Microsoft and Alphabet report about two hours after the FOMC statement.
- V025 is upgraded to High: the OAT–Bund dedicated series printed 156.4bp for 26 October. That meets the condition written in No. 033 — the 23 October (171.8bp) and 26 October rows both at or above 150bp, including the first print after Moody's held Aa3 negative (ideal-investisseur, stamped 26/10 17h35; verified). Relief compressed the spread by 15.4bp; Tuesday was flat at ≈156bp on TE's yields (derived). The social-security vote reported for 27 October did not happen: the bill died at first reading on 23 October (115–1) and goes to the Senate from 9 November, with an ordinance route open after 26 November (verified). The mirror stands: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp.
- Oil fell for a second day on diplomacy, but the front spread held at $5. Brent December settled $115.81 on Monday and traded about $114.1 late Tuesday (−1.5%, TE; Reuters had $113.72 at 13:44 ET); WTI December slipped to about $100 after touching $99.83 (vendor, not settles). January settled $110.74 on Monday, so the same-table December–January spread was $5.07, against $5.02 on 23 October. Iran's Security Council chief met the Supreme Leader on terms to end the war and Pezeshkian was in Moscow; Al Jazeera reports Trump said strikes would not come before the 3 November midterms. Energy was the worst S&P sector. V024's January band ($81.51–84.51) is ≈$25–28 below; December expires on Friday.
- The front end held its hawkish lean into the Fed: the 5-year tailed and consumer confidence jumped. The $70bn 5-year stopped at 4.845%, a 0.4bp tail, with a 2.33 bid-to-cover and indirects at 60.05% against a 64.0% average (Newsquawk, RTT; corroborated). The Conference Board index rose to 91.7 from 84.2 against ≈81 expected as gasoline eased (AP; verified) and September durable goods rose 1.8% (TE). The official par curve for Monday has the 2-year at 4.68% and the 10-year at 5.00% (verified). The only Fed read available at filing is Investing.com's pre-open snapshot (09:25 ET): hold 89.7% for Thursday's 05:00 AEDT decision and at least one hike by 9 December ≈81.6%; Kalshi and Polymarket put a hike this week at 5.5–6.5¢ (11:26 ET, via DeFiRate).
- Credit tightened across the stack for the first time in a week, even as the AI funding bill grew. FRED's 26 October rows have IG at 90bp (−1), HY 330bp (−8) and CCC 1,345bp (−11) (verified); V017 (underweight HY/CCC, High) is 25bp from its two-print mirror. Meta's package is ≈$97.5bn in three parts — ≈$25bn of common at $625, a $12.5bn 6.50% mandatory convertible and up to $60bn of non-voting stock from 2027 (TradingKey) — and Meta fell on Tuesday (Reuters). The dollar firmed (DXY ≈102.3, +0.36%; TE), gold rose 1.2% to $4,059.60 (Kitco 15:11 ET; verified) and bitcoin was ≈$80,680 at 07:20 AEDT (CoinGecko).
Overnight recap
Asia-Pacific Tuesday: miners in Sydney, chips in Seoul
Australia. The ASX 200 rose 40.2 points (+0.46%) to 8,850.1 after an early dip to 8,798 (Market Index evening wrap with an in-body 27 October dateline; ABC; ShareTrader; verified). Materials rose 2.78% (BHP +4.3%, South32 +2.6%, uranium names +6.7%), real estate 0.76% and energy 0.63%; financials fell 0.59% and communication services 0.80%. Star Entertainment rose 13% on a return to positive quarterly EBITDA; Amotiv fell 10.5% after withdrawing guidance. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence was 67.9 from 67.7, its fourth week below 70 (Roy Morgan; verified). ACGBs were little changed: 2-year 4.92%, 3-year 4.88%, 10-year 5.16% (TE, level differences). The RBA table had AUD/USD at 0.7021 and AUD/NZD at 1.2335 (verified). The NZX 50 fell 0.4% to 13,680.27 before the RBNZ.
Japan and Korea. The Nikkei rose 1,078 points (+1.73%) to ≈63,268, ending a three-day fall, led by Advantest (about +9%), Ibiden, SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron after the US semiconductor index rose 2.8% on Monday; TOPIX rose 0.61% to ≈3,997 (KuCoin/Nikkei recap, TE text; corroborated, official archive not updated). The KOSPI rose 3.09% to 5,638.34, ending four days of losses, with foreigners buying ₩835.9bn and SK hynix up 5.18% before its results today (MoneyToday; verified). Korea's Q3 GDP grew 1.0% q/q and 3.4% y/y against the BoK's 0.3% and 2.6% (verified).
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India. China's September industrial profits rose 14.4% y/y (August 4.2%) and the market sold anyway: Shanghai −1.33% to 3,648.3, a 14-month low; CSI 300 −1.32% to 4,049.54; ChiNext −3.41%; STAR 50 −4.8%, with the CSI Semiconductor index −5.8% (TE, RTHK; corroborated). The Hang Seng fell 0.7% to ≈23,041 and HS Tech 1.5%. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7171 against a 6.6731 estimate (Newsquawk, single source). Taiwan's TAIEX rose 0.12% to 46,096.23 on reopening (Focus Taiwan; verified). The Nifty was flat at 22,749.75 (verified).
Europe Tuesday: Frankfurt up, London down
The DAX rose 0.71% to 25,590.77 on Infineon and Porsche (+4%) despite Mercedes' profit warning (−4%) (dpa-AFX; corroborated); the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.79% to 6,164.69. The FTSE 100 fell 0.73% to 10,689 as HSBC (Q3 pre-tax profit $9.6bn against $9.7bn expected) and Reckitt (sales guidance cut) both fell more than 6% (TE). The Stoxx 600 closed ≈flat at 640.08 (Investing history; unverified against −0.43% intraday reports); CAC ≈7,888 (+0.52%), FTSE MIB ≈49,609 (+0.86%), IBEX ≈19,186 (+0.80%) on TE quotes whose implied priors do not all reconcile (§13). Euro-area M3 grew 3.5% y/y. Bunds were 3.36%, OATs 4.92%, BTPs 4.52%, gilts 5.35% (TE). The UK Budget is at 23:30 AEDT tonight.
New York Tuesday: tech up, Boeing and refiners down
Reuters' preliminary closes (16:02 ET) have the S&P 500 at 7,723.05 (+0.60%), the Nasdaq at 26,479.08 (+1.18%) and the Dow at 52,387.18 (+0.05%); MarketScreener's 16:16 ET quotes show 7,722.60, 26,477.81 and 52,377.57, with the Nasdaq-100 at 29,651.44 (+1.29%) (corroborated). The Russell 2000 was up ≈1.2% at 15:44 ET (Yahoo); its close was not obtained. The S&P is up 1.30% on the week (derived against AP's 23 October 7,623.68). Energy was the worst sector as crude fell. Leaders: Pentair +12.8%, Dell +7.4%, Cadence +6.5%, Mosaic +6.1%, SoFi about +13% on a beat and raise, GM about +5% on its move to a Nasdaq listing; laggards: Xylem −14.2%, Boeing −10.7%, Valero −9.2%, Marathon Petroleum −7.4%, Phillips 66 −7.0%, Coca-Cola −1.5% on soft North American volume despite a raised outlook (Reuters via MarketScreener; Yahoo; TheStreet). UPS rose about 2% after raising its revenue guide to $92.6bn. The VIX was ≈17.6 late in the session (Yahoo, intraday).
Rates and data. Treasuries were little changed: TE and Yahoo had the 10-year at ≈4.99–5.00% late in the session and the 2-year near 4.75% on TE's basis (vendor; not comparable with par). The official par row for 26 October posted after No. 036: 2-year 4.68%, 5-year 4.84%, 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.31% (verified). The 5-year auction tailed 0.4bp (bullet 5). Data were firm: Conference Board 91.7 (present situation 120.4, expectations 72.6), durable goods +1.8% m/m with core capex orders +0.5%, Richmond Fed −2 (single source).
The Gulf, Brazil and Israel
Gulf. Iran's Security Council chief Rezaei met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on conditions to end the war, a day after the Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani delegation met Pezeshkian in Tehran; Iran has set seven preconditions and said it could accept a 4–5 day implementation period (Al Jazeera, Reuters; corroborated). Qatar's emir and Pezeshkian were in Moscow and China is sending an envoy. The Saudi-led coalition intercepted ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and Riyadh, and falling debris caused damage in Riyadh (SPA via Newsquawk); the Houthis claimed a strike on Ras Tanura with no damage confirmed. Al Jazeera's analysis reports Trump saying strikes would not resume before the midterms; CNN's 96-hour readiness report stands. Brazil. The real recovered about 1.3% to ≈5.35 per dollar (TE); the Treasury cancelled its 27 and 29 October auctions. Israel. Turnout was reported as the highest in 50 years and polls closed at 07:00 AEDT. A Times of Israel liveblog headline reports exit polls with the anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead, Likud the largest party and no clear majority for either side; seat figures were not obtained and these are projections, not results. The official result is due on 4 November.
Wednesday open
No SPI overnight figure could be verified. With the S&P up 0.6%, gold up 1.2%, COMEX copper up ≈1.8% and Brent down ≈1.5%, our inference is a steady ASX open with miners firm and energy soft, then a market that waits for 11:30. The marks that matter today are the CPI, the RBNZ at 12:00, the RBA 4pm table, and the UK Budget tonight.
Market dashboard
Tuesday 27 October: change on the session
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723.05 | +0.60% | +1.30% | Corroborated (Reuters prelim 16:02 ET; 7,676.77 + 46.28 ties; MarketScreener 7,722.60 at 16:16 ET). AP 27 Oct not readable at filing |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 52,387.18 · 26,479.08 | +0.05% · +1.18% | +0.33% · +2.00% | Corroborated (Reuters prelim; both tie to AP's verified Monday closes). Boeing −10.7% held the Dow |
| Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000 | ≈29,651 · — | ≈+1.29% · ≈+1.2% (15:44 ET) | ≈+2.4% · — | NDX MarketScreener quote 16:16 ET (single source). Russell close not obtained; AP Monday 2,786.42 (§13 correction) |
| VIX · VIX3M | ≈17.6 · 19.94 (26 Oct) | ≈−4% | — | Yahoo 15:44 ET, intraday. Monday close 18.39 (term-structure replica); ratio 0.922 |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | ≈640.08 · 25,590.77 | ≈−0.09% · +0.71% | ≈+0.7% · +1.63% | DAX dpa-AFX close (corroborated). Stoxx Investing history, unverified. Monday corrected to 640.66 / 25,410.84 (§13) |
| FTSE 100 · CAC 40 | 10,689 · ≈7,888 | −0.73% · ≈+0.52% | ≈0.0% · ≈+1.4% | FTSE corroborated (TE; 10,767.66 prior). CAC TE quote, unverified |
| FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI | ≈49,609 · ≈19,186 · ≈14,598 | ≈+0.86% · ≈+0.80% · ≈+0.4% | — | TE/finanzen quote headers; implied priors do not reconcile with No. 036 (§13). Unverified |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | ≈63,268 · ≈3,997 | +1.73% · +0.61% | ≈+0.9% | Ties to the official 26 Oct 62,189.65 + 1,078; vendors range 63,232–63,365. Archive not updated |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,648.3 · 4,049.54 | −1.33% · −1.32% | ≈−1.1% · ≈−1.4% | Corroborated (TE, RTHK; arithmetic ties). Shanghai a 14-month low |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | ≈23,041 · ≈3,800 | −0.73% · −1.5% | ≈−0.2% | RTHK; TE 23,021–23,030. HS Tech single source |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,638.34 · 46,096.23 | +3.09% · +0.12% | ≈+1.6% · +0.12% | Both verified, arithmetic ties. TAIEX against 22 Oct (Taiwan closed 23–26 Oct) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 73,598.67 · 22,749.75 | −0.01% · −0.02% | — | Verified (HDFC Sky, Business Standard). Sensex prior conflict (§13) |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,850.1 | +0.46% | +0.62% | Verified (Market Index, ABC, ShareTrader). 49.9 points below V006's 8,900 line. SPI overnight not obtained |
| NZX 50 | 13,680.27 | −0.39% | −0.39% | Verified (The Bottom Line). Third straight fall |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 26 Oct | 4.68 · 4.84 · 5.00 · 5.31% | −1 · +2 · 0 · −2bp | — | Verified (Treasury par curve; 23 Oct 4.69 · 4.82 · 5.00 · 5.33). 27 Oct row posts ≈09:00 AEDT. TE 27 Oct late: 10y ≈4.996%, 30y ≈5.31% (vendor, provisional, never a trigger) |
| 2s10s · 5s30s (par, 26 Oct) | 32 · 47bp | +1 · −4bp | — | Derived from the verified par row |
| 5-year auction ($70bn) | 4.845% | tail 0.4bp | — | Corroborated (Newsquawk, RTT). Cover 2.33 vs 2.31 avg; indirects 60.05% vs 64.0%; directs 29.4%; dealers 10.56% |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.35 · 5.74% | 0 · −0.4bp | — | TE. Budget 23:30 AEDT tonight |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.36 · 4.92 · 4.52% | ≈0 · +1 · +2bp | — | TE late session (corroborated across TE pages) |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 156.4bp (26 Oct) | −15.4bp | — | Verified (stamped 26/10 17h35; OAT 4.93 / Bund 3.37). 27 Oct ≈156bp derived from TE. V025 upgraded to High |
| JGB 10y · 30y | 2.79 · 3.82% | +0.5 · +0.9bp | — | TE |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.92 · 4.88 · 5.16% | +1 · +2 · −1bp | — | TE level differences (TE's own day-change column conflicts). 10y a seven-week low; 3s10s 28bp |
| Canada 10y · Swiss 10y | 3.831 · 0.457% | ≈0 · −1.6bp | — | TE, single source |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS (26 Oct) | 90 · 330 · 1,345bp | −1 · −8 · −11bp | — | Verified (FRED). 23 Oct 91 · 338 · 1,356 (CCC high in FRED's window). 27 Oct posts tonight US time |
| FX | Tue close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ≈102.32 | +0.36% | — | TE, ~15:00 ET snapshot (corroborated across two TE pages); third daily rise, a two-week high |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | ≈1.1149 · ≈1.3323 | −0.29% · −0.26% | — | TE single-currency pages; US-page table 1.1134 · 1.3313. EUR near its lowest since Apr 2025 |
| USD/JPY | ≈157.84 | +0.28% | — | TE; US-page table 157.95 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7021 (RBA) · ≈0.7025 (NY) | −0.14% (RBA) · ≈0.0% (NY) | +0.21% (RBA, vs 0.7006) | RBA 4pm verified. NY TE. Bases not blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2335 (RBA) · ≈0.5692 | 0.00% (RBA) · ≈0.0% | +0.18% (RBA, vs 1.2313) | RBA 4pm verified, unchanged. NY cross ≈1.2362 (TE). 85 pips above V023's stop |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | ≈1.4049 · ≈0.8288 | +0.19% · +0.19% | — | TE. BoC tonight |
| USD/CNY · fix | ≈6.6654 · 6.7171 | −0.04% | — | Fix vs 6.6731 estimate: 440 pips weak (Newsquawk, single source) |
| USD/BRL | ≈5.349 | ≈−1.0% (vs TE's 5.40 close) | — | TE intraday; Monday's close restated by TE to 5.40 (+8.21%) (§13) |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN | ≈95.27 · ≈1,326.5 · ≈18.68 | — · +0.26% · +0.56% | — | TE, single source. INR prior conflict (§13); KRW level and TE narrative disagree |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | ≈$114.1 · settle 26 Oct $115.81 | ≈−1.5% | ≈−2.3% | 27 Oct TE late (114.09–114.31 on one page); Reuters $113.72 at 13:44 ET. Not a settle. 26 Oct settle corroborated. Expires Fri 30 Oct |
| Brent JANUARY | ≈$109.6 · settle 26 Oct $110.74 | ≈−1.0% | ≈−1.9% | Investing 27 Oct intraday (range 109.52–111.90). 26 Oct settle on the same contracts table as 23 Oct |
| Dec–Jan spread | $5.07 (26 Oct) | +0.05 | — | Same-table settles (115.81 − 110.74). 27 Oct intraday ≈$4.83 (06:26 snapshot) |
| WTI DECEMBER | ≈$100.1 · settle 26 Oct $101.76 | ≈−1.6% | — | TE late; touched $99.83 (Reuters 13:44 ET). 26 Oct settle corrected from $101.55 (§13) |
| Henry Hub · TTF | ≈$2.69 · ≈€95.7 | ≈+3% · ≈−0.8% | — | TE. HH off a two-year low; EU storage ≈75%, lowest seasonal level on TE's record |
| Gold (spot) | $4,059.60 | +1.23% | — | Verified (Kitco bid 15:11 ET; range 3,988.50–4,066.70). Change vs No. 036's Kitco mid $4,010.20 |
| Silver · Platinum | ≈$54.3 · ≈$1,535 | ≈+0.6% · ≈−0.7% | — | TE; platinum single source |
| Copper COMEX · LME cash | ≈$6.62/lb · $14,415/t (23 Oct) | ≈+1.8% · — | — | TE; Westmetall 26 Oct row not posted. LME aluminium cash $3,047.50 (26 Oct, verified) |
| Iron ore 62% | ≈$89.7–90.6 | ≈−1.1% | — | Asian session (Market Index, ABC); a two-year low. TE 26 Oct $90.78 |
| Bitcoin | ≈$80,680 | ≈+1.0% | — | CoinGecko ≈07:20 AEDT; change derived against No. 036's $79,908 (CoinGecko signs not shown) |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,344 · $101.1 · $1.32 · $748 | ≈+1.4 · +0.7 · +2.3 · +0.8% | — | CoinGecko; changes derived against No. 036. Total cap $2.80tn; BTC dominance 58.0% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC +$110.3m (26 Oct) | 27 Oct placeholder | — | Farside: all IBIT (others 0.0, possibly late). ETH 26 Oct placeholder. Deribit expiry Fri 30 Oct, ≈$11–12bn, max pain ≈$79k (17 Oct read) |
Conventions: 1d is Tuesday 27 October; 1w is the change since Friday 23 October where a verified or corroborated prior exists, "≈" where it is derived from vendor levels. US cash closes are Reuters preliminary closes corroborated by MarketScreener's post-close quotes, pending AP. Treasury levels are the official par row for 26 October; Tuesday's vendor yields are provisional. FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is the New York session (TE, ~15:00 ET snapshot) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two bases are never blended. "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. Australia: one morning decides November
The Q3 CPI and the September monthly print land at 11:30 AEDT, four hours after this edition. The big four have converged: headline 1.2–1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y; trimmed mean 1.0% q/q and 3.6% y/y from CBA, NAB and ANZ, 0.9% and 3.5% from Westpac, all above the RBA's August forecast of 0.8% (Savings.com.au, 23 Oct; investingLive, 26 Oct; corroborated). Market Index has the September monthly at +0.7% m/m and 4.2% y/y headline, trimmed mean +0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y (single source); August was 4.0% headline and 3.6% trimmed (ABS, verified). Fuel is the swing factor: Westpac has it +8.3% in September, CBA and NAB 9.5–9.8%. Pricing for 3 November has moved from ≈22% to ≈51% on 21 October after Hauser's "materially worse" (RateProbability via Investing.com) and now sits at ≈60–66%: Trading Economics cites 66% for a 25bp move to 4.85% (no timestamp) and centralbank.watch ≈60% (27 Oct). The 2-year at 4.92% already embeds about 32bp over a 4.60% cash rate. ANZ and Westpac call a November hike; CBA and NAB hold, CBA with risks "firmly tilted to the upside".
2. France: the relief is in the price, and now the mark is too
The dedicated OAT–Bund series posted its 26 October row at 156.4bp (OAT 4.93%, Bund 3.37%; ideal-investisseur, page stamped 26/10/2026 17h35; verified), 15.4bp tighter than 23 October's 171.8bp after Moody's held Aa3 negative. Both legs of V025's pre-committed upgrade are now met (171.8 and 156.4, each ≥150bp), so the view moves to High as written in No. 033. Tuesday traded flat: TE's 4.922% OAT and 3.360% Bund give ≈156bp (derived, not the mark). Politically the week is quieter than reported: the National Assembly rejected the revenue part of the social-security bill on Friday 23 October by 115 to 1 with 22 abstentions, killing it at first reading; the solemn vote reported for 27 October was cancelled and the bill goes to the Senate in the government's text from 9 November, with a 50-day deadline of 26 November after which the government can legislate by ordinance, a route never used (NosParlementaires, Club des Juristes; verified). Part 1 of the state budget has a solemn vote on Tuesday 3 November. S&P reviews France on 27 November.
3. AI and credit: the rally spread to Asia's chips, and spreads followed for once
Monday's AI rebound carried into Asia: the KOSPI rose 3.09% (SK hynix +5.18%, Samsung +4.23%) and the Nikkei 1.73% (Advantest about +9%), while mainland China sold its own chip names (CSI Semiconductor −5.8%, STAR 50 −4.8%) into the Plenum. This time credit moved with equities: FRED's 26 October rows have IG at 90bp (−1), HY 330bp (−8) and CCC 1,345bp (−11) (verified), the first session in a week where all three tightened. The financing calendar is getting larger, not smaller: TradingKey details Meta's package as about 40m Class A shares at $625 (≈$25bn, forward-settled to November 2027), a $12.5bn 6.50% mandatory convertible preferred, and up to $60bn of non-voting Class C through an at-the-market programme from Q1 2027, about $97.5bn in all, which reconciles AP's "$35bn plus $60bn" and TheStreet's "$95bn". Nvidia's five-year CDS widened from about 87bp to 130bp between 12 and 23 October on S&P Global data (via TradersAgency, single source). FactSet (23 Oct) has Q3 S&P growth at 29.5% with 83% beating but an aggregate surprise of only +2.1% against a +7.5% five-year average.
4. Oil: diplomacy takes another $2 out, the structure stays steep
Brent December settled at $115.81 on Monday (−$0.91; Investing.com contracts table and FinanceFeeds, corroborated) and traded at $113.72 (−$2.09, −1.8%) at 13:44 ET Tuesday (Reuters via GV Wire), around $114 into the close on TE and oilprice.com; WTI December was $99.83 (−$1.93) at the same time, back below $100. January settled at $110.74 on Monday on the same contracts table, so the same-table December–January spread was $5.07, essentially unchanged from $5.02 on 23 October. The drivers were diplomatic: Iran's Security Council chief Rezaei met the Supreme Leader on conditions to end the war, Qatar's emir and President Pezeshkian were in Moscow, and the Tehran talks with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan continue (Reuters, Al Jazeera; corroborated). Al Jazeera reports Trump said strikes would not come before the 3 November midterms. The physical risk did not go away: the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and Riyadh, falling debris caused damage in Riyadh (SPA via Newsquawk), and the Houthis claimed a strike on Ras Tanura (Reuters; no damage confirmed). UBS raised its year-end Brent view to about $110 (Reuters); Goldman's base case from 1 October is $85.
5. Brazil: day two steadier, the challenge fading
The real recovered on Tuesday: TE had USD/BRL at ≈5.35 late in the New York session (−1.3%), and TE now records Monday's close at R$5.40 (+8.21%) after an intraday 5.60, rather than the ≈5.42 (+8.8%) carried yesterday (§13). The Treasury cancelled its 27 and 29 October auctions (QZ, Democrata; corroborated) and BCB Governor Galípolo said the central bank intervenes in FX only when it sees dysfunction (Newsquawk). An Al Jazeera headline says Bolsonaro's party accepts the result after Trump called the vote "rigged" (headline only). The Selic is 13.75% and Copom meets on 4 November (TE). A day-two Ibovespa close was not obtained.
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing by meeting
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp 2 Sep (second straight) | TODAY Wed 28 Oct 12:00 · presser 13:00 | +25bp to 3.00% ≈93% priced (Newsquawk preview). Westpac: split vote likely, 3.5% by Feb 2027, 4% peak. Conway (chief economist, mid-Oct): "completely open" | Hiking |
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · presser 05:30 · meeting 27–28 Oct ET · no SEP | 28 Oct: hold 89.7% / hike 10.3% (Investing, 09:25 ET pre-open). ≥1 hike by 9 Dec ≈81.6% (73.4% + 8.2%, derived). Kalshi 6.5¢ / Polymarket 5.5¢ for a hike (11:26 ET via DeFiRate); CME ≈10% (Yahoo) | Hawkish hold |
| BoC | 2.25% | Holds in 2026 | Thu 29 Oct 00:45 + MPR · presser 01:30 | +25bp "roughly three-in-four" in futures (Reuters, 23 Oct); ≈80% (Kitco/Reuters, MoneySense). Reuters poll 19 of 34 for a hike. No 26–27 Oct read obtained | Hike likely |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Hold expected; December hike ≈80% priced (Newsquawk week ahead). Barclays, Nomura (headline) see December | Hold, December live |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct ≈13:00–14:00 + Outlook Report (boj.or.jp: 29–30 Oct) | Hold expected; December or January to 1.50% (investingLive, StanChart). Takata, Tamura may dissent. Services PPI 3.7% y/y, highest since Jun 2024 | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30 | ≈60–66%: TE 66% for 4.85% (27 Oct, no stamp); centralbank.watch ≈60% (27 Oct). 21 Oct RateProbability ≈51%. CPI today 11:30 | Tightening bias; Nov live |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 16–17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | November +25bp ≈99%; December ≈47% (investingLive). Budget tonight 23:30 AEDT | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct | LPR Fri 20 Nov | 27 Oct fix 6.7171 vs 6.6731 estimate, 440 pips weak (Newsquawk, single source). Swap facility for non-banks facing redemptions (TE, single source) | Leaning against CNY |
| BoK · BI | 3.00% · 5.75% | BoK held Oct · BI held 21 Oct | BI 18 Nov · BoK 26 Nov | Korea Q3 GDP +1.0% q/q, 3.4% y/y against BoK's 0.3% / 2.6% forecast (verified): November is live | Hold, Nov live |
| BCB · Banxico | 13.75% · 6.50% | BCB −25bp 16 Sep | Copom Wed 4 Nov · Banxico Thu 5 Nov | No BCB FX intervention found; Galípolo: only on dysfunction. Banxico–Fed spread ≈250bp, a historic low (TE) | Watch BCB |
| Riksbank · Norges · RBI · SNB · CBR · CBRT | 1.75 · 4.25–4.50 · 5.50 · 0.00 · 14.00 · 36.00% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep; CBR held 23 Oct | Riksbank 4 Nov · Norges 5 Nov 20:00 · RBI 4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec · CBR 18 Dec | Carried; Norges rate conflicts by source (4.25% financecalendar, 4.50% TE) | Mixed |
Fed. The two-day meeting began on Tuesday; there is no SEP this time (December has one). The only Investing.com read available at filing is Tuesday's pre-open snapshot: October hike 10.3% (from 11.5% intraday Monday), at least one hike by 9 December ≈81.6% (from ≈78%), January 2027 modal at 4.00–4.25% (51.1%) with 34.6% on 4.25–4.50%, and March 2027 modal at 4.25–4.50% (45.5%). The settled refresh has not been quoted, per the timing protocol. The Bond Buyer counted up to three possible hawkish dissents (Hammack, Logan, Kashkari) and Newsquawk lists the same three; a Reuters poll had 94 of 100 economists for a hold. Context for the statement: Tuesday's Conference Board confidence jumped to 91.7 from 84.2 against ≈81 expected, with gasoline down to $4.27 from $4.48 a month ago (AP; verified), and September durable goods rose 1.8% (TE). Thursday ET then brings Q3 GDP (3.0–3.2% consensus) and September PCE (core 3.1% y/y expected) the morning after the decision.
RBNZ. A third consecutive 25bp hike to 3.00% is ≈93% priced (Newsquawk). Q3 CPI was 3.7% y/y, below the 3.8% expected and the RBNZ's 3.9%, but NZD below US57c is weaker than the bank assumed. Watch the projected path (September had 2.81% for December 2026 and 3.12% for September 2027) and whether "not pre-determined" survives; Westpac expects a split vote. The NZ election is on 7 November.
BoC, ECB, BoJ. The BoC has held all year and a hike would be the first since 2023 in this cycle; September CPI was 3.1% with median and trim core at 1.9% and 1.8%, so a hike is an inflation-expectations decision rather than a core-inflation one. The ECB is expected to hold at 2.50% with December live; TE says markets price ECB and Fed hikes "only for December". The BoJ's Outlook Report language on underlying inflation is the question after Himino's "approaching" 2%.
Regional briefs
United States
A firm tape and firmer data into the decision. The S&P rose 0.60% to 7,723.05 and the Nasdaq 1.18% (Reuters preliminary closes), 1.2% below the 6 October record of ≈7,815. The Dow was flat as Boeing fell 10.7% on a wider-than-expected loss and a cut to its delivery target. Conference Board confidence jumped to 91.7 from 84.2 (≈81 expected), with jobs "plentiful" at 26.7% from 24.3% (AP; verified); durable goods rose 1.8% with core capex orders +0.5% (TE). Thursday ET: Q3 GDP (3.0–3.2%; GDPNow 3.5%), September PCE (core 3.1% y/y) and claims; Friday the ECI. Midterms 3 November: a Democratic House ≈91% and Senate ≈65% on Kalshi and Polymarket (27 Oct 10:05 ET, via DeFiRate). Funding runs to 11 December. Earnings: Microsoft and Alphabet Wednesday after the close ET, Amazon Thursday, Apple Monday 2 November (SimianX tracker, single source); Meta reported on 21 October.
Euro area
Germany up, London down, France quiet. The DAX rose 0.71% to 25,590.77 on Infineon and Porsche (+4%) while Mercedes fell about 4% on a China-led profit warning (dpa-AFX via finanzen.ch; corroborated); the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.79% to 6,164.69. The Stoxx 600 was ≈flat at 640.08 (−0.09%, Investing history; intraday reports had it −0.43%, so the close is unverified). Euro-area M3 grew 3.5% y/y in September against 3.4% expected (TE, ForexFactory). Friday is the heavy day: Q3 GDP flashes (euro area 0.2% q/q against 0.6%; Germany 0.1%; France 0.1%), Spain and Italy CPI, German unemployment and the German flash CPI (0.1% m/m). Euro-area October flash HICP is Wednesday 4 November (prior 3.8%, core 2.5%).
United Kingdom
Budget at 23:30 AEDT tonight. Newsquawk expects headroom of about £15bn against £23.6bn in spring (EY £11.3bn), with the loss driven by yields (≈£6bn), the Bank Rate path (≈£4bn), weaker GDP and migration. Expected measures: the bank surcharge from 3% to 8% (≈£2bn), CGT carve-outs removed, possibly NICs on landlords and pensioners, the Energy Profits Levy kept at 38% to 2030; income tax and VAT rises are ruled out. On the gilt remit, consensus sees gilt sales about £3.4bn above £246.2bn, a long-end share below 7% from 9.1% and T-bills doubled to £10bn. The reaction risk is skewed negative if headroom comes in under £10–12bn (Newsquawk). The FTSE 100 fell 0.73% to 10,689 on HSBC (−6%, PBT $9.6bn against $9.7bn expected) and Reckitt (−6%, sales guidance cut). Gilts were steady (10-year 5.35%, 30-year 5.74%).
Japan
Chips lead a rebound into the BoJ. The Nikkei rose 1,078 points (+1.73%) to ≈63,268, ending a three-day fall, with Advantest about +9% and Tokyo Electron, Ibiden and SoftBank Group higher; TOPIX rose 0.61% to ≈3,997 (KuCoin/Nikkei recap and TE text, corroborated; the Nikkei's own archive had not posted 27 October, and vendor prints range 63,232–63,365). JGB 10-year 2.79%, 30-year 3.82% (TE). USD/JPY rose to ≈157.8. Friday morning: Tokyo October core CPI (2.6% consensus, 2.7% prior), jobless rate and industrial production, then the BoJ around 13:00–14:00 AEDT.
China & Hong Kong
Strong profits, weak tape. September industrial profits rose 14.4% y/y against 4.2% in August and Bloomberg Economics' 12%; January–September +15.5% (HeyGoTrade, TE; corroborated). The market ignored it: Shanghai fell 1.33% to 3,648.3, a 14-month low, the CSI 300 1.32% to 4,049.54, ChiNext 3.41% and the STAR 50 4.8%, led by the chip names (CSI Semiconductor −5.8%; Cambricon, Hygon, NAURA about −5.5%) (TE, RTHK; corroborated, arithmetic ties). The Hang Seng fell 0.7% to ≈23,041 and HS Tech 1.5% to ≈3,800 (RTHK, single source). CITIC Securities' Q3 profit fell 20.2%. The Fifth Plenum runs to Thursday with a communiqué due; 247WallSt attributes part of the selling to an absence of stimulus signals (single source, inference). The PBoC fixed 440 pips weak of the estimate on Tuesday (6.7171 against 6.6731). Trump has accepted Xi's invitation to APEC in Shenzhen on 18–19 November (SCMP, CNBC via Times Brasil). Official PMIs are on Saturday.
Emerging markets and Israel
Korea surprises, India stalls, Israel counts. Korea's Q3 GDP grew 1.0% q/q and 3.4% y/y against the BoK's August forecasts of 0.3% and 2.6%, with exports +2.3% and facility investment +4.1% but private consumption −0.2%; real GDI rose 18.8% y/y, the most since 1977 (Seoul Economic Daily; verified). The KOSPI rose 3.09% to 5,638.34 with foreigners buying ₩835.9bn; SK hynix reports today. Taiwan's TAIEX rose 0.12% to 46,096.23 on reopening (Focus Taiwan, verified). The Nifty was flat at 22,749.75 (−0.02%) with small caps +2.7%; foreign investors have sold a record $32.56bn year to date. Israel voted on Tuesday with turnout reported as the highest in 50 years; polls closed at 07:00 AEDT. At filing the only post-poll item obtained was a Times of Israel liveblog headline: exit polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead and Likud the largest party, with neither side holding a clear path to a majority (headline only; seat projections not obtained, and projections are not results). The official result is due on 4 November; the final four-poll average had the opposition bloc on 54 seats and Netanyahu's on 49.5, with 61 needed (JPost).
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA into CPI
The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year. Pricing for 3 November is ≈60–66% (TE 66% for 25bp to 4.85%, which TE describes as the expected peak; centralbank.watch ≈60%, 27 Oct). The path since mid-October: ≈22% on 20 October, ≈51% on 21 October after Deputy Governor Hauser said the outlook was "materially worse" than in August and Goldman moved to a November hike (RateProbability via Investing.com), then Hunter's "unfortunately, not quite yet" on 25 October. The RBA's speeches page lists nothing new for 27–28 October. Senate Estimates with the Governor was listed for 11:15 today in No. 036's calendar; this run could not re-confirm it from a primary, so treat the time as unverified. ANZ's Angala, after Tuesday's ANZ-Roy Morgan survey, forecasts trimmed mean +1.0% q/q and a hike to 4.85%.
Markets: materials +2.8%, financials sold
Equities. The ASX 200 rose 40.2 points (+0.46%) to 8,850.1, closing 0.9% above its low after an early dip to 8,798 (Market Index evening wrap, in-body dateline 27 Oct; ABC; ShareTrader; verified). All Ords 8,968.8 (+0.47%), Small Ords +1.11%. Materials +2.78% (BHP +4.3%, South32 +2.6%; uranium: Boss and Paladin +6.7%), real estate +0.76% on easier bond yields, energy +0.63%; financials −0.59% (Bank of Queensland −2.8%, QBE −0.6%), communication services −0.80%, discretionary −0.56%. ASX 300 breadth 161 up, 126 down. Movers: Star Entertainment +13.0% (quarterly EBITDA turned positive at $12m), Southern Cross Electrical +13.6%, FireFly Metals +9.3%; Amotiv −10.5% (guidance withdrawn), Cettire −6.5%, Perseus −3.0%. Currency. RBA 4pm AUD/USD 0.7021 (−10 pips), AUD/NZD 1.2335 (unchanged), both verified. Rates. 2-year 4.92% (+1bp), 3-year 4.88% (+2bp), 10-year 5.16% (−1bp, a seven-week low per TE). 3s10s 28bp.
China and the commodity link
Iron ore fell 1.1% to about US$89.70/t in the Asian session, a two-year low (Market Index; ABC had $90.60 at 16:35), even as China's September industrial profits beat at +14.4% y/y. The miners' rally was about metals other than ore: COMEX copper +1.6–1.7% to ≈$6.61/lb, gold back above $4,050 in New York, uranium names up 6–7%, and a Chevron gas supply deal that Market Index ties to BHP's move. On our reading the index is being carried by copper, gold and energy transition metals while the iron-ore channel to China weakens; V006 is a bet that the inflation channel dominates both.
New Zealand
The NZX 50 fell 53.66 points (−0.4%) to 13,680.27, its third straight fall, with retirement-village operators (Summerset −4.7%, Ryman −3.3%) sold before the decision and Sanford +12% after Ngāi Tahu agreed to sell its 10% stake at a 22% premium (The Bottom Line; verified). NZD/USD was 0.5705 at the Auckland close. The RBNZ decides at 12:00 AEDT with a 25bp hike to 3.00% ≈93% priced; Governor Breman's press conference follows at 13:00. Q3 CPI was 3.7% y/y; unemployment is 5.6% with Q3 jobs on 4 November; the election is 7 November.
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · ≈60–66% priced |
| CPI Q3 · Sep monthly | — | Q3 1.2–1.3% q/q, 3.9% y/y; TM 0.9–1.0% q/q, 3.5–3.6% y/y (RBA fcst 0.8%). Sep +0.7% m/m, 4.2% y/y; TM 3.6% | TODAY 11:30 |
| Monthly CPI (Aug) | 4.0% y/y | Jul 3.5%; TM 3.6% y/y | Verified (ABS) |
| ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence | 67.9 | 67.7; fourth week below 70; year-ago 85.8 | Weekly (Tue) |
| Westpac-MI leading index (Sep) | −0.03% (6m ann.) | Unchanged; dwelling approvals −0.34pp | November |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7% | Post-COVID high | Mid-November |
| Import prices Q3 · PPI Q3 · private credit (Sep) | — | Cons 1.3% q/q · 1.0% q/q · 0.5% m/m | Thu 29 Oct 11:30 · Fri 30 Oct 11:30 |
| NZ OCR | 2.75% | +25bp to 3.00% ≈93% priced | TODAY 12:00 |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.92 · 4.88 · 5.16% | +1 · +2 · −1bp on Tuesday | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.7021 · 1.2335 | 0.7031 · 1.2335 (26 Oct) | Daily 16:00 |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V025 (OAT–Bund widener) is upgraded to High. The condition written in No. 033 was two dedicated rows at or above 150bp including the first print after Moody's; the 23 October row was 171.8bp and the 26 October row, posted after No. 036 filed, is 156.4bp. The mirror written with it stands: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp. V017: FRED 26 October tightened across the stack (IG 90, HY 330, CCC 1,345); the mirror is 25bp away and needs two prints. V006: the ASX rose to 8,850.1, cutting the cushion to its 8,900 close line to 49.9 points (0 of 2). V023: the RBA table printed 1.2335 for a second day. V024: January's 26 October settle was $110.74 on the same contracts table that carried the 23 October settles, so the band is ≈$25–28 away. V031: the Nasdaq-100 rose ≈1.29% to ≈29,651 (MarketScreener quote, single source), ≈1.6% against the 29,187.55 entry and ≈4.3% below the 30,932 close line.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | High ▲ | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 156.4bp (26 Oct) after 171.8bp (23 Oct): upgrade condition met on both rows. ≈+62bp from a ≈94bp entry. Social-security bill dead at first reading (115–1); Senate from 9 Nov; ordinance route after 26 Nov; PLF part 1 vote 3 Nov; S&P 27 Nov | MIRROR, WRITTEN 22 OCT: back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp. CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED 26 Oct: IG 90bp (−1), HY 330bp (−8), CCC 1,345bp (−11). First all-round tightening in a week. Meta's ≈$97.5bn package and Nvidia CDS ≈130bp (single source) keep the AI-funding supply story live into the mega-cap results | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (295bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (25bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +1.73% in favour: 8,850.1 against 9,005.9. Tuesday's gain was materials (+2.78%) against financials (−0.59%); iron ore at a two-year low. Q3 CPI today decides the RBA path | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (49.9 points, +0.56%, away; 0 of 2) |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | ≈29,651 on 27 Oct (MarketScreener 16:16 ET quote, single source): ≈−1.6% against since entry (29,187.55). Two-day AI rebound; MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET (implied ±5.2–6.5% / ±6.2%), AMZN Thu ET | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (≈4.3% above the mark) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2335 on the RBA 4pm table, 27 Oct (verified), unchanged on the day, +0.16% against ≈1.2315. NY-basis TE cross ≈1.2362. RBNZ ≈93% priced, RBA ≈60–66%: the surprise sits with Australia | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (85 pips away). AU CPI 11:30 and RBNZ 12:00 today |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | Settles 26 Oct (same contracts table): December $115.81, January $110.74; spread $5.07. Tuesday ≈$114 / ≈$109.6 late (not settles). Diplomacy in Tehran and Moscow; strikes reported not before 3 Nov | UNCHANGED: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (≈$25–28 below); December settles in $86.53–89.53 count until Friday's expiry. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Ledger. Six views open; 25 closed: 3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 18 decided calls have been right. One conviction change today (V025 to High), made on a condition written before the event that decided it.
Portfolio-level read. The book enters the densest 72 hours of the quarter with two High-conviction views, both expressions of funding stress (V017 in US credit, V025 in French sovereign risk), and three Low-conviction tactical views that resolve on today's Australian print or Thursday's mega-cap results. Today's sequence is CPI (11:30), the RBNZ (12:00), the UK Budget (23:30), the BoC (00:45 Thu) and the FOMC (05:00 Thu). We would not add gross ahead of it; the upgrade to V025 is a conviction call on an existing position, not a new risk allocation.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 20 October (the next report, as of 27 October, publishes Friday US time). Nets are this desk's arithmetic from the raw file. Sentiment pages are as of the 26 October close unless dated.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 20 October | |||
| UST 2y · 5y · 10y | −1,285,548 · −2,117,544 · −2,107,224 | +81,860 · −13,153 · +98,713 | Covering at the front end and in 10s |
| Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond | −318,477 · −162,757 · −804,808 | +17,381 · −8,737 · −89,079 | Shorts added only at the very long end (ultra-bond shorts +95.3k) |
| Six-contract Treasury total | −6,796,358 | +86,985 | Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted; consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure |
| E-mini S&P · Nasdaq-100 | −371,245 · −7,688 | +37,481 · +14,203 | Shorts trimmed into the rebound |
| AUD · NZD · JPY · EUR · GBP · CAD | +52,497 · −19,280 · −22,890 · −68,840 · +24,104 · −91,113 | +1,906 · −7,661 · +10,783 · −839 · +13,791 · −3,001 | Leveraged funds net long AUD; legacy non-commercial net short (−127,292): opposite signs, both real. StoneX reports record asset-manager AUD shorts (no figures; TFF asset-manager columns not pulled) |
| Legacy non-commercial: WTI · gold · copper | +89,325 · +199,865 · +57,397 | −11,018 · −8,014 · −11.1k | Speculators trimmed crude at ≈$100; gold long still ≈50% of open interest |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA Flow Show (EPFR, week to 21 Oct) | Equities +$55.6bn · EM +$33.5bn · China +$17bn · tech +$18.8bn | Treasuries +$5.4bn (17th week) · HY −$0.5bn | Money markets +$28.8bn, gold +$2.6bn. Bull & Bear 7.2 or 7.4 (sources conflict); Hartnett "tactically risk-off" |
| ICI money funds (week to 21 Oct) | $7,944.6bn | +$21.49bn | Institutional +$24.01bn, retail −$2.52bn (verified) |
| ICI long-term funds (week to 14 Oct) | −$524.9bn | Domestic equity −$509.1bn | ICI attributes it to conversions into collective investment trusts: a structural artefact, not redemptions |
| US spot BTC ETFs (Farside) | +$110.3m (26 Oct) | Week to 23 Oct ≈+$304.8m | 26 Oct all IBIT (others may be late); 27 Oct placeholder, not zero. October to date ≈−$202m (TFTC) |
| Surveys, volatility and breadth | |||
| AAII (week to 21 Oct) | Bulls 36.9% · bears 45.8% | Spread −8.9; bears up three weeks | Next survey Thursday |
| Fear & Greed replica (26 Oct) | 13 — extreme fear | 19 a week ago, 49 a month ago | Seven sessions in extreme fear with the S&P about 2% below its record |
| VIX · VIX3M · SKEW (26 Oct) | 18.39 · 19.94 · 151.0 | Ratio 0.922, contango day 140 | Cheap front vol, expensive tails: SKEW +0.9σ on the year. Nov VIX future 19.16 |
| Put/call (23 Oct) | Total 0.93 · equity 0.67 · index 1.10 | 9-day total 0.89, 71st pct | Equity P/C at the top of its 2025–26 range |
| % S&P above 200-day · Hindenburg | 58.6% (23 Oct) · inactive | Long-run mean 65% | 2 of 4 conditions (new highs 2.77%, lows 6.49%); McClellan +13.1; SPY below its 50-day |
| BofA FMS (October; survey 2–8 Oct) | Cash 3.9% · net 44% OW equities | Crowded: long semis 45%, short USTs 27% | Tail risks: disorderly yields 31%, AI bubble 23%, second inflation wave 20%. Tech OW 37%, highest since Aug 2020 (secondary summary) |
| FactSet (23 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +29.5% | 83% beat EPS; surprise +2.1% vs +7.5% 5-yr avg | CY26 +33.1%, CY27 +16.0%; bottom-up target 9,314 |
| Sell-side (dated 22–26 Oct) | MS Wilson: tactical low 7,100–7,200, year-end 8,000 (26 Oct) | GS Snider: 8,000 YE, 8,700 end-2027 (reported 22 Oct) | BofA technicals: H&S neckline ≈7,616, target 7,395 (carried, not re-verified) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 28 October — Australia's decisive morning, the RBNZ, then the UK Budget | ||||||
| Wed | morning | Tue | Israel exit polls · official par curve 27 Oct (≈09:00) · settled Fed Rate Monitor · SK hynix results | M | ||
| Wed | 11:15 | Tue 20:15 | RBA Senate Estimates (per No. 036; not re-confirmed this run) | M | ||
| Wed | 11:30 | Tue 20:30 | AU CPI: Q3 q/q · y/y · trimmed mean q/q · Sep monthly y/y · TM y/y | 1.2–1.3% · 3.9% · 0.9–1.0% · 4.2% · 3.6% | — · — · 0.8% (RBA fcst) · 4.0% · 3.6% | H |
| Wed | 12:00 · 13:00 | Tue 21:00 | RBNZ OCR decision · Breman press conference | 3.00% (≈93%) | 2.75% | H |
| Wed | ≈12:15 | Tue 21:15 | PBoC USD/CNY fix | 6.7171 | L | |
| Wed | 18:00 | 03:00 | German GfK consumer climate (Nov) | −30.1 | −30.6 | M |
| Wed | 23:30 | 08:30 | UK Budget (Healey) + OBR · US advance goods trade | Headroom ≈£15bn · −$130.4bn | £23.6bn · −$132.1bn | H |
| Thursday 29 October — BoC, the Fed, Microsoft and Alphabet, then GDP and PCE | ||||||
| Thu | 00:45 · 01:30 | Wed 09:45 | Bank of Canada + MPR · press conference | 2.50% (≈75–80%) | 2.25% | H |
| Thu | 01:30 | Wed 10:30 | EIA crude inventories | −0.3m | −3.1m | M |
| Thu | 05:00 · 05:30 | Wed 14:00 · 14:30 | FOMC statement · Warsh press conference (no SEP) | Hold (≈90–94%) | 3.75–4.00% | H |
| Thu | ≈07:05 | Wed 16:05 | Microsoft · Alphabet results | Implied ±5.2–6.5% · ±6.1–6.2% | H | |
| Thu | 11:00 · 11:30 | Wed 20:00 · 20:30 | NZ ANZ business confidence · AU import prices Q3 | — · 1.3% q/q | 51.9 · 5.7% | L |
| Thu | day | — | Samsung results · China Plenum closes (communiqué) · US 7-year auction ($44bn; date per RTT, single source) | M | ||
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US Q3 GDP (advance) · Sep PCE headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · y/y · claims | 3.0–3.2% · 0.5% · 3.6% · 0.3% · 3.1% · 198k | 2.2% · 0.3% · 3.4% · 0.2% · 3.0% · 194k | H |
| Friday 30 October — ECB, BoJ, Amazon, Brent December expiry, euro-area GDP | ||||||
| Fri | 00:15 · 00:45 | Thu 09:15 · 09:45 | ECB decision · Lagarde press conference | Hold | DFR 2.50% | H |
| Fri | ≈07:00 | Thu 16:00 | Amazon results (Intel date not confirmed) | Implied ≈±6.7–7.7% | H | |
| Fri | 10:30 · 10:50 · 11:30 | Thu 19:30 · 19:50 · 20:30 | Tokyo core CPI · Japan jobless · Japan IP · AU Q3 PPI · Sep private credit | 2.6% · 2.5% · 1.2% · 1.0% · 0.5% | 2.7% · — · −2.4% · 1.3% · 0.6% | M |
| Fri | ≈13:00–14:00 · ≈17:30 | Thu | BoJ decision + Outlook Report (time not fixed) · Ueda press conference | Hold | 1.25% | H |
| Fri | 17:30 – 21:00 | 02:30 – 06:00 | France GDP, CPI · Spain CPI, GDP · German unemployment, GDP · Italy GDP, CPI · euro-area Q3 GDP flash · EZ unemployment · Brent December expiry (19:00 Deribit BTC expiry) | FR 0.1% · DE 0.1% · EZ 0.2% q/q | FR 0.0% · DE 0.3% · EZ 0.6% | H |
| Fri | evening · 23:30 | Fri · 08:30 | German flash CPI (Oct) · US ECI (Q3) · Canada GDP · Daly, Musalem speak (afternoon ET) | 0.1% m/m · 0.8% · 0.2% | 0.6% · 0.9% · 0.0% | H |
| Sat 31 | 00:45 · 12:30 | Fri 09:45 · 21:30 | Chicago PMI · China official PMIs (Oct) mfg · non-mfg | 55.8 · 49.9 · 50.0 | 58.8 · 50.1 · 50.2 | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 1–7 Nov | — | — | OPEC+ Sun 1 Nov · US DST ends Sun 1 · China RatingDog PMI, Apple (Mon 2 ET) · US ISM mfg 02:00 Tue 3 · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 · French PLF vote Tue 3 · Copom, Riksbank, euro-area flash HICP (21:00) Wed 4 · Israel official result Wed 4 · NZ Q3 jobs Wed 4 08:45 · Norges 20:00, BoE 23:00 Thu 5 · Banxico, Canada budget Thu 5 · US payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30 · NZ election Sat 7 | H | ||
| 8–30 Nov | — | — | French Senate takes up the social-security bill Mon 9 · US October CPI (date not re-confirmed) · Veterans Day (US bond market closed Wed 11) · BI 18 Nov · APEC Shenzhen, Trump–Xi, 18–19 Nov · Nvidia ≈18 Nov (expected) · PBoC LPR 20 Nov · PLFSS ordinance deadline 26 Nov · BoK 26 Nov · S&P on France 27 Nov · government funding to 11 Dec | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from ForexFactory, Trading Economics, Newsquawk, Market Index and the big four banks (23–27 Oct); ForexFactory times are converted from its page time zone (derived). Where calendars disagree the range is shown. Changes since Tuesday's edition: the French social-security vote listed for 27 Oct did not take place (the bill was rejected on 23 Oct); the FOMC meeting is 27–28 Oct ET with no SEP; APEC Shenzhen is 18–19 Nov with Trump attending; China PMI consensus is now 49.9 (from 50.1).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hot Australian core forces November | Q3 CPI today 11:30; RBA 3 Nov | RBA Nov ≈60–66% (TE, centralbank.watch) | ACGB 3y through 5%; AUD crosses higher; rate-sensitives and REITs lower | V006; V023 |
| 2 | Hawkish Fed signal into a short-duration crowd | FOMC Thu 05:00 AEDT; GDP/PCE Thu 23:30 | Fed Dec ≥1 hike ≈81.6% (Investing, pre-open); BoC ≈75–80% | Front end higher; long end squeezes or breaks against 6.8m contracts of LF shorts | 2-year options |
| 3 | AI-capex funding meets mega-cap results | MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET, AMZN Thu ET, AAPL 2 Nov; Meta's ≈$97.5bn package | Implied ±5.2–6.5 / ±6.2 / ±6.7–7.7% (single sources) | Semis are the FMS's most crowded long (45%); Nasdaq-100 retraces | V031 |
| 4 | US strike on Iran after the midterms, or a hit on Saudi exports | Trump: not before 3 Nov (Al Jazeera); CNN 96-hour readiness; Houthi Ras Tanura claim | Kalshi WTI ≥$115 by 31 Dec ≈37%; ≥$120 ≈26% (27 Oct 10:02 ET, via DeFiRate) | Brent December through $120; diesel; EM importers | V024's residual call |
| 5 | Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY | Mega-cap results; AI-financing supply; private-credit marks | HY back through 350bp; CCC through 1,400bp | V017 (High) | |
| 6 | UK Budget misses on headroom | Tonight 23:30 AEDT; BoE 5 Nov | BoE Nov hike ≈99% (investingLive) | Gilt 30y through 5.9%; GBP lower; long-end contagion | Gilt 10s30s steepener |
| 7 | France: relief fades into the ordinance route | PLF vote 3 Nov; Senate 9 Nov; 26 Nov deadline; S&P 27 Nov | OAT–Bund back through 175bp; French banks; BTP contagion | V025 (High) | |
| 8 | Midterm sweep and policy shock | 3 Nov | Dem House ≈91%, Senate ≈65% (Kalshi/Polymarket via DeFiRate, 27 Oct 10:05 ET) | Tariff, sanctions and fiscal reversal risk; post-election Gulf action | Q4 collars |
| 9 | BoJ language shift and a yen squeeze | Fri 30 Oct Outlook Report; Tokyo CPI | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto | Short-dated USD/JPY puts | |
| 10 | China disappoints at the Plenum | Communiqué Thu–Fri; PMIs Sat | Iron ore below $88; AUD/CNH; A-share chips | Short iron-ore exposure via V006 | |
| 11 | Israel deadlock into a Gulf escalation | Result 4 Nov; coalition talks | Caretaker government; reported challenge to the result | — |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723.05 | 7,676.77 (26 Oct) · 7,616 (BofA neckline) · 7,605 (100-day) | 7,702 (50-day) · 7,757 (21 Oct) · 7,815 (6 Oct record) | MS Wilson's tactical low 7,100–7,200; BofA H&S target 7,395 if the neckline breaks (carried) |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈29,651 | 29,188 (V031 entry) · 28,826 (23 Oct low) | 29,822 · 30,932 (V031 closes) | QQQ is the settled check |
| UST 10y · 2y | 5.00% · 4.68% (par 26 Oct) | 4.96% (22 Oct par) | 5.09% (16 Oct par) · 5-yr auction 4.845% | Par 27 Oct posts ≈09:00 AEDT |
| OAT–Bund | 156.4bp (26 Oct) | 140 (mirror to Med, two prints) · 80 (V025 closes) | 171.8 (23 Oct) · 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | 4.88 · 5.16% | 4.80 · 5.10 | 4.95 · 5.26 | Supports and resistances are our reading |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | ≈102.3 · ≈1.114 · ≈157.8 | 101.50 · 1.1100 · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | EUR near its lowest since April 2025 (TE) |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7021 · 1.2335 (RBA) | 0.6980 (200-day EMA, StoneX) · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.7050 (200-day SMA) · 1.2357 (21 Oct RBA) | 1-week options imply ≈135 pips (StoneX, 25 Oct) |
| Brent (Jan) | $110.74 (26 Oct settle) · ≈$109.6 late Tue | $109.52 (27 Oct low) · $81.51–84.51 (V024) | $111.90 (27 Oct high) · $112.20 | December $115.81 settle; expires Fri 30 Oct |
| Gold · Silver | $4,059.60 · ≈$54.3 | $3,988.50 (27 Oct low) · $3,950 | $4,066.70 (27 Oct high) · $4,145 (22 Oct high) | Kitco 15:11 ET; $3,950 is our reading |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,850.1 | 8,798 (27 Oct low) · 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 8,900 (V006 closes, two closes) · 8,935–8,940 (supply) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch (carried) |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 90 / 330 / 1,345bp (26 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) | HY 340 · CCC 1,356 (23 Oct, high in window) | FRED |
| Bitcoin | ≈$80,680 | $79,000 (Deribit max pain, 17 Oct read) · $76,000 | $81,562 · $84,262 | No view open; ≈$11–12bn options expire Fri 30 Oct |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Wednesday edition, filed before Australia's Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) and the RBNZ (12:00), which this edition previews but cannot report. Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:10 AEDT; Asia, Australia and Europe were drafted first and the US-close block was fetched last, per the timing protocol. The AP tabulation for Tuesday 27 October was not indexed or readable at filing (two searches; the La Nación syndication returned a client error), so US cash closes are Reuters' preliminary closes (16:02 ET, via MarketScreener), each tied exactly to AP's now-verified Monday closes and matched within 10 points by MarketScreener's 16:16 ET quotes: corroborated, not verified. Settled ETF pages were serving 11:25 ET caches and could not be used as a check. The Russell 2000 close was not obtained. The Fed figure is Investing.com's 09:25 ET pre-open read, labelled as such. The RBA 4pm table, the ASX close, FRED to 26 October, the official par curve to 26 October, the OAT–Bund dedicated series to 26 October, the Kitco gold print, Korea's GDP and the CFTC raw file were read from their primaries. Every figure was retrieved on 27–28 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 036
(1) Russell 2000, Monday 26 October — material. AP's tabulation, now readable, has 2,786.42 (+10.53, +0.4%), not 2,785.52 (+9.62, +0.35%) as No. 036 printed from the Yahoo close; Yahoo's own prior-close arithmetic (2,786.43) agrees with AP. AP also verifies No. 036's S&P 500 (7,676.77), Dow (52,361.58) and Nasdaq (26,169.38), which were labelled corroborated.
(2) Official par curve, 26 October: 2-year 4.68%, 5-year 4.84%, 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.31% (verified), against No. 036's vendor 4.72 · 4.83 · 4.99 · 5.30%. The 2-year fell 1bp on par rather than rising 2.6bp on the vendor screen; par 2s10s 32bp and 5s30s 47bp. No view was marked on the vendor levels, per the 6 October convention.
(3) Brent January, 26 October: settle $110.74 on the same Investing.com contracts table and historical page that carried the 23 October settles, not the ≈$111.07 vendor figure; the same-table December–January spread is $5.07, not ≈$4.72. December's 26 October settle is $115.81 (corroborated), which No. 036 carried as ≈$115.8. WTI December settled $101.76 (Investing.com, FinanceFeeds), not $101.55 (Yahoo).
(4) European Monday closes: Stoxx 600 640.66 (+0.77%), not 638.16 (+0.38%); DAX 25,410.84 (+0.91%), not ≈25,479 (+1.18%) — both from Investing.com history, the DAX corroborated by ideas-daily. FTSE MIB and IBEX priors implied by Tuesday's TE quotes (≈49,187 and ≈19,033) do not reconcile with No. 036's 49,030.67 and 19,065; unresolved.
(5) DAX, Friday 23 October — resolved: 25,181.65, corroborated (Investing history; Monday's +0.91% only reconciles from it). The 25,152.31 figure survives only in a quote page's "previous close" field.
(6) USD/BRL, Monday 26 October: TE now records the close at R$5.40 (+8.21%), against ≈5.42 (+8.8%) carried; QZ and Democrata report 5.6056 against 4.9777, which looks like an intraday high. Range kept, unverified.
(7) France: there was no social-security vote on 27 October; the bill was rejected on 23 October and the planned solemn vote cancelled (verified). No. 036 carried the 27 October date as "reported, unconfirmed".
(8) Sensex: Tuesday's 73,598.67 (−8.08) implies a Monday close of 73,606.75, not No. 036's 73,496.18 (TE, CFD-based). Unresolved; BSE not checked.
(9) Discharged from Tuesday's list: the 26 October OAT–Bund dedicated row (156.4bp, V025 upgraded); AP and par for 26 October; Brent December and January 26 October settles; FRED 26 October; RBA 4pm 27 October; ASX 200 27 October; DAX Friday close.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Nikkei 27 October: 63,232–63,365 across vendors; 63,268 used because it ties to the official 26 October close (62,189.65) plus the reported +1,078. Brent on Tuesday: ABC's $114.73 at 16:35 AEDT and Market Index's "US$110" are December and January respectively; contract named in every row. Stoxx 600 27 October: Investing history 640.08 (−0.09%) against intraday reports of −0.43%; history used, labelled unverified. FX: TE's single-currency pages and its US-page table disagreed by 10–15 pips on EUR, GBP and JPY; single-currency levels used, changes recomputed against No. 036's priors. Meta's raise: resolved by TradingKey's term detail (≈$97.5bn in three parts). Microsoft implied move: ±5.2% (earnings-watcher, 26 Oct) to ±6.5% (Trader Central, 22 Oct); range shown. Bull & Bear: 7.2 and 7.4 in the same relay; both shown. Richmond Fed: TE's −2 "unchanged" and "lowest since February" are inconsistent; single source. Conference Board sub-indices: ActionForex's present-situation/expectations split used; AP's extraction appeared transposed.
Single-source and unverified items
Anthropic S-1 revenue ($16.29bn H1, CoinCentral) · Nvidia CDS path (S&P Global via TradersAgency) · SpaceX/Apollo leaseback · Houthi Ras Tanura claim and the "fire at Ras Tanura" headline · OPEC+ "quotas unchanged" (headline) · Bolsonaro party "accepts" (headline) · Trump "not before the midterms" (Al Jazeera analysis) · TE's 66% RBA figure (no timestamp) · September monthly CPI consensus (Market Index) · Senate Estimates time · HS Tech close (RTHK) · 27 October PBoC fix and estimate (Newsquawk) · PBoC non-bank swap facility (TE) · BofA Flow Show and FMS figures (secondary relays) · options-implied earnings moves · US 7-year auction date and size (RTT) · earnings dates (SimianX tracker) · Kalshi/Polymarket figures (DeFiRate aggregator).
Not obtained
AP tabulation 27 Oct · Russell 2000 close 27 Oct · settled SPY/QQQ/IWM/DIA 27 Oct · official par curve 27 Oct · settled Fed Rate Monitor · Israel exit-poll seat projections · OAT–Bund 27 October dedicated row (posts ≈03:35 AEDT Thu) · FRED 27 October · Brent official ICE settles 27 October · Westmetall copper 26 October · SPI overnight · ASX IB futures · day-two Ibovespa close · BoC pricing after 23 October · RBNZ OIS print · ECB speakers (Econostream unreachable) · CoinShares weekly · Farside ETH 26–27 October · TFF asset-manager AUD columns · API inventories · IG issuance totals · Spain Q3 unemployment actual.
Thursday's first verification targets
(1) Q3 CPI and the RBNZ decision (after this edition — V006, V023). (2) RBA 4pm 28 October (V023). (3) ASX 200 28 October close (V006, 49.9 points from its line). (4) OAT–Bund 27 October dedicated row (V025, now High; mirror below 140bp). (5) Official par 27 October and the settled Fed read. (6) FRED 27 October (V017, HY 25bp from the mirror). (7) Brent December and January official settles 27–28 October (V024; December expires Friday). (8) AP tabulation for 27 October, including the Russell 2000. (9) Israel seat projections and the count.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- Reuters via MarketScreener — Tuesday close · Reuters via Kitco — Tuesday morning · Times of Israel — election liveblog · AP via La Nación — 26 Oct tabulation · Yahoo Finance — Tuesday live · TheStreet — 27 Oct · Motley Fool — midday · CoinCentral — Anthropic S-1 · SPY · QQQ · IWM · DIA
- US Treasury — par yield curve · TE — US yields · Newsquawk — 5-year auction · RTT — 5-year auction · TE — durable goods · AP via WSLS — confidence · ActionForex — confidence · TE — Richmond Fed · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar · DeFiRate — Fed odds · DeFiRate — midterms · SimianX — earnings dates · Trader Central — implied moves
- CFTC — TFF · CFTC — NYMEX · CFTC — COMEX · BofA Flow Show relay · BofA FMS summary · ICI MMF · ICI flows · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call · Hindenburg · breadth · FactSet — 23 Oct · investingLive — Morgan Stanley · Motley Fool — Goldman target · StoneX — AUD
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — speeches · centralbank.watch — RBA · Investing.com via Yahoo — RBA bets · TE — DXY · EUR · JPY · GBP · AUD · NZD · BRL · MXN · BoJ — schedule · StanChart on BoJ via Mitrade · Reuters via Kitco — BoC · Newsquawk — RBNZ preview · Westpac — RBNZ preview · TE — ECB · TE — Selic · investingLive — Budget and BoE
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · France-Epargne — Moody's · NosParlementaires — PLFSS · Club des Juristes — PLFSS · TE — OAT · Bund · BTP · Gilt · JGB
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- Market Index — evening wrap, 27 Oct · ABC — markets live, 27 Oct · ShareTrader — 27 Oct · TE — ACGB · ABS — CPI · Savings.com.au — CPI previews · investingLive — CPI preview · Roy Morgan — 27 Oct · Westpac — leading index · The Bottom Line — NZX
- Nikkei — archive · KuCoin — Nikkei recap · RTHK — HK and China close · TE — China · HeyGoTrade — industrial profits · MoneyToday — KOSPI · Seoul Economic Daily — Korea GDP · Focus Taiwan — TAIEX · HDFC Sky — India close
Europe and geopolitics
- dpa-AFX via finanzen.ch — DAX close · Investing — Stoxx 600 history · Investing — DAX history · ideas-daily · TE — FTSE · TE — M3 · Newsquawk — Budget preview · Newsquawk — week in focus · ForexFactory
- Al Jazeera — Iran's calculations · Al Jazeera — Israel results timing · JPost — final polls · Gulf News — Saudi intercepts · Newsquawk — headlines · Newsquawk — EU open · QZ — Brazil · Democrata — Brazil · SCMP — APEC
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Investing — Brent contracts · Investing — Brent history · FinanceFeeds — Brent · Reuters via GV Wire — oil · TE — Brent · OilPrice · Investing — WTI history · TE — gas · Kitco — gold · Westmetall · TE — iron ore · DeFiRate — oil odds
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · TradingKey — Meta raise · TradersAgency — AI credit · CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · TFTC — ETF flows · CryptoTicker — expiry