The bottom line
- US equities recovered the whole of last week's loss in one session, led by the AI trade, and the 10-year closed below 5% on vendor screens. The S&P 500 rose 53.09 points (+0.70%) to 7,676.77, the Dow 146.42 (+0.28%) to 52,361.58, the Nasdaq 214.04 (+0.82%) to 26,169.38 and the Russell 9.62 (+0.35%) to 2,785.52 (Yahoo Finance close; each ties exactly to Friday's AP close; settled SPY +0.69%, QQQ +1.09%, IWM +0.44%; corroborated, AP not yet readable). The prompt was Anthropic's public S-1 filing for a Nasdaq listing, which reports more than $16bn of first-half revenue (media reports), plus a Barclays upgrade that lifted Tesla about 6%; the SOX rose more than 3% intraday. The VIX fell 5.1% to 18.46. The S&P is back above BofA technical strategist Ciana's ≈7,616 head-and-shoulders neckline and its ≈7,605 100-day average, which removes the nearest technical trigger. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) is now ≈0.3% against at ≈29,275 (derived).
- Brazil re-elected Lula against the polls, and Brazilian assets had a one-day crash. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21% against Flávio Bolsonaro, who has not conceded and says he will seek annulment; the electoral court has confirmed the result (Al Jazeera; TE). B3 tripped a circuit breaker and the Ibovespa fell about 14.7% to ≈174,930; USD/BRL rose about 8.8% to ≈5.42 (high 5.60), and the Treasury cancelled some bond auctions (TE; one market source, with Al Jazeera reporting a ≈12% fall in the real, so the size is unverified). In New York, XP fell about 50% and Nu about 20% intraday. This is the largest single-country EM move in this run; contagion to other EM currencies on Monday was limited (MXN −0.5% in dollar terms, i.e. the peso firmer).
- Oil came off but stayed high, and the Gulf picture is two-way: diplomats in Tehran, US strike planning reported for after the midterms. Brent December closed at about $115.8 (−0.8%, TE; an official ICE settle was not obtained) and WTI December at $101.55 (−1.67%, Yahoo). Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Kalin met President Pezeshkian in Tehran and agreed to keep talking (Al Jazeera). Trump said "there will not be a strike today" (ARY); CNN-sourced officials say US forces can strike within 96 hours of an order and most expect action after 3 November (via TheStreet, single relay). The Houthis claim new hits on the East–West pipeline; Saudi Arabia and Aramco have confirmed no damage. V024's band is rolled to the January contract today (§08), discharging the open action.
- Wednesday is still the RBA's November decision in all but name, and Monday's pricing moved toward a hike. ABC cited 61% for 3 November at noon Monday (rba.isaacgross.net, single source) against 53% on RBA RateWatch on Friday. Three of the big four expect Q3 trimmed mean at 1.0% q/q (CBA, NAB, ANZ) and Westpac 0.9%, all above the RBA's 0.8%; headline consensus is 1.2–1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y (Savings.com.au). Assistant Governor Hunter told 60 Minutes that rates had "unfortunately, not quite yet" done enough (RBA transcript). The ASX 200 rose 0.17% to 8,809.9 (verified), 90 points below V006's 8,900 line. AUD/NZD printed 1.2335 on the RBA table, ending three daily falls, 85 pips above V023's stop.
- France's relief is visible but V025's upgrade is not yet decided, because the dedicated series has not posted its 26 October row. Reuters and Bloomberg put the OAT–Bund spread at about 161bp, 5bp tighter, after Moody's held Aa3 negative (BNN Bloomberg); TE's yields imply about 154bp. Both estimates are above the 150bp line, but the view's convention is that only the dedicated series marks it, so the upgrade waits for No. 037. FRED's 23 October rows moved the other way on the bottom of the credit stack: CCC widened 16bp to 1,356bp, a new high in FRED's window, while HY tightened 2bp to 338bp and IG widened 2bp to 91bp (verified). V017 (underweight HY/CCC, High) is 33bp from its mirror.
- The Fed's front end leaned hawkish under the rally: the 2-year rose about 3bp and Monday's 2-year auction tailed. The $69bn 2-year stopped at 4.708% against 4.705% when-issued, a 0.3bp tail, with a 2.59 bid-to-cover and indirects at 45.7% against a 58.3% average (Newsquawk, RTT; verified). The intraday Fed Rate Monitor (14:25 ET) had October at 11.5% hike and at least one hike by 9 December at ≈78%, up from ≈75% on Friday's settled read. Vendor curves bull-flattened beyond 5 years: 2-year 4.72%, 10-year 4.99%, 30-year 5.30% (TE; official par posts later this morning). The five-year auction ($70bn) is tonight at 04:00 AEDT, and Microsoft and Alphabet report two hours after Thursday's FOMC statement, with options implying moves of about ±5.5% and ±6.1% (earnings-watcher, single source).
Overnight recap
Asia-Pacific Monday: a firm ASX, a soft Seoul
Australia. The ASX 200 rose 14.7 points (+0.17%) to 8,809.9 after opening down as much as 0.8% (Market Index evening wrap, in-body dateline 26 Oct 17:39 AEDT; TE 8,810; ABC "up 0.2% to 8,810"; verified). Materials led (+1.71%), then real estate (+1.32%), technology (+1.03%) and energy (+0.92%); staples (−1.54%) and discretionary (−0.96%) gave back part of Friday's rotation. ASX 300 breadth was 172 up, 108 down. BlueScope raised first-half pre-tax profit guidance to approaching A$1.1bn from A$860–960m and rose about 2.9%; Challenger rejected TAL Dai-ichi Life's A$11.80 a share bid; Tuas fell as much as 40% after Singapore's regulator sent its Simba unit a show-cause notice; CSL said chair McNamee steps down at the end of March. ACGBs barely moved: 2-year 4.91% (+1bp), 3-year 4.86% (+1bp), 10-year 5.17% (−1bp) (TE, level differences; ABC 5.17% at the 10-year). The RBA 4pm table had AUD/USD at 0.7031 and AUD/NZD at 1.2335 (verified). Assistant Governor Jones's panel at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit dealt only with financial stability: superannuation was a net buyer of domestic equities in 2008 and 2020 but faces headwinds from members drawing down, rising FX-hedging liquidity needs and administrator concentration; he said nothing on policy (RBA transcript, verified).
Japan. The Nikkei fell about 0.80% to ≈62,189, a third straight fall (TE; consistent with the morning session at 62,214.66; the Nikkei's own archive had not updated, so this is corroborated, not official). Chip names led the fall (Advantest −3.9%, Tokyo Electron −3.7%) and trading houses rose (Mitsubishi Corp +4.1%). The 10-year JGB was 2.785% (−1bp), the 30-year 3.81% (TE). Deputy Governor Himino said underlying inflation is "approaching" 2% and warned against delaying adjustment (investingLive).
China, Hong Kong, Korea, India. Xi opened the Fifth Plenum, which runs to Thursday; ING expects a political rather than economic emphasis ahead of the 2027 Party congress. Shanghai rose 0.19% to 3,697.5, the CSI 300 was flat at 4,103.54 and Shenzhen fell 1.19% (TE, single source). The Hang Seng rose 0.5% to ≈23,212 on energy (PetroChina +4.1%). The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7162 against a 6.6691 estimate, 471 pips weak of the model and the widest lean against yuan strength in this run, while onshore CNY traded at its strongest since June 2022 (investingLive; TE). The KOSPI fell 1.46% to 5,469.47 on foreign selling of chip shares before SK hynix (Wednesday) and Samsung (Thursday) results. The Sensex rose 0.51% to 73,496 and the Nifty 0.68% to 22,753 (TE, CFD-based). Taiwan was closed.
Europe Monday: a rebound with French relief
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.38% to 638.16 (TE; Investing 637.94), with banks leading: BNP +1.5%, UniCredit +1.4%, Commerzbank +2.5%. The DAX rose about 1.2% to ≈25,479 (Siemens Energy +3.9%, Bayer +3.4%, Infineon +2.9%), the CAC about 0.7% to ≈7,833, the FTSE 100 0.72% to 10,767 (Computacenter +7% on AI demand), the FTSE MIB 0.97% to 49,030.67 and the IBEX 0.40% to 19,065 (TE, CFD-based; corroborated against Friday's priors except the DAX, §13). Galp fell about 8%, the worst in the Stoxx 600, after refining-merger talks with Moeve collapsed; Telefónica fell about 7.5%. Ifo rose to 90.2 against 90.0 expected and 89.9 prior, with expectations up and the current assessment slightly weaker (ifo, verified). French bonds rallied after Moody's: the 10-year OAT fell about 4.5bp to 4.976% while the Bund rose about 1.5bp to 3.357% (Reuters/Bloomberg via BNN), putting the spread near 161bp. BTPs rallied 9bp to 4.50% (TE). UK CBI realised sales were −10 against −47 expected (ForexFactory).
Brazil Sunday night and Monday
Lula's 51.79% to 48.21% win reversed a first round that Flávio Bolsonaro led 47.0% to 45.2% and polls that had him ahead; Polymarket had priced Bolsonaro near 77% on 19 October. Bolsonaro refused to concede and is seeking annulment; the TSE confirmed the count (Al Jazeera, TE; corroborated). The market reaction was disorderly: a B3 circuit breaker, the Ibovespa down about 14.7% (TE's figures range to −16%), USD/BRL up about 8.8% to ≈5.42 after trading at 5.60, and cancelled Treasury auctions. A Tokyo-listed Bovespa ETF fell about 15% (investingLive). These are single-market-source figures and Al Jazeera's ≈12% fall in the real conflicts; §13 carries both.
New York Monday: the AI trade returns
The S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77 (+0.70%), the Dow 52,361.58 (+0.28%), the Nasdaq 26,169.38 (+0.82%) and the Russell 2000 2,785.52 (+0.35%); AP's midday read had the S&P within 1.6% of this month's record. Eight of eleven sectors were higher by late morning, led by technology and discretionary. Movers: Tesla about +6% (Barclays to Overweight, $450 target), Lumentum about +10% (StoneX Buy), Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics up 6–9%, Nvidia +2.4% to $216.00, Microsoft +1.5%; Range Resources +16% on an all-stock acquisition by EQT valued above $50bn including debt; FICO −14.5% on downgrades; Verizon −2.4% on a revenue miss despite raised EPS guidance; Alphabet −1.0%. Meta plans to sell $35bn of stock, with up to $60bn more through a new share class (AP; TheStreet's $95bn total conflicts), and fell about 2% early before recovering to −0.3%. SpaceX's roughly $40bn AI-compute financing and Musk's warning about "AI neoclouds" ran beside the Anthropic filing (CoinDesk, unverified detail). The VIX fell 0.99 to 18.46 (Yahoo; Investing 18.38 intraday).
Rates and data. Vendor closes had the 2-year at 4.72% (+2.6bp), the 5-year 4.83%, the 10-year 4.99% (−1.3bp, a one-month low) and the 30-year 5.30% (−2.4bp) (TE; CNBC levels at 15:10 ET agree within 0.5bp). The official par row for 26 October had not posted at filing. The Chicago Fed national activity index was 0.07 (prior −0.08) and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index 13.4 (prior 9.8) (TE). The 2-year auction tailed 0.3bp (bullet 6).
The Gulf, Monday
The diplomatic track was the more visible one. The Mecca Pact delegation — Saudi Arabia's defence minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence chief — met Pezeshkian in Tehran; Iran says the sides agreed to "seek peace" and continue talks, with the US demanding Hormuz reopened and nuclear limits and Iran demanding the naval blockade lifted (Al Jazeera, corroborated). The military track sits behind it: three US carrier groups in the region, CNN's 96-hour readiness report, and a New York Times report that Trump privately leans toward a new round of strikes with energy infrastructure on the target list (single source). On Hormuz, CENTCOM says 95% of vessels are getting through and Tasnim reports the IRGC declared the strait "closed" without a NAVTEX notice; Windward counted 14 transits on 21 October and Lloyd's List 104 non-Iranian transits in the week to 11 October. The vessel counts remain the arbiter and neither claim is reconciled with them. The coalition reported intercepting three drones over Riyadh and the south; UKMTO reported a vessel on fire about 63nm south-east of Al-Faw, Iraq (Newsquawk, unverified). Israel votes today: the final KAN poll had the opposition bloc on 52 seats and Netanyahu's on 50, with 61 needed.
Tuesday open
No SPI overnight figure could be verified. With the S&P up 0.7%, materials supported by gold back above $4,000 and copper firmer, and Brent off 0.8%, our inference is a modestly positive ASX open led by tech and miners. The marks to watch today are Korea's GDP at 10:00, China's industrial profits at 12:30, the 26 October OAT–Bund row, and the Israeli exit polls this evening AEDT.
Market dashboard
Monday 26 October: change from Friday's close
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,676.77 | +0.70% | +0.70% | Corroborated (Yahoo close; 7,623.68 + 53.09 ties; SPY +0.69% settled). AP 26 Oct not readable at filing. Back above the 100-day (≈7,605) |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 52,361.58 · 26,169.38 | +0.28% · +0.82% | +0.28% · +0.82% | Corroborated (Yahoo; both tie to AP's Friday closes). DIA had no settled print at filing |
| Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000 | ≈29,275 · 2,785.52 | ≈+1.09% · +0.35% | ≈+1.1% · +0.35% | NDX derived (QQQ +1.09% settled on ≈28,960). Russell corroborated (IWM +0.44%) |
| VIX · VIX3M | 18.46 · — | −5.09% | −0.99pt | Yahoo close; Investing 18.38 intraday (range 17.79–19.84). VIX3M not obtained |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | 638.16 · ≈25,479 | +0.38% · ≈+1.18% | same | TE/Investing (CFD-based). DAX change is against 25,181.65, the Friday close both vendors now show (§13) |
| CAC 40 · FTSE 100 | ≈7,833 · 10,767 | ≈+0.65% · +0.72% | same | Corroborated against Friday priors. CAC print 7,833–7,838 by source |
| FTSE MIB · IBEX 35 · SMI | 49,030.67 · 19,065 · — | +0.97% · +0.40% · — | same | MIB, IBEX tie to Friday. SMI not obtained |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | ≈62,189 · — | ≈−0.80% · — | same | TE text; arithmetic consistent with 62,693.16. Official archive not yet updated. TOPIX close not obtained |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,697.5 · 4,103.54 | +0.19% · −0.04% | same | TE, single source; Shanghai ties to Friday (3,690.5 + 7.04). TE also shows 3,692 |
| Hang Seng | ≈23,212 | +0.5% | same | TE; ABC +0.4% at 16:15. Energy led. HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 5,469.47 · closed | −1.46% · — | same | KOSPI ties exactly to Friday (TE). Taiwan reopens today; last 46,041.43 (22 Oct) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 73,496.18 · 22,753.20 | +0.51% · +0.68% | same | TE, CFD-based, single source; both tie to Friday |
| Ibovespa | ≈174,930 | ≈−14.7% | same | TE; circuit breaker. Range of reported falls −14.3% to −16%. Unverified size |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,809.9 | +0.17% | +0.17% | Verified (Market Index, TE, ABC). 90.1 points below V006's 8,900 line. SPI overnight not obtained |
| NZX 50 | ≈13,733.93 | closed | — | NZ was closed Monday (Labour Day) |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 26 Oct vendor | 4.72 · 4.83 · 4.99 · 5.30% | +2.6 · +1.0 · −1.3 · −2.4bp | — | TE closes (no timestamp); CNBC 15:10 ET 4.712 / — / 4.984 / 5.297. Official par 23 Oct: 4.69 · 4.82 · 5.00 · 5.33 (verified); 26 Oct par not posted. Vendor levels are a provisional mark, never a trigger |
| 2s10s · 5s30s (vendor) | ≈27 · ≈47bp | ≈−4 · ≈−3bp | — | Derived from vendor levels; par 23 Oct 31 · 51bp. Bull flattener beyond 5y with the front end higher |
| 2-year auction ($69bn) | 4.708% | tail 0.3bp | — | Verified (Newsquawk, RTT). Cover 2.59 vs 2.64 avg; indirects 45.7% vs 58.3%; dealers 13.0% |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.35 · 5.75% | −2 · +0.6bp | — | TE. Budget Wed 28 Oct 23:30 AEDT |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.357 · 4.976 · 4.50% | +1.5 · −4.5 · −9bp | — | Bund and OAT Reuters/Bloomberg via BNN; TE has 3.374 and 4.91 (conflict, §13). BTP TE |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 171.8bp (23 Oct) | 26 Oct ≈154–161 (est.) | — | 26 Oct row not posted (page stamped 23 Oct 17:35). Estimates: Reuters/Bloomberg ≈161bp (−5bp); TE yields ≈154bp. V025's mark is the dedicated row only |
| JGB 10y · 30y | 2.785 · 3.81% | −1 · −2bp | — | TE |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.91 · 4.86 · 5.17% | +1 · +1 · −1bp | — | TE level differences; 10y corroborated by ABC. 3s10s 31bp |
| Canada 10y · Swiss 10y | — · 0.47% | — · −3bp | — | Canada Monday close not posted (23 Oct 3.847%). Swiss TE |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS (23 Oct) | 91 · 338 · 1,356bp | +2 · −2 · +16bp | +6 · +7 · +59bp | Verified (FRED; 1w vs 16 Oct 85 · 331 · 1,297). CCC a new high in FRED's window. 26 Oct posts tonight US time |
| FX | Mon close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.95 | +0.14% | same | TE (no stamp) |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | 1.1181 · 1.3358 | −0.19% · −0.15% | same | TE. The euro did not rally with OATs |
| USD/JPY | 157.40 | +0.34% | same | TE. Investing's page was stale (23 Oct) and not used; Asia range 156.75–157.10 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7031 (RBA) · 0.7026 (NY) | +0.36% (RBA) · −0.09% (NY) | same | RBA 4pm verified. NY TE. Bases not blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2335 (RBA) · 0.5693 | +0.18% (RBA) · −0.09% | same | RBA 4pm verified: ends three daily falls (1.2357 → 1.2336 → 1.2313 → 1.2335). NY cross ≈1.2342 (derived). 85 pips above V023's stop |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4022 · 0.8272 | +0.13% · +0.27% | same | TE |
| USD/CNY · fix | 6.6679 · 6.7162 | −0.02% | same | Fix vs estimate 6.6691: 471 pips weak (investingLive, verified). CNY strongest since Jun 2022 |
| USD/BRL | ≈5.42 | ≈+8.8% | same | TE, high 5.60; Al Jazeera ≈12% real fall. Unverified size |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN | 95.36 · 1,323.1 · 18.575 | +0.17 · −0.04 · −0.50% | same | TE, single source. RBI runs a special FX window for oil refiners |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | ≈$115.8 | ≈−0.8% | same | Unverified as a settle: TE 115.79 near the close, 115.38 after hours. Expires Fri 30 Oct |
| Brent JANUARY | ≈$111.07 | −0.56% | same | Investing continuous (rolled to Jan; H 112.20 L 109.25), single source. Most press "Brent" quotes of $110–112 are this contract |
| Dec–Jan spread | $5.02 (23 Oct) · ≈$4.72 (26 Oct) | −0.30 | — | 23 Oct: Dec 116.72 / Jan 111.70 on one dated contracts table, corroborated by TradingView's implied priors. 26 Oct derived across two vendors |
| WTI DECEMBER | $101.55 | −1.67% | same | Yahoo CL=F close; TE shows 102.31 and 102.18 on one page (conflict) |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $2.61 · €95.78 | −1.1% · +2.0% | same | HH intraday low 2.53, lowest since Oct 2024 (TE) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,010.20 | +0.38% | same | Verified (Kitco mid, 15:05 ET; range 3,977.90–4,030.60). Back above $4,000 after an Asian dip below |
| Silver · Platinum | ≈$54.0 · ≈$1,531–1,543 | ≈0.0% · ≈−1.5% | — | TE snapshots disagree; single source |
| Copper LME cash · COMEX | $14,415/t (23 Oct) · ≈$6.50/lb | — · +0.4% | — | Westmetall's 26 Oct settlement not yet posted; COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% · aluminium | $90.78 · $3,043.6 | −0.1% · −0.1% | — | TE, single source |
| Bitcoin | ≈$79,908 | −0.8% | same | CoinGecko ≈06:00 AEDT; CoinDesk $79,844 (−0.61% 24h). Sunday's daily close $80,053 was the lowest since 17 Sep |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,312 · $100.4 · $1.29 · $742 | −1.8 · −1.3 · −0.8 · −0.1% | — | CoinGecko. Total cap $2.79tn; BTC dominance 57.7% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC −$137.9m (23 Oct) | 26 Oct placeholder | — | Farside (verified); Monday shows "–", not zero. ETH page served a stale cache. Deribit monthly expiry Fri 30 Oct, ≈$10.9bn open, max pain $78k |
Conventions: 1d is Monday 26 October; because Monday is the first session of the week, 1w equals 1d unless marked. US cash closes are corroborated (Yahoo close tied to AP's Friday levels) pending AP. Treasury levels are vendor closes; the official par row is shown where it exists. FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is the New York close (TE, no timestamp) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two bases are never blended. "≈" marks a derived or single-source value and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. AI and credit: equities found a new buyer, credit did not
Monday's rally was a single-theme day. Anthropic's S-1, which media reports put at more than $16bn of first-half revenue, gave the market a revenue datapoint for the model layer just as last week's sell-off had been about whether AI capex earns a return; the Nasdaq-100 rose ≈1.1% (QQQ +1.09%), semis more than 3% intraday, and optical-networking names 6–10%. The financing side moved the other way on the same day: Meta announced a $35bn share sale with up to $60bn more through a new share class (AP), on top of its third-quarter free cash flow of −$2.1bn and a $135–145bn capex guide; SpaceX lined up about $40bn for compute. FRED's 23 October rows, one session older, had CCC at 1,356bp (+16bp, a new high in FRED's window) while HY tightened 2bp to 338bp and IG widened 2bp to 91bp. FactSet has Q3 S&P earnings growth at 29.5% with 24% reported and 83% beating, a forward P/E of 18.7, and 179 companies reporting this week.
2. Oil: the Gulf war has reached Saudi Arabia's export bypass
Brent December gave back about $0.9 to ≈$115.8 and WTI $1.72 to $101.55, the first down day after three weeks of gains. Two things drove it: the Mecca Pact delegation in Tehran, and the absence of confirmed damage from the Houthi claims against the East–West pipeline, which carries about 5.8mb/d against 7mb/d of capacity (TE, single source). The US also authorised a 400,000-barrel SPR release for a Louisiana refinery outage (Reuters via Yahoo). The structure says the market still pays for prompt barrels: December traded about $5 over January on Friday's settles ($116.72 against $111.70) and about $4.7 on Monday's vendor closes. Analysts at Vanda say the reprieve "may prove temporary"; Gallo Partners puts the risk premium near $20 a barrel (via Energy News Beat). OPEC+'s seven core producers meet on Sunday 1 November.
3. Brazil: a political shock with a market-structure tail
Brazil is new to this list. A result that went against the first round and the prediction markets produced, by TE's figures, a ≈14.7% fall in the Ibovespa and a ≈8.8% rise in USD/BRL on the day, with a circuit breaker and cancelled Treasury auctions; US-listed XP and Nu fell about 50% and 20% intraday. The size of the moves suggests positioning was heavily skewed toward a Bolsonaro win (Polymarket had him near 77% on 19 October), which is an inference from price, not a positioning dataset. Bolsonaro's annulment challenge keeps political uncertainty open; the TSE has confirmed the count.
4. France: the relief is in the price, the mark is not
Moody's affirmation of Aa3 negative brought the expected relief: Reuters and Bloomberg had the OAT at 4.976% (−4.5bp) and the Bund at 3.357%, a spread of about 161bp, 5bp tighter, after the widest levels since 2011 last week (BNN Bloomberg). TE's yields give about 154bp. French banks led the Stoxx 600 rebound (BNP +1.5%). Weekend protests were smaller than the week before. The social-security budget vote is reported for today but we could not confirm a date; S&P reviews France on 27 November.
5. Australia: one morning decides November
The bank previews have converged on a hot core print: CBA, NAB and ANZ expect trimmed mean at 1.0% q/q and 3.6% y/y, Westpac 0.9% and 3.5%, all above the RBA's 0.8% (Savings.com.au, 23 October). Westpac and ANZ call a November hike; CBA holds with "risk rising". Hunter's 60 Minutes answer — asked whether the bank had done enough, "unfortunately, not quite yet" — was the most hawkish public line from the RBA this month, following Hauser's "materially worse" on 21 October. Pricing moved to ≈61% on Monday (ABC, single source) from 53% on Friday. The 3-year at 4.86% is 26bp above cash.
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing by meeting, intraday Monday 26 October
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · presser 05:30 · blackout | 28 Oct: hold 88.5% / hike 11.5% (Investing, 14:25 ET intraday). ≥1 hike by 9 Dec ≈78% (69.6% + 8.7%). CME (tracker) 88/12; Kalshi 89–91.5% hold; Polymarket 91.5% | Hawkish hold |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30 | ≈53–61%: RateWatch 53% any hike (15:57 Fri); RateProbability 56.4% (cached 25 Oct); ABC cites 61% at noon Mon (single source) | Tightening bias; Nov live |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 · presser 13:00 | +25bp to 3.00% "almost fully priced"; ASB's Smith ≈90%. ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac call a hike; Westpac says a formal vote is possible. No OIS print obtained | Hiking |
| BoC | 2.25% | Holds in 2026 | Thu 29 Oct 00:45 + MPR | +25bp ≈81% (investingLive, 25 Oct). Reuters poll 19 of 34 for a hike; HSBC hike, TD sceptical | Hike likely |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 · presser 00:45 | Hold expected; Morgan Stanley sees December as the next hike. Only Elderson spoke Monday (Econostream) | Hold; TPI questions |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct ≈13:00–14:00 + Outlook Report (boj.or.jp: 29–30 Oct) | Hold expected; Reuters poll points to December. Takata, Tamura may dissent hawkishly. Himino: inflation "approaching" 2% | Hold, then December |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | November hike ≈98% (Stevenson Substack, single source); three hikes by April 2027 (TE). Budget Wed 28 Oct | Hawkish |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Held 20 Oct | LPR Fri 20 Nov | Fix 6.7162 vs estimate 6.6691 (26 Oct, 471 pips); CNY398bn overnight reverse repo | Leaning against CNY |
| BoK · BI | 3.00% · 5.75% | BoK held 22 Oct · BI held 21 Oct | BI 18 Nov · BoK 26 Nov | Korea Q3 GDP today (ING: 0.8% q/q) | Hold, Nov live |
| BCB · Banxico | Selic n/r · 6.50% | — | Banxico 5 Nov | BRL ≈+8.8% after the runoff; no BCB action found at filing | Watch BCB |
| Riksbank · Norges · RBI · SNB · CBR · CBRT | 1.75 · 4.50 · 5.50 · 0.00 · 14.00 · 36.00% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep; CBR held 23 Oct | Riksbank 4 Nov · Norges 5 Nov · RBI 4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec · CBR 18 Dec | TE rates, single source; not refreshed | Mixed |
Fed. The Committee meets today and tomorrow ET. Monday's intraday read nudged hawkish (October 11.5% hike from 10.3%; December ≥1 hike ≈78% from ≈75%), consistent with the 2-year's 3bp rise and the tailed auction; a re-fetch at 17:06 ET (08:06 AEDT) still showed the 14:25 ET stamp, so the settled refresh is not in this edition. The same read has January 2027 at 50.2% for 4.00–4.25% and March 2027 modal at 4.25–4.50% (43.8%). Chair Warsh has abandoned forward guidance and did not submit SEP dots in September; the Bond Buyer counts up to three possible hawkish dissents (Hammack, Logan and Kashkari voted to hike in July), while Williams and Jefferson have signalled no appetite for a move this week. SocGen estimates about 64bp of hikes priced over 12 months.
RBNZ and BoC. Every major New Zealand bank now calls a 25bp hike to 3.00% on Wednesday; ASB sees another in December and 3.5% by February, Westpac a 4.0% peak by September 2027. The NZ election is on 7 November and Labour has pledged to restore the employment leg of the mandate. In Canada a hike would be the first in over a year; BMO's Porter calls it unwarranted but likely.
ECB and BoJ. No ECB sources stories surfaced on Monday; Econostream's tone meter says higher yields have tempered hawkishness. The BoJ's question is the Outlook Report's language on underlying inflation after Himino's "approaching" 2%.
Regional briefs
United States
A one-day recovery into the decision. The S&P's +0.70% erased last week's −0.5%. Today: durable goods (TE consensus +1.5% m/m, ForexFactory 1.8%; core capex 0.7%), Case-Shiller, Conference Board confidence (81.0 TE, 80.7 FF, 80.5 Rio Times; prior 81.9), new home sales, the Richmond Fed and the $70bn 5-year auction (prior 5.033%). Coca-Cola, Boeing, Visa and UPS report. Thursday ET brings Q3 GDP (3.2% consensus; GDPNow 3.5%), September PCE (headline 3.6% y/y, core 3.1%) and claims; Friday the Q3 ECI. Midterms on 3 November: DeFiRate had a Democratic House at 90.6¢ on Kalshi and 92¢ on Polymarket, and a sweep at 63.5–65.5¢ (14:58 ET Monday). Funding runs to 11 December.
Euro area
Ifo steadies, France exhales. Ifo rose to 90.2 on better expectations. The Stoxx 600 recovered 0.38% after its worst week since early September, banks leading. BTPs rallied 9bp to 4.50%, about 48bp through OATs on TE's level. This week: ECB Thursday night AEDT, Q3 GDP flashes Friday (euro area 0.2% q/q expected after 0.6%; Germany 0.1%, France 0.1%), German flash CPI Friday. The October flash HICP is Wednesday 4 November (ForexFactory, TE), not 3 November as No. 035 had it.
United Kingdom
Budget day is Wednesday at 12:30 GMT (23:30 AEDT). Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget under PM Andy Burnham (uktaxdrag, City AM, ITV; corroborated). Newsquawk expects headroom near £15bn against £23.6bn in spring, with a bank surcharge as the main revenue raiser; income tax, VAT and employee NI rates are already ruled out, thresholds are frozen to 2031, and a £2m-plus mansion tax starts in 2028. April–August borrowing ran £8.1bn over the OBR forecast. Gilts were steady (10-year 5.35%). The BoE's November hike is near fully priced.
Japan
Chips down, trading houses up. The Nikkei fell about 0.8% to ≈62,189, its third straight fall, with Advantest and Tokyo Electron down near 4%. USD/JPY rose to 157.40. Himino's "approaching" 2% sets up Friday's Outlook Report. Friday morning also brings Tokyo October CPI (core 2.6% consensus, 2.7% prior), jobs, industrial production (+1.3% m/m) and retail sales.
China & Hong Kong
The Plenum opens; the PBoC leans harder. Xi opened the Fifth Plenum with a call for "firm governance measures" (TE); a communiqué is expected Thursday evening or Friday. The PBoC set the fix 471 pips weak of the model while onshore CNY traded at its strongest since June 2022, the widest lean in this run. September industrial profits are due today (ING lists the week; time ≈12:30 AEDT, unconfirmed) and the official PMIs on Saturday (manufacturing 50.1 expected). The US–China truce runs to 10 January 2027 after the September extension (single source).
Emerging markets
Brazil breaks, the rest hold. Brazil is in §04. Korea reports Q3 GDP at about 10:00 AEDT (ING 0.8% q/q, 3.2% y/y) after the KOSPI's 1.5% fall; SK hynix reports Wednesday and Samsung Thursday. Taiwan reopens today; Q3 GDP is Friday (ING 11.4% y/y). India's rupee is at 95.36 with the RBI running a special window for oil refiners. Israel votes today: the final KAN poll has the opposition at 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 50, with up to 15 seats possible for Arab parties at 65% turnout (Al Jazeera).
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA before CPI
The cash rate is 4.60%. Pricing for 3 November is ≈53–61%: RBA RateWatch 53% for any hike (49% for 25bp) at 15:57 Friday, RateProbability 56.4% (cached 25 October), and ABC's 61% at noon Monday citing rba.isaacgross.net (single source), with a hike fully priced by February and two hikes under 25%. The RBA's own speeches page confirms Hunter's 60 Minutes line: asked whether the bank had done enough, "unfortunately, not quite yet". Jones's Monday panel was confined to financial stability, including a warning that an unexpected early release of super in a crisis would be a stability risk (COVID-era outflows ran 1–2% of fund assets, 5–6% at some funds). Senate Estimates with Bullock and four colleagues is Wednesday at 11:15, then Q3 and September CPI at 11:30.
Markets: miners back, staples sold
Equities. 8,809.9 (+0.17%), after opening down 0.8%; the index closed 1% above its low. Materials +1.71% with gold back above $4,000 and copper firmer; real estate +1.32%; staples −1.54%. Top movers: Zip +11.0%, Pilbara +8.4%, Eagers +7.7%; ZIM −5.6%, Neuren −4.7%. BlueScope's guidance upgrade, Challenger's rejection of TAL and Tuas's regulatory notice were the company news. Market Index ChartWatch zones: supply 8,935–8,940, demand 8,613–8,641. Currency. RBA table AUD/USD 0.7031 (+25 pips), AUD/NZD 1.2335; TE describes AUD near a five-week high. Rates. 2-year 4.91%, 3-year 4.86%, 10-year 5.17%: almost unchanged ahead of the print.
The CPI set-up
Big-four forecasts (Savings.com.au, 23 October): headline 1.2–1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y from all four; trimmed mean 1.0% q/q and 3.6% y/y from CBA, NAB and ANZ, 0.9% and 3.5% from Westpac. Westpac's preview puts the September monthly CPI at +0.62% m/m, taking the annual rate to 4.1%; ForexFactory lists 4.2% against 4.0%. The RBA's August forecast implies 0.8% for the quarter. Property is softening: Cotality had capital-city clearance below 50% again at the weekend, with Sydney below 50% for the first time in 12 weeks and Brisbane at 25% (via ABC, single source). Iron ore is $90.78.
New Zealand
Markets reopen today after Labour Day. The RBNZ decides Wednesday at 12:00 AEDT with every major bank calling a third consecutive 25bp hike to 3.00% and ASB putting pricing near 90%. Q3 CPI was 3.7% y/y, below the RBNZ's 3.9% forecast, but the NZD below US60c is about 4% weaker than the bank assumed. The general election is on 7 November.
| Australia & NZ — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · ≈53–61% priced |
| CPI Q3 · Sep monthly | — | Bank forecasts: Q3 1.2–1.3% q/q, 3.9% y/y; trimmed mean 0.9–1.0% q/q, 3.5–3.6% y/y; Sep 4.1–4.2% y/y | Wed 28 Oct 11:30 |
| RBA Senate Estimates | — | Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Jones, Kent | Wed 28 Oct 11:15 |
| ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence | 67.7 (20 Oct) | 12th-lowest since 1973 | Today (time not confirmed) |
| Q3 PPI · Sep private credit | — | Cons 1.0% q/q · 0.5% m/m | Fri 30 Oct 11:30 |
| Auction clearance (Cotality) | Below 50% (capitals) | Sydney below 50% first time in 12 weeks | Weekly |
| NZ CPI (Q3) | 3.7% y/y | RBNZ forecast 3.9% | RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00 |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | 4.86 · 5.17% | +1 · −1bp on Monday | — |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm) | 0.7031 · 1.2335 | 0.7006 · 1.2313 (23 Oct) | Daily 16:00 |
House views & tactical framework
What moved. V024's open action is discharged: the band is restated on the January contract using the 23 October settles (December $116.72, January $111.70, a $5.02 spread read from one dated contracts table and matched by TradingView's implied priors). V025's decider, the 26 October dedicated row, has not posted; secondary estimates of 154–161bp are recorded but not used. V017's CCC leg widened to 1,356bp while HY tightened 2bp. V031 moved ≈1.1% against with the Nasdaq-100. V006 lost 0.2 points of its cushion. V023 recovered 22 pips.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | Dedicated series 171.8bp (23 Oct); 26 Oct row not posted. Secondary estimates ≈161bp (Reuters/Bloomberg) and ≈154bp (TE yields), not used as the mark. ≈+78bp from a ≈94bp entry. Post-Moody's relief is real but modest | CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop. PRE-COMMITTED UPGRADE, UNCHANGED: High if the 26 Oct dedicated row is ≥150bp (23 Oct leg met). Mirror: Med on two consecutive prints below 140bp. ⚠ No. 037 marks it |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED 23 Oct: IG 91bp (+2), HY 338bp (−2), CCC 1,356bp (+16, new high in FRED's window). Meta's $35bn-plus equity raise and SpaceX's ≈$40bn compute financing land in the same week as the mega-cap results | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (306bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (33bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +2.18% in favour: 8,809.9 against 9,005.9. Bank previews converge on a 1.0% trimmed mean; RBA November ≈53–61% | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (90.1 points, +1.02%, away; 0 of 2). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct |
| Nasdaq-100 (V031) | Put spread (hedge) | Low | 1–2 mo | ≈29,275 on 26 Oct (derived, QQQ +1.09%): ≈−0.3% against since entry (29,187.55). Anthropic's S-1 lifted the AI complex; MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET (±5.5% / ±6.1% implied), AMZN Thu ET (±7.7%) | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (≈5.7% above the mark) |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2335 on the RBA 4pm table (26 Oct, verified), +0.16% against ≈1.2315; the three-day slide ended. RBNZ hike near fully priced, RBA ≈53–61%: the relative surprise now sits with Australia | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (85 pips away). Dates: AU CPI and RBNZ Wed 28 Oct |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December ≈$115.8 and January ≈$111.07 on 26 Oct (vendor closes, unverified as settles). Tehran diplomacy against reported post-midterm strike planning; no confirmed Saudi damage | ROLLED TODAY: two consecutive JANUARY settles in $81.51–84.51 (the December band $86.53–89.53 less the verified $5.02 Dec–Jan spread of 23 Oct; ≈$27–30 below). December settles inside $86.53–89.53 still count until its expiry on Fri 30 Oct. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Ledger. Six views open; 25 closed: 3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 18 decided calls have been right. No view closed and no conviction changed since Monday.
Portfolio-level read. Monday was a risk-on session that cost the hedges a little (V031) and left the carry views where they were. The book's centre of gravity is still funding stress (V017, V025) and an Australian inflation call expressed both as an equity underweight and a cross (V006, V023). The next 48 hours are unusually concentrated: CPI and the RBNZ within 30 minutes on Wednesday, then the BoC, FOMC and two mega-caps inside seven hours on Thursday morning AEDT. We would not add gross into that window; every open view already has its resolution date inside it.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 20 October; the next report (as of 27 October) publishes Friday US time. The ultra-bond and 5-year leveraged-fund rows flagged in No. 035 were re-checked against the raw file and confirmed. Nets are this desk's arithmetic. Sentiment pages below are as of Friday 23 October unless dated.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 20 October (re-checked) | |||
| UST 5y (long · short · net) | 442,604 · 2,560,148 · −2,117,544 | −13,153 | Confirmed against the raw file |
| Ultra bond (long · short · net) | 66,548 · 871,356 · −804,808 | −89,079 (shorts +95,313) | Confirmed. The only material new duration short of the week |
| Six-contract Treasury total | −6,796,358 | +86,985 | Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted |
| E-mini S&P · AUD · JPY · EUR | −371,245 · +52,497 · −22,890 · −68,840 | +37,481 · +1,906 · +10,783 · −839 | Legacy non-commercial AUD −127,292: opposite sign, both real |
| Flows — universes labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA Flow Show "Enter the Dragon" (EPFR, week to 21 Oct; dated 22 Oct) | Global equity +$55.6bn · tech +$18.8bn | Consumer −$2.1bn, largest outflow since Feb 2014 | Bull & Bear 7.2 (from 7.4). Hartnett: "tactically risk-off until mid-November", 30-year toward 5%, DXY below 100 (via Finvaulta) |
| BofA credit flows (23 Oct) | Long-term high grade: 5th week of inflows | HY 2nd week of inflows | Total high-grade funds: 4th week of outflows |
| ICI money funds (week to 21 Oct) | $7.945tn | +$21.49bn | Institutional +$24.01bn, retail −$2.52bn (verified) |
| US spot BTC ETFs (Farside) | −$635.6m (22 Oct) · −$137.9m (23 Oct) | 26 Oct placeholder | CoinShares weekly not obtained |
| Surveys, volatility and breadth | |||
| AAII (week to 21 Oct) | Bulls 36.9% · bears 45.8% | Spread −8.9 | Next survey Thursday |
| Fear & Greed replica (23 Oct) | 11 — extreme fear | Six sessions in extreme fear | Junk-bond demand 1, safe-haven demand 3. Monday's print not posted |
| VIX · SKEW · put/call | 18.46 (26 Oct) · 151.8 · 0.94 | SKEW 86th pct (1y); P/C 22 Oct | SpotGamma (25 Oct): dealers short gamma below the risk pivot; event vol ≈20% for 28–29 Oct against ≈14% now |
| % S&P above 200-day · Hindenburg | 58.6% · inactive (2 of 4) | 23 Oct | New highs 119 against new lows 296; McClellan +10.55 |
| BofA FMS (October) | Long semis most crowded; short USTs second | Tail risk: disorderly yields, then AI bubble | Tech overweight 37%, highest since Aug 2020 (investingLive) |
| FactSet (23 Oct) | Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +29.5% | 24% reported; 83% beat EPS, 66% revenue | Q4 guidance 7 of 17 negative; 179 S&P companies report this week |
| Sell-side (dated 22–26 Oct) | HSBC's Kettner ends bullish stocks call (26 Oct, headline) | BofA FX: YE UST 10y 5.00%, EUR 1.15, USD/JPY 152 | BofA technicals: H&S neckline ≈7,616, target 7,395 (S&P closed back above it) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 27 October — Israel votes · Plenum day 2 · Taiwan reopens | ||||||
| Tue | ≈08:00 | Mon 17:00 | Official par curve 26 Oct · settled Fed Rate Monitor · OAT–Bund 26 Oct row (V025 decider, time not fixed) | 171.8bp | H | |
| Tue | ≈10:00 | Mon 19:00 | Korea Q3 GDP (advance) q/q · y/y | 0.8% · 3.2% (ING) | M | |
| Tue | ≈12:30 | Mon 21:30 | China industrial profits (Sep, YTD) — date unconfirmed · PBoC fix ≈12:15 | M | ||
| Tue | evening | — | Israel election exit polls (KAN final poll 52–50) · France social-security vote (reported) | H | ||
| Tue | 23:30 | 08:30 | US durable goods (Sep) · ex-transport · core capex | +1.5% (TE) / 1.8% (FF) · 0.6% · 0.7% | 0.0% · 0.3% · 1.6% | M |
| Wed | 00:00 · 01:00 | 09:00 · 10:00 | Case-Shiller (Aug) · Conference Board confidence (Oct) · new home sales · Richmond Fed | 2.5% · 80.7–81.0 · 650k · 1 | 2.5% · 81.9 · 684k · −2 | M |
| Wed | 04:00 | 13:00 | UST 5-year auction ($70bn) · Coca-Cola, Boeing, Visa, UPS results | 5.033% | M | |
| Wednesday 28 October — Australia's decisive morning, then the UK Budget | ||||||
| Wed | 11:15 | Tue 20:15 | RBA Senate Estimates (Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Jones, Kent) | H | ||
| Wed | 11:30 | Tue 20:30 | AU CPI: Q3 q/q · y/y · trimmed mean · Sep monthly y/y | 1.2–1.3% · 3.9% · TM 0.9–1.0% q/q · 4.1–4.2% | 0.6% · 3.9% · TM 0.8% (RBA fcst) · 4.0% | H |
| Wed | 12:00 · 13:00 | Tue 21:00 | RBNZ OCR decision · press conference | 3.00% (near fully priced) | 2.75% | H |
| Wed | day | — | SK hynix results · Santander, UBS, GSK, GE Vernova (Europe/US pre-market) | M | ||
| Wed | 23:30 | 08:30 | UK Budget (Healey) + OBR · US advance goods trade | Headroom ≈£15bn · −$130bn | £23.6bn · −$132.1bn | H |
| Thursday 29 October — BoC, Fed, the mega-caps | ||||||
| Thu | 00:45 | Wed 09:45 | Bank of Canada + MPR | 2.50% (≈81%) | 2.25% | H |
| Thu | 01:30 | Wed 10:30 | EIA crude inventories | −0.3m | −3.1m | M |
| Thu | 05:00 · 05:30 | Wed 14:00 · 14:30 | FOMC statement · Warsh press conference | Hold (≈88–92%) | 3.75–4.00% | H |
| Thu | ≈07:05 | Wed 16:05 | Microsoft (EPS est. $4.71) · Alphabet ($2.94) · ServiceNow · T-Mobile | Implied ±5.5% · ±6.1% | H | |
| Thu | day | — | Samsung results · China Plenum closes (communiqué Thu evening or Fri) · Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Shell, TotalEnergies | M | ||
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US Q3 GDP (advance) · Sep PCE headline · core (m/m · y/y) · claims | 3.2% · 0.5% · 3.6% · 0.3% · 3.1% · 198–200k | 2.2% · 0.3% · 3.4% · 0.2% · 3.0% · 194k | H |
| Friday 30 October — ECB, BoJ, Amazon, Brent December expiry | ||||||
| Fri | 00:15 · 00:45 | Thu 09:15 · 09:45 | ECB decision · Lagarde press conference | Hold | DFR 2.50% | H |
| Fri | ≈07:00 | Thu 16:00 | Amazon ($2.01) · Intel ($0.28) · Gilead · Starbucks | AMZN implied ±7.7% | H | |
| Fri | 10:30 · 10:50 · 11:30 | Thu 19:30 · 19:50 · 20:30 | Tokyo core CPI · Japan jobless · Japan IP, retail · AU Q3 PPI · Sep private credit | 2.6% · 2.5% · 1.3% · 1.0% · 0.5% | 2.7% · 2.5% · −2.4% · 1.3% · 0.6% | M |
| Fri | ≈13:00–14:00 | Thu ≈22:00–23:00 | BoJ decision + Outlook Report (time not fixed) · Ueda press conference | Hold | 1.25% | H |
| Fri | 17:30 – 21:00 | 02:30 – 06:00 | France GDP, CPI · Spain CPI, GDP · Germany GDP · euro-area Q3 GDP flash · Taiwan Q3 GDP · Brent December expiry | EZ 0.2% q/q · DE 0.1% · FR 0.1% | EZ 0.6% · DE 0.3% | M |
| Fri | evening · 23:30 | Fri · 08:30 | German flash CPI (Oct) · US ECI (Q3) · Canada GDP · Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie | 0.1% m/m · 0.8% · 0.2% | 0.6% · 0.9% · 0.0% | H |
| Sat 31 | 00:45 · 12:30 | Fri 09:45 · 21:30 | Chicago PMI · China official PMIs (Oct) mfg · non-mfg | 54.8–55.5 · 50.1 · 50.5 | 58.8 · 50.1 · 50.2 | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 1–7 Nov | — | — | OPEC+ (seven core producers) Sun 1 Nov · US DST ends Sun 1 · Apple Mon 2 ET · US ISM mfg 02:00 Tue 3 · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 · Melbourne Cup Tue 3 · euro-area flash HICP Wed 4 Nov 21:00 · US JOLTS Wed 4 · Riksbank Wed 4 · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · Norges, Banxico Thu 5 · US payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30 · NZ election Sat 7 | H | ||
| 8–30 Nov | — | — | US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 · Veterans Day (US bond market closed Wed 11) · BI 18 Nov · PBoC LPR 20 Nov · BoK 26 Nov · S&P on France 27 Nov · APEC Shenzhen (Trump–Xi), date not confirmed · government funding to 11 Dec | M | ||
⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement; ForexFactory's impact column does not render. Consensus from Trading Economics, ForexFactory, Newsquawk, ING and the big four banks (23–26 Oct); where calendars disagree the range is shown. Changes since Monday's edition: euro-area October flash HICP is Wed 4 Nov (No. 035 had 3 Nov); US Conference Board consensus is 80.7–81.0 (No. 035 had 80.5); RBNZ pricing moved from ≈75–80% to near fully priced; Meta reported on 21 Oct and is not this week.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawkish central-bank cluster into an oil shock | RBNZ Wed; BoC, FOMC Thu AEDT; ECB, BoJ Fri | Fed Dec ≥1 hike ≈78% (Investing, intraday); BoC ≈81%; RBNZ near fully priced | Front ends higher; equity multiple pressure; AUD crosses whipsaw | 2-year options |
| 2 | US strike on Iran after the midterms, or a hit on Saudi exports | CNN: 96-hour readiness, action expected after 3 Nov; Houthi East–West claims | Kalshi WTI ≥$115 by 31 Dec 43.1% (25 Oct) | Brent through $120; diesel and freight; EM importers | V024's residual call |
| 3 | AI-capex funding reaches mega-cap earnings | MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET, AMZN/INTC Thu ET, AAPL 2 Nov; Meta's equity raise | Implied moves ±5.5 / ±6.1 / ±7.7% (single source) | Semis are the FMS's most crowded long; Nasdaq-100 retraces Monday | V031 |
| 4 | Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY | CCC 1,356bp, a new high in FRED's window (23 Oct) | HY toward 375bp; private-credit marks; neocloud funding | V017 (High) | |
| 5 | RBA hikes on 3 November | Q3 CPI and Estimates Wed 28 Oct | ≈53–61% (RateWatch, RateProbability, ABC) | ACGB 3y back through 5%; AUD higher; rate-sensitives lower | V006; V023 |
| 6 | Brazil contagion | Annulment challenge; BCB response; second-day flows | EM FX carry unwind; LatAm credit; US-listed Brazil names | Short-dated USD/BRL calls (no house view) | |
| 7 | France: relief fades, budget fails | Social-security vote (reported today); ECB Thu; S&P 27 Nov | OAT–Bund back through 175bp; bank equity; BTP contagion | V025 | |
| 8 | Midterm sweep and policy shock | 3 Nov | Dem sweep 63.5¢ (Kalshi), 65.5¢ (Polymarket), 26 Oct 14:58 ET | Tariff, sanctions and fiscal reversal risk; post-election Gulf action | Q4 collars |
| 9 | UK Budget disappoints on fiscal rules | Wed 28 Oct 23:30 AEDT; BoE 5 Nov | BoE Nov hike ≈98% (single source) | Gilt 30y through 5.9% | Gilt 10s30s steepener |
| 10 | Israel election produces a deadlock | Today; KAN poll 52–50, 61 needed | Caretaker government into a Gulf escalation; reported pre-election action disputes | — | |
| 11 | BoJ language shift and a yen squeeze | Fri 30 Oct Outlook Report; Himino "approaching" 2% | USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto | Short-dated USD/JPY puts |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,676.77 | 7,616 (BofA neckline) · 7,605 (100-day) · 7,564 | 7,702 (50-day) · 7,757 · 7,815 (6 Oct record) | MAs and supports per Lance Roberts (26 Oct); BofA H&S target 7,395 if the neckline breaks |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈29,275 | 29,188 (V031 entry) · 28,826 (23 Oct low) | 29,822 · 30,932 (V031 closes) | Monday intraday 29,338.51 (MarketScreener) |
| UST 10y · 2y | 4.99% · 4.72% (vendor) | 4.96% (22 Oct par) | 5.09% (16 Oct par) · 2y auction 4.708% | Par 26 Oct posts this morning |
| OAT–Bund | 171.8bp (23 Oct) | 150 (upgrade line) · 140 (mirror) · 80 (V025 closes) | 174.6 (22 Oct one-year high) | Dedicated series is the mark; 26 Oct estimates 154–161 |
| ACGB 3y · 10y | 4.86 · 5.17% | 4.80 · 5.10 | 4.91 · 5.26 | Supports are our reading |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 101.95 · 1.1181 · 157.40 | 101.50 · 1.1100 · 156.08 | 102.88 · 1.1300 · 158.4 | BofA year-end USD/JPY 152 |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7031 · 1.2335 (RBA) | 0.6896 (15 Oct low) · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.7050 · 1.2357 (21 Oct RBA) | Bases never blended |
| Brent (Jan) | ≈$111.07 | $109.25 (26 Oct low) · $81.51–84.51 (V024, rolled) | $112.20 · Dec $116.72 equivalent ≈$111.70 | December ≈$115.8 expires Fri 30 Oct |
| Gold · Silver | $4,010 · ≈$54 | $3,978 (26 Oct low) · $3,950 | $4,031 · $4,145 (22 Oct high) | Kitco; $3,950 is our reading |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,809.9 | 8,613–8,641 (demand zone) | 8,900 (V006 closes) · 8,935–8,940 (supply) | Zones per Market Index ChartWatch |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 91 / 338 / 1,356bp (23 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) | HY 350 · CCC 1,356 (high in window) | FRED |
| Bitcoin | ≈$79,900 | $78,000 (Deribit max pain) · $76,000 | $81,562 · $84,262 | No view open; $10.9bn options expire Fri |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Tuesday edition: six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:15 AEDT; the lead re-fetched the US-close block after 07:10 AEDT, per the timing protocol. The AP tabulation for Monday 26 October was not indexed or readable at filing (the La Nación syndication returned client errors three times), so US cash closes are the Yahoo Finance close, each tied exactly to Friday's AP close plus the reported change and checked against settled SPY, QQQ and IWM: corroborated, not verified. The official par curve for 26 October and the settled Fed Rate Monitor refresh both post after filing; Treasury levels are vendor closes and the Fed figure is a 14:25 ET intraday read, labelled as such. The RBA 4pm table, the ASX close, FRED to 23 October, the Kitco gold print and the Ifo release were read from their primaries. Every figure was retrieved on 26–27 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 035
(1) Euro-area October flash HICP is Wednesday 4 November (ForexFactory, TE calendar), not Tuesday 3 November as No. 035's calendar showed (it was marked unconfirmed).
(2) DAX, Friday 23 October — unresolved, now leaning to the alternative. No. 035 used 25,152.30; TE and Investing.com both now show 25,181.65 (−0.75%) as Friday's close, and Monday's quotes tie to that level. Investing's own "previous close" field still shows 25,152.31. Monday's change is computed against 25,181.65; a Xetra print is needed to settle it.
(3) RBNZ pricing moved from ≈75–80% (No. 035) to "almost fully priced"; an update, not an error.
(4) Discharged from Monday's list: FRED for 23 October (IG 91, HY 338, CCC 1,356); RBA 4pm for 26 October (0.7031, 1.2335); the verified December–January Brent spread ($5.02 on 23 October) and V024's roll; Brazil's runoff result; the CFTC ultra-bond and 5-year rows re-checked against the raw file (confirmed). Not discharged: the 26 October OAT–Bund dedicated row; Brent December 26 October official settle; ASX IB futures for 3 November; AP for 26 October.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Brent levels: AP and Yahoo quoted Brent near $110–112 on Monday while TE's CFD showed ≈$115.8; the difference is the contract month (press quotes follow January after Investing's continuous series rolled), so December ≈$115.8 and January ≈$111.07 are both shown and labelled. Market Index's $109.62 at 17:39 AEDT is a January intraday print. WTI: Yahoo CL=F $101.55 against TE 102.31/102.18 on one page; Yahoo used. OAT and Bund levels: Reuters/Bloomberg 4.976/3.357 against TE 4.91/3.374, giving spread estimates of ≈161bp and ≈154bp; neither is the mark. Brazil: USD/BRL +8.8% (TE) against a ≈12% fall in the real (Al Jazeera), and the Ibovespa −14.3% to −16% across reports; ranges shown. USD/JPY: TE 157.40 used; Investing's page was stale at 23 October. Meta's raise: $35bn plus up to $60bn (AP) against $95bn total (TheStreet); AP used. US durable goods consensus: +1.5% (TE) against +1.8% (FF); both shown. RBA November: 53% (RateWatch, Friday) to 61% (ABC citing rba.isaacgross.net, Monday); range shown.
Single-source and unverified items
Anthropic S-1 revenue figure and "ANT" ticker (media reports) · Nikkei close (TE text; official archive not updated) · all other Asian closes (TE, CFD-based) · European closes (CFD-based) · NYT report on Trump's strike leaning · CNN 96-hour readiness (via TheStreet) · IRGC Hormuz "closed" declaration (Tasnim via houseofsaud) · Houthi East–West pipeline claims · Al-Faw vessel fire (UKMTO via Newsquawk) · East–West flow of 5.8mb/d (TE) · BoE 98% (Substack) · options-implied earnings moves (earnings-watcher) · Kettner call (headline only) · ABC's 61% RBA figure · Cotality clearance detail (via ABC) · NAB's hold call (inferred) · France social-security vote date.
Not obtained
AP tabulation 26 Oct · official par curve 26 Oct · settled Fed Rate Monitor · OAT–Bund dedicated 26 Oct row · FRED 26 Oct · Brent official ICE settles 26 Oct · Westmetall 26 Oct · SPI overnight · TOPIX · HS Tech · SMI · Canada 10y Monday · VIX3M · CoinShares weekly · Farside ETH flows (stale cache) · Coinalyze derivatives · ANZ-Roy Morgan 27 Oct · RBNZ OIS print · ASX IB futures.
Wednesday's first verification targets
(1) The 26 October OAT–Bund dedicated row — decides V025's upgrade. (2) AP tabulation and official par curve for 26 October (restate US closes and yields if they differ). (3) Brent December and January official settles for 26–27 October (V024, now on January). (4) FRED 26 October (V017). (5) RBA 4pm 27 October (V023). (6) ASX 200 27 October close (V006). (7) DAX Friday close on Xetra.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- Yahoo Finance — Monday live/close · AP via LancasterOnline — midday · TheStreet — 26 Oct · MarketScreener — Anthropic filing · SPY · QQQ · IWM · Investing — VIX
- US Treasury — par yield curve · TE — US yields · Newsquawk — 2-year auction · RTT — 2-year auction · TE — US calendar · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · PMPicks — Fed tracker · Bond Buyer — FOMC preview · Newsquawk — week in focus · DeFiRate — midterms · CREFC — funding to 11 Dec
- CFTC — TFF · BofA Flow Show via Finvaulta · BofA credit flows · BofA technicals · BofA FX · ICI MMF · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · SKEW · Hindenburg · breadth · SpotGamma · FactSet — 23 Oct · Lance Roberts — levels · earnings-watcher — implied moves · investingLive — FMS · Bloomberg — Kettner (headline)
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA RateWatch · RateProbability — RBA · TE — DXY · EUR · JPY · AUD · BRL · investingLive — PBoC fix · BoJ — schedule · investingLive — BoJ preview · investingLive — BoC · Econostream · interest.co.nz — RBNZ · TE — policy rates
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · BNN Bloomberg — French bonds · TE — OAT · Bund · BTP · Gilt · JGB
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- Market Index — evening wrap, 26 Oct · ABC — markets live, 26 Oct · TE — ASX · TE — ACGB · RBA — Jones · RBA — Hunter · Savings.com.au — CPI previews · Westpac IQ — CPI preview · Roy Morgan · TE — Nikkei · China · Hang Seng · KOSPI · India · ING — Asia week ahead
Europe and geopolitics
- TE — Europe · DAX · Investing — Stoxx 600 · ifo · ForexFactory · TE calendar · UK Budget tracker · City AM · StockTitan — earnings
- Al Jazeera — Tehran talks · Al Jazeera — Brazil · Al Jazeera — real · Al Jazeera — Israel election · ARY — Trump · Lloyd's List — Hormuz · Windward · Reuters via GV Wire — oil