Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Friday morning, and what the week decides.

Oil is the week's first problem: Brent December settled $116.72 on Friday, its highest since 2022, and the weekend added a Houthi barrage on Saudi Arabia and a president who said a strike on Iran might come "maybe tomorrow". Brent rose $3.55 (+3.14%) on Friday and 6.2% on the week from $109.86; WTI December settled $103.27 (+3.82%) (Trading Economics, OilPrice, FinanceFeeds; verified across three sources). Thursday's settle is $113.17, not the ≈$112.37 No. 034 carried (§13). Over the weekend the Houthis claimed strikes on Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and East–West pipeline pumping stations (Saudi Arabia has confirmed no damage); the coalition intercepted 10 ballistic missiles fired at the south, a cruise missile at Khamis Mushait and a missile and drone over Riyadh, and King Khalid airport reopened on Sunday (Gulf News, Al Jazeera via FinanceFeeds). Trump said on Saturday "we're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow", then on Sunday "there will not be a strike today". Futures reopen at 09:00 AEDT with no indicative price at filing. The East–West pipeline to Yanbu is Saudi Arabia's main export route while Hormuz is constrained, which is why the Yanbu claims matter more than the intercepts. V024's residual call is deeper in the money; its re-own band sits about $27–30 below.
Five central banks and the US mega-caps report in four days, and the Fed is the one priced to do nothing. The settled Fed Rate Monitor read (stamped 00:35 ET Saturday) has 28 October at 89.7% hold and 10.3% hike, and at least one hike by 9 December at ≈75% (67.6% one, 7.5% two). The Bank of Canada is ≈80% priced to hike on Wednesday ET (Polymarket 81.6%), the RBNZ ≈75–80% at 12:00 AEDT Wednesday, while the ECB (Thursday) and BoJ (Friday) are expected to hold. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on FOMC day, Amazon and Intel on Thursday, with Q3 GDP and September PCE (headline consensus 3.6% y/y) that morning. Friday's US flash PMI put output prices at 59.8, the highest since August 2022 (Newsquawk), and UMich's final October read was 48.0 with 1-year inflation expectations 4.7%. A hawkish hold is the consensus; the data the Committee will see first is inflationary.
Moody's affirmed France at Aa3 with a negative outlook after the Paris close on Friday, against expectations of a cut, after the dedicated OAT–Bund series printed a 174.6bp record on Thursday. The series then eased to 171.8bp on Friday (OAT 5.05%, Bund 3.33%; verified), +34.4bp on the week. Moody's called it "not a formal rating action" and conditioned the hold on a deficit-cutting budget and consolidation after the 2027 election (Boursorama, Seoul Economic Daily; corroborated). Saturday's protests drew 410,000 by the Interior Ministry's count with 1,314 arrests, half the previous week (AFP via Bernama). V025's pre-committed upgrade is half met: the 23 October row is above 150bp, and the decider is the 26 October row, the first after Moody's, which posts with a one-session lag. Expect relief in OATs this morning; the upgrade fires only if that relief stops above 150bp.
US equities fell for a second week and credit kept widening underneath: HY OAS jumped 13bp to 340bp on 22 October and CCC made a new series high at 1,340bp. The AP tabulation has the S&P 500 at 7,623.68 (−0.52%, −0.5% on the week), the Dow 52,215.16 (−1.23%, AmEx −3.7% on job cuts, banks −1.5%), the Nasdaq 25,955.34 (−0.21%) and the Russell 2,775.90 (−0.29%) (verified; ETFs agree). Energy led (+2.6%), staples lagged (−1.9%). FRED's 22 October rows: IG 89bp, HY 340bp, CCC 1,340bp (verified). The Fear & Greed replica closed at 11, extreme fear, with all eight components on the fear side. V017 (underweight HY/CCC, High) is now 35bp from its mirror and further from its exit; V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) is ≈0.8% in favour.
Home market: Wednesday 28 October now carries the RBA's November decision in all but name, with Senate Estimates at 11:15, Q3 CPI at 11:30 and the RBNZ at 12:00. Pricing for a 3 November hike sits at ≈49–56% (RBA RateWatch 49% for 25bp and 53% for any hike at 15:57 Friday; RateProbability 56.4% at 08:00 Saturday). TE's consensus has Q3 headline at 1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y; its trimmed-mean forecast is 0.9% q/q against the RBA's 0.8%. The ASX 200 closed flat at 8,795.2 (verified to the decimal) with materials −3.85%; the October flash services PMI fell to 47.8, contraction. AUD/NZD printed 1.2313 on the RBA table, 63 pips above V023's stop, the third daily fall. New Zealand and Taiwan are closed today.
Positioning into the week: leveraged funds covered S&P shorts and front-end Treasury shorts but added 95,000 ultra-bond shorts; retail is bearish; the FMS crowd is still long semis. CFTC as of 20 October: leveraged-fund net short across six Treasury contracts −6.80m (+87k), ultra bond −804,808 (−89k); e-mini S&P −371,245 (+37k covered); AUD +52,497 in the TFF series against −127,292 in the legacy non-commercial cut (opposite signs, both real) (verified; nets derived). AAII bears 45.8%, the second weekly rise. The ultra-bond addition is consistent with long-end supply or steepener positioning; the data cannot say which. Weekend: Brazil's runoff count was under way at filing, Israel votes Tuesday, and China's Fifth Plenum runs to Thursday.

Friday and weekend recap

Friday 23 October across Asia, Europe and New York; then a weekend of Gulf missiles, a French rating reprieve and calmer streets in Paris.

Asia-Pacific Friday: a pause after Thursday's rout

Australia. The ASX 200 closed at 8,795.2 (+2.0, +0.02%), on its session high and −0.13% on the week (Market Index evening wrap; TE 8,795.20; verified). Underneath, money rotated hard: consumer discretionary +2.58%, financials +2.21% (CBA +4.3%, all four majors +0.9–4.4%), and materials −3.85% with the gold sub-index −5.6% after bullion's Thursday fall; BHP −3.6% on lower copper output, Goodman −3.6% on scrutiny of grid capacity for data centres. Zip fell 29.5%, Tyro rose 33.4%. Breadth was negative (ASX 200: 84 up, 109 down; ABC). The October flash PMIs had manufacturing 49.7 and services 47.8, down from 51.9 and into contraction (Market Index, single source). ACGB yields fell to seven-week lows: 2-year 4.90%, 3-year 4.85%, 10-year 5.18% (TE; ABC had the 10-year 5.164% at 13:14). The RBA table: AUD/USD 0.7006, AUD/NZD 1.2313.

Japan. The Nikkei closed 62,693.16 (−214.68, −0.34%) after falling as much as 2.3% intraday, about −4.1% on the week (Nikkei Indexes, verified). That implies Thursday closed at 62,907.84, so No. 034's ≈62,942 was the wrong TE figure (§13). Murata and TDK fell 5.7%, Hitachi 4.4%. September national CPI printed core 2.1% y/y, as expected and up from 1.7%, the first print above 2% in nine months; headline 2.1%, core-core 2.4% (TE, verified single source). The 10-year JGB fell 8.6bp to ≈2.80%.

China, Hong Kong, Korea, India. The Hang Seng rebounded 0.69% to ≈23,093 (Xiaomi +4.2%) and Shanghai rose 0.89% to ≈3,690.5 on reported national-team ETF buying of about CNY60bn (TE, single source each). The KOSPI rose 0.30% to ≈5,550 (SK hynix +4.4%). Taiwan was closed. The Sensex fell 0.17% to ≈73,124, its fourth straight fall. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7180 against a 6.6758 estimate, again ≈420 pips weak of the model (investingLive).

Europe Friday: PMIs split, France contracts

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.31% to 635.77, −1.39% on the week, its steepest weekly fall since early September (Investing/Reuters, Cappnotes; corroborated). Kering fell 16.6% on Gucci, Volvo Cars 24% to a record low, Safran ≈10%; L'Oréal rose 5.6%. DAX 25,152.30 (−0.86%), CAC 40 7,782.83 (−0.36%), FTSE 100 10,690.36 (−0.32%), FTSE MIB 48,558.85 (+0.36%) (corroborated; a 25,181.65 DAX print is unresolved). Flash PMIs diverged: euro-area composite 51.9 against 52.7 expected, a four-month low; France 48.4 composite with all three readings in contraction; Germany manufacturing 54.2, a beat; UK composite 53.1 against 51.8, the strongest since February (Newsquawk, single source). UK September retail sales fell 0.4% m/m against −0.1%. The CBR held at 14% and raised its 2027 key-rate path by 2pp (Moscow Times).

New York Friday: oil up, banks down

The AP tabulation: S&P 500 7,623.68 (−39.75, −0.5%), Dow 52,215.16 (−652.82, −1.2%), Nasdaq 25,955.34 (−53.52, −0.2%), Russell 2000 2,775.90 (−8.13, −0.3%); on the week −0.5%, +0.4%, −0.7% and +2.0% (verified; settled SPY −0.52%, DIA −1.24%, QQQ −0.01%, IWM −0.33% agree). Nearly three in four S&P members fell. AP attributed the session to oil and to concern about debt-funded AI capex at high rates. Sectors (Cappnotes, secondary): energy +2.6%, tech +0.5%, discretionary −1.7%, communication services −1.8%, staples −1.9%. Movers: AmEx −3.7% on its first large job cuts in a decade, JPMorgan and Citi −1.5%, Caterpillar −2.4%; ConocoPhillips +3.6%, Chevron +2.9%; Micron +2.5%, CrowdStrike +8.3%. Earnings: SLB +7.1% on a beat, Robert Half +21.7%; LKQ −22.5% after withdrawing guidance, Infosys −6.6% on a guidance cut, Deckers −4.9% on a revenue miss. The VIX closed 19.45 (+2.2%), down about half a point on the week (Investing, FRED to 22 Oct).

Rates and data. The official par curve rose 4bp across the board on Friday to 2-year 4.69%, 5-year 4.82%, 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.33%, after Thursday's 4.65 / 4.78 / 4.96 / 5.29 (Treasury, verified). On the week that is a bull flattener: −5, −7, −9 and −10bp. Par 5s30s is 51bp, against the 47bp at which V030 closed on 21 October; we do not reopen it (§08). S&P Global's flash composite slipped to 57.6 from 58.4, with manufacturing at a 53-month high of 56.0 and Williamson citing the "sharpest increase in selling prices for over four years" (Kitco, Newsquawk). UMich final October sentiment was 48.0 (prelim 46.3), a five-month low, with 1-year inflation expectations 4.7% and 5-year 3.5%.

Weekend 24–25 October

Gulf and Iran. On Friday envoy Barrack said a weekend strike was "absolutely" possible; on Saturday Trump said "we're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow" while calling a "big, beautiful agreement" still possible; on Sunday he said "there will not be a strike today" and asked on Fox, "do I finish it off… or do I make a deal?" (Times Kuwait, Gulf News, The National). Iran says it would resume Pakistan-brokered talks if the US lifts its naval blockade and has threatened Gulf undersea cables if struck. A third US carrier group is heading to the region (CBS). The Houthis fired on Riyadh on Saturday, hit Aden airport in Yemen for the fourth time this month, and claimed hits on Yanbu and Rabigh; on Sunday the coalition intercepted 10 ballistic missiles toward southern Saudi Arabia and a cruise missile at Khamis Mushait, with debris injuring two (Al Jazeera, Gulf News). Saudi Arabia has not confirmed damage at Yanbu or Rabigh. Hormuz: CENTCOM's commander said the lanes are clear of mines; the IRGC says traffic is "completely stopped" and claims two tankers hit mines; Kpler put crude flows last week at about 8.5mb/d, down from more than 20mb/d the week before (via Oil Monitor, single source). These claims are not reconciled; vessel counts remain the arbiter. Israel votes on Tuesday, and Netanyahu warned of attempts to disrupt it.

France. Moody's held Aa3, negative, against expectations of a cut to A1; Lescure said the decision "recognises the soundness of our economy" and PM Lecornu restated the 5% deficit goal. S&P reviews on 27 November. The Assembly rejected the revenue half of the social-security budget, which goes to the Senate; a vote on the social-security text is reported for Tuesday 27 October (BabyPips, single source). Saturday's marches were the calmest in three weeks: looted businesses fell to 24 from 1,522.

Elsewhere. Russia–Ukraine: Russia launched 126 drones overnight into Saturday and 153 into Sunday; Ukraine struck a Siberian petrochemical plant and Tolyatti factories (Kyiv Independent). A humanitarian ceasefire at Oleshky is reported to start 29 October (Newsquawk) or already agreed (Kyiv Independent); timing unresolved. US–China: negotiators are working on investment deals before Trump–Xi at APEC in Shenzhen in November (SCMP); China's Fifth Plenum opens today. Brazil: the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff closed at about 07:00 AEDT; the count was not available at filing (first round 47.0% to 45.2% for Bolsonaro; USD/BRL fell 1.4% on Friday to 4.974). Crypto: bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on Saturday on the Saudi evacuation news (CoinDesk) and was ≈$80,580 at 06:00 AEDT.

Monday open

No indicative opens existed at filing: CME and ICE reopen at 09:00 AEDT and FX liquidity builds from about 07:00. The last SPI reading found is 8,803 at 06:48 Friday (ABC). With the S&P down 0.5%, Brent up 3% and gold down 0.7% on Friday, our inference is a soft ASX open led by gold miners, with energy supported. The first marks to watch are Brent's reopening against $116.72 and the OAT open in Europe tonight.

Market dashboard

Friday 23 October closes unless marked; 1d is Friday's session and 1w is against Friday 16 October's close.

Week to Friday 23 October: change from the 16 October close

Five sessions. "≈" marks a derived or single-source level (§13). US indices from AP's weekly figures; FX pairs shown as the pair moved (New York basis, TE); Henry Hub (−15.3%) is omitted to keep one readable scale. Hover a bar for the exact value.

UpDown

Equities	Close	1d	1w	Note
S&P 500	7,623.68	−0.52%	−0.47%	Verified (AP tabulation; SPY −0.52%). Second weekly loss; range 7,612–7,660. Thursday restated to 7,663.43
Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp.	52,215.16 · 25,955.34	−1.23% · −0.21%	+0.41% · −0.71%	Verified (AP; DIA −1.24%, QQQ −0.01%). AmEx, banks, Caterpillar weighed on the Dow
Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000	≈28,960 · 2,775.90	≈0.0% · −0.29%	≈−0.8% · +2.0%	NDX derived (QQQ −0.01% on ≈28,975 gives ≈28,972; Investing 28,957.53). Russell verified (AP); Thursday restated to 2,784.03
VIX · VIX3M	19.45 · 20.48	+2.2%	≈−0.5pt	Investing; FRED to 22 Oct (19.03). VIX/VIX3M 0.95; front futures inverted Nov 19.61 / Dec 19.50 (thetrading.tools)
Stoxx 600 · DAX	635.77 · 25,152.30	−0.31% · −0.86%	−1.39% · ≈−1.8%	Corroborated (Reuters/Investing, Cappnotes). DAX alt print 25,181.65 unresolved
CAC 40 · FTSE 100	7,782.83 · 10,690.36	−0.36% · −0.32%	−2.19% · −1.76%	Corroborated. Kering −16.6%, Safran ≈−10%
FTSE MIB · IBEX 35	48,558.85 · ≈18,990	+0.36% · ≈+0.4%	≈−2.6% · ≈−1.7%	MIB corroborated; IBEX Newsquawk rounded. Weekly bases single source
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	62,693.16 · —	−0.34% · —	≈−4.1% · —	Verified (Nikkei Indexes). Intraday −2.3%. Nikkei VI 38.25. TOPIX not obtained
Shanghai · CSI 300	≈3,690.5 · ≈4,105	≈+0.89% · ?	≈−0.7% · —	TE, single source; national-team ETF buying reported. CSI 300 change field stale
Hang Seng	≈23,093	+0.69%	≈−4.5%	TE; ties exactly to Thursday's 22,934.68. HS Tech not obtained
KOSPI · TAIEX	≈5,550.30 · closed	+0.30% · —	≈−2.1% · —	KOSPI TE (ties to 5,533.77). Taiwan closed Fri 23 and Mon 26 Oct; last 46,041.43 (22 Oct)
Sensex · Nifty 50	≈73,124 · ≈22,600	−0.17% · −0.39%	≈−2.1% · —	TE, unverified; Nifty's round figure is suspect
S&P/ASX 200	8,795.2	+0.02%	−0.13%	Verified (Market Index, TE). Materials −3.85%; discretionary +2.58%. 104.8 points below V006's 8,900 line. SPI open not available
NZX 50	≈13,733.93	−0.09%	≈−0.1%	TE CFD, single source. Closed today (Labour Day)

Rates & credit	Level	1d	1w	Note
UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 23 Oct	4.69 · 4.82 · 5.00 · 5.33%	+4 · +4 · +4 · +4bp	−5 · −7 · −9 · −10bp	Verified (Treasury par; 22 Oct 4.65 · 4.78 · 4.96 · 5.29; 16 Oct 4.74 · 4.89 · 5.09 · 5.43). Vendor 10y 4.999%
5s30s · 2s10s (par)	51 · 31bp	0 · 0bp	−3 · −4bp	Derived from par. 51bp on both 22 and 23 Oct; V030 closed at 47bp on 21 Oct and is not reopened
Gilt 10y · 30y	5.37 · ≈5.76%	+3.5bp · ?	−1bp · —	TE; 30y Investing (its change field contradicts its prior close)
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	3.34 · 5.04 · 4.59%	+0.7 · +3.9 · +0.9bp	−7 · +25 · +11bp	TE. OAT trades ≈44bp over BTP. OAT touched 5.14% intraday on 22 Oct, highest since 2002
OAT–Bund (dedicated series)	171.8bp (23 Oct)	−2.8bp	+34.4bp	Verified (OAT 5.05 / Bund 3.33). 22 Oct 174.6bp, the one-year high; 20 Oct 150.8, 21 Oct 157.5. Pre-Moody's. V025's mark
JGB 10y · 30y	2.80 · ≈3.83%	−8.6bp · ?	−14bp · —	TE; 30y fields inconsistent across sources
ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y	4.90 · 4.85 · 5.18%	−5.7 · −7.0 · −8.3bp	—	TE close, corroborated at the 10y by ABC (5.164% at 13:14). Seven-week lows. 3s10s 33bp
Canada 10y	3.85%	+6bp	+2bp	TE, Investing (corroborated). BoC hike ≈80% priced
US IG · HY · CCC OAS (22 Oct)	89 · 340 · 1,340bp	+1 · +13 · +33bp	+4 · +9 · +43bp	Verified (FRED; 1w vs 16 Oct 85 · 331 · 1,297). CCC a new series high. 21 Oct 88 · 327 · 1,307. 23 Oct posts tonight US time
AI-linked credit	Oracle 5y ≈288bp · CoreWeave 5y >1,000bp	—	—	Mid-October readings (Securitas; LetsDataScience citing LSEG). Nothing dated 22–23 Oct; single sources

FX	Fri close	1d	1w	Note
DXY	101.81	+0.20%	−0.03%	TE (no stamp); Cappnotes 101.79 (corroborated)
EUR/USD · GBP/USD	1.1202 · 1.3378	−0.12% · −0.17%	−0.31% · +0.38%	TE. Moody's came after the close; EUR's Monday reaction is the first read
USD/JPY	156.87	+0.06%	−0.74% (yen up)	Corroborated (TE 156.865; Investing 156.84, range 156.08–157.16)
AUD/USD	0.7006 (RBA) · 0.7032 (NY)	−0.17% (RBA)	+1.24% (NY, TE)	RBA 4pm verified. NY close TE; bases not blended
AUD/NZD · NZD/USD	1.2313 (RBA) · 0.5698	−0.19% (RBA) · +0.28%	≈+0.4% (NY)	RBA 4pm verified: third straight fall (1.2357 → 1.2336 → 1.2313). NY cross ≈1.2341 (derived). 63 pips above V023's stop
USD/CAD · USD/CHF	1.4004 · 0.8250	−0.04% · +0.56%	−0.97% · +0.12%	TE. CAD firm on BoC hike pricing
USD/CNY · fix	6.6695 · 6.7180	−0.05%	−0.25%	Fix vs estimate 6.6758 (investingLive, single source)
USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN	95.20 · 1,323.7 · 18.67	+0.53 · −0.13 · −0.27%	+0.24 · −0.82 · +0.94%	TE, single source. USD/BRL 4.974 (−1.40%) before the runoff

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	1w	Note
Brent DECEMBER	$116.72	+3.14%	+6.24%	Verified (TE, OilPrice, FinanceFeeds). 22 Oct $113.17 (corrected, §13); 16 Oct $109.86. Highest settle since 2022; above the $114.44 May high. Contract expires 30 Oct
WTI DECEMBER	$103.27	+3.82%	≈+2 to +4%	Verified (TE, OilPrice, Buckhead). Weekly change disputed across the Nov–Dec roll. Brent–WTI ≈$13.45
Henry Hub · TTF	$2.640 · €93.86	−5.6% · +4.2%	−15.3% · +7.2%	HH corroborated; TTF single source
Gold (spot)	$3,994.90	−0.71%	≈−4.1%	Kitco bid, Friday's last quote; TE $3,993.96 (corroborated). First close below $4,000 in this run
Silver · Platinum	$53.88 · $1,562.40	−1.3% · −0.9%	−5.5% · −4.3%	TE, single source
Copper LME cash · COMEX	$14,415/t · $6.476/lb	+1.4% · +1.8%	−1.2% · −0.8%	Westmetall (verified). LME stocks 273,750t, +21% on the week
Iron ore 62% · aluminium	$90.83 · $3,047	+0.1% · +1.3%	−0.1% · +1.3%	TE, single source
Lithium carbonate · uranium	CNY97,000 · $90.10	−2.4% · +0.1%	−5.0% · 0.0%	TE, single source
Bitcoin	≈$80,580	24h +0.8%	7d +0.3%	CoinGecko ≈05:30–06:30 AEDT; CoinDesk $80,827 (Sat 13:04 AEDT). Dipped below $80k Saturday
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,353 · $101.7 · $1.30 · $742	+1.7 · +1.5 · +2.3 · +2.6%	+0.3 · +0.1 · +2.7 · +4.4%	CoinGecko, single source. Total cap $2.78tn; BTC dominance 58.4%
Spot ETF flows	BTC −$635.6m (22 Oct) · −$137.9m (23 Oct)	ETH −$110.6m · +$4.4m	BTC +$301.2m · ETH −$220.7m	Farside (verified daily; weekly sums derived). Three strong days, then two outflow days

Conventions: 1d is Friday 23 October; 1w is against Friday 16 October's close. US cash closes are AP's. Treasury rows are the official par curve; FRED OAS rows carry their own dates. FX is the New York close (TE, no timestamp) unless marked RBA 4pm, and the two bases are never blended. Oil is front-month December. "≈" marks a derived or single-source value, "—" means not obtained and "?" a change not shown because the source contradicts itself; §13 says which.

What is driving markets

Running themes carried from No. 034. Oil moves to the top; France gets its reprieve; the Fed theme becomes a decision-week theme.

1. Oil: the Gulf war has reached Saudi Arabia's export bypass

Brent December gained $6.86 on the week to $116.72, the third weekly rise and the highest settle since 2022; it was below $97 at the start of October (AP). The path matters: $109.55, $108.79, $108.82, $113.17, $116.72 from Monday to Friday (Investing table). The jump came in two steps that both concern Saudi infrastructure, Thursday's drone strike at Shaybah (two killed, operations unaffected) and Friday's ordered departure of US non-emergency staff, followed by weekend claims against Yanbu, Rabigh and East–West pumping stations. With Hormuz constrained since July, the East–West pipeline to Yanbu is the kingdom's main export outlet, so a confirmed hit there would remove the route that has kept Saudi barrels moving. Offsets exist: the US authorised a 400,000-barrel SPR exchange, Germany's stockholding agency tendered reserves, and OPEC+'s seven core producers meet on 1 November (single source). Kalshi priced WTI at or above $115 by 31 December at 43.1% on Sunday (DeFiRate).

So whatBrent's reopening at 09:00 AEDT is the first price of the week. V024's residual call spread benefits; its re-own band ($86.53–89.53 on two December settles) is about $27–30 below and the December contract expires on 30 October, so the band must be restated on the January contract before Thursday's edition using a verified December–January spread. Energy is the only ASX sector with the oil price behind it; it fell 0.4% on Friday.

2. France: a reprieve from Moody's, not a resolution

The dedicated OAT–Bund series ran 137.4bp, 142.3, 150.8, 157.5, 174.6 and 171.8bp from 16 to 23 October, a 34bp week and a one-year high on Thursday, with the OAT touching 5.14% intraday, its highest since 2002 (BigGo). Moody's then held Aa3 with a negative outlook, calling the review "not a formal rating action", and said a downgrade would follow if pension reform were suspended or institutions' capacity to contain debt costs weakened further (Seoul Economic Daily). The economy is not helping: the October flash composite PMI fell to 48.4 with all three French readings in contraction (Newsquawk). France now yields about 44bp more than Italy. The next tests are the social-security vote reported for Tuesday, the ECB on Thursday, where Newsquawk expects questions on the TPI, and S&P on 27 November.

So whatV025 (OAT–Bund widener, Med) marks 171.8bp, +78bp from entry. The upgrade to High was pre-committed in No. 033 to two consecutive dedicated prints at or above 150bp that include the first print after Moody's: the 23 October row qualifies, and the 26 October row decides. If the relief rally takes that print below 150bp, the view stays Med; below 140bp on two prints would be the mirror. The 80bp close line is about 92bp away.

3. The Fed meets with the front end calm and the inflation data turning

The week took the US 10-year par yield from 5.09% to 5.00% and the 30-year from 5.43% to 5.33%, while October hike pricing fell from 28.7% to about 10% (Investing.com settled read, 10.3%; CME about 10%; Kalshi 7.5–9%). December holds at ≈75% for at least one hike, so the market expects a hawkish hold on Wednesday ET. The inflation side of the data is not cooperating: the flash PMI's output prices index is the highest since August 2022, UMich's 1-year expectations are 4.7%, and Thursday's September PCE is expected at 3.6% y/y (AP's preview says 3.7%). Hammack, Logan and Kashkari are named by Newsquawk as possible hawkish dissents. Reuters' poll has 94 of 100 economists expecting a hold.

So whatA hold with three hawkish dissents and a December signal is the base case and is priced. The asymmetric outcome is a statement that drops the tightening bias after an oil shock that the Committee may read as a growth risk; that would steepen the curve from the front end, the opposite of V030's thesis, which is closed. Microsoft and Alphabet report two hours after the statement.

4. AI and credit: the equity market paused, the credit market did not

The Nasdaq-100 was unchanged on Friday (QQQ −0.01%) after Thursday's 2.8% fall, and the SOX rose 0.4% to 10,779 (TradingKey). Credit kept moving: HY OAS rose 13bp to 340bp on 22 October and CCC 33bp to a 1,340bp series high, while IG widened only 1bp to 89bp (FRED). A CNBC headline on 23 October reported pressure on neoclouds and Solidigm pulling its IPO (body not retrieved). Oracle's 5-year CDS hit a record 288bp on 15 October and CoreWeave's traded above 1,000bp (mid-October; single sources). BofA's European strategists (Raedler, 23 October) note cyclicals have lagged defensives by about 11% since 1 October, the sharpest such move since March 2020, and put hyperscaler forward capex near $1tn against ROIC falling from 21% to 15.5%. FactSet has Q3 S&P earnings growth at 29.5% with 83% beating, but the aggregate surprise is only 2.1% against a 7.5% five-year average.

So whatV017 (underweight HY/CCC, High) is working: HY is 35bp above its 305bp mirror and CCC 290bp above the 1,050bp exit. V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) is ≈0.8% in favour. The read across is that AI financing stress is showing first in low-quality credit, which is where the book is positioned; Wednesday and Thursday's results decide whether it reaches the mega-cap equity line.

5. Australia: one morning decides November

No new RBA communication emerged over the weekend that we could verify (Hunter's pre-recorded 60 Minutes interview aired Sunday; content not captured). Pricing for 3 November sits around 49–56%, from 45–64% a week ago. On Wednesday the Governor and four colleagues appear at Senate Estimates at 11:15, the ABS publishes Q3 and September CPI at 11:30, and the RBNZ decides at 12:00. TE's consensus is 1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/y for the Q3 headline and 0.7% m/m and 4.2% y/y for September; its trimmed-mean forecast is 0.9% q/q against the RBA's 0.8%, and Betashares' Bassanese says 1.0% would be "materially worse" (ABC). Friday's flash services PMI fell to 47.8, the first contraction reading in this run, which is the dovish counterweight.

So whatV023 (long AUD/NZD) is 63 pips above its stop after three daily falls and needs the RBNZ to underwhelm or Australian core inflation to surprise up. V006 (ASX underweight) is +2.3% in favour with the index 105 points below its 8,900 close line. Both views resolve on Wednesday's numbers rather than on anything said before them.

Central bank watch

Five decisions in four days. Where each bank stands, what is priced, and the next date in Sydney time.

Fed funds pricing by meeting, settled read after Friday 23 October

Current target range 3.75–4.00%. Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor stamped "Oct 24, 2026 12:35AM EDT", the settled post-close read. Decision 05:00 AEDT Thu 29 Oct (meeting 27–28 Oct ET). Later meetings not charted: the March 2027 row's published buckets sum to 80.8% and the remainder was not obtained.

3.75–4.00% (hold)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	+25bp 16 Sep, 12–0	Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · presser 05:30 · blackout	28 Oct: hold 89.7% / hike 10.3% (Investing, settled). ≥1 hike by 9 Dec ≈75% (67.6% + 7.5%). CME ≈90/10; Kalshi hold 91–92.5%; Polymarket 94.5%	Hawkish hold
RBA	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · presser 15:30	≈49–56%: RBA RateWatch 49% (25bp) / 53% (any) at 15:57 Fri; RateProbability 56.4%, implied 4.74%, peak ≈4.88% mid-2027 (08:00 Sat). TE 64% is stale	Tightening bias; Nov live
RBNZ	2.75%	+25bp Sep	Wed 28 Oct 12:00	+25bp to 3.00% ≈75–80% (Newsquawk); ANZ, BNZ, ASB call a hike, Westpac a hold. No fresh OIS mark	Removing stimulus
BoC	2.25%	Holds in 2026	Thu 29 Oct 00:45 + MPR	+25bp ≈80% (Newsquawk; Polymarket 81.6%, 25 Oct). RBC now calls a hike. 5y inflation expectations 3.91%	Hike likely
ECB	DFR 2.50%	+25bp 10 Sep	Fri 30 Oct 00:15 · presser 00:45	Hold >90%; December hike ≈66% (TE); ≈75bp over the cycle. Time per ForexTradingCommunity (an alternative 23:45 AEDT is listed elsewhere)	Hold; TPI questions
BoJ	1.25%	+25bp 18 Sep, 7–2	Fri 30 Oct ≈13:00–14:00 + Outlook Report (boj.or.jp: 29–30 Oct)	Hold expected; December hike ≈80%. Core CPI 2.1% (Sep), core-core 2.4%	Hold, then December
BoE	3.75%	Held 17 Sep, 6–3	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	November hike fully priced (TE, 22 Oct); Budget Wed 28 Oct	Hawkish
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Held 20 Oct	LPR Fri 20 Nov	Fix 6.7180 vs estimate 6.6758 (23 Oct); CNY258bn overnight reverse repo	Leaning against CNY
BoK · BI	3.00% · 5.75%	BoK held 22 Oct · BI held 21 Oct	BI 18 Nov · BoK 26 Nov	BoK November hike the Reuters-poll median	Hold, Nov live
CBR · CBRT	14.00% · 36.00%	CBR held 23 Oct; 2027 path raised 2pp · CBRT −100bp 22 Oct	CBR 18 Dec · CBRT minutes 30 Oct	CBR inflation forecast 7.1–7.6% for 2026	Mixed
Riksbank · Norges · Banxico · RBI · SNB	1.75 · 4.50 · 6.50 · 5.50 · 0.00%	Norges +25bp 24 Sep; RBI +25bp 7 Oct	Riksbank 4 Nov · Norges, Banxico 5 Nov · RBI 4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec	Not refreshed (TE rates, single source)	Mixed

Fed. The settled read is the first post-close Fed pricing this run has quoted since the protocol was written: 28 October 89.7% hold / 10.3% +25bp; 9 December 24.9% / 67.6% / 7.5% (+50bp); March 2027 6.9% / 31.7% / 42.2% modal at 4.25–4.50%, with the remaining 19.2% not itemised on the page. The Committee is in blackout; the statement is at 14:00 ET Wednesday and Chair Warsh's press conference at 14:30 (05:00 and 05:30 AEDT Thursday). The October FMS had 76% expecting no hike at this meeting, which the market now matches.

RBNZ and BoC on the same day. The RBNZ's September statement implied an October pause and a December hike; Q3 CPI at 3.7% y/y and 0.7% q/q, above the 1–3% band, and firmer core measures moved pricing to a hike. The Bank of Canada faces softer September CPI (3.1% against 3.2%) but a jump in five-year inflation expectations to 3.91% from 3.39%, and US Section 338 tariff relief on nine Canadian product categories takes effect on 30 October. Two hikes priced at ≈75–80% each in a single Sydney day will move AUD crosses before the RBA does.

ECB and BoJ. The ECB is expected to hold with September HICP at 3.7%; Danske expects a final December hike to 2.75% and sees 75bp of priced tightening as too much. Newsquawk expects press-conference questions on France and the TPI and notes speculation about Lagarde's departure. The BoJ decision lands about midday Tokyo on Friday with the Outlook Report; the risk is the language moving from inflation "approaching" to "having reached" the target. Tokyo CPI is published the same morning.

Regional briefs

United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan, China and Hong Kong, emerging markets.

United States

Oil up, banks down, a second weekly loss. The S&P fell 0.52% to 7,623.68 and 0.5% on the week; the Dow lost 653 points on AmEx's job cuts and the banks, yet rose 0.4% on the week; the Russell gained 2.0% on the week as yields fell. Q3 blended EPS growth is 29.5% with 24% reported and a forward P/E of 18.7 (FactSet, 23 Oct). This week: durable goods Tuesday, Conference Board confidence (80.5 expected), the FOMC, Microsoft and Alphabet Wednesday ET, Q3 GDP (3.0–3.2% SAAR expected; GDPNow 3.5%), PCE and Amazon/Intel Thursday ET. The government is funded to 11 December; Kalshi had a shutdown by 12 December at 33%. Midterms 3 November: Kalshi priced a Democratic sweep at 64% on Sunday (DeFiRate).

Euro area

A four-month low in activity and a French reprieve. The euro-area flash composite fell to 51.9 against 52.7 expected; Germany's manufacturing beat at 54.2 while services missed; France contracted at 48.4. The Stoxx 600 lost 1.39% on the week, its worst since early September, with luxury (−3.6%) and defence (−3.8%) the weakest groups on Friday. BTPs widened 11bp on the week to 4.59% but now trade about 44bp through OATs. This week: Ifo tonight (89.8 expected), the ECB Thursday night AEDT, Q3 GDP flashes Friday (euro area 0.2% q/q expected) and the October flash HICP on 3 November (TE; not confirmed with Eurostat).

United Kingdom

Strong PMIs, weak shoppers, and a Budget on Wednesday. The flash composite rose to 53.1, the strongest since February; September retail sales fell 0.4% m/m. Gilts rose 3.5bp to 5.37% on Friday. City AM reports the Chancellor is John Healey presenting his first Budget (single source). Newsquawk expects fiscal headroom to fall from £23.6bn to about £15bn, a bank tax rise of £2–5bn, more oil-company tax and gambling duty, and the DMO to add just over £3bn of issuance tilted away from the long end; income tax, employee NI, VAT and the main corporation-tax rate are protected. The BoE's November hike is fully priced.

Japan

Core inflation back above 2% before the BoJ. September core CPI rose 2.1% as expected, core-core 2.4%. The Nikkei fell 0.34% to 62,693.16 after a 2.3% intraday drop, about −4.1% on the week, with electronics (Murata, TDK −5.7%) the weakest; the Nikkei VI rose to 38.25. The 10-year JGB fell 8.6bp to 2.80%, down 14bp on the week. USD/JPY closed 156.87, down 0.7% on the week. PM Takaichi's food-tax cuts and spending plans remain the fiscal overhang. The BoJ decides Friday with the Outlook Report; Tokyo CPI the same morning.

China & Hong Kong

Policy support into the Plenum. Shanghai rose 0.89% on Friday, reportedly on about CNY60bn of national-team ETF buying, and Shenzhen 2.79%; the Hang Seng rebounded 0.69% but lost about 4.5% on the week. The Fifth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee runs 26–29 October; investingLive expects high-level signals on domestic demand, fiscal support and local-government debt, with a communiqué around Thursday. The PBoC keeps fixing about 420 pips weak of models while CNY trades near its strongest since mid-2022. Industrial profits are due 27 October and the official PMIs on 31 October. The US–China trade truce was extended for two months on 24 September (CNBC), so it lapses in late November, around APEC.

Emerging markets

Brazil votes, Korea steadies, India sags. Brazil's runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro closed at about 07:00 AEDT; Bolsonaro led the first round 47.0% to 45.2% and Polymarket had him near 77% on 19 October; the real gained 1.4% on Friday. The KOSPI rose 0.3% after Thursday's 3.5% fall. The Sensex fell for a fourth day and the rupee is at 95.20 after the RBI's first hike since 2023. The CBR held at 14% and raised its 2027 path. The peso is 0.9% weaker on the week as the Banxico–Fed gap narrows. Israel's Knesset election is Tuesday.

Australia & New Zealand

A flat index with a sharp rotation, a services PMI in contraction, and Wednesday's 45-minute window.

The RBA before CPI

The cash rate is 4.60%. Pricing for 3 November is ≈49–56% (RBA RateWatch 49% for 25bp and 53% for any hike at 15:57 Friday; RateProbability 56.4% with an implied post-meeting rate of 4.74% and a peak near 4.88% by mid-2027, 08:00 Saturday); the ASX Rate Tracker page loaded without data. Assistant Governor Jones speaks on a panel at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit this morning (RBA calendar: 08:10; No. 034 had 08:40); Senate Estimates with Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Jones and Kent is Wednesday at 11:15, 15 minutes before CPI. The ACGB curve rallied on Friday to 2-year 4.90%, 3-year 4.85%, 10-year 5.18%, seven-week lows (TE; ABC). With the 3-year 25bp over cash, the curve prices roughly one hike over the next few meetings.

Markets: flat on the surface, rotating underneath

Equities. 8,795.2 (+0.02%), closing on the high; −0.13% on the week, the first weekly fall in four. Discretionary +2.58% and financials +2.21% against materials −3.85% (gold miners −5.6%; BHP −3.6%). Over the week NextDC fell 41.7% on Wednesday after Jemena suspended grid works for its Melbourne M3 site, lithium names entered a bear market, and Market Index notes investor sentiment net bearish for seven weeks. Technical zones: supply 8,935–8,940, demand 8,613–8,641 (Market Index ChartWatch). Currency. RBA table AUD/USD 0.7006, AUD/NZD 1.2313, TWI 64.9; New York closed AUD/USD at 0.7032. In CFTC data leveraged funds are net long AUD futures (+52,497) while legacy non-commercials are net short (−127,292).

Commodities and the China link

Iron ore was $90.83/t, flat on the week, while copper's LME inventories rose 21% to 273,750t; BHP cited lower copper output on Friday. Gold below $4,000 hit the miners hardest. Lithium carbonate fell 5.0% on the week to CNY97,000. For LNG and oil producers Brent at $116.72 is a tailwind the sector has not yet priced (energy −0.4% Friday). China's Plenum this week and the official PMIs on Saturday are the demand reads; Shanghai's national-team support is a floor for sentiment, not for steel demand.

New Zealand

Markets are closed for Labour Day. The NZX 50 ended Friday at ≈13,734 (−0.09%; TE, single source). The RBNZ decides Wednesday at 12:00 AEDT with a 25bp hike to 3.00% ≈75–80% priced after Q3 CPI of 3.7% y/y and firmer core (trimmed mean 3.0%). NZD/USD closed 0.5698 in New York, +0.8% on the week, and legacy non-commercials added to NZD shorts (−58,149, −11,148). The general election is on 7 November.

Australia & NZ — key data trail	Latest	Prior / context	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · ≈49–56% priced
CPI Q3 · Sep monthly	—	TE cons Q3 1.3% q/q, 3.9% y/y; Sep 0.7% m/m, 4.2% y/y; TE trimmed-mean forecast 0.9% q/q, 3.5% y/y	Wed 28 Oct 11:30
RBA Senate Estimates	—	Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Jones, Kent	Wed 28 Oct 11:15
Flash PMIs (Oct)	mfg 49.7 · svcs 47.8	49.6 · 51.9 (revised)	Final PMIs early November
Q3 PPI · Sep private credit	—	TE cons 1.0% q/q · 0.5% m/m	Fri 30 Oct 11:30
Auction clearance (Cotality, final)	44.1% (week to 11 Oct)	Fourth straight weekly fall	Weekend 24 Oct result not found
NZ CPI (Q3)	0.7% q/q · 3.7% y/y	Trimmed mean 3.0%	RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00
ACGB 3y · 10y	4.85 · 5.18%	−7.0 · −8.3bp on Friday	—
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm)	0.7006 · 1.2313	0.7018 · 1.2336 (22 Oct)	Daily 16:00 (no NZ holiday effect on the RBA table)

House views & tactical framework

Six open, none closed, no conviction changes. V025's upgrade is half met and waits on the first post-Moody's row; V024 needs its band rolled to January before Friday.

What moved. V025 widened to a 174.6bp record on 22 October and eased to 171.8bp on 23 October; the first leg of its pre-committed upgrade is met and the 26 October row decides it. V017 moved further in favour (HY 340bp, CCC 1,340bp). V024's call gained with Brent at $116.72. V031 marks ≈28,960, ≈0.8% in favour. V006 is flat at +2.3% in favour. V023 slipped 23 pips to 1.2313, 63 pips above its stop and two pips below its entry.

Not reopened: V030. Par 5s30s printed 51bp on 22 and 23 October, four basis points above the 47bp close. The ledger convention from No. 034 stands: a closed view is not reopened on the following sessions' favourable move, and the week's steepening came from a front-end rally, not term premium.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	Med	1–3 mo	Dedicated series 171.8bp (23 Oct; OAT 5.05, Bund 3.33); 174.6bp record on 22 Oct. ≈+78bp from a ≈94bp entry; +34.4bp on the week. Moody's held Aa3 negative after the close on 23 Oct, which argues for relief at today's open. French composite PMI 48.4	CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (≈92bp away); a credible consolidation; an explicit ECB backstop. PRE-COMMITTED UPGRADE, UNCHANGED: High if the 26 Oct dedicated row is ≥150bp (the 23 Oct leg, 171.8bp, is met). Mirror: back to Med on two consecutive prints below 140bp
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	FRED 22 Oct: IG 89bp, HY 340bp (+13bp on the day), CCC 1,340bp (new series high). IG has widened only 4bp on the week against CCC's 43bp: the stress is at the bottom of the stack, where the view sits	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (≈290bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: back to Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (35bp away)
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	+2.34% in favour: 8,795.2 against 9,005.9. Services PMI 47.8; materials −3.85% on Friday; RBA November ≈49–56%	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (1.2% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct
Nasdaq-100 (V031)	Put spread (hedge)	Low	1–2 mo	≈28,960 on 23 Oct (QQQ −0.01%; Investing 28,957.53): ≈+0.8% in favour since entry (29,187.55). HY and CCC widening; MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET, AMZN/INTC Thu ET	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (≈6.8% above the mark)
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	1.2313 on the RBA 4pm table (23 Oct, verified), −0.02% against ≈1.2315; third daily fall (1.2357 → 1.2336 → 1.2313). RBNZ ≈75–80% for Wednesday against RBA ≈49–56% for 3 Nov	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (63 pips away). Dates: AU CPI and RBNZ Wed 28 Oct
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	December $116.72 on 23 Oct and $113.17 on 22 Oct (each three sources). Weekend Houthi claims on Yanbu/Rabigh; Trump's strike timing two-way	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$27–30 below). ACTION: December expires 30 Oct; restate the band on January using a verified Dec–Jan spread before that edition. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms

Ledger. Six views open; 25 closed: 3 right, 15 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 18 decided calls have been right. No view closed and no conviction changed since Friday.

Portfolio-level read. The book is long French fiscal stress (V025), underweight low-quality US credit at High conviction (V017), underweight Australian equities and long AUD against NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024) and a Nasdaq-100 put spread (V031). Last week paid V017, V025 and V024 and cost V023 a little. This week's calendar resolves V023 and V006 on Wednesday, tests V025's upgrade on Tuesday's print, and puts V031 against the mega-cap results. The common exposure is to higher-for-longer funding costs meeting an oil shock; the book has no outright duration view into the FOMC, which we think is right with the curve driven by haven flows.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

Monday's full positioning read: the 20 October CFTC report, a fearful retail tape, and money funds still filling.

CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 20 October (released Friday 23 October; the file states "Positions as of October 20, 2026"). Longs and shorts are verified from cftc.gov; nets and weekly changes are this desk's arithmetic. TFF leveraged-fund and legacy non-commercial series are labelled and never mixed. The ultra-bond and 5-year rows came from a partly truncated fetch and are flagged for re-check.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 20 October
UST 2y · 5y · 10y	−1,285,548 · −2,117,544 · −2,107,224	+81,860 · −13,153 · +98,713	Front-end and 10y shorts trimmed into the rally
Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond	−318,477 · −162,757 · −804,808	+17,381 · −8,737 · −89,079	Ultra-bond shorts +95,313: consistent with long-end supply hedging or steepeners; the data cannot say which
Six-contract total	−6,796,358	+86,985	Raw contracts, not DV01-weighted
E-mini S&P · Nasdaq mini	−371,245 · +950	+37,481 · +12,543	Short-covering in both. Asset managers remain the structural long
JPY · EUR · GBP	−22,890 · −68,840 · +24,104	+10,783 · −839 · +13,791	Legacy non-commercial: JPY +69,878, EUR −134,524, GBP −80,420. JPY and GBP signs differ by series
AUD · NZD · CAD · MXN	+52,497 · −19,280 · −91,113 · +63,814	+1,906 · −7,661 · −3,001 · +250	Legacy: AUD −127,292 (−9,993), NZD −58,149, CAD −74,709, MXN +17,023. AUD signs opposite, both real
Gold (COMEX, legacy non-comm.) · WTI (managed money)	+199,865 · +36,187	−8,014 · −4,387	Oil length thin into a $6 Brent week; open interest −65,035
Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted
LSEG Lipper (week to 21 Oct)	US equity funds +$5.07bn · bond funds −$969m · MMF +$14.82bn	Large-cap +$8.63bn, small-cap −$4.24bn	Bond funds end a 26-week inflow streak; long government funds −$3.3bn (Reuters via SRN)
ICI money funds (week to 21 Oct)	$7,944.57bn	+$21.49bn	Institutional +$24.01bn, retail −$2.52bn (verified)
BofA Flow Show (EPFR)	23 Oct edition not obtained	Prior week: US equities +$39.1bn, cash −$53.1bn	BofA 23 Oct credit note: five weeks of inflows to long-term high grade
US spot crypto ETFs (Farside)	BTC +$301.2m (week) · ETH −$220.7m	−$635.6m and −$137.9m on 22–23 Oct	Flows turned with the risk-off. CoinShares not obtained
Surveys, volatility and breadth
AAII (week to 21 Oct)	Bulls 36.9% · neutral 17.3% · bears 45.8%	Spread −8.9	Verified. Next survey Thursday
Fear & Greed replica (23 Oct)	11 — extreme fear	19 a week ago, 49 a month ago	All eight components on the fear side; HYG/LQD 1.16% below its 20-day
VIX · VIX3M · SKEW (23 Oct)	19.45 · 20.48 · 151.8	Ratio 0.95; SKEW 86th pct (1y)	Spot curve in contango, but November VIX future (19.61) above December (19.50)
Put/call (22 Oct)	Total 0.94 · equity 0.69 · index 1.02	9-day 0.88	thetrading.tools, verified
% S&P above 200-day (23 Oct)	58.6%	55.8% on 20 Oct	historyofmarket, verified
BofA FMS (October)	Cash 3.9% · long semis 45% most crowded	Short USTs 27% second	39% name hyperscaler capex the likeliest credit-event source (secondary source)
FactSet (23 Oct)	Fwd P/E 18.7× · Q3 EPS +29.5%	83% beat EPS, 66% revenue; surprise +2.1%	Q3 net margin 14.9% from 17.0%; bottom-up target 9,314 (verified)
Sell-side (dated this week)	Oppenheimer YE 8,100 (19 Oct) · BofA Stoxx 600 YE 610 (23 Oct)	BofA: cyclicals −11% vs defensives since 1 Oct	No other dated target changes found

The week ahead

26–31 October in full, then the three weeks after. AEDT first, US Eastern alongside; AEDT = EDT + 15h until 1 November, then EST + 16h. Europe is on winter time from today (AEDT = CET + 10h).

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Monday 26 October — NZ and Taiwan closed · China Fifth Plenum opens
Mon	≈08:10 · 09:00	Sun 17:10 · 18:00	RBA Jones (AFR Super & Wealth Summit panel) · CME/ICE reopen: Brent first print		Brent $116.72	M
Mon	20:00	05:00	German Ifo business climate (Oct)	89.8	89.9	M
Tuesday 27 October — Israel's Knesset election · France social-security vote (reported)
Tue	≈09:00 · 12:30	Mon 18:00 · 21:30	OAT–Bund 26 Oct dedicated row (V025 upgrade test) · China industrial profits (Sep)		171.8bp	H
Tue	23:30	08:30	US durable goods (Sep) · ex-transport	+0.6% · +0.6%	0.0% · +0.3%	M
Wed	01:00	Tue 10:00	US Conference Board confidence (Oct)	80.5	81.9	M
Wednesday 28 October — Australia's decisive morning
Wed	11:15	Tue 20:15	RBA Senate Estimates (Bullock, Hauser, Hunter, Jones, Kent)			H
Wed	11:30	Tue 20:30	AU CPI: Q3 q/q · y/y · Sep monthly m/m · y/y · trimmed mean	1.3% · 3.9% · 0.7% · 4.2% · TM 0.9% q/q (TE fcst)	0.6% · 3.9% · 0.4% · 4.0% · TM 0.8% q/q	H
Wed	12:00	Tue 21:00	RBNZ OCR decision	3.00% (≈75–80%)	2.75%	H
Wed	≈23:30	≈08:30	UK Autumn Budget + OBR (speech time not confirmed)	Headroom ≈£15bn	£23.6bn	H
Thursday 29 October — Fed, BoC and the mega-caps
Thu	00:45	Wed 09:45	Bank of Canada + MPR (presser 01:30)	2.50% (≈80%)	2.25%	H
Thu	05:00 · 05:30	Wed 14:00 · 14:30	FOMC statement · Warsh press conference	Hold (≈90%)	3.75–4.00%	H
Thu	≈07:05	Wed 16:05	Microsoft (EPS est. $4.71) · Alphabet ($2.94)			H
Thu	11:30	Wed 20:30	AU Q3 import/export prices · Lilly before the US open			L
Thu	23:30	08:30	US Q3 GDP (advance) · Sep PCE headline · core (m/m · y/y) · claims	3.0–3.2% · 0.5% · 3.6% · core 0.3% · 3.1% · 196k	2.2% · 0.3% · 3.4% · 0.2% · 3.0% · 194k	H
Friday 30 October — ECB, BoJ, Amazon
Fri	00:15 · 00:45	Thu 09:15 · 09:45	ECB decision · Lagarde press conference	Hold	DFR 2.50%	H
Fri	≈07:00	Thu 16:00	Amazon ($2.01) · Intel · Coinbase · Strategy			H
Fri	10:30 · 11:30	Thu 19:30 · 20:30	Tokyo CPI (Oct) · Japan jobs, IP · AU Q3 PPI · Sep private credit	— · — · 1.0% · 0.5%	Tokyo 2.7%	M
Fri	≈13:00–14:00 · 17:30	Thu ≈22:00–23:00	BoJ decision + Outlook Report (time not fixed) · Ueda press conference	Hold	1.25%	H
Fri	17:30 – 21:00	02:30 – 06:00	France Q3 GDP, CPI · Spain flash CPI, GDP · Germany Q3 GDP · euro-area Q3 GDP flash · Italy CPI · Brent December expiry	EZ 0.2% q/q · DE 0.1%	EZ 0.6% · DE 0.3%	M
Fri	23:30	08:30	US ECI (Q3) · Canada GDP (Aug) · Exxon, Chevron before the open	ECI ≈0.8% (unverified) · CA 0.2%	≈0.9% · 0.0%	M
Sat 31	00:00 · 12:30	Fri 09:00 · 21:30	German flash CPI (Oct) · China official PMIs (Oct)		≈3.3% · ≈50.1 / 50.2 (unverified)	M
The sessions after
1–7 Nov	—	—	OPEC+ (seven core producers) Sun 1 Nov (single source) · US DST ends Sun 1 · Apple Mon 2 (call 09:00 AEDT Tue 3) · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 · Melbourne Cup (Victoria) Tue 3 · euro-area flash CPI Tue 3 (TE; unconfirmed) · Riksbank Wed 4 · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · Norges, Banxico Thu 5 · US payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30 · NZ election Sat 7			H
8–30 Nov	—	—	US October CPI Wed 11 Nov 00:30 · BI 18 Nov · PBoC LPR 20 Nov · BoK 26 Nov · S&P on France 27 Nov · US–China truce lapses late November · APEC Shenzhen (Trump–Xi), date not confirmed · government funding to 11 Dec			M

⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics and Newsquawk (23–25 Oct); later-week columns are lower confidence. US data is on schedule. Changes since Friday's edition: RBA Jones's time is 08:10 on the RBA calendar (No. 034 had 08:40); Apple's call is Mon 2 Nov ET; the euro-area October flash HICP is shown on 3 Nov; Meta reported on 21 Oct and is not this week.

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	Gulf escalation reaches Saudi export routes or a US strike on Iran	Yanbu/Rabigh claims; Trump's "maybe tomorrow"; post-midterm strike reports; third carrier group	Kalshi WTI ≥$115 by 31 Dec 43.1% (25 Oct)	Brent through $120; diesel and freight; global hike repricing; EM importers	V024's residual call
2	Hawkish central-bank cluster into an oil shock	RBNZ, BoC, FOMC Wed–Thu; ECB, BoJ Fri	Fed Dec ≥1 hike ≈75% (Investing); BoC ≈80%; RBNZ ≈75–80%	Front ends higher; equity multiple pressure; AUD crosses whipsaw	2-year options
3	AI-capex de-rating reaches mega-cap earnings	MSFT/GOOGL Wed ET, AMZN/INTC Thu ET, AAPL 2 Nov		Long semis the FMS's most crowded trade (45%); hyperscaler CDS at record wides	V031
4	Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY and IG	HY 340bp, CCC 1,340bp (22 Oct); FRED 23 Oct tonight		HY toward 375bp; private-credit marks; neocloud funding	V017 (High)
5	RBA hikes on 3 November	Q3 CPI and Estimates Wed 28 Oct	≈49–56% (RateWatch, RateProbability)	ACGB 3y back through 5%; AUD higher; rate-sensitives lower	V006; V023
6	France: relief fades, budget fails	Social-security vote Tue; ECB Thu; S&P 27 Nov		OAT–Bund back through 175bp; bank equity; BTP contagion	V025
7	NZ–AU divergence extends	RBNZ hike and a soft AU CPI on the same morning	RBNZ ≈75–80%	V023 closes on two RBA-table prints below 1.2250 (63 pips away)	The view's own stop
8	Midterm sweep and policy shock	3 Nov	Dem sweep 64% (Kalshi), 66% (Polymarket), 25 Oct	Tariff, sanctions and fiscal reversal risk; post-election Gulf action	Q4 collars
9	UK Budget disappoints on fiscal rules	Wed 28 Oct ≈23:30 AEDT; BoE 5 Nov	BoE November fully priced (TE)	Gilt 30y through 5.9%	Gilt 10s30s steepener
10	BoJ language shift and a yen squeeze	Fri 30 Oct Outlook Report; core-core CPI 2.4%	BoJ December ≈80%	USD/JPY toward 150; carry unwind in EM and crypto	Short-dated USD/JPY puts
11	US shutdown risk returns	Funding to 11 Dec	Kalshi 33% by 12 Dec (25 Oct)	Data blackout; front-end volatility	—

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	7,623.68	7,612 (23 Oct low) · 7,500	7,663 (22 Oct) · 7,757 (21 Oct)	7,500 Morgan Stanley via TradingKey (carried, single source). Investing MAs are intraday-timeframe and not used
Nasdaq-100	≈28,960	28,826 (23 Oct low)	29,188 (V031 entry) · 29,822 · 30,932 (V031 closes)	Investing 23 Oct range 28,826–29,161; 200-day ≈30,173 (timeframe unclear)
UST 10y · 5s30s (par)	5.00% · 51bp	4.96% (22 Oct)	5.09% (16 Oct) · 5.13% (21 Oct)	V030 closed at 47bp; kept for reference
OAT–Bund	171.8bp	150 (upgrade line) · 140 (mirror) · 80 (V025 closes)	174.6 (22 Oct record) · ≈178 (22 Oct intraday)	Dedicated series is the mark
ACGB 3y · 10y	4.85 · 5.18%	4.80 · 5.10	4.91 · 5.26	Resistance = 22 Oct levels; supports are our reading
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	101.81 · 1.1202 · 156.87	101.50 · 1.1100 · 156.08 (23 Oct low)	102.88 · 1.1300 · 157.16 · 158.4	155.21 = the August post-intervention level
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.7006 · 1.2313 (RBA)	0.6896 (15 Oct low) · 1.2250 (V023 closes)	0.7032 (NY close) · 1.2357 (21 Oct RBA)	Bases never blended
Brent (Dec)	$116.72	$113.17 (22 Oct) · $108.8 · $86.53–89.53 (V024)	≈$117 (23 Oct intraday, CBS) · $120	December expires 30 Oct; the band must move to January
Gold · Silver	$3,995 · $53.88	$3,989 (GCZ6 23 Oct low) · $3,950	$4,048 · $4,145 (22 Oct high)	Kitco, Investing; $3,950 is our reading
S&P/ASX 200	8,795.2	8,613–8,641 (demand zone)	8,900 (V006 closes) · 8,935–8,940 (supply)	Zones per Market Index ChartWatch
KOSPI · Hang Seng · Nikkei	≈5,550 · ≈23,093 · 62,693	5,493 (20 Oct low) · 22,935 · 62,500	5,736 · 23,652 · 64,621	Prior closes as levels; 62,500 is our reading
IG / HY / CCC OAS	89 / 340 / 1,340bp (22 Oct)	CCC 1,050 (V017 exits) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints)	HY 350 · CCC 1,340 (series high)	FRED
Bitcoin	≈$80,580	$79,250 (24 Oct low) · $78,000	$81,562 · $84,262 (12 Oct high)	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was corrected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Monday edition: six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:10 AEDT, with the US session closed since Saturday morning, so the US-close block was fetched from settled sources rather than last. The AP tabulation for Friday 23 October was obtained (via La Nación and Yahoo syndications) and re-read directly by the lead; it reconciles exactly to Thursday's AP closes and to settled SPY, DIA, QQQ and IWM. The official par curve for 22 and 23 October, the OAT–Bund dedicated rows, the RBA 4pm table and the Nikkei close were read from their primaries. The Fed Rate Monitor read is the settled post-close refresh (stamped 00:35 ET Saturday). Every figure was retrieved on 25–26 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 034

(1) MATERIAL — Brent December, Thursday 22 October. The settle is $113.17, not the ≈$112.37 single-source figure No. 034 carried (Investing's dated table; derived from Friday's +$3.55 by FinanceFeeds and Oil Monitor; Rio Times ≈$113.21). No trigger depended on it; V024's band is unaffected.
(2) MATERIAL — Russell 2000, Thursday 22 October. AP has 2,784.03 (+0.1%), not 2,775.36 (−0.20%). Settled IWM (+0.08%) was right and the Yahoo header was wrong; the conflict No. 034 flagged resolves against the figure it used. S&P 500 restated to 7,663.43 (from 7,663.45); Dow and Nasdaq confirmed.
(3) Nikkei 225, Thursday 22 October. The official Friday close (62,693.16, −214.68) implies Thursday closed at 62,907.84; No. 034 used TE's 62,942 and flagged TE's other figure of 62,908, which was the right one.
(4) Fed pricing. No. 034 quoted a pre-close 14:55 ET snapshot (October hike 8.0%). The settled read after Friday is 10.3%; December ≥1 hike ≈75%, unchanged.
(5) RBA Jones. The RBA calendar lists the AFR summit panel at 08:10 today, not 08:40.
(6) Discharged from Friday's list: Moody's decision (affirmed Aa3, negative); the 23 October OAT–Bund row (171.8bp); CFTC COT for 20 October; FRED for 21–22 October including CCC; AP tabulations for 22 and 23 October; RBA 4pm for 23 October; Brent December 22–23 October from two or more sources; Japan CPI; flash PMIs. Not discharged: the 26 October OAT–Bund row (posts with a lag); RBA 4pm for 26 October (posts 16:00 today); ASX IB futures; AP for 21 October (No. 034's restated Yahoo levels stand).

Conflicts and how they were resolved

Brent's contract label: Investing's page header reads "LCOF7" with a last price of $111.70 "closed 23/10" while its own table shows $116.72; news outlets and TE treat $116.72 as the front-month (December) settle and it is used; the $111.70 may be January (which would imply ≈$5 of backwardation, unverified). A Rio Times ticker showing Brent $88.88 is a stale feed and is rejected. WTI weekly change: +2.0% to +4.3% across sources, disputed across the November–December roll; shown as a range. OAT–Bund Friday: dedicated series 171.8bp vs secondary reports of ≈168–170bp; the dedicated series is the mark. DAX: 25,152.30 vs 25,181.65; the first (two sources) is used. Fed October hike: Investing 10.3% vs CME ≈10% vs Kalshi 7.5–9% vs Polymarket 5.5%; Investing is the series of record. RBA November: 49% (RateWatch, 25bp) to 56.4% (RateProbability); TE's 64% has been repeated unchanged since 21 October and is excluded as stale. RBNZ pricing: ≈75–80% (Newsquawk, desk 2) against a stale one-third from 3 September (desk 4); the fresh figure is used. PCE consensus: 3.6% y/y (TE) vs 3.7% (AP preview). Midterm odds: sweep 64–66% (DeFiRate, 25 Oct) supersedes older Senate figures. Shaybah: No. 034's strike was reported 22 October; a separate claim of a 19 October Houthi attack on Shaybah is single-source and not used.

Single-source and unverified items

Weekend Houthi claims on Yanbu, Rabigh and pumping stations (no Saudi confirmation) · IRGC mine and "traffic stopped" claims · Kpler's 8.5mb/d Hormuz figure (via Oil Monitor) · OPEC+ meeting on 1 Nov · EIA inventory figures · Asian closes other than the Nikkei (TE, CFD-based) · TTF, silver, platinum, iron ore, aluminium, lithium, uranium (TE) · all non-US flash PMI detail (Newsquawk) · Healey as Chancellor (City AM) · UK Budget measures and time · France social-security vote date · BofA FMS details · CFTC ultra-bond and 5-year rows (truncated fetch) · Oracle and CoreWeave CDS (mid-October) · crypto prices other than BTC · BoC, Riksbank, Norges, Banxico, RBI, SNB rates (TE) · Apple's date.

Not obtained

Monday indicative opens (markets not yet open) · SPI overnight settle · Brazil runoff result (count under way at filing) · FRED OAS for 23 October (posts tonight US time) · BofA Flow Show of 23 October · CoinShares weekly · TOPIX · HS Tech · ASX IB futures · Hunter's 60 Minutes content · Cotality clearance rate for 24 October · fresh RBNZ OIS · NZ weekend news · BoE November pricing figure · March 2027 Fed bucket beyond 4.25–4.50%.

Tuesday's first verification targets

(1) The 26 October OAT–Bund dedicated row — decides V025's upgrade. (2) FRED for 23 October (V017). (3) RBA 4pm for 26 October (V023). (4) Brent December 26 October settle from two sources, and a verified December–January spread to roll V024's band before expiry. (5) Brazil runoff result. (6) Re-check the CFTC ultra-bond and 5-year rows against the raw file. (7) ASX IB futures for 3 November.

United States, the Fed and positioning

AP via La Nación — How major US stock indexes fared, 23 Oct · 22 Oct · AP via Yahoo · AP via BNN — Friday wrap · Cappnotes — closing look · SPY · DIA · QQQ · IWM · TradingKey — close · VIX history · FRED VIXCLS
US Treasury — par yield curve · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Fed — 16 Sep statement · DeFiRate — Fed odds · balance of power · oil odds · PMPicks — Fed tracker · Kitco — US flash PMIs · TE — UMich final · AACOM — CR to 11 Dec · Amazon — Q3 date · MacTrast — Apple date
CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · petroleum · AAII · ICI MMF · Reuters via SRN — Lipper · BofA via Finvaulta — credit flows · BofA — Great AI Rotation · Newsquawk — prior Flow Show · FMS via TechFlow · Fear & Greed replica · put/call · VIX term · SKEW · breadth · FactSet — 23 Oct · Oppenheimer — 19 Oct · Investing — NDX technical

Rates, FX and central banks

Australia, New Zealand and Asia

Market Index — evening wrap, 23 Oct · weekend wrap · ABC — markets live, 23 Oct · TE — ASX · TE — ACGB · TE — AU calendar · Cotality — clearance rates · TradingHours — NZX · TWSE · TE — NZX · Nikkei Indexes · TE — JGB · TE — China · TE — Hang Seng · TE — KOSPI · TE — India · investingLive — Fifth Plenum · CNBC — truce extension

Europe and geopolitics

Commodities, credit and digital assets

TE — Brent · Investing — Brent history · OilPrice · FinanceFeeds — Brent · Oil Monitor · Rio Times — oil · Buckhead · TE — commodities · Kitco — gold · Westmetall
FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · Securitas — Oracle CDS · LetsDataScience — CoreWeave · CNBC — neoclouds (headline) · CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the timestamps shown and may be revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. Views are analytical framings with invalidation conditions set in advance, logged and scored in the project's views ledger. No. 035, Monday 26 October 2026.