Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Wednesday morning.

Hauser moved the RBA's November meeting from a long shot to a coin toss: the market now prices roughly a 41–51% chance of a hike on 3 November, up from about 22% on Tuesday. At Citi's conference the Deputy Governor said the inflation outlook "looks materially worse than we projected in the August report", that oil is about "a third higher than we assumed", and that expectations drifting above target are "the central banker's nightmare … We can't allow expectations to shift away from target" (RBA transcript, verified). Pricing sources differ: Market Index 41% (from 27%), TE 44%, Bloomberg data via the ABC about 51%; centralbank.watch's 21% predates the speech. ACGB 3-year yields rose about 6bp to ≈4.91% and the 10-year 5bp to ≈5.28% (TE snapshot); AUD/USD rose 26 pips to 0.7010 on the RBA table. Goldman now calls a hike to 4.85% on 3 November. Q3 CPI on Wednesday 28 October (Westpac: headline 1.3% q/q, trimmed mean 0.9%) now decides it. V006 (ASX underweight) is 1.94% in favour; V023 (AUD/NZD) gained 55 pips.
France's spread broke its one-year high on the series we mark: OAT–Bund 150.8bp on 20 October on the dedicated series, and the 10-year OAT closed about 5.00% on Wednesday, the highest since 2002. The ideal-investisseur series rose 8.5bp to 150.8bp against a prior one-year high of 146.9bp (verified, dedicated series); Wednesday's same-page TE legs (OAT 5.001%, Bund 3.439%) give ≈156bp, with TE reporting an intraday 160bp. The rise came while French equities rallied (CAC ≈+1.1%) and Carrefour fell about 14% on riot damage to 70 sites. Moody's (Aa3 negative) reports after the Paris close on Friday, which is Saturday morning in Sydney, and the second protest day is Saturday. V025 (widener, Med) is +57bp from entry on the dedicated mark. We do not upgrade it today; the upgrade condition is pre-committed in §08.
The US curve flattened through V030's line: 5s30s was 48bp on Tuesday's official par curve, the first par close below 50bp, so Wednesday's row (≈09:00 AEDT) decides whether the steepener closes. The 20 October par curve had the 5-year unchanged at 4.94% while the 30-year fell 6bp to 5.42% (Treasury, verified). On Wednesday the 20-year auction tailed 0.9bp (5.469% against a 5.460% when-issued; bid-to-cover 2.73×; indirects 58.2% against a 65.2% average), a weak result (investingLive, Newsquawk; verified). Vendor prints put Wednesday's 2-year near 4.84% and the 30-year near 5.45%, a further bear-flattening, which would close V030 at about 48bp against its 57bp entry if the par row confirms. Fed pricing was steady: October 16.1% and at least one hike by 9 December 86.5% (Investing.com, 15:55 ET, not settled).
The AI trade bounced in Asia and New York, and the after-hours results then split it: Meta +3.1% and Tesla +1.4% after the bell, Lam Research −7.1%. The KOSPI rose 3.29% (Samsung +5.7%, SK hynix +5.8%) and the TAIEX 1.28% after Super Micro lifted its quarterly revenue guide to $18.5–19.5bn from $14.5–15.5bn. In New York the S&P rose about 0.46% to ≈7,748 and the Nasdaq about 0.94% (derived; SPY +0.53%, QQQ +1.06%). After the close Meta reported revenue of $64.60bn (+26%) and raised the low end of 2026 capex to $135bn; Tesla's adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat by 3 cents; Lam guided December-quarter revenue to $8.6bn and fell 7.1% (16:13 ET); IBM and TI beat (stocktitan, Electrek, company releases). V031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) marks ≈29,822, 2.17% against it since entry and 3.7% below its close line. Netflix fell 5.3% on a Q4 guide below consensus and a cut to ad revenue.
Oil round-tripped again: Brent December traded up to $110.85 when Iran rejected talks, then settled about flat near $108.8 on stronger Gulf export data, despite a bullish EIA draw. Iran told Pakistan's army chief there will be no talks until its demands are met, and Security Council secretary Rezaei said "not a single gram" of enriched uranium will leave the country; the IRGC claimed mines hit three tankers, which CENTCOM rejected (Reuters via Business Recorder; Gulf News). The US is sending the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group and about 10,000 personnel (Gulf News, corroborated). EIA crude stocks fell 3.06m barrels against a 0.82m draw expected and gasoline fell 2.95m, but distillates rose 1.68m (Reuters, verified). The fade came as TE and Kpler-via-WSJ reported Gulf exports near pre-war levels (single sources; it conflicts with Kpler's early-October Hormuz count). Monday's ≈$108.88 is corrected to a $108.79 settle. V024's re-own band is about $19–22 below.
UK inflation surprised on all three measures, so a BoE hike on 5 November is close to fully priced: CPI 3.5% against 3.4% expected, core 2.8% against 2.7%, services 3.7%. Motor fuels rose 29.8% on the year and goods inflation reached 3.2%, the highest since September 2023 (ONS, verified); input PPI was 8.3% y/y. Sterling briefly touched about 1.34 and ended near 1.3386; gilts nonetheless rallied about 5bp to ≈5.38% (TE, single source). Today brings NZ Q3 CPI at 08:45 (consensus 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y; after filing), the Bank of Korea at 12:00 (hold expected) and the CBRT at 22:00 (a 100bp cut to 36% expected). Bullock testifies on Friday.

Overnight recap

Wednesday 21 October: a hawkish RBA morning, an AI rebound across Asia, a French bond sell-off under a European equity rally, and US earnings after the bell. Chronological within region.

Asia-Pacific: Hauser, then a chip rebound

Australia. Hauser's fireside chat (08:53–09:31 AEDT) set the day: inflation "materially worse" than in August, the next quarterly underlying print possibly "materially worse" than forecast, rate rises "laying pain on top of pain", the exchange rate "by far the most important" channel, and the Board "still finalising our forecast" (RBA transcript; ABC; Market Index). He said 4.7% unemployment may contain "some noise". Hike odds for 3 November rose to about 41–51% from about 22% (§05). The ASX 200 closed 8,831.3 (+14.4, +0.16%), having spent most of the day lower (ABC, Finimize, Investing.com; verified, and it ties to Tuesday's 8,816.9). Industrials (+0.99%) and financials (+0.96%) led; BHP fell 1.55% and materials lagged. NextDC fell about 41% to a five-year low after cutting FY27 net revenue guidance to $475–500m from $615–640m because Jemena suspended power works at its M3 Melbourne site, putting new development on hold; data-centre contractors fell with it. Beach Energy rose 5.8% on record quarterly revenue ($565m), Mesoblast about 6%, Service Stream 5.6%; Telix fell 7.4%. Woodside lifted Q3 output 12% q/q and narrowed 2026 guidance to 174–181 MMboe. Breadth across all listed stocks was 478 up and 560 down; the A-VIX fell 2.1% to 10.66 (Investing.com, single source).

Japan. The Nikkei rose about 0.85% to ≈64,621 after touching 65,404.63 intraday (TE, ad-hoc-news, newsonjapan; corroborated, official archive not yet posted). The archive does show Tuesday's close at 64,075.42, correcting No. 032's ≈64,053. Resonac rose 5.3% and Fujikura 3.7%. September exports grew 16.7% y/y against 20.1% expected, and the deficit was ¥536.6bn against ¥181bn (Invezz, Reuters); imports were held down by delayed Gulf crude. JGBs were steady (10-year 2.896%). Japan's national CPI is Friday 10:30 (core 2.1% expected, from 1.7%).

Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The KOSPI rose 3.29% to 5,735.66 (JoongAng, verified) with Samsung Electronics +5.67% and SK hynix +5.81%; foreigners bought ₩660bn. The TAIEX rose 1.28% to 46,887.77 (Focus Taiwan, verified). Hong Kong did not join: the Hang Seng fell 0.90% to 23,651.87, a 15-week low, after opening 271 points higher, with Tencent −3.7% to −4% (below HK$400) and CATL about −10% on a weak Q3 profit (IBTimes, TE; corroborated). Shanghai fell 0.60% to 3,713.03 and the CSI 300 about 0.97% (TE; CSI single source). The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7192 against a Reuters estimate of 6.6779, still leaning against yuan strength. Bank Indonesia held at 5.75% against a hike that markets expected, but raised its deposit facility 25bp to 5.00% and cut reserve requirements (TE; Tempo).

Europe: stocks up, French bonds down, UK CPI hot

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 644.49, its first gain in three sessions (Sharecast; ties to Tuesday's 638.64, which corrects No. 032's TE ≈636.7). The DAX rose 1.35% to ≈25,645, its highest since 17 September; the CAC ≈+1.1% to ≈7,925 (level derived); the FTSE 100 +0.19% to 10,752.88 (Sharecast, verified). Results drove it: Randstad +20%, EssilorLuxottica +11.8%, SAP +3.5%, Adidas higher on raised guidance; Carrefour fell about 14%, its biggest drop on record, after cutting its outlook because riots hit 70 sites; Michelin −4.7%. UK CPI for September was 3.5% (3.4% expected; 3.1% prior), core 2.8% (2.7%; 2.6%), services 3.7% (3.4% prior), CPIH 3.6%, m/m 0.4% (ONS, verified). Input PPI rose 8.3% y/y and output 4.6%; public borrowing was £24.5bn in September (Sharecast). French 10-year yields closed above 5% for the first time in nearly three weeks (Sharecast); Bunds sold off 2.2bp to 3.439% and BTPs about 5bp to 4.59% (TE). Lane said the ECB aims to return inflation to 2% "without derailing growth" and Kazāks urged caution "because of opposing forces" (Econostream, headlines only).

United States: a broad bounce led by AI hardware

US cash closes are derived for Wednesday. Closing-bell moves (24/7 Wall St, 16:00 ET) applied to AP's 20 October closes give the S&P 500 ≈7,748 (+0.46%), the Dow ≈52,842 (+0.66%) and the Nasdaq Composite ≈26,673 (+0.94%). Settled ETFs: SPY +0.53% (implying ≈7,753), DIA +0.64%, QQQ +1.06%, IWM +0.25% (stockanalysis, 16:00 ET stamps). The S&P and SPY derivations differ by about 5 points; the AP tabulation was posted but not readable and the closes will be corrected to AP tomorrow. The Nasdaq-100 is ≈29,822 and the Russell ≈2,780, both derived. AP's Tuesday tabulation, obtained this morning, has S&P 7,712.57, Dow 52,495.88, Nasdaq 26,424.82 and Russell 2,773.42, so No. 032's Reuters preliminary closes are corrected by −1.95, −18.10 and +2.98 points (§13). Leadership was AI hardware: Super Micro +9.6% on its raised guide, Dell about +5%, HPE +4%, Nvidia +1.5%, AMD +2%; cybersecurity names rose 5–8% after a critical web vulnerability was disclosed; SpaceX (SPCX) rose 7.9% on a Q3 beat with up to 1.3bn shares unlocking today; MicroStrategy +7.6%, and Circle and Coinbase gained more than 4% on new stablecoin rules. AT&T fell 6.1% on Starlink Mobile competition and Netflix 5.3%. The VIX was about 16.8 late in the session (Yahoo, 15:44 ET; close not obtained), after a 17.31 close on Tuesday.

After the bell (prints 16:13–16:19 ET). Meta: revenue $64.60bn (+26%) against about $63.3bn expected; GAAP EPS $3.83 including a $9.89bn legal charge ($7.40 excluding it; consensus figures range from $3.56 to $6.67 by source); Q4 revenue guide $73–76bn; 2026 capex $135–145bn (low end raised from $130bn); a one-for-one Class C share distribution; shares +3.1% to $719. Tesla: revenue $28.05bn (in line), adjusted EPS $0.48 against $0.45, operating income down 56% to $718m, auto gross margin ex-credits 18.1%; +1.4% after hours. Lam Research: revenue $8.22bn, non-GAAP EPS $2.20 against $2.17, December-quarter guide $8.6bn ±$0.4bn; −7.1% after hours. IBM: operating EPS $2.95 against $2.87, revenue $17.1bn, free-cash-flow guidance raised. Texas Instruments: revenue $6.06bn (+28%), EPS $2.62 against $2.39, Q4 revenue guide $5.80–6.30bn. After-hours prints for IBM and TI were not obtained.

Rates, data and the Fed. The official par curve for Tuesday posted: 2-year 4.79%, 5-year 4.94%, 10-year 5.12%, 30-year 5.42%, so 5s30s 48bp (−6bp) and 2s10s 33bp (Treasury, verified). The 20-year auction ($13bn) stopped at 5.469% against 5.460% when-issued, a 0.9bp tail against a six-auction average of 0.2bp; bid-to-cover 2.73× (average 2.62×); indirects 58.2%, directs 31.6%, dealers 10.3% (investingLive, Newsquawk; verified). Vendor yields on Wednesday: 10-year ≈5.14–5.16%, 2-year ≈4.84%, 30-year ≈5.45% (TE, provisional). MBA applications fell 5.3% with the 30-year rate at 7.41%. The Fed Rate Monitor at 15:55 ET had October at 16.1% and December at 13.5% hold / 73.0% one hike / 13.5% two (Investing.com; pre-close); Kalshi and Polymarket had October at 12.5% (DeFiRate, 14:59 ET). Bessent said a Democratic House could do "very little" to stop the agenda and that "we have very durable tariff authorities" (AP).

Gulf, Russia and the rest

Gulf. Iran told Pakistan's army chief it will not talk until the port blockade ends, oil sanctions are lifted and hostilities stop on all fronts; Ghalibaf said Tehran has "nothing new to say"; Araghchi said the strait stays shut unless the US accepts Iran's initiative, then said late in the day Iran would give diplomacy "another chance" (Newsquawk). Rubio called a deal "extremely difficult". The IRGC said mines stopped three tankers on "unauthorised" routes and that one carrying more than 2m barrels exploded; CENTCOM rejected the claims (unverified). UKMTO reported a ship struck by a projectile about 11nm off Bukha, Oman. Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco's Yanbu and Shaybah sites (unconfirmed); Saudi Arabia intercepted six drones. Treasury sanctioned new Iranian oil shipping networks. Netanyahu said the only way to end the threat is to topple Iran's government. Russia–Ukraine: a US official said Russia accepted a trilateral meeting proposal; Zelenskyy backs negotiator-level talks by early November; the first Russian diesel cargo to the US sails today under Trump's 16 October sanctions waiver; the CBR decides Friday (hold at 14% expected). US–China: no new headlines; China's suspension of extra rare-earth export controls expires 10 November.

This morning's setup

No overnight SPI settle was obtainable at filing; with New York up about 0.5% and the December SPI's Wednesday indication at 8,866 (ABC, 08:20), a firmer open is our inference, with miners exposed to copper and the RBA repricing weighing on rate-sensitives. NZ CPI lands at 08:45, after filing; a print above 0.8% q/q is the main near risk to V023. The Wednesday par row and the settled Fed Rate Monitor post around 08:00–09:00 AEDT.

Market dashboard

Wednesday 21 October closes unless marked; 1d is Wednesday's session and 1w (week to date) is against Friday 16 October's close.

Week to date: change from the Friday 16 October close

Three sessions (19–21 October). Labels marked "≈" use a derived level. US indices are derived from AP's 20 October closes and Wednesday's closing percentages. FX pairs are shown as the pair moved; AUD/USD and AUD/NZD are on the RBA 4pm basis. Hover over a bar for the exact value.

UpDown

Equities	Close	1d	1w	Note
S&P 500	≈7,748	≈+0.46%	≈+1.16%	Derived (closing % on AP's 7,712.57); SPY +0.53% implies ≈7,753. AP 21 Oct not readable. Above all four MAs (Investing.com: 200d 7,715, 50d 7,734, 100d 7,755)
Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp.	≈52,842 · ≈26,673	≈+0.66% · ≈+0.94%	≈+1.6% · ≈+2.0%	Derived; DIA +0.64% (corroborates). Nasdaq single source
Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000	≈29,822 · ≈2,780	≈+1.06% · ≈+0.25%	≈+2.2% · ≈+2.1%	Derived from settled QQQ and IWM. Lam −7.1% after hours; Meta +3.1%
VIX · VIX3M	≈16.8 (late) · —	≈−3%	—	Close not obtained; 15:44 ET 16.79 (Yahoo). Tuesday close 17.31 / 18.99 (thetrading.tools, corroborated)
Stoxx 600 · DAX	644.49 · ≈25,645	+0.92% · +1.35%	≈0.0% · ≈+0.1%	Sharecast, TE; both tie to priors (verified). DAX highest since 17 Sep
CAC 40 · FTSE 100	≈7,925 · 10,752.88	≈+1.1% · +0.19%	—	CAC % Sharecast, level derived; FTSE ties (verified). Carrefour ≈−14%
FTSE MIB · IBEX 35	≈49,600 · ≈19,324	≈+1.1% · ≈+1.2%	—	TE CFDs; MIB prior conflicts (49,071 vs 49,754), so unverified
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	≈64,621 · —	≈+0.85% · —	≈−1.1% · —	Corroborated (TE, ad-hoc-news). Tuesday official 64,075.42. TOPIX close not obtained
Shanghai · CSI 300	3,713.03 · ≈4,111.9	−0.60% · ≈−0.97%	≈−0.1% · —	Corroborated; CSI 300 TE only. CATL A-shares −12%
Hang Seng	23,651.87	−0.90%	−2.2%	15-week low. Tencent −4%. HS Tech −1.44% (level not obtained)
KOSPI · TAIEX	5,735.66 · 46,887.77	+3.29% · +1.28%	+1.2% · −0.5%	Both verified (JoongAng; Focus Taiwan). SK hynix +5.8%
Sensex · Nifty 50	73,709.69 · 22,811.35	−0.19% · −0.34%	≈−1.4%	Corroborated (Kotak Neo). Nifty IT +2.9%; small caps −2.4%
S&P/ASX 200	8,831.3	+0.16%	+0.28%	Verified (ABC, Finimize, Investing; ties). 0.78% below V006's 8,900 line. NextDC −41%
NZX 50	13,761.29	+0.95%	≈+0.1%	TE, ties to prior

Rates & credit	Level	1d	1w	Note
UST par (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y), 20 Oct	4.79 · 4.94 · 5.12 · 5.42%	+2 · 0 · −3 · −6bp	+5 · +5 · +3 · −1bp	Verified (Treasury par). 21 Oct row ≈09:00 AEDT. Vendor 21 Oct: 2y ≈4.84, 10y ≈5.15, 30y ≈5.45 (TE, provisional)
5s30s · 2s10s (par, 20 Oct)	48 · 33bp	−6 · −5bp	−6 · −2bp	Derived from par. First par close below 50bp: V030's stop needs a second
US 20-year auction	5.469%	tail 0.9bp	prior 5.420%	Bid-to-cover 2.73×; indirects 58.2% (avg 65.2%). Verified
Gilt 10y · 30y	≈5.38 · ≈5.80%	≈−5 · ≈−6bp	—	TE, single source; TE pages disagree on the sign
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	3.439 · 5.001 · 4.595%	+2.2 · +8.5 · +5.2bp	+1.9 · +21.5 · +11.6bp	TE same-page prints. OAT highest since 2002. BTP–Bund ≈116bp
OAT–Bund	150.8bp (20 Oct, dedicated) · ≈156bp (21 Oct, derived)	+8.5bp	+13.4bp	Dedicated series breaks its 146.9bp one-year high (verified; range 59.0–150.8). V025's mark. TE: 160bp intraday
JGB 10y · 30y	2.896 · 3.93%	0 · −1bp	—	TE
ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y	≈4.91 · ≈5.28 · ≈5.70%	≈+6 · ≈+5 · ≈−1bp	≈+5 · ≈+4bp	TE snapshot, not labelled closes (corroborated in direction by the AUD move). 2y ≈4.94%. ASX futures not obtained
Canada 10y	3.903%	+0.5bp	—	TE, single source
US IG · HY · CCC OAS (19 Oct)	87 · 329 · 1,310bp	no new print	+3 · +6 · +32bp vs 15 Oct	Verified (FRED); 20 Oct observations not posted at filing. CCC series high stands

FX	Level	1d	1w	Note
DXY	≈101.80	≈+0.1%	≈0.0%	TE 101.78–101.83 (corroborated by Benzinga ≈101.79)
EUR/USD · GBP/USD	1.1227 · 1.3386	−0.08% · +0.04%	−0.1% · +0.4%	TE, corroborated. Sterling touched ≈1.34 on CPI; euro weighed by France
USD/JPY	158.34	+0.09%	+0.2%	Investing (range 158.14–158.39), TE 158.32 (corroborated)
AUD/USD	≈0.7021 (NY) · 0.7010 (RBA)	≈+0.3% · +0.37%	+0.9% (RBA)	RBA 4pm verified; NY TE single source. Met sellers at the 100-day MA (investingLive)
AUD/NZD · NZD/USD	1.2357 (RBA) · ≈0.569	+0.45% · —	+0.6%	RBA 4pm verified (AUD/JPY 110.83; TWI 64.9). TE NZD page shows 0.5687 and 0.5692. V023 107 pips above its stop
USD/CAD · USD/CHF	1.4055 · 0.8256	−0.05% · +0.1%	—	TE, single source
USD/CNY · fix	6.6745 · 6.7192	≈0.0%	—	Fix vs Reuters estimate 6.6779: 413 pips weak (Tradingpedia, investingLive)
USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN	94.89 · 1,325.2 · ≈18.73	+0.1% · 0.0% · ?	—	TE; KRW Seoul close JoongAng. MXN's stated +1.6% unconfirmed

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	1w	Note
Brent DECEMBER	≈$108.82	+0.03%	−0.95%	Newsquawk settle (+$0.03); Investing close $108.75. Range $107.70–111.32 (Reuters high $110.85). 20 Oct settle $108.79 verified
WTI DECEMBER	≈$97.15–97.18	≈−0.67%	≈−2.4%	Newsquawk / Investing (corroborated). 20 Oct $97.82 (corrects ≈$97.62). Brent–WTI ≈$11.6
EIA (week to 16 Oct)	Crude −3.06m · gasoline −2.95m · distillate +1.68m	vs −0.82 · −0.44 · −1.16m	—	Reuters (verified). Cushing +0.99m; runs 93.4%
Henry Hub · TTF	≈$2.78–2.86 · €86.70	≈−6% · +1.9%	—	TE CFD, Buckhead (approximate). EU storage 74.6%
Gold (spot)	$4,112	−0.32%	≈−1.2%	Kitco 15:11 ET bid/ask 4,111.10/4,113.10 (verified); range $4,104.50–4,142.80
Silver · Platinum	$57.01 · $1,613	−1.5% · −2.1%	—	Kitco (verified)
Copper LME cash · COMEX	$14,540/t (20 Oct) · ≈$6.55/lb	+0.3% · ≈−0.3%	—	Westmetall (verified): 3M $14,357, backwardation ≈$183; stocks 233,800t. COMEX TE
Iron ore 62% · aluminium	$90.86 (20 Oct) · $3,003.50	−0.1% · −0.3%	—	TE (single source) · Westmetall cash (verified)
Lithium carbonate · uranium	CNY102,700 · $90.15	+0.34% · 0.0%	—	TE, single source
Bitcoin	≈$84,170	≈+2.0%	≈+2.8%	CoinGecko (late 21 Oct UTC, no stamp); CoinDesk $83,404 at 05:22 ET (+2.45%). Corroborated
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,484 · $107.5 · $1.38 · $747	≈+2 · +1.5 · +4.5 · +1.4%	—	CoinGecko; signs from CoinDesk. Total cap $2.93tn; BTC dominance 57.7%
Spot ETF flows (20 Oct)	BTC +$23.2m · ETH −$26.1m	21 Oct not posted	19 Oct BTC +$526.7m	Farside (verified; 20 Oct BTC may be incomplete). ETH fifth straight outflow

Conventions: 1d is Wednesday 21 October; 1w is against Friday 16 October's close. US cash closes per the masthead basis line. Treasury rows are the official par curve (20 October, the latest posted); vendor yields are labelled. FX is New York unless marked RBA 4pm. Oil is front-month December. "≈" marks a derived or unconfirmed value, "—" means not obtained and "?" an unconfirmed change; §13 says which.

What is driving markets

Running themes updated, not rewritten. Australia moves to the top; France's spread breaks out; the Fed theme becomes a curve theme.

1. Australia: the neutral rate, not the jobs print, is now the RBA's argument

Hauser made the argument explicit. The August forecasts assumed oil about a third lower than it is; he now calls the inflation outlook "materially worse", says the next quarterly underlying print may come in materially above the August track, and frames the risk as expectations: businesses telling the RBA that "3 per cent, 3.5 per cent is the new normal" (ABC). He conceded rate rises are "laying pain on top of pain" and that 4.7% unemployment may carry "some noise", but said the RBA needs "some easing in the economy" to get inflation sustainably below 3%. The market moved from about 22% to roughly 41–51% for 3 November in one morning (sources in §05), the 3-year ACGB rose about 6bp, and AUD/USD rose to 0.7010 on the RBA table before giving back part of the move in New York. ABC's Janda called November "a 50-50 proposition"; Betashares' Bassanese expects a hike; Goldman moved to a November hike to 4.85%.

So whatQ3 CPI (Wed 28 October, 11:30) is now a live decision input rather than a confirmation, and Westpac's 0.9% q/q trimmed-mean forecast sits above the RBA's August track on Hauser's own reading. For our views: a hike is good for V023 (AUD/NZD, now 107 pips above its stop) and supports V006 (ASX underweight, 0.78% below its close line). The risk to both is NZ CPI at 08:45 and the RBNZ on the same day as Australian CPI.

2. France: unrest turns a budget problem into a spread problem

The spread has now broken out on the series we mark. The dedicated ideal-investisseur OAT–Bund printed 150.8bp on 20 October, above its 146.9bp one-year high, and Wednesday's TE legs (OAT 5.001%, Bund 3.439%) give about 156bp, with TE reporting 160bp intraday and calling it the widest since the euro debt crisis. The OAT is above 5% for the first time since 2002 by TE's account. What is new is that French equities rose (CAC ≈+1.1%) while French bonds fell: the bond market is pricing fiscal and political risk, not growth. Carrefour's ≈−14% on riot damage to 70 sites is the corporate cost. The Assembly committee rejected the revenue part of the 2027 budget; the social-security bill goes to a vote on 27 October; Moody's (Aa3 negative) reports late Friday Paris time. BTP–Bund widened only about 3bp to ≈116bp, so contagion is still limited.

So whatV025 (OAT–Bund widener, Med) marks 150.8bp on its own series, about +57bp from entry. A downgrade to A1 on Friday would align Moody's with Fitch and S&P (A+). We pre-commit the upgrade test today rather than act on a single print (§08). The close condition, a compression inside 80bp, is 70bp away; an explicit ECB backstop signal on 29 October is the other exit.

3. The Fed: the front end holds December, the long end rallies, and the curve flattens

The theme has become a curve story. Tuesday's par curve had the 30-year down 6bp and the 5-year unchanged, taking 5s30s from 54bp to 48bp; on Wednesday the 20-year auction tailed 0.9bp with weak indirect demand, and vendor prints still show the 2-year rising about 5bp and the 30-year about 3bp, which is a further bear flattening. Pricing is steady: October 16.1% at 15:55 ET (the settled read posts after 17:00 ET) and at least one hike by 9 December 86.5%, with January carrying about a 50% chance of two hikes (Investing.com). BofA still calls October. Our reading is that the market is pricing hikes into the front end that it expects to slow growth, which compresses the long-end premium relative to the 5-year, the opposite of the steepener's thesis.

So whatV030 is one par print from closing. If Wednesday's 5s30s posts below 50bp, the view closes at the next edition as wrong, at about 48bp against a 57bp entry, under its pre-committed rule; a print at 50bp or above resets the count. No discretion applies. The next supply tests are the 5-year TIPS on Friday morning and the refunding on 4 November.

4. AI hardware: from a de-rating in Asia to a leadership change in New York

Wednesday reversed Tuesday. Super Micro's guide raise (fiscal Q1 revenue $18.5–19.5bn from $14.5–15.5bn) lifted the hardware complex across time zones: KOSPI +3.3%, TAIEX +1.3%, QQQ +1.06%, Dell +5%, HPE +4%. Hong Kong (Tencent −4%, CATL −10%) and Australia's NextDC (−41% on a power-connection delay) were the exceptions, and NextDC's problem is physical infrastructure, not demand. After the bell the reports split by business model: Meta's revenue beat and a higher capex floor ($135bn) took the shares up 3.1%, while Lam Research's in-line guide took it down 7.1%, which we read as the equipment end needing an upside surprise that Meta's capex raise implies but Lam's guide did not show. CoreWeave, SoftBank and Oracle CDS remain the stress gauges (§09).

So whatV031 (Nasdaq-100 put spread) marks ≈29,822, 2.17% against it and 3.7% below its 30,932 close line; Lam's after-hours fall is the first test of whether the bounce holds. Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta's peers report on 28–29 October. Breadth is still thin: 51.8% of the S&P is above its 200-day and the replica Fear & Greed index read 22 on Tuesday.

5. Oil: the shipping war in the Gulf is widening faster than supply can respond

Wednesday was a second round trip. Brent December reached $110.85 when Iran ruled out talks, then settled about flat at ≈$108.8. The fade is the new information: TE and a Kpler-via-WSJ relay say Gulf exports are near pre-war levels and Rubio says flows are close to normal, while Kpler's own early-October count had Hormuz crude near 8.5mb/d, about 40% below normal. Those cannot both be right, and the export-data reading is single-sourced. Iraq is offering crude at discounts of up to $37 and the Oman–Dubai premium has fallen to about $4, its lowest since late July (Cornerstone, single source): these say the market is not short of Gulf crude at the margin. Options volume was a record on Tuesday, led by December $100 and $99 puts.

So whatV024 is unchanged: the residual call is in the money and the re-own band ($86.53–89.53 on two December settles) is about $19–22 lower. Put demand at $99–100 suggests the market is hedging a deal, not a closure. The EIA distillate build weakens the US diesel-shortage case at the margin. Treat vessel counts as the arbiter.

6. Credit: CCC keeps making highs while IG does not move

No new FRED data: the 20 October observations had not posted at filing, so the marks remain 19 October (IG 87bp, HY 329bp, CCC 1,310bp, a CCC series high). The stress remains concentrated in AI-linked issuers: CoreWeave 2032s near 77–78 cents (14.8% yield), SoftBank's 5-year CDS about 432bp, Oracle's 288–322bp depending on the date (S&P GMI, SED; partly single source). The thetrading.tools Fear & Greed replica's junk-demand component read 1 out of 100 on Tuesday (HYG against LQD). Wednesday's equity rally will need to show up in the 20–21 October FRED prints to count.

So whatV017 (underweight HY/CCC, High) is unmarked today and carried on 19 October. The exit (CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter) is 260bp away and the mirror (two FRED HY prints below 305bp) 24bp away. The 20 October prints are a standing action item.

Central bank watch

Where each bank stands, what is priced, and the next date in Sydney time that can move it.

Fed funds pricing by meeting, Wednesday 21 October

Current target range 3.75–4.00%. Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor stamped "Oct 21, 2026 03:55PM EDT", a pre-close snapshot; the settled post-17:00 ET read had not posted at filing. Decision 05:00 AEDT Thu 29 Oct (meeting 27–28 Oct ET).

3.75–4.00% (hold)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)4.50–4.75% (+75bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	+25bp 16 Sep, 12–0	Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout to then	October hike 16.1% (15:55 ET 21 Oct, not settled; 35.6% a week ago). ≥1 hike by 9 Dec 86.5%. Kalshi/Polymarket 12.5% for October (DeFiRate, 14:59 ET). CME FedWatch 85.1% hold (Benzinga, single source)	Hawkish; December
RBA	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP	≈41–51% for 3 Nov after Hauser: Market Index 41% (from 27%); TE 44%, December 64%; Bloomberg via ABC ≈51%. centralbank.watch 21.4% predates the speech. IB futures not obtained	Tightening bias; November live
ECB	DFR 2.50%	+25bp 10 Sep	Fri 30 Oct 00:15 (verified, ecb.europa.eu)	99% hold; December ≈85% cumulative to 2.71% (centralbank.watch, 20 Oct)	Hold, then December
BoE	3.75%	Held 17 Sep, 6–3	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	November "fully priced" (TE) / >90% (LSEG via Babypips) after CPI 3.5%. Pre-CPI cbw 95% (19 Oct)	Hawkish
BoJ	1.25%	+25bp 18 Sep, 7–2	Fri 30 Oct (meeting 29–30 Oct; boj.or.jp)	Hold expected; Reuters poll: 69% see a hike to 1.50% this quarter, ~80% of them in December	December
RBNZ	2.75%	+25bp 2 Sep	Wed 28 Oct 12:00	≈80–81% for +25bp (swaps; Tradingpedia, interest.co.nz, 21 Oct), from 56% a week earlier; December ≈50% further	Removing stimulus
BoC	2.25%	Holds in 2026	Thu 29 Oct 00:45	No verified OIS figure; UBS, Scotiabank, Oxford call a hike; RBC "close call"	Hold, hawkish risk
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Held 20 Oct (17th month)	LPR Fri 20 Nov	Fix 6.7192 vs estimate 6.6779 (21 Oct)	Leaning against CNY gains
BoK · BI	3.00% · 5.75%	BoK +25bp 27 Aug · BI held 21 Oct, deposit facility +25bp to 5.00%, RRR cut	BoK today 12:00 · BI 18 Nov	BoK: 11 of 11 (MoneyToday) expect a hold; 8 of 11 see a November hike	Holds
CBRT · CBR	37.00% · 14.00%	CBRT five holds · CBR	CBRT today 22:00 · CBR Fri 23 Oct 21:30	CBRT: 15 of 17 expect −100bp to 36% (Bloomberg HT); CBR hold expected	CBRT easing
SNB · Riksbank · Norges · Banxico · RBI	0.00 · 1.75 · 4.50 · 6.50 · 5.50%	Norges +25bp 24 Sep; RBI +25bp 7 Oct	Riksbank 4 Nov · Norges 5 Nov · Banxico 5–6 Nov · RBI 4 Dec · SNB 10 Dec	Not refreshed this edition	Mixed

Fed. The 15:55 ET read: October 83.9% hold / 16.1% hike, unchanged from Tuesday's last read and down from 35.6% a week ago; 9 December 13.5% / 73.0% / 13.5%; 27 January 6.7% / 43.2% / 43.3% / 6.8%. The settled post-17:00 ET refresh had not posted at filing. Blackout runs to the decision; the statement is 14:00 ET on 28 October with the press conference at 14:30 (05:00 and 05:30 AEDT on the 29th). The Beige Book (14 October) had oil and diesel costs in every district and AI cited in hiring restraint.

RBA. Hauser's transcript is the primary for every quote above. The diary: Bullock appears before lawmakers on Friday 23 October and speaks at UNE (text only); Hunter on 60 Minutes Sunday; Jones Monday 26 October; Senate Estimates Wednesday 28 October 11:15, the morning of Q3 CPI; the decision and SMP 3 November 14:30. The disagreement across pricing sources (41% to 51%) is wide because it is a single-morning move and none of the three is the exchange's own implied probability; we use the range.

BoE, ECB and others. UK CPI was above consensus on headline, core and services; Schroders' Rees called November "a done deal" and the CBI said a hike "will remain firmly on the table". The ECB holds on 29 October (decision 00:15 AEDT Friday 30); German debt chief Diemer said annual Bund issuance above €500bn is "the new normal". Bank Indonesia surprised by holding the BI-Rate while tightening at the deposit facility, a rupiah-defence mix. The Bank of Korea decides at noon today.

Regional briefs

United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan, China and Hong Kong, emerging Asia and LatAm.

United States

Hardware leads, the curve flattens. The S&P rose about 0.46% to ≈7,748 (derived) and is back above all four of Investing.com's moving averages (200-day 7,715, 50-day 7,734, 100-day 7,755). Super Micro, Dell and HPE led; AT&T and Netflix lagged. After the bell Meta, IBM and TI beat, Tesla beat on adjusted EPS with operating income down 56%, and Lam fell 7% on its guide. FactSet (16 Oct): 84% of reporters beat, Q3 blended EPS growth 29.0%, forward P/E 19.0. The 20-year tailed and 5s30s fell to 48bp on par. Today: claims (200k expected), Conference Board LEI, KC Fed; P&G, Honeywell, Union Pacific, Lockheed, Blackstone, American Airlines before the open. Intel reports 29 October.

Euro area

Equities up on earnings, French bonds down on politics. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 644.49 and the DAX 1.35% to its highest since 17 September on Randstad, EssilorLuxottica, SAP and Adidas; Carrefour fell about 14%. The OAT reached about 5.00% and the dedicated OAT–Bund series a one-year high of 150.8bp; Bunds sold off 2bp. Lane and Kazāks were cautious. Flash PMIs Friday (euro-area composite 52.7 expected, from 53.1); Ifo Monday; Q3 GDP and flash inflation from Friday 30 October. The ECB decides 29 October.

United Kingdom

CPI 3.5%, a hike priced. Headline, core (2.8%) and services (3.7%) all beat; motor fuels +29.8% y/y; goods inflation the highest since September 2023; input PPI 8.3%. September borrowing was £24.5bn and the year to date £97.8bn, above the OBR's path, a week before the 28 October Budget. Sterling touched about 1.34; gilts rallied about 5bp (TE, single source) and the FTSE 100 rose 0.19%. Staffing stocks rose on Randstad (Michael Page +8.4%). Bailey speaks today at 20:50 AEDT; retail sales Friday; the BoE on 5 November with an MPR.

Japan

A rebound and a soft trade print. The Nikkei rose about 0.85% to ≈64,621 after touching 65,405; the official archive puts Tuesday's close at 64,075.42. September exports grew 16.7% y/y against 20.1% expected; the deficit was ¥536.6bn. JGBs were steady near six-week lows in the 10-year after Tuesday's strong 20-year auction. USD/JPY was 158.34, below the 160 level where we read intervention risk. National CPI Friday 10:30 (core 2.1% expected); the BoJ on 30 October is expected to hold, with December the market's month.

China & Hong Kong

Hong Kong misses the rebound. The Hang Seng fell 0.9% to 23,651.87, a 15-week low, on Tencent (−4%, below HK$400) and CATL (≈−10% after weak Q3 profit; −12% in A-shares); Shanghai fell 0.6%. The PBoC fix (6.7192) was again about 413 pips weak of the Reuters estimate. Q3 GDP at 4.5% has reduced stimulus expectations; the CSRC will speed up adding yuan counters and REITs to Stock Connect; APEC finance ministers meet in Hong Kong this week. The Fifth Plenum runs 26–29 October; the rare-earth export-control suspension expires 10 November.

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Korea and Taiwan bounce. The KOSPI recovered 3.3% with foreigners buying ₩660bn; the BoK holds at noon today, with a November hike expected by most economists. The TAIEX rose 1.3%. India fell 0.2–0.3% on its return from holiday, small caps −2.4% on oil. Bank Indonesia held but tightened at the deposit facility amid an MSCI-related rupiah shock (Bloomberg headline via Tempo). Turkey's CBRT is expected to cut 100bp to 36% today. Mexico's mid-October CPI is today (3.60% expected). Brazil votes in its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October.

Australia & New Zealand

The RBA reprices November; NZ CPI lands at 08:45; NextDC shows the physical limits of the data-centre build.

The RBA after Hauser

The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year. Hauser's chat was the most hawkish Board communication since the September hike: an outlook "materially worse" than August, oil a third above the assumption, expectations the "nightmare" risk, and the Board "still finalising" its forecasts for the 3 November SMP. Pricing for 3 November moved to about 41–51% (Market Index 41%, TE 44% with December 64%, Bloomberg via ABC about 51%) from about 22% implied by Tuesday's IB settle; we did not obtain Wednesday's IB futures, so the range stands until it can be marked against the exchange. Bank calls: Goldman November to 4.85%; Betashares November; ANZ and Westpac had already called November (as at 7–8 October); CBA "live". Q3 CPI (28 October 11:30): Westpac headline 1.3% q/q, trimmed mean 0.9% q/q; TE has the trimmed mean at 3.5–3.6% y/y; September monthly CPI 4.1% expected.

Markets: a late recovery, NextDC's collapse

Equities. 8,831.3 (+0.16%), red for most of the session. Industrials +0.99%, financials +0.96% (NAB +1.05%, Westpac +0.5%, CBA +0.24%); BHP −1.55%. NextDC −41% (FY27 net revenue guide $475–500m from $615–640m; EBITDA $245–265m from $385–410m; M3 grid supply deferred to FY28; development and land acquisitions paused); SKS Technologies and Southern Cross Electrical fell with it. Beach +5.8%, Mesoblast +6%, Service Stream +5.6%, Megaport +5.1%; Telix −7.4%, Reliance Worldwide −4.8%. TDM sold about $89.5m of Guzman y Gomez at $25.55. Morgan Stanley moved NAB to underweight ($34 target). Futures: 8,866 at 08:20 Wednesday (ABC); overnight settle not obtained.

Rates and currency. ACGB 2-year ≈4.94%, 3-year ≈4.91%, 10-year ≈5.28% (TE snapshots, +5–6bp); 30-year ≈5.70%. The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.7010 (+26 pips), AUD/NZD 1.2357 (+55 pips), AUD/JPY 110.83, AUD/EUR 0.6246, AUD/CNY 4.6819, TWI 64.9 (verified). AUD/USD met sellers at its 100-day moving average in New York (investingLive).

Commodities and the China link

Iron ore was $90.86/t on 20 October (−6.8% over the month; TE). LME copper cash rose to $14,540/t with a ≈$183 backwardation to three-month (Westmetall), while COMEX eased on hopes the US drops refined-copper tariffs. Woodside's Q3 output rose 12% q/q and Beach reported record revenue; LNG exporters remain the domestic hedge against the Gulf. Lithium carbonate is near a ten-month low (CNY102,700). China's Q3 GDP of 4.5% has cut the stimulus impulse; the Fifth Plenum (26–29 October) is the next window. NextDC's power-connection delay is a reminder that Australian data-centre capacity is constrained by grid works as much as by capital.

New Zealand

The NZX 50 rose 0.95% to 13,761.29 (EBOS +5.5%, Vulcan +5.2%, Mainfreight +3.2%). NZD/USD reached its highest since 23 September (investingLive). Q3 CPI at 08:45 AEDT today, after filing: consensus 0.8% q/q and 3.8% y/y (FXStreet; Bloomberg median 3.8%), prior 1.5% and 4.1%; RBNZ 3.9%; Westpac 0.7%/3.7%, Kiwibank 4.0%, BNZ and ASB 3.9%. Swaps price about 80% for a 25bp hike on 28 October, up from 56% a week ago; Chief Economist Conway says the direction is "most likely up" but October is "wide open". A hot print narrows the RBA–RBNZ gap that V023 relies on.

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior / context	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈41–51% priced
Labour force (Sep)	−39.3k · 4.7%	+39.5k · 4.6%	Regional labour force today 11:30 · October mid-November
CPI (Q3)	—	Westpac 1.3% q/q headline · 0.9% trimmed mean	Wed 28 Oct 11:30 — V006's resolution date
Flash PMIs (Oct)	—	manufacturing 49.6 · services 51.9 · composite 51.3	Fri 23 Oct 09:00
Westpac-MI leading index (Sep)	−0.03%	unchanged	Released 14 Oct
ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y	≈4.91 · 5.28 · 5.70%	30y record 5.89% (7 Oct)	—
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD (RBA 4pm)	0.7010 · 1.2357	0.6984 · 1.2302	Daily 16:00

House views & tactical framework

Seven open. Nothing closed, no conviction changes. V030 is one par print from its stop; V025's upgrade test is written down.

Nothing fired, but one view is a print from closing. V030 (5s30s steepener) marked 48bp on 20 October par, the first of the two consecutive closes below 50bp that close it; the 21 October row posts at about 09:00 AEDT and vendor prints point to a further flattening. If it prints below 50bp, No. 034 books V030 as WRONG at that level against a 57bp entry. Five views moved in favour: V025 (OAT–Bund 150.8bp on its own series, a one-year high), V023 (AUD/NZD +55 pips to 1.2357), V006 (ASX still 1.94% in favour), V017 (unmarked; carried), V024 (flat). V031 moved against us as the Nasdaq-100 rose about 1.1%.

V025's upgrade is pre-committed, not taken. The dedicated series broke its high on one print, a day before a rating review. The ledger's habit is to write the condition first: V025 upgrades to High if the dedicated series prints at or above 150bp on two consecutive observations that include the first print after Moody's; the mirror is back to Med on two consecutive dedicated prints below 140bp.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
US 5s30s (V030)	Steepener	Low	1–3 mo	48bp on official par, 20 Oct (5y 4.94, 30y 5.42), −6bp: the first par close below 50bp. 30-year rallied while the 5-year held; 20-year auction tailed 0.9bp on Wednesday; vendor prints flatter again	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view — one of two is in; the 21 Oct row decides. A print at or above 50bp resets the count. Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on par
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	Med	1–3 mo	Dedicated series 150.8bp (20 Oct), +8.5bp: a one-year high (prior 146.9bp). Derived ≈156bp on 21 Oct (OAT 5.001%, Bund 3.439%). ≈+57bp from a ≈94bp entry. Moody's late Fri Paris; protests Sat; PLFSS vote 27 Oct	CLOSE, UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (≈71bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 29 Oct or an explicit backstop. NEW, PRE-COMMITTED: upgrade to High on two consecutive dedicated prints ≥150bp including the first after Moody's; mirror back to Med on two below 140bp
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	Unmarked today: FRED's 20 Oct observations had not posted. Carried at 19 Oct: IG 87, HY 329, CCC 1,310bp (series high). AI-linked CDS (CoreWeave, SoftBank 432bp) still the stress	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter (260bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: back to Med on two consecutive FRED HY prints below 305bp (24bp away). Next: FRED 20–21 Oct
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	+1.94% in favour: 8,831.3 against 9,005.9. Hauser's hawkish turn and NextDC against a late bank bid	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (0.78% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct
Nasdaq-100 (V031)	Put spread (hedge)	Low	1–2 mo	≈29,822 on 21 Oct (QQQ +1.06%): −2.17% against the view since entry (29,187.55). Super Micro-led hardware rally; Lam −7.1% and Meta +3.1% after hours	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 close it (3.7% above the mark)
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	1.2357 on the RBA 4pm table (21 Oct, verified), +0.34% against ≈1.2315; +55 pips on Hauser. RBA November ≈41–51% against RBNZ ≈80% for 28 Oct	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (107 pips away). Dates: NZ CPI today 08:45; AU CPI and RBNZ Wed 28 Oct
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	December ≈$108.82 on 21 Oct (Newsquawk settle; Investing $108.75); 20 Oct settle $108.79 verified. Range $107.70–111.32; record put volume at $99–100	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$19–22 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms

Scorecard. Seven open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. If V030 closes on Wednesday's par row it will be the 15th wrong call.

Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit at High conviction (V017), underweight Australian equities and long AUD against NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024) and a Nasdaq-100 put spread (V031). Wednesday paid France, AUD/NZD and (on Tuesday's par) cost the steepener; the AI bounce cost the hedge. The one-risk concentration we flagged — higher real rates squeezing long-duration and leveraged assets — is now being expressed through France and credit rather than through the US long end, which is rallying relative to the belly.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

No new CFTC report until Saturday morning; tails are expensive while the VIX is not.

CFTC data are futures-only positions as of Tuesday 13 October (released Friday 16 October; the 20 October positions publish Saturday ≈06:30 AEDT). Longs and shorts are verified from cftc.gov; nets and weekly changes are this desk's arithmetic. TFF leveraged funds and legacy/managed-money series are never mixed.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC TFF leveraged funds — as of Tue 13 October
UST 2y · 5y · 10y	−1,367,408 · −2,104,391 · −2,205,937	−109,924 · +23,176 · −66,152	Asset managers long 2y +1.80m and 10y +2.90m; consistent with basis exposure, which the data cannot prove
Ultra 10y · bond · ultra bond · SOFR 3M	−335,858 · −154,020 · −715,729 · −2,245,507	−16,797 · +35,658 · +10,528 · +108,209	Long-end short-covering at the margin
E-mini S&P · E-mini NQ (209742)	−408,726 · −11,593	+6,361 · +7,619	Asset managers long S&P +915,835
AUD · NZD · JPY · EUR · GBP	+50,591 · −11,619 · −33,673 · −68,001 · +10,313	−3,542 · −10,832 · −8,630 · −23,740 · −2,119	AUD the main G10 long, supports V023. Legacy non-commercial AUD −117,299 and JPY +50,207: opposite signs, both real
WTI managed money · COMEX gold managed money	+40,574 · +107,089	−13,024 · −3,898	Oil length cut into a $108 Brent; silver +5,619, copper +61,058
Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted
BofA Flow Show / EPFR (week to 14 Oct)	US equities +$39.1bn · cash −$53.1bn	USTs +$3.6bn (16th week)	Newsquawk summary, single source. Next Friday
ICI money funds (week to 14 Oct)	$7,923.08bn	−$40.46bn	Verified (ICI). Next release Thursday US time
US spot crypto ETFs (Farside)	20 Oct BTC +$23.2m · ETH −$26.1m	19 Oct BTC +$526.7m	ETH fifth straight outflow; 21 Oct not posted. CoinShares and Lipper not obtained
Surveys, volatility and breadth
VIX · VIX3M (20 Oct) · futures	17.31 · 18.99 (ratio 0.91)	Nov 18.49 · Dec 18.70	Contango; ≈16.8 late Wednesday
SKEW · Fear & Greed replica (20 Oct)	160.4 · 22	SKEW 98th pct (1y) · F&G extreme fear, third session	Tails bid, at-the-money vol not: favours spreads over outright puts. Junk-demand component 1/100
Put/call (19 Oct) · AAII (14 Oct)	Total 0.87 · bulls 38.7% / bears 41.6%	equity 0.55 · spread −2.9	Next AAII today US time
% above 200-day (19 Oct) · Hindenburg (20 Oct)	51.8% · inactive (3 of 4)	new highs 96 / lows 208; McClellan +12.96	Breadth improving from a low base
BofA FMS (October)	Cash 3.9% · Bull & Bear 8.1 · tech net +37% OW	consumer discretionary −34% (lowest since Jul 2008)	Rotation trigger: 10-year at 5.9%. Crowded trade: long semis 45% (single source)
FactSet (16 Oct)	Fwd P/E 19.0× · Q3 EPS +29.0%	84% beat; surprise +2.6% (5y avg 7.5%)	Verified. Energy +127.6%, IT +65.1%
Sell-side (19–20 Oct)	BofA: October hike; MS Wilson year-end 8,000	BofA vol: "defensives can bubble too"	Summaries of paywalled notes, single source

The week ahead

Today and tomorrow in full, then the sessions after. AEDT first, US Eastern alongside; AEDT = ET + 15h until 1 November.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Thursday 22 October
Thu	08:45	Wed 17:45	NZ CPI (Q3) q/q · y/y — V023's test	0.8% · 3.8%	1.5% · 4.1%	H
Thu	≈09:00	Wed 18:00	US Treasury par curve, 21 Oct row — decides V030		5s30s 48bp	H
Thu	11:30	Wed 20:30	AU regional labour force			L
Thu	12:00	Wed 21:00	Bank of Korea	3.00%	3.00%	M
Thu	17:45 · 20:50	02:45 · 05:50	France INSEE business climate · BoE Bailey	96	96	M
Thu	22:00	07:00	Turkey CBRT · earnings before the open: P&G, Honeywell, Union Pacific, Lockheed, Blackstone, American Airlines, Valero, Nasdaq	36.00%	37.00%	M
Thu	23:00 · 23:30	08:00 · 08:30	Mexico mid-Oct CPI · US initial · continuing claims	3.60% · 200k · 1,720k	3.42% · 199k · 1,710k	M
Fri	01:00 · 02:00	Thu 10:00 · 11:00	Euro-area consumer confidence (flash) · US LEI · KC Fed manufacturing	−17 · −0.1% · 18	−16.5 · −0.1% · 20	L
Fri	≈07:00	Thu 16:00	Earnings after the close: Newmont, Western Digital, Deckers, Spotify, Bloom Energy · 5-year TIPS auction 08:00			L
Friday 23 October
Fri	09:00 · 10:30	Thu 18:00 · 19:30	AU flash PMIs · Japan national CPI (core · headline) · Bullock before lawmakers	— · 2.1% · 2.3%	51.3 comp. · 1.7% · 1.9%	H
Fri	17:00	02:00	UK retail sales (Sep) m/m	−0.1%	0.5%	M
Fri	18:15–19:30	03:15–04:30	Flash PMIs: France, Germany, euro-area composite, UK	EZ comp. 52.7	53.1	H
Fri	21:30	06:30	Russia CBR	14%	14%	L
Sat	00:45 · 01:00 · early	Fri 09:45 · 10:00 · evening	US flash PMIs · UMich final (1-yr exp. 4.7%) · Moody's on France (Aa3 negative) · CFTC COT · French protest day	55.4 / 57.8 · 46.3	55.9 / 58.8 · 46.3	H
The sessions after
25–30 Oct	—	—	Europe clocks change and Brazil runoff Sun 25 · China Fifth Plenum 26–29 · Ifo Mon 26 20:00 · France PLFSS vote Tue 27 · US durables and Conference Board confidence 27 (dates differ by calendar) · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · Microsoft, Meta peers, Alphabet ≈28–29 · US Q3 GDP and Sep PCE Thu 29 23:30 (GDP 3.1%, core PCE 3.1% y/y expected) · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · Amazon and Intel Fri 30 ≈07:00 · BoJ Fri 30 · euro-area Q3 GDP Fri 30 21:00			H
31 Oct – 13 Nov	—	—	China PMIs Sat 31 · US DST ends Sun 1 · Apple Mon 2 (single source) · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 · Riksbank Wed 4 · US refunding Wed 4 · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · US payrolls Sat 7 00:30 · China rare-earth suspension expires 10 Nov · US CPI Wed 11			H

⚠ H/M/L ratings are this desk's judgement. Consensus from Trading Economics, Forex Factory and Newsquawk (21 Oct). Changes since Wednesday's edition: FOMC and ECB timings confirmed against the issuers (Thu 29 Oct 05:00 and Fri 30 Oct 00:15 AEDT); US existing home sales are not on either calendar this week; Intel confirmed for 29 October ET. From 26 October Europe moves to CET (AEDT = CET + 10h); from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	RBA hikes on 3 November	Q3 CPI 28 Oct; Bullock Fri; Senate Estimates 28 Oct	≈41–51% (Market Index, TE, Bloomberg via ABC)	ACGB 3y through 5%; AUD higher; rate-sensitive equities lower	V023 (long AUD/NZD); V006
2	French downgrade and a disorderly OAT	Moody's late Fri Paris; protests Sat; PLFSS 27 Oct		OAT–Bund toward 160–170bp; BTP contagion (≈116bp); euro lower	V025
3	AI-financing stress reaches US mega-caps	Lam's after-hours −7%; MSFT/GOOGL 28–29 Oct; CoreWeave, SoftBank, Oracle CDS		Tech is the FMS's largest overweight (+37%); KOSPI's −3.7% on Tuesday is the template	V031; long CDX HY protection
4	Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY and IG	CCC 1,310bp series high; FRED 20–21 Oct		HY toward 340bp; private-credit marks	V017 (High)
5	Gulf escalation hits Saudi export infrastructure	Mines, Houthi claims on Yanbu/Shaybah; US carrier group en route	Polymarket Hormuz deal: 31 Oct 8.2% · 30 Nov 25.5% · 31 Dec 32.5% (21 Oct, via FinanceFeeds)	Brent through $112; diesel tighter; hike repricing	V024's residual call
6	Fed hikes in October	28 Oct; claims, PMIs; BofA calls it	16.1% (Investing.com, 15:55 ET); 12.5% (Kalshi, Polymarket)	Front-end reprice; dollar bid; flatter curve	2-year payers; V017
7	The long end sells off on supply	20-year tailed 0.9bp; refunding 4 Nov; FMS rotation trigger 10y 5.9%		Bear steepening would rescue V030 — if it is still open	V030 (48bp, one print from its stop)
8	NZ CPI beats and AUD/NZD reverses	08:45 today; RBNZ 28 Oct	RBNZ +25bp ≈80% (swaps)	V023 closes on two RBA-table prints below 1.2250 (107 pips away)	The view's own stop
9	Yen intervention	USD/JPY 158.3; Japan CPI Fri; BoJ 30 Oct		A move toward 150; carry unwind	Short-dated USD/JPY puts
10	Midterms and policy shock	3 Nov; Russia waiver; Iran strike timing after the election	House D 91%; Senate D 66% (Kalshi/Polymarket via DeFiRate, 21 Oct 14:54 ET)	Tariff, sanctions and fiscal reversal risk	Q4 collars

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	≈7,748	7,734 (50d) · 7,715 (200d) · 7,610 · 7,500	7,755 (100d) · 7,800–7,845	MAs Investing.com (21 Oct, intraday); 7,610/7,500 and 7,800–7,845 Morgan Stanley via TradingKey (single source)
Nasdaq-100	≈29,822	29,611 (20d, 19 Oct) · 29,188 (16 Oct) · 28,963	30,154 (200d) · 30,185 (50d) · 30,932 (V031 closes)	MAs Investing.com 19 Oct (stale); ATH 31,616.5 (6 Oct)
UST 5s30s · 2s10s	48bp · 33bp (par, 20 Oct)	50 (V030 closes on two par prints below) · 41 (24 Sep)	54 (19 Oct) · 65 (upgrade, with 30y par > 5.70%)	Official par
UST 10y	5.12% (par, 20 Oct)	5.07 · 5.00	5.24 · 5.36	Vendor ≈5.15% Wednesday
OAT–Bund	150.8bp (dedicated) · ≈156bp (derived)	140 (upgrade mirror) · 80 (V025 closes)	160 (TE intraday) · 150 (upgrade line, two prints)	The dedicated series is the mark
ACGB 3y · 10y	≈4.91 · ≈5.28%	4.85 · 5.20	5.00 · 5.41	TE snapshots
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	101.80 · 1.1227 · 158.34	101.50 · 1.1100 · 157.70	102.88 · 1.1300 · 160	Intervention risk at 160 (our reading)
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.7010 · 1.2357 (RBA)	0.6896 (15 Oct low) · 1.2250 (V023 closes)	100-day MA (≈0.702, investingLive) · 1.2380 (15 Oct RBA)	Bases never blended
Brent (Dec)	≈$108.8	$105.95 (20 Oct low) · $100/99 (put strikes) · $86.53–89.53 (V024)	$110.85 (21 Oct) · $111.99 (20 Oct high)	Settles
Gold · Silver	$4,112 · $57.01	$4,104.5 (21 Oct low) · $4,096 (14 Oct)	$4,142.8 · $4,190.7 (19 Oct high)	Kitco
S&P/ASX 200	8,831.3	8,806.7 (16 Oct) · 8,719.7 (15 Oct)	8,845.7 (19 Oct) · 8,866 (SPI indication) · 8,900 (V006 closes)	Two closes above 8,900 needed
KOSPI · TAIEX · Nikkei	5,736 · 46,888 · ≈64,621	5,493 (20 Oct low) · 46,293 · 64,075	5,816 (21 Oct high) · 47,108 (16 Oct) · 65,405 (21 Oct high)	Session highs and prior closes
IG / HY / CCC OAS	87 / 329 / 1,310bp (19 Oct)	CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints)	HY 331 (16 Oct) · CCC 1,310 (series high)	FRED
Bitcoin	≈$84,170	$81,273 (overnight low) · $80,750	$84,262 (12 Oct high) · $86,000	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was rejected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:10 AEDT Thursday while the US session was still open; under the Tuesday–Friday protocol the US-close block was fetched last, from about 07:35 AEDT. The AP tabulation for Wednesday was indexed (KRMG, WTOP) but neither page could be read, and a guessed syndication URL failed, so US cash closes are derived from closing-bell percentages applied to AP's verified Tuesday closes and cross-checked against settled ETFs (SPY/DIA within about 5 and 12 points); they are labelled derived. The Fed Rate Monitor's latest read at filing is stamped "Oct 21, 2026 03:55PM EDT", a pre-close snapshot, not the settled refresh. The official par row for 20 October posted overnight and marks V030 at 48bp; the 21 October row had not posted at 07:40 AEDT. NZ Q3 CPI (08:45 AEDT) is after filing. Every figure was retrieved on 21–22 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 032

(1) MATERIAL — US cash closes for Tuesday 20 October corrected to AP (via Yahoo): S&P 500 7,712.57 (No. 032: 7,714.52, −1.95), Dow 52,495.88 (52,513.98, −18.10), Nasdaq 26,424.82 (26,421.84, +2.98), Russell 2,773.42 (≈2,774, confirmed). No trigger depended on these.
(2) Brent December 20 October settle is $108.79 (−$0.76), not ≈$108.88 (Investing close matching Reuters, IBTimes "Tuesday settle", and Reuters' +$2.06 to $110.85 on Wednesday). WTI December 20 October $97.82, not ≈$97.62. V024's mark restated.
(3) Nikkei 225 20 October official close 64,075.42 (Nikkei Indexes), not ≈64,053.
(4) Stoxx 600 20 October close 638.64 (Sharecast, investing.com), not ≈636.7 (TE).
(5) Sensex and Nifty: No. 032 carried 73,852.90 and 22,888.95 as Monday's closes; Wednesday's moves tie to those levels.
(6) Discharged from Wednesday's list: official par for 20 October (V030 48bp); the AP tabulation for 20 October; the OAT–Bund dedicated row for 20 October (150.8bp, high broken); Brent December 20 October settle; RBA 4pm for 21 October; ASX close vs 8,900; Tesla, Meta, IBM, TI and Lam results; Hauser's remarks; UK CPI; Netflix results. Not discharged: official par for 21 October; FRED for 20 October; the settled Fed Rate Monitor; the AP tabulation for 21 October; NZ CPI (after filing).

Conflicts and how they were resolved

US closes: closing-bell index percentages (S&P +0.46%) vs SPY (+0.53%); the index percentage is used and SPY shown; a 24/7 Wall St ticker (S&P 7,769.60, +0.25%) contradicted its own closing-bell figures and is rejected as a futures quote. Brent 21 October: Newsquawk settle $108.82 (+$0.03) vs Investing close $108.75 (−$0.04); the reported settle is used, both shown. WTI: $97.15 vs $97.18. RBA November: 41% (Market Index) vs 44% (TE) vs ≈51% (Bloomberg via ABC) vs 21.4% (centralbank.watch, pre-speech); the post-speech range is used. OAT–Bund: dedicated 150.8bp (20 Oct) vs derived ≈156bp (21 Oct) vs France-Epargne ≈153bp (20 Oct midday); the dedicated series is the mark. Gilt 10y: TE's gilt page (−4bp) and Bund page (+4.5bp) disagree; ≈−5bp from levels, single source. Meta EPS consensus: $3.56 (Bloomberg) vs $5.74 (Benzinga) vs $6.67 (Zacks), on GAAP vs adjusted bases; we report the result without calling a beat on EPS. Hormuz flows: Kpler 8.5mb/d (week to 7 Oct, Reuters) vs 24mb/d Gulf exports (Kpler via WSJ, newsletter relay) vs Rubio "near pre-war"; not reconciled, all attributed. PBoC fix: 6.7192 (Tradingpedia, investingLive) vs a 6.7172 Newsquawk headline of ambiguous date; 6.7192 used. Hong Kong vs Asia: no conflict, a genuine divergence. ASX: TE's 8,800.3 is a CFD and is rejected.

Single-source and unverified items

Nasdaq Composite closing percentage · Russell and Nasdaq-100 (derived) · VIX late print · CAC level (derived), FTSE MIB and IBEX · CSI 300 · ACGB yields (TE snapshots) · gilt moves · AUD/USD NY · USD/MXN change · IRGC tanker-mine claims (rejected by CENTCOM) · Houthi claims on Yanbu and Shaybah · State Department ordered-departure report · FT report on Netanyahu's shelved campaign · Cornerstone options and Oman–Dubai data · Gulf export figures · SoftBank, Oracle and data-centre CDS levels · Polymarket Hormuz ladder · BofA Flow Show and FMS crowded-trade share · thetrading.tools gauges · Anthropic S-1 report (not used).

Not obtained

AP tabulation for 21 October (indexed, unreadable) · official par for 21 October · FRED 20 October OAS · settled Fed Rate Monitor · VIX close · TOPIX close · HS Tech level · TSMC move · SPI overnight settle · ASX IB and bond futures · NZ CPI actual (after filing) · BoE post-CPI numeric probability · Bailey's 21 October remarks · BoC OIS pricing · IBM and TI after-hours prints · Tesla guidance commentary · Farside 21 October rows · Lipper · CoinShares · SpotGamma levels.

Friday's first verification targets

(1) Official par for 21 October — closes or resets V030. (2) FRED for 20–21 October (V017). (3) OAT–Bund dedicated row for 21 October and the first print after Moody's (V025's upgrade test). (4) NZ CPI and the RBA 4pm for 22 October (V023). (5) AP tabulations for 21–22 October. (6) ASX IB futures for the post-Hauser November probability. (7) Brent December 21–22 October settles from two sources.

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the timestamps shown and may be revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. Views are analytical framings with invalidation conditions set in advance, logged and scored in the project's views ledger. No. 033, Thursday 22 October 2026.