The bottom line
- CPI lands at 23:30 AEDT tonight with October hike odds at 24% and two Fed presidents endorsing more tightening. The Fed Rate Monitor, stamped "Oct 13, 2026 03:45PM EDT" (near-close, not the settled refresh), has 24.1% for an October hike against 19.5% in its own prior-day column, and December at 9.5% / 69.4% / 21.1% for hold / one / two hikes, so 90.5% for at least one hike by December (prior day 83.5%). New York's Williams said one more hike this year is appropriate and none is needed in 2027 "as of now" (Investrade, single source); Richmond's Barkin said "inflation is enduring, acting makes sense" (FXStreet). Waller was the softer voice: higher long-term yields are doing "a little bit of the work" (briefs.co, single source). Consensus for September: +0.6% m/m and 3.6–3.7% y/y headline, +0.2% m/m core; the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 0.53% / 3.60% headline and 0.20% core. Headline is energy and is in the price; a 0.3% core is what moves October.
- The memory sell-off spread to every chip market on Tuesday: KOSPI −5.46%, Nikkei semiconductors −6.65%, ASX tech −4.4%, ASML −2.7%. The KOSPI fell to 6,035.35 (JoongAng Daily; ties to Monday's close), triggering a sell-side sidecar; SK hynix fell 10.09% and Samsung 7.39%, and foreigners sold ₩4.51trn ($3.35bn). It is down about 8.9% in two sessions. The trigger is CXMT's plan for 4F² server DRAM by year-end, a claim with no yields or volumes (JoongAng), plus Broadcom CEO Hock Tan calling AI spending "a casino". Tokyo lost 1.82% to 67,777.52 while the broader JPX-Nikkei 400 rose 0.28%; TAIEX fell 1.95% (TSMC −1.97%). Wall Street absorbed it: the S&P closed 7,805.45 (−0.02%), the Composite −0.15%, QQQ −0.32%, with Micron about −5%. ASML reports at 16:00 AEDT today and TSMC on Thursday; the NDX/SOX hedge we said we would write after TSMC is now the most urgent open item.
- The four banks reported and the market sold the lenders, not the traders: Citi −5.6%, Wells −3.1%, JPMorgan −0.9%, Goldman −0.2%. From the 8-K filings: JPMorgan EPS $5.57 against $5.90–5.93 consensus, its first miss in about three years (FICC and IB, a $658m securities loss); provision $2.74bn and card NCO rate 2.91% from 3.34%. Goldman EPS $17.01 against about $13 on record-type equities revenue (+72%). Citi EPS $2.85 with a $369m reserve build; Wells EPS $1.87 with provisions $1.03bn (+51% y/y) and an NII miss. Read here: no consumer-credit break (Forbes: "broad-based credit deterioration is not evident"), but reserve builds at Citi and Wells and a flatter curve hurt the retail-heavy lenders. FRED's 9 October HY OAS printed 311bp (−4bp), so V017's downgrade mirror (two prints below 305bp) is 6bp away. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report tonight.
- The RBA's minutes keep a further hike on the table without a path; the ASX finished flat at 8,783.9 as tech fell 4.4% and banks rose 1.4%. The minutes say the Board "decided unanimously to raise the cash rate" because upside inflation risks "had materialised", that oil is "significantly higher than had been assumed", and that it will act "including increasing the cash rate target further if required" (rba.gov.au). November pricing was ≈26–28% before the minutes; no post-minutes tracker read was obtained. NAB business confidence fell to −13 (from −9), its lowest since May (TE). The ASX 200 closed 8,783.9 (+0.7 points) (ShareTrader; TE agrees); December SPI settled the day session at 8,818 (+15), verified on the ASX report. AUD/USD fell to 0.6961 on the RBA's 4pm table but recovered to about 0.6983 in New York as the dollar index fell 0.4%. Labour force is Thursday 11:30 (consensus +20k, 4.6%).
- The OAT rallied 7bp on Tuesday, but the dedicated spread series that marks V025 caught up with Monday first: 139.5bp, +7bp. ideal-investisseur's OAT–Bund printed 139.5bp for 12 October (OAT 4.86%, Bund 3.46%), against 132.5bp on 9 October; the one-year high is 146.9bp. On Tuesday TE has the OAT down to 4.836% and the Bund 3.458%, a same-page derived ≈137.8bp that we do not substitute for the series. ECB chief economist Lane said the rise in long-term rates "constitutes a material tightening" (Newsquawk), which the market read as dovish; the TE path now has the deposit rate at 2.72% by December. The Assembly's revenue debate continues to the vote on Tue 20 Oct; RN said it would vote against the PS rejection motion, making its adoption unlikely (LCP).
- Oil eased on the Russian diesel waiver while WTI held up; gold was flat and bitcoin recovered to about $83,300. Monday's December Brent ICE settle is now corroborated at $106.65 (Rigzone; Investing's restated row). Tuesday's vendor closes span $105.69–106.31 (Investrade, TE, Investing), so roughly −0.3% to −0.9%; no ICE settle obtained. WTI November closed about $94.1 (+0.4%; TE 94.18, Investrade 94.14, Buckhead 94.09), narrowing Brent–WTI to about $11.6–12.2. The US waived sanctions on Russian diesel to April 2027 (300kt in October rising to 1Mt in December), against Houthi threats to Aramco's Dammam headquarters and Riyadh. The IEA's Oil Market Report is today. Gold spot $4,162.50 (Kitco, 15:04 ET, −0.1%); bitcoin ≈$83,100–83,600 after about $800m of liquidations on Monday night.
Overnight recap
United States: flat index, banks and chips down, bonds up
AP's tabulation: the S&P 500 fell 1.79 points (−0.02%) to 7,805.45, about 13 points below its 6 October record close of 7,818.93; the Dow fell 180.45 (−0.35%) to 51,670.10; the Nasdaq Composite fell 41.52 (−0.15%) to 27,204.38; the Russell 2000 fell 11.11 (−0.40%) to 2,783.37. Week to date the S&P is −0.08%, the Dow +0.03%, the Composite −0.59% and the Russell −0.84%. Settled ETFs agree (SPY −0.01%, DIA −0.33%, QQQ −0.32%, IWM −0.43%; stockanalysis, 16:00 ET stamps). Investrade's 16:09 ET recap has the S&P −1.59 points; AP governs. A Nasdaq-100 cash close was not obtained; QQQ is the proxy. The VIX was 15.24 (+0.03) on Cboe's page (single source).
Movers (wire reports, closes where stated): Citi −5.60%, Wells Fargo −3.10%, JPMorgan −0.92% and Goldman −0.23% (settled closes; Goldman gave back a ≈4% pre-market gain). Micron fell about 5% and Western Digital and Seagate were weak on the CXMT story. UnitedHealth rose 3–5% after adjusted EPS of $4.69 against $4.06 and a raised 2026 guide (single source); J&J fell 5–7% despite a beat, on devices. Bumble rose 56% on a $1.3bn take-private at $6.05; Six Flags fell about 14% after a ride incident; Domino's fell 3.8% on a cut sales outlook. Apple made a record high. Meta and refiners (Valero, PBF, Marathon) were among the leaders. Reuters' midday breadth had Nasdaq decliners leading 1.9:1 with 33 new highs against 344 new lows.
Rates and the Fed. Cash Treasuries reopened after Columbus Day and rallied. Vendor closes (TE): 2y 4.80%, 5y 5.01%, 10y 5.22% (Investrade 5.223%, −2.1bp), 30y 5.57%, against Friday's par 4.80 / 5.02 / 5.24 / 5.60. That is a long-end-led flattening: 5s30s about 56bp on vendor levels, which is a provisional read only; the official par row had not posted at filing. NFIB small-business optimism fell to 97.9 against 98.0 expected (TE), with inflation now the second-ranked problem at 20%. Williams, Barkin and Waller spoke (see 01). The Fed calendar lists the October meeting as 27–28 October; the decision is 14:00 ET Wednesday 28 October, 05:00 AEDT Thursday 29 October.
Europe: flat close after a one-week high in the morning
The Stoxx 600 closed 635.26 (−0.06%) (TE table, Irish Times; ties to Monday's 635.65) after touching 639.54 in the morning (Reuters via Business Recorder). Chips sold off from midday: ASML −2.7%, STMicro about −4.6%, Infineon −2% to −4.8%. Defensives and banks held up: AstraZeneca +2.1%, Novartis +1.6%, HSBC +1.5%, SocGen +1.8%. Givaudan rose 9.4% on a Q3 organic-sales beat; LSEG fell 4.7% after confirming talks to buy Octus; LVMH closed about −0.1% after its Q3 miss (Irish Times; TE has −1.0%). The CAC 40 fell 0.07% to 7,827.63 (Boursorama, 18:05; verified), the FTSE 100 fell 0.06% to 10,650.33, and the DAX about −0.07% to ≈25,260 (TE narrative; single source). The IBEX and FTSE MIB each carry two figures on TE that both tie, so no level is printed. Bonds rallied: OAT −7bp to 4.836%, Bund −1bp to 3.458%, BTP −2bp to 4.563% (TE). There was no ZEW and no UK labour report on Tuesday; both are on Tue 20 Oct.
Asia: the memory rout
The KOSPI fell 5.46% to 6,035.35 (JoongAng; arithmetic ties), its fifth straight loss; it opened −3.1% and hit about 5,911 intraday, and a sell-side sidecar curbed programme trading. SK hynix fell 10.09% to ₩1.44m, Samsung 7.39% to ₩232,000 and SK Square 13.0%; foreigners net sold ₩4.51trn while retail bought ₩2.23trn. KRW closed 1,345.1 at 15:30. Tokyo reopened from Sports Day: the Nikkei fell 1.82% to 67,777.52 (Nikkei Indexes; ties) with the Nikkei semiconductor index −6.65% (Kioxia −13.3%, Tokyo Electron −7.2%, SoftBank Group −8.5%; TE), while the JPX-Nikkei 400 rose 0.28% on financials. Japan's September PPI rose 6.8% y/y against 7.6% expected, which helped the yen. The TAIEX fell 1.95% to 48,341.31 (Focus Taiwan; ties), TSMC −1.97% to NT$2,490. Shanghai rose 0.10% to 3,800.86 and the Hang Seng about 0.3% to ≈24,345 (TE). India rallied: Sensex +1.54% to 73,033.78 and Nifty +1.60% to 22,721.95 on IT earnings (HCLTech +8.3%) and lower oil. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7298 (TE; no Reuters estimate found), stronger again.
Geopolitics since Tuesday morning
Iran and Hormuz. UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unidentified projectile exiting Hormuz on Monday, crew safe, no name or flag (IranWire; single source). The IRGC Navy said vessels sailing with AIS off will be treated as hostile and threatened US ships approaching the strait (Tasnim via Newsquawk). Tankermap shows 2 transits on 12 October and a seven-day average of about 1.1 a day (single source; its "~21/day" figure is static boilerplate); Kpler counted 7–10 commodity vessels a day on 6–7 October. Iran and Oman agreed corridor coordinates on 7 October; an Al Jazeera headline says they are "close to implementing" a temporary passage deal, but the IRGC's Naqdi says the southern Omani-coast route will be blocked. No reopening is confirmed. A Newsquawk headline reports Netanyahu discussing renewed war on Iran with Trump (reported, single source).
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The toll from the Riyadh airport attacks is 14 dead across 10–11 October (Al Jazeera), with flights still halted and most major carriers suspended. The Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi oil sites in Sanaa and at Ras Isa in Hodeidah on Tuesday; the Houthis told staff to leave Aramco's Dammam headquarters, King Khalid airport and a Riyadh refinery, and promised a "harsh" response. Saudi Civil Defence later said danger had passed in the Eastern Province after booms near Dhahran (cause unverified). There is no confirmed US strike in Yemen. This is the Yemen theatre; nothing new from Maysan in Iraq.
Russia–Ukraine. Trump says the "energy ceasefire" holds while admitting violations "on both sides"; Zelenskyy says Russia hit at least six energy sites after the announcement, and Lavrov said Ukraine has "not earned a respite". The Russian diesel deal (300kt October, 500kt November, 1Mt December; product sanctions suspended to April 2027) drew bipartisan objections in Washington and opened a rift with Europe, which approved its largest sanctions package since 2022. US–China: the trade truce runs to 10 January 2027 per Bessent's 23 September extension (Startup Fortune); one Tech Times piece still cites 10 November, flagged. The IMF briefed its October WEO in Bangkok; TE reports 2026 global growth raised to 3.1% (single source).
This morning's setup
December SPI settled Tuesday's day session at 8,818, 34 points above the cash close; the night session was not obtained, so there is no verified implied open. The S&P was flat after the settle, but Asia opens into a second day of chip selling elsewhere. China's CPI and PPI land at 12:30, trade about 14:00, ASML at 16:00, and US CPI at 23:30.
Market dashboard
Week to date: change since Friday 9 October's close
| Equities | Close | 1d | wtd | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | −0.02% | −0.08% | ⭐ Verified (AP tabulation). SPY −0.01% (16:00 stamp). Investrade's −1.59 points rejected for AP's −1.79 |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,670.10 · 27,204.38 | −0.35% · −0.15% | +0.03% · −0.59% | AP. DIA −0.33%, QQQ −0.32% (Nasdaq-100 cash close not obtained) |
| Russell 2000 · VIX | 2,783.37 · 15.24 | −0.40% · +0.03 | −0.84% · — | Russell AP (IWM −0.43%). VIX Cboe page, single source; VIX3M 17.93 (12 Oct) |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | 635.26 · ≈25,260 | −0.06% · ≈−0.07% | +0.59% · ≈+0.69% | Stoxx corroborated (TE table, Irish Times). DAX TE narrative, single source; TE table 25,267 does not tie and is rejected |
| CAC 40 · FTSE 100 | 7,827.63 · 10,650.33 | −0.07% · −0.06% | +0.31% · +0.93% | CAC verified (Boursorama 18:05). FTSE corroborated (Irish Times, TE). IBEX and FTSE MIB unresolved (two tying TE figures each); not printed |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 67,777.52 · — | −1.82% · — | −1.82% | ⭐ Verified (Nikkei Indexes). Semiconductor index −6.65%; JPX-Nikkei 400 +0.28%. TOPIX not obtained |
| Shanghai · Hang Seng | 3,800.86 · ≈24,345 | +0.10% · ≈+0.3% | −0.33% · — | TE; both tie to priors. CSI 300 contradictory on TE (4,275.68 vs 4,235); HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 6,035.35 · 48,341.31 | −5.46% · −1.95% | −8.92% · −1.97% | ⭐ Both verified by arithmetic tie (JoongAng; Focus Taiwan). TE's TAIEX 48,368 does not tie and is rejected. Week-to-date vs 8 Oct |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 73,033.78 · 22,721.95 | +1.54% · +1.60% | ≈+0.8% · +0.89% | TE; both tie to Monday's closes. IT led on HCLTech's results |
| S&P/ASX 200 · All Ords | 8,783.9 · ≈8,921.5 | +0.01% · −0.17% | +0.77% · — | ⭐ Corroborated (ShareTrader; TE "steady"). All Ords derived (−15.5 pts). SPI Dec day settle 8,818 (+15), verified (ASX EOD); night session not obtained |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST par, 9 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.80 · 5.02 · 5.24 · 5.60% | no row 12–13 Oct | ⭐ Verified (Treasury TextView, re-checked ≈08:10 AEDT: table ends 9 Oct). 5s30s 58bp, 2s10s 44bp |
| UST vendor, 13 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.80 · 5.01 · 5.22 · 5.57% | ≈0 · −1 · −2 · −3bp | TE levels vs 9 Oct par (mixed basis). 10y corroborated (Investrade 5.223%, −2.1bp). 5s30s ≈56bp, provisional only |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.44–5.45 · 5.93% | 0 to +1bp | TE; headline and data disagree on direction. 19-year high 5.51% (8 Oct) |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.458 · 4.836 · 4.563% | −1 · −7 · −2bp | TE. Bund lowest since 9 Sep. BTP–Bund ≈110bp |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 139.5bp (12 Oct) | +7.0bp | ⭐ V025's mark (ideal-investisseur; OAT 4.86 / Bund 3.46). One-year range 59.0–146.9bp. TE same-page derived 13 Oct ≈137.8bp, not substituted |
| JGB 10y · 30y | 3.00 · 4.03% | −2 · −3bp | TE; near a three-week low |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y | 4.89 · 5.30 · 5.77% | −1 · −3 · −3bp | TE curve; Market Index 14:05 agrees within 1–2bp. 10y three-week low |
| Canada 10y | 3.87% | −1bp | vs Friday (Monday was Thanksgiving) |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS (9 Oct) | 83 · 311 · 1,253bp | +1 · −4 · +1 | ⭐ Verified (FRED .txt files). 12 Oct values identical (holiday carry, not a true print). 13 Oct not posted. ConvexTrade lags at 8 Oct |
| FX | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.17 | ≈−0.4% | TE snapshot (untimed); leg rebuild 102.18 (derived ✓). TE also prints 102.24 |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | 1.1189–1.1200 · 1.3257 | +0.3–0.4% · ≈+0.4% | TE; GBP single source |
| USD/JPY | 158.31–158.39 | ≈−0.2% | Corroborated (TE; Investing 158.36, range 157.84–158.69). Japan PPI miss helped the yen. No MoF remarks found |
| AUD/USD | 0.6961 (RBA) · ≈0.6983 (NY) | −0.26% (RBA) · ≈+0.4% (NY) | ⭐ RBA 4pm verified. NY corroborated (TE 0.69843; Investing prior close 0.6984). Bases never blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2453 (RBA) · 0.5603–0.5613 | +0.05% · ≈+0.3% | ⭐ RBA 4pm verified (AUD/JPY 110.17, TWI 64.7). NZD two TE reads, 10 pips apart |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4210 · 0.8325 | −0.5% · −0.3% | TE, single source |
| USD/CNY · fix | 6.6925 · 6.7298 | −0.03% | Fix TE only (strongest since Feb 2023; no Reuters estimate). Wed fix 12:15 AEDT |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN | 95.29 · 1,339.8–1,345.1 · 18.37 | −0.4% · weaker KRW · +0.6% | TE. KRW Seoul close 1,345.1 (JoongAng) vs TE 1,339.8; direction unresolved overnight |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | ≈$105.7–106.3 | ≈−0.3 to −0.9% | Vendor closes: Investrade 105.69, TE 105.72, Investing row 106.31 (range 104.36–106.75). Monday ICE settle $106.65 corroborated (Rigzone; Investing restated 106.74 → 106.65) |
| WTI NOVEMBER | ≈$94.1–94.2 | ≈+0.4% | TE 94.18, Investrade 94.14, Buckhead 94.09 (18:48 UTC). Monday settle 93.74. Brent–WTI ≈$11.6–12.2 |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $3.26–3.29 · €86.74 | ≈+3% · ≈+2.8% | TE, Buckhead. TTF vs TE's own prior €84.35 (our carried €83.16 was a Friday level) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,162.50 | −0.1% | ⭐ Kitco bid 15:04 ET; TE $4,159.50 corroborates |
| Silver · Platinum | ≈$59.1–59.3 · $1,672.40 | ≈−1.6% · −1.25% | TE (internally inconsistent on silver); Kitco ratio implies $59.14 |
| Copper LME cash · COMEX | $14,822 (12 Oct) · $6.68/lb | +0.9% · −0.35% | Westmetall (verified; cash–3M backwardation $164.5, stocks −1,750t). COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% · Newcastle coal | $90.83 (12 Oct) · $149.35 | +0.2% · +0.3% | TE; coal undated. DCE iron ore −0.9% Tue. Lithium carbonate CNY111,650 (−3.3%) |
| Bitcoin | ≈$83,100–83,600 | ≈+0.7 to +1.3% | CoinGecko $83,090 (≈19–20 UTC); CoinDesk $83,587 (14:15 UTC). Range $81k–84k on Tuesday; ≈$800m liquidations |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,508 · $107.83 · $1.37 · $740.93 | ≈+0.5% | CoinGecko. Total cap $2.91tn; BTC dominance 57.4% |
| Spot ETF flows | BTC −$65.4m · ETH −$85.4m (12 Oct) | 13 Oct not posted | Farside. BTC 12 Oct may be partial (only IBIT printed). 9 Oct BTC +$21.1m |
Conventions: 1d is Tuesday's session; wtd is against Friday 9 October (KOSPI and TAIEX against 8 October). The Treasury row is official par; the vendor row is shown separately and never used to mark a view. FX is New York close unless marked RBA 4pm; the two bases are never blended. Oil for Tuesday is a vendor close, not an exchange settle. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. The long end is priced off supply and term premium; this week it rallied
Cash Treasuries reopened on Tuesday and the long end rallied: vendor closes have the 30-year at 5.57% (about −3bp on Friday's par) and the 10-year at 5.22% with the 2-year unchanged at 4.80%. The move was global: OAT −7bp, JGB 30-year −3bp, ACGB 10-year −3bp, Bund −1bp. Two named inputs line up with it: oil eased on the Russian diesel waiver, and the October FMS (published Tuesday; Benzinga summary) has a disorderly rise in yields as the biggest tail risk (31%) with "short Treasuries" the second most crowded trade (27%, from 18%), while leveraged funds are net short 6.76m Treasury contracts (CFTC, 6 October). FMS respondents' weighted 10-year "rotation trigger" into bonds is 5.9%. Waller said long yields are doing "a little bit of the work"; ECB's Lane said the same about Europe. Read here as a positioning-led rally into CPI rather than a change in the supply story.
2. AI hardware: the memory leg broke in Asia and Wall Street has not followed yet
Tuesday turned Monday's CXMT headline into a two-day rout in Asian memory: the KOSPI is down about 8.9% from Thursday's close, SK hynix fell 10.1% on Tuesday alone, Kioxia 13.3%, Tokyo Electron 7.2%, and the Nikkei semiconductor index 6.65%. ASX tech fell 4.4%, its worst day since April, with NextDC and Megaport down 5–6%. ASML fell 2.7% and STMicro about 4.6% in Europe. Wall Street's damage was contained: QQQ −0.32% and the S&P flat, with Micron about −5% and Apple at a record. The narrative inputs are CXMT's 4F² DRAM plan (no yields or volumes disclosed; past timelines slipped), Broadcom's Hock Tan ("a casino") and Ray Dalio ("classic bubble"; TE). In the October FMS, an AI bubble is the second-ranked tail risk (23%); the #1 crowded trade was not retrieved. SKEW was 155.1 on 12 October (96th percentile, 1 year).
3. Credit: the stress at the bottom of the scale is now reaching HY
FRED's 9 October observations finally posted: IG 83bp (+1), HY 311bp (−4), CCC 1,253bp (+1), the CCC series high. The 12 October values are identical to 9 October across all three series, consistent with a holiday carry rather than a print. The bank results gave a mixed read on credit. JPMorgan's card NCO rate fell to 2.91% from 3.34% and Citi's US card NCLs fell 4%, but Citi built $369m of reserves on its macro outlook and Wells raised provisions 51% y/y to $1.03bn with commercial NCOs rising. The market sold the retail lenders (Citi −5.6%, Wells −3.1%). BofA's Bull & Bear indicator is 8.1 (sell) and the Fear & Greed replica's junk-bond-demand component fell 43 points on the week to 34.
4. Oil: the physical risk is in the price and the weekend added to it
A quieter day. December Brent's Monday ICE settle is corroborated at $106.65; Tuesday's vendor closes were about $105.7–106.3. WTI rose about 0.4% to ≈$94.1, narrowing Brent–WTI by about a dollar. The bearish input was the US waiver on Russian diesel (300kt in October, 500kt in November, 1Mt in December; product sanctions suspended to April 2027): European gasoil fell, though 300kt is about 2.25mb, under an hour of world demand. The bullish inputs: the Houthis' evacuation warning to Aramco's Dammam headquarters and a Riyadh refinery, Saudi-led strikes on Houthi oil sites at Ras Isa and Sanaa, and Hormuz traffic still at about 1–10 vessels a day depending on the provider. OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth estimate to 0.40mb/d (WPC Riyadh remarks; MOMR document not found). The IEA's October OMR is today.
5. Australia: the hike has landed on mortgages; the minutes say the door stays open
The RBA minutes (verified) show the September hike was unanimous, a hold was "briefly considered" on house prices, the Middle East and lagged tightening, and the Board will move "including increasing the cash rate target further if required". The two new pieces: oil prices are "significantly higher than had been assumed in the forecasts", with larger indirect effects expected, and staff questioned whether the unemployment rate consistent with target is higher than assumed. The minutes record market pricing at the meeting of about 15bp more by year-end. The market barely moved: the 3-year ACGB fell 1bp to 4.89% and the 10-year 3bp to 5.30% with global bonds. NAB confidence fell to −13 and conditions to −1, the employment index at a five-year low (TE). The ASX was flat, with banks +1.4% offsetting tech −4.4% and materials −2.0%.
6. Europe: the spread widened on Monday and the bonds rallied on Tuesday
The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 139.5bp for 12 October, 7bp wider than Friday and 7bp below its one-year high (146.9bp). On Tuesday OATs rallied 7bp against 1bp in Bunds on TE's benchmarks, which would narrow it again when the series posts. Lane's "material tightening" remark and a softer oil price drove European yields lower. In Paris the revenue debate runs to Monday; the Part 1 vote is Tue 20 Oct, PLFSS on 27 October and the full PLF on 17 November, with ordinances possible after 17 December. The PS rejection motion was debated Tuesday evening; its result was not obtained, but RN said it would vote against it. BofA says French spreads could take the Stoxx 600 down 7% to 580 by Q2 2027 (secondary summary).
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing: implied probabilities by meeting, Tuesday's near-close read against the page's prior-day column
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct | October hike 24.1% (15:45 ET Tue; page prior day 19.5%). December 9.5% hold / 69.4% one / 21.1% two, so 90.5% for at least one (prior 83.5%). Williams: one more hike this year appropriate | Hawkish, December |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP | ≈26–28% for 3 Nov (centralbank.watch, 12 Oct, pre-minutes; TE ≈30% on 9 Oct); Dec ≈54% cumulative; Feb ≈92%. No post-minutes read | Tightening bias |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 (meeting 28–29 Oct) | Path ≈2.72% by December (TE, 13 Oct), trimmed as oil eased; no current October probability. Lane: higher long rates a "material tightening". Lagarde today 13:10 and 19:30 | December over October |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | ≈91% for November (centralbank.watch, 9 Oct; stale). Breeden 14:30, Bailey 16:30, Pill 17:00 today. Labour Tue 20 Oct; CPI Wed 21 Oct | Hawkish |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct (meeting 29–30 Oct; Outlook Report) | ≈12–25% October (iTiger OIS vs derivatives via VT Markets, both 6–7 Oct; stale); December/January favoured. September PPI 6.8% vs 7.6% expected | Gradual; December favoured |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp 2 Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 | ≈58% for a hike (TE, 8 Oct; stale, single source) | Removing stimulus |
| BoC | 2.25% | Seven holds in 2026 | Thu 29 Oct 00:45 | Hold 87.7% (Polymarket via CryptoSlate, 13 Oct 05:03 UTC). Macklem today 17:05 | Hold |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% · 7d 1.40% | Unchanged | Fix daily 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct | Tuesday fix 6.7298 (TE), strongest since Feb 2023; Friday's was 357 pips weak of the estimate. Goldman calls CNY 20–25% undervalued | Leaning against CNY gains |
| RBI · BoK | 5.50% · 3.00% | RBI +25bp Oct | BoK Thu 22 Oct · RBI 4 Dec | RBI: "orderly INR"; curbs on a record $77bn hedging rush (investingLive). India CPI 5.54% (TE, single source) | Tightening |
| SNB · Riksbank · Norges | 0.00% · 1.75% · 4.50% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep | Riksbank Wed 4 Nov · Norges Thu 5 Nov · SNB 10 Dec | Not refreshed this edition; Schlegel Thu 15:30 | Mixed |
| Banxico · BCB · BI · CBRT | 6.50% · 13.75% · 5.75% · 37.00% | BCB −25bp 16 Sep | BI Wed 21 Oct · CBRT Thu 22 Oct · Banxico 6 Nov | Not refreshed this edition | Holds |
Fed. The October read rose to 24.1% intraday Tuesday, back to the prior week's level, on a day when bonds rallied: the move came from Fed speakers and CPI positioning, not yields. Williams's "one more hike this year" is the most senior endorsement of a December move so far; Barkin's "acting makes sense" leans toward October; Waller's remark that higher long rates are doing some of the work leans the other way. The page's prior-day column (19.5%) does not match the 23.0% we quoted from its 12 October 16:45 ET stamp; see §13. Bowman speaks from Bangkok at 20:40 AEDT, the Beige Book is Thursday 05:00 AEDT, and Chairman Warsh appears with the IMF's Georgieva at 14:30 AEDT Friday before the blackout.
RBA. The minutes are summarised in §04 and §07. They are hawkish in content (oil above forecast assumptions, a possible upward revision to the unemployment rate consistent with target) and neutral in guidance. The RBA's diary has no Board speech this week; the Annual Report is Thursday afternoon, Kent speaks on 18 and 19 October and Hauser on 21 October.
Elsewhere. Lane's comment is the clearest sign the ECB sees the bond sell-off as doing its job; Patsalides said "everything could change by December". Greene's remark that the appropriate rate "should be higher than the current 3.75%" is on TE but its date is unconfirmed. Japan's finance minister Katayama, Bessent and Ueda are all in Bangkok for the IMF/World Bank meetings to 18 October; no joint FX language yet. USD/JPY at 158.35 is about 1% from the 160 level TE associates with past intervention.
Regional briefs
United States
Earnings season opened with a bank miss and a market that did not care at the index level. The S&P is 0.17% below its record close with breadth thin: 50% of members above their 200-day average (9 Oct) and 85 new highs against 278 lows (12 Oct; thetrading.tools). FactSet (9 Oct): Q3 blended growth +29.6%, financials only +3.0%, forward P/E 19.1×, 84% of early reporters beating. Today: CPI, BofA, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, ASML; Thursday PPI (+0.5% m/m expected), retail sales (+0.3%, control +0.5%), Empire, Philly Fed and claims. Politics: Democrats about 90% for the House and 62% for the Senate on Kalshi/Polymarket (DeFi Rate, 13 Oct); the White House committee's Cook hearing is 5 November; replacement Section 301 tariffs of 10–12.5% apply to 60 economies after the Supreme Court struck IEEPA tariffs in February (AP).
Euro area
Flat stocks, firmer bonds. The Stoxx 600 gave back a morning high to close −0.06%; chips and luxury fell, defensives and banks rose. Lane's "material tightening" line and a softer oil price took the Bund to its lowest since 9 September and the OAT down 7bp. The October ZEW is Tue 20 Oct (consensus 25.1 against 34.7), not this week; final HICP is Friday (3.8%, core 2.5%). The EU summit opens Thursday with Ukraine funding "front and centre"; the EU approved its largest sanctions package since 2022 (about 1,569 listings). Lagarde speaks twice today and Schnabel on Thursday.
United Kingdom
Gilts held near the high. The 10-year closed about 5.44–5.45% and the 30-year 5.93% while Bunds and OATs rallied. About 91% is priced for a November hike (9 Oct, stale). Bailey speaks at 16:30 AEDT today and again Thursday and Friday; August GDP is Thursday 17:00 AEDT (−0.1% m/m expected). The IFS puts the gap the 28 October Budget must fill at £35bn. The UK blamed the IRGC for an airbase incident; Iran called it a false flag.
Japan
Chips down, financials up, inflation softer. The Nikkei fell 1.82% on its return from holiday, all of it in semiconductors (−6.65%); the JPX-Nikkei 400 rose 0.28%. September PPI slowed to 6.8% y/y against 7.6% expected, its slowest since May; Ueda says the pace of hikes depends on pass-through to consumer prices, and markets lean to December or January over October. The JGB 10-year eased to 3.00% and the 30-year to 4.03%. Core machinery orders Thursday 10:50 AEDT.
China & Hong Kong
Data day. CPI and PPI at 12:30 AEDT (CPI 1.0% y/y; PPI consensus 4.4–4.5% against 3.8%), trade about 14:00 (exports +25.5%, surplus $117–118bn), credit data by about Thursday (new loans ≈CNY975bn), Q3 GDP Monday 13:00 AEDT (prior 4.3%). Shanghai rose 0.10% and the Hang Seng about 0.3% on banks and Geely; Shenzhen fell to its lowest in over a year (TE, single source). An EU–China deal could more than halve Chinese hybrid exports to the EU, which hit lithium names. The US–China truce runs to 10 January 2027 (one source still says 10 November; flagged).
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Korea is the epicentre. The KOSPI's 5.46% fall included a sidecar and ₩4.51trn of foreign selling; the BoK meets 22 October. Taiwan fell 1.95% with TSMC −1.97% ahead of Thursday's results (Q3 revenue already reported at NT$1.49trn; LSEG net profit estimate NT$740.8bn). India rallied 1.5–1.6% on IT results and lower oil, though CPI rose to 5.54% (single source) and the RBI is defending the rupee near 95.3. The peso weakened about 0.6% to 18.37 (TE). Brazil's runoff is 25 October.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA: hawkish content, no path
The minutes of the 28–29 September meeting (released 13 October, verified) record a unanimous 25bp hike to 4.60% because upside risks flagged in August "had materialised" and a timely response would better balance the Board's objectives. A hold was briefly considered on falling house prices, the Middle East and lagged tightening; staff scenarios found house-price effects on spending modest. Inflation "remained too high"; oil is "significantly higher than had been assumed in the forecasts"; unit labour costs are above target-consistent growth; staff questioned whether full employment sits at a higher unemployment rate. The trade-weighted index is about 5% higher this year, adding a little restraint. Guidance: further hikes "if required", no explicit path. Pricing before the minutes: ≈26–28% for 3 November, ≈54% by December (centralbank.watch, 12 Oct). Bank calls (carried, single source): Westpac and ANZ 4.85% from November; NAB 4.60% peak.
Markets: flat index, two-speed tape
Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,783.9 (+0.7, +0.01%) (ShareTrader; ties to 8,783.2), the All Ords about −15.5 points. Seven of eleven sectors rose: utilities +1.8% and financials +1.4% (+3.0% since Friday); information technology −4.4% to 1,647.6, its worst day since April, and materials −2.0%. Movers (TE, Market Index, intraday where marked): the big four banks +1.3–2.3%, AGL +4.1%, Ampol +1.6%, Lovisa +4.3%; BHP −1.8%, Fortescue −2.9%, South32 −3.6%, Qantas −2.9% on ending its Air New Zealand codeshare, Zip −6.7%, NextDC and Megaport −5–6%, lithium (Vulcan −7%, PLS, IGO, Mineral Resources −4.6–5.5%) on the EU hybrid-import cap. Futures: December SPI settled the day session at 8,818 (+15; high 8,834, low 8,765) (ASX EOD, verified); the night session was not obtained.
Rates and currency. ACGB 3-year 4.89% (−1bp), 10-year 5.30% (−3bp, a three-week low), 30-year 5.77% (TE). The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.6961 (−18 pips), AUD/NZD 1.2453 (+6), AUD/JPY 110.17, TWI 64.7. In New York AUD/USD recovered to about 0.6983 as the dollar index fell 0.4%.
Data, housing and the China link
Data. NAB September: confidence −13 (from −9 revised; lowest since May, seventh straight negative), conditions −1, employment index at a five-year low, capacity utilisation 82.3% (TE; conditions single source). Westpac leading index today 11:00. Labour force Thursday 11:30: consensus +20k and 4.6% (CommSec), after August's +39.5k. Housing. Cotality's preliminary clearance for 10–11 October was not found for a second edition; the last final reading was 45.4% for the week to 4 October. China. Iron ore printed $90.83 on 12 October (−6.9% m/m; TE) and DCE ore fell 0.9% Tuesday. China's CPI, PPI and trade data at 12:30 and ≈14:00 today are the miners' test; Q3 GDP is Monday.
New Zealand
NZD/USD rose about 0.3% to 0.560–0.561 after touching its lowest since April 2025 (TE). The NZX 50 carries three conflicting TE prints near 13,756–13,763 and is not quoted. The RBNZ decides Wed 28 Oct with an MPR (≈58% for a hike on 8 Oct, stale); Q3 CPI is Thu 22 Oct 08:45 AEDT (prior 1.5% q/q, 4.1% y/y). Qantas is ending its domestic codeshare with Air New Zealand from April 2027. The general election is in November.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈26–28% priced (pre-minutes) |
| RBA minutes (Sep meeting) | Released 13 Oct | Further hikes "if required"; no path | Next minutes after 3 Nov |
| NAB business confidence · conditions (Sep) | −13 · −1 | −9 (rev.) · lowest since May | October survey, November |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) | 80.4 (−4.7%) | Six-month low; released 6 Oct | November survey |
| Westpac leading index | — | −0.04% | Today 11:00 |
| Labour force (Sep) | — | +39.5k, 4.6% | Thu 15 Oct 11:30 · consensus +20k, 4.6% |
| Auction clearance (final, capitals) | 45.4% | w/e 4 Oct | Preliminary 10–11 Oct not obtained |
| Quarterly CPI (Q3) | — | Prior 0.6% q/q; trimmed mean 3.6% | Wed 28 Oct 11:30 — V006's resolution date |
| ACGB 10y · 30y | 5.30% · 5.77% | 30y record 5.89% on 7 Oct | — |
House views & tactical framework
Nothing fired. Two of Tuesday's three dark marks came back: the dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 139.5bp for 12 October (V025, +7bp in favour) and FRED posted HY 311bp for 9 October (V017, 4bp against, 6bp from the downgrade mirror). The official par row for 13 October had not posted at filing, so V030 stays at its last verified 58bp and is named as unmarked; vendor levels near 56bp are shown but not used. V006 is unchanged at +2.47% in favour, V023 gained 6 pips on the RBA table, and V024's underlying settled $106.65 on Monday. We have still not opened the NDX/SOX hedge: Tuesday's memory sell-off strengthens the case, and our pre-stated entry is after TSMC on Thursday with its own trigger.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| US 5s30s (V030) | Steepener | Low | 1–3 mo | UNMARKED: last official par 58bp (9 Oct: 5y 5.02%, 30y 5.60%), +1bp against a 57bp entry. The 13 Oct par row had not posted at filing. Vendor levels (5y 5.01%, 30y 5.57%) put it near 56bp, a provisional read we do not use as a mark. Tuesday's rally was led by the long end, the wrong kind for the view. FMS: short Treasuries is the second most crowded trade (27%) | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (8bp away on par; ≈6bp on vendor). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par. Next mark: 13 Oct par row; CPI tonight |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | 139.5bp on the dedicated series (12 Oct), +45.5bp from a ≈94bp entry (+7bp on the day). Tuesday's OAT rally (−7bp vs Bund −1bp on TE) points to a narrower next print. Lane's dovish remark is the main risk; the 20 Oct revenue vote and Moody's (23 Oct, unverified) are catalysts | UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (59.5bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct or an explicit backstop signal |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED 9 Oct: IG 83bp, HY 311bp (−4), CCC 1,253bp (series high). 12 Oct values are a holiday carry. Banks: Citi built $369m of reserves, Wells provisions +51% y/y, JPM card NCOs lower; Citi −5.6%, Wells −3.1%. BofA Bull & Bear 8.1 (sell) | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (203bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: back to Med if HY prints below 305bp on two consecutive FRED observations (6bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +2.47% in favour: 8,783.9 against 9,005.9 (unchanged). Banks (+1.4%) held the index up while tech fell 4.4% and materials 2.0%. NAB confidence −13; the minutes keep a hike on the table | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (1.3% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct; labour force Thursday first |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2453 on the RBA 4pm table (13 Oct), +1.12% from ≈1.2315; +6 pips on the day. The RBA minutes keep a hike open; NZD is near an 18-month low. Shares its Australian driver with V006 | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (203 pips away). Dates: AU jobs Thu, NZ CPI Thu 22 Oct, RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December ICE settle $106.65 on Monday (corroborated); Tuesday ≈$105.7–106.3 (vendor). The Russian diesel waiver eased products; Houthi threats to Aramco sites and a ≈1–10/day Hormuz count hold the floor. IEA OMR today | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$17 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Scorecard. Six open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. No change since Monday.
Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit at High conviction (V017), against Australian rate-sensitive equities and long AUD against NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). Tuesday was mildly against it: the long-end rally works against V030 and is likely to narrow V025's next print, and HY tightened 4bp. Its uncovered risk is unchanged and grew on Tuesday: an AI-hardware equity sell-off with no hedge on, which Asia has now delivered for two sessions. Tonight's CPI is the single largest input to four of the six views.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are as of Tuesday 6 October (released Friday 9 October); the next report (13 October positions) is Saturday 06:30 AEDT. TFF leveraged funds and legacy non-commercials are different series and disagree in sign on JPY, GBP and AUD; never mix them. Gauges are as of the 12 October close unless marked.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Fund Manager Survey — October (published Tue 13 Oct; 185 managers, $512bn, surveyed 2–8 Oct; Benzinga summary) | |||
| Cash · equities · bonds | 3.9% · net 44% OW · net 37% UW | cash unch · from 49% OW · from 48% UW | Cash Rule still a sell signal (≤4%). Equity overweight cut 5 points; bond underweight cut 11 |
| Biggest tail risk · crowded trade | Disorderly yields 31% · AI bubble 23% | "Short Treasuries" #2 crowded at 27% (from 18%) | The #1 crowded trade was not retrieved (long semis in Jul–Sep). A second write-up gives 161 managers / $453bn; 185 / $512bn used |
| Rates expectations · rotation trigger | Net 1% expect higher long rates · 10y 5.9% | from net 15%; lowest since May 2025 | 68% would rotate from stocks to bonds by 6%; 19% say "already there" |
| CFTC — positions as of Tue 6 October | |||
| CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs | −6,759,832 | −182,897 on the week | Shorts added in 2s, 5s and 10s, covered in bonds and ultras. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove |
| E-mini S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100 mini | LF −415,087 · LF −19,212 | AM +906,615 · legacy NC +58,123 | NDX: TFF and legacy disagree in sign |
| FX — TFF LF · legacy NC | AUD +54,133 · −98,588 · JPY −25,043 · +62,325 | legacy built shorts in all majors | Legacy dollar length; DXY legacy NC +12,011 |
| WTI (managed money) · gold (legacy NC) | +53,598 · +210,335 | −25,994 · −8,297 | Speculators cut oil and gold length into the rally |
| Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA Flow Show (8 Oct) | Cash +$166.4bn | largest since April 2020 | UST +$16.2bn; financials −$3.0bn. Bull & Bear 8.1 ("sell"). Finvaulta summary |
| ICI money funds (w/e 7 Oct) · long-term funds (w/e 30 Sep) | $7,963.55bn · −$1.97bn | +$72.27bn · domestic equity −$7.33bn | Verified (ICI). Taxable bonds +$4.14bn |
| US spot crypto ETFs | BTC −$654.5m · ETH −$576.8m (6–12 Oct) | 13 Oct not posted | Farside (derived five-session sums). CoinShares and Lipper not retrieved |
| Sentiment, volatility and breadth | |||
| VIX · VIX3M (12 Oct) | 15.21 · 17.93 | ratio 0.85; contango 130 days | Oct VIX future 16.77, Nov 17.60. Tuesday close 15.24 (Cboe, single source) |
| CBOE SKEW (12 Oct) · put/call (9 Oct) | 155.1 · 0.82 | 96th pct 1-yr · 9-day EMA 0.84 (29th pct) | Cheap at-the-money vol, expensive tails |
| AAII (w/e 7 Oct) · Fear & Greed replica (12 Oct) | 40.3 / 39.0 · 38 (Fear) | bears −14pp in 3 wks · 45 a week ago | Junk-bond demand component 34 (−43 w/w); cash-ETF flows 4 |
| % above 200-day (9 Oct) · highs/lows (12 Oct) | 50.0% · 85 / 278 | mean 65.1% | Hindenburg 3 of 4 conditions, not triggered; McClellan −1.9 |
| FactSet (9 Oct) | Fwd P/E 19.1× · Q3 EPS +29.6% | 10-yr avg 19.1× | Verified. Energy +121%, IT +65%, financials +3.0%. Bottom-up target 9,290.58 |
| Prediction markets (13 Oct) | House D ≈90% · Senate D ≈62% · 10y ≥6% by YE 7% | DeFi Rate; Polymarket via Benzinga | Kalshi Fed odds not obtained (API blocked) |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 14 October — China CPI and trade · ASML · IEA · US CPI | ||||||
| Wed | 11:00 · 12:15 | Tue 20:00 · 21:15 | AU Westpac leading index · CNY fix | −0.04% · 6.7298 | L | |
| Wed | 12:30 | Tue 21:30 | CN CPI · PPI (Sep) y/y | 1.0% · 4.4–4.5% | 0.8% · 3.8% | H |
| Wed | 13:10 · ≈14:00 · 14:30 | Tue 22:10 · 23:00 · 23:30 | ECB Lagarde (CNN) · CN trade (time tentative) · BoE Breeden | exports +25.5% · $117–118bn | +25% · $119.1bn | M |
| Wed | 16:00 · 16:30 · 17:00 | 01:00 · 01:30 · 02:00 | ASML Q3 · BoE Bailey · BoE Pill · DE WPI · BoC Macklem 17:05 | ASML EPS $12.19 (TipRanks) | H | |
| Wed | ≈19:00 · 19:30 | ≈04:00 · 04:30 | IEA Oil Market Report (date confirmed, time not) · Lagarde (Atlantic Council) · DE 30y auction | H | ||
| Wed | 20:40 · ≈21:30 | 05:40 · pre-mkt | Fed Bowman (Bangkok) · Bank of America · Morgan Stanley · BlackRock · State Street | BAC $1.10 · MS $2.93 · BLK $14.32 | H | |
| Wed | 23:30 | 08:30 | US CPI (Sep) headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · y/y | +0.6% · 3.6–3.7% · +0.2% · 2.4–2.5% | +0.4% · 3.4% · +0.3% · 2.4% | H |
| Thursday 15 October — Beige Book · Australian jobs · TSMC · UK GDP · US PPI and retail sales | ||||||
| Thu | 03:15 · 04:30 · 05:00 | Wed 12:15 · 13:30 · 14:00 | ECB Schnabel · Fed Barkin · Fed Beige Book | M | ||
| Thu | 10:50 | Wed 19:50 | JP core machinery orders | +2.5% | −3.7% | L |
| Thu | 11:30 | Wed 20:30 | AU labour force (Sep) employment · unemployment · RBA Annual Report after 15:00 | +20k · 4.6% | +39.5k · 4.6% | H |
| Thu | day | — | TSMC Q3 (time unconfirmed) · CN credit (new loans · TSF · M2; tentative) · G7/G20 finance ministers, Bangkok · EU summit opens | TSMC NP NT$740.8bn (LSEG) · ≈CNY975bn | CNY60bn | H |
| Thu | 17:00 · 17:45 · 18:30 | 02:00 · 02:45 · 03:30 | UK GDP (Aug) m/m · BoE Greene · BoE Bailey · EZ IP 20:00 | −0.1% · EZ IP +0.1% | +0.4% · −0.1% | M |
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US PPI m/m · core · retail sales · control · claims · Empire · Philly Fed | +0.5% · +0.3% · +0.3% · +0.5% · 195k · 3.2 · 26.5 | +0.4% · +0.2% · +1.2% · +1.4% · 197k · 7.6 · 37.8 | H |
| Friday 16 – Saturday 17 October | ||||||
| Fri | 03:00 · 07:30 | Thu 12:00 · 16:30 | EIA weekly petroleum (holiday-shifted) · Fed Hammack | −3.2m | M | |
| Fri | 11:30 · 13:00 · 13:30 | Thu 20:30 · 22:00 · 22:30 | RBA conference papers · BoE Bailey · Bundesbank Nagel | L | ||
| Fri | 14:30 | Thu 23:30 | Fed Chairman Warsh with IMF MD Georgieva, Bangkok | H | ||
| Fri | 20:00 · 23:30 | 05:00 · 08:30 | EZ final HICP · core · US import prices | 3.8% · 2.5% · +0.6% | 3.8% · 2.5% · +0.7% | M |
| Sat | 00:15 · 06:30 · 07:00 | Fri 09:15 · 15:30 · 16:00 | US industrial production · CFTC COT (13 Oct) · TIC · Fed blackout begins · October opex Fri ET | +0.4% · 76.5% | 0.0% · 76.3% | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 18–23 Oct | — | — | RBA's Kent Sun 18 and Mon 19 · CN Q3 GDP Mon 19 13:00 (prior 4.3%) · PBoC LPR Tue 20 · UK labour Tue 20 17:00 · DE ZEW Tue 20 20:00 (25.1 vs 34.7) · French revenue vote Tue 20 · RBA's Hauser Wed 21 09:30 · UK CPI Wed 21 17:00 · BI Wed 21 · NZ Q3 CPI Thu 22 08:45 · BoK, CBRT Thu 22 · AU flash PMIs Fri 23 09:00 · Japan CPI Fri 23 10:30 · Euro flash PMIs Fri 23 · Moody's France Fri 23 (unverified) | H | ||
| 25–30 Oct | — | — | Europe DST ends and Brazil runoff Sun 25 · China Fifth Plenum 26–29 · Israel election, French PLFSS vote Tue 27 · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 · US ECI Fri 30 23:30 | H | ||
| Nov–Jan | — | — | US DST ends Sun 1 Nov · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 Nov · Riksbank Wed 4 · Cook hearing and BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · French PLF vote 17 Nov · US funding 11 Dec · French ordinance window from 17 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan | H | ||
⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column does not render. Consensus from ForexFactory (12 Oct) unless marked; US CPI y/y consensus is 3.6% (ForexFactory) or 3.7% (Admiral, nowflation's Street column); core y/y 2.4–2.5%. China PPI consensus 4.4% (ForexFactory) vs 4.5% (TE). Bank and ASML EPS consensus from TipRanks via TheStreet. China trade and credit times are tentative. From 26 October Europe moves to CET; from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A hot core CPI revives October | US CPI tonight 23:30 AEDT; PPI and retail Thu; Warsh Fri 14:30 | Oct hike 24.1% (futures, 15:45 ET Tue) | Core ≥0.3% pulls the hike forward; 2-year and dollar up; a bear flattener against V030 after Tuesday's long-end rally | 2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry |
| 2 | AI-hardware de-rating reaches US indices | KOSPI −8.9% in two sessions; ASML today; TSMC Thu | FMS: AI bubble #2 tail risk (23%) | IT carries much of FactSet's 29.6% Q3 growth; the book has no equity hedge | NDX or SOX put spreads after TSMC (SKEW 155 makes outright puts dear) |
| 3 | Disorderly rise in long yields | 10-year back toward 5.31–5.36%; FMS rotation trigger 5.9% | FMS top tail risk (31%); 10y ≥6% by YE 7% (Polymarket) | Equity multiple compression; FMS has short Treasuries the #2 crowded trade, so a squeeze is the other tail | V030 steepener; low duration |
| 4 | Gulf escalation spreads beyond Hormuz | Houthi warnings to Aramco Dammam and Riyadh; IRGC AIS-off rule; Netanyahu–Trump (reported) | — | Brent back through Monday's $107.33 high; products first | V024's residual call; product-crack optionality |
| 5 | Credit stress reaches the banks | BofA, MS tonight; regional banks Thu–Fri; CCC 1,253bp | — | Citi and Wells reserve builds extend to others; HY back above 315bp | V017 (High); CDX HY protection |
| 6 | Australian jobs or CPI force November | Labour force Thu 11:30; Q3 CPI 28 Oct | RBA Nov ≈26–28% (ASX tracker, pre-minutes) | A strong print lifts 3-year yields; banks have led the ASX so far | V006; AU 3-year payers |
| 7 | French budget and ratings | Revenue vote Tue 20 Oct; Moody's Fri 23 Oct (unverified); PLF 17 Nov | — | Spread back toward the 146.9bp high; an ECB signal narrows it | V025 |
| 8 | Yen intervention | USD/JPY 158.35; Katayama, Bessent, Ueda in Bangkok to 18 Oct | — | A joint statement or operation near 160; yen carry unwind into risk assets | Short-dated USD/JPY puts |
| 9 | China data disappoint | CPI/PPI and trade today; credit Thu; Q3 GDP Mon 19 | — | Iron ore −6.9% m/m; hits ASX materials and AUD | AUD/CNH; materials underweight inside V006 |
| 10 | Fed independence and the midterms | Midterms 3 Nov; Cook hearing 5 Nov | House D ≈90%, Senate D ≈62% (Kalshi/Polymarket) | BofA flags a Democratic sweep as a >10% equity downside catalyst (secondary) | Steepeners; Q4 collars |
| 11 | October options expiry in a thin tape | Opex Fri 16 Oct ET; VIX expiry Wed 21 Oct | — | Breadth 50% above 200-day; 278 lows vs 85 highs; cheap ATM vol can reprice fast | VIX call spreads |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | 7,796 (20d) · 7,786 (50d) · 7,741 (100d) · 7,702 (200d) | 7,818.93 (record close) · 7,850 | MAs Investing.com on the 12 Oct close; RSI 53.3 |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈30,570 (QQQ-derived) | 30,067 (200d) | 30,691 (100d) · 30,779 (20d) · 30,932 (50d) | Below all but the 200-day; RSI 38.9 (12 Oct) |
| UST 5s30s · 2s10s | 58bp par (9 Oct) · 44bp | 50 (V030 closes) · 56 (vendor 13 Oct) | 64 (7 Oct) · 65 (V030 upgrades, with 30y par > 5.70%) | No par row 12–13 Oct at filing |
| UST 10y · 30y (vendor 13 Oct) | 5.22 · 5.57% | 5.20 · 5.50 | 5.31 (5 Oct par) · 5.70 (V030 leg) | FMS rotation trigger 5.9% on the 10y |
| OAT–Bund | 139.5bp (12 Oct) | 80 (V025 closes) · 132.5 (9 Oct) | 146.9 (one-year high) | TE same-page 13 Oct ≈137.8bp |
| ACGB 10y · 30y | 5.30% · 5.77% | 5.25 · 5.70 | 5.41 · 5.89 (record) | Three-week low on the 10y |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 102.17 · 1.1200 · 158.35 | 102.10 · 1.1155 · 157.84 | 102.60 · 1.1250 · 160 | Monday's 18-month DXY high 102.60 |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.6961 (RBA) · 1.2453 (RBA) | 0.6933 · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.6996 · 0.7000 · 1.2500 | NY range 0.6968–0.6996 (Investing) |
| Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov) | ≈$106.0 · ≈$94.1 | $104.36 (Tue low) · $102.33 · $86.53–89.53 (V024) | $107.33 (Mon high) · $110 | Monday settle $106.65 |
| Gold · Copper (COMEX) | $4,162.50 · $6.68/lb | $4,153.80 · $4,133 | $4,218.10 · $4,250 | Kitco; Monday's range |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,783.9 | 8,765 (SPI low) · 8,716.6 (9 Oct) | 8,818 (SPI settle) · 8,834 (SPI high) · 8,900 (V006 closes) | Two closes above 8,900 needed |
| KOSPI · TAIEX · Nikkei | 6,035 · 48,341 · 67,778 | 5,911 (Tue low) · 48,066 · 67,000 | 6,384 · 49,126 · 69,031 | Prior closes and Tuesday ranges |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 83 / 311 / 1,253bp (9 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) | HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,253 (high) | FRED; 13 Oct not posted |
| Bitcoin | ≈$83,300 | $81,000 (Tue low) · $80,000 | $84,000 · $85,659 | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:05 AEDT Wednesday, with Asia, Australia and Europe gathered first under the Tuesday–Friday timing protocol. The US desk fetched closes after 16:00 ET; AP's Tuesday tabulation was read at about 08:10 AEDT (KRMG syndication) and every change reconciles to Monday's AP closes and to settled ETFs. The lead re-fetched the Fed Rate Monitor (still stamped 15:45 ET), the Treasury par table (no 13 Oct row) and Investing's Brent history at about 08:10 AEDT. Every figure was retrieved on 14 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled. This edition filed later than the 07:30 target.
Corrections and updates to No. 027
(1) Brent December 12 October settled $106.65 (Rigzone; Investing restated its row from 106.74). It replaces the ≈$106.6–106.7 vendor range; within the range, not material.
(2) Fed Rate Monitor, unresolved. No. 027 quoted 23.0% for October from a page stamped "Oct 12, 2026 04:45PM EDT". On Tuesday the page's own prior-day column shows 19.5%, and the US desk saw 23.0% at 11:35 ET Tuesday. Either the page restated Monday's read or the 16:45 ET stamp carried an early Tuesday-session value; we cannot tell which. Flagged, not changed.
(3) No German ZEW and no UK labour report on Tuesday; both are Tue 20 Oct (ForexFactory, myfxbook). No. 027's calendar already had them there; the desk brief had carried them for Tuesday.
(4) BoE Greene: No. 027 listed Tuesday 14:00 AEDT; ForexFactory lists Thursday 17:45 AEDT. TE carries a Greene quote without a date. Unresolved.
(5) Riyadh airport toll: 14 dead across the 10 and 11 October attacks (Al Jazeera), replacing 12–13 for the first attack alone.
(6) The FOMC meeting is listed by the Fed as 27–28 October; the decision time (05:00 AEDT Thu 29 Oct) is unchanged.
(7) Discharged: FRED OAS for 9 October (IG 83, HY 311, CCC 1,253); OAT–Bund dedicated series for 12 October (139.5bp); RBA 4pm table for 13 October; ASX close for 13 October; RBA minutes text; bank provisions.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
S&P change: AP −1.79 vs Investrade −1.59; AP used. S&P record close: IBTimes cites 7,844.67 (unverified); this note carries AP's 7,818.93 (6 Oct). Brent 13 October: Investrade 105.69, TE 105.72, Investing 105.92 then 106.31 on a later fetch; quoted as a range and labelled a vendor close. WTI: morning prints near $92.3–92.5 vs late vendor closes $94.09–94.18; the late closes are used. European closes: printed only where level and change tie to Monday's close; TE's DAX table (25,267), TE's CAC CFD (7,811.50) and a Finimize intraday Stoxx (638.44) were rejected; IBEX and FTSE MIB unresolved. TAIEX: Focus Taiwan 48,341.31 ties; TE's 48,368 does not and is rejected. OAT–Bund: dedicated series 139.5bp (12 Oct) used; TE same-page derived 137.8bp (13 Oct) not substituted; the series' OAT benchmark (4.86) differs from TE's (4.905 on 12 Oct). FX: TE prints two DXY values (102.17, 102.24) and two NZD values; ranges or the leg-rebuilt figure shown. KRW direction conflicts (Seoul close 1,345.1 vs TE 1,339.8). TTF: the carried €83.16 was a Friday level; TE's prior €84.35 used. FMS sample: 185 managers/$512bn (Benzinga) vs 161/$453bn (hedgefundtips); the former used. US–China truce expiry: 10 January 2027 (Startup Fortune) vs 10 November (Tech Times); the former used, flagged.
Single-source and unverified items
DAX close (TE narrative) · Hang Seng, Shanghai, Sensex, Nifty (TE; arithmetic ties) · VIX 15.24 (Cboe page) · Williams and Waller remarks (Investrade; briefs.co) · NFIB (TE) · UNH figures (Investrade) · Brent and WTI closes (vendors) · NAB conditions and cost components (TE) · India CPI 5.54% (TE) · PBoC fix 6.7298 (TE) · BoJ, BoE, RBNZ pricing (stale, 6–9 Oct) · IMF WEO 3.1% (TE) · Hormuz transit count (tankermap) · the Monday tanker strike (IranWire) · Netanyahu–Trump remarks (Newsquawk) · Dhahran booms (cause unknown) · Moody's France 23 October (no primary calendar; one search hit, an MNI PDF, contained embedded instructions and was ignored and should be treated as untrusted) · FMS details (Benzinga summary) · BofA Flow Show (Finvaulta) · TSMC estimates (LSEG via BeInCrypto) · bank and ASML consensus (TipRanks via TheStreet).
Not obtained
Official par row for 13 October (posts ≈09:00 AEDT) · a settled Fed Rate Monitor refresh · ICE and NYMEX settles for 13 October · FRED OAS for 13 October · a Nasdaq-100 cash close · sector percentages for the S&P · TOPIX, HS Tech, CSI 300 (contradictory), NZX 50 (three prints), IBEX, FTSE MIB · the SPI night session · a post-minutes RBA pricing read · Cotality's preliminary clearance for 10–11 October · the PS rejection-motion result · Kalshi Fed odds (API blocked) · CoinShares and Lipper weekly flows · the October FMS #1 crowded trade · SpotGamma levels · the API weekly crude report.
Thursday's first verification targets
(1) Official par for 13 and 14 October: V030's first mark since 9 October. (2) FRED OAS for 13 and 14 October: V017's mirror at HY 305bp. (3) OAT–Bund dedicated series for 13 October (V025). (4) ICE Brent December settles for 13 and 14 October (V024). (5) CPI actuals from bls.gov. (6) ASX close, RBA 4pm table and labour force (V006, V023). (7) A settled Fed Rate Monitor read after CPI, and the 19.5%/23.0% discrepancy. (8) TSMC and ASML results, then write the NDX/SOX hedge trigger if opened.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- AP via KRMG — Tuesday tabulation · Investrade — market review, 13 Oct · SPY · DIA · QQQ · IWM · TheStreet — 13 Oct · Reuters via GV Wire · Yahoo — markets live · Cboe — VIX
- JPMorgan 8-K supplement · Goldman 8-K · Citigroup 8-K · Wells Fargo 8-K · Fortune — bank results · Forbes — credit read · TheStreet Pro — 14 Oct earnings
- US Treasury — par yield curve · TE — US yields · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar · FXStreet — Barkin · briefs.co — Waller · Cleveland Fed — nowcast · Admiral — CPI preview · TE — NFIB
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · Benzinga — October FMS · BofA Flow Show via Finvaulta · ICI MMF · AAII · Fear & Greed replica · SKEW · VIX term structure · breadth · FactSet — 9 Oct · S&P technicals · DeFi Rate — midterms · Al Jazeera — Cook
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — minutes, 28–29 Sep · RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · centralbank.watch — RBA · BoE · CryptoSlate — BoC odds · Econostream · Newsquawk · investingLive — USD/JPY
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — Bund · OAT · BTP · Gilt · JGB · ACGB · TE — DXY · EUR · CNY · Investing — USD/JPY · AUD/USD
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- ShareTrader — ASX close, 13 Oct · ASX — futures EOD, 13 Oct · Market Index — live, 13 Oct · TE — ASX · TE — NAB · CommSec — week ahead · Cotality
- Nikkei Indexes · JoongAng — KOSPI · JoongAng — CXMT · Focus Taiwan — TAIEX · TE — China · Hong Kong · India · NZD · TE — China calendar
Europe and geopolitics
- Irish Times — European close · Reuters via Business Recorder · Boursorama — CAC · TE — Stoxx · LCP — RN and the rejection motion · nosparlementaires — calendar · ForexFactory · next week
- IranWire — tanker struck · Al Jazeera — Houthi threats · Al Jazeera — energy ceasefire · Al Jazeera — diesel deal · Gulf News — Iran–Oman corridor · tankermap · Startup Fortune — truce · AP via CP24 — tariffs
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Rigzone — Brent settle · Investing — Brent history · TE — Brent · TE — WTI · Buckhead Energy · EBM — diesel deal · Nairametrics — OPEC · IEA — OMR · EIA schedule · TE — TTF
- Kitco — gold · Westmetall — copper · TE — iron ore · FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · ConvexTrade
- CoinGecko · CoinDesk · CoinDesk — live, 13 Oct · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · Coinalyze