Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Monday's edition is the first clause of each.

Oil sold off in Asia on a Russian "energy ceasefire" and then reversed through Europe and New York on Iran and Riyadh: December Brent closed about $106.7, up 1.9%. Investing.com's dated row has December Brent at $106.74 (open 103.59, low 102.39, high 107.23) and TE has $106.57; neither is an ICE settle, so we quote ≈$106.6–106.7 against Friday's $104.72. WTI November closed about $93.7 (+2.0%) (Investing $93.73, TE $93.61, Buckhead $93.59). At 16:15 AEDT the ABC had Brent at $103.46, down 1.2%, after Trump announced a unilateral Russia–Ukraine "energy ceasefire" on Sunday and confirmed Russian diesel supply. Three things reversed it: Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei called the US reply to Iran's conditions "inadequate" and named US-linked cables and data centres as targets (Iran International, Reuters via US News); the IRGC said it hit a "third offending supertanker" in two days on Monday morning (IranWire); and Riyadh airport stayed shut after the Houthi attack that killed 12–13 people. Russia struck Kharkiv power and gas sites despite the ceasefire, and Peskov said Moscow does "not want a ceasefire". V024's residual call is $17 above its re-own band; no action.
The October hike odds rose to 23% and the dollar did the work the closed bond market could not; CPI is tomorrow night. The Fed Rate Monitor's post-close read, stamped "Oct 12, 2026 04:45PM EDT", has 23.0% for an October hike, up from 18.4% in Friday's settled read, and 85.4% for at least one hike by December (66.8% one, 18.6% two) against 82.9%. Kalshi and Polymarket priced about 19% at 15:03 ET (DeFi Rate). Cleveland's Hammack warned that inflation expectations could become "less anchored". The dollar index rose about 0.35% to 102.56–102.59 (Investing.com, TE), which TE calls the highest since April 2025, and EUR/USD fell to 1.1155–1.1160, a 2026 low (investingLive), and the dollar rose against all seven majors. Cash Treasuries did not trade, so the first bond-market price on a $2 oil rally comes tonight, with the 13 October par row posting about 08:00 AEDT Wednesday. Wednesday's CPI (23:30 AEDT) has a consensus of +0.6% m/m and 3.6–3.7% y/y headline, +0.2% and 2.5% core; the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 0.53% and 3.60% headline, core 0.20%. BofA's economists expect a hike in October itself (secondary summary). Core at 0.3% is the print that would move the October odds; the headline is already in the price.
Wall Street rotated out of chips into value on Monday, and Korea had already sold memory 3.65% lower; the banks report tonight. AP has the S&P 500 at 7,807.24 (−4.30, −0.06%), the Dow 51,850.55 (+0.38%), the Nasdaq Composite 27,245.90 (−0.44%) and the Russell 2000 2,794.48 (−0.45%); the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.71% to 30,664.70 (investingLive). The VIX rose to about 15.2 (Cboe, delayed). Micron fell more than 3% after China's CXMT reported progress on a new memory-cell design (Yahoo), and in Seoul the KOSPI fell 3.65% to 6,384.24 on Samsung (−3.8%) and SK hynix (−3.9%) (TE, single source). JPMorgan (consensus EPS $5.93), Goldman ($13.09), Citi ($2.65) and Wells Fargo ($1.84) report before the US open, from about 22:00 AEDT; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML follow on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. Yahoo has the KBW bank index more than 14% below its August peak. FactSet's financials growth estimate is only +3.0% against 29.6% for the index, so the bar is provisions, not earnings.
The ASX rose 0.76% to 8,783.2 on banks and miners, and December SPI settled the day session 20 points higher; the RBA's minutes land at 11:30. Financials rose 1.6% and materials 1.5%, but only four of eleven sectors gained (ShareTrader); Westpac rose 2.7% and BHP 2.5%, TPG fell 4.9% and Telstra 2.5% on the SpaceX spectrum read-across (ABC). December SPI settled the day session at 8,803 (+54) (ASX end-of-day report) and the S&P finished roughly flat after that settle; the night session was not published, so we have no verified implied open. The minutes and the NAB survey both land at 11:30; November pricing is ≈26–30%. On the RBA's 4pm table AUD/USD was unchanged at 0.6979 and AUD/NZD rose to 1.2447 (+31 pips). V006 is now 2.47% in favour, 1.3% from its 8,900 line; V023 is 197 pips above its exit.
France's budget debate opens today with the OAT under pressure again; the dedicated spread series has not updated, so V025 is carried unmarked. TE has the OAT 10-year up 3.8bp to 4.905% on Monday while the Bund fell about 1.3bp to 3.47%; the ideal-investisseur series that marks V025 last printed 132.5bp for Friday. On TE's yields the spread is about 143bp, but TE's OAT benchmark differs from the dedicated series' (4.87% against 4.80% for Friday), so we do not substitute it. The Assembly debates the revenue half from today with 3,830 amendments filed after the finance committee rejected it 31–3; the vote is Tue 20 Oct and Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 Oct (date unverified). European equities rose regardless: the Stoxx 600 gained 0.65% to 635.65, led by banks (+1.5%), while the CAC lagged at +0.38%. LVMH reported Q3 sales of €18.50bn after the close, with fashion and leather goods down 5% (Newsquawk, single source).
The credit, spread and curve marks the book depends on did not update on a bond holiday; gold fell with the dollar. FRED's OAS series still end at 8 October (CCC 1,252bp, HY 315bp, IG 82bp), so V017's new downgrade mirror (two HY prints below 305bp) cannot be tested yet; tonight's bank provisions are the next credit input. No par row for 12 October means V030 stays at 58bp. Gold spot fell 0.63% to $4,166.30 (Kitco, 15:02 ET; TE $4,167.77), which TE attributes to the dollar. Bitcoin is about $82,400–82,800, roughly 1–2% below Monday's edition, after spot BTC ETFs lost $679m last week; Monday's ETF flows have not posted.

Overnight recap

Monday 12 October: Asia sold oil on a ceasefire headline, Europe and New York bought it back on Iran, and chips gave way to value.

United States: flat index, rotation underneath, no bond market

AP's tabulation: the S&P 500 fell 4.30 points (−0.06%) to 7,807.24, 11.7 points below its 6 October record close; the Dow rose 195.60 (+0.38%) to 51,850.55; the Nasdaq Composite fell 120.27 (−0.44%) to 27,245.90; and the Russell 2000 fell 12.50 (−0.45%) to 2,794.48. Every change reconciles to Friday's AP closes, and settled ETFs agree in sign and size (SPY −0.07%, DIA +0.34%, QQQ −0.70%, IWM −0.37%; stockanalysis, 16:00 stamps). The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.71% to 30,664.70 (investingLive). The shape was the same all day: the Dow up, the Nasdaq down, a rotation into value and defensives (Motley Fool, TheStreet). The VIX was 15.22 (+0.38) on Cboe's delayed page, provisional until FRED posts.

Movers (intraday reports, mostly single source): technology led the declines, with Lumentum −7.4% and SanDisk −7.0% by mid-morning (TheStreet), Intel −3.0% and Cisco −3.3% (TradingKey) and Nvidia about −1.1% (Motley Fool). Micron fell more than 3% on China's CXMT memory announcement. Gainers: CCC Intelligent Solutions about +10% on reports GTCR and Elliott are in advanced talks to buy it; Salesforce +4.3% after a BofA upgrade; eBay about +4% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick (corroborated by three outlets); Microsoft +0.7% on its Maia 300 chip. Adobe fell about 4% on a Wells Fargo downgrade to underweight and Chipotle 3–4% after Starbucks denied a bid. Energy was bid with crude.

Rates and the Fed. Cash Treasuries were closed; Treasury futures traded but we have no verified settle. The Treasury's par table has no 12 October row, and Monday's widely quoted "10-year 5.24%" is Friday's level carried forward. Cleveland Fed President Hammack leaned hawkish on Monday, warning that inflation expectations could become "less anchored" (investingLive). The Fed's October calendar has Waller on AI at 03:45 ET today (18:45 AEDT), Bowman in Bangkok on Wednesday, the Beige Book at 05:00 AEDT Thursday and Chairman Kevin Warsh with the IMF's Georgieva at 14:30 AEDT Friday; the blackout starts Saturday. The White House has scheduled a closed-door 5 November hearing at which Justice Department officials can question Governor Lisa Cook (WSJ via the Just Security digest, single source). Government funding runs to 11 December (CRFB).

Europe: banks led a broad gain, France lagged

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.65% to 635.65 (Reuters via Business Recorder; ties exactly to Friday's 631.55), with banks +1.5% and luxury +0.95%; telecoms (−0.54%) were the laggard on the SpaceX spectrum story. The DAX rose 0.76% to about 25,278 (TE; ties to Friday's 25,087.27), with Rheinmetall +2.9% after Morgan Stanley turned more positive on defence and RWE +2.2% after the Chancellor backed using budget room to cut electricity taxes; Infineon fell 2.6%. The CAC rose 0.38% to 7,832.88 (Boursorama, last trade 18:05; ties exactly). The FTSE 100 rose 0.99% to 10,656.28 (investingLive; ties to 10,552.05) on HSBC, Lloyds, Barclays and NatWest; Informa fell 1.5% on the Riyadh attack ahead of its health exhibition there. The IBEX led at +1.33% (Reuters) and the FTSE MIB rose 0.58% to 50,034.99 (investingLive; ties to Friday's ≈49,746). The SMI and Euro Stoxx 50 did not tie to a single figure and are not quoted. After the close LVMH reported Q3 sales of €18.50bn against €18.47bn expected, fashion and leather goods €8.25bn against €8.39bn (−5% y/y) (Newsquawk). On TE, the Bund 10-year fell to 3.47%, the OAT rose 3.8bp to 4.905%, the BTP was 4.58% and the gilt 10-year rose 2bp to 5.44%. EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1160, which TE ties to French debt concerns.

Asia: Korea's memory sell-off, Japan shut

The KOSPI fell 3.65% to 6,384.24 (TE; ABC had −2.9% mid-session), its first session since Thursday after the Hangul Day holiday, with foreigners heavy sellers of Samsung and SK hynix. TAIEX closed 49,301.96 (−0.02%) on the exchange's own table, which also settles last week's conflict: the 8 October close was 49,313.44 (see §13). The Shanghai Composite fell 0.43% to 3,797.2 as AI-hardware names dropped (Foxconn Industrial Internet −7.2%) while state banks rose 2–3%; the Hang Seng rose about 0.25% to 24,271 (TE, single source). India fell: Sensex −0.76% to 71,924.68, Nifty −0.70% to 22,363.35 (TE). Tokyo was closed for Sports Day; Nikkei futures traded but the quote we found is undated. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7313, the strongest fix since February 2023 but 336 pips weaker than the 6.6977 Reuters estimate, a lean against the pace of yuan gains (investingLive).

Geopolitics since Sunday

Iran and Hormuz. Rezaei, secretary of Iran's SNSC, said the US "has agreed to some of Iran's seven conditions" but its response is "inadequate", that Washington must clarify points before talks proceed, and that US-linked cables, data centres and AI facilities would be in range in a war (Iran International, 16:11 UTC Sunday; Reuters). The conditions are not public in full; reported elements include lifting the naval blockade and easing limits on Iran's oil sales. The IRGC said an unnamed supertanker hit a mine on Saturday night, a projectile hit an outbound tanker on Sunday, and on Monday morning it struck a "third offending supertanker", name and flag undisclosed (Al Jazeera, IranWire). Al Jazeera reports that CENTCOM disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship trying to run the blockade in the Gulf of Oman early Sunday, which corroborates the event we reported on Monday; the vessel name Ocean Molica remains single-source (JPost). CENTCOM's count since mid-July: four commercial vessels disabled, 135 turned around, ten Iran-linked tankers destroyed. Kpler put Hormuz crude flows at 8.5mb/d in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal (via Al Jazeera); AIS-visible tanker transits on tankermap averaged 1.1 a day over 6–12 October. Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before the midterms, and no breakthrough is expected before Israel's 27 October election.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The Houthis claimed Saturday's strike on Riyadh's King Khalid airport; the toll is 12 or 13 killed and more than 300 injured depending on the source, an American among the dead. A second attack followed, Dammam airport was also hit, and Riyadh airport was still shut on Monday; Lufthansa cancelled flights to 16 October and Air France-KLM to the end of the month. Trump said the US is weighing joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis. This is the Yemen theatre; nothing new was reported from Maysan in Iraq.

Russia–Ukraine. Trump announced a Russia–Ukraine "energy ceasefire" on Sunday; Russia then hit a Kharkiv power plant and Naftogaz gas sites. Zelensky said Ukraine was "horribly surprised" and would respond if Russia did not comply; Peskov said talks continue but "we do not want a ceasefire". The EU added almost 1,600 sanctions listings. Six US senators urged Trump to reverse the Russian diesel deal (TheStreet). US–China: the Busan "30-for-30" tariff relief is a set of recommendations, with the Section 301 process still to run (Covington).

This morning's setup

The last SPI price is Monday's 8,803 day settle, 20 points above the cash close; the S&P finished roughly flat after it. The RBA minutes and the NAB survey are at 11:30, the CNY fix at 12:15 and Japan returns from its holiday. Tonight cash Treasuries reopen into a $2 oil rally and an 18-month dollar high, and the four big banks report before the New York open.

Market dashboard

Monday 12 October closes unless marked. On a Tuesday the week-to-date change and the one-day change are the same session, so one column shows both.

Week to date: change since Friday 9 October's close

One session (Monday 12 October). Only assets with a close that ties to a verified Friday prior are shown; Brent and WTI are vendor closes, KOSPI is single source, US indices are from the AP tabulation (Nasdaq-100 from investingLive). FX pairs are shown as the pair moved. Hover over a bar for the exact value.

Up since FridayDown since Friday

Equities	Close	1d / wtd	Note
S&P 500	7,807.24	−0.06%	⭐ Verified (AP tabulation). SPY −0.07% at the 16:00 stamp. 11.7 points below the 6 Oct record close
Dow Jones · Nasdaq-100	51,850.55 · 30,664.70	+0.38% · −0.71%	Dow AP (DIA +0.34%). NDX investingLive (QQQ −0.70%); investingLive's Dow 51,856.18 is a pre-final print
Nasdaq Composite · Russell 2000	27,245.90 · 2,794.48	−0.44% · −0.45%	AP. IWM −0.37% at the 16:00 stamp
VIX	15.22	+0.38	Cboe delayed page (20:06 ET); provisional
Stoxx 600 · DAX	635.65 · ≈25,278	+0.65% · +0.76%	Stoxx corroborated (Reuters via Business Recorder; ties to 631.55). DAX TE, ties to 25,087.27; TE's table figure 25,270.10 does not tie and is rejected
CAC 40 · FTSE 100 · IBEX · FTSE MIB	7,832.88 · 10,656.28 · 19,285.80 · 50,034.99	+0.38% · +0.99% · +1.33% · +0.58%	CAC verified (Boursorama; investingLive 7,832.89). FTSE and MIB investingLive, both tie to Friday (TE had FTSE ≈10,645, +0.88%). IBEX TE and Reuters agree. SMI and Euro Stoxx 50 not tied; not quoted
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	69,030.92 · 4,104.81	shut	Friday closes; Tokyo closed Monday (Sports Day). Futures traded; quote undated, not used
Shanghai · Shenzhen Comp.	3,797.2 · 12,384.9	−0.43% · −2.03%	Shanghai corroborated (TE table, 247wallst); Shenzhen single source. CSI 300 not obtained
Hang Seng	≈24,271	+0.25%	TE only. HS Tech not obtained
KOSPI · TAIEX	6,384.24 · 49,301.96	−3.65% · −0.02%	KOSPI TE only (ABC −2.9% mid-session); vs Thursday's close. TAIEX verified (TWSE table); vs 8 Oct 49,313.44
Sensex · Nifty 50	71,924.68 · 22,363.35	−0.76% · −0.70%	TE only; near two-year lows. STI and NZX not obtained
S&P/ASX 200 · All Ords	8,783.2 · 8,937	+0.76% · +0.7%	⭐ Corroborated (ShareTrader, TE, ABC). Investing.com's 8,785.0 was a 13:07 intraday quote and is rejected. SPI Dec day settle 8,803 (+54), verified (ASX EOD); night session not published

Rates & credit	Level	1d	Note
UST par, 9 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y)	4.80 · 5.02 · 5.24 · 5.60%	no row 12 Oct	⭐ Verified (Treasury TextView, confirmed no 12 Oct row). 5s30s 58bp, 2s10s 44bp. Next row (13 Oct) posts ≈08:00 AEDT Wed
Gilt 10y	5.44%	+2bp	TE. 19-year high 5.51% on 8 Oct
Bund · OAT · BTP 10y	3.47 · 4.905 · 4.58%	−1.3 · +3.8 · −0.6bp	TE. OAT corroborated by a 15:05 CEST intraday 4.87% (+1bp)
OAT–Bund (dedicated series)	132.5bp (9 Oct)	not posted	⭐ V025's mark; page last updated 9 Oct 17:35. TE-derived ≈143bp (+5) uses a different OAT benchmark and is not substituted
JGB 10y · 30y	3.02 · 4.06%	holiday	No trade Monday
ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y	4.90 · 5.33 · 5.80%	≈0 · −2 · −2bp	TE, ABC (10y 5.33% at 16:15). ASX futures: 3y 95.095, 10y 94.66 (≈4.905%, ≈5.34%). The TE table's flat 10y is rejected
Canada 10y	3.88%	holiday	Friday's level
US IG · HY · CCC OAS (8 Oct)	82 · 315 · 1,252bp	no new obs.	⭐ Verified (FRED, ConvexTrade on HY). FRED's 9 and 12 Oct observations not posted; next release was due 12 Oct

FX	Level	1d	Note
DXY	102.56–102.59	+0.34–0.37%	Corroborated (Investing.com 102.59, range 102.10–102.60; TE 102.558, "near highest since April 2025")
EUR/USD	1.1160	−0.32%	Corroborated (TE; investingLive late 1.1155, "a new 2026 low")
USD/JPY	158.63	+0.19%	Investing.com (range 158.08–158.64); TE 158.68. Thin holiday trade. No MoF remarks found
GBP/USD · NZD/USD	1.321–1.323 · 0.558–0.560	−0.04 to −0.23% · −0.2 to −0.5%	Unverified: TE page and table disagree; ranges shown
AUD/USD	0.6979 (RBA) · ≈0.6955 (NY late)	0.00% (RBA) · −0.39% (NY)	⭐ RBA 4pm verified. NY late 0.6955 (investingLive; TE table 0.6958 agrees); not netted with the RBA basis. The dollar rose against all seven majors
AUD/NZD	1.2447	+0.25%	⭐ RBA 4pm table (verified); 9 Oct 1.2416 confirmed. AUD/JPY 110.51, TWI 64.8
USD/CNY · fix	6.6946 · 6.7313	+0.02%	Fix verified (investingLive): strongest since Feb 2023, 336 pips weaker than the 6.6977 estimate
USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN	≈96.0 · ≈1,334–1,338 · 18.24	≈−0.5% · ≈−0.3% · −0.95%	INR firmer on new RBI measures (corroborated direction). KRW and MXN magnitudes unverified (TE page vs table)

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	Note
Brent DECEMBER	≈$106.6–106.7	≈+1.9%	Corroborated vendor closes (Investing row 106.74, range 102.39–107.23; TE 106.57). Not an ICE settle. Friday $104.72 now corroborated (TE's implied base). TE live ≈$106.0 (+1.3%) at ≈07:35 AEDT Tue. Ignore Investing's "+3.08%", measured from a phantom Sunday row
WTI NOVEMBER	≈$93.6–93.7	≈+2.0%	Investing 93.73, TE 93.61, Buckhead 93.59 (18:57 UTC). Not a NYMEX settle
Henry Hub · TTF	≈$3.14–3.17 · €83.16	≈−2.5% · +2.1%	HH corroborated; TTF single source (TE: highest since December 2022)
Gold (spot)	$4,166.30	−0.63%	⭐ Kitco bid 15:02 ET (range 4,153.80–4,218.10); TE $4,167.77 corroborates
Silver · Platinum	≈$60.2 · ≈$1,694	≈−0.9% · flat	TE; platinum single source
Copper LME cash · COMEX	$14,689 (9 Oct) · ≈$6.73/lb	— · +1.3%	Westmetall 12 Oct row not posted. COMEX (TE) on an El Teniente accident and a Centinela strike
Iron ore 62% · Newcastle coal	$90.68 · $148.85	9 Oct	TE; no 12 Oct print posted
Bitcoin	≈$82,400–82,800	≈−1 to −2%	CoinGecko $82,354, CoinMarketCap $82,639, CoinDesk $82,822 (14:25 UTC). Signs on 24h changes not shown; direction from CoinDesk headlines
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	≈$2,520 · ≈$108 · $1.36–1.37 · ≈$745	—	CoinGecko and CMC. Total cap $2.80–2.88tn; BTC dominance 57.4–59.4% by method
Spot ETF flows	BTC −$678.9m · ETH −$542.2m (5–9 Oct)	12 Oct not posted	Farside (verified; 0.0 cells are placeholders)

Conventions: 1d is against Friday 9 October's close and, on a Tuesday, is also the week to date. The Treasury row is official par; cash Treasuries were shut on Monday. FX is New York close unless marked RBA 4pm; the two bases are never blended. Oil is a vendor close, not an exchange settle. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.

What is driving markets

Running themes, updated rather than rewritten. Oil stays first; credit and the long end had no new marks.

1. Oil: the physical risk is in the price and the weekend added to it

Monday showed both sides of the oil tape in one session. In Asia, Trump's Sunday "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine and the confirmed Russian diesel licence took December Brent to a $102.39 low (ABC had −1.2% at 16:15 AEDT). From the European session it reversed to close about $106.6–106.7, its highest in over two weeks on TE's account, as Russia hit Ukrainian energy sites anyway, Iran's SNSC rejected the US reply, the IRGC claimed a third supertanker strike and Riyadh airport stayed shut. The supply evidence still points the same way: Kpler had Hormuz crude flows at 8.5mb/d in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal; tankermap's AIS-visible transits averaged 1.1 a day over 6–12 October (escorted ships sail dark, so it undercounts); TE's narrative claims Gulf shipments at about 98% of pre-war, which we cannot source and do not use. The US Gulf is coming back: a Newsquawk headline put shut-ins at about 605kb/d (≈30%) after Isaias, against roughly 63% at the peak. Sell-side: JPMorgan puts delivered crude at $126–143 a barrel once freight is included (secondary summary), while Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $90 (11 October), still $16 below the market.

So whatV024's residual call stays; its re-own band ($86.53–89.53) is now about $17 below Monday's close. This week's inputs: the IEA's Oil Market Report Wednesday (iea.org confirms the date, not the time), the IEA board on a further diesel release (15 October), and the EIA report shifted to Thursday. For CPI, Brent above $106 raises October's energy contribution, which matters for the November print and the December meeting more than for Wednesday's number.

2. The long end is priced off supply and term premium; this week it rallied

Nothing to mark: cash Treasuries were shut on Monday and the last official par row is still Friday's (2y 4.80%, 5y 5.02%, 10y 5.24%, 30y 5.60%; 5s30s 58bp). The inputs moved against bonds even so. Oil rose about 2%, the dollar index reached an 18-month high, and the gilt 10-year rose 2bp to 5.44%, 7bp below its 8 October 19-year high. JGBs did not trade. Leveraged funds remain net short 6.76m Treasury contracts (CFTC, 6 October), and BofA's Flow Show had the largest weekly Treasury inflow since April 2025 (+$16.2bn): crowded shorts on one side and real-money buying on the other.

So whatV030 is unmarked at 58bp, 8bp above its stop. Tonight's reopening is the first test: if the 2-year leads a sell-off on oil and the dollar, that is Friday's bear flattener again and it hurts the view. A soft core CPI on Wednesday is the bull-steepening case. The 13 October par row posts about 08:00 AEDT Wednesday.

3. Credit: the stress at the bottom of the scale is now reaching HY

No new FRED observation since 8 October (CCC 1,252bp, a series high after seven straight widenings; HY 315bp; IG 82bp); the release due on 12 October had not posted, which may be the holiday. The equity side of the credit story moved: Yahoo has the KBW bank index more than 14% below its August peak, with Bank of America down about 13% and Goldman about 12% over a month, and BofA's Flow Show recorded the largest financials outflow since March (−$3.0bn). Europe went the other way on Monday, with Stoxx banks +1.5%. Tonight's four big US banks give the first read on whether loan-loss provisions show the stress the CCC index has priced.

So whatV017 stays at High. Its exit (CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter) is 202bp away and its downgrade mirror (two FRED HY prints below 305bp) is 10bp away; neither can be tested until FRED posts. Provisions above consensus tonight would support the view; a clean set of bank results with tighter HY would be the first evidence against it.

4. AI hardware: Thursday's de-rating was recovered in price, not in leadership

Monday added a China angle. CXMT said it had made "key progress" on a new memory-cell structure (Newsquawk, Yahoo), and memory sold off on both sides of the Pacific: SK hynix and Samsung fell about 3.9% and 3.8% in Seoul and the KOSPI 3.65%; Micron fell more than 3% in New York. In China, optical and AI-hardware names fell (Foxconn Industrial Internet −7.2%, Innolight −6.6%) while state banks rose. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.71% to 30,664.70 while the Dow rose 0.38%, taking the NDX further below its 20- and 50-day averages (30,918 and 30,898 as of 9 October, Investing.com) and to just under its 100-day (30,685). The replica SKEW was 154.3 at Friday's close (94th percentile for the year), so protection is still expensive.

So whatWe still do not open the NDX/SOX hedge; under our convention it is written after TSMC (Thursday) with its own trigger. ASML on Wednesday is the first read. The memory sell-off is a pricing-power question for the Korean chip trade that FMS respondents named the most crowded in September (53%); it is a house reading, not yet an earnings fact.

5. Australia: the hike has landed on mortgages; the RBA's own account comes Tuesday

The account comes this morning. The ASX rose 0.76% on Monday, led by banks (financials +1.6%, Westpac +2.7%) and miners (materials +1.5%, BHP +2.5%), but only four of eleven sectors rose and the Small Ords gained only 0.1% at 14:45 (ABC): a large-cap rally. The 10-year ACGB eased about 2bp to 5.33%. November pricing is unchanged at ≈26–30% (centralbank.watch 26–28%; TE about 30%), with about 23bp over three meetings. The hike was at the 29 September meeting; one Newsquawk preview places it on 18–19 September, which does not match the RBA's own schedule as carried in this note. Labour force on Thursday: consensus +20k jobs and 4.6% unemployment; August's +39.5k was all part-time (full-time −6.3k).

So whatA minutes line that treats September as the start of a sequence would lift 3-year yields and support V023 more than it hurts V006, because the index's leadership on Monday was banks, which tend to benefit from higher rates. The weak breadth under Monday's gain fits V006's thesis, but the index is 1.3% from the view's 8,900 line.

6. Europe: the spread compressed again on the ECB's language

The French budget's revenue half reaches the floor today: the finance committee rejected it 31–3 on 9 October and its rapporteur estimates the committee's votes added about €10bn to the deficit; 3,830 amendments are filed; the vote is Tue 20 Oct and a rejection ends the first reading (nosparlementaires.fr). The draft targets a 5.0% deficit in 2027 with debt at 121.7% of GDP. LFI says it will table a censure motion if Article 49.3 is used; the PS and RN criticised the bill without threatening censure. Fitch called the draft "indicative of a weaker starting point" (Newsquawk headline). On Monday the OAT 10-year rose 3.8bp while the Bund fell. BofA upgraded French equities to overweight on 9 October while putting OAT–Bund at 140bp, the widest since 2011–12 (secondary summary).

So whatV025 is carried unmarked at 132.5bp (Friday's dedicated-series print; 38.5bp in the money, 52.5bp from its exit). Monday's leg moves point to a wider spread, but by our 6 October convention an unmarkable view is named, not marked on a substitute series. The debate this week and the vote on Tuesday week are catalysts in the view's favour.

Central bank watch

Where each bank stands, what is priced, and the next date in Sydney time that can move it.

Fed funds pricing: implied probabilities by meeting, Monday's post-close read against Friday's settled read

Current target range 3.75–4.00%. Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, timestamps quoted verbatim: "Oct 12, 2026 04:45PM EDT" (post-close; a later settled refresh may differ) and "Oct 10, 2026 12:35AM EDT" (Friday settled). The October meeting is 27–28 October ET; the decision lands 05:00 AEDT Thu 29 Oct.

3.75–4.00% (hold)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	+25bp 16 Sep, 12–0	Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct	October hike 23.0% (post-close, 16:45 ET Mon; Friday settled 18.4%; prior week 24.1%). December: 66.8% one hike, 18.6% two, so 85.4% for at least one (Friday 82.9%). Prediction markets: hike ≈19% (Kalshi 18.5¢, Polymarket 19.5¢; DeFi Rate, 15:03 ET Mon)	Hawkish, December
RBA	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes today 11:30	≈26–30% for 3 Nov (centralbank.watch 26.0–27.9%, as of 9–11 Oct; TE ≈30%); Dec ≈46–54% cumulative; Feb ≈92%. Westpac and ANZ: hike to 4.85%; NAB: 4.60% peak; CBA: no formal call	Tightening bias
ECB	DFR 2.50%	+25bp 10 Sep	Fri 30 Oct 00:15 (meeting 28–29 Oct, ecb.europa.eu)	Hold priced for October, a December hike priced (LSEG via Reuters); centralbank.watch ≈8% October, ≈80% by December (9 Oct). Lagarde speaks Wed 13:10 and 19:30 AEDT	December over October
BoE	3.75%	Held 17 Sep, 6–3	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	≈89% for a November hike (centralbank.watch, 9 Oct). Greene today 14:00; Bailey Wed 16:30. Labour data Tue 20 Oct; Budget Wed 28 Oct	Hawkish
BoJ	1.25%	+25bp 18 Sep, 7–2	Fri 30 Oct (meeting 29–30 Oct, boj.or.jp; Outlook Report)	≈12% October, ≈90% by December on OIS after Ueda's 6 Oct speech (iTiger); investingLive had about one in four on 5 Oct. Range shown	Gradual; December favoured
RBNZ	2.75%	+25bp Sep (second straight)	Wed 28 Oct 12:00 (rbnz.govt.nz)	TE ≈58% for a hike (single source, 8 Oct); no reliable OIS read	Removing stimulus
BoC	2.25%	Seven holds in 2026	Thu 29 Oct 00:45 (Wed 28 Oct ET)	Market leans to a hold after −68.3k September jobs (TE); no usable OIS read	Hike case damaged
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50% · 7d 1.40%	Unchanged; PSL −25bp 29 Sep	Fix daily 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct	Monday fix 6.7313 vs 6.6977 estimate: strongest since Feb 2023, set 336 pips weak of the model	Leaning against CNY gains
RBI · BoK · MAS	5.50% · 3.00% · —	RBI +25bp 7 Oct	RBI 4 Dec · BoK Thu 22 Oct · MAS late Oct (date unresolved)	RBI added a dollar window for oil companies and tighter FX-derivative rules; the rupee firmed about 0.5% Monday	Tightening
SNB · Riksbank · Norges	0.00% · 1.75% · 4.50%	Norges +25bp 24 Sep	SNB 10 Dec · Riksbank Wed 4 Nov · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00	Not refreshed this edition	Mixed
Banxico · BCB · BI · CBRT	6.50% · 13.75% · 5.75% · 37.00%	BCB −25bp 16 Sep	BI 21 Oct · CBRT 22 Oct · Banxico 6 Nov	Not refreshed this edition	Holds

Fed. The October read rose 4.6 points to 23.0% after the close on a day with no cash Treasury market, driven by oil and the dollar; it is back near the prior week's 24.1%. Hammack (Cleveland) leaned hawkish on Monday on the risk that inflation expectations become "less anchored". Waller speaks on AI at 18:45 AEDT today, Barkin and Collins on Tuesday afternoon ET, Bowman twice from Bangkok, and Chairman Warsh with Georgieva at 14:30 AEDT Friday, the last scheduled chair appearance before the blackout. BofA's economists call for a hike in October and December; if the Fed skips October, they expect December and March (secondary summary, 9 October). The Cook hearing on 5 November (single source) keeps Fed independence in the term premium.

RBA. The minutes (11:30) are the first read on whether the unanimous September hike was framed as one move or the start of a sequence. The statement was hawkish ("further tightening in financial conditions is warranted") while Bullock's press conference allowed that further hikes may not be needed if inflation eases (Newsquawk preview). Next speakers: Kent on 18–19 October and Hauser on 21 October (RBA diary).

Elsewhere. No ECB, BoE or Japanese Ministry of Finance remarks dated Monday were found. USD/JPY at 158.63 is about 0.8% from 160. The IMF's October WEO is not yet on imf.org; the latest published growth figures there are January's (3.3% for 2026).

Regional briefs

United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan, China and Hong Kong, emerging Asia and LatAm.

United States

A holiday session with a rotation inside it. AP: the S&P fell 0.06% to 7,807.24, the Dow rose 0.38%, the Composite fell 0.44% and the Russell 0.45% as investors rotated from technology into value; eBay, Salesforce and CCC Intelligent Solutions rose, memory and optical names fell. The bond market reopens tonight into bank earnings, NFIB (98.0 expected) and Fed speakers; CPI follows on Wednesday and PPI and retail sales (+0.3% after +1.2%) on Thursday. FactSet: Q3 blended EPS growth 29.6%, forward P/E 19.1×, a record 72 positive guidance revisions since 2006. Politics: Trump has said there will be no strike on Iran before the 3 November midterms but is "going to look at" joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis; the Pentagon raised US deaths in the Iran war to 21 (NYT via Just Security). Funding runs to 11 December.

Euro area

Banks up, France down. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.65% and the DAX 0.76% on banks, defence and utilities; the CAC rose only 0.38% as the budget debate opened; the FTSE MIB crossed 50,000 (+0.58%). The German Chancellor backed cutting electricity taxes; European carmakers backed curbs on Chinese hybrid imports. LVMH's Q3 (organic growth worse than expected per Reuters, via Newsquawk) sets up luxury for today. ECB speakers: Elderson today, Lagarde twice on Wednesday, Nagel on Friday; the ECB meets 28–29 October. Data: German final CPI today (3.3% y/y), euro-area industrial production Thursday, final HICP Friday (3.8%, core 2.5%).

United Kingdom

Gilts back toward the high. The 10-year rose 2bp to 5.44%. The FTSE 100 rose about 0.9% on banks; Informa fell on the Riyadh attack. About 89% is priced for a November hike. The October labour report is Tue 20 Oct (ons.gov.uk), not this week; August GDP is Thursday 17:00 AEDT (consensus −0.1% m/m). Chancellor Healey says the 28 October Budget "will meet our fiscal rules"; more than half the headroom has reportedly gone since March on the Iran war. BoE speakers: Greene today, Breeden and Bailey Wednesday, Pill Thursday.

Japan

Back today after Sports Day. JGBs and the cash market were shut; the Nikkei's last close is 69,030.92. USD/JPY rose to 158.63 in thin trade. Ueda said on 6 October the Bank intends to keep raising rates, with timing and pace to be judged; OIS has about 12% for October. Takaichi has pledged a food consumption-tax cut funded without new JGBs (TE). Data: PPI today 10:50 AEDT (7.6% y/y expected), core machinery orders Thursday.

China & Hong Kong

Banks up, AI hardware down. Shanghai fell 0.43%; state banks rose 2–3% after the CSRC chair's capital-markets seminar and draft rules easing equity-fund launches, while optical and AI-hardware names fell. The Hang Seng rose about 0.25% (single source). The fix was the strongest since February 2023 but set weak of the model. This week: CPI and PPI Wednesday 12:30 AEDT (CPI 1.0% expected; PPI consensus conflicts at 3.8% and 4.5%), trade Wednesday (surplus $114.5bn expected; exports +25.3%), credit 13–15 October (new loans CNY975bn on TE), Q3 GDP Monday 19 October (prior 4.3%; TE model 5.2%).

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Korea took the memory hit. The KOSPI fell 3.65% on its return from holiday; TAIEX was flat, with TSMC −0.4% ahead of Thursday's results. India fell 0.7–0.8% to near two-year lows, though the rupee firmed about 0.5% on new RBI measures, from close to its record low of 96.96. The peso was reported 0.95% stronger at 18.24 (TE; magnitude unverified after two days of weakness). Brazil's runoff is 25 October.

Australia & New Zealand

Minutes and NAB at 11:30 today, jobs on Thursday, and a market still pricing a little over one chance in four of a November hike.

The RBA: the minutes test the sequence

The cash rate is 4.60% after a unanimous 25bp hike on 29 September. November pricing is ≈26–30%, December ≈46–54% cumulative and February ≈92%: about 23bp over three meetings (centralbank.watch; TE). The 3-year ACGB at 4.90% sits about 30bp over cash. Bank calls (The New Daily, 7–8 October; single source): Westpac and ANZ expect 4.85% from November; NAB sees 4.60% as the peak and calls November–December "a tougher call"; CBA has no formal call. Next: minutes and NAB today 11:30, Westpac leading index Wednesday, labour force Thursday 11:30, RBA Annual Report Thursday afternoon, Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct 11:30, decision Tue 3 Nov 14:30.

Markets: banks and miners up, breadth thin

Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,783.2 (+66.6, +0.76%) (ShareTrader; TE and the ABC agree), the All Ords +0.7% to 8,937. Four of eleven sectors rose: financials +1.6%, materials +1.5%; communication services −1.9% was the weakest. Movers: IperionX +5.9% after its Nasdaq listing, Zip +5.6% despite a UBS downgrade, BlueScope +3.7%, Sandfire +3.5%, Xero +3.3%, Westpac +2.7%, BHP +2.5%, Northern Star +2.5%; TPG −4.9%, Lynas −3.1%, Telstra −2.5%, Goodman −1.9%. At 14:45 the ASX 20 was up 1.1% and the Small Ords 0.1% (ABC). Futures: December SPI settled the day session at 8,803 (+54; high 8,825, low 8,761), 20 points above cash; the night report was not published at filing.

Rates and currency. ACGB 3-year 4.90%, 10-year 5.33% (−2bp), 30-year 5.80%; ASX bond futures settled 95.095 and 94.66, consistent. The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.6979 (unchanged), AUD/NZD 1.2447 (+31 pips), AUD/JPY 110.51, AUD/EUR 0.6227, TWI 64.8. New York had AUD/USD between 0.6958 and 0.6982 depending on source.

Data, housing and the China link

Data. Westpac-MI sentiment for October (80.4, −4.7%) was released on 6 October, not this week. NAB's September survey is today (confidence prior −8; TE model −9). Labour force Thursday: consensus +20k (TE model +15.9k), unemployment 4.6%, participation 67.0%. The CBA wage survey has annual wage growth steady at 3.3% (ABC). Housing. Cotality's preliminary clearance for the weekend of 10–11 October was again not found; its final for the week to 4 October was 45.4% on 1,212 auctions, against 67.4% a year earlier. Domain's preliminary rows for 4–10 October recompute to about 46% (Sydney 46%, Melbourne 54%; derived). China. Iron ore's last print is $90.68 (9 October; −8.1% on the month); the ABC says post-holiday Chinese steel-mill restocking disappointed. COMEX copper rose about 1.3% on Chilean supply news. China's CPI, PPI and trade data on Wednesday are the week's test for the miners.

New Zealand

The NZX 50's Monday close was not obtained (Friday 13,749.35). NZD/USD traded 0.558–0.560, near its lowest since November 2025 (TE); investingLive flags support at 0.5575–0.5579. AUD/NZD on the RBA table rose to 1.2447, 1.07% above V023's entry. The RBNZ decides Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT with an MPR; Q3 CPI is Thu 22 Oct 08:45 AEDT. The general election is in November.

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior / context	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈26–30% priced
RBA minutes (Sep meeting)	—	Statement: "further tightening ... warranted"	Today 11:30
NAB business survey (Sep)	—	Confidence −8; TE model −9	Today 11:30
Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct)	80.4 (−4.7%)	Six-month low; released 6 Oct	November survey
Westpac leading index	—	0.0%	Wed 14 Oct 11:00
Labour force (Sep)	—	+39.5k (full-time −6.3k), 4.6%, participation 67.1%	Thu 15 Oct 11:30 · consensus +20k, 4.6%
Auction clearance (final, capitals)	45.4%	w/e 4 Oct; a year ago 67.4%	Preliminary for 10–11 Oct not obtained
Quarterly CPI (Q3) + September monthly	—	Prior 0.6% q/q, 3.9% y/y; trimmed mean 3.6%	Wed 28 Oct 11:30 — V006's resolution date
ACGB 10y · 30y	5.33% · 5.80%	30y record 5.89% on 7 Oct	—

House views & tactical framework

Six open, none closed, none opened, no conviction changes. Three of the six could not be marked on a bond holiday and are named as such.

Nothing fired. Monday was a holiday for the series that mark three of the book's six views: no official par row (V030), no dedicated OAT–Bund print (V025) and no FRED OAS observation since 8 October (V017). Under our 6 October convention each is carried at its last verified mark and named as unmarked rather than marked on a substitute; all three are standing actions for Wednesday's edition. Of the three that could be marked, V023 improved 31 pips on the RBA table, V006 gave back 0.74 points as the ASX rose and V024's underlying rose about $2. We again did not open the NDX/SOX hedge: the entry is after TSMC on Thursday.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
US 5s30s (V030)	Steepener	Low	1–3 mo	UNMARKED: last official par 58bp (9 Oct: 5y 5.02%, 30y 5.60%), +1bp against a 57bp entry. Cash Treasuries were shut on Monday and no par row exists for 12 October. Monday's inputs (oil +2%, an 18-month dollar high) lean toward a front-end-led sell-off tonight, which flattens the curve and works against the view. Leveraged funds are short 6.76m contracts, concentrated in 2s, 5s and 10s	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (8bp away). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par. Next mark: the 13 Oct row (≈08:00 AEDT Wed); CPI Wed is the test
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	Med	1–3 mo	UNMARKED: last dedicated-series print 132.5bp (9 Oct), +38.5bp from a ≈94bp entry. Monday's legs on TE (OAT +3.8bp, Bund −1.3bp) point wider, but TE's OAT benchmark is not the series' and is not substituted. The revenue debate opens today, the vote is Tue 20 Oct, and Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 Oct (date unverified). LFI threatens censure only if 49.3 is used	UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (52.5bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct or an explicit backstop signal
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	High	1–3 mo	UNMARKED since 8 October (FRED): IG 82bp, HY 315bp, CCC 1,252bp, a series high after seven straight widenings; the 12 October release had not posted. Upgraded to High on 12 October on its pre-written condition. Tonight's JPMorgan, Citi, Wells and Goldman results are the first read on provisions; the KBW bank index is more than 14% below its August peak (Yahoo)	EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (202bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: back to Med if HY prints below 305bp on two consecutive FRED observations (10bp away)
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	+2.47% in favour: 8,783.2 against 9,005.9 (from +3.21% on Friday). Monday's gain was large-cap and narrow (four of eleven sectors up; Small Ords +0.1% at 14:45), led by banks and miners. Pricing for a November hike is ≈26–30%; clearance rates and sentiment are at multi-month lows	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (1.3% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct; minutes today and labour force Thursday first
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	1.2447 on the RBA 4pm table (12 Oct), +1.07% from ≈1.2315; +31 pips on the day (9 Oct 1.2416 confirmed). NZD/USD is near its lowest since November 2025 while AUD/USD held 0.6979 on the RBA basis. The view shares its Australian driver with V006	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (197 pips away). Dates: RBA minutes today, AU jobs Thu, NZ CPI Thu 22 Oct, RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	December closed ≈$106.6–106.7 on Monday (vendor closes; no ICE settle obtained), +1.9% after a $102.39 low in Asia. Friday's $104.72 is now corroborated. Iran's rejection of the US reply, a third supertanker strike and Riyadh's closure outweighed the Russian "energy ceasefire"	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$17 below Monday). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms. IEA OMR Wed; IEA board 15 Oct

Scorecard. Six open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. No change since Monday.

Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit at High conviction (V017), against Australian rate-sensitive equities and long the AUD against the NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). Monday's moves, oil up and the dollar up with the OAT leg wider, favour four of the six, but three of those four could not be marked. Its uncovered risks are unchanged: a front-end-led sell-off around CPI that flattens 5s30s, and an AI-hardware equity sell-off with no hedge on, which Monday's memory sell-off in Korea previewed.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

Tuesday edition: nothing new from the CFTC until Friday, and most gauges are still Friday's.

CFTC data are as of Tuesday 6 October (released Friday 9 October); the next report (13 October positions) is Saturday 06:30 AEDT. Nets are derived from the long and short columns. TFF leveraged funds and legacy non-commercials are different series and disagree in sign on JPY, GBP and AUD; never mix them. Every equity sentiment gauge below is as of the 9 October close or earlier.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC — positions as of Tue 6 October (reconfirmed this morning)
CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs	−6,759,832	−182,897 on the week	Longs 2,112,757, shorts 8,872,589. Largest total in this ledger. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove. Asset managers added longs in 2s, 5s and 10s (+112k, +160k, +96k)
E-mini S&P 500	LF −415,087 · AM +906,615	LF −42,598	Legacy non-commercial −154,070
FX — TFF leveraged funds	JPY −25,043 · EUR −44,261 · AUD +54,133 · GBP +12,432 · MXN +74,927	JPY −10,882 · AUD −6,459	Leveraged funds long AUD while asset managers are heavily short (87k long / 189k short)
FX — legacy non-commercial	JPY +62,325 · EUR −99,332 · AUD −98,588 · GBP −97,611 · MXN +10,701	EUR −36,076 · AUD −35,349 · MXN −41,701	The legacy cut built dollar length against EUR, AUD and MXN
WTI (managed money) · gold (legacy NC)	+53,598 · +210,335	−25,994 · −8,297	Speculators cut oil and gold length into the rally
Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted
BofA Flow Show (8 Oct)	Cash +$166.4bn	largest since April 2020	UST +$16.2bn (largest since April 2025); financials −$3.0bn (largest since March). Bull & Bear 8.1, still "sell". Secondary summary (Finvaulta)
ICI money funds (w/e 7 Oct)	$7,963.55bn	+$72.27bn	Verified. Institutional +$58.27bn. ICI long-term funds (w/e 30 Sep): equity −$4.66bn, bonds +$3.46bn
US spot crypto ETFs	BTC −$678.9m · ETH −$542.2m (5–9 Oct)	12 Oct not posted	BTC month to date −$388.6m (tftc.io). ETH ten straight outflow days
Sentiment and volatility
VIX (12 Oct, provisional)	15.22	+0.38 (provisional)	Cboe page, delayed; FRED VIXCLS not yet posted. VIX3M 17.77 and 129 days of contango (9 Oct, replica)
CBOE SKEW (9 Oct) · put/call (8 Oct)	154.3 · 0.89	94th pct (1 yr) · 9-day 0.85	Protection is expensive; the put/call page labels positioning "complacent"
AAII (w/e 7 Oct) · Fear & Greed replica (9 Oct)	Bull–bear +1.3 · 42 (Fear)	from −11.9 · 44 a week ago	Stock-price strength 14 (65 highs vs 187 lows)
BofA FMS (October)	not yet out	likely Tue 13 Oct NY (unconfirmed)	September: cash 3.9%; top tail risk disorderly yields (33%); most crowded long semis (53%)
Breadth and valuation
% of S&P members above 200-day (9 Oct)	50.0%	long-run mean 65.1%	Single source. Hindenburg Omen inactive (3 of 4 conditions; last trigger 17 Aug)
FactSet (9 Oct)	Fwd P/E 19.1× · Q3 EPS +29.6%	10-yr avg 19.1×	Verified. Financials +3.0%; 25 S&P companies report this week. Guidance: 72 positive, a record since 2006
Prediction markets (12 Oct)	Fed Oct hike ≈19% · WTI ≥$100 in Oct ≈36–37%	DeFi Rate, CryptoSlate	Aggregators; the oil ladder is internally inconsistent

The week ahead

Today to Saturday, then the sessions after. AEDT (UTC+11) first, US Eastern alongside; AEDT = ET + 15h until 1 November.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Tuesday 13 October — RBA minutes · cash Treasuries reopen · US banks
Tue	10:50	Mon 19:50	JP PPI (Sep) y/y	7.6%	7.6%	M
Tue	11:30	Mon 20:30	RBA minutes (September meeting) · NAB business confidence (Sep)	NAB −9 (TE model)	−8	H
Tue	12:15 · 14:00	Mon 21:15 · 23:00	CNY fix · BoE Greene		6.7313	L
Tue	17:00	02:00	DE final CPI (Sep) y/y	3.3%	flash 3.3%	L
Tue	18:15 · 18:45	03:15 · 03:45	ECB Elderson · Fed's Waller on AI (New Delhi)			M
Tue	21:00	06:00	US NFIB small business (Sep)	98.0	98.7	L
Tue	≈22:00	≈07:00	JPMorgan (EPS $5.93, rev $51.2bn) · Goldman ($13.09) · Citi ($2.65) · Wells Fargo ($1.84) · J&J · UnitedHealth			H
Wed	01:00 · 04:00 · 07:00	10:00 · 13:00 · 16:00	US existing home sales (per ForexFactory) · Fed's Barkin · Fed's Collins	3.96m	3.98m	L
13–15	—	—	CN new loans · M2 · TSF (Sep)	CNY975bn (TE) vs 300bn (FF) · 7.4–7.5%	60bn · 7.5%	M
Wednesday 14 October — China CPI and trade · ASML · IEA · US CPI
Wed	11:00	Tue 20:00	AU Westpac leading index		0.0%	L
Wed	12:30 · ≈14:00	Tue 21:30	CN CPI · PPI (Sep) · CN trade balance (time tentative)	1.0% · 3.8–4.5% · $114.5bn	0.8% · 3.8% · $119.1bn	H
Wed	13:10 · 19:30	Tue 22:10 · 04:30	ECB Lagarde (twice) · BoE Breeden 14:30, Bailey 16:30 AEDT			M
Wed	day	—	IEA Oil Market Report (time n/a) · ASML Q3 · BofA, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock (pre-market) · German 30y auction	ASML EPS €12.13		H
Wed	20:40	05:40	Fed's Bowman (IIF, Bangkok); again 13:55 Thu AEDT			L
Wed	23:30	08:30	US CPI (Sep) headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · y/y	+0.6% · 3.6–3.7% · +0.2% · 2.5%	+0.4% · 3.4% · +0.3% · 2.4%	H
Thursday 15 October — Beige Book · Australian jobs · UK GDP · TSMC · US PPI and retail sales
Thu	05:00 · 07:30	Wed 14:00 · 16:30	US Beige Book · API crude (holiday-shifted)			M
Thu	10:50	Wed 19:50	JP core machinery orders	+2.5%	−3.7%	L
Thu	11:30	Wed 20:30	AU labour force (Sep) · unemployment · participation · RBA Annual Report (afternoon)	+20k · 4.6% · 67.0%	+39.5k · 4.6% · 67.1%	H
Thu	day · 17:00	— · 02:00	TSMC Q3 (before the US open; time unconfirmed) · UK GDP (Aug) · IP · trade	EPS ≈$4.48/ADR · −0.1% m/m	+0.4%	H
Thu	20:00	05:00	EZ industrial production (Aug)	+0.1%	−0.1%	L
Thu	23:30	08:30	US PPI · retail sales (Sep) · control · claims · Empire · Philly Fed	+0.5% (core +0.3%) · +0.3% · +0.5% · 195k · 3.2 · 26.5	+0.4% · +1.2% · +1.4% · 197k · 7.6 · 37.8	H
Friday 16 – Saturday 17 October
Fri	03:00 · 07:30	Thu 12:00 · 16:30	EIA weekly petroleum (holiday-shifted) · Fed's Hammack		−3.2m	M
Fri	08:30 · 13:30	Thu 17:30 · 22:30	NZ BusinessNZ PMI · Bundesbank's Nagel		53.1	L
Fri	14:30	Thu 23:30	Fed Chairman Warsh with IMF MD Georgieva, Bangkok (Fed calendar, verified)			H
Fri	20:00	05:00	EZ final HICP (Sep) · core	3.8% · 2.5%	3.8% · 2.5%	M
Fri	23:30 · 00:15 Sat	08:30 · 09:15	US import prices · industrial production · capacity utilisation	+0.6% · +0.4% · 76.5%	+0.7% · 0.0% · 76.3%	L
Sat	all day	—	Fed blackout begins · CFTC COT (13 Oct positions) 06:30 · US TIC 07:00 · October options expiry Friday ET			M
The sessions after
18–23 Oct	—	—	RBA's Kent Sun 18 and Mon 19 · CN Q3 GDP Mon 19 (prior 4.3%) · PBoC LPR Tue 20 · UK labour Tue 20 17:00 · DE ZEW Tue 20 20:05 · French revenue vote Tue 20 · RBA's Hauser Wed 21 · UK CPI Wed 21 17:00 · NZ Q3 CPI Thu 22 08:45 · BoK Thu 22 · flash PMIs Fri 23 · Moody's France Fri 23 (unverified)			H
25–30 Oct	—	—	Europe DST ends and Brazil runoff Sun 25 · Israel election, French PLFSS vote Tue 27 · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30			H
Nov–Jan	—	—	US DST ends Sun 1 Nov · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 Nov · Riksbank Wed 4 · Cook hearing Thu 5 (single source) · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · US payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30 · French PLF vote 17 Nov · US funding 11 Dec · ECB 16–17 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan			H

⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column does not render. "TE model" marks Trading Economics' own forecast, not a survey. US CPI consensus: 3.6% y/y per heygotrade and ForexFactory, 3.7% per nowflation's Street column and bankofvol. China PPI consensus conflicts (Newsquawk 3.8%, ForexFactory 4.5%, TE model 4.3%). Bank EPS consensus from Investing.com and heygotrade (12 Oct); release times for JPM and WFC from a secondary source. Fed calendar times carry no time zone and are read as ET. From 26 October Europe moves to CET; from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	A hot core CPI revives October	US CPI Wed 14 Oct 23:30 AEDT; PPI and retail Thu; Warsh Fri 14:30	Oct hike 23.0% (futures); ≈19% (Kalshi/Polymarket)	A 0.3% core with Brent above $106 pulls the December hike forward; 2-year and dollar up; a bear flattener against V030	2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry
2	Gulf escalation spreads beyond Hormuz	Iran rejects the US reply; third supertanker hit Monday; Riyadh shut; US weighs joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis	WTI ≥$100 in Oct ≈36–37% (Polymarket via aggregator)	Brent $107.23 high on Monday; freight and products move first, inflation expectations follow	V024's residual call; product-crack optionality
3	The bond market's catch-up tonight	Cash Treasuries reopen after oil +2% and DXY at an 18-month high; LF net short 6.76m	—	A front-end sell-off flattens 5s30s toward V030's stop; a squeeze after a soft CPI steepens it	V030's 50bp stop; receive 5-year as a tactical hedge
4	Credit stress reaches the banks	JPM, Citi, Wells, Goldman tonight; BofA, MS Wed; CCC 1,252bp	—	Provisions above consensus would mark the stress moving to lenders; KBW banks already −14% from August	V017 (High); CDX HY protection
5	AI-hardware and memory de-rating	CXMT memory claim; KOSPI −3.65%; ASML Wed; TSMC Thu	FMS: long semis most crowded (53%, Sep)	The book has no equity hedge; IT carries much of FactSet's 29.6% Q3 growth	NDX or SOX put spreads after TSMC; SKEW 154 makes them dear now
6	The RBA signals a sequence	Minutes today 11:30; jobs Thu; Q3 CPI 28 Oct	RBA Nov ≈26–30% (ASX tracker, TE)	A hawkish minutes read lifts 3-year yields and hits rate-sensitive equity; banks may not follow	V006; AU 3-year payers
7	French budget and ratings	Revenue debate from today; vote Tue 20 Oct; Moody's Fri 23 Oct (unverified); full vote 17 Nov	—	OAT +3.8bp Monday while Bunds rallied; a censure threat or downgrade widens the spread, RN support or an ECB signal narrows it	V025
8	Dollar squeeze and the yen	DXY 102.56–102.59; USD/JPY 158.63; legacy specs built dollar length	—	A hot CPI extends it; USD/JPY toward 160 brings MoF risk	Short-dated USD/JPY puts as intervention optionality
9	China data disappoint	CPI/PPI and trade Wed; credit 13–15; Q3 GDP Mon 19	—	Iron ore −8.1% on the month and weak post-holiday steel restocking; hits ASX materials and AUD	AUD/CNH; materials underweight inside V006
10	Fed independence and the midterms	Cook hearing 5 Nov (single source); midterms 3 Nov	—	Term premium up, dollar down on an independence shock; BofA flags a Democratic sweep as a >10% equity downside catalyst (secondary)	Steepeners; Q4 collars
11	Crypto de-risking continues	BTC ETFs −$679m last week; BTC ≈$82.6k	—	A dollar at 18-month highs and ETF outflows weigh on the high-beta end	No crypto view open

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold. Technical inputs attributed.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	7,807.24	7,788 (20d) · 7,760 (50d) · 7,737 (100d) · 7,695 (200d)	7,818.93 (record close) · 7,850	MAs from Investing.com as of 9 Oct (single source; timeframe unconfirmed)
Nasdaq-100	30,664.70	30,685 (100d) · 30,019 (200d)	30,898 (50d) · 30,918 (20d)	Below its 20d and 50d since last week
UST 5s30s · 2s10s	58bp par (9 Oct) · 44bp	50 (V030 closes) · 57 (entry)	64 (7 Oct) · 65 (V030 upgrades, with 30y par > 5.70%)	No par row 12 Oct
UST 30y · 10y · 2y (par, 9 Oct)	5.60 · 5.24 · 4.80%	5.56 · 5.20 · 4.75	5.70 (V030 leg) · 5.31 (5 Oct) · 4.84	Cash reopens tonight
OAT–Bund	132.5bp (9 Oct, dedicated)	80 (V025 closes) · 127.4 (6 Oct)	139.8 (8 Oct) · 146.9 (one-year high)	OAT 10y 4.905% on TE (+3.8bp Mon)
Gilt 10y	5.44%	5.35	5.51 (19-yr high)	Vendor
ACGB 10y · 30y	5.33% · 5.80%	5.30 · 5.75	5.41 · 5.89 (record)	TE and ASX futures agree
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	102.56 · 1.1160 · 158.63	102.10 · 1.1100 · 158.08	102.60 · 1.1200 · 160	Monday ranges (Investing.com); round numbers
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.6979 (RBA) · 1.2447 (RBA)	0.6933 · 1.2250 (V023 closes)	0.6996 · 0.7000 · 1.2500	0.6996 is Monday's NY high (Investing.com)
Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov)	≈$106.7 · ≈$93.7	$102.39 (Mon low) · $100.20 · $86.53–89.53 (V024)	$107.23 (Mon high) · $110	Vendor closes; no exchange settle
Gold · Copper (COMEX)	$4,166.30 · ≈$6.73/lb	$4,153.80 (Mon low) · $4,133	$4,218.10 (Mon high) · $4,250	Kitco range
S&P/ASX 200	8,783.2	8,716.6 (9 Oct) · 8,661	8,803 (SPI settle) · 8,825 (SPI high) · 8,900 (V006 closes)	Two closes above 8,900 needed
KOSPI · TAIEX · Hang Seng	6,384 · 49,302 · ≈24,271	6,300 · 48,769 (Mon low) · 23,786	6,626 · 49,822 (6 Oct record) · 24,500	Prior closes and round numbers
IG / HY / CCC OAS	82 / 315 / 1,252bp (8 Oct)	CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 305 (V017 to Med on two prints)	HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,252 (high)	FRED; 9 and 12 Oct not posted
Bitcoin	≈$82,600	$80,507 (8 Oct low) · $80,000	$84,000 · $85,659	No view open

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was rejected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:05 AEDT Tuesday, with Asia, Australia and Europe drafted first under the Tuesday–Friday timing protocol. The US-close block was fetched last, from about 07:20 to 08:15 AEDT. AP's Monday tabulation posted at about 08:10 AEDT (La Nación syndication) and every index change reconciles to Friday's AP closes and to settled ETFs; the Fed Rate Monitor read used is the 16:45 ET post-close stamp. Spot checks by direct fetch: the Fed Rate Monitor, stockanalysis IWM and the AP search. Every figure was retrieved on 13 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 026

(1) RESOLVED: the TAIEX closed 49,313.44 on 8 October on the exchange's own table (TWSE MI_5MINS_HIST); the 49,433.57 carried from No. 025 was wrong. 9 October was a market holiday.
(2) Brent December 9 October settle $104.72 is now corroborated: TE's Monday change implies the same base. TE's earlier 104.43 is superseded.
(3) The CENTCOM interdiction in the Gulf of Oman early 11 October is corroborated by Al Jazeera (a Panama-flagged cargo ship disabled while running the blockade). The vessel name Ocean Molica remains single-source (JPost).
(4) The tanker we called Sun Shine appears as the LPG tanker "NV Sunshine" in Tasnim-sourced reporting (bluewin, 9 October); name variant only.
(5) Riyadh airport casualties: 12 to 13 killed and more than 300 injured (Al Jazeera, bankofvol), replacing the "3 to 12" range we carried.
(6) US Gulf shut-ins: a later figure of about 605kb/d (≈30%) (Newsquawk, citing the MMA) indicates restoration under way from the ≈63% peak; no BSEE update found.
(7) The IMF WEO: No. 026 listed a Tuesday 13:00 AEDT briefing; the October WEO was not on imf.org at filing and its date is unconfirmed.

Conflicts and how they were resolved

Brent 12 October: Investing row 106.74 vs TE 106.57; quoted as a range and labelled a vendor close. Investing's own "+3.08%" uses a phantom Sunday row (103.55) and is rejected. ASX close: ShareTrader 8,783.2 vs Investing.com 8,785.0 (a 13:07 intraday quote) and a Market Index live-blog "+69 points"; ShareTrader used, TE and ABC agree. European closes: each printed only where level/(1+change) ties to Friday's verified close; TE's DAX table 25,270.10, TE's CAC news text (7,864) and an intraday 15:05 CEST snapshot were rejected. FX: TE's currency pages and its cross table disagree on GBP, AUD, NZD, MXN and KRW; ranges shown and the RBA 4pm table used for AUD. ACGB 10y: TE country page −1.7bp vs TE table +0.1bp; the country page agrees with the ABC and ASX futures and is used. RBA meeting date: a Newsquawk preview places the September hike on 18–19 September; this note and the ledger carry 29 September, consistent with editions since then; flagged, not changed. ECB date: desks disagreed (29 vs 30 October); ecb.europa.eu has the meeting on 28–29 October, so the decision is 14:15 CET Thursday 29 October, 00:15 AEDT Friday 30 October. BoJ: the meeting is 29–30 October (boj.or.jp); centralbank.watch's 28 October is wrong. BoJ pricing: ≈12% (iTiger OIS) vs ≈25% (investingLive); range shown. Bitcoin: three aggregators within $470; range shown. US CPI y/y consensus: 3.6% vs 3.7%; range shown. China PPI consensus: 3.8% vs 4.5%; range shown.

Single-source and unverified items

KOSPI, Hang Seng, Shenzhen, Sensex and Nifty closes (TE) · TTF and platinum (TE) · the Riyadh casualty count · Iran's "third supertanker" claim (IRGC via IranWire; name and flag undisclosed) · the Fujairah missile report (Sabereen via Newsquawk; not used in the body) · LVMH Q3 figures (Newsquawk) · Fitch's France remark (Newsquawk headline) · Moody's France on 23 October (no primary calendar found) · the Cook hearing date (WSJ via Just Security) · bank RBA calls (The New Daily) · US single-stock movers (intraday wire and blog reports) · bank EPS consensus (Investing.com, heygotrade) · JPM and WFC release times (jorgai) · TSMC's date (heygotrade) · all thetrading.tools gauges · breadth (historyofmarket) · BofA Flow Show and BofA economics (Finvaulta summaries) · prediction-market odds (DeFi Rate, CryptoSlate) · the VIX close (Cboe page, delayed).

Not obtained

A post-17:00 ET settled Fed Rate Monitor refresh (the 16:45 ET read is used) · ICE and NYMEX official settles for 12 October · FRED OAS for 9 and 12 October · the OAT–Bund dedicated series for 12 October · Westmetall LME rows for 12 October · iron ore and coal for 12 October · Cotality's preliminary clearance for 10–11 October · the SPI night session · CSI 300, HS Tech, STI and NZX 50 closes · a dated Nikkei futures quote · the IMF WEO · the OPEC MOMR date · the October FMS date · Lipper and CoinShares weekly flows · Monday crypto ETF flows · Citi and Goldman release times · any ECB, BoE or MoF remarks dated Monday · midterm odds newer than 11 October.

Wednesday's first verification targets

(1) Official par for 13 October (posts ≈08:00 AEDT Wed): V030's first mark since 9 October. (2) FRED OAS for 9, 12 and 13 October: V017's mirror at HY 305bp. (3) OAT–Bund dedicated series for 12 and 13 October (V025). (4) ICE Brent December settles for 12 and 13 October (V024). (5) RBA minutes text and the NAB survey (11:30 today). (6) The Tuesday ASX close and RBA 4pm table (V006, V023). (7) A settled Fed Rate Monitor read for 12 October against the 16:45 ET post-close 23.0% used here. (8) Bank provisions from JPM, Citi, Wells and Goldman. (9) Cotality preliminary clearance for 10–11 October.

Europe and geopolitics

Commodities, credit and digital assets

Investing.com — Brent history · WTI history · TE — Brent · TE — WTI · Buckhead Energy · TE — Henry Hub · TTF · gCaptain — Isaias shut-ins · IEA — OMR · DeFi Rate — oil odds
Kitco — gold · TE — gold · copper · Westmetall — copper
FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · ConvexTrade — HY
CoinGecko · CoinMarketCap · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · tftc.io — ETF flows

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the timestamps shown and may be revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. Views are analytical framings with invalidation conditions set in advance, logged and scored in the project's views ledger. No. 027, Tuesday 13 October 2026.