The bottom line
- The Gulf escalated at sea over the weekend while Brent held its gains, and the Monday open is the first price on it. December Brent settled $104.28 on Thursday (+4.07%) and $104.72 on Friday (Investing.com history row; TE's late print was $104.43), so the week finished about +2.4%. Since the close: the IRGC said it struck the tanker Sun Shine on Friday and threatened ships "beyond Hormuz"; Iranian media reported a tanker hitting a mine on Saturday; CENTCOM disabled the Panama-flagged Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman early Sunday (single source, JPost); and Iran's Supreme National Security Council called the US reply to its seven conditions for reopening the strait "insufficient" (Fox News live). Houthi strikes hit Riyadh's King Khalid airport. Vessel counts are 0–10 a day for 8–11 October depending on provider. Offsets: Trump's Russian-diesel licence and Isaias's dissipation, which starts the restart of the roughly 63% of US Gulf output that was shut in. Futures reopen at 09:00 AEDT; nothing in the weekend flow argues for a lower open.
- Wednesday's US CPI (23:30 AEDT) now carries the October meeting, with a record Treasury short on the other side. Consensus is +0.6% m/m, 3.6–3.7% y/y headline and +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y core (Reuters poll via Kitco; Mitrade); the Cleveland Fed nowcast has 3.60% and core 2.39%. The settled Fed Rate Monitor read (00:35 ET Saturday) has 18.4% for an October hike and 82.9% for at least one by December. UMich's preliminary October survey put one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% and five-to-ten-year at 3.5%, both up a tenth. Leveraged funds are net short 6.76m Treasury contracts across the six CBOT legs (CFTC, 6 October), up 183k in a week and the largest total this ledger has recorded. An energy-driven hot headline is already in the consensus, so core decides the reaction: 0.3% would lift the October odds, while 0.1% would meet a market carrying record Treasury shorts into a bond holiday.
- The S&P recovered Thursday's AI loss and closed within eight points of its record; the banks report into a −9% month. AP has the S&P at 7,811.54 (+0.59%), +1.2% on the week, against a record close of 7,818.93; the Dow rose 0.83% and the Russell 0.46%, though the Russell fell 0.9% on the week. Telecoms fell more than 7% on SpaceX's ~$8bn spectrum purchase and Delta cut its 2026 EPS range on fuel. The Nasdaq-100 is still below its 20- and 50-day averages (Investing.com) while the S&P is above all four. JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells report Tuesday, BofA and Morgan Stanley Wednesday, ASML Wednesday and TSMC Thursday. FactSet's Q3 blended growth is 29.6% on a forward P/E of 19.1×. The SKEW replica reads 154.3, so downside protection is no longer cheap, which changes how any replacement hedge would be written.
- CCC spreads set another series high and HY followed for a second session: V017 meets its upgrade condition and moves to High. FRED has 8 October at CCC 1,252bp (+23), HY 315bp (+6) and IG 82bp (unchanged). Since Friday 2 October CCC is +50bp, HY +5bp and IG −3bp; the same-day CCC/IG ratio is about 15.3×. The view's pre-written conviction trigger needed HY widening alongside CCC on more than one session; 7 and 8 October both qualify. We write the mirror at the same time: back to Med if HY prints below 305bp on two consecutive FRED observations. Bank earnings this week are the first read on loan-loss provisions.
- The ASX rose 0.64% on Friday to 8,716.6 and ended the week up 0.40%; the minutes and the jobs report decide its week. IT and consumer discretionary rose 2.2% each and nine of eleven sectors gained (ShareTrader); December SPI futures settled the Friday day session at 8,749, 32 points over cash, but the overnight session was not published and there is no verified implied open. US equities rose 0.6% after that settle. November RBA pricing is ≈26–30% (centralbank.watch ASX data and TE), from 22% a week earlier. The ACGB 10-year fell about 4bp to 5.35–5.36% with JGBs and gilts. AUD/USD closed 0.6984 in New York, its first weekly gain in five; on the RBA table AUD/NZD was 1.2416. V006 is 3.21% in favour, V023 166 pips above its exit.
- The long end rallied on the week, the curve flattened on Friday, and the OAT spread compressed after Lagarde's "unwarranted" remark. Official par for Friday: 2y 4.80%, 10y 5.24%, 30y 5.60%, with 5s30s at 58bp (from 64bp on Wednesday) and 2s10s 44bp; on the week the curve fell 3–4bp across the board. V030 is 1bp in the money and 8bp from its stop. JGB 30-year yields fell 15bp on the week to 4.06%. The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 132.5bp for Friday (139.8bp Thursday), 14bp tighter on the week; V025 stays 38.5bp in the money. The French Assembly votes on the budget's revenue half on Tue 20 Oct; Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 Oct. Gold rose 1.48% to $4,193.60 (Kitco) and bitcoin is about $83,800.
Weekend and Friday recap
United States: equities recovered, the front end sold off
AP's tabulation: the S&P 500 rose 46.18 points (+0.59%) to 7,811.54, the Dow 423.31 (+0.83%) to 51,654.95, the Nasdaq Composite 172.83 (+0.64%) to 27,366.17 and the Russell 2000 12.85 (+0.46%) to 2,806.98. Every point change reconciles to Thursday's AP closes, and settled ETFs agree (SPY +0.60%, DIA +0.87%, QQQ +0.49%, IWM +0.49%; stockanalysis, 16:00 stamp). The Nasdaq-100 closed about 30,883 (+0.51%; Investing.com, single source). The VIX closed 14.84 (−0.57; Cboe page stamped 20:15 ET), the lowest close since 2 October on FRED's series.
Three things drove Friday. Trump said US–Iran talks were "productive" and that the US would not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms; he announced that Russia would supply diesel to the US (300kt immediately, 500kt in November, then 1Mt and 3Mt "depending on refinery condition"), and Treasury issued a general licence for Russian diesel imports to 7 April 2027 (RFE/RL, Al Jazeera; the Kremlin confirmed only "readiness to supply"); and AI stocks recovered after reports that OpenAI expects at least $70bn of annualised revenue by year-end, against the ~$50bn end-September figure the FT reported on Thursday. Telecom carriers were the outlier: Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile each fell more than 7% (Yahoo) after SpaceX agreed to buy Grain Management's low-band spectrum for about $8bn. Moderna rose about 9% and Humana about 12–14% intraday. Delta missed and cut its 2026 adjusted EPS range to $5.10–5.60 from $6.50–7.50 on fuel.
Rates and data. On the official par curve the 2-year rose 5bp to 4.80%, the 5-year 3bp to 5.02%, the 10-year 2bp to 5.24% and the 30-year was unchanged at 5.60%: a bear flattener, 5s30s 58bp and 2s10s 44bp. Thursday's row, which we did not have on Friday, had 2y 4.75%, 5y 4.99%, 10y 5.22%, 30y 5.60% (5s30s 61bp). UMich's preliminary October sentiment fell to 46.3 (consensus ≈47.6; prior 48.1), the lowest since May, with current conditions 44.7 and expectations 47.3; one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and the long-run measure to 3.5%. The bond market and the Fed's statistical releases are closed today for Columbus Day; equities trade.
Europe: a broad rebound, France lagged
The Stoxx 600 rose 0.97% to 631.55 (flat on the week), the Euro Stoxx 50 0.76% to about 6,173, the DAX 1.13% to 25,087.27 (back above 25,000), the CAC 0.95% to 7,803.33, the FTSE 100 1.06% to 10,552.05, the FTSE MIB 0.91% and the SMI about 1.1%. Autos rose on an interim EU–China deal on plug-in hybrid exports (BMW and VW +2.1%; Alliance News), and Vodafone fell 4.9% and BT 2.4% on the SpaceX spectrum news. The CAC lagged on budget uncertainty (Zonebourse headline). Friday's European closes also settle two of last week's conflicts (CAC and IBEX; see §13). S&P affirmed the UK at AA, stable, after the close.
Asia: Hong Kong led, Japan flat, Korea and Taiwan shut
The Hang Seng rose 1.79% to 24,211.35, led by Xiaomi (+9.7% on pre-orders) and Tencent (+3.3%). The Nikkei closed 69,030.92 (−0.02%), +1.06% on the week (exchange archive), and TOPIX rose 0.33%. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.05% to about 3,813.8 (−0.74% on the week) and the CSI 300 0.16%. India rebounded from a 32-month low: Sensex +1.23%, Nifty +1.30%, led by TCS after results. Singapore's STI slipped 0.20% to its lowest since early July. Korea (Hangul Day) and Taiwan (National Day) were shut. The PBoC's Friday fix was not obtained.
The weekend: the Gulf at sea, talks on land
Iran and Hormuz. The IRGC Navy said on Friday it struck the engine room of the tanker Sun Shine for using an "unauthorised route"; UKMTO reported an LPG carrier hit 13nm west of Al-Jazira, UAE, with a major fire later controlled. The IRGC said ships "violating" its rules will be pursued beyond Hormuz and that companies cooperating with the US will have their whole fleets targeted (Euronews). On Saturday Iranian state media reported an unnamed tanker hitting a mine in the strait (unverified). Early Sunday CENTCOM disabled the Panama-flagged Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman after it tried to run the blockade of Iranian ports, and UKMTO reported an outbound tanker hit by a projectile (JPost; single source). On Sunday the secretary of Iran's SNSC called the US response to Tehran's seven conditions "insufficient" and threatened US infrastructure in the Gulf, including cables and data centres; Bessent said economic pressure will continue (Fox News live). Peace talks are reported as planned for this week; we found no record of weekend talks. Yemen and Saudi Arabia: Houthi strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid airport killed between three and twelve people according to differing reports, including an American, and a second attack hit Terminal 4 on Sunday; Trump said the US could join Saudi-led strikes on the Houthis. This is the Yemen theatre, not Maysan in Iraq.
Russia–Ukraine. US, European, Commission, NATO and Ukrainian envoys met in Miami on Friday and Saturday without a breakthrough; Witkoff called the talks constructive. Zelensky called the diesel deal "a gift to Putin" and said Kyiv would stop refinery strikes only if Russia stops hitting Ukraine's grid. Putin said an immediate resumption of talks is unlikely. US–China was quiet: the Busan truce runs to 10 January 2027 and the next leaders' meeting is in Shenzhen in November. Elsewhere: an M8 earthquake in Panama (the canal says it is operating normally); Brazil's runoff is 25 October and Israel votes on 27 October.
The week in one paragraph
From Friday 2 October to Friday 9 October the S&P rose 1.2% (a record close of 7,818.93 on Tuesday, an AI-hardware sell-off on Thursday, recovered Friday), the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. Official par yields fell 3–4bp at every tenor after three well-bid coupon auctions; 5s30s round-tripped from 57bp to 64bp and back to 58bp. December Brent rose about 2.4% to $104.72 on Gulf attacks and Isaias, with a high of $105.92 on Thursday. CCC spreads widened 50bp to a new high while IG tightened 3bp. Gold rose about 1.3%, LME copper 2.3% and the dollar index 0.3%. The OAT–Bund spread fell 14bp on its own series. The ASX 200 rose 0.40%, the Nikkei 1.06% and the Stoxx 600 was flat. One view closed (V028, wrong), none opened.
This morning's setup
At a 06:00 Sydney Monday start no indicative opens exist: CME Globex reopens at 09:00 AEDT and FX is thin until Wellington. The last SPI price is Friday's 8,749 day settle, and the S&P rose 0.6% after it. The ASX opens with the US bond market shut tonight, Japan closed today and Canada on holiday, so the first full cross-asset price on the weekend's Gulf news comes in Europe. IMF/World Bank meetings open in Bangkok; the WEO briefing is Tuesday 13:00 AEDT.
Market dashboard
Week to Friday 9 October: change against Friday 2 October
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% | +1.15% | ⭐ Verified (AP tabulation). SPY +0.60% at the 16:00 stamp. 7.4 points below the 6 Oct record close |
| Nasdaq Composite · Nasdaq-100 | 27,366.17 · ≈30,883 | +0.64% · +0.51% | +0.64% · — | Composite AP. NDX single source (Investing.com), corroborated in direction by QQQ +0.49% |
| Dow Jones | 51,654.95 | +0.83% | +0.93% | AP; DIA +0.87% |
| Russell 2000 · VIX | 2,806.98 · 14.84 | +0.46% · −3.7% | −0.91% · −0.47pt | Russell AP (TheStreet 2,808.57, pre-final). VIX verified (Cboe); VIX3M 17.77 (replica) |
| Stoxx 600 · Euro Stoxx 50 | 631.55 · ≈6,173 | +0.97% · +0.76% | +0.03% · −1.04% | Stoxx ties exactly to 625.51; ES50 single source (TE), ties to Thursday |
| DAX · CAC 40 | 25,087.27 · 7,803.33 | +1.13% · +0.95% | −0.57% · −1.19% | Verified (MarketScreener). CAC implies Thursday ≈7,730, settling last week's variant |
| FTSE 100 · FTSE MIB · SMI | 10,552.05 · ≈49,746 · ≈13,787 | +1.06% · +0.91% · +1.10% | +0.9% · −1.46% · +0.93% | FTSE verified (Alliance News). MIB corroborated; it implies Thursday ≈49,298 (correction, §13). SMI single source |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 69,030.92 · 4,104.81 | −0.02% · +0.33% | +1.06% · +0.34% | Nikkei from the exchange archive. Tokyo closed today |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | ≈3,813.8 · 4,317.25 | +0.05% · +0.16% | −0.74% · — | TE only; a second TE item has Shanghai +0.10% at 3,816 |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 24,211.35 · — | +1.79% · — | — | Corroborated (TE, ties to 23,785.79). Xiaomi +9.7%. HS Tech not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 6,625.93 · 49,313.44 | shut | — | Thursday closes; both markets shut Friday. TAIEX conflicts with the 49,433.57 we carried (§13) |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 · STI | 72,472.33 · 22,520.45 · 5,401.89 | +1.23% · +1.30% · −0.20% | ≈+0.8% · — · ≈−4% | TE; India rebounded from a 32-month low. STI lowest since early July |
| S&P/ASX 200 · NZX 50 | 8,716.6 · 13,749 | +0.64% · +0.42% | +0.40% · ≈+0.5% | ⭐ ASX verified (Investing.com row, ShareTrader, TE); closed on its high. SPI Dec day settle 8,749 (ASX EOD report); overnight session not published |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST par, 9 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.80 · 5.02 · 5.24 · 5.60% | +5 · +3 · +2 · 0bp | −3 · −4 · −4 · −3bp | ⭐ Verified against the Treasury's page. 5s30s 58bp, 2s10s 44bp. 8 Oct row: 4.75 · 4.99 · 5.22 · 5.60 (5s30s 61bp). No row today (Columbus Day) |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.42% · 5.94% | 0 · 0bp | +4 · +3bp | Vendor (TE). Gilt 2y 4.74% |
| Bund · OAT · BTP · Spain 10y | ≈3.47–3.49 · 4.87 · 4.59 · 4.10% | ≈−1 · −2 · −3 · −3bp | ≈+3 · 0 · −2 · — | Vendor (TE). TE's Bund page carries three figures (3.486 / 3.47 / 3.45); range shown |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 132.5bp (9 Oct) · 139.8bp (8 Oct) | −7.3 | −14.4 (vs 146.9) | ⭐ V025's mark (ideal-investisseur; same-page legs OAT 4.80 / Bund 3.47) |
| JGB 2y · 10y · 30y | 1.91 · 3.02 · 4.06% | −2 · −7 · −12bp | −2 · −9 · −15bp | Vendor (TE). 10y at a two-week low after ≈3.12% on 6 Oct |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y | 4.90–4.91 · 5.35–5.36 · 5.82% | ≈+1 · −4 · −6bp | +2 · +2bp · — | TE and ASX futures settles (3y 95.090, 10y 94.645) agree within 1bp. AU–US 10y ≈+11bp (derived on par) |
| Canada 10y · Swiss 10y | 3.88% · 0.56% | −5 · −1bp | — | Vendor. Canada lost 68.3k jobs in September |
| US IG · HY OAS (8 Oct) | 82 · 315bp | 0 · +6bp | −3 · +5bp | ⭐ Verified (FRED); HY corroborated (ConvexTrade). 9 Oct not posted |
| US CCC OAS (8 Oct) | 1,252bp | +23bp | +50bp | ⭐ Verified. New series high (prior 1,229 on 7 Oct). Seven straight widenings. CCC/IG ≈15.3× |
| FX | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.21 | +0.05% | +0.28% | TE late NY. Mitrade prints 101.90 (conflict, §13). TE calls it a fourth weekly gain (unverified) |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | 1.1196 · 1.3233 | −0.09% · +0.08% | −0.53% · −0.07% | TE late NY; Alliance at the London close agrees |
| USD/JPY | 158.33 | +0.29% | +0.30% | Investing.com (range 157.76–158.43); TE 158.23 corroborates. Yen's fourth weekly loss. No fresh MoF language found |
| AUD/USD · NZD/USD | 0.6984 · 0.5612 | +0.43% · +0.20% | +0.47% · flat | NY close (Investing, TE). Week from ShareTrader (0.69554 → 0.69880). RBA 4pm: 0.6979 (+0.33%; +0.66% on the RBA basis) |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2416 | +0.02% | +0.49% | ⭐ RBA 4pm table (verified). NY legs 1.2445 (derived) — different basis, not netted. 166 pips above V023's exit |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4255 · 0.8291 | +0.21% · −0.32% | +0.01% · +0.04% | TE. Canada closed today |
| USD/CNY · fix | 6.6926 · — | −0.16% | — | TE onshore (corroborated only). Friday fix not obtained; a 6.7973 "estimate" in one feed is rejected as a typo. Today's fix 12:15 AEDT |
| USD/MXN · USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/BRL | 18.395 · 96.47 · 1,340.44 · 4.987 | +1.15% · −0.37% · −0.14% · −0.72% | +1.28% · +0.35% · −0.22% · — | TE. Second straight ~1.2% peso fall; cause not found. Legacy CFTC specs cut MXN length by 41.7k |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | $104.72 (9 Oct settle) | +0.42% | +2.42% | 9 Oct: Investing history row (single source); TE late 104.43, Alliance 104.86 at the London close. 8 Oct settle $104.28 (+4.07%) corroborated (Investing, The Nation). Range Fri 102.33–105.09 |
| WTI NOVEMBER | $91.85 | +0.39% | +0.81% | Corroborated (Investing, Buckhead, Newsquawk). 8 Oct settle $91.49. US Gulf shut-ins peaked ≈63% (≈1.3mb/d) |
| Henry Hub · TTF · JKM | $3.20 · €80.25 · $25.98 | +1.1% · +1.8% · +0.1% | TE board | Board weekly column not recomputed (TE board change column unreliable) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,193.60 | +1.48% | ≈+1.3% | ⭐ Kitco bid (ask $4,195.60); TE $4,193.87 corroborates. Week is TE's own figure |
| Silver · Platinum | $60.80 · $1,695.40 | +2.75% · +3.25% | — | TE board |
| Copper LME cash / 3M | $14,689 / $14,570 | ≈+1.2% | +2.33% · +1.75% | Westmetall (verified). Backwardation $119/t; stocks 233,025t, sixth straight fall. COMEX $6.663/lb |
| Aluminium · Iron ore 62% · Newcastle coal | $3,056 · $90.68/t · $148.85/t | +0.5% · −0.3% · −0.4% | — · −0.7% · — | TE. Iron ore −8.1% on the month; coal hit ≈$152 on 6 Oct, a two-year high |
| Bitcoin | ≈$83,800 | +1.0–1.1% (24h) | ≈−2 to −3% (7d) | CoinGecko $83,783 / CoinDesk $83,890, ≈19:05 UTC Sun. Quiet weekend; 7d derived from CoinGecko's 4 Oct snapshot |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,539 · $112 · $1.41 · $753 | +1.5% · +2.1% · +1.0% · — | — | Total cap $2.91tn; BTC dominance 57.8% (CoinGecko). 7d signs not shown by source |
| Spot ETF flows (week) | BTC −$678.9m · ETH −$542.2m | 9 Oct: +$21.1m · −$56.1m | verified (Farside) | ETH ten straight outflow days. 9 Oct rows partly placeholders (0.0), may be revised |
Conventions: 1d is against Thursday 8 October's close; 1w is against Friday 2 October. US equity figures are AP's. The Treasury row is official par. FX is TE late New York unless marked RBA 4pm; the two bases are never blended. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which. Monday indicative opens do not exist at filing time.
What is driving markets
1. Oil: the physical risk is in the price and the weekend added to it
December Brent settled $100.20 on Wednesday, $104.28 on Thursday and $104.72 on Friday; the week's gain was about 2.4% with a $105.92 high. Two shocks arrived together and one is now unwinding. Isaias took US Gulf shut-ins from 25.1% of oil output on Wednesday to roughly 63% (≈1.3mb/d) by Friday (AP via ABC News 4 has "more than two-thirds"; a Newsquawk headline had 71.5%); the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Sunday morning, so platform re-manning is the next input and it is bearish at the margin. The Gulf shock is not unwinding. Attack tempo in and around Hormuz was the highest of the war in the week to 5 October (at least 12 incidents; Euronews), the IRGC now claims a right to pursue ships beyond the strait, and CENTCOM has disabled four blockade runners in three months, the latest on Sunday (JPost, single source). Vessel counts are 0–10 a day for 8–11 October across Windward (8 transits on 8 October), Kpler (7–10 on 6–7 October) and tankermap (0 on 10 and 11 October, AIS-visible tankers only), against roughly 125 a day before the war. Russian diesel under a US general licence is a products story, not a crude one, and Russia exported only about 190kb/d of diesel in Q3 (RFE/RL). Polymarket prices about 38% for WTI at or above $100 in October (aggregator; its ladder is internally inconsistent).
2. The long end is priced off supply and term premium; this week it rallied
Official par yields fell 3–4bp at every tenor over the week (2-year 4.83%→4.80%, 10-year 5.28%→5.24%, 30-year 5.63%→5.60%) after three well-bid coupon auctions, including a 30-year that tailed 0.1bp with 6.79% to dealers. The steepening of the first half (5s30s to 64bp on Wednesday) reversed in the second: 61bp on Thursday as the long end rallied, 58bp on Friday as the 2-year sold off 5bp on UMich inflation expectations. Abroad the long end also eased: the JGB 30-year fell 15bp on the week to 4.06%, the gilt 10-year closed 5.42% after touching 5.51% on Thursday, and ACGB 10s fell about 4bp on Friday. Against that, leveraged funds added 183k contracts of Treasury shorts in the week to 6 October, all in the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year, while covering 144k in the bond and ultra-bond. That is consistent with basis and curve positioning, which the CFTC data cannot prove.
3. Credit: the stress at the bottom of the scale is now reaching HY
The CCC index has widened for seven straight sessions, from 1,157bp on 29 September to 1,252bp on 8 October, a new high on FRED's series. On 7 and 8 October HY widened alongside it (+6bp each, to 315bp) while IG held at 82bp: stress concentrated in the weakest names and leaking upward, with high grade still bid. The same picture appears in flows and equities: BofA's Flow Show counted the largest weekly money-fund inflow since April 2020 (+$166.4bn) and a $3.0bn outflow from financials (secondary summary), the S&P banks index is down about 9% in a month (Reuters via Kitco), and the Fear & Greed replica's junk-bond-demand component fell to 45 from 72. We did not find a single credit event behind the move; read as a repricing of refinancing risk at 5%-plus long rates, which is a house inference.
4. AI hardware: Thursday's de-rating was recovered in price, not in leadership
The FT's Thursday report put OpenAI's annualised revenue "approaching $50bn" at end-September, about $20bn below last month's figure (Euronews, AFP); semiconductors fell 3.4% that day. Friday's counter-report that OpenAI expects at least $70bn by year-end brought a partial recovery (QQQ +0.49%). The leadership has not repaired: the Nasdaq-100 is below its 20-day (30,918) and 50-day (30,898) averages while the S&P is above all four of its averages, and the replica SKEW index jumped to 154.3 on 9 October from 141.8 on 7 October. Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit was ₩107.4tn and TSMC's September revenue +54.6% y/y, so the earnings are not the question; the financing and monetisation of capex is, which is a house reading.
5. Australia: the hike has landed on mortgages; the RBA's own account comes Tuesday
Big-four variable rates rose 25bp from Friday. The demand evidence remains weak: Westpac-MI sentiment 80.4 (6 October), Cotality's final clearance rate for the week to 4 October 45.4% with Brisbane at 21.2%, its lowest since November 2008, and auction volumes 38% below a year ago. The market has moved the other way: November pricing is ≈26–30% (centralbank.watch's ASX-data schedule 27.9%, its summary 26.0%, TE about 30%) from 22% on 7 October. Westpac and ANZ forecast a November hike to 4.85%; NAB sees 4.60% as the peak; CBA has reserved its call. The ASX 200 rose 0.40% on the week on REITs, utilities and healthcare, while tech and materials fell; iron ore is down 8.1% on the month.
6. Europe: the spread compressed again on the ECB's language
The dedicated OAT–Bund series: 146.9bp on 2 October, 127.4 on the 6th, 134.4 on the 7th, 139.8 on the 8th and 132.5 on the 9th. Friday's 7bp compression followed Lagarde's remark that the ECB has tools against "unwarranted" market moves (investingLive; only that word is quoted). The ECB is priced for a hold on 29 October (Reuters poll: 70 of 73) and a December hike (64 of 73). France's Assembly votes on the revenue half of the PLF on Tue 20 Oct and on the whole budget on 17 November; the RN's 122 deputies are pivotal and the left has pledged to support censure. Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 Oct (Aa3, negative).
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing: implied probabilities by meeting, settled Friday read against Thursday's post-close read
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct | October hike 18.4% (settled, 00:35 ET Sat), from 16.1% post-close Thursday. December: 68.4% one hike, 14.5% two, so 82.9% for at least one. Prediction markets ≈16% for October (aggregator, 10 Oct) | Hawkish, December |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 | ≈26–30% for 3 Nov (centralbank.watch ASX data "as of 2026-10-10": 27.9% schedule, 26.0% summary; TE ≈30%); Dec ≈46–54% cumulative; Feb ≈92%. Westpac, ANZ hike; NAB peak 4.60%; CBA reserved | Tightening bias |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 | DFR priced to 2.72% by December (TE, 9 Oct), ≈88% of a hike (derived). Reuters poll: 70/73 hold in October, 64/73 hike in December, 58% see a 2.75% peak | December over October |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | 88.8% hike (+22.2bp); December cumulative 94.9% (centralbank.watch, 9 Oct). Bailey (8 Oct): tolerance for energy inflation "thinning". Budget Wed 28 Oct | Hawkish |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct (boj.or.jp; Outlook Report) | About 25% for October (FXStreet 6 Oct, VT Markets 7 Oct; pre-Friday). Sato now backs hikes "in several stages" | Gradual; December favoured |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 ✅ resolved (rbnz.govt.nz: "2:00pm, 28 Oct 2026") | No reliable OIS read; centralbank.watch's BKBM method flags itself as overstating (+57bp by Feb) | Removing stimulus |
| BoC | 2.25% | Seven holds in 2026 | Thu 29 Oct 00:45 | ≈27% October hike, 88% December (MPA, 9 Oct). September jobs −68.3k, unemployment 6.5% | Hike case damaged |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Unchanged | Fix today 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct | 8 Oct fix 6.7367 vs 6.7254 estimate; "neither the need nor the intention to weaken" the yuan (8 Oct) | On hold |
| RBI · BoK · MAS | 5.50% · 3.00% · — | RBI +25bp 7 Oct, 6–0 | RBI 4 Dec · BoK Thu 22 Oct · MAS late Oct (date unresolved) | DBS expects MAS to steepen the slope slightly (9 Oct) | Tightening |
| SNB · Riksbank · Norges | 0.00% · 1.75% · 4.50% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep | SNB 10 Dec · Riksbank Wed 4 Nov · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Not refreshed this edition | Mixed |
| Banxico · BCB · BI · CBRT | 6.50% · 13.75% · 5.75% · 37.00% | BCB −25bp 16 Sep | BI 21 Oct · CBRT 22 Oct · Banxico 6 Nov | USD/MXN +1.15% Friday, second day of ≈1.2% weakness (cause not found) | Holds |
Fed. The settled read moved October up 2.3 points from Thursday's post-close, on a session in which the 2-year rose 5bp after UMich's one-year expectations reached 4.7%. Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks in Bangkok with the IMF's Georgieva at 23:30 ET Thursday (14:30 AEDT Friday), the last scheduled chair appearance before the blackout; Waller speaks on AI on Tuesday and Bowman twice on Wednesday (Fed calendar, times as listed). The Beige Book lands at 05:00 AEDT Thursday. BofA's economists forecast a hike in both October and December (secondary summary), outside consensus.
RBA. No speech or weekend commentary was found. The minutes are the first read on whether the Board's unanimous September hike was framed as a one-off adjustment or the start of a sequence; they land the same minute as the NAB survey. The next RBA speakers are Kent (18 and 19 October) and Hauser (21 October), per the RBA's diary.
BoJ and the yen. USD/JPY at 158.33 is about 1% from 160; no fresh Ministry of Finance warning was found this week. The IMF meetings in Bangkok are the next venue for currency language.
Regional briefs
United States
Equities near a record, consumers at their gloomiest since May. The S&P gained 1.2% on the week to 7,811.54; UMich sentiment fell to 46.3 with one-year inflation expectations 4.7%. The September CPI (Wed), PPI and retail sales (Thu; retail consensus +0.3% after +1.2%) make this the heaviest data week before the 27–28 October FOMC. Earnings start with the banks; FactSet has 84% of the 19 early reporters beating and a bottom-up 12-month target of 9,290.58. Politics: prediction markets give Democrats about 90% for the House and 60–62% for the Senate (aggregator, 11 Oct); Trump set up a committee to investigate allegations against Governor Lisa Cook. Treasury named Judy Shelton a counselor to Bessent. The government is funded to 11 December.
Euro area
A rebound with France lagging. The DAX regained 25,000 on Friday (+1.13%) and the Stoxx 600 finished flat on the week. An interim EU–China agreement on plug-in hybrid exports lifted autos. France's PLF 2027 targets a 5.0% deficit; the revenue vote is Tuesday week and the RN's position is the swing factor. Spain's 10-year is 4.10% ahead of its 29 November election. Germany will nominate a successor to Schnabel on the ECB board and is not seeking the presidency (FT via Newsquawk). Kazāks said 2.5% is the top of neutral. Data this week are second-tier: German final CPI (Tue), August industrial production (Thu), final September HICP (Fri, 3.8%).
United Kingdom
Gilts steadied after a 19-year high. The 10-year closed 5.42% on Friday after touching 5.51% on Thursday; the 30-year 5.94%. S&P affirmed AA, stable. A November hike is about 89% priced. Labour held Holborn & St Pancras with 45% against the Greens' 33%. The FTSE 100 rose 1.06% on Friday and 0.9% on the week. This week: a 2063 gilt tender (Tue), a 2030 auction (Wed) and August GDP (Thu 17:00 AEDT; consensus −0.1% m/m). The labour-market report is Tuesday week. The Budget is Wed 28 Oct.
Japan
Long JGBs rallied hard; markets shut today. The 30-year fell 15bp on the week to 4.06% and the 10-year 9bp to 3.02%, a two-week low. The Nikkei finished the week +1.06% at 69,030.92. Takaichi has pledged a cut in the consumption tax on food without new bond issuance (TE, single source). The BoJ's 30 October meeting carries an Outlook Report; October pricing is about one in four on pre-Friday reads. PPI (Tue 10:50 AEDT; 7.6%) and core machinery orders (Thu) are this week's data.
China & Hong Kong
Hong Kong rallied, the mainland stalled after Golden Week. The Hang Seng rose 1.79% on Friday; the Shanghai Composite was flat and −0.74% on the week. The NDRC pledged more policy tools to meet targets (Bloomberg headline, 10 Oct). The week's data: September CPI and PPI (Wed 12:30 AEDT; CPI consensus 0.9–1.1%, PPI ≈4.4% per TE), trade (Wed ≈14:00) and credit (13–15 Oct; new-loan consensus conflicts at CNY300bn vs 975bn). Q3 GDP is Mon 19 Oct (prior 4.3%). The US–China truce runs to 10 January; Xi and Trump meet in Shenzhen in November.
Emerging Asia & LatAm
India bounced, Singapore slid, the peso weakened again. Sensex +1.23% and Nifty +1.30% on Friday, led by TCS after results; the rupee is about 96.5. Singapore's STI fell about 4% on the week to its lowest since early July. Korea and Taiwan return today after Friday holidays; TSMC reports Thursday. USD/MXN rose 1.15% on Friday and 1.3% on the week while legacy CFTC speculators cut peso length by 41.7k contracts. Brazil's runoff is 25 October: Bolsonaro led round one 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%. Indonesia's JCI is down 26% on the year (TE).
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA: pricing drifted higher again
The cash rate is 4.60%. November pricing is ≈26–30% on the ASX-data tracker and TE, December ≈46–54% cumulative and February ≈92%: roughly 23bp over three meetings. The 3-year ACGB at 4.90% sits about 30bp over cash, a little over one hike. Bank calls: Westpac and ANZ expect 4.85% in November (Westpac conditions it on no lasting Middle East resolution); NAB sees 4.60% as the peak; CBA has reserved its call, with its CEO saying September was probably the last hike but December is "live". The RBA's own research (6 October) estimated that a 20% fall in AI stocks could cut spending by about 2.5% if it spread to wider equities. Next: minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30, labour force Thu 15 Oct 11:30, RBA Annual Report Thu afternoon, Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct 11:30, decision Tue 3 Nov 14:30.
Markets: a recovery Friday and a small weekly gain
Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,716.6 (+55.7, +0.64%) on its high, volume 724m (Investing.com; ShareTrader and TE agree), and +0.40% on the week from 8,682.1. The All Ords closed 8,877.7; the Small Ords fell 1.34% on the week. Friday's sectors (ShareTrader): IT +2.2%, discretionary +2.2%, real estate +1.8%; telecoms −0.6% the weakest. Movers: Pro Medicus +4.5%, WiseTech +4.2%, Goodman +3.2%, QBE +3.2%, Transurban +2.3%; BHP −0.4%. Weekly sectors: REITs +3.7%, utilities +3.6%, healthcare +3.5%; tech −2.0%, materials −1.0% (SmallCaps). Firmus withdrew its US$5.5bn IPO; EOS signed a conditional counter-drone contract worth about £370m; PLS fell intraday as Chinese lithium futures hit their lowest since December 2025. Glencore lists on the ASX this week (Alliance). Futures: December SPI settled the day session at 8,749 (+53); the Friday-night session is booked to 12 October and was not published.
Rates and currency. ACGB 3-year 4.90–4.91%, 10-year 5.35–5.36% (−4bp), 30-year 5.82%; ASX bond futures settles agree. The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.6979, AUD/NZD 1.2416, AUD/JPY 110.34, TWI 64.8. The New York close was 0.6984; the week ended +0.47% on ShareTrader's basis, the first weekly gain in five, without reaching 0.70.
Housing and the China link
Housing. Cotality's final clearance rate for the week to 4 October was 45.4% on 1,212 auctions (Melbourne 50.4%, Sydney 49.3%, Adelaide 32.9%, Brisbane 21.2%). The preliminary result for Saturday 10 October, the first weekend under the new mortgage rates, was not found at filing. China. Iron ore was $90.68/t on Friday (TE), −0.7% on the week and −8.1% on the month; Newcastle thermal coal $148.85/t after a two-year high near $152 on 6 October; LME copper rose 2.3% on the week with stocks down six sessions running. China's trade and inflation data on Wednesday are the week's test for the miners.
New Zealand
The NZX 50 rose 0.42% to 13,749 (TE). NZD/USD closed 0.5612. The RBNZ decision date is resolved: Wed 28 Oct, 14:00 NZDT, 12:00 AEDT, an MPR (rbnz.govt.nz homepage; TE's calendar agrees); the Tue 27 Oct listing was wrong. Q3 CPI is Thu 22 Oct 08:45 AEDT (TE's prior column looks misaligned; not quoted). This week: BusinessNZ PMI and card spending, Fri 08:30–08:45 AEDT. AUD/NZD on the RBA table is 1.2416, 0.82% above V023's entry.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈26–30% priced |
| RBA minutes (Sep meeting) | — | The hike to 4.60% | Tue 13 Oct 11:30 |
| NAB business survey (Sep) | — | Confidence −8; TE model −9 | Tue 13 Oct 11:30 |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) | 80.4 (−4.7%) | Six-month low; released 6 Oct | November survey |
| Westpac leading index | — | 0.0% | Wed 14 Oct 11:00 |
| Labour force (Sep) | — | +39.5k (full-time −6.3k), 4.6%, participation 67.1% | Thu 15 Oct 11:30 · consensus +20k, 4.6% |
| Auction clearance (final, capitals) | 45.4% | w/e 4 Oct; Brisbane 21.2% | Preliminary for 10 Oct not obtained |
| Quarterly CPI (Q3) + September monthly | — | Prior 0.6% q/q, 3.9% y/y; trimmed mean 3.6% | Wed 28 Oct 11:30 — V006's resolution date |
| ACGB 10y · 30y · AU–US 10y | 5.35–5.36% · 5.82% · ≈+11bp | 30y record 5.89% on 7 Oct | — |
House views & tactical framework
One trigger fired, and it was an upgrade. V017's written condition for higher conviction (HY widening alongside CCC on more than one session) is met by FRED's 7 and 8 October observations, so the view moves from Med to High; the mirror is written at the same time. Nothing else fired. V030 gave back 6bp from its best mark as Friday bear-flattened the curve and sits 8bp above its stop. V025 is 38.5bp in the money after a 7bp compression on Friday. V006 lost 0.6 points as the ASX rose. V023 is flat on the RBA table. V024 is marked on a single-source December settle of $104.72. We did not open an equity hedge: under our convention it belongs on NDX or SOX, and with the SKEW replica near a one-year extreme the entry is poor until after TSMC.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| US 5s30s (V030) | Steepener | Low | 1–3 mo | 58bp on official par (9 Oct: 5y 5.02%, 30y 5.60%), against a 57bp entry: +1bp. The week round-tripped from 57bp to 64bp (Wednesday) and back as the long end rallied after three strong auctions and Friday's 2-year sold off 5bp on inflation expectations. Leveraged funds added 183k shorts in 2s, 5s and 10s and covered 144k in the long contracts, a mix that leans against the steepener in a squeeze | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (8bp away). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par (both further away than on Friday). No par row on Mon 12 Oct. CPI Wed is the test |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | 132.5bp on the dedicated series for 9 October, +38.5bp from a ≈94bp entry (8 Oct 139.8; 2 Oct 146.9, the one-year high). Friday's 7bp compression followed Lagarde's "unwarranted" remark. The revenue vote (Tue 20 Oct) and Moody's (Fri 23 Oct, Aa3 negative) are both catalysts in the view's favour; RN budget support is the main threat | UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (52.5bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct or an explicit backstop signal |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High ↑ | 1–3 mo | 8 October (FRED): IG 82bp (0), HY 315bp (+6), CCC 1,252bp (+23), a new series high and the seventh straight widening. Since 2 October CCC +50bp, HY +5bp, IG −3bp: the quality split the view is built on, now with HY following. Upgraded from Med today on the condition written in No. 024–025 (HY widening alongside CCC on more than one session: 7 and 8 Oct). CCC/IG ≈15.3× | UNCHANGED EXIT: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (202bp away). NEW MIRROR (pre-committed): back to Med if HY prints below 305bp on two consecutive FRED observations. Bank provisions (13–14 Oct) are the next input |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +3.21% in favour: 8,716.6 against 9,005.9 (from +3.83% on Thursday). Friday's bounce was led by IT and discretionary; the week's leaders were defensives (REITs, utilities, healthcare) while materials and tech fell. Pricing for a November hike rose to ≈26–30%; clearance rates and sentiment are at multi-month lows | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (2.1% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct; minutes (13 Oct) and labour force (15 Oct) first |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2416 on the RBA 4pm table (9 Oct), +0.82% from ≈1.2315; +0.49% on the week on the RBA basis. The rate premise moved our way again (RBA November pricing up, the RBNZ date now confirmed for 28 Oct). V023 and V006 share an Australian driver | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (166 pips away). Dates: RBA minutes 13 Oct, AU jobs 15 Oct, NZ CPI 22 Oct, RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December settled $104.28 on 8 October (corroborated) and $104.72 on 9 October (single source). The weekend added risk (the Ocean Molica strike, the IRGC's beyond-Hormuz threat, Iran rejecting the US reply); Isaias's dissipation and Russian diesel are the offsets. The residual is the right size for this | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$15 below Friday). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms. IEA board 14–15 Oct |
Scorecard. Six open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. The open book had a mixed week's end: V017 strengthened, V025 and V030 gave back part of their gains, V006 gave back 0.6 points.
Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit at higher conviction (V017), tilted against Australian rate-sensitive equities and toward the AUD against the NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). Its uncovered risks are unchanged: a bull or bear flattener around CPI, which hurts V030 either way if the front end leads, and an AI-hardware-led equity sell-off. The credit view partly covers the second.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are as of Tuesday 6 October (released Friday 9 October; every page reads "positions as of 10/06/26"). Net figures and weekly changes are derived from the long and short columns. Gold, copper and crude are legacy non-commercial, not managed money. TFF leveraged funds and legacy non-commercials are different series and disagree in sign on JPY, GBP and AUD; never mix them.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — positions as of Tue 6 October | |||
| CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs | −6,759,832 | −182,897 on the week | 2y −1.26m (−92k) · 5y −2.13m (−142k) · 10y −2.14m (−103k) · ultra-10 −319k (+9k) · bond −190k (+62k) · ultra-bond −726k (+83k). Prior total ties to the carried 6,576,935. Largest total in this ledger. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove. Asset managers added gross longs in 2s, 5s and 10s |
| E-mini S&P 500 · Nasdaq mini | LF −415,087 · AM +906,615 | LF −42,598 · AM +2,612 | Nasdaq mini LF −19,212 (+5,511), AM +73,798 |
| FX — legacy non-commercial | EUR −99,332 · AUD −98,588 · GBP −97,611 · JPY +62,325 | EUR −36,076 · AUD −35,349 · NZD −12,031 · MXN −41,701 | A sharp build in dollar length against EUR, AUD and MXN in the legacy cut. DXY (ICE, legacy) +12,011 |
| FX — TFF leveraged funds | EUR −44,261 · AUD +54,133 · JPY −25,043 · CAD −79,625 | AUD −6,459 · JPY −10,882 | Leveraged funds remain net long AUD while the legacy cut is net short: the two series disagree in sign |
| Gold · copper · WTI · CME bitcoin — legacy NC | +210,335 · +69,434 · +99,060 · +2,540 | −8,297 · −15,977 · −10,403 · +75 | Speculators cut commodity length into an oil spike and a copper rally |
| Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA Flow Show (8 Oct, week to ≈7 Oct) | Cash +$166.4bn | largest since April 2020 | UST +$16.2bn (largest since April 2025); financials −$3.0bn. Bull & Bear 8.1 (from 8.8), still "sell". Secondary summary (Finvaulta); equity, bond and gold totals not obtained |
| ICI money funds (w/e 7 Oct) | $7,963.55bn | +$72.27bn | Verified. Institutional +$58.27bn, retail +$14.01bn; government funds +$61.15bn |
| US spot crypto ETFs (Farside, 5–9 Oct) | BTC −$678.9m · ETH −$542.2m | derived week totals | ETH ten straight outflow days. 9 Oct BTC +$21.1m (IBIT +$22.4m). CoinShares weekly due this evening |
| Sentiment and volatility | |||
| AAII (w/e 7 Oct) | Bulls 40.3 · Bears 39.0 | spread +1.3, from −11.9 | Verified. 22-week average spread −5.5 |
| BofA FMS | October survey not yet out | expected Tue 13 Oct (unconfirmed) | September: cash 3.9%, top tail risk disorderly yields, most crowded long semis (53%) |
| VIX term structure (9 Oct) | VIX 14.84 · VIX3M 17.77 | ratio 0.835 | Contango, day 129 (replica). VX Oct 17.12, Nov 17.85 |
| CBOE SKEW (9 Oct) · put/call (8 Oct) | 154.3 · 0.89 | +1.7σ vs 1-yr mean · 9-day 0.85 | Replica labels SKEW "extreme", from 141.8 on 7 Oct. Downside protection is no longer cheap; No. 025's "27th percentile" read was correct for 7 Oct and is now stale |
| Fear & Greed replica (9 Oct) | 42, Fear | 44 a week ago, 37 a month ago | Stock strength 14 (65 highs vs 187 lows); junk-bond demand 45; safe-haven demand 83 |
| Breadth, technicals and valuation | |||
| % of S&P members above 200-day (9 Oct) | 50.0% | 47.0% on 7 Oct; long-run mean 65.1% | Single source |
| S&P moving averages (9 Oct) | 20d 7,787.72 · 50d 7,760.02 · 100d 7,737.08 · 200d 7,695.47 | RSI 60.1 | Index above all four. NDX below its 20d (30,917.90) and 50d (30,898.45); RSI 48.2. Single source (Investing.com) |
| FactSet (9 Oct) | Fwd P/E 19.1× · Q3 EPS +29.6% | 10-yr avg 19.1×; 5-yr 19.8× | Verified. 19 reported, 84% beat. Energy +121%, IT +65%; financials +3.0%. Bottom-up target 9,290.58 |
| Strategist targets | GS 8,000 · MS 8,000 · Citi 8,100 · JPM 7,800 · BofA 7,100 | Reuters table, 29 Jun (stale) | No dated October revisions found; the S&P is above JPM's and BofA's |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 12 October — US Columbus Day (bonds closed, stocks open) · Japan, Canada closed · IMF/World Bank meetings open, Bangkok (12–18 Oct) | ||||||
| Mon | 09:00 | Sun 18:00 | CME Globex reopens: first price on the weekend's Gulf news · CNY fix 12:15 | H | ||
| Mon | 20:30 · 23:50 | 05:30 · 08:50 | BoE Breeden, Mann · CoinShares weekly flows (≈20:00) | L | ||
| Tuesday 13 October — RBA minutes · US banks · IMF WEO | ||||||
| Tue | 03:10 | Mon 12:10 | Fed's Hammack | L | ||
| Tue | 10:50 | Mon 19:50 | JP PPI (Sep) y/y | 7.6% | 7.6% | M |
| Tue | 11:30 | Mon 20:30 | RBA minutes (September meeting) · NAB business survey (Sep) | NAB −9 (TE model) | −8 | H |
| Tue | 13:00 | Mon 22:00 | IMF World Economic Outlook briefing · GFSR (time n/a) · OPEC MOMR (time n/a) | M | ||
| Tue | 17:00 · 18:45 | 02:00 · 03:45 | DE final CPI (Sep) · Fed's Waller on AI (New Delhi) | 3.3% y/y | M | |
| Tue | 21:00 | 06:00 | US NFIB small business (Sep) | 98.0 | 98.7 | L |
| Tue | ≈21:45 | ≈06:45 | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, J&J, UnitedHealth Q3 (pre-market) | JPM EPS $5.90 | H | |
| Wed | 05:00 | Tue 14:00 | US federal budget statement (Sep) | L | ||
| 13–15 | — | — | CN new loans · M2 · TSF (Sep) | loans CNY300bn (FF) vs 975bn (TE) · M2 7.4% | 60bn · 7.5% | M |
| Wednesday 14 October — China CPI and trade · ASML · US CPI | ||||||
| Wed | 11:00 | Tue 20:00 | AU Westpac leading index | 0.0% | L | |
| Wed | 12:30 · ≈14:00 | Tue 21:30 | CN CPI · PPI (Sep) · CN trade (Sep, time tentative) | 0.9–1.1% · 4.4% · $114.5bn | 0.8% · 3.8% · $119.1bn | H |
| Wed | day | — | ASML Q3 (time unconfirmed) · IEA OMR · IEA board 14–15 Oct · UK 2030 gilt auction · Lagarde, Bailey speak | H | ||
| Wed | 20:40 | 05:40 | Fed's Bowman (IIF, Bangkok); again 13:55 Thu AEDT | L | ||
| Wed | 23:30 | 08:30 | US CPI (Sep) headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · y/y · Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock Q3 | +0.6% · 3.6–3.7% · +0.2% · 2.5% | +0.4% · 3.4% · +0.3% · 2.4% | H |
| Thursday 15 October — Beige Book · Australian jobs · UK GDP · TSMC · US PPI and retail sales | ||||||
| Thu | 05:00 | Wed 14:00 | US Beige Book | M | ||
| Thu | 10:50 | Wed 19:50 | JP core machinery orders | +2.5% | −3.7% | L |
| Thu | 11:30 | Wed 20:30 | AU labour force (Sep) · unemployment · participation · RBA Annual Report (after 15:00) | +20k · 4.6% · 67.0% | +39.5k · 4.6% · 67.1% | H |
| Thu | 17:00 | 02:00 | UK GDP (Aug) · IP · trade · TSMC Q3 (time unconfirmed) | −0.1% m/m | +0.4% | H |
| Thu | 20:00 | 05:00 | EZ industrial production (Aug) | +0.1% | −0.1% | L |
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US PPI (Sep) · retail sales (Sep) · claims · Empire · Philly Fed · Schwab Q3 | PPI +0.5% · retail +0.3% · 195k · 3.2 · 26.5 | +0.4% · +1.2% · 197k · 7.6 · 37.8 | H |
| 15–16 | — | — | European Council, Brussels · EIA weekly petroleum (Thu 12:00 ET, holiday-delayed) | M | ||
| Friday 16 – Sunday 18 October | ||||||
| Fri | 08:30 | Thu 17:30 | NZ BusinessNZ PMI · card spending | 53.1 | L | |
| Fri | 14:30 | Thu 23:30 | Fed Chairman Warsh with IMF MD Georgieva, Bangkok (Fed calendar) | H | ||
| Fri | 20:00 | 05:00 | EZ final HICP (Sep) | 3.8% · core 2.5% | M | |
| Fri | 23:30 · 00:15 Sat | 08:30 · 09:15 | US import prices · industrial production · capacity utilisation | +0.6% · +0.4% · 76.5% | +0.7% · 0.0% · 76.3% | L |
| Sat | all day | — | Fed blackout begins · CFTC COT (13 Oct positions) 06:30 · IMFC briefing · US TIC 07:00 | M | ||
| Sun | 11:00 | Sat 20:00 | RBA Assistant Governor Kent (media interview; per RBA diary 18 Oct) | M | ||
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 19–23 Oct | 13:00 Mon | — | CN Q3 GDP Mon 19 (prior 4.3%) · Kent Mon 19 · PBoC LPR Tue 20 · UK labour · DE ZEW Tue 20 · French revenue vote Tue 20 · Netflix Tue 20 · Hauser Wed 21 · NZ Q3 CPI Thu 22 08:45 · BoK Thu 22 · Moody's France Fri 23 · UMich final Fri 23 | H | ||
| 25–30 Oct | — | — | Brazil runoff and Europe DST end Sun 25 · China plenum 26–29 · Israel election Tue 27 · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 | H | ||
| Nov–Jan | 14:30 Tue 3 | — | US DST ends and OPEC+ Sun 1 Nov · RBA Tue 3 Nov · US midterms Tue 3 Nov · Riksbank Wed 4 · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · US payrolls Sat 7 Nov 00:30 · French budget vote 17 Nov · S&P France 27 Nov · Spain 29 Nov · US funding 11 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan | H | ||
⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column does not render. "TE model" marks Trading Economics' own forecast, not a survey. US CPI consensus: 3.6% y/y per the Reuters poll (via Kitco) and nowflation's Street aggregate; 3.7% per Mitrade, TradingKey and Admiral. Fed calendar times carry no time zone and are read as ET. The UK labour report and German ZEW are Tue 20 Oct, not this week. From 26 October Europe moves to CET; from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A hot core CPI revives October | US CPI Wed 14 Oct 23:30 AEDT; PPI and retail Thu; Warsh Fri 14:30 | Oct hike 18.4% (futures, settled); ≈16% (prediction markets, aggregator) | A 0.3% core with Brent above $100 pulls the December hike forward; 2-year and dollar up; a bear flattener against V030 | 2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry |
| 2 | Gulf escalation spreads beyond Hormuz | IRGC beyond-Hormuz threat; Ocean Molica; Iran rejects US reply; Houthi strikes on Riyadh | WTI ≥$100 in Oct ≈38% (Polymarket, aggregator; ladder inconsistent) | Brent tested $105.92 last week. Freight and products move first, inflation expectations follow | V024's residual call; product-crack optionality |
| 3 | Treasury short squeeze | LF net short 6.76m contracts; soft core CPI; bond holiday Monday | — | A front-end-led rally with long-end lagging flattens 5s30s; a broad rally steepens it | V030's 50bp stop; receive 5-year as a tactical hedge |
| 4 | Credit stress spreads from CCC to HY and to banks | CCC 1,252bp (high); HY +12bp in two sessions; bank results 13–14 Oct | — | Provisions above consensus would mark the stress moving to lenders; BofA's B&B already at "sell" | V017 (now High); CDX HY protection |
| 5 | AI-hardware de-rating returns | ASML Wed; TSMC Thu; NDX below its 20d and 50d | FMS: long semis most crowded (53%, Sep) | The book has no equity hedge; IT carries much of FactSet's 29.6% Q3 growth | NDX or SOX put spreads after TSMC; SKEW at 154 makes them dear now |
| 6 | The RBA hikes into a demand shock | Minutes Tue; jobs Thu; Q3 CPI 28 Oct | RBA Nov ≈26–30% (ASX tracker, TE) | Clearance 45.4%, sentiment 80.4; a hawkish minutes read lifts 3-year yields and hits rate-sensitive equity | V006; AU 3-year payers |
| 7 | French budget and ratings | Revenue vote Tue 20 Oct; Moody's Fri 23 Oct; full vote 17 Nov | — | OAT–Bund 132.5bp; a censure threat or downgrade widens it, RN support or an ECB signal narrows it | V025 |
| 8 | Dollar squeeze | Legacy specs added 36k EUR and 35k AUD shorts; USD/JPY 158.33 | — | A hot CPI with crowded dollar length extends it; USD/JPY toward 160 brings MoF risk | Short-dated USD/JPY puts as intervention optionality |
| 9 | China data disappoint | CPI/PPI and trade Wed; credit 13–15; Q3 GDP Mon 19 | — | Iron ore −8.1% on the month; hits ASX materials and AUD | AUD/CNH; materials underweight inside V006 |
| 10 | US midterms | Tue 3 Nov | Dem House ≈90%; Senate ≈60–62% (Kalshi/Polymarket via aggregator, 11 Oct) | BofA flags a Democratic sweep as a >10% downside catalyst (secondary) | Q4 collars |
| 11 | Crypto de-risking continues | BTC ETFs −$679m, ETH −$542m on the week | — | ETH ten straight outflow days; BTC ≈2–3% lower on the week | No crypto view open |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | 7,788 (20d) · 7,760 (50d) · 7,737 (100d) · 7,695 (200d) | 7,818.93 (record close) · 7,850 | MAs from Investing.com (9 Oct, single source) |
| Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000 | ≈30,883 · 2,806.98 | 30,685 (100d) · 2,794 (8 Oct) | 30,898 (50d) · 30,918 (20d) · 2,832.89 (2 Oct) | NDX is below its 20d and 50d; the S&P is above all four |
| UST 5s30s · 2s10s | 58bp par (9 Oct) · 44bp | 50 (V030 closes) · 57 (entry) | 64 (7 Oct) · 65 (V030 upgrades, with 30y par > 5.70%) | No par row Mon 12 Oct |
| UST 30y · 10y · 2y (par) | 5.60 · 5.24 · 4.80% | 5.56 · 5.20 · 4.75 | 5.70 (V030 leg) · 5.31 (5 Oct) · 4.84 | Highest par 10y close this cycle 5.31% (5 Oct) |
| OAT–Bund | 132.5bp (9 Oct, dedicated) | 80 (V025 closes) · 127.4 (6 Oct) | 139.8 (8 Oct) · 146.9 (one-year high) | Same-page legs OAT 4.80 / Bund 3.47 |
| Gilt 10y · JGB 30y | 5.42 · 4.06% | 5.35 · 4.00 | 5.51 (19-yr high) · 4.21 | Vendor |
| ACGB 10y · 30y | 5.35–5.36% · 5.82% | 5.30 · 5.75 | 5.41 · 5.89 (record) | TE and ASX futures agree |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 102.21 · 1.1196 · 158.33 | 101.90 · 1.1160 · 157.76 | 102.54 (5 Oct high) · 1.1262 · 158.43 · 160 | USD/JPY 52-week high 164.00 (Investing) |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.6984 (NY) · 1.2416 (RBA) | 0.6933 · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.6990 · 0.7000 · 1.2451 · 1.2500 | AUD weekly range 0.69332–0.69898 (ShareTrader) |
| Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov) | $104.72 · $91.85 | $102.33 (Fri low) · $100.20 · $86.53–89.53 (V024) | $105.09 · $105.92 (8 Oct high) | First trade 09:00 AEDT |
| Gold · Copper (LME cash) | $4,193.60 · $14,689 | $4,133 · $14,355 (2 Oct) | $4,250 · $15,000 | Round numbers and prior closes, not proprietary |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,716.6 | 8,661 (8 Oct) · 8,600 | 8,749 (SPI settle) · 8,900 (V006 closes) · 9,005.9 | Closed on its high Friday |
| Nikkei · Hang Seng · KOSPI | 69,031 · 24,211 · 6,626 | 68,309 (2 Oct) · 23,786 · 6,500 | 70,036 · 24,500 · 6,804 | Prior closes and round numbers |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 82 / 315 / 1,252bp (8 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 305 (V017 back to Med on two prints) | HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,252 (new high) | FRED; 9 Oct not posted |
| Bitcoin | ≈$83,800 | $80,507 (8 Oct low) · $80,000 | $85,659 · $86,490 (4 Oct) | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:05 AEDT Monday. On a Monday every US source has posted, so the Tuesday–Friday timing protocol does not bind: the AP tabulation for Friday (KRMG and La Nación syndications), the official par curve through 9 October, the settled Fed Rate Monitor read and the CFTC report for 6 October were all available. Spot checks by direct fetch: the Investing.com Brent history (confirming the 8 and 9 October rows), CoinDesk bitcoin, and the Federal Reserve's October calendar (confirming Chairman Kevin Warsh's Thursday appearance and the Columbus Day release shift). No Monday indicative opens exist at a 06:00 start; none are quoted. Every figure was retrieved on 11–12 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 025
(1) MATERIAL: the FTSE MIB's 8 October close was ≈49,298 (implied by Friday's 49,746 and +0.91%; soldionline and TE), not the 49,831.80 we published.
(2) The SMI's 8 October close was ≈13,637 (implied by TE's Friday +1.10%), not 13,658.9 (single source; small).
(3) Resolved: the CAC's 8 October close was ≈7,730 (implied by MarketScreener's Friday close), not ≈7,735; the IBEX's was ≈18,928.9, the lower of the two readings we withheld.
(4) Brent December settled $104.28 on 8 October (+4.07%), just above the ≈$103.5–104.0 vendor range we published. WTI November settled $91.49.
(5) Official par for 8 October: 2y 4.75, 5y 4.99, 10y 5.22, 30y 5.60 (5s30s 61bp). FRED OAS for 8 October: IG 82, HY 315, CCC 1,252. OAT–Bund dedicated series 139.8bp for 8 October.
(6) RBNZ date resolved: Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT (rbnz.govt.nz). The Tue 27 Oct listing we flagged was wrong.
(7) TAIEX 8 October: TE now shows 49,313.44 (−0.99%) against the 49,433.57 (−0.75%) we published; unresolved, both TE.
(8) Gulf shut-ins: the 25% we cited was the 7 October figure; by 9 October shut-ins were about 63% (BSEE update not found; figures attributed to the "Marine Minerals Administration").
(9) SKEW: No. 025's "27th percentile, protection cheap" was right for 7 October (141.8) but is stale; the replica printed 154.3 on 9 October.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
Brent 9 October: Investing history row 104.72 vs TE 104.43 and Investing's own header 104.42 (probably post-settle trades) and Alliance 104.86 (London close); the dated row is used and labelled single source. US closes: AP preferred to TheStreet (Russell 2,806.98 vs 2,808.57; TheStreet's weekly S&P +0.95% vs AP +1.2%). DXY: TE 102.21 vs Mitrade 101.90; TE used. US CPI consensus: 3.6% (Reuters poll via Kitco; nowflation Street) vs 3.7% (Mitrade, TradingKey, Admiral); range shown. RBA November: centralbank.watch 27.9% (schedule) and 26.0% (summary) vs TE ≈30%; range shown. Bund 10y: TE's page shows 3.486, 3.47 and 3.45; range shown. ASX sectors Friday: ShareTrader IT +2.2% vs a TE line listing tech among losers; ShareTrader and Market Index agree, TE rejected. Shanghai: +0.05% vs +0.10% (two TE items). Riyadh airport casualties: 3 to 12; range shown. China new-loan consensus: CNY300bn vs 975bn; both shown. PBoC Friday estimate 6.7973: about 720 pips from Thursday's; rejected as a typo.
Single-source and unverified items
The Brent 9 October settle (Investing row) · the Nasdaq-100 close (Investing.com) · the Ocean Molica strike (JPost) · the tanker mine claim (Iranian state media) · the Aramco Jeddah smoke and 71.5% shut-in headlines (Newsquawk) · Iran's SNSC statement and the Riyadh strikes (Fox News live, Times of Israel) · SMI, IBEX, Euro Stoxx 50 and Shanghai closes (TE) · RBA pricing (tracker and TE, soft inputs) · all thetrading.tools gauges (SKEW, put/call, VIX curve, Fear & Greed) · breadth (historyofmarket) · S&P and NDX moving averages (Investing.com) · BofA Flow Show and BofA economics (Finvaulta summaries) · prediction-market odds (DeFi Rate aggregator) · TE's gold weekly change · Takaichi's consumption-tax pledge (TE) · the NDRC policy-tools headline (Bloomberg headline only).
Not obtained
Monday indicative opens (do not exist at filing) · the SPI overnight session (booked to 12 October, not published) · Cotality's preliminary clearance rate for 10 October · FRED OAS for 9 October · the PBoC fix for 9 October · HS Tech · VIX3M on FRED for 9 October · a BSEE post-landfall shut-in update · any confirmed weekend US–Iran talks · LSEG Lipper flows · BofA Flow Show equity, bond and gold totals · the October FMS date · dated October strategist targets · CFTC bitcoin TFF · ASML and TSMC release times · the MAS October statement date · ECB, Riksbank, Norges, SNB pricing refreshes · JKM detail beyond the TE board.
Tuesday's first verification targets
(1) ICE Brent December settle for 12 October and a second source for 9 October (V024). (2) FRED OAS for 9 and 12 October: does HY hold above 305bp (V017's new mirror)? (3) OAT–Bund dedicated series for 12 October. (4) Cotality preliminary clearance for 10 October. (5) RBA minutes text at 11:30. (6) The Monday ASX close and the RBA 4pm table (V006, V023). (7) Confirmation of the Ocean Molica strike from CENTCOM. (8) ASML and TSMC release times. Note: no official par row posts for 12 October (Columbus Day); V030's next mark is the 13 October row.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- AP via KRMG — Friday tabulation · AP via La Nación · Yahoo — markets live · TheStreet · SPY · DIA · QQQ · IWM · Cboe — VIX · FRED VIXCLS
- US Treasury — par yield curve, October 2026 · University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers · Cleveland Fed — nowcast · nowflation — CPI preview · Mitrade — CPI preview · Kiplinger — calendar · TradingKey — week preview
- Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Federal Reserve — October calendar · DeFi Rate — Fed odds · DeFi Rate — midterms · DeFi Rate — oil · Reuters via Kitco — week ahead · Euronews — OpenAI revenue
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · NYMEX · ICE (DXY) · ICI MMF · BofA Flow Show via Finvaulta · BofA economics via Finvaulta
- AAII · Fear & Greed replica · put/call · VIX term structure · SKEW · breadth · S&P technicals · NDX technicals · FactSet — 9 October · Reuters targets table (June)
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · centralbank.watch — RBA · BoE · BoJ — schedule · RBNZ · The New Daily — bank RBA calls · MPA — BoC · Reuters ECB poll via TMGM · investingLive — Lagarde · Pound Sterling Live — Bailey · FXStreet — MAS
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — Bund · Gilt · JGB · ACGB · ASX — futures EOD, 9 Oct
- TE — DXY and crosses · Investing.com — USD/JPY · AUD/USD · ShareTrader — the week in currencies · investingLive — PBoC
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- Investing.com — ASX history · ShareTrader — ASX close · SmallCaps — weekly wrap · Market Index — live blog, 9 Oct · TE — ASX · TE — Australia calendar · Cotality — final clearance, 4 Oct · TE — Westpac sentiment
- Nikkei Indexes — archive · TOPIX · TE — China · Hong Kong · India · Singapore · NZX · TE — China calendar · TSMC — September revenue · TE — iron ore · coal
Europe and geopolitics
- Investing.com — Stoxx 600 · MarketScreener — DAX · CAC 40 · Alliance News via AJ Bell — FTSE · soldionline — FTSE MIB · TE — stocks · Newsquawk · FXStreet — French budget · ForexFactory · IMF — Annual Meetings schedule
- Euronews — IRGC tanker strike · JPost — Ocean Molica · Fox News live — 11 Oct · Times of Israel — 10 Oct · Al Jazeera — Trump on Iran · Windward · AAP — Kpler transits · tankermap · RFE/RL — Russian diesel · Al Jazeera — diesel · Manila Times — US–China truce
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Investing.com — Brent history · WTI history · TE — Brent · Buckhead Energy · The Nation — 8 Oct settles · OE Digital — shut-ins · NHC · OPEC — 4 Oct · IEA — OMR · EIA — schedule
- Kitco — gold · TE — commodities · Westmetall — copper
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · ConvexTrade — HY
- CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH