The bottom line
- Oil re-accelerated on Iranian tanker attacks and a Gulf storm, and Brent is back near $104. December Brent settled $100.20 on Wednesday (corroborated by two independent derivations), then traded as high as about $105.9 on Thursday and was about $103.5–104.0 late in New York (vendor quotes; Thursday's settle was not obtained). WTI was about $91. The drivers were a weekly Hormuz attack count at its highest of the war (UKMTO via Reuters), a tanker hit north of Qatar with casualties, reports that the Pentagon told CENTCOM to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat, and Tropical Storm Isaias shutting in about 25% of US Gulf oil output. Brent came off its high after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterms. Read: this is the inflation channel the minutes worry about, arriving a week before US CPI.
- AI stocks broke while the rest of the market held, and the S&P fell back below 7,800. AP has the S&P at 7,765.36 (−0.47%), the Nasdaq Composite −1.25% and the Nasdaq-100 −1.39%, against the Dow +0.10% and the Russell 2000 +0.03%; AP notes most S&P stocks rose. The selling was in AI hardware: Coherent −9.6%, Astera Labs −9.2%, CoreWeave −7.8%, Arm −6.5%, Micron −4.8%, Broadcom −4.4%, Nvidia −2.9% (investingLive), after an FT report that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about $20bn below earlier estimates (secondary). Asia had already fallen hard: KOSPI −2.62%, Nikkei −1.42%, Hang Seng −1.43%, Singapore −3.49%. AP's Wednesday tabulation confirms 7,801.77, so V028's closure stands. On the week the S&P is still up 0.55%.
- The 30-year auction cleared cleanly and yields fell, but the official curve now shows 5s30s at 64bp. The $22bn 30-year sold at 5.618% against 5.617% when-issued, a 0.1bp tail, with 2.54× cover and dealers taking only 6.79% (verified on investingLive). After a morning spike (10-year about 5.33–5.35%), vendor closes put the 10-year at about 5.23% (−5bp) and the 30-year about 5.58% (−6bp). The official par row for Wednesday has 5y 5.03% and 30y 5.67%: 5s30s 64bp, V030's best mark, one basis point short of the 65bp upgrade level and with the 30-year below the 5.70% leg. Jobless claims were 197k. Waller said more hikes are likely needed but the pace can be flexible. October hike odds rose to 20.7% intraday with oil and fell back to 16.1% at 16:25 ET after the auction; December is about 81% for at least one hike.
- CCC spreads set a new series high while IG tightened. FRED has 7 October at CCC 1,229bp (+15), above the 1 October high of 1,215, with HY 309bp (+6) and IG 82bp (−1). CCC has risen in seven of eight sessions from 1,112 on 24 September; the same-day CCC/IG ratio is about 15.0×. This is the split V017 is built for: stress at the bottom of the ratings scale while high grade rallies. The view is 179bp from its exit and stays at Med; an upgrade needs HY to follow CCC, which it did on Wednesday by 6bp.
- The ASX fell 0.77% and is now negative for 2026, on the day the mortgage pass-through lands. The ASX 200 closed 8,660.9 (−66.8) on its low, with materials −2.0% and financials −1.0% (CBA −1.5%, near its lowest since April 2025). Auction clearance fell to 45.4%, the lowest since July (Cotality preliminary). November RBA pricing is about 24–26% (ASX-based tracker, 8 Oct), up from 22%. The ACGB 10-year was about 5.39–5.41% and the 30-year about 5.88%. The RBA 4pm table had AUD/USD 0.6956 and AUD/NZD 1.2413. V006 is now 3.83% in favour; V023 is 163 pips above its exit.
- The ECB accounts leaned against a pre-set hiking path, and the OAT spread widened again on its own series. The September account says the hike should not be presented as a step in a predetermined cycle or as necessarily the last, and that an orderly long-end repricing "could have implications for appropriate policy rates" (Econostream). October ECB pricing is about 8%. The dedicated OAT–Bund series printed 134.4bp for 7 October, up 7bp from 6 October, putting V025 40bp in the money. Elsewhere: the gilt 10-year touched 5.51% intraday, its highest since July 2007, before closing about 5.43%; gold rose to $4,133.60 (Kitco, 16:47 ET); bitcoin fell to about $81,500 after a $485m spot-ETF outflow on Wednesday, the largest in the rows Farside shows.
Overnight recap and the week
United States: AI hardware sold, oil bid, bonds bought
AP's tabulation: the S&P 500 fell 36.41 points (−0.47%) to 7,765.36, the Dow rose 51.77 (+0.10%) to 51,231.64, the Nasdaq Composite fell 345.35 (−1.25%) to 27,193.34 and the Russell 2000 rose 0.92 to 2,794.13. investingLive has the Nasdaq-100 at 30,725.81 (−1.39%), and settled QQQ fell 1.34%; settled SPY fell 0.43%, consistent with the cash index. AP's Wednesday tabulation is also now posted: S&P 7,801.77 (confirming the close that stopped V028), Dow 51,179.87, Nasdaq 27,538.69 and Russell 2,793.20 (we carried 2,793.36). The VIX closed 15.42 (+0.34; single source).
The damage was concentrated in AI hardware and optical names: Coherent −9.6%, Astera Labs −9.2%, CoreWeave −7.8%, Nebius −7.4%, Arm −6.5%, Lumentum −5.6%, Intel −5.3%, SanDisk −4.9%, Micron −4.8%, Broadcom −4.4%, Nvidia −2.9%, Amazon −2.3%, Microsoft −1.4%; Apple rose 1.1%. The trigger cited in coverage was an FT report that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about $20bn below earlier estimates (via Yahoo; we could not read the FT). We read the day as a rotation within the index rather than a de-risking, because AP says most S&P members rose and the Dow and Russell finished up; that is an inference from one session. TSMC's September-quarter revenue rose 51% and its shares fell 1.3%. PepsiCo rose 1.9% on a beat (its guidance-cut size conflicts between sources). Haemonetics rose 17% on a CSL Plasma deal and Chipotle 7.4% on reports Starbucks explored a bid (intraday moves).
Rates. Yields rose about 5bp in the morning with oil (10-year 5.333% at 12:17 UTC; 5.35% at 09:41 ET), then reversed. The $22bn 30-year reopening sold at 5.618% against 5.617% when-issued, with 2.54× cover (average 2.41×), indirects 72.3% and dealers 6.79% (average 10.3%). Late vendor levels: 2-year 4.751% (−1.3bp), 5-year 4.987%, 10-year 5.227% (−5.0bp), 30-year 5.584% (−5.9bp). Data: initial claims 197k (consensus 200k), continuing 1.71m. Fed: Waller said additional hikes "will likely be needed" but the pace "can remain flexible" and need not come at consecutive meetings. The government is funded to 11 December under a continuing resolution, and the week's releases came on schedule.
Europe: oil and banks, then a softer ECB read
European equities fell with oil above $105 intraday. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.75% to 625.51, the Euro Stoxx 50 0.87% to 6,126.73, the DAX 1.2% to 24,807 (below 25,000 for the first time in about two months), the CAC about 0.44% to about 7,735, the FTSE 100 0.16% to 10,441.60, the FTSE MIB 0.28% and the SMI 1.08%. Banks hit a three-month low for a second day (Reuters); argenx fell 18% on a trial halt, while TotalEnergies rose about 2.8% and Tesco about 5% on results. The IBEX close conflicts between two vendor readings and is withheld. The ECB accounts and a run of speakers (Lane, Stournaras, Moulin, Lagarde) said the energy shock has not broadened into wages, which reduced near-term hike bets; a Reuters poll of 73 economists expects a hold on 29 October. BoE Governor Bailey said fiscal commitments are "needed more than ever" and market moves are "some way from normal" but not disorderly; Greene warned against relying on bond yields to do the Bank's work. The gilt 10-year touched 5.51% intraday, its highest since July 2007, and closed about 5.43%.
Asia: a broad risk-off day as China reopened
Asia sold off on the minutes, US yields and oil. The Nikkei fell 1.42% to 69,042.11 (exchange figure) and TOPIX about 1.5% (single source), led by SoftBank Group −4.3% and MUFG −3.3%. The KOSPI fell 2.62% to 6,625.93 with foreigners selling a net ₩2.02tn, even as Samsung's preliminary Q3 operating profit came in at a record ₩107.4tn (whether that beat consensus is disputed between sources). Mainland China reopened after Golden Week and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.79% to 3,811.90 (CSI 300 −1.09%; Shenzhen −2.07%); energy rose and AI hardware fell. The Hang Seng lost 1.43% to 23,785.79, with HS Tech −2.89% to its lowest since October 2024 and HSBC about −5%. The PBoC's first fix after the holiday was 6.7367, 113 pips weaker than the 6.7254 estimate, a lean against yuan strength. India's Sensex fell 1.44% and the Nifty 1.64%; Singapore's STI fell 3.49% on its banks (single source).
The Gulf
The tanker Acers was hit by projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, with casualties: the first attack in that area in more than six months (the date is given as Wednesday by one source and Thursday 10:07 UTC by another). A second tanker caught fire off Fujairah; the cause is unclear. UKMTO has logged at least one attack a day since 2 October. Transit counts remain a small fraction of pre-war levels on every provider (IMF PortWatch 4 vessels on 4 October; Windward 3 inbound and 8 outbound on 6 October). There is still no Saudi or Aramco statement on the Rabigh claim. TotalEnergies' CEO said the SATORP refinery at Jubail has been repaired. The IEA agreed on 7 October to accelerate stock releases already pledged, with diesel prioritised; details of the G7 release are expected at its 14–15 October board (two sources, not IEA-confirmed).
The week in one paragraph
From Friday 2 October to Thursday 8 October the S&P rose 0.55% after setting a record close of 7,818.93 on Tuesday, the Dow rose 0.11%, the Nasdaq was flat and the Russell 2000 fell 1.37%. On the official curve the 2-year fell 6bp and the 30-year rose 4bp to Wednesday, so 5s30s steepened from 57bp to 64bp. The OAT–Bund spread compressed from 146.9bp to 127.4bp on RN's alternative budget and then re-widened to 134.4bp. CCC spreads widened 27bp to a new high while IG tightened 3bp. The ASX 200 fell 0.24% to Thursday, and AUD/NZD slipped 38 pips on the RBA table from Tuesday's 1.2451. India hiked. The FOMC minutes put a December hike in most officials' baseline. One house view closed (V028, wrong) and none opened.
This morning's setup
No SPI quote or indicative open was obtained before filing; Thursday morning's Market Index wrap had futures −53 points, which is not a guide to today. The ASX opens with the big-four variable mortgage rate increase in effect. Korea and Taiwan are closed today. Tonight: Canada's labour force (23:30 AEDT) and US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations (01:00 Saturday). The CFTC's report on 6 October positions lands at 06:30 Saturday. On Monday the US bond market is shut for Columbus Day and Japan and Canada are on holiday.
Market dashboard
Week to Thursday 8 October: change against Friday 2 October
| Equities | Close | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | −0.47% | +0.55% | ⭐ Verified (AP tabulation). SPY −0.43% at the 16:00 stamp. AP's Wednesday close 7,801.77 confirms V028's stop |
| Nasdaq Composite · Nasdaq-100 | 27,193.34 · 30,725.81 | −1.25% · −1.39% | +0.01% · — | Composite AP; NDX investingLive, corroborated by QQQ −1.34% |
| Dow Jones | 51,231.64 | +0.10% | +0.11% | AP. investingLive 51,237.13 |
| Russell 2000 · VIX | 2,794.13 · 15.42 | +0.03% · +2.3% | −1.37% · — | Russell AP (Wed corrected to 2,793.20). VIX single source (Yahoo) |
| Stoxx 600 · Euro Stoxx 50 | 625.51 · 6,126.73 | −0.75% · −0.87% | — · ≈−1.79% | Both corroborated (MarketScreener, TE). ES50 week derived from 6,238.50; MarketScreener's own 1-week is −0.71% (conflict) |
| DAX · CAC 40 | 24,807 · ≈7,735 | −1.2% · −0.44% | — | DAX Xetra close (dpa-AFX); about a two-month low. CAC from TE only (variant 7,730) |
| FTSE 100 · FTSE MIB · SMI | 10,441.60 · 49,831.80 · 13,658.9 | −0.16% · −0.28% · −1.08% | — | FTSE verified; ties to 10,458.50. IBEX withheld: 18,928.9 vs 19,090 conflict |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 69,042.11 · ≈4,091 | −1.42% · ≈−1.51% | — | Nikkei from the exchange; TOPIX single source. Nikkei VI 29.59 |
| Shanghai · CSI 300 | 3,811.90 · 4,310.28 | −0.79% · −1.09% | vs 30 Sep | First session after Golden Week; TE only. Shenzhen −2.07% |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 23,785.79 · — | −1.43% · −2.89% | — | Verified (Investing.com, BigGo). HS Tech lowest since Oct 2024 |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 6,625.93 · 49,433.57 | −2.62% · −0.75% | — | KOSPI ties to 6,803.90. TAIEX TE. Both shut today |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 · STI | 71,593.24 · 22,231.80 · 5,412.96 | −1.44% · −1.64% · −3.49% | — | India ties to carried priors (32-month low). STI single source; lowest since 9 July |
| S&P/ASX 200 · NZX 50 | 8,660.9 · 13,691.85 | −0.77% · +0.06% | −0.24% · — | ⭐ ASX verified (Market Index body dateline, ABC). Negative for 2026. SPI not obtained |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST par, 7 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.77 · 5.03 · 5.28 · 5.67% | −2 · 0 · +1 · +3bp | −6 · −3 · 0 · +4bp | ⭐ Verified against the Treasury's page. 5s30s 64bp, 2s10s 51bp. Week is against the 2 Oct par row |
| UST vendor, 8 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | ≈4.75 · ≈4.99 · ≈5.23 · ≈5.58% | ≈−1 · −3 · −5 · −6bp | — | investingLive ~16:16 ET. 5s30s ≈60bp (derived). Morning high 10y ≈5.35% |
| 30-year auction ($22bn) | 5.618% | 0.1bp tail | — | Verified. Cover 2.54× (avg 2.41), indirect 72.3%, dealer 6.79% (avg 10.3%) |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.43% · 5.94% | −1 · −4bp | — | 10y touched 5.51% intraday, highest since Jul 2007 (TE) |
| Bund · OAT · BTP · Spain 10y | 3.46 · 4.89 · 4.60 · ≈4.15% | −2 · −1 · −4 · +1bp | — | Vendor (TE). Spain highest since Dec 2013 |
| OAT–Bund | 134.4bp (7 Oct, dedicated) · ≈142.7bp (8 Oct, TE legs) | +7.0 | −12.5 (vs 2 Oct) | ⭐ V025's mark. TE legs are a different benchmark and not spliced |
| JGB 2y · 10y · 30y | 1.94 · 3.09 · ≈4.18% | −1.5 · −3 · −3bp | — | 30y auction demand "firmer than 12-month average" (headlines); cover and tail not obtained |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y | 4.90–4.93 · 5.39–5.41 · 5.88% | ≈0 · ≈0 · −1bp | — | TE vs Market Index differ 2–3bp; range shown. AU–US 10y ≈+17bp (derived on vendor US) |
| Canada 10y · Swiss 10y | 3.93% · 0.57% | −2 · +4bp | — | Vendor |
| US IG · HY OAS (7 Oct) | 82 · 309bp | −1 · +6bp | −3 · −1bp | ⭐ Verified (FRED). 8 Oct not posted |
| US CCC OAS (7 Oct) | 1,229bp | +15bp | +27bp | ⭐ Verified. New series high (prior 1,215 on 1 Oct). CCC/IG ≈15.0× |
| FX | Level | 1d | Basis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.16 | −0.08% | TE late NY | A Yahoo print of 101.85 has an unclear date; not used. ICE high 102.54 on 5 Oct |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | 1.1206 · 1.3222 | +0.03% · +0.05% | TE late NY | TE's 7 Oct close was 1.1202, not the 1.1172 we published (see §13) |
| USD/JPY | 157.88 | −0.08% | TE | 158.10 at 08:54 AEDT (Yahoo). No new intervention language found |
| AUD/USD · NZD/USD | 0.6956 · 0.5601 | −0.20% · 0.00% | RBA 4pm · TE | ⭐ RBA verified; NY close 0.6954 (TE) |
| AUD/NZD | 1.2413 | −0.16% | RBA 4pm table | ⭐ Verified. NY legs 1.2416 (derived). 163 pips above V023's exit |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4229 · 0.8318 | −0.18% · −0.11% | TE | Canada jobs tonight |
| USD/CNY · fix | 6.7043 · 6.7367 | +0.05% | onshore · PBoC | Fix 113 pips weaker than estimate (6.7254). Today's fix 12:15 AEDT |
| USD/MXN · USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/BRL | 18.195 · 97.08 · 1,342.25 · 5.0143 | +1.24% · +0.05% · +0.19% · −0.16% | TE | MXN move unexplained; INR near record low |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | 1w | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | $100.20 (7 Oct settle) · ≈$103.5–104.0 (8 Oct) | ≈+3.3–3.8% | ≈+1.2–1.7% | 7 Oct settle corroborated (Investing history; implied by Reuters' change). 8 Oct settle NOT obtained; vendor late quotes. High ≈$105.9. Fri 2 Oct 102.25 (derived) |
| WTI NOVEMBER | $88.28 (7 Oct settle) · ≈$91.0–91.9 | ≈+3.1–4.2% | — | 7 Oct corroborated. Gulf shut-ins 25.1% of oil output (7 Oct) |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $3.22 · €78.69 | +0.4% · +0.8% | +8.4% · +6.4% | TE board (weekly basis unclear) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,133.60 | +0.55% | — | ⭐ Kitco mid, 16:47 ET; range $4,102.90–4,146.70 |
| Silver · Platinum | $59.11 · $1,647.50 | −1.15% · −0.14% | — | Silver Kitco 14:59 ET; platinum TE |
| Copper LME cash / 3M (7 Oct) | $14,510 / $14,422 | +$5 / −$12 | +1.08% (cash) | Westmetall. Stocks 239,875t, four straight falls. COMEX ≈$6.52–6.57/lb |
| Aluminium LME cash (7 Oct) · Iron ore 62% | $3,102.50 · ≈$91–92/t | −1.0% · ≈+1% | −0.23% · — | Iron ore: TE $91.13 (7 Oct); ABC $92.15 at 14:30 AEDT 8 Oct |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,300–81,500 | ≈−2.0 to −2.4% | — | CoinGecko / CMC ≈19:00 UTC; low $80,507. ≈$1.14bn of liquidations (CoinGlass via Bitcoin.com) |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,447 · $108 · $1.36 · $727 | ≈−4 to −7% | — | Total cap $2.75–2.82tn; BTC dominance 58–59.6% |
| Spot ETF flows (7 Oct) | BTC −$484.9m · ETH −$160.9m | verified | BTC −$455.9m wtd | Farside. IBIT −$207.7m. ETH out on 8 of 9 sessions. 8 Oct rows are placeholders |
Conventions: 1d is against Wednesday 7 October's close; 1w is against Friday 2 October. US equity figures are AP's. Thursday's Treasury levels are vendor; the 7 October row is official par. FX is TE late New York unless marked RBA 4pm. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value, a greyed level is unresolved, and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. The long end is priced off supply and term premium, and the official curve confirms it
The week's three coupon auctions told one story: buyers appear at these yields. The 10-year cleared 1.7bp through when-issued on Wednesday, and the 30-year cleared with a 0.1bp tail on Thursday and the lowest dealer takedown in its recent run (6.79% against a 10.3% average). Yields still printed new 24-year highs intraday on both days before falling back. On the official curve, the week to Wednesday was a steepener: 2-year −6bp, 30-year +4bp, 5s30s from 57bp to 64bp. Abroad, the gilt 10-year touched 5.51% (its highest since July 2007), Spain's 10-year is at its highest since 2013, and the ECB accounts acknowledged that long-end repricing could itself substitute for policy-rate hikes. Our reading is that the long end now clears at roughly current levels rather than gapping, but oil re-accelerating is the input that would push the clearing level higher; that is an inference.
2. AI hardware is being re-rated while the rest of the index holds (new)
Thursday's S&P fall (−0.47%) came almost entirely from AI hardware and optical names: Nasdaq-100 −1.39%, Coherent −9.6%, Arm −6.5%, Micron −4.8%, Broadcom −4.4%, Nvidia −2.9%, while the Dow and Russell rose and AP says most S&P members rose. The same trade hit Asia first: the KOSPI fell 2.62% on the day Samsung reported a record ₩107.4tn quarterly operating profit, and HS Tech fell to its lowest since October 2024. The reported catalyst was an FT story that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about $20bn below earlier estimates (secondary). The positioning context is that the FMS's most crowded trade is long semiconductors (53%, September), Goldman projects hyperscaler capex of about $800bn in 2026 and $1.2trn in 2027, and FactSet's Q3 growth estimate of 29.5% leans heavily on IT (+65%). We read Thursday as a test of the financing side of AI capex rather than of current earnings, because the record Samsung print did not support the stocks; that is a reading of one session.
3. Australia: the hike landed on confidence; now it lands on mortgages
The big-four variable rate increase takes effect today. The week's evidence on the demand side was weak: consumer sentiment fell 4.7% to 80.4 (Westpac-MI, 6 October), preliminary auction clearance fell to 45.4%, the lowest since July, on volumes 38% below a year ago, and the ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,660.9, negative for 2026. Against that, job ads rose 2.2% in September for a fifth straight gain, and November RBA pricing rose to about 24–26% from 17% at the start of the week as the long end sold off (the 30-year ACGB set a record 5.89% on Wednesday). Westpac and ANZ forecast a November hike; CBA, NAB and Bendigo do not. The market has moved toward the hawks while the household data have moved the other way.
4. Europe: the spread's good day lasted one session
The dedicated OAT–Bund series confirms the round trip: 146.9bp on 2 October, 143.4 on 5 October, 127.4 on 6 October, 134.4 on 7 October. The 6 October compression on RN's alternative budget has been partly reversed. The ECB accounts and Thursday's speakers (Lane, Stournaras, Moulin; Lagarde saying the ECB "has tools to counter unwarranted market dynamics", headline only) point to no October hike and no pre-commitment, which is neutral for the spread: no backstop is promised and none is ruled out. France's budget goes to a vote around 17 November; Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 October (Aa3, negative) and S&P on 27 November. Spain votes on 29 November.
5. Oil: the physical risk came back into the price
Brent settled $100.20 on Wednesday, its third session near $100, then jumped about 3.5% on Thursday. Three supply inputs arrived together: the highest weekly attack count of the war in and around Hormuz (UKMTO via Reuters) including the first strike north of Qatar in six months; reports that the Pentagon told CENTCOM to finish preparing for a possible resumption of major combat; and Tropical Storm Isaias shutting in 25.1% of US Gulf oil output and 16.4% of gas (7 October). Trump's statement that the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms took Brent back from $105.9 to about $103.5–104. On the demand side, products remain weak (EIA distillate and gasoline data on Wednesday). Hormuz flow estimates still differ widely by provider (the FT, via OGJ, has about 4m b/d on 6 October; Kpler and Vortexa put total Middle East crude exports at about 18m b/d including bypass routes).
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing: implied probabilities by meeting, now and a week ago
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct | October hike 16.1% (16:25 ET, post-close), from 18.4% settled on 7 Oct, 20.7% intraday and 26.4% a week ago. December: 68.6% one hike, 12.5% two, so 81.1% for at least one. Prediction markets ≈16% for October (aggregator) | Hawkish, December |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 | ≈24–26% for 3 Nov (centralbank.watch, ASX data 8 Oct; the page shows both 24.0% and 25.7%); Dec ≈54% cumulative; Feb ≈92%. Westpac and ANZ forecast a hike; CBA, NAB, Bendigo hold | Tightening bias |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep, unanimous | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 | October ≈8%; December ≈78% cumulative (tracker, 7 Oct). Reuters poll: nearly all 73 economists see a hold on 29 Oct | No pre-set path |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | 86.7% hike; about 104bp over nine meetings (tracker, 7 Oct). Budget Wed 28 Oct | Hawkish |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct (boj.or.jp) | Conflicting: ≈0% (centralbank.watch, 6 Oct; on our discard list for BoJ) against about one in four (investingLive, 5 Oct). Dec ≈64% cumulative | Gradual |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp 2 Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 (one calendar has Tue 27 Oct) | No OIS source obtained | Removing stimulus |
| RBI | 5.50% | +25bp 7 Oct, 6–0 | Fri 4 Dec | Stance "calibrated tightening"; INR near record low | Hiking |
| PBoC | LPR (levels not re-read) | Unchanged | Fix today 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct 12:00 | Thursday's fix 6.7367 vs 6.7254 estimate: leaning against yuan strength | On hold |
| BoC · SNB | 2.25% · 0.00% | Held | BoC Thu 29 Oct 00:45 · SNB 10 Dec | Canada labour force tonight 23:30 (cons ≈+6k, 6.5%) | On hold |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Held · +25bp 24 Sep | Wed 4 Nov 18:30 · Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Both signal further tightening | Hawkish |
| NBP · BCRP · NBR | 3.75% · 4.25% · 6.50% | Poland held 7 Oct · Peru held 7 Oct (a hike was expected) · Romania outcome not confirmed | 4 Nov · 12 Nov · 12 Nov | Peru's hold surprised; inflation 4.55% | Holds |
| Banxico · BCB · BoK | 6.50% · 13.75% · 3.00% | Banxico minutes 8 Oct: risks "skewed to the upside" | Banxico 6 Nov · BoK Thu 22 Oct · Copom date unverified | USD/MXN +1.2% on Thursday (cause not found) | Mixed |
Fed. Waller's message on Thursday matched the minutes: more hikes are likely needed, the pace is flexible, and the next move need not come at the next meeting. October pricing rose to 20.7% at 12:45 ET as oil rallied, then fell to 16.1% by 16:25 ET as yields dropped after the 30-year auction; we read the round trip as oil versus duration demand rather than a response to Waller, whose remarks were stamped before the US open. That is an inference. The September CPI on Wed 14 Oct, 23:30 AEDT (prior 3.4% y/y, core 2.4%; only model forecasts found) and UMich expectations tonight are the two inputs before the 17 October blackout.
ECB accounts. Members agreed inflation risks are to the upside but saw "no significant broadening" and no second-round effects yet. Two lines matter for markets: the hike should not be presented as a step in a predetermined cycle, and an orderly long-end repricing "could have implications for appropriate policy rates in the future". That is the Council telling the market that higher bond yields are doing some of its work. Some members also saw a meaningful chance the Middle East conflict is resolved in the autumn.
BoE. Bailey linked fiscal credibility to market functioning a fortnight before the 28 October Budget; Greene said it is "quite dangerous" to assume markets will tighten for the Bank. A November hike is about 87% priced.
Regional briefs
United States
An AI rotation inside a resilient index, and a hawkish Fed on a flexible pace. The S&P ended the week 0.55% higher despite two down days from Tuesday's record; the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% on Thursday while the Dow rose. The week's data were firm: claims 197k, continuing claims 1.71m, the August trade deficit $105.6bn (widest since March 2025), and one-year inflation expectations 3.9% (NY Fed). Treasury demand was strong at all three coupon auctions. The government is funded to 11 December. Q3 earnings begin with the banks next week (JPMorgan Tue 13 Oct 22:00 AEDT; Citi 23:00; Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo pre-market Tuesday; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Wednesday). FactSet has Q3 EPS growth at 29.5% and the forward P/E at 19.0×, below its five-year average of 19.8×. Prediction markets give Democrats about 90% for the House on 3 November (Kalshi via an aggregator).
Euro area
Oil and banks hurt equities; the ECB declined to pre-commit. The DAX closed below 25,000 at 24,807 and the Stoxx 600 fell 0.75% on Thursday, with banks at a three-month low for a second day and argenx −18% on a trial halt. German August industrial production rose 2.0% (consensus 0.5%) and the August trade surplus was €19.5bn. The ECB accounts and speakers pointed to a hold on 29 October. France's PLF 2027 (5.0% deficit target, record gross issuance of about €340bn) is in committee with a vote expected around 17 November; student protests continue. Spain's 10-year is at its highest since December 2013 ahead of a 29 November snap election. Ecofin meets today.
United Kingdom
The gilt 10-year touched a 19-year high before closing lower. The 10-year hit 5.51% intraday on Thursday (highest since July 2007) and closed about 5.43%; the 30-year closed about 5.94% after briefly trading back above 6% on Wednesday. Bailey called credible fiscal plans "needed more than ever" and described market moves as "some way from normal" but not stressed; Greene, who has voted for a hike three times, warned against letting yields do the Bank's work. A November hike is about 87% priced. RICS house prices fell to −32. The FTSE 100 fell 0.16%, helped by Tesco (+5%) and Imperial Brands (+4.7%) buybacks. The Budget is Wed 28 Oct; August GDP is Thu 15 Oct.
Japan
Tech and banks fell; the 30-year auction found demand. The Nikkei fell 1.42% to 69,042.11, its second straight fall, with SoftBank Group −4.3%, MUFG −3.3% and Taiyo Yuden −4.4%; Kioxia rose 2.9%. The 30-year JGB auction drew demand "firmer than the 12-month average" (Bloomberg headline; the Finance Ministry's results page did not load, so cover and tail are not available). JGB yields eased: 10-year 3.09%, 30-year about 4.18%. USD/JPY was about 157.9–158.1. Markets are closed Monday for Sports Day. The BoJ decides on Fri 30 October; October hike pricing is disputed between sources.
China & Hong Kong
A weak reopening, a weak-side fix. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.79% to 3,811.90 on its first session after Golden Week, a two-month low, and Shenzhen fell 2.07% to its lowest in more than ten months; energy names rose and AI hardware fell. The Hang Seng lost 1.43% to 23,785.79 and HS Tech 2.89%. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7367, 113 pips weaker than the Reuters estimate, with onshore spot near 6.70: a clear lean against yuan strength. Official Golden Week totals are not out; Commerce Ministry data for 1–3 October showed key-district sales +5.3% y/y, and Citi called early data "underwhelming". The fifth plenum is 26–29 October; CPI/PPI Wed 14 Oct and Q3 GDP Mon 19 Oct.
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Chips and banks led a broad sell-off. The KOSPI fell 2.62% to 6,625.93 despite Samsung's record preliminary Q3 operating profit of ₩107.4tn (revenue ₩195tn); whether it beat consensus conflicts between sources. Korea is shut today for Hangul Day and Taiwan for National Day. The TAIEX fell 0.75% (TSMC −1.35%). India's Nifty fell 1.64% to a 32-month low after the RBI's hike, and the rupee is near its record low (about 97.1). Singapore's STI fell 3.49% as DBS, OCBC and UOB fell about 5%. Peru held rates against expectations of a hike; Banxico's minutes flagged upside inflation risks; USD/MXN rose 1.2% without a clear cause. Brazil's IPCA is tonight and its runoff is Sun 25 Oct.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA: the market moved toward the hawks this week
The cash rate is 4.60%, the highest since 2011. The ASX-based tracker on 8 October has about 24–26% for a 3 November hike (the page shows 24.0% and 25.7%), about 54% by December and about 92% by February, roughly 23bp over three meetings. That is up from about 17% on Tuesday. Trading Economics carries a lower 20%; we use the tracker. Bank calls: Westpac and ANZ hike in November; CBA, NAB and Bendigo hold. No RBA speech was found this week (the RBA pages served undated content). Former board member Ian Harper called a hike before year-end "plausible"; he is not a current official. Next: minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30, labour force Thu 15 Oct 11:30, Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct 11:30 (ABS calendar), decision Tue 3 Nov 14:30.
Data this week. Westpac-MI consumer sentiment 80.4 (−4.7%); ANZ-Indeed job ads +2.2% m/m (+12.9% y/y); S&P Global services PMI still in expansion; ABS Q2 dwelling commencements +7% to 52,201. Not obtained: NAB September survey (due Tuesday), home lending and the Cotality daily index.
Markets: the index turns negative for 2026
Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,660.9 (−66.8, −0.77%) on its low (Market Index body dateline 8 Oct 16:22; ABC agrees). The All Ords fell 0.80% and Small Ords 1.22%. Sectors: staples +1.4%, energy +1.4%, utilities +1.3%; materials −2.0%, financials −1.0%, industrials −0.9%. CBA fell 1.5% to $148.12, near its lowest since April 2025; Fortescue fell about 1.2% after September-quarter shipments fell 6% to 46.8Mt. ASX Ltd rose 3.9% on a UBS target increase; Macquarie Technology fell 21.6% on Firmus IPO concerns (the offer price may be cut from $11 to as low as $8.25, per the AFR via ABC); Lovisa fell 9.0% after its CFO resigned. The 6 October close is now settled at 8,735.7, not the 8,733.30 we published in No. 023. On the week (Fri 2 Oct 8,682.1) the index is −0.24%. Breadth and the SPI were not obtained.
Rates and currency. The ACGB 10-year was 5.39% (Market Index) to 5.41% (TE), the 3-year 4.90–4.93% and the 30-year 5.88% (−1bp from Wednesday's record). The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.6956 (−0.20%), AUD/NZD 1.2413 (−0.16%), TWI 64.7. All verified.
Housing and the China link
Pass-through lands today. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ lift variable rates by 25bp from Friday 9 October (single secondary source; banks' own releases not checked). Cotality's preliminary capital-city clearance rate fell to 45.4%, the lowest since July, on 1,212 auctions (−38% y/y); Melbourne 50.4%, Sydney 49.3%. The first auction weekend under the higher rates is 10–11 October. China. The mainland reopened weaker and the yuan fix leaned weak. Iron ore was about $91–92/t (TE $91.13 on 7 October, ABC $92.15 at 14:30 on Thursday); TE has it down about 5.7% on the week. Fortescue's shipments fell 6%. Copper's LME cash price rose 1.1% on the week to $14,510 with stocks falling four sessions running.
New Zealand
The NZX 50 rose 0.06% to 13,691.85 (single source). NZD/USD was about 0.5601, near an 11-month low. The RBNZ's OCR is 2.75% after two 25bp hikes; the next decision is Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT on our calendar, but one vendor calendar lists Tue 27 Oct in New York time; we have not resolved it on rbnz.govt.nz and flag it. No OIS pricing was obtained this week. AUD/NZD on the RBA table fell from 1.2451 on Tuesday to 1.2413 on Thursday, still 0.8% above V023's entry.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 · ≈24–26% priced |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) | 80.4 (−4.7%) | 84.4 | November survey |
| ANZ-Indeed job ads (Sep) | +2.2% m/m | +12.9% y/y; fifth straight rise | — |
| Auction clearance (prelim, capitals) | 45.4% | Lowest since July; 1,212 auctions | Weekend 10–11 Oct |
| Mortgage pass-through | +25bp, big four | Single secondary source | Effective today |
| NAB business survey (Sep) | — | Confidence prior −8 | Tue 13 Oct 11:30 |
| Labour force (Sep) | — | Prior +39.5k, 4.6% | Thu 15 Oct 11:30 (ABS) |
| Quarterly CPI (Q3) | — | V006's resolution date | Wed 28 Oct 11:30 (ABS) |
| ACGB 10y · 30y · AU–US 10y | 5.39–5.41% · 5.88% · ≈+17bp | 30y record 5.89% on 7 Oct | — |
House views & tactical framework
Nothing fired. AP's Wednesday tabulation printed the S&P at 7,801.77, so V028's closure (wrong) stands and is no longer provisional. V030 moved to its best official mark (64bp, 7 October par) but neither upgrade condition is met. V017's CCC leg set a new high. V025's own series re-widened to 134.4bp. V006 gained as the ASX fell 0.77%. V023 gave back 20 pips on the RBA table. V024 is marked on a corroborated December settle ($100.20, 7 October). We considered a replacement equity hedge after Thursday's AI sell-off and did not open one: the pre-written trigger needs a Russell close below its 6 October low with the S&P below 7,750, and the Russell rose.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| US 5s30s (V030) | Steepener | Low | 1–3 mo | 64bp on official par (7 Oct: 5y 5.03%, 30y 5.67%), against a 57bp entry: +7bp, the view's best mark. The week to Wednesday was a textbook steepener (2-year −6bp, 30-year +4bp) as the Fed path softened at the front and supply weighed on the long end. Thursday's vendor levels (≈60bp) point to a flatter 8 October row after a clean 30-year auction (0.1bp tail, dealers 6.79%) | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (14bp away). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par. Both legs were close on 7 October (64bp; 5.67%); neither is met. Monday is a US bond holiday |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | 134.4bp on the dedicated series for 7 October, +40bp from a ≈94bp entry (6 Oct 127.4; 2 Oct 146.9, the series' one-year high). The RN-driven compression has partly reversed. The ECB accounts promise no backstop and rule none out. Moody's reviews France on Fri 23 Oct (Aa3, negative); the budget vote is expected around 17 November; Spain votes 29 November | UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (54bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct. A second RN signal of budget support is the main threat; a Moody's downgrade the main catalyst in our favour |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | Med | 1–3 mo | 7 October (FRED): IG 82bp (−1), HY 309bp (+6), CCC 1,229bp (+15), a new series high. CCC has widened in seven of eight sessions (from 1,112 on 24 Sep) and 27bp on the week while IG tightened 3bp: the quality split the view is built around. Same-day CCC/IG ≈15.0× | UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (179bp away). Raising conviction needs HY to widen alongside CCC on more than one session; Wednesday was one (+6bp) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +3.83% in favour: 8,660.9 against 9,005.9. The index is negative for 2026 on the day the pass-through lands. November pricing rose to ≈24–26%, clearance fell to 45.4%, and materials (−2.0%) added a China leg after a weak mainland reopening. Against it: job ads up a fifth month and a lower ACGB long end on Thursday | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (2.8% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct; the minutes (13 Oct) and labour force (15 Oct) come first |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2413 on the RBA 4pm table (8 Oct), +0.80% from ≈1.2315; −38 pips since Tuesday. The rate premise moved our way (RBA November pricing up ten points this week, the RBNZ path unchanged), but the cross fell with risk appetite. V023 and V006 share an Australian driver | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (163 pips away). The RBA minutes (13 Oct) and the RBNZ (28 Oct; date to be confirmed) are the dates |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December settled $100.20 on 7 October (corroborated); ≈$103.5–104 on 8 October (vendor, no settle). Thursday showed what the residual call is for: tanker attacks north of Qatar, Pentagon readiness reports and a Gulf storm took Brent to about $105.9 intraday | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$10.7 below the 7 Oct settle). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms. IEA board 14–15 Oct |
Friday scorecard: what we got right and wrong this week. Six views open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. The trailing-20 cut was not recomputed this week (the full closed table sits in the No. 018 ledger); on the closed set it can only be the same or worse. Two views closed this week, both wrong: one on Monday 5 October and V028 (S&P downside convexity) on Thursday's edition, stopped by a close 1.77 points above its line and confirmed by AP. Right this week: the open book. Every open view moved in its favour or held: V030 +7bp to its best mark, V025 +40bp, V017's CCC leg to a new high, V006 +3.8%. Wrong this week: V028's premise that weak breadth would reach the index. Breadth did deteriorate (the Russell fell 1.37% on the week) and the index still made a record. The lesson we are taking is narrower than "breadth does not matter": the hedge should have been sized to the leadership (AI hardware, which fell sharply on Thursday) rather than to the index. Our record on direction is poor, and we publish it as it is; the closes remain disciplined, seven in a row on written conditions.
Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit (V017), tilted against Australian rate-sensitive equities and toward the AUD against the NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). Thursday was a good day for the shape of the book (CCC, ASX, oil) and a mild one for V030. Its uncovered risks are a bull flattener after a run of strong auctions, and an equity sell-off led by AI hardware, which the book does not hedge.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
⚠ The CFTC data are as of Tuesday 29 September. The next report (6 October positions) is due Friday 15:30 ET, 06:30 AEDT Saturday; the CFTC schedule shows no delay. Gold, silver, copper and crude are legacy non-commercial, not managed money.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — positions as of Tue 29 September | |||
| CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs | −6,576,935 | −59,113 on the week | 2y −1.17m (shorts cut 185k) · 5y −1.99m · 10y −2.04m · ultra-10 −328k · bond −251k · ultra-bond −809k. Ties to the carried 22 Sep total. Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove |
| E-mini S&P 500 | LF −372,489 · AM +904,003 | LF +3,085 | Legacy non-commercial −142,499 |
| FX — TFF leveraged funds vs legacy non-commercial | JPY −14,161 vs +55,440 · AUD +60,592 vs −63,239 · GBP +4,606 vs −91,075 | Sign disagrees on three pairs | Always name the series. EUR LF −39,265; CAD LF −69,644 |
| Gold · copper · WTI — legacy non-commercial | +218,632 · +85,411 · +109,463 | −7,221 · −5,111 · −31,643 | WTI specs added 32k shorts into a week that ended with a 4% rally |
| Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted | |||
| ICI long-term funds + ETFs (w/e 30 Sep) | −$1.97bn | domestic equity −$7.33bn | Verified. Bonds +$3.46bn. MMF assets $7.89tn (−$45.5bn); the 8 Oct release was not yet on the page |
| BofA Flow Show (1 Oct) | Bull & Bear 8.8 | from 9.3; still "sell" | Record municipal inflow (EPFR); long-dated bond funds +$7.4bn. Secondary summary; ICI's municipal figure for the same week is negative (definitions differ) |
| BofA Follow the Flow (EPFR, to 30 Sep) | Fixed income −$2.67bn | worst since early April | European IG −$1.93bn, HY −$448m (4th week); EM debt +$2.28bn (9th week). Secondary summary |
| US spot crypto ETFs (Farside) | BTC −$484.9m (7 Oct) | week −$455.9m | Largest outflow in the rows shown. ETH −$506.4m over 1–7 Oct, five straight outflow days |
| Sentiment and volatility | |||
| AAII (w/e 7 Oct) | Bulls 40.3 · Bears 39.0 | spread +1.3, from −11.9 | Verified. First non-negative spread since at least 9 September; a 13-point swing in a week |
| BofA FMS (Sep) | Cash 3.9% · net 49% OW equities | net 48% UW bonds | Top tail risk: disorderly yields. Most crowded: long semis (53%) — the trade that broke on Thursday. October survey date unconfirmed |
| VIX term structure (7 Oct) | VIX 15.08 · VIX3M 17.72 | ratio 0.851 | Contango, day 127. VIX closed 15.42 on 8 Oct (single source) |
| CBOE SKEW (7 Oct) · put/call (6 Oct) | 141.8 · 0.82 | 27th pct (1 yr) · 17th pct | Re-fetched. Downside protection remains cheap |
| Fear & Greed replica (7 Oct) | 42, Fear | 44 a week ago | Price strength 3 (32 highs vs 325 lows); safe-haven demand 90 |
| Breadth, technicals and valuation | |||
| % of S&P members above 200-day (7 Oct) | 47.0% | 50.2% on 6 Oct | Single source. MS's Wilson: from 75% in summer |
| New highs / lows · McClellan (7 Oct) | 32 / 325 · −19.7 | from −2.0 | Broad universe, not NYSE-only. Hindenburg inactive (3 of 4) |
| S&P moving averages (7 Oct) | 20d 7,798 · 50d 7,733 · 100d 7,721 · 200d 7,691 | re-fetched | Thursday's 7,765 is below the 20-day; the 100/200-day band at 7,691–7,721 is support |
| FactSet (2 Oct) | Fwd P/E 19.0× · Q3 EPS +29.5% | 5-yr avg 19.8× | 72 positive guiders (record since 2006), 44 negative. IT +65%, energy +114%. Bottom-up target 9,281 |
| Strategist targets | GS 12m 8,700 · BofA YE 7,400 · Citi YE 8,100 · JPM YE 7,800 | Panmure Liberum 2027 YE 5,000 (5 Oct) | Only Panmure's is dated this week; others carried with their dates |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday 9 October — pass-through day · Korea and Taiwan shut | ||||||
| Fri | open | — | AU big-four variable rates +25bp · Ecofin · CNY fix 12:15 | H | ||
| Fri | 10:30 | Thu 19:30 | JP household spending (Aug) y/y | −3.5% | −3.6% | L |
| Fri | 19:00 | 04:00 | IT industrial production (Aug) m/m | 0.0% | +0.7% | L |
| Fri | 23:00 | 09:00 | BR IPCA (Sep) y/y | 4.5% | 4.22% | L |
| Fri | 23:30 | 08:30 | CA labour force (Sep) · unemployment rate | +6–7k · 6.5% | −41.7k · 6.4% | H |
| Fri | 00:30 Sat | 09:30 | US KC Fed's Schmid · Delta Q3 (pre-market) | M | ||
| Fri | 01:00 Sat | 10:00 | US UMich sentiment (Oct prelim) · 1-year inflation expectations | 47.5–47.6 · — | 48.1 · 4.6% | H |
| Sat | 06:30 · 07:00 | Fri 15:30 · 16:00 | CFTC COT (6 Oct positions) · Fed's Collins | M | ||
| Monday 12 October — US Columbus Day (bond market closed; NYSE status not verified) · Japan and Canada holidays | ||||||
| Mon | all week | — | IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok, 12–18 Oct (WEO date not confirmed) · India CPI · BoE Breeden, Mann | IN 4.9% (TE model) | IN 4.82% | M |
| Tuesday 13 October — RBA minutes · US banks report | ||||||
| Tue | 11:30 | Mon 20:30 | RBA minutes (September meeting) · NAB business survey (Sep) | NAB −9 (TE model) | −8 | H |
| Tue | 10:50 · 17:00 | Mon 19:50 · 02:00 | JP PPI · DE final HICP (Sep) | 7.6% · — | M | |
| Tue | 21:00 | 06:00 | US NFIB small business (Sep) | 96 (TE model) | 98.7 | M |
| Tue | 22:00 · 23:00 | 07:00 · 08:00 | JPMorgan · Citigroup Q3 · Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (pre-market) | H | ||
| 13–15 | — | — | CN new loans / M2 (Sep) | M2 7.5% | M | |
| Wednesday 14 October — US CPI · China CPI and trade | ||||||
| Wed | 12:30 · ~14:00 | Tue 21:30 | CN CPI · PPI (Sep) · CN trade (Sep, time tentative) | 0.8% · 3.8% | 0.8% · 3.8% | H |
| Wed | day | — | ASML Q3 (time unverified) · BoE Pill (Bangkok) · IEA governing board 14–15 Oct (unconfirmed) | H | ||
| Wed | 23:30 | 08:30 | US CPI (Sep), BLS-confirmed · headline y/y · core y/y · Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Q3 | 3.6% · 2.4% (TE model; no street consensus found) | 3.4% · 2.4% | H |
| Wed | 05:00 Thu | 14:00 | US Beige Book | M | ||
| Thursday 15 October — Australian jobs · UK GDP · US PPI and retail sales · TSMC | ||||||
| Thu | 11:30 | Wed 20:30 | AU labour force (Sep) (ABS) · RBA Annual Report | +39.5k · 4.6% | H | |
| Thu | 17:00 | 02:00 | UK GDP (Aug) · TSMC Q3 call (14:00 Taiwan) | UK +0.4% m/m | H | |
| Thu | 20:00 | 05:00 | EZ industrial production (Aug) | −0.1% | M | |
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US PPI · retail sales (Sep) · Empire · Philly Fed · claims | PPI +0.4% · retail +1.2% | H | |
| Friday 16 – Saturday 17 October | ||||||
| Fri | 13:00 · 20:00 | Thu 22:00 · 05:00 | BoE Bailey (IIF, Bangkok) · EZ final HICP (Sep) | HICP 3.8%, core 2.5% | M | |
| Fri | 23:30 · 00:15 Sat | 08:30 · 09:15 | US import prices · industrial production · Fed blackout begins Sat 17 Oct | IP 0.0% | M | |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 19–23 Oct | 13:00 Mon | — | CN Q3 GDP Mon 19 · NZ Q3 CPI Tue 20 · PBoC LPR Tue 20 · UK labour Tue 20 · UK CPI Wed 21 · BoK Thu 22 · flash PMIs Fri 23 · Moody's France Fri 23 | H | ||
| 25–30 Oct | — | — | Brazil runoff Sun 25 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 (Tue 27 per one calendar) · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · US Q3 GDP Thu 29 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 · US ECI Fri 30 · China plenum 26–29 | H | ||
| Nov–Jan | 14:30 Tue 3 | — | OPEC+ 1 Nov · RBA 3 Nov · US midterms 3 Nov · Riksbank 4 Nov · BoE 5 Nov · BIS rule suspension ends 9 Nov · French budget vote ≈17 Nov · S&P France 27 Nov · Spain 29 Nov · US funding 11 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan | H | ||
⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column does not render. "TE model" marks Trading Economics' own forecast, not a survey consensus; street consensus for US CPI, PPI and retail sales was not found. Columbus Day: the bond-market closure follows SIFMA's usual practice and the NYSE is assumed open; neither was verified. From 26 October Europe moves to CET; from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oil and US CPI combine to revive October | UMich tonight · US CPI Wed 14 Oct 23:30 AEDT · Brent ≈$104 | Oct hike 16.1% (futures, 16:25 ET; 20.7% intraday); ≈16% (prediction markets, aggregator) | A hot print with Brent above $100 pulls the December hike into October; front end reprices, dollar up | 2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry |
| 2 | The AI-hardware de-rating spreads to the index | Thursday's NDX −1.39%; TSMC Thu 15 Oct; ASML Wed 14 Oct; S&P 100/200-day band 7,691–7,721 | FMS: long semis most crowded (53%, Sep) | The book has no equity hedge. Leadership is concentrated: IT carries much of FactSet's 29.5% Q3 growth | NDX or SOX put spreads rather than S&P; SKEW at the 27th percentile keeps them cheap |
| 3 | Gulf escalation: strikes resume or attacks spread | Attacks north of Qatar; Pentagon readiness reports; Trump: no strike before 3 Nov | — | Brent tested $105.9 on Thursday. Product cracks and freight move first; inflation expectations follow | V024's residual call; product-crack optionality; no flat-price length on single claims |
| 4 | Credit stress spreads from CCC to HY | CCC 1,229bp, a new high; HY +6bp on 7 Oct | — | A second session of HY widening alongside CCC would mark the stress moving up the curve | V017; CDX HY protection |
| 5 | The long end breaks out on supply | Gilt 10y 5.51% intraday; US 30y 5.67% par; refunding late Oct; UK Budget 28 Oct | Disorderly yields: FMS top tail risk (Sep) | Three strong US auctions argue against it this week; oil and the UK Budget are the inputs that would change that | V030; 30-year payer swaptions |
| 6 | Bull flattener after strong demand | US bond holiday Mon; CPI Wed | — | LF short 6.58m Treasury contracts (29 Sep). A soft CPI and an AI sell-off could squeeze the long end and flatten 5s30s, against V030 | V030's 50bp stop; no extra hedge |
| 7 | The RBA hikes into a demand shock | Pass-through today; minutes 13 Oct; jobs 15 Oct; CPI 28 Oct | RBA Nov ≈24–26% (ASX tracker, 8 Oct) | Clearance 45.4%, sentiment 80.4 and the ASX negative for 2026 before the hike lands | V006; AU 3-year as the cleaner rate expression |
| 8 | French ratings and budget | Moody's Fri 23 Oct; budget vote ≈17 Nov; Spain 29 Nov | — | OAT–Bund 134.4bp and rising again on its own series; a downgrade widens it, RN budget support narrows it | V025; bank equity puts as second-order |
| 9 | China's reopening keeps disappointing | CPI/PPI Wed 14; trade ~Wed 14; Q3 GDP Mon 19; plenum 26–29 Oct | — | Shanghai −0.79% and a weak-side fix on day one; iron ore −5.7% on the week (TE). Hits ASX materials and AUD | AUD/CNH; ASX materials underweight inside V006 |
| 10 | Crypto de-risking accelerates | BTC ETF −$485m on 7 Oct; ETH outflows 8 of 9 days | — | BTC low $80,507 on Thursday; about $1.14bn of liquidations (secondary) | No crypto view open |
| 11 | US midterms | Tue 3 Nov | Dem House ≈90% (Kalshi via aggregator); Dem sweep ≈63% | FMS respondents flag a sweep as a tail risk; Citi flags tax and AI-policy risk | Q4 collars |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | 7,750 · 7,721 (100d) · 7,691 (200d) | 7,798 (20d) · 7,818.93 (record close) | MAs from Investing.com (7 Oct). Replacement-hedge trigger: Russell below its 6 Oct low with S&P < 7,750 |
| Nasdaq-100 · Russell 2000 | 30,725.81 · 2,794.13 | 30,500 · 2,793 (7 Oct) | 31,160 · 2,832.90 (2 Oct) | Round-number and prior-close levels, not proprietary |
| UST 5s30s · 2s10s | 64bp par (7 Oct) · ≈60bp vendor · 51bp | 50 (V030 closes) · 57 (entry) | 65 (V030 upgrades, with 30y par > 5.70%) | 8 Oct par row ~09:00 AEDT; no row on Mon 12 Oct |
| UST 30y · 10y · 2y | ≈5.58 · ≈5.23 · ≈4.75% (vendor) | 5.56 · 5.20 · 4.72 | 5.70 (V030 leg) · 5.73 / 5.36 (7 Oct intraday) | 30y auction 5.618% |
| OAT–Bund | 134.4bp (7 Oct, dedicated) | 80 (V025 closes) · 127.4 (6 Oct) | 146.9 (one-year high) | TE legs ≈142.7bp (different benchmark) |
| Gilt 10y · 30y · JGB 30y | 5.43 · 5.94 · ≈4.18% | 5.35 · 5.90 · 4.10 | 5.51 (19-yr high) · 6.00 · 4.25 | Vendor |
| ACGB 10y · 30y | 5.39–5.41% · 5.88% | 5.35 · 5.80 | 5.45 · 5.89 (record) | Source basis differs by 2bp |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 102.16 · 1.1206 · 157.88 | 101.75 · 1.1160 · 157.5 | 102.54 (5 Oct high) · 1.1262 · 158.5 · 160 | DXY high 102.54 per Vantage |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.6956 · 1.2413 (RBA) | 0.6936 · 0.6900 · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.7000 · 1.2451 · 1.2500 | RBA 4pm basis |
| Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov) | ≈$103.5–104 · ≈$91 (8 Oct, vendor) | $100.20 (7 Oct settle) · $86.53–89.53 (V024) | $105.91 (8 Oct high) · $107 | 8 Oct settles not obtained |
| Gold · Silver | $4,133.60 · $59.11 | $4,102.90 · $4,065.70 · $59.00 | $4,146.70 · $4,171 · $61.59 | Kitco ranges |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,660.9 | 8,614 · 8,600 | 8,736 · 8,900 (V006 closes) · 9,005.9 | Closed on its low; negative for 2026 |
| Nikkei · KOSPI · Hang Seng | 69,042 · 6,625.93 · 23,785.79 | 68,500 · 6,500 · 23,500 | 70,036 · 6,804 · 24,130 | Prior closes as resistance; supports are round numbers |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 82 / 309 / 1,229bp (7 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 300 | HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,229 (new high) | FRED; 8 Oct not posted |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,500 | $80,507 (8 Oct low) · $80,000 | $83,300 · $85,659 | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six research desks ran in parallel from 06:05 AEDT, when the US cash session still had an hour to run (AEDT = EDT + 15h). The US desk held its close block until after the bell and obtained AP's Thursday tabulation (posted 15:20 CDT) and Wednesday tabulation, so every US cash close and week-to-date change in this edition is AP's. The official Treasury par curve was read to 7 October; the 8 October row posts about 09:00 AEDT. The Fed Rate Monitor refreshed to a 16:25 ET post-close stamp at about 07:58 AEDT and that read is used; the settled refresh had not posted. Spot checks by direct fetch at 07:50–08:05 AEDT: Kitco gold (16:47 ET), Trading Economics Brent, the Fed monitor, CoinDesk. Every figure was retrieved on 8–9 October 2026; nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 024
(1) MATERIAL: the ASX 200's 6 October close was 8,735.7 (Investing.com row; ABC "8,736"; implied by Wednesday's −8), not the 8,733.30 published in No. 023 and carried in No. 024. V006's marks are unaffected.
(2) MATERIAL: the FTSE 100's 6 October close was ≈10,541.69 (derived from Alliance News' 7 October close of 10,458.50, −83.19; TE corroborates), not 10,517.00. Wednesday's −0.79% stands.
(3) AP's Wednesday tabulation confirms the S&P at 7,801.77, so V028's closure is final. Its Russell 2000 close is 2,793.20 (−37.09), not 2,793.36.
(4) Brent December settled $100.20 on 7 October (−$0.38), inside the $100.30–101.01 range we published only at its lower edge. WTI November settled $88.28.
(5) The OAT–Bund dedicated series posted 134.4bp for 7 October; official par for 7 October has 5s30s at 64bp.
(6) EUR/USD on 7 October: TE's close was 1.1202, not the 1.1172 we published (an intraday level); the −0.80% move was overstated, and on closes the euro fell about 0.5%. DXY: 102.24 was not the highest since March 2025; ICE printed 102.54 on 5 October, described as the highest since April 2025.
(7) Poland and Peru held on 7 October (Peru against expectations of a hike). Settled Fed read for 7 October confirmed at 18.4%.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
US closes: AP preferred to investingLive (S&P 7,765.36 vs 7,765.47; Dow 51,231.64 vs 51,237.13). Brent 8 October: no settle; TE 103.49–103.70, Investing 104.00, TE board 104.69, high 105.91; shown as ≈$103.5–104. DXY: TE 102.16 used; a Yahoo 101.85 with no date rejected. ACGB: TE 10y 5.41% vs Market Index 5.39%; range shown. RBA November: the tracker shows 24.0% and 25.7% on one page; TE says about 20%; the tracker range is used. IBEX: 18,928.9 vs 19,090; withheld. Euro Stoxx 50 week: −1.79% derived vs MarketScreener's −0.71%; derived figure shown and labelled. Iran: one report has Trump no longer wanting a deal and strikes possible before the midterms; another quotes him ruling out an attack before them; we use the direct quote. Samsung vs consensus: "slightly below" vs "exceeded"; neither adopted. RBNZ date: Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT (carried; desk 2) vs Tue 27 Oct on one calendar; unresolved. Acers attack date: 7 vs 8 Oct. BoJ October pricing: ≈0% vs ≈25%; neither fresh.
Single-source and unverified items
The VIX close (Yahoo) · TOPIX · Shanghai, CSI 300 and STI closes (TE) · CAC and FTSE MIB (TE) · the FT OpenAI revenue report (via Yahoo) · the Pentagon readiness report · Gulf shut-in figures (two sources, same origin) · JGB 30-year auction tone (headlines) · ECB speaker headlines (Lane, Stournaras, Lagarde) · the big-four pass-through (one secondary source) · auction clearance (ABC citing Cotality, preliminary) · breadth, SKEW, put/call and Fear & Greed (one replica site each) · BofA Flow Show figures (secondary summaries) · prediction-market odds (aggregator) · crypto liquidations (CoinGlass via Bitcoin.com) · Firmus IPO pricing (AFR via ABC).
Not published
ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI settles for 8 October · the official 8 October par row · the settled 8 October Fed read · FRED OAS for 8 October · LME settlements for 8 October · SGX/Dalian iron ore · the SPI and indicative opens this morning · ASX breadth · JGB 30-year auction cover and tail · the HS Tech level · Fri 2 October closes for most non-US indices, gold, bitcoin and FX · the NAB September survey · Golden Week official totals · CoinShares weekly flows · ICI MMF for the week to 7 October · BofA Flow Show of 8 October · the October FMS date · US CPI street consensus · any Hormuz closure probability.
Monday's first verification targets
(1) Official par rows for 8 and 9 October (V030; no row on 12 October). (2) ICE Brent December settles for 8 and 9 October. (3) FRED OAS for 8 and 9 October: does HY follow CCC? (4) OAT–Bund dedicated series for 8 and 9 October. (5) The settled Fed read and UMich expectations. (6) CFTC report for 6 October positions. (7) The RBNZ decision date on rbnz.govt.nz. (8) Columbus Day NYSE status. (9) Weekend auction clearance under the new mortgage rates.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- AP via KRMG — Thursday tabulation · AP via La Nación — Wednesday tabulation · investingLive — close wrap · SPY · QQQ · Yahoo — markets live · TheStreet · Yahoo — VIX
- US Treasury — par yield curve, October 2026 · investingLive — 30-year auction · Vault Report — auctions
- Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · investingLive — Waller · BLS — October schedule · Fortune — trade deficit · DeFi Rate — prediction markets
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · NYMEX · release schedule · ICI · ICI MMF · BofA Flow Show via Finvaulta · Follow the Flow
- AAII · VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call · Fear & Greed replica · highs/lows · breadth · S&P technicals · FactSet — 2 October · MarketScreener — Panmure Liberum · Goldman Sachs — AI capex
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · centralbank.watch — RBA · BoE · ECB · BoJ — schedule · investingLive — BoJ odds
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — Bund · OAT · Gilt · JGB · ACGB · Bloomberg — JGB 30-year
- TE — DXY and crosses · TE — currencies · Yahoo — USD/JPY · FXStreet — PBoC fix · Vantage — DXY
- Econostream — ECB accounts · Reuters via WBOW — ECB · Reuters via Investing — Bailey · Greene · FXStreet — Banxico minutes · AFT — France ratings calendar
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- Market Index — evening wrap, 8 October · ABC — markets live, 8 October · ABC — 6 October · Investing.com — ASX history · Integrated Finance — pass-through · ABS — release calendar
- Nikkei Indexes · TE — Japan · China · Investing.com — Hang Seng · Financial News — KOSPI · Aju Press — Samsung · TE — India · STI · NZX · Xinhua — Golden Week
Europe and geopolitics
- MarketScreener — Stoxx 600 · Euro Stoxx 50 · dpa-AFX — DAX · Yahoo UK — FTSE · Alliance News — 7 Oct close · Reuters via WTVB — European banks · Newsquawk · ForexFactory · IMF — Annual Meetings
- Euronews — tankers outside Hormuz · Euronews — oil · The Hill — Trump on Iran · straits.live · Windward · Al Jazeera · Newsquawk — Rabigh claim · US–China truce
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Investing.com — Brent history · TE — Brent · Reuters via Yahoo — oil · OGJ — Hormuz and Isaias · AJOT — IEA · TE — commodities
- Kitco — gold · silver · Westmetall — copper · aluminium · TE — iron ore
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · ConvexTrade — HY
- CoinGecko · CoinMarketCap · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · Bitcoin.com — liquidations · Coinalyze · DeFi Rate — CLARITY