Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things before the open, in order of P&L relevance. What changed since Wednesday's edition is the first clause of each.

The S&P closed above 7,800 for a second day, by less than two points, so V028 is closed wrong on its own rule. Two independent post-close reports put the index at 7,801.77 (TheStreet, 16:03 ET) and 7,801.73 (investingLive), down 0.22% from Tuesday's record of 7,818.93, which AP's tabulation has now confirmed. Settled SPY fell 0.25%, which scales to about 7,799.6, but an ETF derivation never overrides a cash close, so the stop fired. The tape underneath was poor: the Russell 2000 fell 1.31% to 2,793.36, the Dow 0.66% and more than two-thirds of issues declined. We do not re-argue the close; if AP prints below 7,800 it will be corrected in the next edition. The book has no equity hedge from today.
The minutes said "most" officials expect another hike by year-end, and the market read that as December, not October. The record of the 15–16 September meeting (a 12–0 vote to 3.75–4.00%) says most participants judged a further increase "would likely be appropriate by year end", and "many" saw a higher path as prudent risk management. There is no October timing signal. Futures had 18.4% on a 28 October hike at 15:15 ET, after the minutes, down from 21.8% the day before and 37.9% a week earlier; December carries about 80% for at least one hike. Separately, New York Fed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest since 2023. Read: the front end has priced the guidance; it is the inflation-expectations line that keeps December live.
The long end hit new 24-year highs intraday and then found buyers at the 10-year auction. The 10-year traded as high as about 5.36% and the 30-year about 5.73% in the New York morning, both highs since 2002 (press). The $39bn 10-year then stopped through when-issued by 1.7bp at 5.300% with a 2.77 bid-to-cover, the strongest demand of the week (bidder split single source: indirects 80.3%, dealers 2.5%). Vendor closes put the 10-year back near 5.27% and the 30-year near 5.66%. On the official curve, 5s30s was 61bp on 6 October, one above Monday and eleven above V030's stop. The 30-year's intraday touch of 5.73% does not count toward the upgrade, which needs an official close. The $22bn 30-year is at 04:00 Fri AEDT.
France gave back half of Tuesday's relief in one session, and the euro fell 0.8%. The OAT 10-year rose about 14bp to 4.89% while Bunds edged lower to 3.47%, putting the spread on Trading Economics' legs at about 142bp, up from about 127bp. The ECB's Moulin said there is no need for the ECB to intervene "as of now", and a German 2033 auction was weak (1.42× cover). The CAC fell 1.22% to its lowest close since March and Italian banks dragged the FTSE MIB down 2.51%. EUR/USD fell to about 1.1172 and the DXY rose to 102.24, its highest since March 2025 (vendor). V025's own series posted 127.4bp for 6 October, so the compression did reach it; the view is still 33bp in the money on its own mark and holds at Med.
Australian long bonds set a record, the ASX barely moved, and November RBA pricing rose to about 22%. The ACGB 30-year closed at 5.89%, the highest since the benchmark launched in 2016, and the 10-year rose 6bp to 5.41%, about 14bp over Treasuries. The ASX 200 slipped 0.09% to 8,727.7 as banks fell (CBA −1.3%) and healthcare and REITs rose. A tracker stamped 7 October has the 3 November hike at 22.0%, up from 17.1%; Westpac and ANZ forecast it, CBA and NAB do not. Big-four mortgage rates rise tomorrow. V006 is 3.09% in favour; V023 is marked at 1.2433 on the RBA table.
Commodities and crypto fell with the stronger dollar, and China reopens into it at 12:30. Gold fell to $4,110.50 (Kitco, 16:35 ET), about 1.6% below our last mark, and silver lost about 3%. Brent's 6 October settle is now corroborated at $100.58 (not the $100.68 vendor print we carried); Wednesday's settle is unverified in a $100.3–101.0 range despite a bullish 3.2m-barrel EIA crude draw. Bitcoin is about $83,300 (−2.6%), with about $547m of liquidations (CoinDesk). In credit, HY tightened 9bp to 303bp on 6 October while CCC widened to 1,214bp, 1bp from its series high. India hiked 25bp to 5.50%, unanimously. Mainland China, closed since 30 September, catches up on the week's moves today.

Overnight recap

Wednesday 7 October: Asia on chip selling and an Indian hike, Europe on French and banking stress, New York on the minutes and a strong auction.

United States: an intraday yield spike, a strong auction, and a close two points above the line

The S&P 500 closed 7,801.77 (−17.16, −0.22%), the Dow 51,179.87 (−341.41, −0.66%), the Nasdaq Composite 27,538.69 (−61.10, −0.22%) and the Russell 2000 2,793.36 (−36.94, −1.31%). Those are TheStreet's 16:03 ET closing figures. investingLive, at 20:14 UTC, has 7,801.73, 51,184.13, 27,538.69 and 2,793.21, and adds the Nasdaq-100 at 31,160.08 (−0.21%, single source). The Nasdaq change is computed here (TheStreet prints −61.20, which does not reconcile with Tuesday's close). Settled SPY and QQQ each fell 0.25%. The AP tabulation for Tuesday is now posted and confirms S&P 7,818.93, Dow 51,521.28 and Nasdaq 27,599.79; its Russell 2000 close is 2,830.30, not the 2,830.97 we carried, and Wednesday's change uses AP's figure. The VIX was about 15.08 late in the day (Cboe page with an ambiguous timestamp).

The session opened weak, with the S&P down 0.42% and the Russell down 0.59% at 09:32 ET, as the 10-year traded about 5.35–5.36% and the 30-year 5.72–5.73%, both described as the highest since 2002. The $39bn 10-year reopening at 13:00 ET then stopped at 5.300% against a 5.317% when-issued, a 1.7bp stop-through, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover against 2.71 last time. One source has indirect bidders at 80.3% and dealers at only 2.5% against an 8.8% average; that split is single source and unusually extreme. The minutes followed at 14:00 ET, and yields were "little changed" on them. By the close the 10-year was about 5.27% (about unchanged on the day) and the 30-year about 5.66% on vendor quotes, and the 2-year about 4.77%. The S&P spent the afternoon around −0.2% and never lost 7,800 at the close.

Data. The New York Fed's survey showed one-year inflation expectations at 3.9% from 3.6%, the highest since 2023; three- and five-year expectations were 3.3% and 3.0%. The EIA reported a 3.19m-barrel crude draw against a 1.7m build expected, but gasoline rose 0.38m (a 1.7m draw was expected) and distillates barely fell (−0.04m against −2.1m). Mortgage applications fell 4.2% as the MBA's 30-year rate rose to 7.49%. August consumer credit was not captured. Movers (intraday, not closes): Skyworks +3.4% as its Qorvo merger nears completion, Gilead +2.7%, Amgen +2.6%; Comfort Systems −5.9% on a downgrade, Constellation Brands −4.8% on an earnings miss, and SpaceX −1.7% on a report it is seeking $40bn for Nvidia chips. Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and Chevron was reported to be evacuating non-essential staff (single source).

Europe: French bonds and banks

It was the worst European session in weeks. On Newsquawk's closing figures the DAX fell 1.41% to 25,091, the CAC 1.22% to 7,769 (its lowest close since March), the Euro Stoxx 50 1.40% to 6,184, the FTSE MIB 2.51% to 49,972, the IBEX 1.68% to 19,118 and the FTSE 100 0.79% to 10,459. The Stoxx 600 close was not obtained (down about 0.4–0.6% intraday). Banks led the fall: Commerzbank and SocGen about −5%, Deutsche Bank −3.7%, HSBC −3.7%, and the Italian lenders down 3.6–4.2%. Chip stocks followed Asia lower (Infineon −5.8%, STMicro −4.1%). Autos rose on a report that the EU will limit imports of Chinese hybrids; China rejected the EU's request for voluntary limits as talks began.

The bond market did the damage. The OAT 10-year rose about 14bp to 4.89%, BTPs about 8bp to 4.64% and Spain about 5bp, while Bunds slipped to about 3.47%. A WSJ report that France is weighing more short-dated issuance briefly helped OATs before the finance ministry said there was "no change". The ECB's Moulin called the situation "complicated and serious" but said intervention is not warranted "as of now", which the market read as no backstop. A 2033 Bund auction drew a 1.42× cover. Gilts rose about 4bp to 5.44% (30-year 5.98%). Data were firmer: German industrial production rose 2.0% in August against a 0.5% consensus.

Asia: chips sold, India hiked

Asia fell on profit-taking in chip stocks as US yields rose. The Nikkei lost 0.92% to 70,035.71 (−648.27, which ties to the exchange's 6 October close), with Disco −6.3% and Tokyo Electron −2.4%. The KOSPI fell 1.98% to 6,803.90 as foreign investors sold a net ₩2.59tn; SK hynix fell 2.8%. The Hang Seng fell about 0.62% to about 24,130, with Alibaba −2.6%; its 6 October close is now resolved at 24,280.56. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike since February 2023, unanimously, and changed its stance to "calibrated tightening". The Sensex fell 0.59% and the Nifty 0.76%, and the rupee was about 96.6 onshore. BoJ board member Sato, who dissented in September, said she favours gradual hikes in stages.

The Gulf and Ukraine

Hormuz. The Panama-flagged tanker On Peace was hit about 9 nautical miles off Limah, Oman, on Tuesday; 12 of 19 crew were injured and Oman airlifted 10. No group claimed it. UK maritime authorities count nine attacks in the strait so far in October. Saudi Arabia. Reports of Wednesday's Houthi attacks on Saudi airports conflict: one report quotes the aviation authority on attacks on Abha and Riyadh airports with 3 dead and 36 injured, another on Jazan and Najran with 3 injured. There is still no Saudi or Aramco statement on the Rabigh refinery claim, and no October claim on Ras Tanura was found at all; the East–West pipeline remains at about 5.8m b/d on the minister's figure. Iraq devalued the dinar 14.5% as Hormuz disruption cut its oil revenue. US–Iran mediation is reported stalled. Ukraine: a Russian strike overnight into Wednesday killed at least 20 people, 14 of them in Pryluky, with energy infrastructure targeted.

This morning's setup

No timestamped SPI quote was obtained before filing; US equity futures were flat at the ASX cash close on Wednesday. The RBA's 4pm table had AUD/USD at 0.6970 and AUD/NZD at 1.2433; the AUD was about 0.6969 at the US close. Today: the Melbourne Institute inflation expectations (11:00 AEDT), China's reopening with the first fix since 30 September (12:15–12:30), Samsung's preliminary Q3 results, the JGB 30-year auction (14:35), the ECB accounts (22:30) and US jobless claims (23:30), then the US 30-year auction at 04:00 Friday.

Market dashboard

Wednesday 7 October closes unless marked. "1d" is the change against Tuesday's close, corrected to the AP tabulation where it differs from the figure we carried.

Wednesday 7 October: cross-asset change on the session

Percent change against Tuesday's close. Gold and bitcoin are derived against our last published marks. Excluded: WTI and Brent (no verified Wednesday settle), the Stoxx 600 (close not obtained), the SMI and TAIEX (sources conflict) and the STI (prior does not reconcile). Hover over a bar for the exact value.

Up on the sessionDown on the session

Equities	Close	1d	Note
S&P 500	7,801.77	−0.22%	⭐ Second consecutive close above 7,800; V028 closes. Corroborated: TheStreet 7,801.77 (16:03 ET) and investingLive 7,801.73. Settled SPY −0.25% scales to ≈7,799.6 (derived; not a close). AP tabulation for Wednesday not posted; Tuesday's 7,818.93 is now AP-verified
Nasdaq Composite · Nasdaq-100	27,538.69 · 31,160.08	−0.22% · −0.21%	Composite corroborated (two reports); −61.10 computed. NDX single source. QQQ −0.25%
Dow Jones	51,179.87	−0.66%	TheStreet; ties to AP's 51,521.28. investingLive has 51,184.13, whose change does not tie. DIA −0.61%
Russell 2000 · VIX	2,793.36 · ≈15.08	−1.31% · ≈+0.5%	Russell −36.94 against AP's corrected 2,830.30. IWM −1.18%. VIX from Cboe's page with an ambiguous stamp
Stoxx 600 · Euro Stoxx 50	— · 6,184	≈−0.4 to −0.6% · −1.40%	Stoxx 600 close not obtained (intraday range only). ES50 from Newsquawk's closing line; a CFD shows 6,240
DAX · CAC 40	25,091 · 7,769	−1.41% · −1.22%	Both tie to carried priors. CAC lowest close since March
FTSE 100	10,459	−0.79%	⚠ Against Newsquawk's 6 Oct close of 10,542. Our carried 10,517.00 does not reconcile (see §13); against it the move would be −0.55%
FTSE MIB · IBEX · SMI	49,972 · 19,118 · 13,808	−2.51% · −1.68% · +0.14%?	MIB and IBEX tie. SMI: Newsquawk +0.14% against a CFD at −0.13%; unresolved
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX	70,035.71 · 4,154.11	−0.92% · −0.70%	−648.27 ties to the exchange's 70,683.98. TOPIX single source. Disco −6.3%
Hang Seng · HS Tech	≈24,130.5 · —	−0.62% · ≈−0.7%	Prior resolved at 24,280.56; level derived (one vendor's text says −145). Turnover ≈HK$94.7bn
KOSPI · TAIEX	6,803.90 · ≈49,711–49,806	−1.98% · ≈−0.2%	KOSPI verified (ties to 6,941.39); foreigners net −₩2.59tn. TAIEX two vendor levels conflict
Sensex · Nifty 50	72,638.70 · 22,603.05	−0.59% · −0.76%	⚠ The Sensex change implies a prior of 73,067.81, 124 points above our carried 72,943.91; Nifty ties. RBI hiked
S&P/ASX 200 · SPI Dec	8,727.7 · —	−0.09% · —	Three sources agree on −8 points; that implies a 6 Oct close of ≈8,735.7, not the 8,733.30 we carried (see §13). SPI not obtained
STI · NZX 50	5,608.44 · —	— · —	STI single CFD source and its implied prior (5,701.54) does not match our carried 5,667.05; change withheld. NZX not obtained

Rates & credit	Level	1d	Note
UST par, 6 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y)	4.79 · 5.03 · 5.27 · 5.64%	−5 · −3 · −4 · −2bp	⭐ Verified against the Treasury's own page. 5s30s 61bp, 2s10s 48bp. Wednesday's vendor ≈62bp estimate was 1bp high
UST vendor, 7 Oct (2y · 10y · 30y)	≈4.77 · ≈5.27 · ≈5.66%	≈−2 · ≈0 · ≈+2bp	Late-session prints from two wraps; changes against par carry ±1–2bp of basis. Intraday highs 10y ≈5.36%, 30y ≈5.73%, both highs since 2002 (press). 5s30s ≈63bp (derived, with 5y ≈5.03% at 14:06 ET)
10-year auction ($39bn reopening)	5.300%	1.7bp through	When-issued 5.317% (single source); bid-to-cover 2.77 (prior 2.71). Indirects 80.3%, dealers 2.5% (single source; unusually low takedown)
Gilt 10y · 30y	5.44% · 5.98%	+4 · +6bp	Vendor. The 30-year is 2bp below 6%
Bund · OAT · BTP · Spain 10y	3.47 · 4.89 · 4.64 · 4.15%	−2 · +14 · +8 · +5bp	Vendor legs; changes recomputed from 6 Oct levels. Weak 2033 Bund auction (1.42×)
OAT–Bund	127.4bp (6 Oct, dedicated) · ≈142bp (7 Oct, TE legs)	−16.0 · ≈+15	⭐ The dedicated series now shows 5 Oct 143.4 and 6 Oct 127.4. It is V025's mark. The 7 Oct row is not posted; the TE-legs reading is a different benchmark and is not spliced
JGB 2y · 10y · 30y	1.93 · 3.10 · 4.22%	0 · −1 · −2bp	Vendor. 30-year auction today 14:35 AEDT (3 Sep: 4.100%, 3.79× cover)
ACGB 10y · 3y · 30y	5.41% · 4.91–4.94% · 5.89%	+6 · −1 to +5 · +5bp	10y corroborated; it resolves yesterday's conflict (6 Oct close 5.35%). The 30-year is the highest since the benchmark launched in 2016 (single source). AU–US 10y ≈+14bp (derived)
Canada 10y · Swiss 10y	3.93% (6 Oct) · 0.53%	— · +2bp	Canada 7 Oct close not obtained
US IG · HY OAS (6 Oct)	83 · 303bp	−1 · −9bp	⭐ Verified on FRED. HY back below 310
US CCC OAS (6 Oct)	1,214bp	+3bp	⭐ Verified; 5 Oct was 1,211. 1bp below the 1 Oct series high (1,215). CCC/IG 14.6× (same-day). Quality is splitting: HY tighter, CCC wider

FX	Level	1d	Basis	Note
DXY	102.24	+0.37%	near-close vendor	Highest since March 2025 on the vendor's page; held above 102 after the minutes
EUR/USD	1.1172	−0.80%	near-close vendor	The RBA 4pm cross implies 1.1233 at Sydney's close, so most of the fall came in European hours
USD/JPY · GBP/USD	158.37 · 1.3219	+0.15% · —	vendor	USD/JPY range 157.85–158.51 (stamp lacks a time zone). Our carried GBP prior (1.3216) conflicts with a vendor's 1.3270, so no change is shown
AUD/USD · NZD/USD	0.6970 · 0.5609	0.00% · −0.28%	RBA 4pm · vendor	⭐ RBA fix unchanged at 0.6970; the NY close was 0.6969. NZD near an 11-month low
AUD/NZD	1.2433	−0.14%	RBA 4pm table	⭐ Verified. The NY-close legs give 1.2425 (derived). V023 is 183 pips above its exit
USD/CAD · USD/CHF	1.4254 · 0.8329	+0.30% · +0.09%	vendor	Changes recomputed from the vendor's 6 Oct levels
USD/BRL · USD/MXN · USD/INR	5.0019 · 17.97 · 96.57–97.03	+0.36% · 0.0% · —	vendor · onshore	INR: 96.57 onshore after the RBI (Business Standard) against 97.03 on a vendor; unresolved
USD/CNY · USD/KRW	6.7035 · 1,337.6	— · —	holiday-thin · vendor	First CNY fix since 30 Sep at 12:15 AEDT today. KRW 1,340.4 at the 15:30 KST close

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	Note
Brent DECEMBER (LCOZ6)	$100.58 (6 Oct settle) · ≈$100.3–101.0 (7 Oct)	+0.26% (6 Oct)	⭐ 6 Oct settle corroborated (EnergyNow "Dec 2026 contract settlement" and the exchange-history row); it replaces the ≈$100.68 vendor print we carried. ⚠ Wednesday's settle not found: three vendors span $100.30–101.01. Asian-hours high ≈$101.65
WTI NOVEMBER	$89.44 (6 Oct settle) · ≈$88.3–88.5 (7 Oct)	≈−1.1% (7 Oct)	6 Oct settle corroborated, resolving yesterday's three-way conflict. Wednesday post-settle prints from three vendors; one stale row at $89.65 rejected. Brent–WTI ≈$12
EIA weekly (to 2 Oct)	Crude −3.19m · gasoline +0.38m · distillates −0.04m	cons +1.7 · −1.7 · −2.1m	Crude bullish, products bearish. Cushing +0.44m; refinery runs +223k b/d
Henry Hub · TTF	$3.18–3.21 · ≈€77.1	≈+2.5% · ≈+1.8%	HH corroborated by three vendors; TTF single vendor
Gold (spot)	$4,110.50	−1.61%	Kitco bid at 16:35 ET; range $4,065.70–4,171.00. Kitco's own change (−1.27%) uses a different prior; −1.61% is derived against our $4,177.80 mark
Silver · Platinum	$59.66 · $1,629	−3.1% · −4.0%	Kitco, 15:03 and 14:28 ET; derived against our marks. Gold/silver ratio 68.9
Copper LME cash / 3M · COMEX	$14,505 / $14,434 (6 Oct) · ≈$6.59/lb	+$75 / +$68	Westmetall settlements; backwardation $71/t. Stocks 242,975t. COMEX is a CFD print
Aluminium LME cash	$3,134.50 (6 Oct)	+$27.50	Stocks 238,875t
Iron ore 62%	≈$91.1–91.2/t	≈−0.2%	Two vendor reads (ABC 16:35 AEDT; TE). Dalian reopens today; no SGX print obtained
Bitcoin	≈$83,300	≈−2.6%	CoinGecko ≈20:30 UTC (24h range $82,823–85,659); CoinDesk $83,198 at 14:16 UTC. Change derived against $85,560
ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB	$2,563 · $116 · $1.43 · $772	24h ≈−5% · −4% · −5% · −1%	Total market cap $2.929tn (−2.9%); BTC dominance 57.2%
Spot ETF flows (6 Oct)	BTC +$118.8m · ETH −$201.9m	verified	IBIT +$122.0m. All of ETH's outflow was ETHA; a fourth straight outflow day. 7 Oct rows are placeholders, not zeros
Crypto derivatives	OI BTC $28.1bn · ETH $18.4bn	funding +0.0045% / +0.0049%	Per asset, no timestamp. 24h liquidations BTC $90m, ETH $110m; CoinDesk puts the market-wide total at $547m

Conventions: 1d is against Tuesday 6 October's close. US equity priors are AP's (S&P 7,818.93, Russell 2,830.30). Wednesday's Treasury levels are vendor; the 6 October row is official par, compared with the 5 October par row. FX is a near-close vendor print unless marked RBA 4pm. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value, a greyed level is unresolved, and "—" means not obtained or withheld; §13 says which.

What is driving markets

Running themes, updated rather than rewritten. One theme resolves today.

1. The long end is priced off supply and term premium, and the official curve confirms it

Wednesday was the theme in one session. In the New York morning the 10-year traded about 5.36% and the 30-year about 5.73%, highs since 2002, with gilts and OATs selling off at the same time. Then the 10-year auction found demand at those levels: 5.300%, 1.7bp through when-issued, 2.77× covered. Yields ended close to where they started (10-year about 5.27%, 30-year about 5.66% on vendor quotes). Our reading is that the term premium is now finding a clearing level rather than gapping, but the clearing level is set by the price at which buyers turn up, which is exactly the regime's claim. This is an inference from one auction. The official curve for 6 October has 5s30s at 61bp: the 2-year fell 5bp and the 30-year only 2bp, so the curve steepened again on a day the policy path softened. Abroad, the 30-year gilt is 2bp below 6% and the ACGB 30-year closed at its highest since 2016.

So whatV030 is marked at 61bp on official par, 11bp above its stop. The 30-year's intraday 5.73% touched the 5.70% upgrade leg but only an official close counts, and the vendor close (≈5.66%) is below it. A strong 10-year means the main risk for the $22bn 30-year (04:00 Fri AEDT) is another stop-through and a bull flattener. The JGB 30-year at 14:35 today comes first.

2. Equities: the hedge is stopped out on a close that barely held (resolves today)

V028's rule was two consecutive closes above 7,800. Tuesday was 7,818.93 and Wednesday 7,801.77, so it is closed wrong. The margin was under two points and settled SPY implies about 7,799.6. That is the kind of case the pre-commitment exists for: the cash close governs, and an ETF derivation is a check, not a substitute. The internals were weaker than the index. The Russell 2000 fell 1.31%, more than two-thirds of issues fell, and on 6 October only 50.2% of S&P members were above their 200-day with new lows outnumbering highs 165 to 88. The equal-weight S&P is more than 5% below its record. Morgan Stanley's Wilson sees a 5–10% drawdown if bond volatility spreads to equities (2 October). Against that, hedging is cheap: SKEW is at the 23rd percentile of its one-year range (141.2) and VIX/VIX3M is 0.851, in contango for 126 sessions.

So whatThis running theme closes with V028. The breadth argument was right about the internals and wrong about the index, which is what the view's rule measured. We do not re-open a hedge today. A replacement needs a price signal from the internals, such as a Russell close below its 6 October low with the S&P below 7,750, not another breadth reading. The 50/100/200-day cluster at 7,687–7,720 is the level that would turn the breadth story into an index story.

3. Australia: the hike landed on confidence; the long end is now pricing more of it

The ACGB curve did the moving on Wednesday. The 10-year rose 6bp to 5.41% and the 30-year to 5.89%, a record for that benchmark, while the US 10-year was about unchanged, so the AU–US 10-year spread is about +14bp. November RBA pricing rose to 22.0% (tracker stamped 7 October) from 17.1%, and December to about 49%. The bank split is now clear: Westpac and ANZ forecast a November hike to 4.85%, CBA calls it "finely balanced" and NAB has a hold with upside risk. The demand side keeps weakening. The Ai Group industry index fell to about −25 (two figures, −25.5 and −24.2), with new orders around −36. Home values fell 1.1% in September, a sixth monthly fall (Cotality), and big-four variable rates rise 25bp tomorrow. The ASX shrugged it off: −0.09%, with banks down and healthcare and REITs up.

So whatA market moving toward the hawkish banks while housing and business surveys weaken leaves the RBA minutes (Tue 13 Oct 11:30) and the September labour force (Thu 15 Oct) to decide which signal leads before the Q3 CPI on 28 October. V006 is positioned for either outcome. Today's Melbourne Institute inflation expectations (prior 4.9%) is the first test.

4. Europe: the spread's good day lasted one session

Tuesday's relief on RN's alternative budget was half reversed on Wednesday. OATs sold off about 14bp to 4.89%, and the spread on vendor legs went from about 127bp to about 142bp. The catalysts were ECB and supply related. Moulin said ECB intervention is not needed "as of now", which the market read as the absence of a backstop, and the WSJ reported that France may issue more at the short end, which the finance ministry denied. A weak Bund auction did not help Bunds much, and the pain moved into bank equity (SocGen −5%, BNP −3.9%, Italian banks down about 4%) and the euro (−0.8%). The ECB speakers (Lane, Rehn on 6 October; Dolenc and Santos Pereira on 7 October) are leaning on higher long rates as a reason not to hike in October; pricing has about 10% for October and about 84% by December (tracker, 6 October). The dedicated spread series has now caught up with Tuesday's compression: 143.4bp on 5 October and 127.4bp on 6 October.

So whatV025 is marked at 127.4bp, 33bp in the money and 47bp above its exit. Wednesday's re-widening on a different benchmark suggests the 6 October mark is the low of this swing, but that is an inference until the dedicated series posts 7 October. The ECB accounts tonight (22:30 AEDT) are the next read on whether the Governing Council discussed spreads; Ecofin is tomorrow. Conviction stays at Med.

5. Oil: a bullish draw, a stronger dollar, and a flat price

The EIA's 3.19m-barrel crude draw against an expected 1.7m build was the largest in five weeks, but products went the other way (gasoline +0.38m, distillates −0.04m against expected draws of about 2m each), and WTI ended about 1.1% lower as the dollar rose. Brent has spent three sessions within about $1 of $100.5. Our reading is that the market is balancing a tight crude picture against weaker product demand, a G7/IEA release of 100m barrels whose final decision may slip to 14–15 October, and a Saudi price cut (November Arab Light to Asia at a six-year low). Physical risk has not gone away: the On Peace tanker was hit off Oman, nine attacks have been logged in the strait this month, VLCC rates are reported at a record of about $1.3m a day (single source), and Tropical Storm Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico. The flow picture is still disputed: estimates for Hormuz range from about 3.7m to 16.4m b/d by provider, and Kpler's latest is 13.1m b/d, about 80% of pre-war, for the week to about 27 September.

So whatV024 is marked on a settle for the first time this week: $100.58 for 6 October. The re-own band ($86.53–89.53) is far away. On the EIA data, products, not crude, are where demand is weakening, which argues against adding flat-price length. OPEC+ meets next on 1 November.

Central bank watch

Where each bank stands, what is priced, and the next date in Sydney time that can move it. The minutes lead.

Fed funds pricing: implied probabilities by meeting, now and a week ago

Current target range 3.75–4.00%. From the Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, timestamp quoted verbatim: "Updated: Oct 07, 2026 03:15PM EDT". This is after the minutes but before the close; the settled post-17:05 ET read had not posted at filing. The "week ago" rows are the page's own previous-week column.

3.75–4.00% (hold)4.00–4.25% (+25bp)4.25–4.50% (+50bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEDT)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.75–4.00%	+25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 (minutes out 7 Oct)	Thu 29 Oct 05:00 (meeting 27–28 Oct) · blackout from Sat 17 Oct	October hike 18.4% (15:15 ET), from 21.8% the previous day and 37.9% a week ago. December: 66.1% one hike, 13.9% two, so 80.0% for at least one. Kalshi 16.5¢, Polymarket 15.5¢	Hawkish, December
RBA	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30	22.0% hike single-step (23.6% cumulative), tracker stamped 7 Oct, from 17.1%; Dec cumulative 49.1%; Feb 86.8%. A vendor has 24.3%. Westpac and ANZ forecast a November hike; CBA and NAB hold	Tightening bias
ECB	DFR 2.50%	+25bp 10 Sep	Fri 30 Oct 00:15 (decision Thu 29 Oct 14:15 CET; resolved on ecb.europa.eu) · accounts tonight 22:30	October hike about 10%; December cumulative 84.4%; about 72bp over nine meetings (tracker, 6 Oct)	December over October
BoE	3.75%	Held 17 Sep, 6–3	Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR	86.5% hike; about 101bp over nine meetings (tracker, 6 Oct). Bailey, Greene and Pill speak tonight	Hawkish
BoJ	1.25%	+25bp 18 Sep, 7–2	Fri 30 Oct + Outlook Report (meeting 29–30)	Unresolved. Yesterday's about 25% (two secondary sources) is not refreshed; the only tracker found is on our discard list. Sato favours gradual hikes in stages	Gradual; Dec favoured
RBNZ	2.75%	+25bp Sep	Wed 28 Oct 12:00	About 58% for a 25bp hike (vendor; no OIS source)	Removing stimulus
RBI	5.50%	+25bp 7 Oct, 6–0; stance to "calibrated tightening"	December (date unverified)	First hike since Feb 2023. SDF 5.25%, MSF 5.75%. Malhotra: near-term cuts "off the table". SBI Research sees 6%	Hiking
PBoC	LPR 3.00 / 3.50%	Unchanged 16 months	First fix since 30 Sep today 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct 12:15	No policy move found during the holiday	On hold
NBP · BCRP · NBR	3.75% · 4.25% · 6.50%	Holds expected	Poland and Peru outcomes not found · Romania tonight	Holds expected; no outcomes obtained	Holds expected
BoC · SNB	2.25% · 0.00%	Held 2 Sep · held Sep	BoC Thu 29 Oct 00:45 · SNB Thu 10 Dec 19:30	Holds expected. Canada labour force Fri 23:30	On hold
Riksbank · Norges	1.75% · 4.50%	Held 24 Sep · +25bp 24 Sep	Wed 4 Nov 18:30 · Thu 5 Nov 20:00	Riksbank signals hikes; Norges "prepared to tighten further" (vendor)	Hawkish · hawkish
BoK · BI · CBRT	3.00% · 5.75% · 37.00%	BoK +25bp Aug	BoK Thu 22 Oct · BI 21 Oct · CBRT 22 Oct	Not refreshed	Hawkish · hold · hold
Banxico · BCB	6.50% · 13.75%	Brazil −25bp 16 Sep	Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 · Banxico minutes today · Copom date unverified	BRL 5.00 after a 17-month high; runoff 25 Oct	Easing

Fed: what the minutes said. The vote was 12–0 with no dissent, and all participants backed the September hike. "Most participants" judged that a further increase "would likely be appropriate by year end"; "many" saw a higher path as prudent "on risk-management grounds", and "a number" saw it as necessary on their modal outlook. Officials will approach each meeting "with an open mind". On inflation the Committee has "not seen sufficient progress" and sees risks "skewed to the upside"; staff estimated August PCE at 3.8% and core at 3.4%. Several officials flagged AI investment pulling demand ahead of supply. On the balance sheet, reserve-management purchases are paused and not on a preset course, and "a few" urged planning for Treasury-market stress tools while limiting the Fed's footprint. Our read: the minutes contain no October signal, and October pricing fell rather than rose. The risk to that read is the September CPI on Wed 14 Oct, 23:30 AEDT, with one-year household inflation expectations already at 3.9%. Waller speaks at 19:30 AEDT tonight and Musalem at 04:40 Friday.

RBA: the market moved toward the banks. November pricing rose about five points in a session on no RBA communication, as the long end sold off. Westpac's case (inflation, not sentiment, sets the path) is being priced at the margin. The minutes on Tuesday are the first chance for the Board to say whether the post-hike sentiment collapse changes its assessment.

RBI: the hike was delivered and the stance hardened. The 6–0 vote and the shift to "calibrated tightening" go further than a one-off move, and the governor said near-term cuts are "off the table". The rupee weakened slightly on the day; the effect on the INR has to be judged against intervention.

Regional briefs

United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Japan, China and Hong Kong, emerging Asia and LatAm.

United States

Hawkish minutes, strong demand for duration, weak internals. The S&P held 7,800 by under two points while the Russell 2000 fell 1.31%. The 10-year auction was the strongest of the week (1.7bp stop-through), after the 3-year's weak indirect demand on Tuesday. New York Fed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest since 2023, and the MBA's 30-year mortgage rate to 7.49%. The minutes put another hike by year-end in most officials' baseline. Fiscal: a continuing resolution funds the government to 11 December (corroborated this morning), so there is no October cliff. Political commentary links the bond sell-off to proposed $5,000 household checks, defence spending and AI capex; that is commentary, not evidence. Prediction markets give Democrats 92% for the House and 65% for the Senate on 3 November. Q3 earnings start with the banks on Tue 13 Oct; FactSet has Q3 EPS growth at +29.5% with a record 72 positive guidance revisions.

Euro area

France's bonds, Europe's banks. The OAT 10-year rose about 14bp to 4.89% and the CAC fell 1.22% to its lowest close since March. Banks were the worst sector in the region, with French and Italian lenders down about 4–5%; the FTSE MIB fell 2.51%. PM Lecornu's 2027 budget targets a 5.0% deficit and began committee examination on 7 October; RN's line remains that it prefers an "imperfect but operational" budget but will not accept tax rises. Moulin's comment that no ECB intervention is needed "as of now" was read as no backstop. Germany's industrial production rose 2.0% in August, against a 0.5% consensus, after Tuesday's 10.6% fall in factory orders; a 2033 Bund auction drew only 1.42× cover. The EU is weighing limits on Chinese hybrid imports, which lifted VW and Stellantis. Eurogroup meets today, Ecofin tomorrow.

United Kingdom

The 30-year gilt is 2bp from 6%. Gilts rose about 4bp at 10 years (5.44%) and 6bp at 30 years (5.98%); the FTSE 100 fell 0.79% to 10,459 on banks (HSBC −3.7%, Barclays −3.4%), and Pennon fell as much as 20% on a £550m rights issue. Pricing has 86.5% on a 5 November hike, after Mann's "inflation has become embedded" on Tuesday. Chancellor Healey's Budget is Wed 28 Oct; estimates of the remaining fiscal headroom conflict (£23.6bn and £9.9bn on different bases), and higher yields erode either. Tonight: the BoE Credit Conditions Survey and speeches by Greene, Pill and Bailey (23:15 AEDT). Monthly GDP for August is Thu 15 Oct.

Japan

Chip selling ended a two-day rally. The Nikkei fell 0.92% to 70,035.71, with Disco −6.3%, Kioxia −4.5% and Tokyo Electron −2.4%; about 62% of Prime stocks fell. TOPIX lost 0.70% (single source). JGBs were steady: 10-year 3.10%, 30-year 4.22%, ahead of today's 30-year auction (14:35 AEDT; the September auction cleared at 4.100% with 3.79× cover). Citi published a note headlined "JGBs becoming appealing as yields near peak" (headline only). Board member Sato, a September dissenter, favours gradual multi-step hikes. August real wages rose 1.5% y/y. PM Takaichi's food consumption-tax cut is to be funded without new bonds, according to one vendor. USD/JPY 158.37.

China & Hong Kong

The mainland reopens today after eight sessions shut. Hong Kong fell about 0.62% to about 24,130 on Wednesday, with Alibaba −2.6% and Tencent −1.8%, on turnover below HK$100bn for a third session. Stock Connect resumes today. Golden Week data so far are partial: early reports describe steady travel and softer spending per traveller, and Citi called early holiday consumption "underwhelming" (secondary source); no official full-holiday total has been published. No PBoC action was found during the break; the last policy package (mortgage subsidies and expanded central-bank funding) was announced on 30 September. China rejected the EU's request to limit hybrid exports. The first CNY fix since 30 September is at 12:15 AEDT; onshore CNY was 6.7035 in thin trade. September trade data are due around 13 October and CPI/PPI on 14 October.

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Korea sold chips; India hiked. The KOSPI fell 1.98% to 6,803.90 on ₩2.59tn of foreign selling; SK hynix −2.8%, Samsung −1.3%. Samsung's preliminary Q3 results are due today (a vendor cites expectations of a record operating profit of about ₩108tn; unverified), and Korea shuts tomorrow for Hangul Day. The TAIEX fell about 0.2% from Tuesday's record (two vendor levels conflict). The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50%, unanimously, and the Nifty fell 0.76%; Titan fell 4% on a weak business update. Singapore's STI fell sharply on one CFD source, but that source's prior does not match ours, so no figure is published. Brazil: USD/BRL about 5.00 ahead of the 25 October runoff. Banxico publishes minutes today.

Australia & New Zealand

A record long-bond yield, a flat ASX, and an RBA that the market now prices at about one in five for November.

The RBA: pricing moved toward the hawks

The cash rate is 4.60%. The tracker stamped 7 October has 22.0% for a 3 November hike (23.6% cumulative), up from 17.1% a day earlier, 49.1% by December and 86.8% by February: about 22bp over three meetings. A vendor shows 24.3%. Bank calls for 3 November: Westpac and ANZ a hike to 4.85%; CBA a hold ("finely balanced"); NAB a hold with upside risk. The RBA's diary has no speaker this week. Coming up: the September minutes on Tue 13 Oct at 11:30, the Annual Report on 15 October, Kent on 19 October and Hauser on 21 October, then the decision and SMP on 3 November.

Data. ANZ-Indeed job ads rose 2.2% in September (+12.9% y/y), a fifth straight monthly gain, which fits a labour market that has not yet cracked. The Ai Group industry index fell about 21 points to about −25 (−25.5 and −24.2 on two sources) with new orders near −36. Building approvals fell 6.1% in August (single source, release date unclear). Q2 dwelling commencements rose 7% to 52,201. Today: Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations (11:00; prior 4.9%).

Markets: a flat index on a record long-bond yield

Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,727.7, down 8 points (−0.09%), after a range of +0.21% to −0.37%. Six sectors rose and five fell: healthcare +1.1%, real estate +0.8%, consumer discretionary +0.5% and energy +0.5%, against financials −0.6% (CBA −1.3%, Westpac −1.2%, NAB −0.8%) and materials −0.2% (BHP about −0.7% after agreeing to sell its Kambalda nickel assets to Gold Fields). Arena REIT rose 13.0%, and uranium names rallied on Google's 20-year nuclear power deal (Bannerman +8.6%, Deep Yellow +4.6%). Advancer and decliner counts were not published. The 6 October close is in question: three sources put Wednesday's fall at 8 points, which implies 8,735.7, not the 8,733.30 we published (see §13). No timestamped SPI quote was found this morning.

Rates. The ACGB 10-year rose 6bp to 5.41%, resolving yesterday's conflict (Tuesday closed at 5.35%), and the 30-year closed 5.89%, the highest since the benchmark launched in 2016. The 3-year is 4.94% on one source and 4.91% on another. With the US 10-year about 5.27%, the Australian premium is about +14bp.

Currency. The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.6970 (unchanged), AUD/NZD 1.2433 (−0.14%), AUD/JPY 110.42, AUD/EUR 0.6205, TWI 64.8. All verified. The AUD was 0.6969 at the US close, holding up while the euro fell 0.8% against the dollar.

Housing and the China link

Pass-through lands tomorrow. All four majors raise variable home-loan rates by the full 25bp from Friday 9 October, and no big-four variable rate will be below 6%. Cotality's index fell 1.1% in September, a sixth straight monthly fall, leaving values flat over a year and 5.2% below the March peak (Sydney −1.4% m/m, −7.0% y/y; Melbourne −0.7%; Brisbane −1.5%; only Darwin rose). The first auction weekend after the rate change is 10–11 October. China. Iron ore is about $91/t on vendor reads, with Dalian reopening today after a week of global moves. Copper's LME cash price rose to $14,505 on 6 October. A weak Golden Week tally would hit the materials leg of the index.

New Zealand

NZD/USD fell 0.28% to 0.5609, near an 11-month low, after six straight weekly declines (vendor). The RBNZ meets on Wed 28 Oct, with about 58% priced for a 25bp hike to 3.00% (vendor, no OIS source) and a December hike more than fully priced. NZIER's Q3 survey showed business confidence up sharply (net +40% to +43% depending on the source). The NZX 50's Tuesday and Wednesday closes were not obtained. A general election is due in November. On the RBA table AUD/NZD slipped to 1.2433, still 1.0% above V023's entry.

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior / context	Next release (AEDT)
Cash rate	4.60%	+25bp 29 Sep, unanimous	Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 · 22.0% priced
Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct)	80.4 (−4.7%)	84.4; post-decision cohort 67.2	November survey
MI consumer inflation expectations (Oct)	—	Prior 4.9%; vendor forecast 5.0%	Today 11:00
ANZ-Indeed job ads (Sep)	+2.2% m/m	+12.9% y/y; fifth straight rise	Corroborated (two sources)
Ai Group industry index (Sep)	−25.5 / −24.2	≈−21 points; new orders ≈−36	Two sources conflict
Cotality home values (Sep)	−1.1% m/m	Sixth fall; −5.2% from March peak	October: 2 Nov
Mortgage pass-through	+25bp, all four majors	No big-four variable rate below 6%	Effective Fri 9 Oct
NAB business survey (Sep)	—	Confidence prior −8	Tue 13 Oct 11:30
Labour force (Sep)	—	Prior +39.5k, 4.6%	Thu 15 Oct 11:30
Quarterly CPI (Q3)	—	V006's resolution date	Wed 28 Oct 11:30
ACGB 10y · 30y · AU–US 10y	5.41% · 5.89% · ≈+14bp	5.35% · 5.84% · +7 to +13bp	30-year at its highest since the 2016 launch

House views & tactical framework

Six open, one closed, none opened. V028 is stopped out on its pre-committed rule and scored wrong.

V028 closed WRONG. The rule written on 28 September was two consecutive S&P closes above 7,800. Tuesday closed 7,818.93 (AP-verified) and Wednesday 7,801.77 (two close reports agree within 0.04 points). The reference was 7,743.41, so the index finished 0.75% against the view. The margin was under two points and settled SPY scales to just below 7,800, but the rule is defined on the cash close, and the cash close is above. This is the seventh consecutive close to fire on a condition written in advance. If the AP tabulation prints Wednesday below 7,800, the next edition will reverse the closure and say so. Nothing else fired. V030 and V023 are marked on their own series, V025 has caught up with Tuesday's compression, and V017 has a same-day CCC ratio for the first time since 2 October. We do not open a replacement hedge (see Theme 2).

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
US 5s30s (V030)	Steepener	Low	1–3 mo	61bp on official par (6 Oct), against a 57bp entry; about 63bp on Wednesday's vendor levels. The 2-year fell 5bp on 6 October and the 30-year 2bp, so the curve steepened as the policy path softened. On Wednesday the 30-year touched 5.73% intraday before a strong 10-year auction pulled it back to about 5.66%. The minutes keep a December hike in most officials' baseline, which pins the front end; the long end is trading supply	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (11bp away). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par; an intraday print does not count. ⚠ $22bn 30-year auction Fri 04:00 AEDT: a stop-through and bull flattener is the risk
OAT–Bund (V025)	Widener	Med	1–3 mo	Marked: 127.4bp on 6 October on the dedicated series, +33bp from a ≈94bp entry (5 Oct 143.4bp; 2 Oct 146.9bp, the series' one-year high). Tuesday's compression has now reached the view's own series. On Wednesday the spread re-widened to about 142bp on vendor legs (OATs +14bp) after Moulin ruled out ECB intervention "as of now"; that is a different benchmark and is not spliced. The structural case is unchanged: a minority government, a 5.0% deficit target investors doubt, a Spanish election on 29 November	UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (47bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct. Conviction held at Med: one session's compression and one session's re-widening cancel. ECB accounts tonight 22:30; Ecofin Fri. A second RN signal of budget support is still the main threat
Credit
US credit (V017)	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	Med	1–3 mo	6 October: IG 83bp (−1), HY 303bp (−9), CCC 1,214bp (+3), all verified on FRED. The first same-day ratio since 2 October: CCC/IG 14.6×. HY tightened while CCC widened to 1bp below its series high, so the view's preferred split (underweight the lowest quality, own short IG) is working even on a day the HY index rallied. CCC has widened 86bp since 25 September. September HY issuance was $38.5bn and Goldman says supply is overwhelming demand (28 Sep, secondary)	UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (164bp from the 6 Oct mark). Raising conviction would need HY wider alongside CCC, not just CCC
Equities
ASX 200 (V006)	Underweight tactically	Low	2–4 wk	+3.09% in favour: 8,727.7 against 9,005.9. November RBA pricing rose to 22% and the ACGB 30-year set a record, while the index fell only 0.09%. The rate leg strengthened; the household leg starts tomorrow with the pass-through, against a sixth straight fall in home values. Banks are the index's swing sector and fell 0.6–1.3%. Against it: job ads rose for a fifth month, and the index has not yet traded the demand shock	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (2.0% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct. The minutes (13 Oct) and labour force (15 Oct) come first
FX
AUD/NZD (V023)	Long	Low	1–2 mo	Marked: 1.2433 on the RBA 4pm table (7 Oct), +0.96% from ≈1.2315, down 18 pips on the day. The premise holds and is moving our way: RBA November pricing rose to 22% while the RBNZ's priced path was unchanged, and the ACGB long end sold off harder than New Zealand's (inference; NZ yields not obtained). The NZD is near an 11-month low against the USD. V023 and V006 share an Australian driver, which we treat as correlation inside the book	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (183 pips away). The RBNZ (28 Oct) and the RBA minutes (13 Oct) are the two dates
Commodities
Brent (V024)	Residual call spread only — no new risk	Low	1–3 mo	December settled $100.58 on 6 October (corroborated), the first exchange settle this desk has had since Monday; Wednesday's settle is unverified at about $100.3–101.0. A bullish crude draw (−3.19m bbl) was offset by product builds and a stronger dollar. Saudi Arabia has said nothing on Rabigh, and no October Ras Tanura claim exists. Tanker attacks continue (nine in October) and freight is at records (single source)	PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53. Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms. The IEA stock-release decision (possibly 14–15 Oct) is the next supply input
Closed this edition
S&P 500 (V028)	Own downside convexity, not delta	Low	2–4 wk	CLOSED WRONG, 8 Oct. 7,743.41 → 7,801.77 (+0.75%). Two consecutive closes above 7,800 (7,818.93 and 7,801.77). The breadth evidence (Russell −1.31% on the day; 50.2% of members above the 200-day) was right about the internals and did not move the index	Closed on its pre-committed condition. Not re-argued. Reversed only if AP's Wednesday close is below 7,800

Book and scorecard. Six open and twenty-four closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls were right. That is a poor record and we publish it as it is. The closes are disciplined (seven in a row on written conditions), but too many views have been wrong on direction. The open book is now mostly in the money on its own marks: V030 +4bp, V025 +33bp, V006 +3.1%, V023 +1.0%.

Portfolio-level read. With V028 gone the book has no equity hedge. It is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit (V017) and tilted against Australian rate-sensitive equities and toward the AUD against the NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). Wednesday showed how these interact. A long-end sell-off that hits banks and the euro helps V025 and V017 and is neutral for V030 if the curve steepens. The risk the book does not cover is a bull flattener on a strong 30-year auction alongside an equity rally. We accept that exposure rather than open a hedge without a price signal.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

A midweek update. The CFTC block is unchanged until Saturday morning; everything else is re-fetched.

⚠ The CFTC data are dated Tuesday 29 September. The next report, covering Tuesday 6 October, is due Friday 9 October 15:30 ET (06:30 AEDT Saturday). This morning's re-read reproduces the carried legs; there is no sign of a publication pause.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC — positions as of Tue 29 September (unchanged)
CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs	−6,576,935	2y −1.17m · 5y −1.99m · 10y −2.04m	Ultra-10y −328,471 · bond −251,395 · ultra-bond −808,870. Asset managers long (10y +2.78m). Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove. Wednesday's 2.5% dealer takedown at the 10-year (single source) fits strong end-demand
E-mini S&P 500	LF −372,489 · AM +904,003	LF +3,085 on the week	Leveraged funds short into a record; the index made two closes above 7,800 regardless
FX — leveraged funds	EUR −39,265 · JPY −14,161 · AUD +60,592 · CAD −69,644	GBP +4,606 · NZD −1,066	Wednesday's 0.8% euro fall went with a consensus short. AUD: leveraged long, asset managers short (−73,199)
Gold · WTI · DXY — legacy non-commercial	+218,632 · +109,463 · +11,881	−7,221 · −31,643 · +1,551	Gold is still the most crowded long on the desk and fell 1.6% on Wednesday
Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted
ICI long-term funds (w/e 30 Sep)	−$1.97bn	domestic equity −$7.33bn · world +$2.67bn	Verified. Taxable bond +$4.14bn, municipal −$0.69bn. MMF assets $7.89tn (−$45.5bn, w/e 30 Sep)
BofA Flow Show (1 Oct, Hartnett)	Bull & Bear 8.8 (from 9.3)	still "sell" (>8.0)	Record municipal inflow $4.2bn (EPFR); long-dated bonds +$7.4bn; private clients 66.3% in equities (record) and 9.4% cash (record low). Call: buy "humiliation" in long Treasuries. Secondary summary
US spot crypto ETFs (Farside)	BTC +$118.8m · ETH −$201.9m	6 Oct	October to 5 Oct: BTC +$202.6m. ETH has had four straight outflow days, all of 6 October's from ETHA. Strategy holds 848,000 BTC (SEC 8-K)
Sentiment and volatility
VIX term structure (6 Oct)	VIX 15.01 · VIX3M 17.64	ratio 0.851	Contango, day 126. October future 17.46
CBOE SKEW (6 Oct)	141.2	23rd pct (1 yr)	Re-fetched, not carried (143.0 on 5 Oct). Downside protection is cheap, which matters now the book has no hedge
Put/call (5 Oct)	Equity 0.59 · total 0.83	9-day avg 0.83, 18th pct	The vendor labels this "extreme complacency"
Fear & Greed replica (6 Oct)	47, Neutral	42 on 5 Oct · 44 a week ago	Stock-price strength 17 and volume breadth 18, against safe-haven demand 91 and junk-bond demand 78
AAII (w/e 30 Sep)	Bulls 34.6 · Bears 46.5	spread −11.9	Next survey tonight (US Thursday)
BofA FMS (Sep)	Cash 3.9% · net 49% OW equities	net 48% UW bonds	Top tail risk: a disorderly rise in yields (33%). Most crowded: long semis (53%). October survey expected mid-month (date unconfirmed)
Breadth, technicals and valuation
% of S&P members above 200-day	50.2% (6 Oct)	45.7% on 2 Oct · long-run avg 65.3%	Improved on the record day, then the Russell fell 1.31% on Wednesday
New highs / lows (6 Oct)	88 / 165	McClellan −2.04	Lows still outnumber highs about 1.9 to 1 (3.6 to 1 on 5 Oct). Hindenburg inactive (3 of 4)
S&P moving averages (6 Oct)	20d 7,775.6 · 50d 7,720.1 · 200d 7,687.2	100d 7,708.1	The 50/100/200-day cluster at 7,687–7,720 is the support band
Forward P/E · Q3 EPS growth (FactSet, 2 Oct)	19.0× · +29.5%	5-yr avg 19.8×	Verified. Guidance 72 positive (a record since 2006), 44 negative. LSEG has Q3 at +30.6%. Banks report from Tue 13 Oct
Prediction markets	Fed Oct hike ≈16%	Kalshi 16.5¢ · Polymarket 15.5¢	House: Democrats 92%; Senate 65% (aggregator). The aggregator's page header and table dates conflict

The week ahead

Today and tomorrow in full, then next week and the sessions after. AEDT (UTC+11) first, with US Eastern alongside; AEDT = ET + 15h until 1 November.

Day	AEDT	ET	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Thursday 8 October — China reopens · JGB 30-year · ECB accounts
Thu	11:00	Wed 20:00	AU Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations (Oct)	5.0% (vendor)	4.9%	M
Thu	12:15 · 12:30	—	First CNY fix since 30 Sep · mainland China and Stock Connect reopen · Samsung Q3 preliminary results (day)			H
Thu	14:35	Wed 23:35	JP 30-year JGB auction, with the 30-year at 4.22%		4.100% · 3.79×	H
Thu	16:00 · 17:00	01:00 · 02:00	JP Economy Watchers (Sep) · DE trade balance (Aug)	46.7 · €19.0bn	46.4 · €21.3bn	L
Thu	19:30	04:30	US Fed Governor Waller, economic outlook (Istanbul)			M
Thu	19:30–00:00	04:30–09:00	UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey · Greene · Pill · Bailey (23:15) · Lombardelli (00:00 Fri) · Eurogroup · RO NBR decision · MX Banxico minutes		NBR 6.50%	M
Thu	22:30	07:30	EZ ECB accounts of the 9–10 September meeting			H
Thu	23:30	08:30	US initial · continuing jobless claims · PepsiCo Q3 (pre-market)	200k · 1,710k	197k · 1,701k	M
Thu	01:30 Fri	10:30	US EIA natural gas storage	79 bcf	64 bcf	L
Thu	04:00 Fri	13:00	US 30-year bond reopening, $22bn: the direct test of V030 · Musalem 04:40			H
Friday 9 October — pass-through day · Korea shut (Hangul Day)
Fri	open	—	AU big-four variable mortgage rates rise 25bp · Ecofin			H
Fri	10:30	Thu 19:30	JP household spending (Aug) y/y	−3.5%	−3.6%	L
Fri	19:00 · 21:15	04:00 · 06:15	IT industrial production · ECB Cipollone	0.0%	+0.7%	L
Fri	23:30	08:30	CA labour force (Sep), change · unemployment rate	+6.3k · 6.5%	−41.7k · 6.4%	M
Fri	00:30 · 01:00 Sat	09:30 · 10:00	ECB Schnabel · US UMich sentiment (Oct prelim) and 1-year inflation expectations · Delta Air Lines Q3	47.5–47.6 · 4.7% (vendor)	48.1 · 4.6%	H
Sat	06:30 · 07:00	Fri 15:30 · 16:00	CFTC Commitments of Traders (6 Oct positions) · Fed's Collins			M
Next week
Mon 12	—	—	US Columbus Day: bond market closed (SIFMA); equities open status not re-checked · Japan and Canada holidays · IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok, 12–18 Oct			M
Tue 13	11:30 · 22:00	Mon 20:30 · 07:00	RBA minutes · NAB business survey (Sep) · CN trade (tentative) · DE final CPI · US NFIB · JPMorgan Q3 (other banks unconfirmed)	NAB −9 (vendor)	NAB −8	H
Wed 14	12:30 · 23:30	Tue 21:30 · 08:30	CN CPI · PPI (Sep) · US CPI (September), BLS-confirmed date		CN 0.8% · 3.8% · US 3.4% y/y (core 2.4%, calendar)	H
Thu 15	05:00 · 11:30 · 17:00 · 23:30	Wed 14:00 · Wed 20:30 · 02:00 · 08:30	US Beige Book · AU labour force (Sep) · UK GDP (Aug) · US PPI, retail sales, Empire, Philly Fed · RBA Annual Report · buybacks reopen		AU +39.5k, 4.6% · US retail +1.2%	H
Fri 16 – Sat 17	20:00 Fri · 00:15 Sat	05:00 · 09:15	EZ final HICP (Sep) · US industrial production · Fed blackout begins Sat 17 Oct		HICP 3.8%, core 2.5%	M
The sessions after
Late Oct	—	—	Kent 19 Oct · PBoC LPR Tue 20 · BI 21 · Hauser 21 · BoK, CBRT 22 · Brazil runoff Sun 25 · RBNZ (12:00), UK Budget and AU Q3 CPI (11:30) Wed 28 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 · US ECI Fri 30 23:30			H
Nov–Jan	14:30 Tue 3	—	OPEC+ 1 Nov · RBA 3 Nov + SMP · US midterms 3 Nov · Riksbank 4 Nov · BoE 5 Nov (23:00 AEDT) · Norges 5 Nov · Banxico 6 Nov · Spain election 29 Nov · US funding expiry 11 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan			H

⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column is unreliable. Next week's consensus figures were not yet published. The US CPI "prior" is from a calendar and has not been checked against BLS. ECB times assume the vendor's UTC stamps. From 26 October Europe moves to CET (AEDT = CET + 10h); from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h). German ZEW and the G20 finance ministers' dates were not found.

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks. A probability is shown only where it is market-implied or attributable to a named source; otherwise the cell is blank.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Impact if realised	Cheapest expression / hedge
1	The long end breaks out on supply	US 30y Fri 04:00 AEDT · JGB 30y today 14:35 · gilt 30y at 5.98%	33% of FMS respondents name disorderly yields the top tail risk (Sep)	The 10-year printed 5.36% and the 30-year 5.73% intraday on Wednesday, highs since 2002. A tailed 30-year with an official close above 5.70% upgrades V030; a strong one flattens	V030; 30-year payer swaptions rather than outright duration
2	An unhedged book meets an equity drawdown	Breadth: Russell −1.31% Wed; 50/100/200-day cluster 7,687–7,720; banks report from 13 Oct	—	V028 is closed, so there is no equity hedge. MS's Wilson sees 5–10% if bond volatility spreads to equities (2 Oct)	Downside protection is cheap (SKEW 23rd pct, VIX/VIX3M 0.851); a put spread below 7,687 is the expression if the level breaks
3	US CPI revives October	Wed 14 Oct 23:30 AEDT; claims tonight; UMich Sat	Oct hike 18.4% (futures, 15:15 ET); Kalshi/Polymarket ≈16%	One-year household inflation expectations are at 3.9%, the highest since 2023, and the minutes say most officials expect a hike by year-end. A hot print pulls December into October	2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry
4	French stress moves into European banks	ECB accounts tonight 22:30; Ecofin Fri; budget committee stage	ECB Oct hike ≈10% (tracker)	OATs +14bp and French and Italian banks −4–5% on Wednesday after Moulin ruled out intervention "as of now". A durable widening helps V025; a backstop signal hurts it	V025 held at Med; bank equity puts are the second-order expression
5	Gulf infrastructure and shipping	Live: nine Hormuz attacks in October; Rabigh unconfirmed; IEA release decision possibly 14–15 Oct	—	A confirmed Rabigh or Ras Tanura hit moves product cracks before crude. VLCC rates are at a reported record. Hormuz flow estimates span 3.7–16.4m b/d by provider	Product-crack optionality; do not trade the flat price on a single claim
6	The RBA hikes into a demand shock	Pass-through Fri 9 Oct; minutes 13 Oct; labour force 15 Oct; CPI 28 Oct	RBA Nov 22.0% (tracker, 7 Oct); Westpac and ANZ forecast it	Sentiment's post-hike cohort is at early-1990s levels and home values have fallen six months running; the 30-year ACGB is at a record	V006; the AU 3-year as the cleaner rate expression
7	Credit splits further by quality	CCC at 1,214bp, 1bp from its series high; HY supply	—	HY tightened 9bp on 6 October while CCC widened. A CCC break above 1,215 with HY following would mark the stress spreading	V017; CDX HY protection rather than cash
8	China's reopening session disappoints	Today 12:30 AEDT; first fix 12:15	—	A week of global moves arrives at once: Asian chips sold, Brent near $100, the dollar at a 19-month high. Early Golden Week spending was called "underwhelming" (Citi, secondary)	A50 and HSI options over the open; AUD/CNH as the cross
9	The dollar keeps rising	DXY 102.24, highest since March 2025 (vendor)	—	Gold −1.6%, silver −3%, bitcoin −2.6% on Wednesday. Gold is the most crowded legacy long (+218,632)	Gold put spreads; no gold view open
10	Samsung and the chip trade	Samsung Q3 preliminary today; Korea shut Fri	—	The KOSPI fell 1.98% and the Nikkei 0.92% on chip selling. The FMS's most crowded trade is long semis (53%)	KOSPI or SOX downside into the print rather than after it
11	US midterms	Tue 3 Nov	Dem House 92% · Senate 65% (aggregator)	FMS respondents flag a Democratic sweep as a tail risk	Q4 collars
12	Brazil's runoff reprices EM carry	Sun 25 Oct	—	USD/BRL about 5.00 after a 17-month high in the real	BRL volatility over the runoff

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; view triggers in bold.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	7,801.77	7,775.6 (20d) · 7,720 (50d) · 7,687 (200d)	7,818.93 (record close) · 7,840.02 (intraday record)	V028 closed; the 7,687–7,720 cluster is the level that would make breadth an index story
UST 5s30s · 2s10s	61bp par (6 Oct) · ≈63bp vendor · 48bp	50 (V030 closes) · 57 (entry)	65 (V030 upgrades, with an official 30y close > 5.70%)	Official 7 Oct row ~09:00 AEDT
UST 30y · 10y · 2y	≈5.66% · ≈5.27% · ≈4.77% (vendor)	5.61 · 5.24 · 4.78 (1 Oct par)	5.70 (V030 upgrade leg) · 5.73 / 5.36 (intraday 7 Oct)	10-year auction cleared at 5.300%
OAT–Bund	127.4bp (6 Oct, dedicated) · ≈142bp (7 Oct, TE legs)	80 (V025 closes)	146.9 (series one-year high)	Series not spliced
Gilt 30y · JGB 30y	5.98% · 4.22%	5.90 · 4.10	6.00 · 4.25 (vendor all-time high)	JGB 30-year auction today
ACGB 10y · 30y · AU–US 10y	5.41% · 5.89% · ≈+14bp	5.35 · 5.30	5.45 · 5.89 (30y record)	The premium widened as the US 10-year held
DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY	102.24 · 1.1172 · 158.37	101.75 · 1.1161 (17-month low) · 157.85	102.50 · 1.1262 · 158.51 · 160	The euro is 11 pips above Monday's low
AUD/USD · AUD/NZD	0.6970 · 1.2433 (RBA)	0.6936 · 0.6900 · 1.2250 (V023 closes)	0.7000 · 1.2451 · 1.2500	The AUD held while the euro fell
Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov)	$100.58 · $89.44 (6 Oct settles)	$97.09 (6 Oct low) · $86.53–89.53 (V024 re-own) · WTI ≈$88.3	$101.65 (7 Oct Asian high) · $103.50	7 Oct settles not confirmed
Gold · Silver	$4,110.50 · $59.66	$4,065.70 (7 Oct low) · $4,000 · $59.00	$4,171 · $4,203.60 · $61.59	Gold fell as the DXY rose
S&P/ASX 200	8,727.7	8,686 · 8,614	8,736 · 8,900 (V006 closes) · 9,005.9	Flat on a record 30-year yield
Nikkei · KOSPI · Hang Seng	70,035.71 · 6,803.90 · ≈24,130	69,947 · 6,750 · 24,000	70,684 · 6,941 · 24,280–24,300	Hang Seng support and resistance from one vendor
IG / HY / CCC OAS	83 / 303 / 1,214bp (6 Oct)	CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 300	HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,215 (1 Oct, series high)	Same-day CCC/IG 14.6×
Bitcoin	≈$83,300	$82,823 (24h low) · $80,000	$85,659 · $86,000	About $547m of liquidations (CoinDesk)

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, what was rejected, and what could not be obtained.

How this edition was built

Six research desks ran in parallel from 06:05 AEDT, when the US cash session still had an hour to run (AEDT = EDT + 15h). Asia, Australia and Europe were drafted from stable closes; the US-close block was fetched last, between 07:30 and 07:50 AEDT. The AP tabulation for Wednesday had not posted (the mirror URL returned 404 and a search found nothing), so the S&P close rests on two independent post-close reports that agree within 0.04 points, with the settled SPY route as a check. AP's Tuesday tabulation did post and is used for every Wednesday change. The official Treasury par row for 7 October posts about 09:00 AEDT, so Wednesday's Treasury figures are vendor; the 6 October par row was read from the Treasury's own page. The Fed Rate Monitor's latest stamp at filing was 15:15 ET (after the minutes, before the close). Every figure was retrieved on 7–8 October 2026; nothing is recalled.

Corrections and updates to No. 023

(1) MATERIAL: Brent and WTI settles for 6 October. Brent December settled $100.58 (+$0.26), corroborated by a settlement report and the exchange-history row, not the ≈$100.68 vendor print No. 023 published. WTI November settled $89.44, resolving the $89.24–89.57 range.
(2) MATERIAL: the ASX 200's 6 October close is disputed. No. 023 published 8,733.30 (+46.90 on 8,686.40). Three sources agree Wednesday's close of 8,727.7 was down 8 points, which implies ≈8,735.7, and the ABC and a vendor quoted 8,736. Unresolved; V006's mark uses Wednesday's verified close, so it is unaffected.
(3) The AP tabulation confirms Tuesday's S&P record of 7,818.93, the Dow's 51,521.28 and the Nasdaq's 27,599.79. Its Russell 2000 close is 2,830.30 (−16.84), not 2,830.97 (−16.17).
(4) Tuesday's settled Fed read was 21.8% for an October hike (the monitor's previous-day column), not the 20.7% intraday snapshot.
(5) The official par row for 6 October has 5s30s at 61bp (5y 5.03%, 30y 5.64%), 1bp below the ≈62bp vendor estimate.
(6) The FTSE 100's 6 October close is disputed: Newsquawk and a vendor put it at about 10,542 (+0.42%), against the 10,517.00 (+0.18%) No. 023 published. The SMI's carried 13,858 also fails to tie to Newsquawk's 13,789.
(7) Resolved conflicts: the ACGB 10-year closed 5.35% on 6 October (the 5.40–5.41% readings were later prints); the Hang Seng closed 24,280.56; the ECB decision is Fri 30 Oct 00:15 AEDT (decision Thursday 29 October on the ECB's own calendar).
(8) The OAT–Bund dedicated series posted 5 October (143.4bp) and 6 October (127.4bp), so Tuesday's compression did reach V025's own mark. CCC OAS for 5 October was 1,211bp.

Conflicts and how they were resolved

S&P against 7,800: 7,801.77 and 7,801.73 from two close reports against ≈7,799.6 scaled from settled SPY. The cash close governs (§4.3), so V028 is closed; an AP print below 7,800 would reverse it. Dow: 51,179.87 (ties to AP's prior) preferred to 51,184.13 (does not). Nasdaq change: −61.10 computed against TheStreet's printed −61.20. Brent and WTI for 7 October: no settle found; Brent vendors span $100.30–101.01, WTI $88.26–88.52 after one stale $89.65 row was rejected. Saudi airport attacks: one report has Abha and Riyadh airports with 3 dead and 36 injured, another Jazan and Najran with 3 injured; both are attributed to the aviation authority, and neither is adopted. USD/INR: 96.57 onshore against 97.03 on a vendor. GBP/USD prior: 1.3216 carried against 1.3270 on a vendor. ACGB 3-year: 4.94% against 4.91%. Ai Group index: −25.5 against −24.2. TAIEX: 49,710.92 against about 49,806. Sensex prior: 73,067.81 implied against 72,943.91 carried. STI: a single CFD source whose prior does not tie. SMI: +0.14% against −0.13%. BoJ pricing: the only tracker returned the wrong meeting date and stale text; not used.

Single-source and unverified items

The 10-year auction's when-issued level and bidder split (indirects 80.3%, dealers 2.5%) · the Nasdaq-100 close · the VIX close and its timestamp · TOPIX · the TAIEX and STI levels · Japanese, Korean and Hong Kong single-stock moves · intraday US movers (not closes) · the ACGB 30-year record · TTF and COMEX copper · gilt, Bund, OAT, BTP, JGB and Swiss yields (vendor) · BoE, ECB and RBNZ pricing (one tracker each) · the RBI's 6–0 vote (one outlet) · Samsung's consensus · VLCC rates · Chevron's evacuation · the Kpler and Global Energy Flow Hormuz estimates · the Flow Show figures (secondary summary) · Citi's JGB note and BofA's "tech bubble" note (headlines only) · prediction-market odds (aggregator with conflicting dates).

Not published

The AP tabulation for 7 October · the official 7 October par row · the settled 7 October Fed Rate Monitor read · the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI settles for 7 October · the Stoxx 600 close · the SPI this morning · NZX 50 closes for 6 and 7 October · ASX breadth · the Canada 10-year for 7 October · LME settlements for 7 October · Dalian and SGX iron ore · OAS for 7 October · Logan's 6 October remarks · August consumer credit · the Poland and Peru rate decisions · official Golden Week totals · Lipper and EPFR weekly totals · dealer-gamma levels (behind a login) · the October FMS release date · any Hormuz closure probability.

Tomorrow's first verification targets

(1) The AP tabulation for 7 October, which confirms or reverses V028's closure. (2) The official 7 and 8 October par rows for V030, and the 30-year auction result. (3) The OAT–Bund dedicated series for 7 October, to see whether Wednesday's re-widening shows on V025's own series. (4) ICE Brent settles for 7 and 8 October. (5) The ASX 200's 6 October close (8,733.30 against ≈8,735.7) and the FTSE 100's (10,517 against ≈10,542). (6) The settled Fed read and tonight's claims. (7) The ECB accounts on spreads. (8) China's reopening session, the first fix and Samsung's results. (9) Any Saudi or Aramco statement on Rabigh.

United States, the Fed and positioning

Rates, FX and central banks

RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · centralbank.watch — RBA · Fed · BoE · ECB
OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — OAT · Bund · BTP · Gilt · JGB · ACGB · GuruFocus — French spread
TE — DXY · EUR · AUD · NZD · Investing.com — USD/JPY
ECB — meeting calendar · Econostream — ECB speakers · BoJ — schedule · BoE — MPC dates · Reuters via Yahoo — Mann · Business Standard — RBI

Australia, New Zealand and Asia

Europe and geopolitics

Commodities, credit and digital assets

EnergyNow — 6 Oct settles · Investing.com — Brent history · TE — Brent · Buckhead · TE — EIA crude · investingLive — EIA · OPEC — 4 October · Global Energy Flow — Hormuz
Kitco — gold · silver · platinum · Westmetall — copper · aluminium · TE — iron ore
FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · roic.ai — HY supply
CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · Coinalyze · SEC — Strategy 8-K

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the timestamps shown and may be revised; evidence states and unresolved conflicts are recorded in this section rather than smoothed over. Views are analytical framings with invalidation conditions set in advance, logged and scored in the project's views ledger. No. 024, Thursday 8 October 2026.