The bottom line
- September core CPI printed +0.3% m/m against +0.2% expected, and the October FOMC is now a live meeting. BLS (verified): headline +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y (consensus 0.6% / 3.6%; August 3.4%); core +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y (consensus 0.2% / 2.5%; August 2.4%). Gasoline rose 9.1% m/m (34.2% y/y), energy 5.2%, shelter 0.4%, services less energy 0.4%, airfares 1.2%. Core beat the Cleveland nowcast (0.20%) for a second month running. The Fed Rate Monitor, stamped "Oct 14, 2026 04:25PM EDT" (post-close, not the settled refresh), has an October hike at 34.4% against 20.7% in its prior-day column (it read 40.2% at 13:15 ET, before the long end rallied), and at least one hike by December at 91.0%. Other snapshots span 37% (CME FedWatch, ≈14:26 ET, via Reuters) to 46–51% (Bloomberg and Reuters shortly after the print) and 47.5% on Polymarket. Treat October as roughly one in three on the post-close read, with intraday reads up to about half, and the settled read still to come. PPI and retail sales at 23:30 AEDT tonight are the next input; Barkin said PPI "is going to help inform" his view.
- Equities sold the print where the multiple is highest: S&P −1.10% to 7,719.54, Nasdaq −1.88%, Russell −1.93%, Dow −0.09%. Levels are AP's Tuesday closes plus Investrade's Wednesday point changes, and they agree with settled ETFs (SPY −1.08%, QQQ −1.97%, IWM −1.92%, DIA −0.11%); AP's own Wednesday table was not readable, so they are corroborated, not verified. Tech fell about 3% and health care and staples rose about 2%. The AI-infrastructure complex took the damage: Oracle about −7% to −9%, CoreWeave −15%, Dell −12% on a Barclays downgrade, ASML's US shares −3.9% after results, Micron −4.1%. The S&P is −1.18% on the week and sits on its 200-day average zone near 7,700–7,707 (Investing.com, intraday read). The SOX fell for a sixth straight session (Reuters, intraday). TSMC's call is about 17:00 AEDT today, after this note files.
- The curve bear-flattened at the front and the long end still rallied, which works against V030. Official par for 13 October posted and is verified: 2y 4.79%, 5y 5.00%, 10y 5.21%, 30y 5.56%, so 5s30s 56bp, 6bp above V030's 50bp stop. Wednesday's par row had not posted at filing. Vendor closes for Wednesday: 2y about 4.81–4.82% (+2 to +3bp), 10y about 5.19–5.21% (−1 to −3bp, after touching about 5.30% after the print), 30y 5.53% (−3bp). If par confirms those levels, 5s30s narrows again. Read here as the market pricing the Fed doing the work at the front end, which caps the term premium the steepener needs.
- The banks finished the week weaker on rates, not on credit, and HY OAS widened 5bp to 316bp. Bank of America fell 4.8% to $51.39: EPS $0.91 (adjusted $1.08 excluding a $1.2bn AML settlement) against $1.10–1.11 consensus, with revenue of $30.0bn a miss and FICC −17% (press reports of the release; not read from the 8-K). Morgan Stanley beat (EPS $3.03 against $2.83–2.91; equities trading about $5.8bn) and still fell 2.7%. FRED's 13 October observations (verified): IG 83bp (0), HY 316bp (+5), CCC 1,267bp (+14), a new CCC series high. V017's downgrade mirror (two HY prints below 305bp) is now 11bp away; the view stays at High.
- Australia fell 0.64% to 8,727.9 before the CPI, and the AUD printed above 0.70 on the RBA's 4pm table before giving it back in New York. Banks led the fall (financials −1.4%, CBA −2.2%), ending a three-day run; energy rose 0.8% (Santos at its highest close since November 2014). December SPI settled the day session at 8,745 (−73) (ASX EOD, verified); the overnight session was not obtained, so no implied open is quoted. The RBA table had AUD/USD 0.7002 (+0.59%) and AUD/NZD 1.2444; New York ended about 0.697–0.698 on the dollar's CPI bid. September labour force is 11:30 AEDT today: consensus about +20k and 4.6% after +39.5k. November RBA pricing is about 24–28% (centralbank.watch; TE).
- Metals and crypto fell on the rates repricing while oil rose on the Gulf: gold −1.5%, silver −6%, bitcoin −2%, WTI +1%. Gold spot $4,096.30 (Kitco, 16:46 ET, −$63.80, −1.53%), its lowest since early August on TE's account; silver about $55.6. Bitcoin about $81,700 (CoinGecko and CMC, 17:30–20:00 UTC) after about $250–330m of long liquidations. Oil: Monday-to-Tuesday is now settled (Brent December $105.69 on 13 October, verified), and Wednesday's vendor marks are Brent about $106.1–106.6 and WTI November about $95.1, a three-week high. A container ship sank south of Hormuz after a mine or projectile strike (Reuters via Korea Times; IRGC claim), and Houthi missiles set fire to an Aramco building. The IEA cut its 2026 demand estimate by 2.6mb/d to 102.4mb/d and said Gulf crude exports recovered to 13.9mb/d, over 75% of pre-war, in September.
Overnight recap
The CPI print
BLS released September CPI at 08:30 ET (verified). Headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, against 0.6% and 3.6% expected; the NSA index was 336.940. Core rose 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y against 0.2% and 2.5%, its second straight monthly beat. The detail: gasoline +9.1% (NSA +6.5%), energy +5.2% m/m and +20.4% y/y, shelter +0.4% (OER +0.3%), services less energy services +0.4% (3.1% y/y), airfares +1.2%, used cars +0.7%, medical care +0.1%, food unchanged. The Social Security COLA for 2027 was set at 3.6% (TheStreet; not checked against SSA). By 09:11 ET the 2-year was above 4.89% and the 10-year at 5.30% with the dollar index at 102.62 (Schwab). The 10-year then gave the move back and finished about 5.20%; the 2-year held most of its rise. Investrade's recap gives both +3bp and +7.2bp for the 2-year in different paragraphs; TE has +2bp. The size of the front-end move is therefore unresolved within 2–7bp.
United States: the high-multiple end sold
Closes (derived from AP Tuesday plus Investrade's Wednesday changes; ETF-corroborated): S&P 500 7,719.54 (−85.91, −1.10%), Dow 51,621.78 (−48.32, −0.09%), Nasdaq Composite 26,692.87 (−511.51, −1.88%), Russell 2000 2,729.54 (−53.83, −1.93%). Week to date: S&P −1.18%, Composite −2.46%, Russell −2.76%, Dow −0.06%. Settled ETFs (16:00 ET stamps): SPY 769.60 (−1.08%), QQQ 728.95 (−1.97%), IWM 271.40 (−1.92%), DIA 515.62 (−0.11%). The S&P has now fallen three sessions from its record. Breadth at 14:26 ET (Reuters): S&P decliners 1.7:1, Nasdaq 22 new highs against 466 new lows. The VIX was 16.87 (+1.60) at 15:52 ET (Yahoo) and TE shows 17.05; neither is a settled close.
Sectors and movers. Technology about −3% and industrials −1.4%; health care and staples both up about 2% (Investrade, TheStreet). Homebuilders hit an 18-month low with the MBA 30-year rate at 7.50%, its highest since November 2023. AI infrastructure: Oracle −7% to −9%, CoreWeave −15%, Nebius −10%, Dell −12% and HPE −7.6% on Barclays (Tim Long) downgrades to Equal Weight, Vertiv, Eaton and Quanta lower. ASML's US listing closed $1,650.00 (−3.94%) and Micron $914.13 (−4.08%) (stockanalysis, verified). Financials: Bank of America −4.76% to $51.39, Morgan Stanley −2.74% to $181.52, State Street −7.6% on a revenue miss, Progressive −8%. BlackRock beat with $205bn of net new money and drifted to flat. Eli Lilly rose 3–4%. Netflix is cutting about 1,000 jobs.
The Fed and the Beige Book. Barkin: CPI "was higher than I would have hoped"; he would not project the October outcome (FXStreet). Bowman, speaking from Bangkok, said she saw no immediate need for another hike (TE; single source), which TE credits for trimming the dollar's gains. Williams (13 Oct) wants one more hike this year; Collins also wants another this year (headline only). The Beige Book (14:00 ET; secondary summaries, the Fed PDF did not fetch) dropped its overall characterisation of activity; two districts reported moderate growth, three modest, four slight and three no change; employment was little or no net change in most districts; prices rose at a robust pace in three districts and moderately in eight, with "higher oil prices" in every district report and diesel the most-cited cost. Five districts reported firms trimming staff through attrition, with AI more prominent.
Europe: ASML lifted the open; healthcare and luxury led
Closes that tie to Tuesday: FTSE 100 10,729.92 (+0.75%), CAC 40 7,880.60 (+0.68%) and DAX 25,299 (+0.15%) (TE; verified by arithmetic tie, but note TE's quotes are CFD-based and Irish Times has the FTSE at 10,724.86). The Stoxx 600 closed about 637.75–638.00 (+0.43–0.47%) (Irish Times; TE). Both imply a Tuesday close of 635.02, not the 635.26 we printed; see §13. ASML rose on the day (+1.2% on Irish Times and MarketScreener, +2.2% on TE; size unresolved) after record Q3 sales of €11.66bn, a 57.5% gross margin, a Q4 guide of €14.2–15.2bn and a warning that planned capacity "will not allow us to meet our customer demand" in 2027–28. Healthcare rose 2.3% (GSK +4.6%), luxury recovered (LVMH +2.1%, Hermès +2.3%) and defence rose (Rheinmetall +3.3–3.6%). Siemens Energy fell 5.4% and Ørsted 2.7–3.9% on a Bloomberg report that the US will re-evaluate its Rhode Island permit. IBEX and FTSE MIB carry contradictory TE figures and are not printed. In bonds the OAT rose 5bp to 4.884% while the Bund fell 2bp to 3.44%.
Asia: a softer day after two days of rout
The Nikkei closed 67,744.29 (−0.05%) (Nikkei Indexes, verified) after rising 0.93% early; Tokyo Electron fell 2.7% after ASML's results and the megabanks fell 1.9–2.9%; TOPIX −0.34% to 4,096.78. The KOSPI closed 6,028.8 (−0.1%) (Aju Press; ties to Tuesday) after touching 6,190.7; another source has 6,009 (−0.4%), flagged. Foreigners sold for a seventh session (−₩893.8bn); SK hynix −1.7%, Samsung flat, battery makers up. The TAIEX rose 0.59% (Focus Taiwan headline; level ≈48,626 derived). China's data ran hot: September PPI 5.0% y/y against 4.5% (fastest since June 2022), CPI 0.9% against 1.0%, exports +36.3% against 25.7% and a $133.5bn surplus (TE, FXStreet/ING). New loans were CNY1,080bn against 1,025bn and M2 7.2% (ForexFactory). Shanghai fell 0.88% to 3,767.23 and the Hang Seng 0.13% to 24,314.17. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7249 against a Reuters estimate of 6.6922, a 327-pip lean against yuan strength (Tradingpedia, investingLive). India: Sensex −0.34% to 72,781.89, Nifty −0.44% to 22,622.70; foreign investors have sold for 13 sessions.
Geopolitics since Wednesday morning
Hormuz. The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank south of the strait after an unidentified projectile or mine strike; all 21 crew were evacuated (Fox, Newsquawk, ABC; corroborated). A dry-bulk ship, Cape Dao, was also reported sinking. Iran says it is using "new tactics" against shipping and its own exports are at zero under the US blockade (Reuters via Korea Times). No daily transit count newer than Kpler's 7 October preliminary (5 tanker crossings) or Windward's week to 30 September (119 transits) was found. Saudi Arabia. Houthi missiles set fire to an Aramco building and wounded four; outlets disagree on whether it was the Dhahran headquarters or Riyadh. A Riyadh airport NOTAM reportedly runs to 17 October (unverified). Trump said he would consider joining Saudi-backed strikes on the Houthis and, at an Alaska rally, "wait until you see what we do to Iran". Saudi Arabia plans 1.2mb/d of extra export capacity in seven to eight weeks by repurposing gas pipelines (Rigzone). This is the Yemen theatre; nothing new from Maysan in Iraq.
Russia–Ukraine. Moscow said Ukrainian drones hit refineries in Saratov and Ryazan on 14 October, three days after Trump said both sides had agreed to stop; regional authorities reported no hits and Kyiv called the reports fake (Meduza, Bloomberg). Six senators, four of them Republicans, are pressing Trump to reverse the Russian diesel deal (USA Herald; undated). US–China. The truce runs to 10 January 2027; China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth controls expires 10 November, and 178 Section 301 exclusions expire 9–10 November (FXStreet, Importivity; secondary). France. The PS rejection motion was defeated on Tuesday evening, 236 to 149 (LCP, verified); the revenue debate runs to about Monday 19 October.
This morning's setup
December SPI settled Wednesday's day session at 8,745, 17 points above the cash close; the CPI landed after that, and the overnight session was not obtained, so there is no verified implied open. US futures direction and a 1.1% S&P fall point to a weaker local start; that is an inference, not a print. Labour force at 11:30 and TSMC at about 17:00 are the two Asian events; PPI and retail sales at 23:30.
Market dashboard
Week to date: change since Friday 9 October's close
| Equities | Close | 1d | wtd | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,719.54 | −1.10% | −1.18% | Corroborated: AP Tue close + Investrade −85.91; SPY −1.08% (16:00 stamp). AP Wednesday table not readable at filing |
| Dow Jones · Nasdaq Comp. | 51,621.78 · 26,692.87 | −0.09% · −1.88% | −0.06% · −2.46% | Same method. DIA −0.11%, QQQ −1.97%. Nasdaq-100 cash close not obtained |
| Russell 2000 · VIX | 2,729.54 · ≈16.9–17.1 | −1.93% · ≈+1.6 | −2.76% · — | IWM −1.92%. VIX: 16.87 at 15:52 ET (Yahoo), 17.05 (TE); not settled |
| Stoxx 600 · DAX | ≈637.75–638.00 · 25,299 | ≈+0.43–0.47% · +0.15% | ≈+1.0% · ≈+0.85% | Stoxx: Irish Times and TE imply a 635.02 Tuesday close (correction, §13). DAX ties on TE (CFD-based) |
| CAC 40 · FTSE 100 | 7,880.60 · 10,729.92 | +0.68% · +0.75% | +0.99% · +1.68% | Both tie to Tuesday on TE (CFD-based). Irish Times FTSE 10,724.86. IBEX and FTSE MIB contradictory; not printed |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 67,744.29 · 4,096.78 | −0.05% · −0.34% | −1.87% · — | Nikkei verified (Nikkei Indexes). TOPIX corroborated (IndexBox, Rallies). Tokyo Electron −2.7% |
| Shanghai · Hang Seng | 3,767.23 · 24,314.17 | −0.88% · −0.13% | −1.21% · — | Armenpress; Shanghai ties. CSI 300 and HS Tech closes not obtained |
| KOSPI · TAIEX | 6,028.8 · ≈48,626 | −0.11% · +0.59% | −9.02% · ≈−1.39% | KOSPI Aju Press, ties (ad-hoc-news 6,009, rejected). TAIEX level derived from Focus Taiwan's +0.59%. wtd vs 8 Oct |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 72,781.89 · 22,622.70 | −0.34% · −0.44% | — · +0.45% | TE; both tie to Tuesday |
| S&P/ASX 200 · NZX 50 | 8,727.9 · 13,760.39 | −0.64% · +0.1% | +0.13% · — | Corroborated (ABC 16:24; Mining.com.au). SPI Dec day settle 8,745 (−73), verified (ASX EOD). All Ords not obtained |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST par, 13 Oct (2y · 5y · 10y · 30y) | 4.79 · 5.00 · 5.21 · 5.56% | −1 · −2 · −3 · −4bp | Verified (Treasury TextView). vs 9 Oct par. 5s30s 56bp, 2s10s 42bp. 14 Oct row not posted at filing |
| UST vendor, 14 Oct (2y · 10y · 30y) | 4.81–4.82 · 5.19–5.21 · 5.53% | +2/+3 · −1/−3 · −3bp | TE and Investrade (vendor). Intraday 2y ≈4.89–4.93%, 10y ≈5.30% after the print. Not used to mark V030 |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.421 · 5.90% | −2 · −3bp | TE |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.44 · 4.884 · 4.562% | −2 · +5 · 0bp | TE. French yields near 20-year highs; OAT–Bund derived from TE ≈144.4bp (not the dedicated series) |
| OAT–Bund (dedicated series) | 139.5bp (12 Oct) | no 13 Oct print | V025's mark (ideal-investisseur). One-year range 59.0–146.9bp. TE-derived 13 Oct ≈137.8, 14 Oct ≈144.4bp, not substituted |
| JGB 10y · 30y | 3.00 · 4.05% | 0 · +2bp | TE |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y | 4.91 · 5.32 · 5.77% | +2 · +2 · 0bp | TE levels vs Tuesday; futures settles imply 3y +3.5bp and 10y +2.5bp (ASX EOD). TE's own change column disagrees |
| Canada 10y | 3.857% | −1bp | TE |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS (13 Oct) | 83 · 316 · 1,267bp | 0 · +5 · +14 | Verified (FRED .txt). CCC a new series high; HY +13bp since 6 Oct. 14 Oct not posted |
| FX | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.54 | +0.36% | TE; intraday high 102.88, the highest since April 2025. Investrade +0.4% |
| EUR/USD · GBP/USD | 1.1123–1.1155 · 1.3144–1.3182 | −0.4 to −0.6% · ≈−0.6% | TE pages disagree with themselves; Investrade 1.1156. Euro weakest since May 2025 |
| USD/JPY | 158.08–158.35 | ≈−0.1% | TE, Investrade. Intraday ≈158.5. No MoF remarks found |
| AUD/USD | 0.7002 (RBA) · ≈0.6966–0.6984 (NY) | +0.59% (RBA) · ≈0 to −0.2% (NY) | RBA 4pm verified, first print above 0.70 in about two weeks. NY from TE, untimed. Bases never blended |
| AUD/NZD · NZD/USD | 1.2444 (RBA) · ≈0.5588 | −0.07% · ≈−0.4% | RBA 4pm verified (AUD/JPY 110.74, TWI 65.0). NZD single source |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4244 · 0.8322–0.8343 | +0.2% · ±0.2% | TE |
| USD/CNY · fix | 6.6993 · 6.7249 | +0.10% | Fix vs Reuters estimate 6.6922: 327 pips weak-side. Thu fix 12:15 AEDT |
| USD/INR · USD/KRW · USD/MXN | 95.2–95.35 · 1,334.6–1,340.8 · 18.48 | ≈0 · KRW firmer · +0.6% | TE. KRW Seoul close 1,338.3 (Aju). Peso near a one-year low |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER | ≈$106.1–106.6 · 13 Oct $105.69 | ≈+0.4 to +0.8% | 13 Oct settle verified (Rigzone; Investing row). 14 Oct: Investing row 106.56 matches Reuters' 13:25 ET mark; Investrade 106.06. No ICE settle confirmed |
| WTI NOVEMBER | ≈$95.08–95.09 · 13 Oct $94.14 | +1.0% | Investing row and Investrade agree; three-week high. Intraday 96.06. Brent–WTI ≈$11–11.5 |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $3.19–3.20 · €87.69 | −2.4% · +1.1% | TE; Rigzone ticker agrees on gas. TTF single source |
| Gold (spot) | $4,096.30 | −1.53% | Kitco 16:46 ET (own-basis −$63.80). TE $4,092. vs our $4,162.50 print −1.59% |
| Silver · Platinum | ≈$55.6 · ≈$1,612 | ≈−6.0% · ≈−3.5% | TE; Kitco ratio 73.9 implies ≈$55.4. Platinum single source |
| Copper LME cash · COMEX | $14,741 (13 Oct) · $6.57/lb | −0.55% · −1.6% | Westmetall verified (stocks 229,650t). COMEX TE |
| Iron ore 62% · Newcastle coal | $90.72 · $150.40 (13 Oct) | −0.1% · +0.7% | TE. Lithium carbonate CNY108,250 (−3.0%); uranium $90.00 |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,660–81,780 | ≈−1.8 to −2.0% | CMC $81,776 at 17:33 UTC (via CryptoTimes); CoinGecko $81,661 (≈19–20 UTC). Session low ≈$81,500. CoinGecko's own 24h % rejected |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,429–2,437 · $104.23 · $1.33 · $728.94 | ≈−2.8 to −5% · −3.3% · −2.9% · −1.6% | Total cap $2.80–2.86tn; BTC dominance 57.4% |
| Spot ETF flows (13 Oct) | BTC +$175.7m · ETH +$24.8m | 14 Oct not posted | Farside, verified. First BTC inflow day after −$484.9m and −$244.1m on 7–8 Oct |
Conventions: 1d is Wednesday's session; wtd is against Friday 9 October (KOSPI and TAIEX against 8 October). US cash closes are derived from AP's Tuesday closes plus Investrade's Wednesday changes and corroborated by settled ETFs; they are not AP-verified. The Treasury par row is official; vendor rows never mark a view. FX is New York unless marked RBA 4pm. Oil for Wednesday is a vendor mark. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value and "—" means not obtained; §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. The Fed is back as the price-setter at the front end
A second core beat in a row (+0.3% against +0.2%) did what the 0.6% headline could not: it moved October. The Investing.com monitor went from 20.7% (prior day) to 40.2% at 13:15 ET and 34.4% at 16:25 ET as the long end rallied, and December's distribution shifted from 70.6% one hike / 17.6% two to 61.3% / 29.7%. Barkin wants PPI before deciding; Bowman sees no immediate need; Williams and Collins want one more this year. The September SEP had the 2026 median at 4.1%, one hike above the current 3.75–4.00% range, which the market now prices by December with a meaningful chance of two. The Beige Book did not offer cover: activity flat in a quarter of districts, prices robust or moderate in eleven of twelve, oil in every report. Read here as an energy shock now visible in services ex-shelter (+0.4%) and airfares, not only at the pump.
2. AI hardware: the US caught the Asian sell-off, and TSMC reports today
Tuesday's edition said Wall Street had not followed Asia's memory rout. On Wednesday it did, with CPI as the catalyst: QQQ −1.97%, the SOX down a sixth session (Reuters, intraday), Oracle about −7% to −9%, CoreWeave −15%, Dell −12% on Barclays' call that enterprise AI has not inflected, and ASML's US shares −3.9% despite a record quarter. ASML's message cut both ways: demand exceeds planned 2027–28 capacity (bullish for the cycle) while it no longer gives quarterly bookings (no confirmation). Asia was calmer: KOSPI −0.1%, Nikkei −0.05%, TAIEX +0.59%. The FMS has long semiconductors the most crowded trade and tech at a net 37% overweight, the highest since August 2020 (InvestingLive, Benzinga). SKEW was 154.7 on 13 October (95th percentile, one year; thetrading.tools).
3. Credit: CCC keeps widening and HY is following
FRED's 13 October prints: HY 316bp (+5), CCC 1,267bp (+14, a new series high), IG 83bp (unchanged). HY is 13bp wider than on 6 October and CCC 65bp wider than on 2 October. The bank read was mixed: BofA's net charge-offs of about $1.3bn were lower than a year earlier and JPMorgan's card NCO rate fell, but BofA missed on revenue and trading and the four lenders that reported this week fell 2.7–5.6% in at least one session. EPFR has HY outflows for a fifth straight week (BofA via Finvaulta, 9 October).
4. Oil: supply is recovering on paper and still being attacked at sea
The IEA's October report (verified) is the most useful fresh document: 2026 demand cut by 2.6mb/d to 102.4mb/d; September supply up 2.5mb/d to 102.3mb/d with OPEC+ +2.1mb/d led by Saudi Arabia; Gulf crude exports 13.9mb/d (over 75% of pre-war) and Hormuz flows 10.9mb/d; observed global stocks 509mb below end-February; diesel at record highs of about $220/bbl in Europe and the US; and a Dated Brent near $134 against futures near $107 at the time of writing, as stated in the summary (not cross-checked). Against that, a container ship sank south of Hormuz, the Houthis hit an Aramco building, and WTI made a three-week high.
5. Australia and Europe, carried
Australia: the ASX gave back Tuesday's bank-led hold (−0.64%) and the 3-year rose about 2bp before CPI; today's labour force is the first of two prints (with Q3 CPI on 28 October) that carry November. Europe: the OAT rose 5bp while the Bund rallied 2bp on Wednesday, the opposite of Tuesday; the dedicated OAT–Bund series has not posted 13 October. The PS rejection motion failed 236–149, so the revenue debate continues.
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing: post-CPI post-close read against the page's prior-day column
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct | October hike 34.4% (16:25 ET Wed; prior day 20.7%; 40.2% at 13:15 ET). Other snapshots 37% (CME, 14:26 ET) to 46–51% (Bloomberg, Reuters, just after the print). December ≥1 hike 91.0%, two hikes 29.7% | Hawkish; October live |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP | ≈24–28% for 3 Nov (centralbank.watch ≈25.7%, ASX-method 24%; TE ≈28%); December ≈4.75% implied. Pre-CPI reads | Tightening bias |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 (meeting 28–29 Oct) | Leaning hold in October, December hike; no current October probability found. Lagarde: energy inflation "has yet to spread" (TE). Šimkus: October not ruled out | December over October |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | ≈90–100% for November (PoundSterlingLive 9 Oct; TE wording). Bailey 18:30 today and Fri 13:00; Greene 17:45 | Hawkish |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Fri 30 Oct (meeting 29–30 Oct) | ≈12–26% October (OIS vs futures, 6–7 Oct; stale); December favoured. Ueda: long rates "determined by market forces" | Gradual; December |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp 2 Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 | ≈58% for a hike (TE, 8 Oct; stale). Westpac: hold, then December | Removing stimulus |
| BoC | 2.25% | Seven holds in 2026 | Thu 29 Oct 00:45 | Hold favoured after September jobs −68.3k, unemployment 6.5%; no current figure | Hold |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% · 7d 1.40% | Unchanged | Fix daily 12:15 · LPR Tue 20 Oct 12:00 | Wed fix 6.7249 vs estimate 6.6922 (327 pips weak-side) | Leaning against CNY gains |
| RBI · BoK | 5.50% · 3.00% | RBI +25bp 7 Oct · BoK +25bp 27 Aug | BoK Thu 22 Oct · RBI 4 Dec | BoK: Robinhood market ≈80% hold, 12% hike (desk 5; single source). RBI capping the rupee | Tightening |
| SNB · Riksbank · Norges | 0.00% · 1.75% · 4.50% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep | Riksbank Wed 4 Nov · Norges Thu 5 Nov · SNB Dec | Riksbank signalling hikes; SNB on hold | Mixed |
| Banxico · BCB · BI · CBRT | 6.50% · 13.75% · 5.75% · 37.00% | BCB −25bp 16 Sep | BI Wed 21 Oct · CBRT Thu 22 Oct · Banxico Thu 5 Nov | TE forecasts holds for BI and CBRT | Holds |
Fed. The page read 40.2% at 13:15 ET, while the 10-year was near 5.25–5.30%, and 34.4% at 16:25 ET after the long end rallied; the settled refresh had not posted at filing. We quote one figure (34.4%, the post-close read) for consistency and show the range once. The last Fed voices before the blackout: Hammack Fri 07:30 AEDT and Warsh Fri 14:30 AEDT with the IMF's Georgieva in Bangkok. The prior edition's 19.5%/23.0% discrepancy is overtaken: the page's prior-day column now reads 20.7% for 13 October, against the 24.1% we quoted from its 15:45 ET stamp, the same pattern of a near-close read not matching the later prior-day figure.
RBA. No Board speech this week; the Annual Report is today after 15:00, conference papers Friday 11:30, Kent Sunday 11:00 and Monday 10:05, Hauser Wednesday 21 October 09:30 (rba.gov.au, verified). Bank calls (7–8 Oct, single source): Westpac and ANZ expect a November hike to a 4.85% peak; NAB sees 4.60% as the peak; CBA has not committed.
Regional briefs
United States
Inflation is broadening and the tape knows it. Core +0.3% for a second month, services ex-shelter +0.4%, a Beige Book with oil in every district. The S&P sits 1.6% below its 7,844.52 record (week of 7 October; secondary) with half its members below the 200-day (52.4%, 12 Oct; historyofmarket) and new lows outnumbering highs about 4:1. FactSet (9 Oct): Q3 blended EPS growth +29.6%, forward P/E 19.1×. Tonight: PPI (+0.5–0.6% m/m expected; core +0.3%), retail sales (+0.3%; control +0.3–0.5%), claims (≈200k), Empire and Philly Fed. Politics: Democrats about 90% for the House on Kalshi/Polymarket (DeFi Rate, 14 Oct); the September budget statement was due Wednesday and its actual was not found.
Euro area
Equities up, French bonds down. ASML's record quarter lifted European tech at the open, and healthcare (+2.3%) and luxury led the close. The OAT rose 5bp to 4.884% while the Bund fell 2bp. Euro-area September HICP is 3.8% (final Friday 20:00 AEDT; core 2.5%). Lagarde said energy inflation "has yet to spread across the broader euro-area economy" (TE; full text not found). The EU summit is in its second day today. Germany is in talks to buy 50% of KNDS (Newsquawk).
United Kingdom
Gilts eased with Bunds. The 10-year fell 2bp to 5.421% and the 30-year 3bp to 5.90%. November is about 90–100% priced. August GDP is today at 17:00 AEDT (−0.1% m/m expected after +0.4%). Bailey has said a hike gets "harder to avoid the longer the shock persists" and that the 28 October Budget "must be credible" (PoundSterlingLive; dates of the latest remarks unconfirmed). Sky reports the Chancellor is preparing to accept a hit to fiscal headroom.
Japan
Flat after a chip-led reversal. The Nikkei lost its early 0.9% gain after ASML and closed −0.05%; the megabanks fell 1.9–2.9% and TOPIX −0.34%. The JGB 10-year was flat at 3.00% and the 30-year rose to 4.05%. Reports have the BoJ reluctant to hike back-to-back in October. USD/JPY held about 158.1–158.4 through the CPI; the last intervention was a joint US–Japan action on 30 July and Katayama, Bessent and Ueda are in Bangkok to 18 October. Core machinery orders today 10:50 AEDT.
China & Hong Kong
Hot external data, soft equities. Exports +36.3% y/y and a $133.5bn surplus put the nine-month surplus near $938bn (Saxo); PPI 5.0% is the fastest since June 2022 on fuel, mining and non-ferrous metals; CPI 0.9% with food down a sixth month. New loans CNY1,080bn. Shanghai −0.88%, Hang Seng −0.13%. The PBoC's 327-pip weak-side fix shows it still leaning against yuan strength. Q3 GDP, industrial production and retail sales are Monday 13:00 AEDT (prior 4.3% y/y); Hong Kong is closed Monday.
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Korea stabilised; India's outflows continue. The KOSPI's −0.1% ended a day that touched +2.6% intraday; foreigners sold a seventh session and the won firmed to 1,338.3. Taiwan rose 0.59% ahead of TSMC (consensus net profit NT$740.8–746.3bn, LSEG and Reuters). India's foreign investors have sold for 13 sessions with year-to-date outflows a record $32.5bn (TE); India is closed Tue 20 Oct. The peso weakened 0.6% to 18.48 as the carry spread narrowed. Brazil's runoff is 25 October.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA: pricing unchanged into the jobs print
The cash rate is 4.60% after the unanimous 29 September hike; the minutes keep further hikes "if required" with no path. Pricing for 3 November is about 24–28%: centralbank.watch has about 25.7% (+6.4bp priced, implied 4.66%), its ASX-method summary 24%, and TE about 28%; December cumulative is about 4.75% and February 2027 about 4.83%. Those reads predate US CPI; a firmer US front end and a 0.70 AUD pull in opposite directions for the RBA. Labour force today 11:30: consensus about +20k (TE forecast +15.9k; Westpac +20k, 4.6%, participation 67.0%) after August's +39.5k, 4.6% (4.646% unrounded) and 67.1%. Westpac notes rising participation could let slack emerge faster than the RBA expects. Q3 CPI is Wed 28 Oct.
Markets: banks led the fall
Equities. The ASX 200 closed 8,727.9 (−56.0, −0.64%) (ABC 16:24 and Mining.com.au; TE about 8,728), ending a three-day run. Financials fell 1.4% (CBA −2.2%; the banks index was −1.7% intraday), materials about −0.9% led by gold miners, energy +0.8%; six of eleven sectors rose (ABC). Movers: Austal +10.1%, Karoon +6.2%, Santos +1.4% to its highest close since November 2014; Paladin −9.3%, 4DMedical −6.9%, Evolution −2.9% after its quarterly, Genesis −3.9%, Qantas −2.2%, BHP −0.9%. Glencore listed CDIs on the ASX (GLC). The Small Ords is down 10.7% since 25 August (Market Index). Futures: December SPI settled the day at 8,745 (−73; range 8,727–8,795) (ASX EOD, verified); March 8,735. The overnight session after CPI was not obtained.
Rates and currency. ACGB 3-year 4.91%, 10-year 5.32%, 30-year 5.77% (TE levels; up about 2bp on Tuesday's closes). ASX bond futures settled YT 95.080 and XT 94.665, implying 4.920% and 5.335% (+3.5bp and +2.5bp). A Market Index intraday note of the 10-year "falling 7bp to 5.32%" does not reconcile and is rejected. The RBA 4pm table: AUD/USD 0.7002 (+41 pips), AUD/NZD 1.2444 (−9), AUD/JPY 110.74, TWI 65.0. In New York the AUD fell back to about 0.697–0.698 on the dollar's CPI bid.
Data, housing and the China link
Data. Westpac's leading index for September was −0.03% (Market Index). Westpac-MI consumer sentiment for October was 80.4 (−4.7%), released 5–6 October. China. PPI 5.0% (fuel, mining, non-ferrous metals) and imports +31% y/y are supportive for the commodity complex in principle, but BHP and RIO fell on the day and 62% iron ore held about $90.7. LME copper slipped to $14,741 and lithium carbonate fell another 3% to CNY108,250. Housing. Cotality's preliminary auction clearance for 10–11 October was again not found; the last final reading was 45.4% (week to 4 October).
New Zealand
The NZX 50 rose 0.1% to 13,760.39 (Mining.com.au; single source). NZD/USD was about 0.5588 (−0.4%) on TE's dollar table; its dedicated page was stale. The RBNZ decides Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT (≈58% priced on 8 October; stale). Selected price indexes are Friday; Q3 CPI is Thu 22 Oct 08:45 AEDT (prior 1.5% q/q). The general election is in November.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · ≈24–28% priced |
| Labour force (Sep) | — | +39.5k · 4.6% · 67.1% | Today 11:30 · consensus ≈+20k, 4.6% |
| NAB business confidence · conditions (Sep) | −13 · −1 | Lowest since May | October survey, November |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) | 80.4 (−4.7%) | Six-month low | November survey |
| Westpac leading index (Sep) | −0.03% | −0.04% | Next month |
| RBA Annual Report | — | Today after 15:00 | |
| Quarterly CPI (Q3) | — | Trimmed mean 3.6% | Wed 28 Oct 11:30 — V006's resolution date |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 30y | 4.91 · 5.32 · 5.77% | 30y record 5.89% (7 Oct) | — |
House views & tactical framework
Nothing fired. V030 has its first official mark since 9 October: 56bp on 13 October par, 6bp above its stop. V017's HY mark moved 5bp away from the downgrade mirror (316bp) and CCC made a new high, which supports the view. V025 is carried at its last dedicated print (139.5bp, 12 October) because the series has not posted 13 October; TE-derived levels are shown in §03 and not used. V006 gained (+3.09% in favour), V023 lost 9 pips, and V024's underlying settled $105.69 on 13 October.
The NDX/SOX hedge, pre-committed. Our convention was to write it after TSMC. TSMC's call is at about 17:00 AEDT today, after filing, so No. 029 does not open it. The design, written now so No. 030 opens it mechanically: V031, Nasdaq-100 put spread, Low conviction, 1–2 month horizon, opened at Thursday's QQQ-derived Nasdaq-100 close. It closes if the Nasdaq-100 closes above 30,932 (the 50-day average on Investing.com's 12 October read) on two consecutive sessions. If TSMC guides gross margin above the 65–67% range and the Nasdaq-100 rises more than 2% on Thursday, No. 030 states why the hedge is deferred rather than opening it.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| US 5s30s (V030) | Steepener | Low | 1–3 mo | 56bp on official par, 13 Oct (5y 5.00%, 30y 5.56%), −1bp against a 57bp entry. First mark since 9 Oct (58bp). Wednesday's vendor curve (2y up, 30y −3bp) points narrower again. A Fed hike would be a bear flattener against it | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view (6bp away). Upgrade to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% on official par. Next mark: 14 Oct par row |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | Carried at 139.5bp (dedicated series, 12 Oct), +45.5bp from a ≈94bp entry. 13 Oct not posted. TE same-page derivations (≈137.8bp Tue, ≈144.4bp Wed) shown in §03, not substituted. The PS rejection motion failed; the revenue vote and Moody's (23 Oct, unverified) are ahead | UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp (59.5bp away); a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct or an explicit backstop signal |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | High | 1–3 mo | FRED 13 Oct: IG 83bp, HY 316bp (+5), CCC 1,267bp (+14, a series high). HY +13bp since 6 Oct. BofA missed on revenue and trading; HY fund outflows a fifth week (EPFR) | EXIT, UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (217bp away). MIRROR, UNCHANGED: back to Med if HY prints below 305bp on two consecutive FRED observations (11bp away) |
| Equities | |||||
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +3.09% in favour: 8,727.9 against 9,005.9. Banks reversed Tuesday's gain (financials −1.4%); the US sell-off came after the close and the SPI day settle is 8,745 | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it (2.0% away). Resolution: Q3 CPI Wed 28 Oct; labour force today first |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | 1.2444 on the RBA 4pm table (14 Oct), +1.05% from ≈1.2315; −9 pips on the day. AUD led on the RBA table; NZD weakened on the dollar in New York. CFTC: AUD is the only sizeable leveraged-fund G10 long (+54,133, 6 Oct) | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view (194 pips away). Dates: AU jobs today, NZ CPI Thu 22 Oct, RBNZ Wed 28 Oct 12:00 AEDT |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December settle $105.69 on 13 Oct (verified); Wednesday ≈$106.1–106.6 (vendor). A ship sank near Hormuz and an Aramco building was hit; the IEA cut 2026 demand by 2.6mb/d and has Gulf exports above 75% of pre-war | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53 (≈$16–17 below). Also a confirmed restart at scale, or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms |
Scorecard. Six open; 24 closed: 3 right, 14 wrong, 7 scratch, so 3 of 17 decided calls have been right. No change since Monday.
Portfolio-level read. The book is long the term premium (V030), long French fiscal stress (V025), short low-quality credit at High conviction (V017), underweight Australian equities and long AUD against NZD (V006, V023), with a residual oil call (V024). CPI day split it: credit and the ASX underweight gained, the steepener's next par print is likely narrower, and the long-end rally works against the term-premium thesis even as the front end reprices. The uncovered risk, an AI-hardware sell-off, arrived in New York on Wednesday with no hedge on; the hedge is pre-committed for No. 030.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
CFTC data are as of Tuesday 6 October; the next report (13 October positions) is Saturday 06:30 AEDT. TFF leveraged funds and legacy non-commercials are different series and are never mixed. Most gauges are as of 12–13 October, before CPI.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC TFF leveraged funds — positions as of Tue 6 October (verified, cftc.gov) | |||
| UST 2y · 5y · 10y | −1,257,484 · −2,127,567 · −2,139,785 | combined −336,637 on the week | Consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure, which the data cannot prove |
| Ultra-10 · bond · ultra-bond | −319,061 · −189,678 · −726,257 | +9,410 · +61,717 · +82,613 | Long-end shorts covered |
| E-mini S&P 500 | −415,087 | −42,598 | Consistent with hedging rather than outright bearishness |
| AUD · JPY · EUR · CAD | +54,133 · −25,043 · −44,261 · −79,625 | −6,459 · −10,882 · −4,996 · −9,981 | AUD the only sizeable G10 long in this series |
| Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA / EPFR credit flows (9 Oct) | Govt bonds +$4.59bn · MMF +$66.9bn | IG −$2.13bn · HY −$1.09bn | Largest government-bond inflow since April 2025; HY fifth straight outflow (Finvaulta) |
| LSEG Lipper (w/e 7 Oct) | US equity −$5.11bn · bonds +$19.78bn | MMF +$68.49bn | Tech funds +$4.53bn, the one equity inflow (Reuters via Investing) |
| ICI money funds (w/e 7 Oct) | $7.964trn | +$72.27bn | Verified (ICI) |
| US spot crypto ETFs (13 Oct) | BTC +$175.7m · ETH +$24.8m | first inflow day after outflows | Farside. CoinShares weekly not retrieved |
| Surveys, volatility and breadth | |||
| BofA FMS (October) | Cash 3.9% · equities net 44% OW | tech net 37% OW, highest since Aug 2020 | Most crowded: long semis, then short Treasuries (27%). Top tail risk: disorderly yields (31%). Pre-CPI survey |
| AAII (latest on page "Oct 7") | Bulls 40.3% · bears 39.0% | spread +1.3 | Next release today |
| SKEW (13 Oct) · put/call (12 Oct) | 154.7 · 0.91 | 95th pct 1-yr · 9-day avg 0.85 | Tails expensive with VIX mid-teens |
| Fear & Greed replica (13 Oct) | 34 (Fear) | 48 a week ago | Price strength 4; junk-bond demand 21; safe-haven 84 |
| % above 200-day (12 Oct) · highs/lows (13 Oct) | 52.4% · 89 / 353 | long-run mean 65.1% | Hindenburg 3 of 4 conditions, inactive |
| October opex (Fri 16 Oct) | ±1.12% implied to Friday | ±4.31% to 20 Nov | SquawkFlow, 14 Oct 14:53 ET. SpotGamma/Citadel notional not found |
| FactSet (9 Oct) | Fwd P/E 19.1× · Q3 EPS +29.6% | 10-yr avg 19.1× | Verified. Bottom-up target 9,290.58 |
| Prediction markets (14 Oct) | Fed Oct hike ≈47.5% (Polymarket, 09:31 ET) · House D ≈90% | Kalshi Oct ≈50% (thin) | Rio Times; DeFi Rate. Senate odds do not sum cleanly |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 15 October — Australian jobs · TSMC · UK GDP · US PPI and retail sales | ||||||
| Thu | 10:50 | Wed 19:50 | JP core machinery orders | +2.2% | −3.7% | L |
| Thu | 11:30 | Wed 20:30 | AU labour force (Sep) employment · unemployment | +19.6–20k · 4.6% | +39.5k · 4.6% | H |
| Thu | 12:15 · after 15:00 | Wed 21:15 | CNY fix · RBA Annual Report | 6.7249 | L | |
| Thu | ≈17:00 | 02:00 | TSMC Q3 call (14:00 Taipei; release time unconfirmed) | NP NT$740.8–746.3bn | rev NT$1.49trn known | H |
| Thu | 17:00 · 17:45 · 18:30 | 02:00 · 02:45 · 03:30 | UK GDP (Aug) m/m · BoE Greene · BoE Bailey | −0.1% | +0.4% | M |
| Thu | 17:45 · 20:00 | 02:45 · 05:00 | French final CPI · EZ industrial production (Aug) | 0.0% (EZ IP) | −0.1% | M |
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US PPI m/m · core · retail sales · ex-autos · claims · Empire · Philly Fed | +0.5–0.6% · +0.3% · +0.3% · +0.5–0.6% · 199–200k · 10.3–12.1 · 28.2–28.4 | +0.4% · +0.2% · +1.2% · +1.4% · 197k · 7.6 · 37.8 | H |
| Friday 16 – Saturday 17 October | ||||||
| Fri | 01:00 · 03:00 | Thu 10:00 · 12:00 | US business inventories · EIA weekly crude (holiday-shifted) | +0.4% | −3.186m bbl | M |
| Fri | 07:30 · 11:30 · 13:00 | Thu 16:30 · 20:30 · 22:00 | Fed Hammack · RBA conference papers · BoE Bailey · Nagel 13:30 | M | ||
| Fri | 14:30 | Thu 23:30 | Fed Chair Warsh with IMF MD Georgieva, Bangkok (Fed calendar, verified) | H | ||
| Fri | 20:00 · 23:30 | 05:00 · 08:30 | EZ final HICP · core · US import prices | 3.8% · 2.5% · +0.9% | 3.8% · 2.5% · +0.7% | M |
| Sat | 00:15 · 06:30 · 07:00 | Fri 09:15 · 15:30 · 16:00 | US industrial production · CFTC COT (13 Oct) · TIC · monthly opex Fri · Fed blackout begins Sat | +0.4% · 76.5% | 0.0% · 76.3% | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| 18–23 Oct | — | — | RBA's Kent Sun 18 11:00 and Mon 19 10:05 · CN Q3 GDP and activity Mon 19 13:00 (prior 4.3%) · HK closed Mon 19 · PBoC LPR Tue 20 12:00 · India closed Tue 20 · UK labour Tue 20 17:00 · DE ZEW Tue 20 20:00 · French revenue vote (≈Tue 20, unconfirmed) · Netflix, Tesla Wed 21 ≈07:00 · RBA's Hauser Wed 21 09:30 · UK CPI Wed 21 17:00 · BI Wed 21 · NZ Q3 CPI Thu 22 08:45 · BoK, CBRT Thu 22 · AU flash PMIs Fri 23 09:00 · Japan CPI Fri 23 10:30 · euro flash PMIs Fri 23 18:15–19:30 · Moody's France Fri 23 (unverified) | H | ||
| 25–30 Oct | — | — | Europe DST ends and Brazil runoff Sun 25 · Israel election Tue 27 · AU Q3 CPI Wed 28 11:30 · RBNZ Wed 28 12:00 · UK Budget Wed 28 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 | H | ||
| Nov–Jan | — | — | US DST ends Sun 1 Nov · RBA Tue 3 Nov 14:30 · US midterms Tue 3 Nov · Japan closed 3 Nov · Riksbank Wed 4 · BoE Thu 5 Nov 23:00 · Norges Thu 5 · China rare-earth suspension expires 10 Nov · French PLF vote 17 Nov · US funding 11 Dec · US–China truce 10 Jan | H | ||
⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement; the calendar source's impact column does not render. Consensus from ForexFactory and Trading Economics (14 Oct); where they differ the range is shown. TSMC release time and BI, CBRT and BoK times are unconfirmed. From 26 October Europe moves to CET; from 2 November the US moves to EST (AEDT = EST + 16h).
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Fed hike on 28 October | PPI and retail tonight; Warsh Fri 14:30; blackout Sat | 34.4% (futures, 16:25 ET Wed); 34–51% across snapshots | Bear flattener against V030; dollar up against AUD and EUR; CCC wider (supports V017) | 2-year payers; the front end holds the asymmetry |
| 2 | AI-hardware de-rating deepens in the US | TSMC today ≈17:00; SOX six-day losing run; opex Fri | FMS: AI bubble #2 tail risk (23%) | Tech is the FMS's biggest overweight; the book has no equity hedge until No. 030 | V031 Nasdaq-100 put spread (pre-committed, §08); SKEW 154.7 makes outright puts dear |
| 3 | Disorderly rise in long yields | 10-year back through 5.30–5.36%; FMS rotation trigger 5.9% | FMS top tail risk (31%) | Equity multiple compression; short Treasuries is the #2 crowded trade, so a squeeze is the other tail | V030 steepener; low duration |
| 4 | Gulf shipping and Saudi infrastructure | Ship sunk near Hormuz; Aramco building hit; Trump weighing strikes on the Houthis | — | Brent through $107.15–107.33 highs; diesel already at records | V024's residual call; product-crack optionality |
| 5 | Credit stress broadens from CCC to HY | CCC 1,267bp series high; HY +13bp in a week; regional banks Thu–Fri | FMS: hyperscaler credit event 11% | HY back toward 324bp (1 Oct); loan and BDC marks | V017 (High); CDX HY protection |
| 6 | Australian jobs or CPI force November | Labour force today 11:30; Q3 CPI 28 Oct | RBA Nov ≈24–28% | A strong print lifts 3-year yields and helps V006 through the rate channel | V006; AU 3-year payers |
| 7 | French budget and ratings | Revenue vote ≈20 Oct; Moody's 23 Oct (unverified); PLF 17 Nov | — | Spread toward the 146.9bp high; TE-derived Wednesday ≈144bp | V025 |
| 8 | Dollar squeeze against high-yield FX | DXY intraday 102.88, highest since April 2025 | — | AUD back below 0.69; peso and EM carry; AUD is the crowded leveraged long | AUD/USD puts; V023 is cross, not outright |
| 9 | Yen intervention | USD/JPY ≈158.2; Katayama, Bessent, Ueda in Bangkok to 18 Oct | — | A joint statement or operation near 160; carry unwind | Short-dated USD/JPY puts |
| 10 | China growth disappoints despite hot exports | Q3 GDP Mon 19; rare-earth suspension expiry 10 Nov | — | Iron ore below $90; ASX materials and AUD | AUD/CNH; materials inside V006 |
| 11 | Midterms and Fed independence | Midterms 3 Nov; Cook hearing 5 Nov | House D ≈90% (Kalshi/Polymarket) | FMS: Democratic sweep a 5% tail risk | Steepeners; Q4 collars |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,719.54 | 7,702–7,707 (200-day zone) · 7,650 | 7,741 (100d, 12 Oct) · 7,786 (50d) · 7,805 | MAs Investing.com, 12 Oct read; Wednesday's intraday table looks hourly and is not used |
| Nasdaq-100 | ≈29,930 (TE CFD, indicative) | ≈29,500 | 30,067 (200d) · 30,932 (50d; V031's close line) | Cash close not obtained; QQQ −1.97% |
| UST 5s30s · 2s10s | 56bp par (13 Oct) · 42bp | 50 (V030 closes) | 58 (9 Oct) · 64 (7 Oct) · 65 (V030 upgrades, with 30y par > 5.70%) | 14 Oct par not posted |
| UST 2y · 10y · 30y (vendor 14 Oct) | 4.81 · 5.20 · 5.53% | 4.75 · 5.15 · 5.50 | 4.93 (Wed high) · 5.30 · 5.70 (V030 leg) | 10y 5.3645% in the week to 7 Oct, highest since April 2002 (Reuters) |
| OAT–Bund | 139.5bp (12 Oct) | 80 (V025 closes) · 132.5 (9 Oct) | 146.9 (one-year high) | TE-derived Wednesday ≈144.4bp |
| ACGB 10y · 30y | 5.32% · 5.77% | 5.25 · 5.70 | 5.41 · 5.89 (record) | XT futures imply 5.335% |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 102.54 · ≈1.1155 · ≈158.2 | 102.10 · 1.1100 · 157.84 | 102.88 (Wed high) · 1.1250 · 160 | Euro weakest since May 2025 |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | 0.7002 (RBA) · 1.2444 (RBA) | 0.6960 · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.7000–0.7010 · 1.2500 | NY ≈0.697–0.698 |
| Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov) | ≈$106.3 · ≈$95.1 | $105.24 (Wed low) · $102.33 · $86.53–89.53 (V024) | $107.15 (Wed high) · $107.33 (Mon) · $110 | 13 Oct settle $105.69 |
| Gold · Silver | $4,096 · ≈$55.6 | $4,050 · $4,000 | $4,160 · $4,218 | Gold lowest since early August (TE) |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,727.9 | 8,716.6 (9 Oct) · 8,700 | 8,784 · 8,818 · 8,900 (V006 closes) | SPI day settle 8,745 |
| KOSPI · TAIEX · Nikkei | 6,029 · ≈48,626 · 67,744 | 5,911 (13 Oct low) · 48,066 · 67,000 | 6,191 (Wed high) · 49,126 · 69,031 | Prior closes and ranges |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 83 / 316 / 1,267bp (13 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) · HY 305 (to Med on two prints) | HY 324 (1 Oct) · CCC 1,267 (high) | FRED; 14 Oct not posted |
| Bitcoin | ≈$81,700 | $81,000 · $80,000 | $83,350 · $84,000 | No view open |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six research desks ran in parallel from about 06:05 AEDT Thursday. Five returned by about 06:20; the US desk ran to about 07:50 AEDT to capture post-close prints. The lead re-fetched the Fed Rate Monitor (13:15 ET at ≈07:45 AEDT, then 16:25 ET at ≈07:58 AEDT), Investing's Brent and WTI histories, Kitco gold and CoinDesk at about 07:45–07:50 AEDT, and searched for the AP tabulation (not indexed; KRMG returned a client error). Every figure was retrieved on 15 October 2026 (AEDT); nothing is recalled. This edition filed later than the 07:30 target.
Corrections and updates to No. 028
(1) Stoxx 600 Tuesday close (material for the wtd base only): No. 028 printed 635.26 (−0.06%). Wednesday's Irish Times (637.75, +0.43%), TE (638.00, +2.99) and Investing.com's previous close all imply 635.02. Corrected for this edition's week-to-date figure.
(2) Brent December 13 October settled $105.69 (Rigzone; Investing row unchanged on re-read). It replaces the $105.69–106.31 vendor range; the low end of the range, not material.
(3) WTI November 13 October settled $94.14, inside the printed ≈$94.1–94.2.
(4) Fed Rate Monitor: the page's prior-day column for 13 October reads 20.7%, against the 24.1% No. 028 quoted from its 15:45 ET stamp. Same pattern as the 12 October discrepancy; recorded, not changed.
(5) PS rejection motion (not obtained in No. 028): defeated 236–149 on 13 October (LCP).
(6) Westpac-MI consumer sentiment for October was released 5–6 October (TE), as No. 028's data trail said.
(7) Discharged: official par for 13 October (V030 56bp); FRED OAS for 13 October (83/316/1,267); ICE Brent 13 October settle; CPI actuals from bls.gov; ASX close, RBA 4pm table and SPI settle for 14 October; ASML results (6-K).
Conflicts and how they were resolved
US closes: AP Wednesday not readable; levels built from AP Tuesday plus Investrade changes, matching Investrade's rounded levels and settled ETFs within 0.1pp. Desk 6's TE CFD levels (S&P 7,701.87–7,708) and an IBTimes prior of 7,805.65 were rejected under the cash-beats-CFD and AP rules. Fed October odds: 37% (CME 14:26 ET), 40.2% (Investing 13:15 ET), 34.4% (Investing 16:25 ET), 41% and 51% (two Reuters prints), 46% (Bloomberg), 47.5% (Polymarket); 34.4%, the latest post-close read, used consistently. 2-year move: TE +2bp, Investrade +3bp and +7.2bp in the same piece; shown as +2/+3 with the intraday high. ASX 200: ABC and Mining.com.au 8,727.9; TE's table 8,673.80 is a CFD and rejected. ACGB: TE levels and ASX futures settles agree on direction (+2 to +3.5bp); TE's change column and a Market Index intraday note (−7bp) disagree and are rejected. KOSPI: Aju 6,028.8 ties; ad-hoc-news 6,009 does not. Brent 14 Oct: Investing row 106.56 equals Reuters' 13:25 ET mark, so it may be an intraday capture; Investrade 106.06; quoted as a range. EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD (NY), KRW, INR: TE pages carry different values in different places; ranges shown. ASML Europe: +1.2% (Irish Times, MarketScreener) vs +2.2% (TE); direction only. Aramco building: Dhahran (Fox, GEF) vs Riyadh (Gulf News, Khaleej); both reported. Crypto total cap: $2.75tn (15:48 UTC), $2.80tn (17:33 UTC), $2.86tn (untimed); CoinGecko's positive 24h percentages contradict all other sources and are rejected. FMS sample: 161 managers/$453bn in this cycle's sources vs 185/$512bn printed in No. 028; unresolved.
Single-source and unverified items
BAC and MS figures (press reports of the releases, not the 8-Ks) · Bowman remark (TE) · Collins (headline) · Beige Book (secondary summaries; the PDF did not fetch) · Lagarde quote (TE; no text or venue) · Bailey and Pill remarks (dates unconfirmed) · TAIEX level (derived from a headline percentage) · NZX 50, NZD (single source) · IEA Dated Brent ≈$134 (as written, not cross-checked) · platinum, COMEX copper, iron ore, coal, lithium, uranium, TTF (TE) · Hormuz counts (stale, 30 Sep and 7 Oct) · Riyadh NOTAM · Saudi 1.2mb/d plan (Rigzone) · rare-earth and Section 301 expiry dates (secondary) · BoK prediction-market odds · TSMC consensus (LSEG via TrendForce; Reuters via Yahoo) · Moody's France 23 October (no primary calendar; AFT ratings page stale).
Not obtained
AP Wednesday tabulation · official par row for 14 October · a settled Fed Rate Monitor read · ICE and NYMEX settles for 14 October · FRED OAS for 14 October · OAT–Bund dedicated series for 13 October · a VIX close and VIX3M · the Nasdaq-100 cash close · All Ords, CSI 300, HS Tech, IBEX, FTSE MIB · the overnight SPI · post-CPI RBA pricing · Cotality preliminary clearance · Hormuz daily counts after 7 October · CoinShares weekly · SpotGamma and Citadel opex notional · the September US budget statement · ECB October probability · Lane's "material tightening" source text · UK Budget confirmation of 28 October.
Friday's first verification targets
(1) Official par for 14 and 15 October: V030's next marks. (2) FRED OAS for 14 October: V017. (3) OAT–Bund dedicated series for 13 and 14 October (V025). (4) ICE Brent December settle for 14 October and the restatement check (V024). (5) AP tabulations for 14 and 15 October, and correct the Wednesday closes to AP if they differ. (6) AU labour force actuals, ASX close, RBA 4pm table (V006, V023). (7) TSMC results, then open or defer V031 under the rule written in §08. (8) A settled Fed Rate Monitor read after PPI and retail sales.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- BLS — CPI, September 2026 · Investrade — market review, 14 Oct · SPY · QQQ · DIA · IWM · BAC · MS · ASML · MU · TheStreet — 14 Oct · Reuters via GV Wire · Schwab · Yahoo — VIX
- FinanceFeeds — BAC and MS · Quartz — Morgan Stanley · ASML 6-K · ts2.tech — Barclays downgrades
- US Treasury — par yield curve · TE — US yields · Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Reuters via Investing — CPI reaction · Rio Times — Polymarket/Kalshi · FXStreet — Barkin · investingLive — Beige Book · ForexFactory — Beige Book · Fed — October calendar · TE — US calendar · DeFi Rate — midterms
- CFTC — TFF · BofA via Finvaulta — flows · BofA via Finvaulta — FMS · investingLive — FMS crowded trade · Reuters via Investing — Lipper · ICI MMF · AAII · SKEW · Fear & Greed replica · put/call · Hindenburg · breadth · SquawkFlow — opex · FactSet — 9 Oct
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · centralbank.watch — RBA · The New Daily — bank calls · Tradingpedia — PBoC fix · PoundSterlingLive — BoE · IMF — Annual Meetings
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · TE — Bund · OAT · BTP · Gilt · JGB · ACGB · TE — DXY · EUR · AUD · CNY · TE — ECB
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- ABC — markets live, 14 Oct · Mining.com.au — ASX close · Market Index — live, 14 Oct · ASX — futures EOD, 14 Oct · TE — AU employment · Westpac — labour force preview · TE — consumer confidence
- Nikkei Indexes · IndexBox — TOPIX · Aju Press — KOSPI · Focus Taiwan — TAIEX · Armenpress — Asian closes · TE — China CPI · China PPI · ING via FXStreet — China trade · TE — India · TrendForce — TSMC · ASML — Q3 release
Europe and geopolitics
- Irish Times — European close · MarketScreener — Europe · TE — FTSE · CAC · DAX · RTTNews · LCP — rejection motion · Newsquawk · ForexFactory — this week · next week
- Fox — 14 Oct live · Reuters via Korea Times — oil · Gulf News — Aramco · France 24 · Meduza — refineries · FXStreet — rare earths · GEF — Hormuz tracker
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- IEA — Oil Market Report, October · Rigzone — 13 Oct settles · Investing — Brent history · WTI history · TE — Brent · TE — gas · OilPrice — Aramco · Admiral — EIA preview
- Kitco — gold · TE — gold · silver · Westmetall — copper · FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS
- CoinGecko · CryptoTimes — CMC levels · CryptoBriefing · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · Coinalyze — funding