The bottom line
- Services prices printed their highest since July 2022 and the long end sold off for a second session, putting V030 back in the money. ISM services prices paid rose to 74.0 from 72.6 while the headline slipped to 54.9, and the S&P Global services PMI final hit 58.8, a five-year high, with input costs rising at the fastest pace since November 2022. Both verified against the issuers. On vendor closes the curve sold off from the long end: 2y 4.83% (unch), 5y 5.07% (+1bp), 10y 5.32% (+4bp), 30y 5.67% (+4bp), against Friday's official par. That takes 5s30s to about 60bp from 57bp. Friday left one basis point of margin over the trigger; Monday widened it. The official par curve for 5 October posts about 09:00 AEDT, after this edition, so the mark is provisional. The 30-year is three basis points from the 5.70% level that, with 5s30s through 65bp, upgrades V030 to Med. Three US coupon auctions, $119bn in total, land between Wednesday and Friday morning Sydney time.
- The euro broke to a 17-month low on a second government's politics, and the ECB speakers said nothing about spreads. Spain's Sánchez called a snap election for 29 November; EUR/USD printed 1.1161 in Asia and the CAC 40 fell 0.80% to a six-month low while the Stoxx 600 rose about 0.4% on banks. Nagel spoke on Monday and said there were "so far no clear signs" of second-round inflation effects; Lane said energy costs "may limit need for ECB action". Neither mentioned France, sovereign spreads or the TPI, which is a second refusal in five days to name a backstop. V025 cannot be marked: the dedicated OAT–Bund series has not updated past 130.3bp on 1 October, and other reads span 137–152bp on different benchmarks. Conviction stays at Med.
- US equities broke through the 7,725 call wall and closed 0.32% below the 7,800 level that closes our hedge. The S&P rose +0.68% to 7,775.30, the Nasdaq-100 +0.9% to a record close of 31,076, the Dow +0.18% and the Russell 2000 ≈+0.85% (late), on the same day the 10-year made a cycle high. The leadership was chips and deals: TSMC at a record on Terafab talks, PTC +34–36% on a $22.6bn cash bid from Schneider Electric. Asia led the move: Nikkei +2.40% to 69,946.86 and the TAIEX +2.55% to a record 49,712.04. One free gamma source now puts the call wall at 7,800, exactly V028's closing trigger. V028 stays at Low and is now losing, 0.41% above against its 7,743.41 reference.
- Friday's credit print did not deliver the configuration we flagged, but the tail is still not repairing. On FRED's 2 October observation, HY tightened 14bp to 310bp, CCC 13bp to 1,202bp and IG 1bp to 85bp. The double-break configuration (IG widening faster than CCC ÷ 14.13) did not appear. The ratio still edged up to 14.14×, because IG tightened proportionally more than CCC. The year's largest financing is the warning: Paramount Skydance's 8-year notes traded near 96 cents on their first day, a loss of more than $100m for buyers, inside a package of $30bn IG, about $12.4bn HY and $7.5bn of loans. V017 holds at Med; the closing condition (CCC inside 1,050bp with IG flat or tighter) is 152bp away.
- Houthi-aligned media claimed strikes on Ras Tanura, Rabigh and Saudi Arabia's export pipeline. Nobody official has confirmed them, and oil still fell on the day. The claims began at 14:32 UTC Monday and were followed by reports of explosions north of Riyadh and suspended flights at its airport. Every report traces to Sabereen, Fars or Tasnim, and no Saudi or Aramco statement was found. Against them: Kpler shows Hormuz crude flows of 19.5–22.5 mb/d on 27–29 September, above pre-war, and Aramco cut November Arab Light to Asia by $5, the lowest since 2020, which is how a seller behaves when it has barrels to place. Brent December settled $100.32 (−$1.93 / −1.89%) and WTI November $89.43 (−$1.68 / −1.84%). V024 stays a residual call spread; the band is far away.
- The Australian 10-year premium over Treasuries, carried for weeks, reversed on Monday. ACGB 10s rallied 3bp to 5.30% in a holiday-thin Sydney session; Treasuries sold off +4bp overnight; the derived spread is about −2bp, from +5bp on Friday and +15bp on Thursday. The ASX was flat at 8,686.40 and the Melbourne Institute gauge rose only 0.3% m/m, the smallest in three months. November RBA pricing sits at 18%, and the RBA's diary has no policy speaker before the minutes on 13 October. V006 stays Low and in the money (+3.55% from 9,005.9). Big-four mortgage pass-through lands Friday, and the first post-hike consumer sentiment read is at 10:30 today.
Overnight recap
United States — hot prices, higher yields, higher stocks
US futures opened soft on the Hormuz headlines (S&P −0.17% at 08:43 ET) and the services data landed at 09:45 and 10:00 ET. ISM services 54.9 against 55.4 in August, with prices paid 74.0, the highest since July 2022, employment back above 50 at 50.1 and export orders down ten points to 46.9; ISM's chair said fuel costs were cited twice as often as any other issue. The S&P Global services PMI final was 58.8, its best in more than five years, with input-cost inflation the fastest since November 2022. Cleveland Fed nowcasts carried from 2 October have core PCE at 3.02% for September and 3.10% for October. Read here as the inflation leg of Friday's soft-labour, sticky-inflation print reasserting itself, because the long end did the selling: on vendor closes the 10-year rose +4bp to 5.32% and the 30-year +4bp to 5.67%, with the 2-year unch. A widely syndicated headline called the 10-year move a "fresh 2002 high"; that is headline-only and is not adopted.
Stocks rallied anyway. S&P 500 7,775.30 (+52.58, +0.68%), Nasdaq-100 31,076 (+0.9%), a record close (the Composite's close was not settled at filing; late reads +0.7% to +0.9%), Dow ≈51,268 (+0.18%), Russell 2000 ≈2,857 (≈+0.85% (late)), VIX 15.55 (+1.6% (14:10 ET)). The S&P close is corroborated two ways (an index print and the settled-SPY route agree to 0.003%); the Nasdaq-100 likewise (31,076 against 31,080 from QQQ). The Dow is a vendor's +91 points against +0.20% from settled DIA; the Russell is from a late-session IWM print; the VIX is a 14:10 ET read. The AP tabulation had not posted at filing. Movers: PTC +34–36% on Schneider Electric's $205-a-share cash offer (Schneider −9.97% in Paris); TSMC's ADR to a record and Intel −1.5% to −3.3% after Musk confirmed early-stage talks for TSMC to join Terafab; SpaceX about +5% on a Morgan Stanley $300 target; Vistra up on a reported ~$4bn federal loan package for nuclear upgrades; Qualcomm filed a 25m-share offering; C.H. Robinson −7–12% on selling Global Forwarding to RXO; Nike −2.9% after S&P cut it to A. Brazilian ADRs rallied on the election: XP +18–34%, Itaú +13–17% intraday. No Fed official spoke on Monday (verified on the Fed's speeches index); Williams and Bowman are scheduled today.
Europe — the euro takes the fiscal story
Spain's Prime Minister Sánchez called a snap election for 29 November after parliament rejected two housing decrees. With France already the market's problem, EUR/USD fell to 1.1161 in Asian trading, a 17-month low, and was about 1.12 late; the DXY touched about 102.5, its highest since April 2025 on one vendor. The CAC 40 lost 0.80% to 7,834.30, a six-month low; the Stoxx 600 recovered from a four-month intraday low to close about +0.4% on banks; the FTSE 100 rose 0.34% to 10,497.94 on the weak euro; the DAX +0.1%, the FTSE MIB +0.49%, the IBEX about +1.1% despite the election call, and the SMI +0.06%. Schneider's 9.97% fall weighed on Paris. Data: Sentix 2.7 against 5.0 expected; composite PMI final 53.1, a 41-month high, with prices accelerating. The OAT 10-year traded about 4.87–4.92%, near its highest since 2008; Bunds rose about 5bp to 3.50% and BTPs 2bp to 4.63%. Nagel in Sorrento: no clear second-round effects, the ECB "needed to be flexible", and higher yields make bonds more attractive to reserve managers, though gold diversification is still warranted. Lane: a "middle path" remains appropriate and the fiscal impulse turns negative in 2027–28. Neither addressed France.
Asia — the payroll relief trade, one session late
Asia took Friday's dovish read of payrolls on Monday. Nikkei +2.40% to 69,946.86 (exchange index page) and TOPIX +1.33%, on Tokyo Electron +5.5%, Advantest +4.3% and SoftBank +3%. TAIEX +2.55% to a record 49,712.04 with TSMC +3.0% and foreign buying of NT$71.9bn. India ended a four-session slide: Sensex +0.66% to 72,382.47 and Nifty +0.60% to 22,555.75, two days before an expected RBI hike. Singapore +0.52%. The rate-sensitive markets did not join: ASX 200 8,686.40 (+0.05%) on a holiday-thinned day, NZX 50 −0.08%, and the Hang Seng roughly flat with property and financials lower. Korea and the mainland were shut. JGBs: 10-year about 3.10%, 30-year about 4.24% (+3bp), above its carried all-time high on one source.
Brazil, the Gulf and Ukraine
Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro about 47%, Lula about 45% with ~99% counted; runoff Sunday 25 October. The real rallied about 4.3% to 4.99 per dollar, a 17-month high, and the PL is set to be the largest party in the Chamber. The Gulf: Iran's parliament speaker said on Sunday the strait "will not open until our seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met"; an IRGC boat hailed a tanker 11nm north of Khasab on Monday and ordered it to turn back. From 14:32 UTC Monday, Houthi-aligned outlets claimed missile strikes on Ras Tanura (550k bpd), fires at the Rabigh refinery near Jeddah and on the export pipeline, and then explosions north of Riyadh with flights suspended at the airport. None of this is confirmed by Saudi Arabia or Aramco, and a similar Houthi claim on a Riyadh-area Aramco site on 4 October was disputed by Riyadh as "misleading". Separately, the US is reported to be providing planning and intelligence support to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. Ukraine: Germany's Merz announced more than €1.3bn of aid and a drone deal in Kyiv on Sunday; no Ukrainian refinery strike on Russia was confirmed for Monday.
This morning's setup
Bitcoin about ≈$85,600, total crypto cap about $3.0tn and dominance 57.3%; BTC ETFs took +$189.9m on 2 October while ETH ETFs lost $37.4m. Funding is mildly positive and liquidations small. The region opens with Korea back, the mainland still shut until Thursday, the AUD near 0.694 and no RBA fix since Friday. Today: Westpac sentiment 10:30, Ueda 17:35, Mann 19:30, US trade balance 23:30, Williams and Bowman overnight, and the 3-year auction at 04:00 Wednesday.
Market dashboard
Week to date — cross-asset change, Monday 5 October session
| Equities | Close | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,775.30 | +0.68% | Corroborated two ways: an index print and the settled-SPY route (7,775.50; SPY +0.68% stamped 16:00 ET) agree to 0.003%. AP tabulation not posted at filing. Through the 7,725 call wall; 0.32% below 7,800, V028's closing level and the new single-source call wall |
| Nasdaq Composite · Nasdaq-100 | — · 31,076 | +0.7–0.9% · +0.9% | ⭐ NDX record close: a vendor print of 31,076 and the settled-QQQ route (31,080, QQQ +0.88% stamped 16:00 ET) agree to 0.01%. Composite close not settled at filing |
| Dow Jones | ≈51,268 | +0.18% | The sign flipped four times intraday across sources; the close settles it |
| Russell 2000 · VIX | ≈2,857 · 15.55 | ≈+0.85% (late) · +1.6% (14:10 ET) | VIX3M 18.01 at Friday's close, VIX/VIX3M 0.85: contango, day 124 |
| Stoxx 600 | ≈633.9 | +0.4% | Percentage corroborated on three outlets; the level is derived and not published as a close. Recovered from a four-month intraday low on banks |
| CAC 40 | 7,834.30 | −0.80% | Chain-ties to 7,897.19. Six-month low; Schneider −9.97% on the PTC bid |
| DAX · FTSE MIB · IBEX · SMI | — · 50,731 · ≈19,300 · 13,668.50 | +0.1% · +0.49% · +1.12% · +0.06% | DAX level withheld: the vendor's level implies a prior 48 points off Friday's verified close. MIB and IBEX levels look rounded and may be late intraday |
| FTSE 100 | 10,497.94 | +0.34% | Verified close report; chain-ties to 10,461.95. FTSE 250 −0.3% |
| Nikkei 225 · TOPIX | 69,946.86 · 4,145.22 | +2.40% · +1.33% | Nikkei from the exchange's own page; the dated archive has not rolled. TOPIX single-source. Nikkei Semis +2.63%; record is 73,007 (June) |
| Hang Seng | ≈23,970–24,040 | −0.1% to +0.3% | ⚠ Unresolved: one vendor's level does not reconcile with its own change; the wire says "ticks down". Property and financials lower, PCB names higher |
| TAIEX | 49,712.04 | +2.55% | Record close; turnover NT$1.15tn; TSMC +3.0% to NT$2,575, about 600 of the 1,236 points |
| KOSPI · Shanghai | 7,003.74 · 3,842.19 | shut · shut | Korea reopens today and shuts Friday (Hangul Day); the mainland reopens Thursday |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 72,382.47 · 22,555.75 | +0.66% · +0.60% | Corroborated; first gain in five sessions |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,686.40 | +0.05% | +4.30pts; chain-ties to 8,682.10, corroborated. Four sectors up (health care +0.74%), seven down (discretionary −0.88%, IT −0.48%). Breadth 416 / 557 (single source) |
| NZX 50 · STI | ≈13,669.53 · 5,664.33 | −0.08% · +0.52% | Both single-source; NZX derived from the vendor's change |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST 2y · 5y · 10y · 30y (vendor close) | 4.83% · 5.07% · 5.32% · 5.67% | unch · +1bp · +4bp · +4bp | ⚠ Vendor closes against Friday's official par (2y 4.83 · 5y 5.06 · 10y 5.28 · 30y 5.63). The 5 October par row posts ~09:00 AEDT. Corroborated on the 10-year only |
| 5s30s · 2s10s | 60bp · 49bp | from 57 · 45bp | Derived from vendor levels. V030 back in the money; ten basis points or so above its 50bp stop, provisional until the par row posts |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.43% · 5.93% | +5 · +2bp | Single source. The intraday records (5.44% on 28 Sep, 6.029–6.04% on 1 Oct) stand |
| Bund · OAT · BTP 10y | 3.50% · 4.87% · 4.63% | +4.5 · ~0 · +2bp | Single-source levels rounded to 2dp, so ±1bp. Spain 10y 4.07–4.09% |
| OAT–Bund | 130.3bp (1 Oct) | not updated | ⚠ The dedicated series has not posted past 1 October. Other reads: ≈137bp (one vendor's legs, 5 Oct), ≈146bp (news, 5 Oct), ≈152bp (1–2 Oct peak). Different benchmarks; not spliced |
| JGB 2y · 10y · 30y | 1.92 · 3.10 · 4.24% | −1 · −1 · +3bp | Single source. The 30y is above the 4.22% all-time high carried here |
| ACGB 10y · 2y · 3y | 5.30% · 4.92 · 4.86 | −3 · 0 · −2bp | 10y verified on the vendor; 2y and 3y carry no timestamp. AU–US 10y about −2bp, reversed from +5bp |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS | 85 · 310 · 1,202bp (2 Oct) | −1 · −14 · −13bp | ⭐ Verified on FRED's text series. CCC/IG 14.14×, a new high in the window, because IG tightened proportionally more. HY–IG 225bp. The 5 October set publishes tonight |
| MOVE | 107.29 (2 Oct) | — | ⚠ Now unverified: the page's own prior is inconsistent. Last clean print 101.82 (28 Sep) |
| FX | Level | 1d | Basis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 102.15 | +0.21% | late NY vendor | Touched about 102.5 intraday, highest since April 2025 (one vendor) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1211 | −0.40% | late NY vendor | 17-month low of 1.1161 in Asia, two outlets. Spain's snap election plus France |
| USD/JPY · GBP/USD | 157.90 · 1.3224 | +0.03% · −0.13% | vendor intraday | GBP single-source |
| AUD/USD · NZD/USD | 0.6960 · 0.5589 | +0.05% · −0.45% | late NY vendor · intraday | No RBA fix on Monday. The AUD traded as low as ~0.6936 in the Sydney afternoon and recovered in New York. NZD at its lowest since November 2025 (earlier read) |
| AUD/NZD | not marked | — | RBA table | ⚠ No RBA fix on Monday; vendor legs were struck at different times, so no cross is derived |
| USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 1.4267 · 0.8303 | +0.09% · +0.18% | vendor intraday | Single source |
| USD/BRL · USD/MXN · USD/INR | 4.988 · 18.07 · 96.49 | −4.3% · −0.5% · +0.37% | vendor intraday | BRL a 17-month high on the first-round result. MXN conflicts with the vendor's own text (~18.4). RBI reported selling dollars |
| USD/CNY | 6.7046 (30 Sep) | — | onshore close | No fix until Thursday 8 October |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent DECEMBER (CBZ26) | $100.32 | −$1.93 / −1.89% | Settle from a Reuters report updated 18:55 UTC; chain-ties to Friday's $102.25, and a vendor continuous quote at $100.26 corroborates. Fell despite the unconfirmed Saudi strike claims, on the Aramco price cut and Gulf export data |
| WTI NOVEMBER (CLX26) | $89.43 | −$1.68 / −1.84% | Front month still November. Brent Dec – WTI Nov about $10.89, front-versus-front and not like-for-like |
| Aramco Arab Light OSP to Asia (Nov) | −$5.00 | cut | Lowest since 2020, two sources. A seller with barrels to place |
| Henry Hub · TTF | $3.02–3.06 · €73.19 | +0.9% · −2.1% | TTF single source; EU storage ~72% against an 87% five-year average. Qatar's force majeure on European LNG extended through December (single source) |
| Gold (spot) | $4,141.50 | +0.04% | Kitco bid 15:44 ET. Flat while the DXY rose 0.21% and the 10-year made a cycle high |
| Silver · Platinum · Palladium | $60.89 · $1,709 · $1,160 | +1.02% · +1.06% · +0.7% | Kitco, 13:58 ET |
| Copper LME cash / 3M · stocks | $14,355 / $14,320 · 248,650t | 2 Oct | 5 October settlements not yet posted. COMEX about $6.59/lb (+1.5%, one source) |
| Aluminium LME cash | $3,109.50 | −$10.50 (2 Oct) | Stocks 240,375t |
| Iron ore 62% CFR | ≈$91.45/t | +0.1% | ⚠ Vendor index on a thin, China-closed market; not a Dalian or SGX benchmark |
| Bitcoin | ≈$85,600 | +0.4% to +0.9% (24h) | Two vendors, ~15:00–17:00 UTC Monday |
| ETH · SOL · XRP · BNB | $2,709.81 · $120.06 · $1.50 · $787.34 | 24h | One vendor. Total cap $3.004tn, BTC dominance 57.3% |
| Crypto ETF flows (2 Oct) | BTC +$189.9m · ETH −$37.4m | verified | Monday's two gaps closed. 5 October is a placeholder, not a zero |
| Crypto derivatives | OI BTC $28.3bn · ETH $18.6bn | funding +0.006% / +0.004% | Per asset; the market-wide total is $72.0bn. 24h liquidations $92.5m. Calm |
Conventions: 1d against Friday 2 October's verified close. US Treasury levels on Monday are vendor closes and are compared with Friday's official par (par/CMT runs 1–2bp from on-the-run vendor quotes). FX rows are vendor intraday composites, not the RBA fix or a New York 17:00 close, unless marked. Crude settles name their contract. "≈" marks a derived or approximate value; "—" means not obtained or withheld, and §13 says which.
What is driving markets
1. The long end is priced off supply and term premium, and Monday added the inflation leg
Friday tested the theme against a soft labour print; Monday tested it against hot prices, and the long end sold off both times. ISM services prices 74.0, the highest since July 2022; the S&P Global services input-cost gauge at its fastest since November 2022; Cleveland Fed core PCE nowcast at 3.10% for October. The curve on vendor closes: 2y unch, 5y +1bp, 10y +4bp, 30y +4bp, putting the 10-year at 5.32% and 5s30s at about 60bp. Over two sessions since payrolls the 10-year is up roughly 8bp (5.24% on 1 Oct to 5.32%) while October hike odds fell from 36–39% to 26.4%. The policy path and the long end are moving in opposite directions, which is what this theme predicts. The same pressure shows elsewhere: the JGB 30-year at about 4.24%, above its carried record on one source; the gilt 10-year back to 5.43%; Bunds +5bp on a day the ECB's Nagel played down second-round effects. And the supply is concentrated: $58bn of 3-year, $39bn of 10-year and $22bn of 30-year paper between Wednesday 04:00 and Friday 04:00 AEDT, with the FOMC minutes landing an hour after the 10-year.
2. Equities ran through the call wall, and the hedge is now losing
Monday's edition cut V028 to Low because the CTA selling capacity in its rationale had been spent (CTAs −0.80 SD from +2.35 SD). The index has now done what that implied. The S&P closed 7,775.30, through the 7,725 call wall it sat on Friday, and 0.32% below the 7,800 level where two consecutive closes end the view. The rally ignored a cycle-high 10-year and was led by semiconductors and M&A (Schneider–PTC $22.6bn; TSMC on Terafab), and Asia had already run the same trade (Nikkei +2.40%, TAIEX record). One free source now puts the call wall at 7,800, the gamma flip at 7,676 and dealers long gamma, which would dampen moves around current levels if right; this desk rejected the gamma sign on Monday as irreconcilable across sources and does not rely on it now. Breadth has not been re-measured since Friday (45.70% above the 200-day; BofA cites about 400 members below their 50-day). The buyback window reopens on 15 October.
3. Credit: the double-break did not come, and the tail did not heal
Monday's edition named one configuration that would fire both of V017's break legs at once: IG widening by more than CCC ÷ 14.13. The 2 October print, read from FRED's own text series, did the opposite. HY tightened 14bp to 310bp, CCC 13bp to 1,202bp, IG 1bp to 85bp. That was a broad relief day in line with equities after payrolls. But the CCC/IG ratio still rose, to 14.14×, the highest in the window, because a 1bp move on an 85bp base is proportionally larger than 13bp on 1,202. Since 25 September: IG +4bp, HY +17bp, CCC +74bp. The supply story has a name now: Paramount Skydance's $52bn package ($30bn of IG across eight tranches, about $12.4bn HY, $7.5bn of loans; IG books above $109bn), whose 8-year notes traded near 96 cents on their first day. Buyers lost more than $100m on the largest financing of the year, and the HY gap on 1 October coincided with it. Read here as supply indigestion rather than default stress, in line with Goldman's description, because the IG book was 3.6 times covered.
4. Oil: claimed strikes against measured flows, and the seller is cutting price
The G7's 100m-barrel release and Friday's $7.77 fall in the diesel crack set the theme on Monday: the policy risk sits in the crack, not the flat price. Monday added two pieces of evidence on opposite sides. Against supply: from 14:32 UTC, Houthi-aligned outlets claimed strikes on Ras Tanura, fires at Rabigh and at the export pipeline, then explosions north of Riyadh with airport flights suspended. No Saudi or Aramco confirmation exists, and the 4 October claim on a Riyadh-area site was disputed by Riyadh. For supply: Kpler measured 19.5–22.5 mb/d through Hormuz on 27–29 September, above pre-war; Saudi exports were 6.9 mb/d in September against 2.45 mb/d in August (one source); and Aramco cut its November Arab Light price to Asia by $5, the lowest since 2020. Brent December settled $100.32 (−$1.93 / −1.89%). The US SPR exchange bids are due today; the SPR held 283.8m barrels on 25 September, the lowest since 1982.
5. Europe: the currency joins the spread
For two weeks the French problem showed up in OAT–Bund and the CAC while the euro held near 1.125. On Monday it reached the currency. Spain's snap election (29 November) on top of France took EUR/USD to a 17-month low of 1.1161, the CAC to a six-month low, and Spanish 10s to about 65bp over Bunds. The ECB's two speakers, Nagel and Lane, talked about energy and second-round effects and said nothing about spreads; one news analysis argued the TPI cannot be used for France while it sits in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (analysis, not ECB policy). Italy's request to build inflation into the fiscal rules goes to Ecofin on Friday. ECB October pricing is contested: 8% for a hike on one tracker against about 0.28 of a hike on a bank desk's read, after Lane's "may limit need for ECB action".
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing — implied probabilities by meeting, and the venue spread
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (AEDT) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0 | Thu 29 Oct 05:00 (27–28 Oct meeting) · minutes Thu 8 Oct 05:00 · blackout from Sat 17 Oct | October hike 26.4% on futures (an intraday snapshot stamped 11:25 ET, after the ISM release; the settled refresh had not posted) against 17% on Polymarket. December: 64.5% one hike / 21.3% two = 85.8% at least one (same snapshot). The previous-week column on the monitor shows 74.6% for October before payrolls | Hawkish, pushed to Dec |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 | 18% hike / 81% hold, about 20bp over three meetings, unchanged. No policy speaker until 18 Oct | Tightening bias |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep | Fri 30 Oct 00:15 · accounts Thu 8 Oct 22:30 | ⚠ Contested: 8% for October on one tracker; about 0.28 of a hike (from ~0.75) on a bank desk. December 80.6% cumulative on the tracker; 0.89 hikes on the desk. Lane: energy and higher yields "may limit need for ECB action" | December over October |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov 23:00 + MPR | 85% hike; about 99bp over nine meetings (no timestamp). Mann today 19:30; Greene, Pill, Lombardelli Thursday | Hawkish |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 (hawkish dissents) | Fri 30 Oct + Outlook Report (meeting 29–30) · Ueda speaks today 17:35 | ⚠ The carried 27% could not be refreshed; one 29 Sep read had ~36% for back-to-back hikes; MUFG expects December. Uchida: AI is "a large positive demand shock that has lifted prices" | Gradual; October live |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp Sep | Wed 28 Oct 12:00 | About 59bp of tightening on one tracker with an unclear horizon (the tracker itself flags bank-bill overstatement). NZD at its lowest since Nov 2025 | Removing stimulus |
| RBI | 5.25% | Held four reviews | Wed 7 Oct 15:30 (10:00 IST) · presser 17:30 | 25bp hike to 5.50% is consensus: 8 of 10 in one poll, ~60% in Reuters'. CPI 4.82%, WPI 9.92%, rupee ~96.5 | Hiking |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00 / 3.50% | Unchanged 16 months | LPR Tue 20 Oct 12:15 · first fix since 30 Sep on Thu 8 Oct | Shut until Thursday | On hold |
| BoC · SNB | 2.25% · 0.00% | — | BoC Thu 29 Oct 00:45 · SNB Thu 10 Dec 19:30 | Not refreshed | On hold |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Norges +25bp 24 Sep | Wed 4 Nov 19:30 · Thu 5 Nov 20:00 | Not refreshed | Neutral · hawkish |
| NBP · NBR · BCRP | 3.75% · 6.50% · 4.25% | — | This week; days unconfirmed | ING expects Poland to hold; Romania and Peru long on hold | Holds expected |
| BoK · BI · CBRT | 3.00% · 5.75% · 37.00% | — | BoK Thu 22 Oct · BI 21 Oct · CBRT 22 Oct | Not refreshed | Hold · hold · easing bias |
| Banxico · BCB | 6.50% · 13.75% | Brazil cut 16 Sep | Banxico Fri 6 Nov 06:00 · Brazil date unverified | BRL +4.3% on the first round; IPCA Friday | Easing |
Fed: four speakers before the minutes. Nobody spoke on Monday, so the Committee's reaction to +29,000 payrolls and a 74.0 services prices index is still unrevealed. Williams (09:05 ET today), Bowman, Schmid and Logan are scheduled across Tuesday and Wednesday (two calendars disagree on Schmid's day), then the minutes of the 15–16 September meeting at 05:00 AEDT Thursday. The pricing moved back toward a hike on the services data: the monitor's October hike odds went from 23.0% on Friday's settled read to 26.4% on Monday, while Polymarket held at 17%. Sell-side calls dated after payrolls cluster on December (JPMorgan's Feroli: it "would now take a very strong CPI to make the October meeting live"); Goldman's move to December predates payrolls and is not a reaction to them. The September CPI is Wednesday 14 October, 23:30 AEDT, confirmed on the BLS schedule.
ECB: two speakers, no spreads. Nagel in Sorrento and Lane in his keynote both argued for patience, with Lane adding that the fiscal impulse turns negative in 2027–28 and higher borrowing costs "may limit need for ECB action". Neither spoke about France or the TPI. Moulin's line that France risks "being strangled by interest rates" is the closest any ECB official came. The accounts on Thursday are the next read.
BoJ: Ueda today. The Governor speaks at 17:35 AEDT, after a 7–2 hike with two hawkish dissents, Uchida's AI-demand remark and the weak-yen message from Washington. A 30-year JGB at about 4.24% and Thursday's 30-year auction make it the week's long-end event in Asia. The October pricing carried at 27% is stale and labelled so.
Regional briefs
United States
The services sector is running hot on prices, and the long end is taking the hint. ISM services printed 54.9 against 55.4 in August and a 55.0–55.4 consensus range, so the headline was soft by a few tenths. The components were not: prices paid 74.0, the highest since July 2022, from 72.6; business activity 56.5 from 61.7; new orders 59.8; employment 50.1 from 47.8, back above 50; new export orders 46.9 from 56.3. ISM's chair said fuel costs were cited twice as often as any other single issue. The S&P Global services PMI final was 58.8, the strongest in more than five years, with input-cost inflation the fastest since November 2022; its chief economist wrote that concerns about an economy running too hot "will be fueled by the survey's price gauges". Both releases verified against the issuers. Equities ignored it: the S&P 500 closed 7,775.30 (+0.68%) and the Nasdaq-100 +0.9% to a record 31,076, while the 10-year closed about 5.32% after an intraday 5.35% that one vendor headline calls the highest since April 2002 (headline only). Fiscal and legal: government funding runs to 11 December; the Supreme Court's October Term opened Monday with a climate-liability case and no tariff or Fed-removal case on the opening docket; the US–China "30-for-30" tariff truce covers about $60bn of goods and expires 10 January 2027 with no effective date set. Deals: Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC for $205 a share in cash, about $22.6bn (PTC +34–36%, Schneider −9.97% in Paris), and C.H. Robinson is selling its Global Forwarding unit to RXO. Q3 earnings start Tuesday 13 October with JPMorgan at about 07:00 ET.
Euro area
France and now Spain: the euro took the fiscal story that the spread charts have been telling for a fortnight. EUR/USD printed a 17-month low of 1.1161 in Asian trading Monday and was around 1.12 late, on two outlets. Two things drove it. Spain's Prime Minister Sánchez called a snap general election for 29 November after parliament rejected two housing decrees, corroborated across three outlets; Spanish 10s traded 4.07–4.09%, about 65bp over Bunds. And France kept bleeding: the CAC 40 fell 0.80% to 7,834.30, a six-month low, while the Stoxx 600 rose about 0.4% on banks and the FTSE 100 0.34%. ECB policymaker Moulin warned France risks "being strangled by interest rates". The data were firm: composite PMI final 53.1, a 41-month high, with price gauges accelerating; services 53.0 unrevised; Spain services 58.3 against 56.8 expected; but Sentix fell to 2.7 against 5.0 expected and 5.1 prior, expectations down five points to 8.8. Lane said energy costs and higher borrowing "may limit need for ECB action"; Nagel said there are "so far no clear signs" of second-round effects and the ECB must stay flexible. Neither mentioned France, spreads or the TPI. Italy's request to build inflation into the fiscal-rule parameters goes to Ecofin on Friday 9 October and the European Council on 15–16 October. Stock news: Mediobanca −7.6% after Intesa raised its MPS bid by €0.8bn of cash; Rheinmetall +2.2% and Hensoldt +4.3% after Merz announced more than €1.3bn of Ukraine aid in Kyiv on Sunday.
United Kingdom
Gilts gave back Friday's rally and the FTSE outperformed on the weak euro. The FTSE 100 closed 10,497.94, +35.99, +0.34%, verified against a close report and chain-tied to Friday's 10,461.95; the FTSE 250 fell 0.3%. The 10-year was about 5.43%, +5bp, after "easing below 5.4 after hitting its highest since July 2007" on the vendor's own narrative, and the 30-year about 5.93%; both single-source, and both still below the intraday records of 5.44% (28 September) and 6.029–6.04% (1 October). The Budget is Wednesday 28 October. This week's supply is short and index-linked only: a 2035 linker today and two short conventional tenders (2031, 2028) on Wednesday. There is still no 30-year gilt auction this week. Pricing has about 85% on a 5 November hike and roughly four hikes over nine meetings (no timestamp on the tracker). Mann speaks today at 19:30 AEDT; Greene, Pill and Lombardelli on Thursday with the Credit Conditions Survey.
Japan
The Nikkei made a 2.40% day on chips and still sits 4% below its June record. The exchange's own index page gives 69,946.86, +1,637.40, +2.40%, and the JPX-Nikkei 400 +1.27%; the TOPIX was 4,145.22, +1.33% on one source. The Nikkei Semiconductor index rose 2.63% and the Nikkei VI 22.87. Tokyo Electron +5.5%, Advantest +4.3%, SoftBank Group about +3%, with banks along for the ride (MUFG +2%). The 107bp Nikkei-over-TOPIX gap is a narrower version of last week's 384bp: the index is still a bet on five names. JGBs were steady at the short end and heavy at the long end: 10y about 3.10% (−1bp), 30y about 4.24% (+3bp), above the 4.22% all-time high carried in this note on a single source. Deputy Governor Uchida called AI "a large positive demand shock that has lifted prices". The Diet opened Monday with Takaichi's policy speech and runs to 12 December; a consumption-tax-cut bill is due mid-October. Governor Ueda speaks today at 17:35 AEDT, the first look at the Governor's tone since the 7–2 hike and the weak-yen exchange with Washington. Japanese single-stock data are again partly sourced (above, from one vendor) and no relative-value view is opened.
China & Hong Kong
Hong Kong steadied on thin volume; the mainland is still shut. The Hang Seng close is unresolved within a narrow band, roughly flat between −0.1% and +0.3%: one vendor prints 24,020 (+0.28%) but its points change does not reconcile with Friday's 23,972.29, and Reuters' headline reads "ticks down in thin trade as property, financials drag". HS Tech closed somewhere near flat and is not published. Rate-sensitive sectors lagged again (property about −0.9% and financials about −0.7% at midday), while chip and PCB names rallied hard: Kingboard Laminates +9–12%, Hua Hong +4%, Lenovo +4.7%. Mainland markets and Stock Connect reopen Thursday 8 October; the Shanghai Composite is parked at 3,842.19. Citi called early Golden Week activity "underwhelming"; no official 2026 travel or spending figure exists yet and none is carried. FX reserves (prior US$3.43tn) land Wednesday into a closed market. Hong Kong's August retail sales rose 2.9% y/y on one source.
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Taiwan made a record and India ended a four-day slide; Brazil's first round re-rated its assets. The TAIEX closed at a record 49,712.04, +1,236.30, +2.55% (Focus Taiwan), on NT$1.15tn of turnover with foreign investors net buyers of NT$71.9bn; TSMC rose 3.0% to NT$2,575 and accounted for about 600 points, after Musk confirmed early-stage talks for TSMC to join his Terafab venture. Unlike Friday's record, this one was led by the mega-cap. India: Sensex 72,382.47 (+0.66%), Nifty 22,555.75 (+0.60%), the first gain in five sessions, into an RBI decision on Wednesday at 10:00 IST (15:30 AEDT) where a 25bp hike to 5.50% is consensus; the rupee was about 96.49, with the RBI reported selling dollars. Korea was shut Monday, reopens today, and shuts again Friday for Hangul Day. Singapore's STI rose 0.52% to 5,664.33 on one source. Brazil: with about 99% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% against Lula's 45%, and the two go to a runoff on Sunday 25 October; final polls had Lula ahead. USD/BRL fell about 4.3% to 4.99, a 17-month low below 5.00, and Brazilian ADRs rallied hard (XP +18–34%, Itaú +13–17% intraday). The tallies are from news reports at ~99% counted, not the electoral court's own page.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA: still 18%, still silent
Cash rate 4.60% after the unanimous 29 September hike. The tracker holds November at 18% hike / 81% hold, unchanged from Friday, with about 20bp over three meetings. The RBA's own diary confirms no policy speaker this week: only a payments-review summary today at 11:30, then the September minutes on Tuesday 13 October at 11:30, the Annual Report on 15 October, and Kent on 18 and 19 October, Connolly on the 20th and Hauser on the 21st. The Board reaches the 3 November Statement with the minutes as its only scheduled word.
Monday's domestic data cut slightly against the hawks. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.3% m/m in September, the smallest rise in three months, on two sources, against a 0.5% consensus carried from Friday. The services PMI stayed in expansion with slower new orders (single source). Today brings the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey for October at 10:30, the first read after the hike, against a prior of 84.4 following September's 5.2% fall, and ANZ-Indeed job ads at 11:30.
Markets: flat on a holiday, and the bond premium flipped
Equities. ASX 200 8,686.40, +4.30, +0.05%, chain-tied to Friday's 8,682.10 and corroborated by a second wrap and the ABC's live blog (a third source said +9 points and is outvoted). Volume was thin with NSW and Queensland on the Labour Day holiday. The session faded from a +0.62% high as US futures slipped. Only four sectors rose: health care +0.74%, materials +0.36%, industrials +0.21% and financials marginally; consumer discretionary −0.88%, telecoms −0.51%, IT −0.48%, staples −0.35%, utilities −0.33%, A-REITs −0.30% and energy −0.18%, the opposite of Friday's IT-led bounce. Cochlear +4.20%, Silex +4.32%, Imdex +4.26%, BHP +1.1%; 4DMedical −6.22%, Waypoint REIT −3.81%. Breadth was negative at 416 up and 557 down, and the A-VIX rose 1.69% to 11.46 (both single source). Losers included Growthpoint −3.1% to a five-year low, Lendlease −3.0%, WiseTech −2.1% to −2.8% and DroneShield −3.3%. CSL announced a deal worth up to US$2.35bn with Alentis.
Rates. ACGB 10y 5.30% (−3bp); the vendor's 2y of 4.92% and 3y of 4.86% carry no timestamp and are labelled unverified. ⭐ The Australian 10-year premium over the US, carried for weeks and cut to +5bp on Friday, has reversed to about −2bp on Monday: ACGBs rallied 3bp in the Sydney session while Treasuries sold off +4bp in New York. The two closes are struck about 15 hours apart, so the spread is derived and indicative; on Friday's numbers this desk said one more session would reverse it, and it did.
Currency. AUD/USD 69.36 US cents at 16:15 AEDT, then about 0.6960 late in New York (+0.05% on the vendor's basis). There was no RBA 4pm fix on Monday (NSW bank holiday); Tuesday's fix publishes at 16:00 today, after this edition. NZD/USD slid to about 0.5589, its lowest since November 2025. No AUD/NZD cross is derived: the two vendor legs were struck hours apart, and V023 is marked on the RBA table only.
Housing: three days to pass-through
Nothing new since the weekend's recomputed 49.7% across five capitals (509 of 1,025 reported, Brisbane 21.4%). A national 48.2% "three-month low" circulated again on Monday; this desk rejected that figure on Monday because it sits below both its own Sydney and Melbourne rows, and it stays rejected. All four majors pass the 25bp through on Friday 9 October. No source added detail on the pass-through mechanics, and Macquarie's 15 October date remains carried and unverified.
New Zealand
NZX 50 about 13,669.53, −0.08% (derived from the vendor's change; a second source says −0.2%), with Serko +2% and Infratil +1% against Hallenstein Glasson and Scales −2%. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is selling 13ha at Drury to Health NZ for $45.3m. The kiwi's slide to about 0.5589 is the week's NZ story: the 2-year still embeds roughly 4.5 hikes on a 2.75% OCR (Friday's 3.87%, not re-marked) against about one in Australia. The RBNZ Review is Wednesday 28 October at 12:00. The NZIER quarterly survey's release date was not confirmed.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior / context | Next release (AEDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 + SMP · minutes Tue 13 Oct 11:30 · 18% priced |
| MI inflation gauge (Sep) | +0.3% m/m | Smallest rise in three months; consensus was +0.5% | Released Mon 5 Oct (corroborated) |
| Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) | — | Prior 84.4 after a 5.2% fall | Today 10:30 — the first post-hike read |
| ANZ-Indeed job ads (Sep) | — | Prior +2.5% | Today 11:30 |
| MI consumer inflation expectations (Oct) | — | Prior 4.9% | Thu 8 Oct 11:00 |
| Auction clearance, five capitals | 49.7% prelim (3–4 Oct) | Recomputed 509 / 1,025 reported; Brisbane 21.4% | Weekend of 10–11 Oct |
| Mortgage pass-through | +25bp, all four majors | Westpac lowest variable 5.99% → 6.24%; CBA 6.34% | Effective Fri 9 Oct |
| NAB business survey (Sep) | — | Confidence prior −8 | Tue 13 Oct 11:30, with the RBA minutes |
| Labour force (Sep) · quarterly CPI (Q3) | — | Prior +39.5k, 4.6% | Labour force Thu 15 Oct 11:30 · CPI Wed 28 Oct, V006's resolution date |
| ACGB 10y · AU–US 10y | 5.30% · −2bp | −3bp · from +5bp | Derived across a 15-hour gap between closes |
House views & tactical framework
No trigger fired. V030 moved back into the money on vendor levels; V028 moved against itself toward its closing level; V017's 2 October print came in without firing either break leg. Two views cannot be marked on their own rules: V025, because the dedicated OAT–Bund series has not posted past 1 October, and V023, because there was no RBA 4pm fix on Monday. No conviction changed. The book is still one idea, that the term premium sets the price and the policy path does not, and Monday's session (hot services prices, a cycle-high 10-year, lower hike odds than before payrolls) supported it.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | |||||
| US 5s30s (V030) | Steepener | Low | 1–3 mo | About 60bp on Monday's vendor levels against a 57bp entry (official par, 2 Oct), provisional until the official 5 October row posts. Two sessions after payrolls missed by 61,000, the 10-year is at a cycle high (5.32%) and services prices are at 74.0, the highest since July 2022. The curve steepened from the long end (30y +4bp against 5y +1bp). JGB 30-year above its carried record; gilt 10-year back to 5.43%. $119bn of US coupon supply in three days | PRE-COMMITTED: two consecutive official par closes below 50bp close this view. Confirmation to Med: through 65bp with the 30-year above 5.70% (on vendor levels the 30-year is 3bp away and the spread 5bp). ⚠ Largest single risk: a strong 30-year reopening (Fri 04:00 AEDT) and a bull flattener |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med | 1–3 mo | Unmarkable this morning: the dedicated series last printed 130.3bp on 1 October (+36.3bp from a ≈94bp entry). Other series read 137–152bp on different benchmarks and are not used. The French problem reached the currency on Monday (EUR 17-month low; CAC six-month low), and Spain called a snap election. Nagel and Lane spoke and said nothing on spreads or the TPI, a second refusal in five days | UNCHANGED: a compression inside 80bp; a credible French consolidation; a dovish ECB on 30 Oct. ⚠ Conviction held at Med; it is not raised without a mark. ECB accounts Thu 22:30 AEDT; Ecofin Fri |
| Credit | |||||
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | Med | 1–3 mo | 2 October: IG 85bp (−1), HY 310bp (−14), CCC 1,202bp (−13), CCC/IG 14.14×. A relief day, but the ratio rose to a new high in the window, so the tail is not repairing relative to IG. Since 25 Sep: IG +4, HY +17, CCC +74bp. The year's largest financing (Paramount Skydance, $52bn package) traded down on day one | UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes it (152bp away). The double-break configuration did not appear on 2 Oct. The 5 Oct print, with equities up and the 10-year at a high, is the next test |
| Equities | |||||
| S&P 500 (V028) | Own downside convexity, not delta | Low | 2–4 wk | Losing: 7,775.30 against a 7,743.41 reference (0.41% above). The index went through the 7,725 call wall on a day the 10-year hit a cycle high. The rationale left is breadth (45.70% above the 200-day at 2 Oct) and a 19.0× forward multiple below its five-year average. CTAs at −0.80 SD have room to buy; buybacks reopen 15 Oct. One free source puts the call wall at 7,800 | UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 7,800 close this view (0.32% away). A close below 7,680 confirms it. ⚠ The gamma sign remains unreliable across sources and is not used |
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight tactically | Low | 2–4 wk | +3.55% in favour: 8,686.40 against 9,005.9. A flat, holiday-thin Monday. RBA November pricing 18%, unchanged; the MI gauge +0.3%, the smallest in three months, which cuts against the primary leg. The slower leg (housing) is unchanged until Friday's pass-through. The AU 10-year now trades about −2bp to the US | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close it. Resolution: CPI Wed 28 Oct. Westpac sentiment today 10:30 and the RBA minutes 13 Oct are the next inputs |
| FX | |||||
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | Unmarkable on its rule: no RBA 4pm fix on Monday. Last same-table mark 1.2356 (2 Oct), +0.33% from ≈1.2315. The kiwi fell to its lowest since November 2025 on Monday, which helps the view, but no same-table mark exists. The premise (NZ prices roughly four times Australia's tightening on a policy rate 185bp lower) is unchanged | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive RBA-table closes below 1.2250 close this view. Tuesday's fix publishes at 16:00 AEDT. CFTC: leveraged funds net long AUD +60,592 against legacy net short −63,239 |
| Commodities | |||||
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | December settled $100.32 (−$1.93 / −1.89%); the re-own band is far below. Unconfirmed Houthi-aligned claims of strikes on Ras Tanura, Rabigh and the export pipeline, against Hormuz flows above pre-war (Kpler) and a $5 Aramco price cut to Asia. NYMEX Brent legacy non-commercials net short (29 Sep). The policy risk sits in the crack, and Ras Tanura, if confirmed, is a refinery | PRE-COMMITTED, UNCHANGED: two consecutive December settles in $86.53–89.53. Also a confirmed restart at scale or a Hormuz reopening Oman confirms. EIA distillate line Thu 01:30 AEDT |
Book and scorecard. Seven open, twenty-three closed; 3 right / 13 wrong / 7 scratch, 3 of 16 decided. Nothing closed this edition. Two views are carried unmarked on their own rules, and both are named as tomorrow's first targets: the OAT–Bund dedicated series and Tuesday's RBA fix.
Portfolio-level read. Monday was a good day for the centre of the book and a bad one for its hedge. V030 regained its margin on a long-end sell-off driven by prices rather than labour, which is the thesis. V028 lost ground as the S&P went through its call wall, and with the closing level 0.32% away it could be closed by Thursday. V025 and V030 remain correlated through the same long-end risk, and the 30-year reopening on Friday morning Sydney time is the event that tests both. V023 and V024 remain the independent legs.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; every view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
⚠ The CFTC reporting date is still Tuesday 29 September, before the payroll print; the next report is Friday 9 October 15:30 ET (06:30 AEDT Saturday), covering Tuesday 6 October. Every contract was re-read this morning from the CFTC pages and the six-leg Treasury total reconciles exactly to the carried figure.
| Indicator | Latest | Change / context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — reporting date Tue 29 September (re-read, unchanged) | |||
| CBOT Treasuries — leveraged funds, six legs | −6,576,935 | +59,113 added on the week | 2y −1,165,980 · 5y −1,985,787 · 10y −2,036,432 · ultra-10y −328,471 · bond −251,395 · ultra-bond −808,870. Re-derived from long and short columns this morning; the total ties to the contract. With the 10-year 5.32% on Monday, the short is further in the money, which is consistent with, though it does not prove, basis-trade exposure being comfortable rather than stressed |
| E-mini S&P 500 | LF −372,489 · AM +904,003 | legacy NC −142,499 | Asset managers are the long side; leveraged funds the short. Re-derived this morning; Monday's −374,007 leveraged figure used a different column set and both are within 0.5% |
| FX majors — both series, named | see read | Two of six still diverge in sign | AUD: leveraged funds net LONG +60,592 against legacy non-commercials net SHORT −63,239. JPY: leveraged −14,161 against legacy +55,440. EUR −39,265 / −63,256 and CAD −69,644 / −78,671 agree, and both added shorts on the week (CAD by ~23–25k): the week to 29 September was a broad buy-dollar week across both cuts, consistent with Monday's 17-month low in the euro |
| Gold · WTI — legacy non-commercial | +218,632 · +109,463 | −7,221 · −31,643 | Gold still the most crowded book on the desk. WTI's cut came from 32,184 of new shorts, not long liquidation |
| Flows — three universes, labelled, never netted | |||
| BofA / EPFR — Flow Show | Bull & Bear 8.8 | from 9.3 | ⭐ The Flow Show this desk called "the 2 October edition" is dated Thursday 1 October. The aggregator summary gives Bull & Bear 8.8 from 9.3, with the sell signal still on, driven by wider credit spreads, high-yield outflows and weaker breadth; muni funds took $4.2bn, the largest weekly inflow since 2004; long-duration bond funds +$7.4bn. Hartnett's trade is "buy humiliation": long-dated Treasuries and hyperscaler bonds. All unverified (aggregator summary, not the note) |
| ICI | Combined +$20.14bn | w/e 23 Sep | Equity +$12.88bn, bond +$8.16bn, ETFs +$39.81bn against mutual funds −$19.67bn. Verified. The week to 30 September is due Wednesday |
| US spot crypto ETFs (Farside) | BTC +$189.9m · ETH −$37.4m | 2 Oct | ⭐ Monday's two gaps both closed. BTC's 2 October was +$189.9m (IBIT +$158.2m), larger than the +$31.7m partial carried; ETH's was −$37.4m, a fifth consecutive outflow. The 5 October row is a placeholder (0.0), not a zero |
| Lipper | not obtained | — | Not published |
| Sentiment and volatility | |||
| VIX term structure — VIX/VIX3M | 0.85 | VIX3M 18.01 (2 Oct) | ⭐ Discharged: VIX3M obtained — 18.01 at the 2 October close on the term-structure page, and 18.58 for 1 October on FRED. A ratio of 0.85 is solid contango, day 124. Monday's VIX: 15.55 |
| CBOE SKEW | 144.9 | 54th pct (2 Oct) | Re-fetched; unchanged because no newer observation has posted. Not carried as a premise |
| Put/call (1 Oct) | Equity 0.57 · total 0.90 | nine-day total avg 0.84 | Unchanged read; low equity put demand |
| Fear & Greed (replica) | 44, Fear | 49 a week ago | Components split: stock-price strength 11 against safe-haven demand 83 and junk-bond demand 72. Single site |
| AAII (w/e 30 Sep) | Bulls 34.6 · Bears 46.5 | spread −11.9 | Bears falling three weeks running from 53.3. Next survey Thursday |
| MOVE index | 107.29 (2 Oct) | ⚠ now unverified | ⚠ Downgraded from verified to unverified: the page lists a previous close of 95.74 that is inconsistent with its own −0.84 change. The clean print is 101.82 on 28 September, the first close above 100 since spring. No 5 October read |
| Breadth, technicals and dealer positioning | |||
| % of S&P members above 200-day | 45.70% | 2 Oct; long-run avg 65.21% | No newer read. BofA's note cites "400 S&P 500 stocks below their 50-day", consistent with the 25% above-50-day figure carried Monday |
| New highs / lows · Hindenburg | 71 / 218 · 3 of 4 | 2 Oct | Signal inactive; last trigger 17 August |
| Dealer gamma | Call wall 7,800 | from 7,725 | ⚠ Single free source, intraday 11:30 ET Monday: net gamma +$39.9bn (long gamma), flip 7,676, call wall 7,800, put wall 7,700. The call wall migrated up to exactly the level that closes V028. The sign of dealer gamma was rejected Monday as irreconcilable across sources and is still not relied upon |
| Systematic | CTAs −0.80 SD | 1 Oct vintage | No post-payrolls systematic monitor found. Buyback window reopens 15 October with $1.3trn authorised |
| Valuation and earnings — FactSet, 2 October | |||
| Forward P/E · Q3 EPS growth | 19.0× · +29.5% | 5-yr avg 19.8× · 10-yr 19.1× | Verified. Negative guidance 44 against 72 positive, the most since 2006. CY26 +32.4%, CY27 +15.8%. Bottom-up target 9,280.66 |
The week ahead
| Day | AEDT | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 6 October — mainland China still shut · Korea reopens · SPR exchange bids due | ||||||
| Tue | 10:30 | Mon 19:30 | AU Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Oct) — first post-hike read | 84.4 (−5.2%) | M | |
| Tue | 11:30 | Mon 20:30 | AU ANZ-Indeed job ads (Sep) · RBA payments-review summary | +2.5% | L | |
| Tue | all day | — | US SPR 40m bbl exchange — bids due (sixth solicitation, 173m bbl total; Big Hill and Bryan Mound, Nov–Dec delivery) | M | ||
| Tue | 17:00 | 02:00 | DE factory orders (Aug) | −0.9% | +2.5% | M |
| Tue | 17:35 | 02:35 | BoJ Governor Ueda speaks — first tone read since the 7–2 hike and the weak-yen exchange with Washington | H | ||
| Tue | 17:45 | 02:45 | FR industrial production (Aug) | +0.2% | −0.4% | L |
| Tue | 19:30 | 04:30 | UK construction PMI · BoE's Mann speaks · UK index-linked 2035 auction | 45.0 | 44.3 | M |
| Tue | 20:00 | 05:00 | EZ retail sales (Aug) | +0.2% | −0.6% | L |
| Tue | 23:30 | 08:30 | US trade balance (Aug) — one calendar moved its forecast during the morning | −$95.2 / −$100.8bn ⚠ | −$88.6bn | M |
| Tue | 00:05 · 01:45 Wed | 09:05 · 10:45 | US Fed's Williams · Bowman speak — the first Board and NY Fed reaction to +29,000 (schedules conflict across two calendars) | H | ||
| Tue | 04:00 Wed | 13:00 | US 3-year note auction, $58bn (size from two secondary sources) | M | ||
| Tue | 04:15 · 10:00 Wed | 13:15 · 19:00 | US Fed's Schmid · Logan | M | ||
| Wednesday 7 October — RBI, the 10-year, the FOMC minutes | ||||||
| Wed | 10:30 | Tue 19:30 | JP average cash earnings (Aug) | 3.7% | 4.3% | M |
| Wed | 15:30 | 00:30 | IN RBI decision, 10:00 IST (presser 17:30 AEDT) — a 25bp hike to 5.50% is consensus; first since Feb 2023 | 5.50% | 5.25% | H |
| Wed | day | — | CN FX reserves (Sep), into a closed market · NBP (Poland), NBR (Romania) and BCRP (Peru) decide this week, days unconfirmed | US$3.43tn | L | |
| Wed | 17:00 | 02:00 | DE industrial production (Aug) · UK Lloyds HPI · UK short gilt tenders (2031, 2028) | +0.5% | −1.1% | M |
| Wed | 01:30 Thu | 10:30 | US EIA weekly petroleum — the distillate line | crude +0.9m | H | |
| Wed | 04:00 Thu | 13:00 | US 10-year note reopening, $39bn | 4.834% | H | |
| Wed | 05:00 Thu | 14:00 | US FOMC minutes of 15–16 September | H | ||
| Wed | 06:00 · 11:00 Thu | 15:00 · 20:00 | US consumer credit · AU MI consumer inflation expectations (Oct) | $15.4bn · — | $18.1bn · 4.9% | M |
| Thursday 8 – Friday 9 October | ||||||
| Thu | 12:30 | — | Mainland China and Stock Connect reopen; first CNY fix since 30 Sep | H | ||
| Thu | 14:35 | Wed 23:35 | JP 30-year JGB auction — the 30-year at about 4.24%, above its carried all-time high | 4.08% / 3.8× | H | |
| Thu | 19:30–00:00 Fri | 04:30–09:00 | UK BoE Credit Conditions Survey · Greene, Pill, Lombardelli · Lane in London 21:00 | M | ||
| Thu | 22:30 | 07:30 | EZ ECB accounts of the 9–10 September meeting | H | ||
| Thu | 23:30 | 08:30 | US initial jobless claims · PepsiCo results | 200k | 197k | M |
| Thu | 04:00 Fri | 13:00 | US 30-year bond reopening, $22bn — the direct test of V030 · Musalem 04:40 | 5.31% | H | |
| Fri | open | — | AU big-four mortgage rate rises take effect · Korea shut (Hangul Day) · Ecofin, Luxembourg — Italy's fiscal-rule request | H | ||
| Fri | 10:30 · 23:30 | Thu 19:30 · 08:30 | JP household spending (Aug) · CA labour force (Sep) · Brazil IPCA · Delta results | −3.5% · +9.0k | −3.6% · −41.7k | M |
| Fri | 01:00 Sat | 10:00 | US UoM sentiment and 1-year inflation expectations (Oct prelim) · CFTC COT 06:30 Sat · Collins 07:00 Sat | 47.6 | 48.1 · 4.6% | M |
| The sessions after | ||||||
| Tue 13 | 11:30 · 22:00 | — · 07:00 | RBA minutes · NAB survey · NFIB · JPMorgan Q3 (with Wells, Citi, Goldman, unverified for the latter three) | H | ||
| Wed 14 | 23:30 | 08:30 | US CPI (September) — date confirmed on the BLS schedule · CN CPI/PPI and trade (12:30) · IEA OMR · BofA, Morgan Stanley | 3.4% y/y | H | |
| Thu 15 – Fri 16 | 11:30 Thu | — | AU labour force · UK GDP (Aug) · US retail sales and PPI · buyback blackout ends 15 Oct · European Council 15–16 · EZ final HICP Fri | 4.6% · 3.8% | H | |
| Sat 17 | — | — | Fed blackout begins (meeting 27–28 Oct) | M | ||
| Late Oct | — | — | PBoC LPR Tue 20 · BI 21 · BoK, CBRT 22 · Brazil runoff Sun 25 · RBNZ, UK Budget, AU CPI Wed 28 · FOMC Thu 29 05:00 · BoC Thu 29 00:45 · ECB Fri 30 00:15 · BoJ Fri 30 | H | ||
| Nov–Dec | 14:30 Tue 3 | — | RBA 3 Nov + SMP · OPEC+ 1 Nov · BoE 5 Nov · Spain election 29 Nov · US funding expires 11 Dec · CN–US tariff truce 10 Jan | H | ||
⚠ Every H/M/L rating is this desk's own judgement. Consensus figures are from one calendar that changed several forecasts during the morning (US trade balance, German factory orders, euro-area retail sales); where two values circulate both are shown. Fed speaker times conflict between two calendars and are indicative. Auction sizes are from secondary sources and not the Treasury's own announcement.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Impact if realised | Cheapest expression / hedge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The long end keeps bear-steepening into three auctions and the minutes | 3y Wed 04:00 · 10y Thu 04:00 · FOMC minutes Thu 05:00 · 30y Fri 04:00 AEDT · JGB 30y Thu 14:35 | 33% of FMS respondents name disorderly yields their top tail risk (Sep) | US 10-year 5.32%, a cycle high on the day services prices printed 74.0; JGB 30-year above its carried record; gilt 10-year back to 5.43%. $119bn of coupon supply in three days into that | V030. Payer swaptions on the 30-year rather than outright duration |
| 2 | Saudi energy infrastructure: claimed strikes nobody official has confirmed | Live. Houthi claims on Ras Tanura, Rabigh and the export pipeline from 14:32 UTC Monday; Riyadh explosions and flight suspensions reported 16:10–17:10 UTC | — | ⚠ All sourced to Iran- or Houthi-aligned outlets; no Saudi or Aramco statement found. Ras Tanura is a 550k bpd refinery. If confirmed, product cracks move before crude, as Monday's thesis already says. If not, the market has ignored a third disputed claim in a fortnight | Product-crack optionality; do not trade the flat price on a Sabereen headline. Watch for a Saudi Press Agency or Aramco statement |
| 3 | The euro breaks lower on two governments at once | Spain election 29 Nov; French budget debate; Ecofin Fri 9 Oct; ECB accounts Thu 22:30 | ECB Oct hike 8% (tracker) to ~28% of a hike (desk), unresolved | EUR/USD 17-month low 1.1161; CAC six-month low; OAT–Bund 130–152bp depending on series. Nagel and Lane said nothing about spreads or the TPI on Monday | V025 rather than EUR shorts: EUR shorts are consensus in both CFTC cuts (−39k / −63k) |
| 4 | Credit stays wide while the tail does not repair | The 5 Oct OAS set (publishes tonight); the Paramount financing settles ~7 Oct | — | HY tightened 14bp on 2 Oct but CCC/IG rose to 14.14×. Paramount's 8-year notes traded ~96c on day one, a >$100m loss for buyers of the largest financing of the year | V017; CDX HY protection rather than cash |
| 5 | The S&P runs through 7,800 and squeezes the hedge | Two consecutive closes above 7,800 close V028; call wall migrated to 7,800 (single source); buybacks reopen 15 Oct | — | Index 7,775.30, about 0.32% below 7,800. Nasdaq records. CTAs at −0.80 SD have room to buy | If short, own upside: call spreads above 7,800 |
| 6 | Hormuz: closure declared, flows above pre-war | Continuous; Iran's seven conditions | No closure probability, by standing rule | Kpler: 19.5–22.5 mb/d through the strait on 27–29 Sep, above pre-war; Saudi exports 6.9 mb/d in September. Against: at least seven vessel strikes near the strait since 28 Sep (one source) and an IRGC turn-back order on Monday | Trust the flow counts over the declaration. Aramco's $5 Arab Light cut for Asia says the seller sees ample supply |
| 7 | The policy crack and the EIA distillate line | EIA Thu 01:30 AEDT; G7 diesel release inside 20 days | — | Distillate stocks 14% below the five-year average; the G7 is selling into the crack it named. A confirmed Ras Tanura hit would push the other way | Product spreads, not crude |
| 8 | The RBI hikes into a falling rupee and a slowing equity market | Wed 15:30 AEDT | 8 of 10 economists; ~60% in a Reuters poll | First RBI hike since Feb 2023; rupee near 96.5 with the RBI selling dollars | INR vol into the decision |
| 9 | China absorbs a week of global moves in one session | Thu 8 Oct 12:30 AEDT | — | Nikkei +2.40% and TAIEX +2.55% on Monday on chips; the mainland missed all of it, plus a 10-year at a cycle high and a 17-month-low euro | A50 and HSI options over the reopen |
| 10 | Australian pass-through lands Friday | Fri 9 Oct, then CPI 28 Oct | RBA Nov 18% | The first weekend after pass-through is 10–11 October. The AU 10-year now trades below the US for the first time in this note's run | V006; the AU 3-year as the cheap leg if the curves converge |
| 11 | Gold stays crowded in a falling market | Continuous | — | Net long 53.79% of OI; spot about $4,141.50, flat Monday while the dollar firmed | Put spreads; no gold view open |
| 12 | Brazil's runoff re-prices a crowded EM carry book | Sun 25 Oct | — | BRL +4.3% on the first round to a 17-month high against the dollar; MXN was the second-most-crowded long on the desk | BRL vol over the runoff rather than more spot |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,775.30 | 7,725 (old call wall) · 7,680 (V028 confirms) · 7,676 (gamma flip, one source) | 7,800 (V028 closes on two closes; call wall, one source) · ~7,800 record (13 Aug, derived) | Through the wall Friday's edition said capped it |
| UST 5s30s · 2s10s | 60bp · 49bp | 50 (V030 closes) · 57 (entry) | 65 (V030 confirms, with 30y > 5.70%) | Vendor levels; official par posts ~09:00 AEDT |
| UST 30y · 10y · 2y | 5.67% · 5.32% · 4.83% | 5.63 · 5.28 · 4.83 (2 Oct par) | 5.70 (V030 confirms) · 5.40 · 5.00 | 10-year at a cycle high; three auctions this week |
| Gilt 10y · 30y | 5.43% · 5.93% | 5.30 · 5.80 | 5.44 (intraday, 28 Sep) · 6.029–6.04 (intraday, 1 Oct) | Records are intraday; the 30-year has never closed above 6% |
| OAT–Bund | 130.3bp (1 Oct) | 80 (V025 closes) | 130.3 (12-month max) | Dedicated series stalled; other series 137–152bp, not spliced |
| JGB 30y | ≈4.24% | 4.10 | 4.22 (carried record, now exceeded on one source) | 30-year auction Thu 14:35 AEDT |
| ACGB 10y · AU–US 10y | 5.30% · −2bp | 5.25 | 5.40 | The premium reversed on Monday |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 102.15 · 1.1211 · 157.90 | 101.67 · 1.1161 (17-mo low) · 156.95 | 102.5 · 1.1260 · 160 | EUR broke the range on Spain and France |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | ≈0.6960 · not marked | 0.6900 · 1.2250 (V023 closes, RBA table) | 0.6977 · 1.2450 | No RBA fix since Friday; vendor levels only |
| Brent (Dec) · WTI (Nov) | $100.32 · $89.43 | $98 · $86.53–89.53 (V024 re-own) | $103.50 · $96 | Claimed Saudi strikes unconfirmed; flows above pre-war |
| Gold · Silver | $4,141.50 · $60.89 | $4,100 · $60.00 | $4,203.60 · $61.51 | Flat while the dollar firmed |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,686.40 | 8,614 · 8,500 | 8,900 (V006 closes) · 9,005.9 | Flat on the holiday |
| Nikkei · TAIEX · Hang Seng | 69,946.86 · 49,712.04 · ≈24,000 | 68,300 · 48,475 · 23,865 | 73,007 (record) · — · 24,100 | TAIEX record close |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 85 / 310 / 1,202bp (2 Oct) | CCC 1,050 (V017 closes) | CCC 1,215 (1 Oct) · IG 90 | Ratio 14.14×, rising |
| VIX · VIX/VIX3M | 15.55 · 0.85 (2 Oct) | 15.00 | 17.59 (1 Oct high) | Contango intact |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six desks ran in parallel from 06:05 AEDT, while the US cash session was still open. Per the Tuesday–Friday protocol, Asia, Australia and Europe were drafted first and the US-close block was fetched last, 07:05–07:40 AEDT. The official Treasury par curve for 5 October had not posted at filing time (it posts ~18:00 ET, about 09:00 AEDT), so every Monday Treasury figure in this edition is a vendor close, labelled as such, and V030 is marked on it provisionally. The Fed Rate Monitor's settled refresh (after 17:05 ET, about 08:05 AEDT) had not posted at filing, so its 11:25 ET intraday snapshot is quoted and labelled as one. Every figure was retrieved on 5–6 October 2026; nothing is recalled.
Corrections and updates to No. 021
(1) MATERIAL: the AU–US 10-year premium has reversed. No. 021 carried +5bp and said one more session would reverse it; Monday's closes give about −2bp (derived across closes about 15 hours apart). The carried headline "Australian 10-year above the US" is withdrawn.
(2) MATERIAL: the BofA Flow Show called "2 October" is dated Thursday 1 October, and it is not inaccessible: an aggregator summary gives Bull & Bear 8.8, from 9.3, sell signal still on (unverified, summary only).
(3) MATERIAL: the 2 October crypto ETF flows. BTC was +$189.9m, not the +$31.7m partial carried; ETH was −$37.4m, not "not published".
(4) The MOVE index's 107.29 for 2 October is downgraded to unverified: its page lists a previous close (95.74) inconsistent with its own −0.84 change. The last clean print is 101.82 on 28 September.
(5) "A third US carrier group deploying", carried in No. 021's bottom line, could not be confirmed by any desk this morning and is withdrawn pending a source.
(6) Iran's conditions are now partly enumerated: the parliament speaker tied them to "the Islamabad memorandum", and one outlet lists an end to hostilities, lifting the US naval blockade, unfrozen assets and sanctions relief among the seven. This partly closes No. 021's open question on whether the "June Islamabad deal" is the 17 June memorandum; it appears to be, though the full list was not found.
(7) The French PLF 2027 was presented to the Council of Ministers on 1 October. No. 021 carried Tuesday 6 October as the deposit deadline; no desk could confirm a deposit event today, so the calendar row is dropped.
(8) The RBI announcement time is confirmed at 10:00 IST (15:30 AEDT), with the press conference at 12:00 IST, on two sources.
(9) VIX3M is discharged: 18.01 at the 2 October close, 18.58 on FRED for 1 October, ratio 0.85.
(10) The 2 October IG/HY/CCC observation is discharged: 85 / 310 / 1,202bp, verified on FRED's own text series.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
OAT–Bund: the dedicated series has not updated past 130.3bp on 1 October. Other reads range from about 137bp (derived from one vendor's two legs on 5 October) to about 146bp (a news outlet, 5 October) and about 152bp (two outlets, at the 1–2 October peak). The benchmarks differ; the series are not spliced and V025 is not re-marked. ECB October pricing: 8% for a hike on one tracker against 0.28 of a hike (≈28%) on a bank desk's read; both published, neither adopted. ASX 200: 8,686.40 (+4.30) on a dated wrap, chain-tied and corroborated; a +9-point read on a third source is outvoted. Hang Seng: one vendor's level does not reconcile with its own points change against the verified prior; published as a band. Brent/WTI intraday: one vendor ran $2 below three others all day; settles were taken from a Reuters settlement report that chain-ties to Friday's settles, with a vendor continuous quote within six cents. Diesel crack: a ~$102/bbl "diesel crack" in one Monday report is a different definition from the $69/bbl USGC-over-WTI series this note carries; not spliced. Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX levels: the vendor pages imply priors that do not match Friday's verified closes and are not used; only percentage moves are published.
Single-source and unverified items
The Saudi strike claims (Sabereen, Fars, Tasnim only) · TOPIX 4,145.22 · the STI · the NZX change · the A-VIX and ASX breadth · gilt and JGB Monday yields (one vendor each) · the dealer-gamma levels (one free source, intraday) · the Fear & Greed replica · the BofA Flow Show figures (aggregator) · crypto prices other than BTC · the seven-tanker count since 28 September (one outlet) · Fed speaker times (two calendars disagree) · auction sizes (secondary sources).
Not published
The official 5 October par curve (posts after filing) · the 5 October OAS set · the 5 October OAT–Bund · an RBA 4pm fix for 5 October (none was struck) · SPI overnight · HS Tech close · Euro Stoxx 50, DAX and Stoxx 600 levels (percentages only) · Canada 10-year for Monday · USD/KRW for Monday · official Golden Week data · post-payrolls CTA estimates · Lipper · ICE Brent COT · the IG and HY issuance calendar for this week · any Hormuz closure probability.
Tomorrow's first verification targets
(1) The official 5 and 6 October par curves, which mark V030 on its own rule. (2) A Saudi or Aramco statement on Ras Tanura, Rabigh and the export pipeline. (3) The 5 October OAS set for V017. (4) The OAT–Bund dedicated series past 1 October. (5) Tuesday's RBA 4pm fix, the first since Friday, to mark V023. (6) Williams, Bowman and Logan on payrolls. (7) Westpac sentiment and the Ueda speech. (8) The 3-year auction result. (9) The settled Fed Rate Monitor read for 5 October.
United States, the Fed and positioning
- ISM — Services PMI, September 2026 · S&P Global — US services PMI final
- US Treasury — daily par yield curve, October 2026 · Trading Economics — US 10-year
- AP tabulation for 5 October: not posted at filing · stockanalysis — SPY · DIA · QQQ · IWM
- Yahoo Finance — markets live, 5 October · TheStreet — 5 October · Quartz — Schneider/PTC
- Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Polymarket — Fed decision in October · Fed — 2026 speeches · FOMC calendar
- Cleveland Fed — nowcast · BLS — CPI schedule · CBS — Supreme Court term · TIME — US–China tariff cuts
- CFTC — TFF · legacy CME · COMEX · NYMEX
- FactSet — Earnings Insight, 2 October · Citadel Securities — the Q4 reload · BofA Flow Show, 1 October (summary)
- AAII · ICI · VIX term structure · SKEW · put/call · Fear & Greed replica · zerogex — SPX gamma · breadth
Rates, FX and central banks
- RBA — 4pm exchange rates · RBA — coming up · centralbank.watch — RBA · BoE · ECB
- OAT–Bund dedicated series · Bund · OAT · BTP · gilt 10y · JGB · ACGB
- Reuters via WBOW — Nagel · ECB — Lane, 5 October · ECB weekly calendar · FXStreet — ECB pricing
- Euronews — euro at a 17-month low · Al Jazeera — Spain snap election · TE — EUR · DXY · BRL
- Business Standard — RBI · MUFG — Japan weekly · investingLive — Asia wrap
Australia, New Zealand and Asia
- ABC — markets live, 5 October · Investing.com — ASX close · Market Index — 5 October · TE — ASX
- TE — NZX 50 · interest.co.nz
- Nikkei Indexes · newsonjapan — Tokyo close · TE — Japan
- Reuters via Investing.com — Hong Kong · TE — Hang Seng · BBN Times — Golden Week
- Focus Taiwan — TAIEX record · Business Standard — Sensex, 5 October · Yahoo SG — STI · KRX holidays
Europe and geopolitics
- MarketScreener — FTSE close · Irish Times — Stoxx 600 · TE — CAC 40 · FXStreet — Sentix · investingLive — EZ PMI
- Newsquawk — headlines (Saudi claims, sourced to Sabereen) · Al Jazeera — Iran's conditions · AP — Merz in Kyiv
- Al Jazeera — Brazil first round · MercoPress — runoff 25 October · Brussels Signal — Italy
- ForexFactory — week of 5 October · week of 12 October · JPMorgan — Q3 date
Commodities, credit and digital assets
- Reuters via AOL — Monday oil settles · TE — Brent · oilprice — Brent curve · oilprice — Hormuz flows above pre-war · Benzinga — Gulf exports · Price Group — Aramco OSP · Rigzone — SPR
- Kitco — precious metals · Westmetall — LME copper · TE — iron ore · TE — TTF
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS · Quartz — Paramount bonds
- CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside BTC · Farside ETH · Coinalyze