The bottom line
- October hike odds halved on a core PCE print the BEA had just rewritten, and the long end sold off anyway. Core PCE came in +0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y against 3.3% consensus, headline 3.4% against 3.7%. The Fed Rate Monitor, stamped 13:55 ET, now prices 39.0% for 28 October against the 71.2% carried, and the December two-hike bucket has fallen from 58.6% to 32.5%. The mechanism matters more than the number: the BEA's annual update changed how it measures portfolio-management fees, legal services and software, revised back to 2021, and cut core by more than Goldman and JPMorgan had flagged. The same release showed real spending +0.6%, the strongest since March 2025; ADP printed +90K against ~68K; the Chicago PMI printed 58.8 against 51.2, its highest since May. Activity was strong and part of the disinflation was definitional. A new view is opened on this — V029, in section 08.
- The 30-year made a new high on the day the Fed was repriced dovish, and that sentence is the regime. The long bond traded ~5.63% intraday against the 5.612% carried 24-year high, with the 10-year ~5.29%. The official par curve for 29 September posted and closes a carried gap: 2y 4.89, 3y 4.98, 5y 5.06, 7y 5.16, 10y 5.26, 20y 5.64, 30y 5.59 — 2s10s 37bp, 5s30s 53bp. Read the two days together and the front end rallied on soft inflation while the long end did not follow. If a downside inflation surprise cannot bid the long end, the bid has to come from supply management, not from data — which puts Thursday 8 October's 30-year auction in a different light.
- The Dow lost roughly four times the S&P while the Nasdaq-100 rose — the widest one-day index dispersion of the quarter, on the last day of it. Settled ETFs at the 16:00 ET stamp: SPY −0.23%, DIA −0.85%, QQQ +0.25%. Derived cash: S&P ≈7,653.0, Dow ≈50,912. The tape reversed from +0.5% intraday — the S&P was ~7,715 and the Nasdaq +1.0% at midday on the PCE print — into a lower close, which is the more informative half of the session. V028 is working: ≈−1.17% from the 7,743.41 reference, with the close sitting roughly eight points above the 50-day at 7,645.24.
- The credit trigger's first condition fired and the second missed by a basis point, so the view does not confirm. At 29 September CCC is 1,157bp — through the 1,150 confirmation level — with IG at 84bp, up only 1bp against +4bp the session before. The trigger as published reads "through 1,150bp with IG flat". One basis point is not flat, and this desk does not round a trigger in its own favour: conviction stays Med and the 30 September observation decides it. The diagnostic is unchanged and is the real content — the CCC/IG ratio held at 13.8×, so this is still broad rates beta rather than the idiosyncratic low-quality decompression the view is built on.
- Australian inflation re-accelerated to 4.0% and the market priced fewer hikes, because the core did not accelerate. Headline 4.0% y/y from 3.5%, driven almost entirely by automotive fuel +14.8% m/m as the federal excise relief ended on 3 August; trimmed mean 3.6% y/y for a third month and 0.2% m/m against 0.3% expected. November pricing fell to ~20% from 35–40%. The ASX rallied +0.92% to 8,789.3 led by real estate +3.7% — precisely the rate-sensitive complex V006 is short. And the correction that matters: all four majors have now confirmed the full 25bp pass-through, effective 9 October, against the "one lender and none of the big four" published yesterday.
- Micron cleared its number by a distance and the most-crowded trade in the world gets its answer on a thin Asian tape. FQ4 revenue $54.23bn against ~$51.07bn consensus and adjusted EPS $33.42 against $31.61, with FQ1 guidance of $61.5bn ±$1.5bn and a gross margin near 86% against the 86% that was the stated watch item. The September Fund Manager Survey has 53% of respondents long global semiconductors as the most-crowded trade. Asia trades it today with Hong Kong and the mainland both shut, so Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei carry the read-through alone — and Korea has already fallen three sessions into it.
Overnight recap
The US session — a soft print, a strong economy, and a reversal
The 08:30 ET release was the event. Core PCE rose 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y against a 3.3% consensus; headline PCE 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y against 3.7%. Personal income rose 0.2%, nominal spending 0.9% and real spending 0.6%, the strongest since March 2025, with the saving rate at 4.1%. The caveat is not a footnote: the BEA's annual update changed the price measurement for portfolio-management fees, legal services and software with revisions back to 2021, and the resulting downward revision to core was larger than the 0.1–0.2pp Goldman and JPMorgan had flagged in advance. July's core y/y was itself revised from 3.3% to 3.0%. Read as an inflation observation this was soft; read as a behavioural observation it is partly a change of definition.
The rest of the day's data cut the other way. ADP printed +90K against roughly 68K expected with August revised to +36K. The Chicago PMI printed 58.8 against 51.2 consensus and 47.1 prior, its highest since May, with prices paid down 3.7 points and employment lower. A single-source read has Conference Board confidence at 81.9 for September, which would be the weakest since 2014 and is the one soft reading in the set.
Markets took the inflation print first and the rest second. The S&P was up 0.5–0.58% at midday, around 7,715, with the Nasdaq +1.0% near 27,072 and the Dow roughly flat; by the bell the settled ETFs read SPY −0.23%, DIA −0.85%, QQQ +0.25%. That is a reversal of roughly 80 basis points on the S&P and 85 on the Dow from the intraday high, on the last session of the quarter. Movers, on mixed stamps: HPE +4.0% on a raised networking forecast, Cboe Global Markets +4.4%, MongoDB +6.1% intraday on an expanded buyback, Nvidia +1.4% intraday; against Moderna −6.35% on a Citigroup downgrade, Northrop Grumman −4.29% and Mattel −3.37%. A closing sector table and breadth count could not be obtained.
Treasuries did not cooperate with the dovish repricing. Intraday reads had the 2-year at 4.88% from 4.89%, the 10-year at 5.29% from 5.26% and the 30-year at 5.63% from 5.59% — a bear steepener on a soft inflation print, which is an unusual combination and the central fact of the session. The 30-year's ~5.63% is above the 5.612% intraday high published two days ago as a 24-year record. After the close, Micron reported FQ4 revenue of $54.23bn against ~$51.07bn and adjusted EPS of $33.42 against $31.61, guiding FQ1 to $61.5bn ±$1.5bn with a gross margin near 86%; the after-hours reaction could not be verified at filing time and the one available read describes the stock as flat.
Europe — a first monthly loss in six, and inflation everywhere
Europe closed broadly lower and finished September in the red. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.50% to 634.89, its first monthly loss in six (−2.5% on the month, −1.0% on the quarter). The DAX lost 0.79% to 25,199.19, closing below its 100-day moving average and ending September −4.0%; the CAC 40 fell 0.89% to 7,964.51, its first close below 8,000 since 20 May; the FTSE MIB −0.84% to 51,371, the SMI −0.59% to 13,830.34, the IBEX −0.47% to 19,426.20 and the FTSE 100 −0.29% to 10,606.00. Insurers −1.4%, banks −0.8% and industrials −0.7% led the decline; utilities rose 0.6%. Tullow fell 47% on an arbitration loss; Saga rose 22.8% and Greggs 8.2%.
The driver was a synchronised upside inflation surprise. German flash CPI rose to 3.3% y/y against 3.1% expected from 2.9%, with HICP also 3.3% and energy +14.9% y/y; core held at 2.4%. The national flashes followed: France HICP 3.4% (national CPI 3.0%), Italy 4.2% on Istat's NIC measure, Spain 4.9–5.0%. The euro-area aggregate flash has not been released — the date is contested between today and Friday — with consensus at 3.6–3.7% against a 3.2% prior. EUR/USD fell to 1.1312, its lowest since May 2025, and the dollar had its largest monthly gain against the euro in fourteen months.
Asia — the last mainland session before Golden Week
Asia was the strongest region of the day. The Nikkei rose 1.28% to ~66,318.81 tracking the US semiconductor bid, with SoftBank +358 yen to 6,393; the TOPIX rose to ~4,076.04. The 29 September TOPIX underperformance carried in yesterday's edition is now confirmed as an ex-dividend artefact — of the Nikkei's 396-point fall that session, roughly 380 points is attributed to the fiscal-half record date. Japanese August industrial production fell 1.7% m/m against +1.7% expected and retail sales rose 2.7% y/y against 3.3%.
China's last session before the 1–7 October closure was quietly firm and the PMIs were the reason. The official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1 (consensus 50.1, prior 49.8) with production at 51.7 and new orders 50.5, and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2 beat a 49.3 consensus. The private survey — now published as RatingDog rather than Caixin — printed manufacturing 52.1 and services 51.6. Shanghai rose 0.31% to 3,842.19 and Shenzhen slipped 0.11%; the Hang Seng rose 0.37% to 24,613.27. A stimulus package with mortgage subsidies and expanded central-bank funding, described single-source as the largest since September 2024, drew a muted reaction.
Elsewhere: the TAIEX rose 1.12% to 48,163.78, within striking distance of its record, with TSMC +1.2%, MediaTek +2.8% and Delta +3.0%. Korea fell for a third session, the KOSPI −0.48% to 6,838.04, with Samsung Electronics −1.47% and insurance −3.27%; foreigners sold ₩2.05tn on the day and roughly ₩9tn over three sessions. India was flat to lower — Sensex −0.07% to 72,480.29, Nifty −0.42% to 22,620.45 — with FII selling of Rs 9,980 crore, a four-month high, on elevated crude. The NZX 50 rose 1.10% to 13,834.39 as business confidence fell to a three-month low.
Market dashboard
Wednesday 30 September — cross-asset change
| Equities | Close | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ≈7,653.0 | ≈−0.23% | Derived from SPY's settled −0.2329% ("At close: Sep 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT") on a verified 7,670.84 prior. Intraday high ~7,715 (+0.58%) — an ~80bp reversal into the bell. 52-wk range 6,316.91–7,816.70 |
| Dow Jones | ≈50,912 | ≈−0.85% | Derived from DIA's settled −0.8521% on a verified 51,349.92 prior. The widest Dow-versus-NDX split of the quarter, 110bp |
| Nasdaq-100 | — | +0.25% | QQQ settled +0.2548%. ⚠ This is the NDX, not the Composite |
| Nasdaq Composite | not obtained | — | ⚠⚠ ONEQ, the Composite ETF, is still stamped 29 September, and the quote page serves 26,797.54 — the 29th's close. A 15:59 ET snapshot has the Composite at −0.37% against the NDX at +0.25%, a 62bp split that cannot be adjudicated without a settle. Withheld |
| Russell 2000 | not obtained | — | ⚠ The quote page still serves 2,809.54, the 29th's close. IWM is stamped "3:52 PM EDT — Market open" at −0.16%, an intraday capture, not a settle |
| VIX | not obtained | — | ⭐ The 29 September gap IS closed: 16.04 from the historical series, against 16.07 on the 28th. No 30 September row |
| Europe — all seven reconcile to a verified prior this edition, the first clean sweep since the prior-vintage problem was found | |||
| Stoxx 600 | 634.89 | −0.50% | ⭐ Ties to the 638.08 prior. First monthly loss in six: −2.5% September, −1.0% Q3. ⚠ A wire story carrying the identical figures is datelined 12 August — a dateline trap; the quote page stamped 11:50 EDT is the valid source |
| DAX · CAC 40 | 25,199.19 · 7,964.51 | −0.79% · −0.89% | Both tie. DAX closed below its 100-day, September −4.0%, Q3 +0.8%. The CAC's first close below 8,000 since 20 May. Commerzbank −4.0%, Ionos −5.8% |
| FTSE 100 · IBEX · SMI | 10,606.00 · 19,426.20 · 13,830.34 | −0.29% · −0.47% · −0.59% | ⚠ The FTSE prior was wrong: every source implies a 29 Sep close of ~10,636.71, not the 10,623 carried. IBEX and SMI tie exactly. FTSE 250 +0.68%. Tullow −47% on an arbitration loss |
| FTSE MIB · Euro Stoxx 50 | 51,371 · 6,269 | −0.84% · −0.80% | ⭐ The ESTX50 is published for the first time in three editions and becomes the carried prior. UniCredit +2.15%, TIM −2.58% |
| Asia-Pacific | |||
| Nikkei 225 | ≈66,318.81 | +1.28% | Chain ties exactly to the exchange-verified 65,481.27 prior, but single-source; a second print at 66,342.71 is 24 points away and a third at 67,062 fails the chain and is rejected. The exchange archive is still on 29 September |
| TOPIX | ≈4,076.04 | +0.86% | Ties exactly to 4,041.13. ⚠ Two rival prints at 4,067.98 and 4,108.65. ⭐ The 29 Sep −1.72% is CONFIRMED as ex-dividend — ~380 of the Nikkei's 396-point fall that day |
| Hang Seng · HS Tech | 24,613.27 · not obtained | +0.37% | ⚠ The vendor's level field (24,438) contradicts its own change of +89.70; the arithmetic adjudicates and the change is right. Xiaomi and Meituan supported. ⚠⚠ HS Tech lost for a third consecutive edition. HK shut today |
| Shanghai · Shenzhen · CSI 300 | 3,842.19 · 12,887.6 · not obtained | +0.31% · −0.11% | ⭐ Official mfg PMI back above 50 at 50.1; non-mfg 50.2 beat 49.3. RatingDog (formerly Caixin) mfg 52.1. Last mainland session before Golden Week — no fresh China signal for ten days |
| TAIEX | 48,163.78 | +1.12% | Open and close both tie to the prior. Within 438 points of the 48,601.53 record. TSMC +1.2%, MediaTek +2.8%, Delta +3.0% — Taiwan is trading the AI cycle, not the Korean tape |
| KOSPI · KOSDAQ | 6,838.04 · 855.91 | −0.48% | Ties exactly. A third consecutive fall: Samsung Electronics −1.47%, SK hynix +0.62%, insurance −3.27%. Foreigners sold ₩2.05tn on the day and ~₩9tn over three sessions. ⚠ The carried KOSDAQ prior of 843.87 fails its chain |
| Sensex · Nifty 50 | 72,480.29 · 22,620.45 | −0.07% · −0.42% | Both reconstruct exactly. FII selling Rs 9,980 crore, a four-month high, on elevated crude. Apollo Hospitals −6.63%. Shut Friday |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,789.3 | +0.92% | ⭐ Chain ties exactly (+80.0). Real estate +3.7%, discretionary +2.6%, telecoms +2.3% — the rate-sensitive complex, on the dovish CPI repricing. Breadth 144/53/3. Charter Hall +6.4%, Lendlease +11.3%. September −3.2%. ⚠ Sector count disputed: one source says all eleven higher, another has IT −0.4% |
| NZX 50 | 13,834.39 | +1.10% | Ties exactly. Business confidence at a three-month low |
| Rates & credit | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official par curve, 29 Sep | 2y 4.89 · 5y 5.06 · 10y 5.26 · 30y 5.59% | 2y −3 · 10y +2 · 30y +3bp | ⭐⭐ A CARRIED GAP CLOSES. Full row: 2y 4.89, 3y 4.98, 5y 5.06, 7y 5.16, 10y 5.26, 20y 5.64, 30y 5.59. 2s10s 37bp, 5s30s 53bp, 3s10s 28bp — the desk's derived 36/52 were one basis point tight on both |
| UST 2y (30 Sep) | ≈4.88% | ≈−1bp | Intraday. Barely moved on a print that halved October hike odds — the front end had already rallied 3bp on Tuesday's confidence collapse |
| UST 10y (30 Sep) | ≈5.29% | ≈+3bp | The 29 Sep market close was 5.252% with a 5.296% intraday high, which is also the 52-week high |
| UST 30y (30 Sep) | ≈5.63% | ≈+4bp | ⭐⭐ A NEW 24-YEAR HIGH, through the 5.612% printed two sessions ago — on the day core PCE undershot by 30bp. Corroborated on two intraday sources, not settled |
| 2s10s · 5s30s (30 Sep) | ≈41 · ≈55bp | ≈+4 · ≈+2bp | A second consecutive bear steepener, this one on a dovish inflation surprise. ⚠ The 5s30s steepener has now been declined four times |
| JGB 2y · 10y · 30y | 1.97 · 3.10 · 4.15% | 0 · +1 · −3bp | 10y just off 30-year highs after a strong 40-year auction. 2y still embeds ~72bp over the 1.25% policy rate |
| Bund 2y · 10y · 30y | 3.20 · 3.5849 · 3.94% | −7 · −2.5 · −1bp | Bunds bid against an upside German CPI surprise — the safe-haven leg working inside a European inflation shock. The 10y hit a 17-year high of 3.65% earlier in the week; +27bp on the month |
| OAT 10y · BTP 10y | 4.85 · 4.57% | +3.5 · −2bp | The OAT rose 61bp in September and 113bp in Q3 — its largest quarterly rise since 1987. Highest since 2008 |
| OAT–Bund | 111.2bp (29 Sep) | +5.8bp | ⭐⭐ MARKABLE AGAIN AFTER TWO EDITIONS — THE ROUTE WAS INTERMITTENT, NOT DEAD. The dedicated same-page series resolved on the first attempt: OAT 4.74 / Bund 3.63, and 111.2bp is the top of its own 12-month range against a 74.2bp average. This discharges the highest-priority standing action item. ⚠ No 30 Sep print; the legs imply wider still, and a rival same-page source has 120.8bp on a different benchmark basis — a 9bp basis gap, so quote one series and stay on it |
| Gilt 2y · 10y · 30y | 4.77 · 5.42 · 5.93% | stale | ⚠ The vendor page is dated 29 September and its implied prior disagrees with the carried 5.36. No 30 September gilt level obtained. UK Q2 GDP revised up to +0.5% q/q |
| ACGB 2y · 3y · 10y | 4.95 · 4.93 · 5.35% | −2.2 · −1.7 · −1.9bp | ⚠⚠ THE CARRIED PRIORS WERE WRONG: 29 September was 4.97 / 4.95 / 5.37, not 5.06 / 5.02 / 5.43. The 10y is corroborated independently. Premium over the 4.60% cash rate: 2y +35bp, 3y +33bp — down from +46/+42 on the corrected basis, so the front end has given back roughly a third of a hike since the decision |
| ACGB 3s10s | 42bp | +1bp | V004 closed on this spread yesterday. It has kept steepening. 2s10s 40bp |
| US IG · HY · CCC OAS | 84 · 308 · 1,157bp (29 Sep) | +1 · +6 · +11bp | ⭐⭐ THE HIGHEST-VALUE DATAPOINT OF THE WEEK ARRIVED. CCC IS THROUGH 1,150 — AND IG MOVED ONLY 1bp against +4bp the day before. The trigger says "with IG flat"; 1bp is not flat, and it sits inside the series' own 1bp display rounding, so it cannot be adjudicated either way. Not confirmed. The 30 Sep observation decides it. CCC/IG held at 13.8× — still beta, not decompression. Six consecutive sessions of IG widening |
| HY issuance | $38.51bn (Sep) | 2026 high | The heaviest month of the year into the widest spreads in five months. Goldman's Lynam warns of "phased supply indigestion". Paramount Skydance is planning a $44.4bn financing. Single-source |
| FX — 30 September | Level | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.4373 | +0.07% | ⭐ The vendor's own implied prior is 101.372 against a carried 101.3692 — a tie to three decimals. Weight-summed legs imply ~+0.11% against a stated +0.07%; the residual is small and in the right direction this session. The dollar rose ~1.5% in September and had its largest monthly gain against the euro in fourteen months |
| EUR/USD | 1.13309 | ≈−0.27% | The lowest since May 2025, and it fell on an upside German CPI surprise — the growth read beat the inflation read. ⚠ The carried 1.13619 prior does not tie to the dated 29 Sep close of 1.1340; the change is quoted against our own published prior and the conflict is flagged |
| USD/JPY · GBP/USD | 157.183 · 1.3261 | −0.13% · +0.18% | Yen firmer on Japanese fiscal-half-end flows. Implied priors within ~0.1 and ~0.3 big figures of carried |
| AUD/USD | ≈0.6976 | ≈−0.15% | ⚠⚠ THE CARRIED 0.7018 PRIOR WAS THE 28 SEPTEMBER CLOSE, NOT THE 29TH — the 29th was ≈0.6987, so yesterday's "flat" was measured off the wrong day. A nine-week low, with the intraday trough unresolved in a 0.6963–0.6976 band. September −2.8% |
| NZD/USD · USD/CAD · USD/CHF | 0.5646 · 1.41845 · 0.8352 | −0.10% · — · — | USD/CHF at a 16-month high. No carried prior for CAD or CHF — both enter the ledger as new |
| USD/CNY · PBoC fix | 6.70694 · 6.7351 | −0.02% | ⭐ The fix is properly sourced this edition and it is a WEAK-yuan fix: 282 pips weaker than spot and above the 6.7025 Reuters estimate. ⚠ The vendor's prose calls it "stronger", contradicting its own arithmetic — take the numbers, reject the prose |
| AUD/NZD | ≈1.2345 | ≈−0.35% | ⚠ Same-table construction per the 25 September protocol, but the mark is contested across a 1.2345–1.2388 band and the carried 1.24211 does not reproduce from the dated 29 Sep legs (which give 1.2388). The leg problem has returned; the direction from the 1.2315 entry is a modest gain either way |
| EUR/JPY · USD/MXN · USD/KRW | 178.10 · 18.0451 · 1,355.67 | −0.20% · — · — | EUR/JPY cross-computed and corroborated by a dated row within 0.09. ⚠ The won's stated change has the wrong sign against its own level — the level is below the 28 Sep print, i.e. won stronger |
| Commodities & digital assets | Last | 1d | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Nov-26) | ≈$103.34 | ≈+0.73% | ⚠⚠ CONTRACT-MONTH TRAP LIVE AND CONFIRMED: Dec-26 prints ≈$98.08, roughly five dollars light. Read the label. ⚠ Intraday, not a settle — no 30 September settle was obtainable. Brent rose ~14% in September |
| Brent — the change base | 29 Sep settle $102.59 | −2.69 (−2.6%) | ⭐⭐ THE CONTESTED BASE IS RESOLVED AND IT RESOLVES AGAINST THIS DESK. The 28 September settles were Brent Nov $105.28 and WTI $92.60, not the $107.71 / $96.23 published — no source supports our figures. Tuesday's fall was −2.6%, not the −4.65% we printed. See §13 |
| WTI · Brent–WTI | ≈$90.56–91.16 · >$12 | ≈+1.99% | The discount is the widest since early May. The SPR release lands on WTI, so the spread keeps working — V026 was closed wrong at $2.95 and the thesis has now paid four times that against us |
| Brent curve | Nov–Dec ≈$5.3–6.4 | narrowing | ⚠ The carried "above $7" is not supported: the 29 Sep settle spread was $6.43 and the 30 Sep intraday ~$5.3–5.6. Backwardation is flattening — the physical tightness is easing at the front |
| Henry Hub · TTF · EU storage | $3.02 · €72.44 · 71.3% | +0.25% · +4.27% | TTF's implied prior ties to the carried €69.20 within 0.27. Storage 11.2pp below last year and 15.6pp below the five-year average, with QatarEnergy's force majeure extended through December |
| EIA weekly (w/e 25 Sep) | Crude +0.9m | vs −0.264m cons. | Distillate −2.3m and 14% below the five-year average; gasoline −1.7m; commercial crude 427.3m, 2% above the five-year average. Diesel above $6 a gallon, with talk of an export ban |
| SPR release | up to 40m bbl | bids 6 Oct | ⭐ Structured as an EXCHANGE, not a sale — repaid with interest, ~200m bbl returned over a year. Reserve 286.6m before the release, heading to its lowest since 1982 against a 252.4m legal floor for non-emergency releases, which is why Energy Secretary Wright says further drawdowns are unlikely. The ceiling on this tool is now visible |
| Gold (spot) | $4,151.40 | ≈−0.55% | ⭐ A 16:03 ET near-close print, corroborated to within a dollar. Gold fell ~6% in September. ⚠ A 15:59 ET wrap has gold +0.75% at $4,211 — that is the Comex future, not spot; the two are not interchangeable and the spot chain is the one quoted |
| Silver · Platinum · G/S ratio | $60.27 · $1,701.80 · 68.9 | −1.92% · +1.29% | Silver the weakest thing on the desk. ⭐ Platinum's three-way contradiction from yesterday resolves toward the higher camp, vindicating the dissent published at ~$1,707 |
| Copper LME cash · 3M | $14,474.50 · $14,448.00 (29 Sep) | −0.48% | ⭐ THE BACKWARDATION IS COLLAPSING: +$26.50/t from +$89.50 a session earlier and +$125.00 on 24 September. Stocks 250,475t, down only 875t. The squeeze is unwinding on the curve before it shows in the price |
| Iron ore | $96.59/t | −0.14 | ⚠ CORRECTION: there WAS a 29 September print at $96.73 — yesterday's "the streak stands at fifteen" was wrong. China shut 1–7 October, so this benchmark goes dark or stale for about ten days |
| Aluminium · Lithium · Uranium | $3,208.60/t · CNY 122,800/t · $89.50/lb | −0.25% · −0.49% · — | Aluminium at a four-week low. Lithium −22.5% on the month to an eight-month low, and the cause is measurement: a vendor methodology change added ~175kt to Chinese stockpile estimates. Uranium has no 30 Sep print |
| BTC · ETH · SOL | $83,547 · $2,668.98 · $117.30 | +0.04% · −0.69% · −1.15% | ⚠ The synchronicity precondition failed again — the two reference pages are ~13 hours apart, so changes are derived from verified priors rather than pasting one page's percentages onto another's levels. BTC rose 42.5% in Q3 and is testing a long-term-holder cost cluster at $84–85k. Market cap $2.97tn, dominance 56.5%, Fear & Greed 43 |
| Spot BTC ETF flows | +$66.2m (29 Sep) | from +$31.0m | ⚠ The 30 September row shows the 0.0 placeholder — that is NOT a zero. A modest re-acceleration. ⚠ ETH ETF flows for 29 Sep are contested between +$17.09m and −$2.81m and are not published |
| Crypto derivatives | OI $69.4bn | liq. $150.8m | Scope stated: this is the sum of per-asset open interest — BTC $26.6bn, ETH $18.0bn — not a single market-wide contract. ⚠ The source carries no timestamp. Coin-margined BTC OI is reportedly at its lowest since March |
Conventions: 1d = change on the 30 September session. US cash equity levels are derived — settled ETF percentage change applied to a verified prior close — because no US cash index had posted a 30 September close at filing time; the method and the ETF stamp are given in each row. "≈" marks a derived or intraday value. Yields in %, changes in bp. Gold is spot; Comex futures noted separately where they conflict. Brent is the November 2026 contract unless labelled otherwise. Negative signs are U+2212. Every figure carries one of four evidence states — verified (read from the primary issuer), corroborated (two independent secondaries agreeing), derived (computed here from verified inputs) or unverified (single, disputed or stale, and said so in the text).
What is driving markets
1. Part of this disinflation was written rather than observed
Core PCE at 3.0% y/y against a 3.3% consensus is a 30 basis point miss, and it moved the October meeting from a 71.2% hike to a 39.0% hike inside a session. But the BEA's annual update, published with the same release, changed how it measures prices for portfolio-management fees, legal services and software, with revisions running back to 2021 — and it revised July's core y/y from 3.3% to 3.0% as well. Goldman and JPMorgan had both flagged a methodological drag of 0.1–0.2pp in advance; the realised drag was larger. Set against that, the activity data in the same twenty-four hours were strong: real spending +0.6%, the best since March 2025; ADP +90K against roughly 68K; the Chicago PMI 58.8 against 51.2, its highest since May. The single soft reading, Conference Board confidence at 81.9, is a survey and is single-sourced. The reading here — and it is a reading, not an observation — is that the market has repriced the policy path on a measurement change while the demand data pointed the other way.
2. The long end has stopped responding to inflation data running
The 30-year traded to roughly 5.63% on a session in which core inflation undershot by 30 basis points and the Fed was repriced dovish. That is through the 5.612% printed two sessions earlier, itself the highest since June 2002. The pattern is now three sessions old: Tuesday's bear steepener came on a consumer-confidence collapse, Wednesday's came on a soft PCE, and in both the front end rallied and the long end did not follow. The official par curve for 29 September has 5s30s at 53bp and 2s10s at 37bp, both a basis point wider than this desk derived from vendor levels — a small thing that matters, because it shows the primary is steeper than the vendor picture, not flatter. The same behaviour is visible abroad and is not a US artefact: the French 10-year rose 61bp in September and 113bp over the quarter, its largest quarterly rise since 1987, and Bunds are +27bp on the month having touched a 17-year high.
3. Credit is widening as beta, not as credit running
CCC spreads crossed the level this desk named in advance — 1,157bp at 29 September, through the 1,150 confirmation line — and the confirmation nonetheless fails, because the trigger required investment grade to be flat and IG printed 84bp, one basis point wider, in a sixth consecutive session of widening. The more useful number is the ratio: CCC/IG held at 13.8×, unchanged, having compressed from 14.1× the session before. If the low-quality tail were decompressing idiosyncratically that ratio would be rising. It is not. Everything is moving together, which is what a rates shock transmitted through duration looks like, not what a default cycle looks like. The corroborating evidence sits on the primary side rather than in the spread series: September high-yield issuance of $38.51bn was the heaviest month of 2026 into the widest spreads in five months, and the largest high-yield corporate sale on record priced a week ago at 9.875% for seven-and-a-half-year BB+ paper.
4. Australia's tightening is being delivered by lenders, on a date, not by the Bank
The monthly CPI told two stories and the market believed the second. Headline accelerated to 4.0% y/y from 3.5%, but automotive fuel rose 14.8% m/m as the federal excise relief ended on 3 August, and the trimmed mean held at 3.6% y/y for a third month with a 0.2% m/m print against 0.3% expected — market services excluding volatiles actually fell 0.4% m/m. November pricing collapsed from 35–40% to roughly 20%, the 3-year rallied to 4.93% and the ASX rose 0.92% led by real estate +3.7%. Meanwhile the correction to yesterday's edition runs the other way: all four major banks have now confirmed the full 25bp pass-through, effective 9 October. Yesterday this desk published that only one lender and none of the big four had moved, and built an argument on it. That was wrong within a day. The mechanism is intact but its shape is different: the household channel does not tighten gradually and invisibly, it tightens on 9 October, for everyone, by 25bp, about $79 a month on a $500,000 loan — into housing values that fell for a sixth consecutive month in September.
5. The quarter ended with its widest index dispersion, and the reversal was the message
On the last session of Q3 the Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P 0.23% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.25% — a 110 basis point Dow-versus-NDX split, the widest of the quarter. More informative than the dispersion is the path: the S&P was up 0.58% at midday, around 7,715, and closed roughly 80 basis points below that. A market that buys a dovish inflation print at 09:00 and gives it all back by 16:00 is telling you the bid is not conviction. Europe closed its first losing month in six and every major index there fell. The one place the bid was real was Asian semiconductors — Taiwan +1.12% to within 438 points of its record, Japan +1.28% — and that is the trade the Fund Manager Survey says 53% of the world is already in. Note also what is not evidence: this desk published yesterday that net dealer gamma was negative on four sources, and it does not reproduce. Only one dated source shows negative gamma, at the 29 September close; three sources dated 30 September show it positive. That correction is in §13 and it weakens a leg of the equity view rather than strengthening it.
Central bank watch
Fed funds pricing — implied probabilities by meeting
| Bank | Policy rate | Last move / vote | Next decision (Sydney) | Market pricing | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed | 3.75–4.00% | +25bp 16 Sep, 12–0. Chair Warsh. Out of blackout until 17 Oct — eight speakers scheduled tonight | Thu 29 Oct · 05:00 AEDT · no SEP · 8–9 Dec carries one | ⚠ 13:55 ET intraday: October hike 39.0% against the 71.2% carried — a 32-point collapse on the PCE print. December: no-hike 10.3%, one-hike 57.3%, two-hike 32.5% against 58.6% carried. January adds a 46.1% modal +50bp. Goldman has moved its hike call from October to December | Hawkish, but the path has been cut |
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp 29 Sep, unanimous. Fourth hike of 2026; highest since 2011. A hold was debated | Tue 3 Nov · 14:30 AEDT · presser 15:30 · with a full SMP | ⚠⚠ ~20%, down from 35–40% pre-CPI. The "~43%" carried yesterday is not supported by any source and is withdrawn. Westpac has moved November from a risk to its base case; one major outlet calls it unlikely. The 3y at 4.93% embeds +33bp over 4.60% — roughly 1.3 further hikes, down from 1.7 | Tightening, but the market has stood down |
| ECB | DFR 2.50% | +25bp 10 Sep; two hikes this year | Fri 30 Oct · 00:15 AEDT | ⚠⚠ UNRESOLVED ACROSS A WIDE RANGE: ~70% hold for October on one read, ~29% hike on another, against the ~49% carried. December to 2.75% is ~68% priced on the same source. Not published as a single figure. Lagarde: energy shocks could warrant more hikes, no second-round wage effects yet. Schnabel: do not wait for pass-through. De Marco backs October | Hawkish into an inflation shock |
| BoJ | 1.25% | +25bp 18 Sep, 7–2 | Meeting 29–30 Oct, decision Fri 30 Oct — resolved against the Bank's own schedule for a thirteenth consecutive edition | ~25.6% for October on a cached read; a former official puts it at 20–30%. The 2y at 1.97% embeds ~72bp over policy. ⚠ The Summary of Opinions for the September meeting is dated 10 November, not today — a carried date error corrected | Hiking |
| BoE | 3.75% | Held 17 Sep, 6–3 | Thu 5 Nov · 23:00 AEDT · with an MPR | ~87% for November, up from the ~80% carried. UK Q2 GDP revised up to +0.5% q/q. A 30-year gilt auction on Wed 7 October into a 5.93% long end and a 28 October Budget | Hiking |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp 2 Sep | Wed 28 Oct · 12:00 AEDT — a Review, not a full MPS | ⚠ Conflict: one tracker prices an 89% hold while a vendor narrative says a third hike is expected in October. Not resolved; direction only | Removing stimulus |
| Riksbank · Norges | 1.75% · 4.50% | Riksbank held 23 Sep in Gothenburg; Norges +25bp 24 Sep | ⭐ Riksbank RESOLVED after four editions: Wed 4 Nov, then 16 Dec · Norges Thu 5 Nov 20:00 AEDT | Riksbank guidance is that rate rises "will begin this year" — from its own September Monetary Policy Report. ⚠ The 4 November date is from two third-party calendars, not the Bank's own page, which still will not render | Tightening bias |
| BoC · SNB | 2.25% · 0.00% | BoC held 2 Sep; SNB held 24 Sep | BoC Thu 29 Oct · SNB Thu 10 Dec | Canadian GDP flat m/m against +0.4% expected. BoC pricing not obtained | On hold |
| PBoC | LPR 3.00% / 3.50% | Unchanged, 16th month | Tue 20 Oct · 12:15 AEDT | ⭐ The 30 Sep fix at 6.7351 is properly sourced and is a WEAK-yuan fix — 282 pips weaker than spot, above the 6.7025 estimate. A stimulus package with mortgage subsidies landed to a muted reaction. Mainland shut 1–7 October | Leaning against yuan strength |
| RBI | 5.25% | Held 5 Aug | Wed 7 Oct · ~15:30 AEDT | A hike to 5.50% is consensus — the first after a cutting cycle — into Rs 9,980 crore of single-day FII selling and elevated crude. ⚠ Date corroborated by calendar only | Turning hawkish |
| Korea · Taiwan | 3.00% · 2.00% | Korea +25bp 27 Aug | Korea Thu 22 Oct · Taiwan 17 Dec | Forecasts point to 3.25%. Foreigners sold ₩9tn of Korean equities over three sessions | Tightening · Hold |
| Banxico · Brazil · CNB | 6.50% · 13.75% · 3.75% | Brazil cut 25bp 16 Sep; Banxico held | Banxico Thu 5 Nov · Brazil ~4 Nov · CNB Fri 6 Nov | Brazil remains the G20 outlier, easing into a hiking G10 | Easing · Hawkish |
| SARB · Indonesia · Turkey | 7.25% · 5.75% · 37.00% | SARB +25bp 23 Sep unanimous | SARB 19 Nov · Turkey 22 Oct · Indonesia unconfirmed, third edition | Pricing not obtained for any of the three | Mixed |
Fed detail — tonight is unusually dense. Eight officials are scheduled between 09:05 and 18:45 ET: Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook and Logan. That matters more than usual because the market has just cut October pricing by 32 points on a print whose softness is partly definitional, and because Williams's "no urgency, though one further increase may be appropriate late this year" on 29 September was itself the first leg of the repricing — the PCE print was the second. Barr has said further adjustments are likely needed; Goolsbee has called five and a half years above target "playing with fire". The FOMC minutes are Wednesday 7 October. Government funding runs to 11 December and no source suggests that has changed. The International Court of Trade heard argument on 30 September on the Section 122 tariffs that replaced the struck-down IEEPA regime.
RBA detail. The August monthly CPI is the first data point of the new cycle and it was read dovishly: trimmed mean 0.2% m/m against 0.3% expected, with the headline acceleration attributable to the fuel excise unwind. Pricing for 3 November fell to roughly 20%. Westpac has nonetheless moved a November hike from a risk to its base case, which is the split worth watching — the economists are more hawkish than the curve. The decisive date is the quarterly CPI on Wednesday 28 October, six days before the meeting, which is what Bullock explicitly pointed at. The pass-through news is the substantive change: all four majors confirmed the full 25bp effective 9 October.
ECB detail, and an honest gap. The euro area has just had a synchronised upside inflation surprise — Germany 3.3% against 3.1% expected, France 3.4% on the harmonised measure, Italy 4.2%, Spain 4.9–5.0% — with the aggregate flash still to come and consensus at 3.6–3.7% against 3.2%. October pricing could not be resolved: reads span roughly 29% to 70% across sources and the carried ~49% cannot be corroborated, so no single figure is published. That is a real gap on the week's most repricing-sensitive meeting and it is the first verification target tomorrow.
Regional briefs
United States
The economy beat and the inflation gauge missed, and the market only traded the second one. Core PCE 3.0% y/y against 3.3%, headline 3.4% against 3.7% — but real spending +0.6% was the strongest since March 2025, ADP printed +90K against ~68K and the Chicago PMI printed 58.8 against 51.2. October hike odds fell from 71.2% to 39.0% and December's two-hike bucket from 58.6% to 32.5%; Goldman moved its hike call from October to December. The long end ignored all of it and made a new 24-year high at ~5.63%. Equities reversed 80bp from a midday high into a lower close on the last day of the quarter, with the Dow −0.85% against the Nasdaq-100 +0.25%. Micron then beat by roughly $3bn of revenue and guided FQ1 to $61.5bn. Payrolls on Friday (consensus +90K against +162K, unemployment 4.1%) and the 30-year auction on 8 October are the two things that can move this tape.
Euro area
A synchronised upside inflation surprise, and equities closed their first losing month in six. German flash CPI 3.3% against 3.1% expected with energy +14.9% y/y and core steady at 2.4%; France 3.4% harmonised, Italy 4.2%, Spain 4.9–5.0%. The aggregate flash is still pending and consensus sits at 3.6–3.7% against 3.2%. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.50% to 634.89, −2.5% on the month and −1.0% on the quarter; the DAX closed below its 100-day and the CAC below 8,000 for the first time since 20 May. EUR/USD fell to 1.1312, its weakest since May 2025, on the day its inflation data surprised higher — the rates differential is not the driver, the growth and fiscal reads are. The French PLF 2027 goes to the Conseil des ministres today with a stated €54bn of consolidation and a 5.0% deficit target, and the AFT sells long-dated OATs the same morning.
United Kingdom
Better growth, worse gilts, and a Budget four weeks out. Q2 GDP was revised up to +0.5% q/q from +0.4%; November is now roughly 87% priced, up from ~80%. Against that the long end is the problem: the 30-year sits near 5.93% and the 10-year around 5.42% on a page dated 29 September — no 30 September gilt level could be obtained, for the fifth logged occasion on this market. The FTSE 100 fell 0.29% to 10,606.00, though the carried prior for it was itself wrong by ~14 points. A 30-year gilt auction lands on Wednesday 7 October, into a 28 October Budget and a bond market that has spent the quarter repricing term premium. The FTSE 250 outperformed sharply at +0.68%.
Japan
Equities took the semiconductor bid and the data went the other way. The Nikkei rose 1.28% to ~66,318.81 and the TOPIX ~0.86% to ~4,076.04, with SoftBank +358 yen. Against that, August industrial production fell 1.7% m/m against +1.7% expected and retail sales rose 2.7% y/y against 3.3%. The 29 September TOPIX underperformance is now confirmed as an ex-dividend artefact — roughly 380 of the Nikkei's 396-point fall that session — which retires a data point several commentaries read as risk-off. The JGB 10-year is 3.10%, just off 30-year highs after a strong 40-year auction, and the 2-year at 1.97% still embeds ~72bp over the 1.25% policy rate against ~26% priced for October. The Tankan is due 09:50 AEST today, consensus +26 for large manufacturers against +22. Japanese single-stock and sector relative value remains unsourceable through this toolchain for a nineteenth consecutive edition.
China & Hong Kong
The mainland went into a ten-day closure with its first expansionary manufacturing PMI in months. The official manufacturing survey returned to expansion at 50.1 (consensus 50.1, prior 49.8) with production 51.7 and new orders 50.5, and non-manufacturing beat at 50.2 against 49.3. The private survey — now published as RatingDog rather than Caixin, a name change worth noting before someone reads it as a new series — had manufacturing 52.1 and services 51.6. Shanghai rose 0.31% to 3,842.19, Shenzhen slipped 0.11%, and the Hang Seng rose 0.37% to 24,613.27 on Xiaomi and Meituan. A stimulus package with mortgage subsidies and expanded central-bank funding, reported single-source as the largest since September 2024, produced a muted response. Mainland markets are shut 1–7 October and Hong Kong today only; there is no fresh China input for roughly ten days, and iron ore goes dark with it. Size the 8 October gap risk deliberately.
Emerging Asia & LatAm
Taiwan is trading the AI cycle and Korea is trading the exit. The TAIEX rose 1.12% to 48,163.78, within 438 points of its record, with TSMC +1.2%, MediaTek +2.8% and Delta +3.0%. Korea fell for a third consecutive session, the KOSPI −0.48% to 6,838.04, with Samsung Electronics −1.47% while SK hynix rose; foreigners sold ₩2.05tn on the day and roughly ₩9tn over three sessions, and insurance fell 3.27%. The two markets have decoupled inside the same theme, which is unusual and worth watching into Micron's read-through today. India was flat to lower — Sensex −0.07%, Nifty −0.42% — with FII selling of Rs 9,980 crore, a four-month high, into an RBI meeting on 7 October where a hike to 5.50% is consensus; the market is shut Friday. Brazil holds Selic at 13.75% and remains the G20's easing outlier.
Australia & New Zealand
The CPI that accelerated and cut the hike odds
The August monthly indicator printed 4.0% y/y, up from 3.5% in July and in line with consensus — the 4.1% figure circulating yesterday is not supported. Headline m/m was 0.4% in original terms against a 0.5% market forecast (the ABS also publishes 0.7% seasonally adjusted, which is the likely source of a competing 0.2% figure). The composition is what the market traded: automotive fuel rose 14.8% m/m against 7.5% in July as the federal excise relief ended on 3 August, while the trimmed mean held at 3.6% y/y for a third consecutive month with a 0.2% m/m print against 0.3% expected, and Westpac's market-services-ex-volatiles measure actually fell 0.4% m/m to 3.3% y/y. Housing rose 5.7% y/y with electricity +13.2%, new dwellings +5.4% and rents +3.6%; tobacco +11.5%.
The repricing was immediate and large. November moved from 35–40% to roughly 20%. The AUD fell to a nine-week low around 0.6976 and the 10-year fell ~2bp to 5.35%, having been 5.329% intraday. Westpac nonetheless moved a November hike from a risk to its base case, so the economists and the curve now disagree materially — that gap is the trade in Australian rates over the next month. Bullock is reported to have said the Board seriously considered holding on 29 September. The decisive date remains the quarterly CPI on Wednesday 28 October, six days before the meeting.
Markets: a rate-sensitive rally, and a correction that matters
The ASX 200 rose 0.92% to 8,789.3, the chain tying exactly to the prior, with breadth 144 advancers to 53 decliners. The leadership was precisely the rate-sensitive complex: real estate +3.7%, consumer discretionary +2.6%, telecoms +2.3%, industrials +1.6%. Charter Hall rose 6.4% to $18.86, Lendlease 11.3%, Karoon 9%, Northern Star 7%. A sector-count conflict is unresolved — one source has all eleven sectors higher, another has IT alone down 0.4%. September closed −3.2% for the index. Volume, turnover and the A-VIX could not be obtained for a sixth consecutive edition, and that line is now formally dropped rather than carried as a standing gap. No dated SPI quote was obtainable.
The correction that matters: all four majors — CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ — have confirmed the full 25bp pass-through, effective 9 October, roughly $79 a month on a $500,000 loan. Yesterday's edition published that exactly one lender had announced a variable move and none of the big four, and built a structural argument on it. That is withdrawn. The household channel does not tighten invisibly; it tightens on a date, nine days from now.
ACGB curve, on corrected priors. 2y 4.95%, 3y 4.93%, 10y 5.35%, with 3s10s at 42bp and 2s10s at 40bp. The carried priors of 5.06 / 5.02 / 5.43 were wrong — 29 September was 4.97 / 4.95 / 5.37. On the corrected basis the premium over the 4.60% cash rate is +35bp at the 2-year and +33bp at the 3-year, roughly 1.3 further hikes, against the +46/+42 and 1.7 hikes published yesterday. The front end has given back about a third of a hike since the decision.
Property, and the China link that just went dark
The September Cotality Home Value Index, on a secondary source published today, has national values −1.1% m/m, a sixth consecutive fall, −5.2% from the March peak and 0.0% y/y, with Brisbane −1.5%, Sydney −1.4%, Melbourne −0.7% and Perth still +10.1% y/y. ⚠ The Sydney figure is identical to August's and should be checked against the primary before it is relied on. Dwelling approvals fell 6.1%, and household spending was unchanged — which settles a two-edition dispute in favour of "flat" over the competing "+1.1% m/m, +7.0% y/y". Set the sixth consecutive monthly fall in values against a 25bp mortgage increase landing on 9 October and the household channel is doing the Bank's work for it.
Iron ore closed at $96.59/t, having printed $96.73 on 29 September — correcting yesterday's claim that no 29 September observation existed. With the mainland shut 1–7 October there is no fresh Chinese demand signal, and no iron ore benchmark, for about ten days. The last mainland input before the closure was a manufacturing PMI back above 50 for the first time in months, which is mildly supportive, and a stimulus package the market did not believe.
New Zealand
The NZX 50 rose 1.10% to 13,834.39, the chain tying exactly, with Hallenstein Glasson +5.4%, Delegat +3.3% and Summerset +3.3%. Business confidence fell to a three-month low. NZD/USD sat around 0.5646. The RBNZ's 28 October meeting is a Monetary Policy Review rather than a full MPS, and its pricing is genuinely contested — one tracker has an 89% hold while a vendor narrative describes a third hike as expected, and neither could be corroborated. The trans-Tasman policy gap is 4.60% against 2.75%, which is the mechanical basis of the AUD/NZD view, though this session the cross fell on Australian dovishness rather than rising on it.
| Australia — key data trail | Latest | Prior | Next release (Sydney) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | 4.35% | Tue 3 Nov 14:30 AEDT with a full SMP · ~20% priced |
| Monthly CPI headline · trimmed mean (Aug) | 4.0% · 3.6% y/y | 3.5% · 3.6% | Sep: late Oct · Q3 quarterly CPI Wed 28 Oct — the decisive print |
| Monthly CPI m/m (Aug) | +0.4% orig. (+0.7% s.a.) | +1.0% | Trimmed mean +0.2% m/m against +0.3% expected |
| Cotality home values (Sep) | −1.1% m/m (6th fall) | −0.9% (Aug) | −5.2% from the March peak; 0.0% y/y. ⚠ Secondary source |
| Household spending (Aug) | unchanged | disputed | ⭐ Settles a two-edition conflict in favour of "flat" |
| Dwelling approvals | −6.1% | — | Month not stated on the release index |
| Unemployment | 4.6% | 4.5% | Next labour force late Oct |
| Mortgage pass-through | All four majors, full 25bp | — | Effective Fri 9 October · ~$79/month on $500,000 |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 3s10s | 4.93 · 5.35% · 42bp | 4.95 · 5.37 · 42bp | Premium over cash: 3y +33bp ≈ 1.3 hikes |
| Iron ore | $96.59/t | $96.73 (29 Sep) | Dark 1–7 Oct with the mainland |
House views & tactical framework
The item that matters most is that a standing action item is discharged and a view can be marked again. The OAT–Bund spread has been unmarkable for two consecutive editions, and yesterday's edition recorded the dedicated same-page series as a dead route rather than a lagging one, because it returned a 404. It resolved on the first attempt this morning. The spread is 111.2bp at 29 September against an entry of roughly 94bp — seventeen basis points in the money, and 111.2bp is the top of its own twelve-month range against a 74.2bp average. The lesson is the mirror of the one learned two days ago about carried priors: a route that fails twice is not necessarily dead, and declaring it dead cost this desk a mark it was entitled to. Conviction rises Low to Med.
The second item is a correction that weakens rather than strengthens the equity view, and it is published as such. Yesterday's edition stated that net dealer gamma was negative on all four sources carrying 29 September data, and used it as a supporting leg for V028. It does not reproduce. Exactly one dated source shows negative net gamma — roughly −$10.0bn at the 29 September close — with one narrative corroboration; three sources dated 30 September show it positive, between +$3.1bn and +$45.4bn, with spot sitting near the flip. The call wall at ~7,700 against a put wall at ~7,650 does reproduce. So the pin is real and the short-gamma claim is not. V028 keeps its conviction because breadth, skew and the rates picture carry it, but it no longer rests on dealer positioning, and the note should stop saying it does.
| Asset | Bias | Conv. | Horizon | Rationale | What changes the view |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 2-year (V029) NEW | Bias higher in yield — fade the dovish repricing | Low | 2–6 wk | Opened today. October hike odds fell from 71.2% to 39.0% and the December two-hike bucket from 58.6% to 32.5% on a core PCE print the BEA had just rewritten — the annual update changed price measurement for portfolio-management fees, legal services and software back to 2021 and cut core by more than Goldman and JPMorgan had flagged, revising July's core y/y from 3.3% to 3.0% as well. The same twenty-four hours produced real spending +0.6%, the strongest since March 2025; ADP +90K against ~68K; and a Chicago PMI of 58.8 against 51.2. Activity beat and the disinflation was partly definitional. Critically, almost none of the repricing is in the instrument: the 2-year moved about a basis point on the day, to ≈4.88%, against a 32-point collapse in October odds. Entry reference: official par 2y 4.89% (29 Sep) | CONDITION, pre-committed: two consecutive closes below 4.75% on the official par 2-year closes this view. A September payrolls print below +50K on Friday 2 October closes it immediately, whatever the level. Confirmation: the official par 2-year back above 5.00% with October hike odds above 55%, at which point conviction goes to Med. ⚠ The honest risk is that the methodology argument is right and irrelevant — the Fed reacts to the published series, not to the series it would have published under the old basis |
| S&P 500 (V028) | Own downside convexity, not delta | Med | 2–4 wk | Working: ≈7,653.0 derived against a 7,743.41 reference, ≈−1.17%, having confirmed at 7,670.84 on a trigger this desk refused to move. The session's shape is the evidence: up 0.58% at midday on the PCE print and ~80bp lower into the bell, with the Dow −0.85% against the Nasdaq-100 +0.25% — the widest dispersion of the quarter. Breadth is the load-bearing leg: 47.90% of members above their own 200-day while the index sits 6.4% above its, and 38 new highs against 384 new lows across 4,743 names, with the McClellan at −36.57 and 3 of 4 Hindenburg conditions met. ⚠⚠ THE GAMMA LEG IS WITHDRAWN — see above; only one dated source shows negative net GEX and three show positive. ⚠⚠ THE BUYBACK BLACKOUT LEG IS ALSO WITHDRAWN — see below. ⭐ The honest counterweight is unchanged and stale: 19.2× forward against a 19.8× five-year average, Q3 growth +29.1%, margins 15.0%, from a 25 September vintage. Not one bearish item here is a valuation argument | UNCHANGED: two consecutive closes above 7,800 closes this view. The 7,680 confirm has fired. ⭐ The level that matters is the 50-day at 7,645.24 — roughly eight points below the derived close and essentially on the put wall. The 200-day at 7,213.36 is 6% away and irrelevant on this horizon; both moving averages pass the window-arithmetic plausibility check. MOVE is 106.61, not the 101.82 carried — that was Monday's close |
| OAT–Bund (V025) | Widener | Med ↑ | 1–3 mo | ⭐⭐ MARKABLE AGAIN AND SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MONEY: 111.2bp at 29 September against a ~94bp entry — +17.2bp — with OAT 4.74 and Bund 3.63 read from the same page at the same timestamp. The route declared dead yesterday resolved on the first attempt; the 404 was intermittent, and calling it dead cost a mark. 111.2bp is the top of its own twelve-month range against a 74.2bp average, and the session change was +5.8bp. The structural evidence keeps building: the French 10-year rose 61bp in September and 113bp over the quarter, its largest quarterly rise since 1987. ⚠ No 30 September print; the legs imply wider still. ⚠ A rival same-page source reads 120.8bp on a different benchmark basis — a 9bp basis gap, so the series is named and held | A compression inside 80bp. Also a credible French consolidation, or a dovish ECB October. ⚠⚠ THE CATALYST IS TODAY AND THE DATE HAS MOVED BACK: the PLF 2027 Conseil des ministres is Thursday 1 October, corroborated three ways — not 30 September as published yesterday, which was itself a correction of the 1 October date published the day before. Stated targets: €54bn of consolidation, a 5.0% deficit, defence +€6.4bn, the tax scale and civil-service pay frozen, the large-corporate surtax cut to ~€5bn from ~€8bn. ⭐ So the same-day collision IS back on: France sells long-dated OATs, alongside a Spanish 10-year, on the morning its budget lands. ⚠ The "four RN conditions" carried for two editions could not be confirmed and is withdrawn |
| US credit (V017) | UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG | Med | 1–3 mo | ⭐⭐ THE FIRST CONDITION FIRED AND THE SECOND MISSED BY A BASIS POINT. CCC is 1,157bp at 29 September — through the 1,150 confirmation level — with HY 308bp and IG 84bp. IG widened 1bp, against +4bp the session before, in a sixth consecutive session of widening. The trigger reads "with IG flat". One basis point is not flat; it also sits inside the series' own 1bp display rounding, so it cannot be adjudicated in either direction. This desk does not round its own trigger in its own favour, so the view does not confirm. The diagnostic is the real content: the CCC/IG ratio held at 13.8×, so the whole complex is still moving together — rates beta, not idiosyncratic decompression. The short leg is paying and the long 3–5y IG leg is bleeding. Corroboration on the primary side: September HY issuance of $38.51bn was the heaviest month of 2026 into the widest spreads in five months | UNCHANGED: CCC inside 1,050bp with IG unchanged or tighter closes this; through 1,150bp WITH IG FLAT confirms it and conviction goes to High. ⭐ The 30 September observation decides it and it is the single highest-value datapoint of the week: CCC is already through, so the entire question is whether IG stops widening. If IG prints flat or tighter, the view confirms. If both keep moving together, the credit framing should be dropped and the position expressed in duration — that is a pre-committed conclusion, not a discretionary one |
| ASX 200 (V006) | Underweight | Low ↓ | 2–4 wk | +2.40% in favour from the 9,005.9 entry, having given back nearly a full percent on the session — and the composition was adverse in a way that matters. The index rose 0.92% to 8,789.3 led by real estate +3.7%, discretionary +2.6% and telecoms +2.3% — the rate-sensitive complex this view is short — on a dovish CPI repricing that took November from 35–40% to ~20%. Conviction falls Med to Low, because the view's primary leg was RBA hike risk and the market has substantially priced it out. What survives is slower and more concrete: all four majors pass through the full 25bp on 9 October, roughly $79 a month on a $500,000 loan, into a sixth consecutive monthly fall in home values (−1.1% in September, −5.2% from the March peak). ⚠ That pass-through fact is itself a correction of yesterday's "one lender, none of the big four" | The original trigger did NOT fire — it reads "an RBA hold 29 September" and the Bank hiked. ⭐ The resolution date is the quarterly CPI on Wednesday 28 October, six days before the meeting, which is what the Governor pointed at. Adding a pre-committed condition, in writing: two consecutive closes above 8,900 close this view. Note the split worth watching — Westpac has moved a November hike from a risk to its base case while the curve prices ~20%; the economists are more hawkish than the market. ⛔ The A-VIX line is formally dropped after six consecutive sourcing failures rather than carried as a standing gap |
| Brent (V024) | Residual call spread only — no new risk | Low | 1–3 mo | ≈$103.34 on the November contract, ~2.7% above the $100.60 reference — and the re-own band is now further away, not closer, partly because our own prior was wrong. ⚠⚠ THE CONTESTED CHANGE BASE IS RESOLVED AGAINST THIS DESK: the 28 September settles were Brent Nov $105.28 and WTI $92.60, not the $107.71 / $96.23 we published, and no source supports our figures. Tuesday's move was −2.6%, not −4.65%. Two signals cut against the bullish residual: the Nov–Dec spread has narrowed to ~$5.3–6.4 from the "above $7" carried, so front-end physical tightness is easing; and the SPR release adds up to 40m barrels. Two cut for it: the SPR's ceiling is now visible — the reserve is 286.6m against a 252.4m legal floor for non-emergency releases, and the Energy Secretary says further drawdowns are unlikely; and distillate stocks are 14% below the five-year average with diesel above $6 | UNCHANGED: two consecutive settles in the $92–95 band re-owns this outright. Now roughly 9–11% away. ⚠⚠ The asymmetry is unchanged and is the reason for no new risk: NYMEX WTI non-commercials are net long 141,106 contracts, 7.66% of open interest, so de-escalation is a long-liquidation event into a thin book, not a short squeeze. ⚠ The Saudi pipeline is at ~3.5 mbd against 7.0 mbd capacity; the "five to six weeks" restart timeline carried as Reuters sourcing could not be attributed to Reuters and is restated as Bloomberg's "about six weeks from shutdown" plus an unnamed expert |
| AUD/NZD (V023) | Long | Low | 1–2 mo | ⚠ The leg problem has returned one edition after it was declared solved. Same-table construction gives ≈1.2345 for 30 September, about +0.24% from the 1.2315 entry — but the identical construction applied to 29 September gives 1.2388 against the 1.24211 this desk carried, a 33-pip gap, so the mark sits in a contested 1.2345–1.2388 band. The session went against the view for the right reason: Australian dovish repricing, not a Kiwi move. The mechanical policy gap is unchanged at 4.60% against 2.75%. ⚠⚠ AUD remains the largest disagreement in the COT report and the count carried was wrong — see §09 | The original trigger did not fire. Remaining: a hawkish RBNZ on 28 October (a Review, not a full MPS), and a China shock hitting Australia harder. ⚠ RBNZ pricing is genuinely contested — an 89% hold on one tracker against a vendor narrative expecting a third hike — and is not published as a figure. Adding a pre-committed condition: two consecutive same-table closes below 1.2250 close this view, which removes the scope to argue about which leg was wrong after the fact |
One view opened, none closed, and the fourth consecutive decline of the same candidate — which has now cost money twice. V029 is the new one and the reasoning is in the table. The declined candidate is the 5s30s steepener, and the accounting has to be honest. It was declined on 24 September under the re-entry convention after V003 stopped out, and again on the 29th and 30th. The official par curve now has 5s30s at 53bp on 29 September against the 50bp at which it was last declined, and Wednesday produced a second consecutive bear steepener. Two of the four declines have now cost money, and the convention that produced them was already recorded as "paid for" yesterday. It is kept for one more session, and the override is pre-committed in writing so it cannot be argued about later: if the official par 5s30s closes at or above 56bp, the re-entry convention is overridden and the steepener is opened as a new view the following morning, with the entry taken at that level. A convention that can never be overridden is not a risk rule, it is a superstition.
Two load-bearing inputs behind the equity view are formally withdrawn today, and neither was withdrawn because the market moved. The first is dealer gamma, above. The second is the buyback blackout, which has been a standing action item for two editions and now has an answer: it cannot be sourced, and it is probably inverted. The only dated origin is a 31 August chart showing the open buyback window falling from roughly 60% of index weight in mid-August to roughly 35% by late September. The "61% in blackout" this note has carried appears to be that ~60% open share read backwards. And "no reopening until 1 November" is a house inference, not a sourced date — the same author describes windows reopening a day or two after each company's Q3 earnings, which begin mid-October on a rolling basis. The "no corporate bid" argument is removed from the note rather than resized. Note also that the most recent sourceable CTA sell-trigger range, 7,349–7,558, still sits below spot, which cuts against the forced-seller framing as well.
Portfolio-level read. Seven views, one opened, none closed; the scorecard is unchanged at 3 right / 12 wrong / 7 scratch across 22 decided. Better: V025 is markable, seventeen basis points in the money and at a twelve-month wide, with its catalyst today; V028 is working and its 50-day level is eight points away; V017's first condition fired exactly where it was written to. Worse, and plainly: V006's primary rationale has been repriced away and its conviction is cut; V023's marking method failed one edition after it was validated; V024's reference base was wrong in our own favour and the correction moves the re-own band further away; and two of the four supporting legs published under V028 yesterday do not survive verification. The pattern across the last three editions is consistent and worth naming: the views are surviving contact with the market better than the inputs are surviving contact with their sources.
These are analytical framings for a professional reader, expressed in the vernacular of a macro desk. They are not personalised investment advice, do not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism; each view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.
Positioning, flows & sentiment
| Indicator | Latest | Context | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC — data as of Tue 22 Sep, released Fri 25 Sep. Every contract below was rebuilt and all long- and short-side category columns sum back to printed open interest. The next release is Fri 2 Oct 15:30 ET, covering 29 September. | |||
| FX sign disagreements | 2 of 7, not 4 of 8 | AUD and GBP only | ⚠⚠ A CARRIED CLAIM DOES NOT REPRODUCE. Leveraged funds and legacy non-commercials point opposite ways on AUD (LF +58,726 vs legacy −46,814) and GBP (LF +13,239 vs legacy −82,568) only. EUR, JPY, CAD, CHF and MXN all agree in sign. And the dollar index cannot be a disagreement at all — it is an ICE contract with no TFF series, so only the legacy cut exists (net +10,330 on OI of 46,328) |
| AUD — the largest disagreement | LF +58,726 / legacy −46,814 | OI 306,488, matching across both pages | The open interest ties to the contract on both cuts, which is the strongest available evidence that this is genuine trader classification rather than a data error. Relevant to V023: do not mark a trans-Tasman view off speculative positioning |
| Treasuries — leveraged funds | 5 contracts sum to −6,122,144 | 2y −1,350,740 · 5y −1,858,062 · 10y −1,926,947 · bond −162,052 · ultra-bond −824,343 | ⚠ The carried six-contract total of 6,517,822 implies ~395,678 in the ultra-10-year, which was not independently reproduced this run and is therefore carried, not verified. The position is consistent with substantial basis-trade exposure — the data does not prove the economic purpose. LF spreading is large (5y 357,241, 10y 145,167) |
| E-mini S&P — LF net | −375,574 | legacy −133,228 | Both cuts agree in sign and direction |
| NYMEX WTI · COMEX gold (legacy non-commercial) | +141,106 · +225,853 | 7.66% · 54.71% of OI | Both match the carried figures exactly on the named series. Gold's 54.71% is the legacy non-commercial cut, not managed money — the conflation corrected two editions ago stays corrected. Brent non-commercial net −44,185 |
| Flows | |||
| BofA Flow Show (w/e ~23 Sep) | Bull & Bear 9.3 | sell signal | Global equities −$10.2bn, of which US equities −$21.1bn; bonds +$17.3bn, a 74th consecutive weekly inflow; private-client equity allocation 66.1%, cash 9.4%. Theme: "Debasement & Duration". Single proxy source. The week to 30 September is not yet available |
| ICI long-term funds + ETFs (w/e 23 Sep) | +$20.14bn | equity +$12.88bn | Label: ICI, not BofA/EPFR — the two cover different universes and must never be netted. Bond +$8.16bn; mutual funds −$19.67bn against ETFs +$39.81bn. Money market assets $7.94tn, +$15.0bn on the week, institutional +$15.26bn. ⛔ Lipper weekly flows remain formally dropped |
| Spot BTC ETFs | +$66.2m (29 Sep) | from +$31.0m | A modest re-acceleration; the five sessions to 29 September total ~$422m. ⚠ The 30 September row is the 0.0 placeholder, not a zero |
| Sentiment, options and volatility | |||
| AAII (w/e 23 Sep) | Bulls 32.7% · Bears 48.1% | spread −15.4 | Negative for a second week, having been −24.5 on 16 September. The next release is tonight, Thursday US time. Long-run averages are not quoted because the dated table does not carry them |
| BofA FMS (15 Sep edition) | Cash 3.9% · bonds net 48% UW | tail risk: disorderly yields, 33% | Cash, bond underweight and the top tail risk all re-verified. The most-crowded trade at 53% long global semiconductors could not be re-verified this run and is carried — it is the number Micron tests today. The October survey date is not published |
| VIX · VIX3M · contango | 16.04 · 18.09 · day 121 | ratio 0.8867 | ⭐ The 29 September VIX gap is closed at 16.04 against 16.07 on the 28th. Day 121 of an unbroken contango streak. No 30 September close on any route. VIX9D, VIX1D and put/call could not be obtained |
| MOVE | 106.61 (29 Sep) | +4.71% on the day | ⚠⚠ CORRECTION: the 101.82 carried yesterday was MONDAY 28 September's close, which was itself the first close above 100 since spring and the end of a +35% September. Tuesday's is 106.61. ⚠ The "tops 59 of the previous 60 readings" claim could not be verified, and a source describing it as a record is ranking against its own series, not the ICE BofA MOVE index — "record MOVE" is not written |
| CBOE SKEW | 146.3 (29 Sep) | 94th all-time pct | ⚠ Could not be refreshed on any route this run. The standing warning applies — this series has gone stale in three sessions before and a hedge premised on an old read is wrong in the wrong direction. Carried, not verified |
| Dealer gamma | ⚠ contested | 1 negative, 3 positive | ⚠⚠ THE CARRIED "NEGATIVE ON FOUR SOURCES" DOES NOT REPRODUCE. One dated source has net GEX ≈−$10.0bn at the 29 September close, with one narrative corroboration. Three sources dated 30 September show it positive, +$3.1bn to +$45.4bn, spot near the flip. What DOES reproduce is the pin: a call wall at ~7,700 against a put wall at ~7,650, on two independent sources. Cite, do not believe — these vendors disagree on sign and level, and dealer positioning is an assumption, not an observable |
| Breadth & technicals | 47.90% above 200d · 38 highs / 384 lows | McClellan −36.57 | Breadth is 28 September and one day stale; the mean is 65.29%. Highs-to-lows is roughly 1:10 across 4,743 names. 3 of 4 Hindenburg conditions met, status INACTIVE — the failing condition is new highs at 0.80% against a 2.2% threshold, so it cannot fire until highs recover, which makes the headline count less alarming than it reads. S&P 200-day 7,213.36, 50-day 7,645.24 (29 Sep); both pass the window-arithmetic plausibility check |
| Valuation & earnings — FactSet, 25 September edition, as of the 24 September close | |||
| Forward 12M P/E | 19.2× | 5-yr 19.8 · 10-yr 19.0 | At a discount to its own five-year average. ⚠ Now a week stale; the next edition lands Friday 2 October. Mechanically ~19.1× at current levels |
| Q3 growth · margins · reporting | +29.1% · 15.0% · 9 reported | guidance 72 pos / 44 neg | CY26 +32.0%, CY27 +15.4%; bottom-up target 9,275.04. The large banks open the season around 14 October. Micron has already reported and beat by ~$3.2bn of revenue |
| Sell-side targets | BofA 7,400 YE / 7,800 12m · Yardeni 7,900 | datelines 19 Sep · 16 Sep | ⚠ The BofA vintage is 19 September, not the 14 September carried. Yardeni's cut from 8,400 was made by taking the assumed forward multiple from 19.8× to 18.6× while leaving 2027 EPS at $425 untouched — at constant EPS that de-rate implies roughly 7,430 from spot, and 8,400 becomes a mid-2027 target. ⛔ A widely-ranked list of 7,500–8,100 targets is datelined 10 December 2025 and is not cited |
The week ahead
| Day | Sydney | ET | Event | Cons. | Prior | Imp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday 1 October — mainland China shut (to 7 Oct) · Hong Kong shut · quarter begins | ||||||
| Thu | 09:50 AEST | Wed 19:50 | Japan Tankan — large manufacturers DI | +26 | +22 | H |
| Thu | 17:30–18:00 | 03:30–04:00 | Euro-area, German, French, Italian, Spanish and UK final manufacturing PMIs | EZ 52.7 · UK 52.0 | same | L |
| Thu | ~18:50 | ~04:50 | AFT long-dated OAT auction + Spanish 10-year — on the morning the French budget lands | H | ||
| Thu | TBC | TBC | French PLF 2027 to the Conseil des ministres — €54bn consolidation, 5.0% deficit target | H | ||
| Thu | 19:00 | 05:00 | Euro-area unemployment | 6.4% | 6.4% | L |
| Thu | 22:30 | 08:30 | US initial jobless claims | 201K | 197K | M |
| Thu | 23:05–04:45 Fri | 09:05–18:45 | Eight Fed speakers — Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Logan · ECB Lagarde 23:30 | H | ||
| Fri | 00:00 AEST | 10:00 | US ISM manufacturing · prices paid | 54.8 · 72.9 | 54.6 · 71.1 | H |
| Friday 2 October — payrolls · India shut (Gandhi Jayanti) · Hong Kong reopens | ||||||
| Fri | 09:30 AEST | Thu 19:30 | Tokyo core CPI y/y | 2.4% | 1.8% | M |
| Fri | 19:00 | 05:00 | Euro-area flash HICP y/y · core ⚠ date contested between 1 and 2 October | 3.6–3.7% · 2.5% | 3.2% · 2.4% | H |
| Fri | 22:30 | 08:30 | US NON-FARM PAYROLLS · unemployment rate · average hourly earnings m/m | +90K · 4.1% · 0.3% | +162K · 4.1% · 0.3% | H |
| Sat | 06:30 AEST | Fri 16:30 | CFTC Commitments of Traders — 29 September data · FactSet Earnings Insight · BofA Flow Show | M | ||
| Weekend and the week of 5 October — Sydney moves to AEDT on Sunday 4 October | ||||||
| Sun 4 | TBC | TBC | OPEC+ online meeting — seven core producers; expected to hold November targets; 2027 quotas and baselines on the agenda | hold | H | |
| Mon 5 | 19:00–19:55 AEDT | 04:00–04:55 | Euro-area, German, French, UK, Italian final services PMIs · Sentix · Korea shut | EZ 53.0 | L | |
| Tue 6 | 01:00 AEDT | Mon 10:00 | US ISM services | 55.4 | M | |
| Tue 6 | 02:00 AEDT | Mon 11:00 | SPR exchange bids due (11:00 CT) — up to 40m bbl | M | ||
| Tue 6 | 17:00 · 23:30 | 02:00 · 08:30 | German factory orders · US trade balance | +2.5% · −$88.6bn | M | |
| Wed 7 | ~15:30 AEDT | ~00:30 | RBI decision — a hike to 5.50% is consensus, the first after a cutting cycle | 5.50% | 5.25% | H |
| Wed 7 | 18:00 | 03:00 | UK 30-year gilt auction — into a 5.93% long end and a 28 October Budget | H | ||
| Wed 7 | 05:00 Thu AEDT | 14:00 | FOMC MINUTES — the September meeting that hiked 12–0 | H | ||
| Thu 8 | all day | Mainland China reopens after ten days — size the gap risk · iron ore resumes · Eurogroup | H | |||
| Thu 8 | 22:30 | 07:30 | ECB account of the September meeting — the hike debate in detail | M | ||
| Thu 8 | 04:01 Fri AEDT | 13:01 | US 30-YEAR AUCTION — the single most important scheduled item for duration, into a ~5.63% long end | 5.31% prior high yield | H | |
| Fri 9 | 23:30 · 01:00 Sat | 08:30 · 10:00 | Canada jobs · US UoM preliminary sentiment and inflation expectations · Taiwan shut | −41.7K · 48.1 / 4.6% | M | |
| Beyond the window | ||||||
| 14 Oct | US September CPI — measured on the pre-revision basis, and therefore the cleanest test of the V029 thesis · large banks open Q3 reporting | H | ||||
| 16 · 20 · 22 Oct | Monthly opex · PBoC LPR · Bank of Korea | M | ||||
| 28–30 Oct | Australian quarterly CPI Wed 28 Oct (the decisive print for two views) · RBNZ Review 28 Oct · FOMC Thu 29 Oct 05:00 AEDT · BoC 29 Oct · ECB and BoJ Fri 30 Oct · UK Budget 28 Oct | H | ||||
⚠ Importance ratings are this desk's own judgement: the calendar vendor's impact column has failed to render on several recent days. ⚠ A second calendar vendor is column-shifted and must not be used for actuals or consensus — its first numeric column is the prior and its second the consensus — so no figure above comes from it. The euro-area flash HICP date is contested between Thursday and Friday and is shown on Friday with the conflict flagged. Sydney is AEST (UTC+10) to Saturday 3 October and AEDT (UTC+11) from Sunday 4 October; the US does not change until 1 November, so the offset moves from ET+14 to ET+15.
Risk radar
| # | Risk | Trigger / timing | Probability | Expression |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payrolls into a market that has just priced out two-thirds of an October hike | Fri 2 Oct 22:30 AEST | +90K cons. vs +162K | October odds fell 71.2% to 39.0% on a print whose softness is partly definitional, while ADP beat at +90K and the Chicago PMI printed 58.8. The asymmetry is inverted from the usual: a strong print now reprices the Fed back and hits both legs, while a weak one validates the move. House estimates span +50K to +100K. Own convexity, not direction — and note the 2-year has barely moved, which is the cheapest place to express it (V029) |
| 2 | The long end is no longer responding to inflation data, so the auction is the event | US 30-year auction Thu 8 Oct 04:01 AEDT | — | The 30-year made a new 24-year high at ~5.63% on the day core PCE undershot by 30bp. If a downside inflation surprise cannot bid the long end, the bid must come from supply management. Two bear steepeners in two sessions; 5s30s 53bp official at 29 Sep. ⚠ The steepener has now been declined four times and the override is pre-committed at 56bp — see §08 |
| 3 | The credit test resolves tonight and the answer is binary | The 30 September IG/HY/CCC observation | CCC 1,157bp, through 1,150 | CCC has already crossed. The entire question is whether IG stops widening — it printed +1bp against +4bp the day before, in a sixth consecutive session of widening. Flat or tighter confirms V017 and takes conviction to High; another 4bp and the credit framing should be dropped for a duration expression. A pre-committed conclusion either way |
| 4 | Micron's beat meets the most-crowded trade on a half-shut Asian tape | Today's Asian session | crowded trade 53% | FQ4 revenue $54.23bn against ~$51.07bn, EPS $33.42 against $31.61, FQ1 guided to $61.5bn. Hong Kong and the mainland are shut, so Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei price it alone. Korea has already fallen three sessions with foreigners selling ~₩9tn; Taiwan is 438 points from its record. The two markets have decoupled inside one theme, which is the thing to watch |
| 5 | France sells long-dated paper on the morning its budget lands | Today: PLF 2027 Conseil des ministres + AFT long OAT + Spanish 10-year | — | ⭐ The same-day collision is back on after the date moved twice. Stated targets: €54bn consolidation, 5.0% deficit, defence +€6.4bn, tax scale and civil-service pay frozen. OAT–Bund is 111.2bp, the top of its twelve-month range; the OAT rose 113bp over the quarter, its most since 1987. V025 is long this. ⚠ Censure risk is real but the "four RN conditions" carried for two editions is withdrawn as unconfirmable |
| 6 | China is dark for ten days and reopens into whatever happened | Shut 1–7 Oct, reopens Thu 8 Oct | Mfg PMI 50.1 | The last input was a manufacturing PMI back above 50 for the first time in months and a stimulus package the market did not believe. Iron ore goes dark with it. Hong Kong reopens tomorrow and is the only venue pricing China in the interim. Size the 8 October gap explicitly rather than discovering it |
| 7 | Europe has a synchronised inflation surprise and no aggregate print yet | Euro-area flash HICP, 1 or 2 Oct | 3.6–3.7% cons. vs 3.2% | Germany 3.3% against 3.1%, France 3.4%, Italy 4.2%, Spain 4.9–5.0%. ⚠⚠ ECB October pricing could not be resolved — reads span ~29% to ~70% and the carried ~49% cannot be corroborated. That is a genuine gap on the most repricing-sensitive meeting of the month, and it is tomorrow's first verification target |
| 8 | The index is held up by a minority of its members | Continuous; confirmation below ~7,645 | — | 47.90% of members above their own 200-day while the index sits 6.4% above its; 38 new highs against 384 new lows across 4,743 names; McClellan −36.57. The 50-day at 7,645.24 is roughly eight points below the derived close and coincides with the put wall. Equal-weight protection rather than cap-weight |
| 9 | Australia's mortgage rates rise on a date, into a sixth month of falling home values | Fri 9 Oct, then quarterly CPI Wed 28 Oct | Nov ~20% priced | All four majors pass through the full 25bp, ~$79/month on $500,000. Values −1.1% in September, −5.2% from the March peak. Westpac has November as its base case against a curve at ~20% — the economists and the market disagree materially, and that gap is the trade in Australian rates |
| 10 | Crude's downside is long-liquidation and the SPR's ceiling is now visible | OPEC+ Sun 4 Oct · SPR bids Tue 6 Oct | — | NYMEX WTI non-commercials net long 141,106 (7.66% of OI). The SPR release is an exchange, not a sale, and the reserve is 286.6m against a 252.4m legal floor — the tool is nearly spent. Against that, the Nov–Dec spread has narrowed to ~$5.3–6.4 from above $7, so front-end tightness is easing. Distillate stocks 14% below the five-year average with diesel above $6 is the leg that still binds |
| 11 | Deep protection is expensive and near-money protection is not — but the read is stale | Continuous | SKEW 146.3, 94th pct | ⚠ SKEW could not be refreshed on any route and is carried from 29 September. This series has gone stale in three sessions before. If it still holds, sell what is at its 94th percentile and buy what is not; if it has collapsed, the structure inverts. Re-source before sizing |
| 12 | Eight Fed speakers tonight into a 32-point repricing | Tonight 23:05–04:45 AEST | Oct 39.0% | Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook and Logan. Williams's "no urgency" on 29 September was the first leg of this repricing and the PCE print was the second; Goldman has already moved its hike call to December. The minutes on 7 October are the written record of a 12–0 hike that now looks like the top |
| 13 | The gilt long end takes a 30-year auction four weeks before the Budget | Wed 7 Oct 18:00 AEDT | Nov ~87% | The 30-year sits near 5.93% and no 30 September gilt level could be obtained for a fifth logged occasion. Q2 GDP was revised up to +0.5%. A weak auction into a 28 October Budget is the European long-end contagion channel |
| 14 | Two inputs behind the equity view were withdrawn today, and one more is stale | Research action, not a trade | — | Dealer gamma does not reproduce as negative; the buyback blackout percentage is unsourceable and probably inverted. The SKEW read is carried. Three of the four non-breadth legs under V028 are now weaker than published. The view is kept on breadth, rates and the reversal pattern — but it should be argued on those, and the note now does |
| 15 | Copper's backwardation is collapsing before the price moves | Continuous; LME settles daily | — | Cash–3M has gone +$125.00 (24 Sep) to +$89.50 (28 Sep) to +$26.50 (29 Sep) while stocks fell only 875t. A curve unwinding without a stock build is the squeeze ending, not the demand improving — and it is happening as China goes dark for ten days |
Key levels
| Instrument | Last | Support | Resistance | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ≈7,653.0 | 7,645.24 (50d) · ~7,650 (put wall) · 7,450 | ~7,700 (call wall) · 7,715 (30 Sep high) · 7,800 (V028 close) | Eight points above the 50-day, which coincides with the put wall. The 200-day at 7,213.36 is 6% away and irrelevant on this horizon; both averages pass the window-arithmetic check. ⚠ The short-gamma claim is withdrawn — only the pin reproduces |
| Dow · Nasdaq-100 | ≈50,912 · — | 50,500 | 51,349.92 (29 Sep) | A 110bp Dow-versus-NDX split, the widest of the quarter. The Composite and the Russell are not published — no settle existed at filing |
| UST 30y · 10y | ≈5.63% · ≈5.29% | 5.59 (29 Sep official) · 5.26 | 5.63 (NEW 24-YR HIGH) · 5.296 (52-wk) | ⭐⭐ A new high on the day core PCE undershot by 30bp. The official 29 September row posted: 30y 5.59, 10y 5.26 |
| UST 2y · 5s30s · 2s10s | ≈4.88% · ≈55 · ≈41bp | 4.75 (V029 closes) · 50 · 32 | 5.00 (V029 confirms) · 56 (steepener override) · 45 | The 2-year moved about a basis point on a 32-point collapse in October odds — which is the whole V029 argument in one line. Official 29 Sep: 2s10s 37bp, 5s30s 53bp, both 1bp wider than this desk derived |
| ACGB 3y · 10y · 3s10s | 4.93 · 5.35% · 42bp | 4.85 · 5.25 · 37 | 5.02 · 5.43 · 45 | ⚠ On corrected priors — 29 September was 4.97 / 4.95 / 5.37, not 5.06 / 5.02 / 5.43. The 3y embeds +33bp over 4.60%, ≈1.3 further hikes, down from 1.7 |
| Bund 10y · OAT–Bund · BTP–Bund | 3.5849% · 111.2bp · ~98.5bp | 3.50 · 80 (V025 closes) | 3.65 (17-yr high) · 111.2 (12-MO WIDE) | ⭐⭐ MARKABLE AGAIN AND AT ITS OWN TWELVE-MONTH WIDE, against a 74.2bp average. +17.2bp from entry. ⚠ A rival same-page basis reads 120.8bp — a 9bp basis gap; the series is named and held |
| Gilt 10y · 30y · JGB 10y | 5.42 · 5.93 · 3.10% | 5.30 · 5.80 · 3.00 | 5.50 · 6.00 · 3.11 | ⚠ Gilt levels are 29 September — no 30 September print, a fifth logged occasion. A 30-year auction lands 7 October |
| DXY · EUR/USD · USD/JPY | 101.4373 · 1.13309 · 157.183 | 101.20 · 1.1300 · 156.00 | 101.70 · 1.1400 · 160 (policy line) | ⭐ The dollar index ties to its own implied prior to three decimals. EUR/USD at its lowest since May 2025, on the day euro-area inflation surprised higher |
| AUD/USD · AUD/NZD | ≈0.6976 · ≈1.2345 | 0.6963 (day low band) · 1.2250 (V023 closes) | 0.7000 · 1.2450 | ⚠⚠ The carried 0.7018 was the 28 September close — the 29th was ≈0.6987, so yesterday's "flat" was measured off the wrong day. A nine-week low; September −2.8%. AUD/NZD's mark is contested across 1.2345–1.2388 |
| Brent (Nov) · WTI | ≈$103.34 · ≈$90.6–91.2 | 100 · 92–95 (V024 re-own) | 105.28 (28 Sep settle) · 96 | ⚠⚠ READ THE CONTRACT: Dec-26 prints ≈$98.08, five dollars light. ⚠⚠ The change base is corrected — the 28 Sep settles were $105.28 / $92.60, not the $107.71 / $96.23 we published. Brent–WTI >$12, widest since early May |
| Gold · Silver | $4,151.40 · $60.27 | 4,110 · 60.00 | 4,200 · 4,300 (V014 stop) · 62.00 | Gold −6% in September and still below the stop at which the long was closed — a sixth consecutive session vindicating that exit. ⚠ A wrap quoting gold +0.75% at $4,211 is the Comex future, not spot |
| Copper (LME) · Iron ore | $14,474.50/t · $96.59/t | 14,400 · 95 | 14,740 · 100 | ⭐ Cash–3M backwardation collapsing: +$125.00 → +$89.50 → +$26.50 across three settles, on an 875t stock draw. Iron ore goes dark with China for ten days |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,789.3 | 8,709.3 · 8,600 | 8,900 (V006 closes) · 9,005.9 (entry) | +0.92% on real estate +3.7% — the rate-sensitive complex the underweight is short. September −3.2%. ⛔ The A-VIX line is formally dropped after six failures |
| Nikkei · TAIEX · KOSPI | ≈66,318.81 · 48,163.78 · 6,838.04 | 65,481 · 47,632 · 6,800 | 66,343 · 48,601.53 (record) · 6,900 | Taiwan is 438 points from its record while Korea falls for a third session on ~₩9tn of foreign selling — a decoupling inside one theme, into Micron's read-through today |
| IG / HY / CCC OAS | 84 / 308 / 1,157bp (29 Sep) | CCC 1,050 (closes) | CCC 1,150 — CROSSED | The first condition has fired. IG moved 1bp against +4bp the day before; the trigger says flat, and 1bp is inside the series' own display rounding. Not confirmed — tonight decides |
| VIX · MOVE · SKEW | 16.04 · 106.61 · 146.3 | 15.50 · 100 · 140 | 16.43 · 110 · 150 | ⭐ The 29 Sep VIX gap closes at 16.04; day 121 of contango. ⚠⚠ MOVE is 106.61, not the 101.82 carried — that was Monday's. ⚠ SKEW could not be refreshed and is carried |
Data notes & sources
How this edition was built
Six research desks ran in parallel from 06:10 AEST; the verification pass and the US-close block were done last, per the standing Tuesday-to-Friday rule. That rule again predicted the shape of the morning. At filing, roughly thirty-five minutes after the bell, no US cash index had posted a 30 September close on any route — the Composite ETF was still stamped the 29th, the Russell and Composite quote pages still served the 29th's levels, and the AP tabulation for the 30th had not been indexed. What the rule also predicted correctly is that yesterday's session would settle overnight, and it did: the official Treasury par curve for 29 September posted, the VIX series posted 29 September, and AP's 29 September tabulation resolved. The 30 September US equity figures in this edition are therefore derived — settled ETF percentage change applied to a verified prior close — with the ETF stamp given in each row, and the three instruments for which no settled ETF exists are withheld rather than guessed. Twenty-two index closes were reconstructed level-minus-change against a verified prior and published only where the chain tied.
Corrections — nineteen, seven material
(1) MATERIAL: "net dealer gamma negative on all four sources" does not reproduce, and a leg of the equity view is withdrawn. Exactly one dated source shows negative net GEX, roughly −$10.0bn at the 29 September close, with one narrative corroboration. Three sources dated 30 September show it positive, between +$3.1bn and +$45.4bn, with spot near the flip. The call wall at ~7,700 against a put wall at ~7,650 does reproduce on two sources. The pin is real; the short-gamma claim is not, and V028 no longer rests on it.
(2) MATERIAL: the buyback blackout figure is unsourceable and is probably inverted. It is formally withdrawn, discharging a two-edition action item. The only dated origin is a 31 August chart showing the open buyback window falling from ~60% of index weight in mid-August to ~35% by late September. The "61% in blackout" carried in this note appears to be that ~60% open share read backwards. "No reopening until 1 November" is a house inference: the same author describes windows reopening a day or two after each company's Q3 earnings, which begin on a rolling basis from mid-October. The "no corporate bid" argument is removed, not resized.
(3) MATERIAL: the crude change base is resolved against this desk. The 28 September settles were Brent November $105.28 and WTI $92.60, not the $107.71 / $96.23 published; every vendor differences off the former and no source supports the latter. Tuesday's Brent move was −2.6% to a $102.59 settle, not the −4.65% printed. The carried Nov–Dec spread of "above $7" is also wrong — it was $6.43 at the 29 September settle and has narrowed further.
(4) MATERIAL: all four major Australian banks have confirmed the full 25bp pass-through, effective 9 October — not "exactly one lender and none of the big four", on which yesterday's edition built a structural argument. The argument is restated in §04 and §07: the household channel tightens on a date, not invisibly.
(5) MATERIAL: the carried ACGB priors were wrong. 29 September was 2y 4.97, 3y 4.95, 10y 5.37, not 5.06 / 5.02 / 5.43. On the corrected basis the 3-year premium over cash is +33bp and roughly 1.3 further hikes, against the +42bp and 1.7 hikes published.
(6) MATERIAL: the French PLF 2027 Conseil des ministres is Thursday 1 October — today — corroborated three ways. Yesterday's edition moved it to 30 September; the day before, to 1 October. The date has now moved twice and returned to where it started, and the practical consequence is that the "same-day collision" with the AFT long-dated OAT auction is back on.
(7) MATERIAL: MOVE is 106.61 at 29 September, not 101.82 — that was Monday 28 September's close, itself the first above 100 since spring after a +35% September. The "tops 59 of the previous 60 readings" claim could not be verified, and the source describing 106.61 as a record is ranking against its own series rather than the ICE BofA MOVE index; "record MOVE" is not written in this edition.
(8) The FX sign disagreement is 2 of 7 CME majors — AUD and GBP only — not "four of eight"; EUR, JPY, CAD, CHF and MXN all agree in sign, and the dollar index cannot be a disagreement because it is an ICE contract with no leveraged-fund series. (9) The 29 September S&P close is 7,670.84 (AP), not the 7,671.01 published — which does not change V028's confirm. (10) The 29 September Dow is 51,349.92 and the Nasdaq Composite 26,797.54, against derived ≈51,364 and ≈26,796. (11) The carried AUD/USD prior of 0.7018 was the 28 September close; the 29th was ≈0.6987, so yesterday's "flat" was measured off the wrong session. (12) The carried FTSE 100 prior of 10,623 fails; 29 September was ≈10,636.71. (13) The carried KOSDAQ prior of 843.87 fails its chain. (14) There WAS a 29 September iron ore print, at $96.73 — the "streak stands at fifteen" was wrong. (15) RBA November pricing of "~43%" is unsupported by any source; pre-CPI reads were 35–40%. (16) BofA's year-end target is datelined 19 September, not 14 September. (17) Australian August household spending resolves to unchanged, settling a two-edition dispute. (18) The BoJ Summary of Opinions for the September meeting is dated 10 November, not today. (19) The leveraged-fund Treasury total: five CBOT contracts rebuild to 6,122,144; the carried 6,517,822 implies ~395,678 in the ultra-10-year, which was not reproduced this run and is carried rather than verified.
Conflicts and how they were resolved
The 30 September US equity figures resolve to the settled-ETF derivation — SPY, DIA and QQQ all stamped "At close: Sep 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT" — over a 15:59 ET wrap showing S&P −0.04%, Nasdaq −0.37% and Dow −0.70%, which conflicts with QQQ's settled +0.25% and is a late-session snapshot rather than a close. IWM was rejected outright: it is stamped "3:52 PM EDT — Market open", an intraday capture. The Hang Seng was resolved by arithmetic against its own vendor, whose level field of 24,438 contradicts its own +89.70 change; the change ties to the prior and the level does not. The Nikkei resolves to 66,318.81 on an exact chain tie, over a rival at 66,342.71 and a third at 67,062 that fails the chain outright. Gold resolves to spot $4,151.40 on a 16:03 ET near-close print; a wrap quoting +0.75% at $4,211 is the Comex future and the two are not interchangeable. The Australian CPI consensus resolves at 4.0% headline — in line, not the 4.1% miss circulating — with m/m 0.4% original against a 0.5% forecast, the competing 0.2% being the trimmed-mean figure and the 0.7% being the seasonally adjusted series. Left open: ECB October pricing (~29% to ~70% across sources); the AUD/NZD mark (1.2345–1.2388); the ASX sector count (all eleven higher, or ten with IT down 0.4%); the AUD intraday low (0.6963–0.6976); the euro-area flash HICP date; the TOPIX close across three candidates; and the Italian and Spanish CPI-versus-HICP labelling.
Rejected outright
A wire story carrying the correct Stoxx 600 close and percentage under a 12 August dateline — the figures were right and the article was seven weeks old, which is the most dangerous form of this trap. A 67,062 Nikkei print that fails its chain. A vendor's Hang Seng level field that contradicts its own change. An intraday ETF capture presented alongside settled ones. A 15:59 ET wrap's index set. A calendar vendor's entire actual and consensus columns, for a second consecutive edition — its first numeric column is the prior and its second the consensus. A central-bank tracker's RBA page, now on the discard list, which served a pre-decision state hours after the decision with a site-wide modification stamp six months old. An oil-chart page serving ~$43 crude. A crypto aggregator's 24-hour percentages, the two reference pages being ~13 hours apart. A sell-side target list datelined 10 December 2025 surfacing on a current query. Vendor change columns, tenth consecutive edition, including a won change whose sign contradicts its own level and a Trading Economics Italian prior that does not tie.
Not published
The 30 September Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 and VIX closes (no settle on any route). The 30 September Treasury par row. A settled Fed Rate Monitor read, for a THIRD consecutive session — checked twice, both returning the same 13:55 ET intraday stamp. The 30 September gilt curve, a fifth logged occasion. Hang Seng Tech, a third consecutive edition. The CSI 300. Jakarta. ECB October pricing as a single figure. RBNZ October pricing. ASX 200 volume, turnover and the A-VIX — the A-VIX line is now formally dropped after six failures rather than carried as a standing gap. Any dated SPI quote, a fourth edition. A refreshed CBOE SKEW, VIX9D, VIX1D or put/call. The 30 September LME copper settle. Uranium for the 30th. ETH ETF flows for 29 September (contested between +$17.09m and −$2.81m). Micron's verified after-hours reaction. US closing sector performance and breadth. Japanese single-stock and sector relative value, a nineteenth consecutive edition. Lipper weekly flows, formally dropped.
Traps caught
A seven-week-old wire story carrying today's correct figures — caught only by asking the fetch for the article's own dateline, which is now the standing rule for undated slugs and evidently needs to apply to dated market copy too. The contract-month trap on Brent, live and confirmed for a second edition. A level field contradicting its own change on the Hang Seng, resolved by arithmetic. An intraday ETF capture sitting beside settled ones in the same fetch minute. Our own carried priors, again — five of them this run (ACGB, AUD/USD, FTSE 100, KOSDAQ, crude), which is the second consecutive edition in which the desk's own inputs were a larger source of error than its sources. A vendor calling a weak-yuan fix "stronger" while its own numbers say otherwise — take the numbers, reject the prose. A route declared dead that was merely intermittent, which cost a markable view an edition. The Comex-future-versus-spot conflation on gold. And Maysan (Iraq) and Mayun (Yemen) held apart for an eleventh consecutive edition, with the caveat that the Maysan attribution itself could not be re-confirmed this run and is carried.
Tomorrow's first verification targets
The 30 September IG/HY/CCC observation — the highest-value datapoint of the week, because CCC has already crossed 1,150 and the entire V017 question is whether IG stops widening. Then: AP's 30 September tabulation at its dated URL, which will confirm or correct every derived US figure in §03; the official 30 September par curve, which settles whether the 30-year's ~5.63% is a closing high or an intraday one; the 30 September Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 and VIX; a settled Fed Rate Monitor read, unseen for three sessions; ECB October pricing from a source that can be corroborated; a refreshed CBOE SKEW, which is load-bearing for a hedge recommendation and is carried; the 30 September OAT–Bund print and the French budget's actual contents; the euro-area flash HICP and its true release date; the Tankan and the Japanese exchange's own 30 September Nikkei row; Hang Seng Tech on any route; and the Cotality September HVI against the primary, where the published Sydney figure is suspiciously identical to August's.
United States, Fed & positioning
- BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
- US Treasury — daily par yield curve, September 2026
- SPY · DIA · QQQ · ONEQ · IWM
- Investing.com — S&P 500 history · Nasdaq Composite · Russell 2000 · VIX history
- AP — how major US stock indexes fared, 29 September
- Investing.com — Fed Rate Monitor · Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar
- Micron — FQ4 and FY2026 results
- Radiocor — Chicago PMI 58.8 · LSE — Chicago PMI
- CFTC — Traders in Financial Futures · legacy CME · COMEX · NYMEX · ICE
- Citadel Securities — September Setup (the buyback-window chart)
- AAII — sentiment survey · ICI — combined flows · ICI — money market assets
- FactSet — Earnings Insight, 25 September
- Wall Street Numbers — S&P moving averages · History of Market — breadth · TheTrading.tools — Hindenburg conditions · VIX term structure
- Advisor Perspectives — Yardeni cuts to 7,900 · Yahoo — BofA 12-month target
Rates, FX & central banks
- Idéal Investisseur — OAT–Bund spread series
- BoJ — meeting schedule · BoE — MPC dates · Riksbank — September Monetary Policy Report · Central bank meeting calendar
- RBA — coming up · Finder — RBA cash rate and lender pass-through
- Econostream — ECB speak and tone meter · FXStreet — De Marco backs an October hike
- FXStreet — German flash CPI 3.3% · Reuters via Euronext — euro-zone inflation
- Trading Economics — Bund · OAT · JGB · ACGB · DXY
- Boursorama — the OAT's largest quarterly rise since 1987
- Tradingpedia — PBoC fix, 30 September
Australia, New Zealand & Asia
- ABS — CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August · ABS media releases
- Westpac IQ — August CPI · investingLive — trimmed mean below forecast · Babypips — November pricing after the CPI
- ABC — markets live, 30 September · Sharetrader — ASX close and sectors
- Cotality HVI, September (secondary) · Reuters via Business Recorder — AUD at a nine-week low
- Nikkei — official index archive · News on Japan — the ex-dividend effect · investingLive — Japanese industrial production and retail sales · JPX — trading calendar
- investingLive — China official PMIs · Newsquawk — NBS manufacturing PMI · Trading Economics — Hang Seng
- Seoul Economic Daily — KOSPI · Trading Economics — TAIEX · Focus Taiwan — TAIEX open · HDFC Sky — Sensex and Nifty close
- Trading Economics — NZX 50 · Asian market holidays, October
Europe & geopolitics
- MarketScreener — Stoxx 600 · Reuters via Irish Times — first monthly loss in six
- dpa-AFX via ARIVA — DAX close · Boursorama — CAC below 8,000 · Yahoo UK — FTSE 100 close · finanzen.ch — SMI close · ANSA — FTSE MIB close · IBEX 35 close
- PLF 2027 — the stated targets · La Gazette — €54bn of consolidation
- Windward — Hormuz transits (all vessels) · TankerMap — Hormuz (tankers only) · CBS — US–Iran talks
- ForexFactory — economic calendar
Commodities, credit & digital assets
- FRED — IG OAS · HY OAS · CCC OAS
- Rigzone — the 29 September oil settles · Rigzone — Brent–WTI widest since May · Investing.com — Brent (contract label) · Buckhead — WTI
- OilPrice — EIA weekly · World Oil — the 40m bbl SPR exchange · EnergyConnects — OPEC+ · Rigzone — the pipeline at half capacity
- Kitco — gold spot · Westmetall — LME copper official settlements · Trading Economics — iron ore · Voltstack — EU gas storage
- CoinGecko · CoinDesk · Farside — BTC ETF flows · Coinalyze — derivatives