Global Macro Daily

The bottom line

Six things a PM needs before the open, in order of P&L relevance.

Payrolls closed the door on a data-driven hold. August NFP +162k against ~55k consensus, unemployment steady at 4.1%, net revisions +55k, AHE +3.1% y/y. Fed-funds futures now price a 58% probability of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, with the modal December outcome two hikes. The Committee is in blackout; Friday's August CPI (consensus +0.4% m/m headline, +0.2% core) is the single print that decides it. The Street is split — Citi has pushed its first cut to June 2027, Macquarie and Nationwide call hikes, Fundstrat says a soft core takes hike odds "to zero." Treat every asset this week as a CPI option.
The weekend Gulf escalation is unpriced but not unexpected. The IRGC fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships on Saturday; CENTCOM destroyed three Iranian tankers, one at Kharg anchorage. Tehran says it will declare a "restricted zone" outside Hormuz within days. Brent opened ~$96.5 (+0.2%) — no gap, because this is month seven of the war, Hormuz has been running at 5–7 mb/d against ~20 pre-war, and OPEC+ (now seven producers after the UAE's exit) has conceded it has "very limited power over the physical market." The tail is infrastructure strikes and mines, not another tanker. Diesel is the tightest barrel on earth (US retail a record $5.85, 3-2-1 crack >$70).
Germany had a political earthquake on Sunday. The AfD is projected at ~44.5% in Saxony-Anhalt — an outright Landtag majority and the first far-right state government since 1945; the CDU halved. Bund and DAX opens and Merz's coalition arithmetic are Europe's Monday story. The ECB hikes Thursday regardless (+25bp to 2.50%, 65 of 65 economists); the market wants ~2.7% by December and Lagarde will not give it a path. Note that BTPs now trade through OATs.
Australia sits on the hiking side of the ledger. Q2 GDP +0.4% q/q (+2.1% y/y) beat, trimmed mean is stuck at 3.6%, and Bullock has said the Board will hike "if that is what is required." Markets price 58–66% for 29 September and a full move by November; NAB calls September. ACGB 10y at 5.19% is a 2011 high, AUD/USD 0.72 a four-month high, and the ASX 200 fell 0.95% last week with materials −5%. Hunter (13:20) and Hauser (evening) speak Tuesday, bracketing the Westpac and NAB surveys — the first RBA words since the GDP print.
Positioning is the asymmetry, and it is one-sided. Leveraged funds are short 2.06m 10-year contracts and net short S&P (−318k) and Russell futures; BofA's FMS positioning sits at the 99th percentile with 3.5% cash and a Bull & Bear "sell" at 9.5; SPX 1-month skew and VVIX are at the 1st percentile; the buyback blackout starts ~12 September into a record $6.2trn expiry on the 18th. The pain trade is a soft CPI: duration squeeze plus an equity chase into thin hedging. The mirror is a hot CPI: 10y through the 4.81% high toward 5% with nobody protected. Protection is cheap; own it.
Digital assets: constructive flows, hostile macro. BTC $80.2k after rejecting $82.5k Thursday; spot ETFs took $987m last week and $3.8bn over three weeks (the best run of 2026); Strategy is buying again. The CLARITY Act cloture vote is 15 September and needs seven Democrats — prediction markets ~15%. BTC is trading as a high-beta rates asset; the FOMC on the 16th matters more than any crypto-native catalyst.

Overnight & weekend recap

Friday's US session, the week that was, and what moved while Sydney slept.

Friday 4 September — the jobs report

The BLS printed +162k nonfarm payrolls (private +127k) against ~55k consensus; unemployment 4.1% (unchanged), participation back up to 61.6%, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, hours 34.4. June and July were revised up a combined +55k (July from −23k to +21k). Gains were led by food services (+59k), local-government education (+42k), construction (+22k) and manufacturing (+16k); information shed 23k. The year-to-date pace is still only ~60k a month, but the print removed the "labour market is cracking" cover the doves needed after Waller's Thursday speech ("I will support a hold if there is continued progress toward 2%").

The reaction was orderly but decisive: the 2-year rose 4bp to 4.37%, a 52-week high; 10s +2bp to 4.78% (intraday 4.81% earlier in the week was the highest since October 2023); 30s held at 5.25%, a post-2007 high. DXY closed 99.17 (+0.2%) but still lost ~0.7% on the week. Gold fell 1.2% to $4,419; bitcoin gave back the $82k breakout. Cleveland's Hammack said it is "time to act." September hike odds went roughly 50% → 65% → 58% by the close. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,718.60 but eked out +0.1% on the week (ATH 7,816.70 in August); only Tech (+0.4%, on a chip bid: Micron +6.1%, AMD +4.7%, Intel +4.5%), Industrials and Utilities rose. Single-stock damage was idiosyncratic and heavy: Tesla −5.9% (Cybercab reviews), Apple −2.5% (foldable-iPhone production issues), Lululemon −18% (guide cut), FICO −12% (FHFA ends the mortgage-score monopoly), Broadcom −4–5% Thursday on a Q4 guide of $34.8bn vs $35.05bn despite AI revenue +221%. Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.9bn.

Other US data last week leaned hot: ISM manufacturing 54.6 with prices paid 71.1; ISM services 55.4 with prices paid 72.6, the highest since August 2022; JOLTS openings 7.3m; claims 206k; the Beige Book found activity up modestly in 10 of 12 districts with energy, Iran and tariffs the recurring price complaints. Politically, the House passed a clean CR to 11 December (370–48) so the 30 September shutdown cliff is largely defused; Trump's Friday post — "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT" — and the White House's August notice to Governor Cook keep Fed independence live as a term-premium input.

Europe and Asia into the weekend

Europe closed a soft week: Stoxx 600 −0.8%, Euro Stoxx 50 −1.4%, with the DAX at 26,054 (record 26,618 in late August). VW +6.6% on "Future Plan 2030" (50k more job cuts, 9% margin target); Rheinmetall −3.5% on Putin's softer tone; Vivendi −6.7%. Euro-area August flash HICP re-accelerated to 3.3% (core 2.4%, energy +14.3%). Bunds 3.34%, OAT 4.21% (highest since November 2008), BTP 4.14% — Italy trades ~6bp through France. Gilts 5.13% (30y 5.78%).

Asia was mixed. The Nikkei snapped a four-day slide (+1.26%, SoftBank +10–12%) but lost 2.1% on the week as the JGB 10-year touched 3.00% on 1 September, the first time since 1996, before settling at 2.91%; the yen posted its best week in a month (USD/JPY 156.19, a test of 155.21) with the MoF "on alert" and Bessent having met Ueda to urge "decisive" action. Hong Kong rallied 1.7% on tech; mainland drifted (Shanghai −0.6% w/w, ChiNext −4.0%). The PBoC fixed the yuan ~640–690 pips weak of estimates — the strongest lean against appreciation since February — with CNH at its strongest since January 2023. Korea's August exports rose 68.7% y/y with chips +209% to a record $46.7bn; the Jan–Aug total already exceeds 2025's full-year record. The ASX 200 fell 0.16% Friday and 0.95% on the week as hot GDP revived RBA-hike fears; Corporate Travel collapsed 85% on Thursday when it resumed trading after a year-long audit suspension.

Weekend 5–6 September

Gulf. Saturday: IRGC ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships enforcing the blockade; CENTCOM struck three Iranian tankers, one at Kharg anchorage ("shoot at two of ours, we take out three of yours"). Iran promised a "faster, heavier, more painful" response and a "restricted zone" outside Hormuz starting at the US blockade line; Energy Secretary Wright said there "may not be a nuclear deal" and any agreement "may await the next administration in Iran"; VP Vance ruled out talks until ship attacks stop; Netanyahu called toppling the regime Israel's "central mission." Iranian crude loadings are ~260kb/d against 1.7mb/d pre-war; the rial is 2.2m/$ with inflation ~70%. Kpler counted four commodity vessels transiting Hormuz on Thursday against a 10-day average of ~15. OPEC+ (seven producers) met virtually Sunday and held October output at September levels; the 2023 cuts are fully unwound and the group has moved to 2027 baseline talks.

Russia–Ukraine. Witkoff and Kushner held 3+ hours of "substantive" talks with Putin on Saturday and were in Kyiv Sunday; both sides paused strikes on capitals during the visits, but Russian attacks killed nine elsewhere and Ukraine hit the Ryazan refinery. No terms are public; no ceasefire. Germany. AfD ~44.5% in Saxony-Anhalt (ARD projection). Japan–US. Akazawa, Lutnick and Greer confirmed $550bn-pact tranches ($36bn energy/minerals, $73bn nuclear/gas) and the 15% tariff cap. China injected ~$54bn of capital into state banks and insurers. Canada's C$19.9bn counter-tariffs on 700+ US products take effect Tuesday. Sell-side: Citi pushed its first Fed cut to June 2027; Hartnett ("policy panic is working") says stay long commodities and gold; Citadel Securities (Rubner) says "use strength to reduce exposure and add cheap protection" into mid-October.

Monday indicative opens (M): EUR/USD 1.1613, USD/JPY 155.98, GBP/USD 1.3507, AUD/USD 0.7197, NZD/USD 0.5875, USD/CAD 1.3831; Brent $96.52 (+0.2%); gold $4,425 (Sunday print); SPI futures flat at 9,002. Bathla Group's creditors (~$3.4bn owed) meet in Sydney today with administrators warning site work could stop.

Market dashboard

Friday 4 September closes unless marked; weekly changes where a verified prior close exists.

Week to 4 September — cross-asset change

Percent change on the week to Friday 4 September; FX pairs quoted as the pair moved (USD/JPY −2.4% = yen stronger). Hover a bar for the exact value.

Up on the weekDown on the week

Equities	Close	1d	1w	Note
S&P 500	7,718.60	−0.38%	+0.1%	ATH 7,816.70 (Aug). 50d 7,585 · 200d 7,137
Nasdaq Composite	26,506.99	−0.29%	+0.4%	Semis bid Friday: Micron +6.1%, AMD +4.7%
Dow Jones	53,414.25	−0.51%	−0.3%
Russell 2000	2,975.65	+0.25%	n/a	LF net short −109.5k contracts
VIX / VIX3M	14.53 / 17.61	+1.5%	flat	Ratio 0.825 · Oct future 18.14 · skew 1st pct
Stoxx 600	649.9	+0.1%	−0.8%	Euro Stoxx 50 −1.4% w/w
DAX	26,053.88	+0.04%	neg.	Record 26,618 late Aug · AfD shock pending
FTSE 100	10,831	flat	−0.1%
Nikkei 225	65,020.94	+1.26%	−2.08%	TOPIX 4,103.23 (−1.05% w/w)
Hang Seng	25,650.87	+1.74%	+0.33%	HS Tech +2.27% Fri, −0.77% w/w
CSI 300	4,548.05	−0.10%	−1.33%	Shanghai 3,930.12 (−0.56% w/w) · ChiNext −4.03% w/w
KOSPI	6,687.21	+1.64%	−1.50%	Aug exports +68.7% y/y, chips +209%
TAIEX	46,551.13	+1.51%	+0.47%
Nifty 50	23,897.70	+0.10%	−1.15%
S&P/ASX 200	9,005.9	−0.16%	−0.95%	SPI (M) 9,002 · Materials −5.0% w/w · Tech −5.5% w/w

Rates & credit	Level	1d	1w / context	Note
UST 2y	4.37%	+4bp	52-wk high	Highest since Jan 2025; ~1.5 hikes priced by Dec
UST 10y	4.78%	+2bp	≈ +5bp	Intraday 4.81% mid-week, highest since Oct 2023
UST 30y	5.25%	unch	post-2007 high	Treasury doubles long-end buybacks to ≥$4bn/op from 9 Sep
2s10s	≈ +41bp		slightly flatter	MOVE ~75 (secondary source)
Bund 10y	3.34%	−1bp	m/m +23bp	30y >3.84%, highest since 2011
OAT 10y	4.21%	flat	Nov-2008 high	OAT–Bund ≈ 85–87bp
BTP 10y	4.14%	−3bp	Jun-2024 high	BTP–Bund ≈ 80bp — Italy through France
Gilt 10y / 30y	5.13% / 5.78%	−2bp	m/m +24bp	Burnham government; Budget 28 Oct (single source)
JGB 10y / 30y	2.91% / 3.97%	−6bp / −11bp	10y hit 3.00% (1 Sep)	30y record 4.21% this month; 2y 1.83% (1995 high)
ACGB 3y / 10y	4.76% / 5.19%	+6bp (10y)	m/m +29bp	10y highest since Jul 2011; 5.25% intraday
Canada 10y	3.78%	−2bp	m/m +22bp
US IG OAS	81bp	unch	+2bp	ICE BofA, 3 Sep · IG yields >5.5%, 2-yr high
US HY OAS	265bp	−1bp	+5bp	BB 146 / B 250 at tights; CCC ~850bp (97th pct)

FX	Fri close	1d	Mon open (M)	Week	Note
DXY	99.17	+0.21%	—	≈ −0.7%	Waller knocked it >0.5% Thursday; NFP recovered part
EUR/USD	1.1614	−0.10%	1.1613	n/a	1.17 = 200dma resistance · 1.1563 support
USD/JPY	156.19	+0.26%	155.98	≈ −2.4%	Yen's best week in a month; 155.21 = Aug post-intervention level
GBP/USD	1.3523	−0.02%	1.3507	n/a	Two-week low Thursday
AUD/USD	0.7204	+0.05%	0.7197	≈ −0.7%	Four-month high on RBA repricing; spec short at 97th pct COT
NZD/USD	0.5881	+0.02%	0.5875	≈ +0.5%	AUD/NZD ≈ 1.225
USD/CAD	1.3837	+0.31%	1.3831	≈ −0.9%	Aug jobs −41.7k, UR 6.4%; retaliatory tariffs Tue
USD/CHF	0.8098	+0.28%	0.8095	≈ −0.1%
USD/CNY	6.7078	−0.15%	fix est. 6.7086	m/m −0.6%	Fri fix 6.7787 vs 6.7098 est — PBoC leaning hard against CNY strength
USD/MXN · INR · KRW	16.89 · 94.38 · 1,345.6	−0.2 · −0.1 · −0.8%	—		MXN spec long at an extreme (COT 0%); KRW −5.3% m/m on chip exports

Commodities & digital assets	Last	1d	1w	Note
Brent (front)	$96.28 · (M) $96.52	+0.8%	+7.6%	Steepest weekly gain since mid-July; +46% y/y; ~+60% YTD
WTI (front)	$91.48	+0.2%	+9.9%	XOP highest monthly close since Jun 2015 · spec length only 15th pct
Henry Hub / TTF	$2.98 / €74.93	+2.1% / +4.1%	n/a / >+7%	TTF 4th weekly gain, +127% y/y on Qatar LNG paralysis
Gold (spot)	$4,419 · (Sun) $4,425	−1.2%	≈ −1%	Below 20d 4,497 / 50d 4,493 / 200d 4,541 · ATH ~$5,590–5,608 (Jan)
Silver / Platinum	$65.83 / $1,811	−1.7% / −0.8%	wkly loss	Gold/silver ratio 66.7
Copper (LME 3M)	$14,415.50/t	+0.6%	n/a	Record 25 Aug · Comex 675kt stock · Section 232 pending · +47% YTD
Iron ore (SGX 62%)	$99.57/t	+0.2%	m/m +6%	Highest since June; China July crude steel −3.6% y/y
Aluminium (LME)	$3,303.50/t	+1.5%	≈ +1.9%	LME stocks near 36-yr low; Gulf smelter risk
Lithium carb. / Uranium	CNY152k/t / $89.50	−2.6% / —	+103% y/y / +3.7% m/m
Bitcoin	$80,196	+0.7%	+2.5%	7 Sep ~00:30 UTC · rejected $82.5k Thu · mcap $1.61tn · dominance 57.8%
Ether / Solana	$2,518 / $106.34	+1.4% / +3.0%	+1.8% / +2.6%	ETH keeps rejecting $2,500
XRP / BNB	$1.42 / $752	+0.6% / +2.3%	+2.7% / +8.5%	Total crypto cap $2.79tn

Conventions: 1d = change on Friday's session; 1w = change versus Friday 28 August close where a verified prior exists, otherwise the nearest published measure (m/m, y/y) is shown and labelled. Yields quoted to the nearest basis point; "≈" marks values derived from two sources or a pre-close table. Gold is spot (Comex Dec settled $4,476.60). WTI is the Reuters-cited settle; Trading Economics shows $92.15 on a different roll convention.

What is driving markets

Five themes, each with the mechanism and the trade-relevant consequence.

1. The energy shock has become a monetary shock

Seven months into the US–Iran war, the transmission has moved from headline oil to core policy. Brent is +46% y/y and roughly +60% year-to-date; Hormuz is moving 5–7 mb/d against ~20 mb/d pre-war; diesel, not crude, is the binding constraint (3-2-1 crack >$70 against a <$20 norm, EU diesel +70% since February). That has fed through to prices-paid indices (ISM services 72.6, the highest since August 2022), to PCE (3.7% over 12 months, 4.1% over six) and, crucially, to central-bank reaction functions. Warsh's Jackson Hole framing — 2% is "firm, fixed", the Fed is "committed to a discipline, not to a decision", forward guidance is abandoned, and tight credit spreads are evidence policy "shows few signs of restraint" — was the pivot from looking through a supply shock to defending expectations. The ECB (June hike, another Thursday), BoJ, RBA, RBNZ and BoC have all moved the same way; Norges and Riksbank are leaning hawkish; only the SNB and PBoC are outside the tent.

So whatThe Fed's put has been replaced by a Fed call: good growth data is now bad for duration and equities, which is why an above-consensus payrolls print produced a down day. Until Friday's CPI, own convexity rather than direction. The one asset that is structurally mispriced against the theme is the front end of EM and DM curves where hikes are not yet embedded — Canada (post the −41.7k jobs print) and the UK are the two where the market is most reluctant.

2. The long end is where the stress lives

This is a global term-premium repricing, not a US-only story. UST 30s at 5.25% are a post-2007 high and the Treasury has doubled its long-end liquidity buybacks to a $4bn minimum per operation from Wednesday, with Bessent signalling more if 10s approach 5%. JGB 10s touched 3.00% for the first time since 1996 and 30s printed a 4.21% record this month as FY2027 budget requests hit ¥143.1tn under a Takaichi government with a two-thirds majority and a spending mandate; Reuters is flagging GPIF repatriation risk. OATs are at 2008 highs with Lecornu's minority government facing a pre-announced censure over the 2027 budget; Goldman calls 100bp OAT–Bund a "stress scenario" and Italy already trades through France. Gilts (30y 5.78%) are pricing energy inflation plus fiscal doubt under a new Burnham/Healey government. ACGB 10s at 5.19% are a 2011 high. Hartnett's read — central banks tilting to hikes to defend $4 gasoline / 160 yen / 5% Treasuries, "policy panic is working" — is the consensus explanation; the alternative reading is that hikes into a supply shock raise, not lower, the term premium by pulling growth forward into a fiscal problem.

So whatThis week's 3y/10y/30y auctions (Tue–Thu, ~$58/42/25bn) are the cleanest test of demand at these levels, in a holiday-shortened week with the Fed silent. Buybacks are a floor, not a ceiling. Steepeners (5s30s) carry the fiscal thesis without fighting the Fed; outright long-end shorts fight the Treasury. In Australia the 3s10s curve at ~43bp is steep for a hiking cycle — the RBA path is priced in 3s, the global term premium in 10s.

3. The crowd is long risk, short bonds, and unhedged

The positioning picture is unusually legible. In futures, leveraged funds are short 2.06m 10-year contracts and 1.27m 2-years (the basis trade at full stretch), net short S&P e-minis (−318k) and Russell (−110k), and short yen (−102k, re-extended last week). Managed money is long 228k gold contracts (96th percentile even after a 15k cut), long 130k WTI (only the 15th percentile — oil length is not crowded), and at extremes in MXN longs (COT 0%), AUD shorts (97%) and copper/silver longs. Institutional surveys sit at the other extreme: BofA's August FMS shows cash at 3.5% (sixth-lowest since 1998), equities net 56% overweight (highest since November 2021), "no landing" a record 56%, the Bull & Bear indicator at 9.5 (sell) — and 72% expecting no hike before the midterms, a view the market has already abandoned. Options are the tell: SPX one-month 25-delta skew and VVIX are at the 1st percentile, equity put/call 0.58, the VIX 14.5 against a 17.6 three-month. Citadel's Rubner notes CTAs and vol-control have "rebuilt exposure" and that systematic buying capacity is depleted; the buyback blackout begins ~12 September ($1.1trn of authorisations sidelined) into a record $6.2trn expiry on the 18th, and top-100 pensions at 112% funded will de-risk into quarter-end.

So whatThe pain trade for Friday is a soft core CPI: duration squeeze against a 2m-contract short, yen squeeze against −102k, equity chase into no hedges. The mirror — hot CPI, 10y through 4.81% toward 5%, a September hike — hits a market with skew at the 1st percentile. Both tails argue for the same action: buy the cheap wing (SPX puts / 2y payers or receivers depending on the book) and reduce gross into the 12–18 September window. Direction is a coin flip; convexity is not.

4. AI capex is still the earnings engine — financing is the crack

The earnings side remains extraordinary. Nvidia printed $96.2bn revenue (+106% y/y) with a $108bn guide; Q2 S&P EPS growth ran ~33% with 87% beating; FactSet has Q3 at +28.5% and rising (energy +102%, IT +63%), CY26 at +31.5% and the forward P/E at 19.5, below its five-year average. Korea's chip exports at +209% y/y are the macro echo. The financing side is where the FMS's top tail risk (AI bubble, 32%) and Warsh's credit-restraint comment meet: hyperscaler capex is ~$690bn+ in FY26 and ~$1trn next year on Morgan Stanley's numbers, free cash flow is near zero or negative for all but Alphabet and Microsoft, ~32% of capex is debt-funded, Alphabet raised $84.75bn of equity in June, Oracle was cut to BBB−, and IG issuance is on a $215bn September pace. In private credit, BCRED has gated redemptions at 5% for a second quarter after ~10% sought exit, and BDC software loans have been marked from $96.5bn cost to $92.9bn on "over-levered horizontal software with real AI exposure." Broadcom's −4% on a marginal guide miss shows the bar; Oracle and Adobe on Thursday (AEST Fri ~06:05) are the next test of RPO-versus-financing.

So whatLong the AI earnings, short the AI balance sheet: prefer cash-generative enablers (semis, memory, Korea/Taiwan) over debt-funded builders, and stay away from the CCC/floating-rate end of credit where a hike lands first. Oracle's credit spread on Friday morning Sydney time is a better read on the theme than its share price.

5. Politics is now a first-order market input

Three fronts. Europe: an AfD absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt breaks the post-war "firewall" and halves Merz's CDU in the east; the coalition's fiscal package and pension disputes get harder, not easier, and the Bund's safe-haven premium versus OATs is now itself a political variable. Washington: Trump's Friday threat to stop trading with deficit countries unless the Fed cuts, the White House's notice to Governor Cook, and Vance/Bessent/Navarro piling on put Fed independence back into the term premium two weeks before a possible hike; the generic ballot is D+6.6 and Hartnett puts a Democratic sweep at ~50% on prediction markets ("gridlock is goldilocks", a sweep is >10% downside). Tariffs have migrated from IEEPA (struck down in February, ~$129bn refunds) to Section 232/301/338 authorities; Canada's C$19.9bn retaliation lands Tuesday. Asia: the US–China truce is fraying (12.5% tariff, six US firms banned, drone export controls) with a Xi visit around 24 September reported but unconfirmed; Japan's supermajority is spending; Israel votes 27 October.

So whatPolitical risk is cheap to hedge in Europe (OAT–Bund wideners, DAX puts) and expensive to ignore in the dollar: the independence narrative is the one channel through which a hawkish Fed can be dollar-negative. Watch the Bund open at 16:00 AEST — a bid for Bunds with a wider OAT spread is the orderly outcome; a Bund sell-off is the disorderly one.

Central bank watch

Where each bank stands, what is priced, and the next date that can move it.

Fed funds pricing — implied probabilities by meeting

Target range outcomes implied by futures, 5 Sep 2026 00:35 ET (Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor). Current range 3.50–3.75%.

3.50–3.75% (hold)3.75–4.00% (+25bp)4.00–4.25% (+50bp)4.25–4.50% (+75bp)

Bank	Policy rate	Last move / vote	Next decision (AEST)	Market pricing	Bias
Fed	3.50–3.75%	Held 29 Jul, 9–3 (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan for +25)	Wed 16 Sep · 04:00 Thu AEST · SEP + dots	58% hike Sep; Dec modal +50bp (41% one hike / 36% two / 8% three)	Hawkish
ECB	DFR 2.25%	+25bp 11 Jun (first in 3 yrs); held 23 Jul unanimous	Thu 10 Sep · 22:15 AEST · presser 22:45	+25bp to 2.50% fully priced (65/65 economists); ~2.7% Dec; 3.0% mid-2027	Hiking, not guiding
BoJ	1.00%	+25bp Jun (31-yr high); Ueda 2 Sep: "hope to continue raising"	Fri 18 Sep · ~13:00 AEST	Sep hike 63–75%; Oct fully priced; 1.50% year-end	Hawkish
BoE	3.75%	Held Jul, 6–3 (Greene, Mann, Pill for 4.00%)	Thu 17 Sep · 21:00 AEST	~15% Sep; >70% Nov; one hike fully priced by year-end	Hawkish hold
RBA	4.35%	Held 11 Aug unanimous after Feb/Mar/May hikes; "ready to increase further"	Tue 29 Sep · 14:30 AEST	58–66% Sep; Nov fully priced; peak ~4.8% mid-2027	Hawkish hold
RBNZ	2.75%	+25bp 2 Sep (2nd straight); "gradually removing stimulus"	Wed 28 Oct	~31% Oct; 3.0% by Mar-27; peak 3.2–4.0%	Hiking, gradual
BoC	2.25%	Held 2 Sep (7th straight); Macklem "prepared to raise"	Wed 28 Oct	+25bp by Dec (pre-jobs); Aug jobs −41.7k complicates	Hawkish hold
SNB	0.00%	Held 18 Jun; Aug CPI 0.8% (2-yr high)	Thu 24 Sep	First hike ~Jun-27	On hold
PBoC	1y LPR 3.00% / 7d RR 1.40%	15th month unchanged; "appropriately loose"; $54bn bank capital (weekend)	LPR Mon 21 Sep	Unchanged; CNY fix leaning against strength	Easing bias
Norges / Riksbank	4.25% / 1.75%	Both held Aug; "may still be necessary to raise" / hike "later this year" possible	Thu 24 Sep (both)	Hawkish hold	Hawkish hold
Emerging markets
Brazil (BCB)	Selic 14.00%	−25bp 5 Aug (easing cycle)	Wed 16 Sep	Focus 2026 IPCA 5.0%; election poll Lula 42 / F. Bolsonaro 41	Easing
Mexico (Banxico)	6.50%	Held 6 Aug	Thu 24 Sep	MXN strongest since May 2024; spec long extreme	Hold
India (RBI)	5.25%	4th hold 5 Aug; "premature to discuss tightening"	Wed 7 Oct	Reserves record $729bn; INR 94.4	Neutral
Korea (BoK)	3.00%	+25bp 27 Aug (2nd straight)	Thu 22 Oct	Jul CPI 2.8%; KRW −5.3% m/m	Hiking
Indonesia (BI)	5.75%	+100bp since May; held 19 Aug; new governor Damayanti (2 Sep)	Wed 23 Sep		Hold
Turkey (CBRT)	37.00%	4th hold Jul	Thu 10 Sep (calendar sources; unconfirmed)	Hold expected	Hold

Fed detail. Chair Kevin Warsh (sworn in 22 May; Powell remains a Governor to January 2028). July's three dissents for a hike are the largest hawkish bloc of the cycle. Waller (3 Sep) laid out the dovish path — hold "if there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal", noting three-month core PCE at 3.05% in July versus 4.76% in February; Hammack (4 Sep) said it is "time to act." Blackout began Saturday. The Supreme Court upheld Governor Cook 5–4 in June; the White House notified her in August that removal is being "considered" (secondary source). The 30 September funding cliff is defused by a CR to 11 December (signature not yet confirmed).

ECB detail. August flash HICP 3.3% (July 2.9%), core 2.4%, energy +14.3%, services 3.0%; Q2 GDP +0.4% q/q. The meeting is hosted by the Bundesbank in Berlin. Watch the staff projections (June had 3.0/2.3/2.0% HICP for 2026–28), any energy scenario analysis, second-round/wage language, and whether Lagarde keeps "the burden of proof is on data" — FXStreet's summary, "hiking, not guiding", is the right prior. Simkus has said "September is not enough."

BoJ detail. Inflation is not the driver — national CPI 1.9%, core 1.8% — the yen and the long end are. Ueda wants hikes "as financial conditions remain accommodative"; Takata floats back-to-back moves; FinMin Katayama is monitoring bonds "with heightened urgency". July wages (consensus +3.9%) and the Q2 GDP revision land Tuesday 09:30–09:50 AEST. JPMorgan's ¥16–17tn short-yen estimate is the number behind its 142–146 unwind scenario.

Regional briefs

United States, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan, China and emerging Asia.

United States

Growth is fine, inflation is not. Payrolls +162k, ISM services 55.4, Q3 EPS growth tracking +28.5%; against that, ISM prices paid at 4-year highs, PCE 3.7%, CPI 3.4% and a Fed that has told you it will not pre-commit. The tape has flipped to "good news is bad news." The 2-year at 4.37% already embeds roughly 1.5 hikes by December; the 10-year at 4.78% is 3bp from the cycle high. Auctions Tue–Thu, buybacks from Wed, CPI Fri. Corporate: Apple's event Wednesday (03:00 AEST Thu) with incoming CEO Ternus; Oracle/Adobe Thursday after the close; IG issuance restarts Tuesday on a record September pace. Politics: CR to 11 Dec passed; Trump–Fed rhetoric escalating; midterms 3 Nov with the generic ballot D+6.6.

Euro area

Hike into a political shock. Thursday's +25bp is fully priced; the question is the path (market: ~2.7% Dec, 3.0% mid-2027). Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt result puts the AfD on course for the first far-right state government since the war and halves the CDU; Merz's fiscal package now runs through a weaker chancellor. France: Lecornu's minority government presents the 2027 budget ~30 Sep with LFI's censure pre-announced; Fitch A+/stable (28 Aug) bought time, Moody's Aa3 negative did not. OAT–Bund 85–87bp; BTP–Bund ~80bp. German factory orders +2.5% (vs +0.3%) and Monday's IP (16:00 AEST) are the growth reads. Equities: Stoxx 600 −0.8% w/w; autos bid (VW +6.6%), defence sold on Putin's tone.

United Kingdom

New government, old problem. PM Andy Burnham (since ~20 July) and Chancellor John Healey inherit gilts at 5.13%/5.78% (10y/30y) with CPI 2.9% and services 3.4%; the Budget is reported for 28 October (single source). Burnham has pledged to keep the fiscal rules; the market is pricing the risk he cannot. The BoE held 6–3 in July with Pill arguing a hike now avoids more later ("if you wait-and-see and then do not see, all you have done is waited"); a hike is fully priced by year-end. July GDP Friday 16:00 AEST (cons −0.2% m/m). Bailey called populism a global threat; USTR Greer said the UK "is choosing the EU over the US."

Japan

Normalisation meets fiscal expansion. PM Takaichi's LDP holds 316/465 seats after February's landslide; FY2027 budget requests are a record ¥143.1tn with ~¥40tn of new bonds targeted and debt service of ¥36.6tn at an assumed 3.8%. The BoJ (1.00%) is near-fully priced for 18 September; the 10-year touched 3.00% on 1 September and 30s printed 4.21% this month, though the 30-year auction on 3 September "passed smoothly." The yen had its best week in a month (155.98 open) with Bessent having pressed Ueda for "decisive" action and the MoF "on alert" — May's intervention was a record ¥11.7tn. Nikkei 65,021 (−2.1% w/w); SoftBank +10–12% Friday; banks and trading houses sold. Tuesday: Q2 GDP second estimate (cons +0.4% q/q) and July wages (cons +3.9%) at 09:30–09:50 AEST. The US–Japan $550bn pact tranches and 15% tariff cap were reaffirmed at the weekend.

China & Hong Kong

Data week, strong yuan, weak steel. Trade Tuesday ~13:00 AEST (July exports +23.9% y/y, surplus $112.5bn; August consensus $108–120bn), CPI/PPI Wednesday 11:30 AEST (July 0.5%/3.5%; cons 0.9%/3.6%), credit data Thu–Sat (new loans ~RMB500bn). The PBoC fixed 640–690 pips weak of estimates on Friday — the hardest lean against CNY strength since February — with CNH at its strongest since January 2023; ~$54bn of state-bank capital was injected at the weekend. LPR unchanged for 15 months at 3.00%; new-home prices −3.2% y/y (37th decline); July crude steel 76.9mt, the weakest July since 2017, which caps iron ore near $100 even as Simandou lags and Vale cuts guidance. Equities: ChiNext −4.0% w/w, Shanghai −0.6%, HSI +1.7% Friday on tech; SHEIN −8.7% in its third HK session. US–China: 12.5% tariff since late July, six US firms banned, drone export controls; a Xi visit ~24 Sep is reported (single source); soybean purchases into the Sep–Oct harvest are the near-term test; AI talks tentatively mid-September.

Emerging Asia & LatAm

Korea is the AI-export superpower: August exports +68.7% y/y ($98.3bn), chips +209% to a record $46.7bn; KOSPI 6,687 (−1.5% w/w after a run); BoK hiking (3.00%). Risk: renewed US plans for targeted chip tariffs. Taiwan: TAIEX 46,551 (+0.5% w/w), July exports +32.9%; August CPI Tue, trade Wed. India: Nifty −1.2% w/w with volatility blamed partly on the new closing-auction mechanism; USD/INR 94.4; RBI on hold at 5.25% (next 7 Oct); US tariff status post-July unverified. Indonesia: JCI ~+2.7% w/w; new BI governor Damayanti. Brazil: Selic 14.00% easing, Copom 16 Sep, IPCA Friday (cons 4.2%), election polls tied. Mexico: peso strongest since May 2024 with spec longs at an extreme; CPI Wednesday.

Australia & New Zealand

The home market in depth: RBA, data, ASX, the currency and the China link.

RBA: a hawkish hold with a live September

Cash rate 4.35% after three 2026 hikes (Feb, Mar, May) and unanimous holds in June and August. The August statement did the work: headline inflation "still too high", trimmed mean "elevated", oil "adding directly to inflation", the Board "ready to increase the cash rate further if upside risks materialise", midpoint of the band not before late 2027. Bullock in the presser: "The Board will raise interest rates further if that is what is required." Since then: Q2 GDP beat (+0.4% q/q, +2.1% y/y vs 0.3%/1.8%; consumption +0.4%, dwellings +1.6%, productivity flat, unit labour costs hot), July CPI 3.5% headline (from 3.8%) but trimmed mean 3.6% unchanged with electricity +6.1% y/y as rebates roll off and fuel +7.5% m/m on the partial excise unwind, and July unemployment up to 4.5% with employment −16k. Pricing: 58% (swaps) to 66% (IG) to 70% (ABC) for 29 September; November fully priced to 4.60%; peak ~4.8% mid-2027. Bank calls: NAB September, ANZ and CBA November, Westpac hold through 2026. New MPB member Melinda Cilento replaced Ian Harper from 1 September.

This week is the RBA's first word since GDP: Assistant Governor Hunter at the AFR Property Summit (Tue 13:20 AEST) and Deputy Governor Hauser on ABC 7.30 (Tue evening), with the Westpac consumer sentiment (Tue 10:30; Aug 88.9, expected low-to-mid 80s) and NAB business survey (Tue 11:30; July confidence −6) in between. Bullock testifies to the House on 18 September. August CPI is 30 September, the day after the meeting; August labour force is 24 September.

Markets: rates at 2011 highs, AUD at 4-month highs, ASX heavy

Rates. ACGB 3y 4.76%, 10y 5.19% (5.25% intraday, highest since July 2011, +29bp m/m). The 3s10s curve at ~43bp is steep for a hiking cycle — the RBA path sits in 3s, the global term premium in 10s. AUD. 0.7204 close, 0.7197 open — a four-month high on RBA repricing and a softer dollar post-Waller, capped by payrolls. Speculative shorts are at the 97th percentile of the COT index, the raw material for a squeeze on any dovish-Fed / hawkish-RBA divergence; AUD/JPY 112.5 (−1.7% w/w) is the pair to avoid if the BoJ delivers; AUD/NZD ~1.225 after the RBNZ's gradualist hike. Equities. ASX 200 9,005.9 (−0.16% Fri, −0.95% w/w), SPI flat at 9,002. Materials −5.0% and Tech −5.5% on the week; BHP −6.4% w/w; energy sold Friday (Ampol −5.5%) despite Brent — refining margins are the tell. Weekly leaders Graincorp +12.7% (crop upgrade), Austal +7.1%, Pexa +6.4%; laggards Pinnacle −19.4% (KPMG sign-off delay on three Metrics Credit Partners funds — a private-credit read-across), Silex −16%, Lovisa −13.7%; Corporate Travel −85.5% on resumption (mkt cap $2.35bn → $340m). ASX VIX 10.6 is complacent against the event calendar. September seasonality: −0.65% average since 2001, positive only 44% of the time. Property. Cotality August: national −0.9%, fifth straight fall, −3.6% from the March peak (Sydney −1.4%); rents +5.9% y/y — the household channel is now working against the RBA's demand story and for its inflation story. Bathla Group's ~$3.4bn creditors meeting today is the construction-sector stress marker.

The China and commodity link

Iron ore $99.57/t (SGX 62%), the highest since June and +6% m/m, but the demand side is soft: China's July crude steel 76.9mt was the weakest July since 2017, the steel PMI has been contractionary since April and port stocks are elevated. Supply is the support — Vale cut 2026 guidance to 335–345mt and Simandou remains sub-capacity — which is why Westpac has Q3 averaging $100 and Q4 $97 before sliding toward $83 by end-2027. Tuesday's China trade data (imports of iron ore ~111mt in August on estimates) and Wednesday's PPI are the reads. Copper at $14,416/t (+47% YTD) is a tariff trade more than a China trade — the Section 232 refined-cathode decision is the event. Lithium carbonate +103% y/y (CNY152k/t) as Bald Hill/Finniss restart against storage demand; uranium $89.50/lb. Energy: Australia is a net beneficiary of the Hormuz LNG shock (JKM ~$19, 75% above pre-conflict) — the gas exporters are the domestic hedge against the war.

New Zealand

The RBNZ hiked 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September (second straight) but framed it as "gradually removing monetary stimulus" — projected OCR 2.8% Dec-26, 3.0% Mar-27, 3.2% Dec-27 — and NZD sold on the gradualism (0.5875 open). Q2 CPI 4.1% (core ex-fuel 2.9%). October is ~31% priced, December largely priced; next MPS 28 October. AUD/NZD spiked 1.25% on the day to 1.2278 and has held ~1.225: the RBA/RBNZ divergence is the cleanest expression of the "Australia is behind the curve" thesis.

Australia — key data trail	Latest	Prior	Next release (AEST)
Cash rate	4.35%	4.10% (May)	Tue 29 Sep 14:30 · Nov 3 (fully priced)
GDP q/q · y/y (Q2)	+0.4% · +2.1%	Q1 revised · 1.8% exp.	Q3: early Dec
Monthly CPI headline · trimmed mean (Jul)	3.5% · 3.6%	3.8% · 3.6%	Aug: Wed 30 Sep 11:30
Unemployment · employment (Jul)	4.5% · −16k	4.4%	Aug: Thu 24 Sep 11:30
Cotality home values (Aug)	−0.9% m/m (5th fall)	−3.6% from Mar peak	Sep: 1 Oct
Westpac consumer sentiment	88.9 (Aug)		Tue 8 Sep 10:30 (exp. ~85.7)
NAB business confidence	−6 (Jul)		Tue 8 Sep 11:30 (exp. ~−8)
Iron ore (SGX 62%)	$99.57/t	+6% m/m	China trade Tue ~13:00 · CPI/PPI Wed 11:30
Federal budget 2026–27	Deficit $31.5bn (1.0% GDP)	Gross debt $1,051bn	CGT discount to 30% from 1 Jul 2027; Div 296 recast (secondary source)

House views & tactical framework

Analytical bias by asset, the reasoning, and the specific observation that would change it. Horizon is tactical unless stated.

Asset	Bias	Conv.	Horizon	Rationale	What changes the view
Rates
US front end (2y)	Neutral	Low	1–2 wk	4.37% embeds ~1.5 hikes by Dec; Sep is a 58/42 coin flip decided by one print. No edge before CPI.	Core CPI ≤0.2% → receive; ≥0.4% → 2y 4.50%+. ISM prices paid argue upside risk to headline.
US 10y	Tactical long into CPI (small)	Med	1–2 wk	LF short 2.06m contracts; 4.81% double-top; buybacks doubled from Wed; consensus core 0.2% sets a low bar for a squeeze.	Headline ≥0.5% m/m; tailed 10y/30y auctions; close above 4.85%.
US curve (5s30s)	Steepener	Med	1–3 mo	Term-premium repricing is global and fiscal; buybacks are a floor not a ceiling; supply Wed/Thu; Fed-independence noise lifts the long end.	A hike that crushes breakevens (bear flattener) or a credible fiscal pivot.
ACGB 3s10s	Flattener	Low	1–2 mo	43bp is steep for a hiking cycle; RBA path in 3s, global term premium in 10s; a September hike flattens.	Dovish Hunter/Hauser Tuesday; Westpac sentiment collapse.
Equities
S&P 500	Neutral, hedged; cut beta 12–18 Sep	Med	2–4 wk	Earnings strong (Q3 +28.5%) so not short; but seasonality (Sep −1.1% avg), blackout ~12 Sep, record $6.2trn opex 18 Sep, skew 1st pct = protection is cheap.	Clean break of 7,817 with breadth confirmation; soft CPI + Fed hold.
ASX 200	Underweight tactically	Med	2–4 wk	RBA hike risk, Sep seasonality (−0.65% avg), materials weakness, iron ore capped ~$100, property −3.6% from peak. Prefer LNG exporters and insurers; avoid REITs/discretionary.	China stimulus or steel upturn; RBA dovish surprise; hot AUD unwinds.
Japan	Long banks vs exporters	Med	1–2 mo	BoJ 18 Sep, JGB 10y ~3%, yen strength hurts exporters; banks are the rate beneficiaries; Nomura flags persistent risk aversion despite record profits.	BoJ skip; hot US CPI reviving the carry bid.
China / HK	Neutral; H over A	Low	2–4 wk	Data-heavy week; policy put ($54bn capital); HK tech rebound; ChiNext −4% w/w shows A-share froth deflating; strong CNY favours H-shares.	Trade data miss; renewed US chip-tariff plans.
FX
AUD/USD	Bias higher (0.7250–0.73)	Med	2–4 wk	RBA hawkish vs Fed coin flip; spec short 97th pct COT; four-month high; China trade Tuesday.	Risk-off / oil demand destruction; RBA dovish; China data miss.
USD/JPY	Short	Med	1–2 mo	BoJ hike near-priced, MoF alert 155–160, Bessent pressure, LF short yen −102k is fuel; JPM unwind scenario 142–146.	Hot US CPI + Fed hike; BoJ skip; MoF silence above 158.
EUR/USD	Neutral 1.1563–1.1700	Low	2 wk	ECB hike priced; AfD/French fiscal caps the euro; 1.17 = 200dma.	Lagarde guides to 3%; Bund–OAT blow-out.
USD (DXY)	Neutral; two-way	Low	2–4 wk	Hawkish Fed is dollar-positive unless the independence channel dominates; −0.7% w/w despite hike repricing says the latter is live.	Cook removal; tariff-for-cuts follow-through.
Commodities
Brent	Bullish skew — own calls, not futures	Med	1–2 mo	Hormuz 5–7 mb/d vs 20; OPEC+ powerless; spec length only 15th pct; diesel cracks >$70; weekend escalation.	Oman transit maps / ceasefire; SPR action; demand destruction (Bernstein: China luxury fading).
Gold	Neutral near term; buy $4,300–4,350	Med	1–3 mo	Below 20/50/200dma; hike optionality is the headwind; CB buying and debasement narrative (Hartnett) the floor; Jefferies YE $4,500–4,650.	Soft CPI → fade hike → reclaim $4,500; hot CPI → $4,300 test.
Copper	Neutral; policy-driven	Low	1–3 mo	Section 232 decision is the event; Comex 675kt stock; China rod rates <60% = price rationing demand; DRC/Chile supply tight.	232 announcement either way.
Iron ore	Fade above $100	Low	1–3 mo	Weakest July steel since 2017; contractionary steel PMI; elevated port stocks; Westpac Q4 $97.	Property stimulus; Simandou delays; Vale guidance cut deepens.
Credit & digital assets
US credit	UW HY/CCC; prefer 3–5y IG	Med	1–3 mo	HY 265bp with a live hike; CCC ~850bp is where stress lives; private credit gates (BCRED); $215bn Sep IG supply; UBS cut HY.	Fed hold + soft CPI compresses; spreads >300bp would be a buy.
Bitcoin	Range $78–83k; buy $76–78k, don't chase	Low	2–4 wk	ETF inflows $3.8bn/3 wks, Strategy buying; but trading as high-beta rates asset; funding neutral (4.4% ann.); CLARITY cloture 15 Sep is binary.	Volume break of $83k → $86k; FOMC hike → $74k; cloture fails → sentiment hit.
Ether / alts	Neutral; ETH capped $2,500	Low	2–4 wk	ETH ETF flows slowed ($215m vs $816m); BNB +8.5% w/w the outlier; SOL ETFs trickle.	ETH reclaims $2,500 on volume; SEC Reg Crypto Assets finalisation timeline.

Portfolio-level read. The book that fits this tape is low gross, long convexity, long energy optionality, short the yen carry, and neutral-to-long duration in the belly funded from the long end. Two things are cheap relative to the risk they cover: equity skew and OAT–Bund wideners. Two things are expensive: unhedged AI beta and CCC credit. The event path is asymmetric in time — the next four sessions are dominated by auctions and the ECB; Friday's CPI then sets up an 11-session sequence (CLARITY cloture, FOMC, BoE, BoJ, opex, RBA) that will resolve most of the questions in this note.

These are analytical framings for a professional reader, expressed in the vernacular of a macro desk; they are not personalised investment advice and carry no position sizing. The "what changes the view" column is the accountability mechanism — each view is logged and scored in the project's views ledger.

Positioning, flows & sentiment

Who owns what, who is buying, and how crowded it is.

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Read
CFTC positioning — data as of Tue 1 Sep, released Fri 4 Sep
S&P e-mini — leveraged funds net	−317.6k	Both sides added ~15–17k	Asset managers +934k; legacy non-commercial −75.9k (from −68k)
Nasdaq-100 mini — LF net	−14.1k	Shorts cut 23.6k	Largest covering in the set
Russell 2000 — LF net	−109.5k	Shorts +13.8k	Most stretched equity short
UST 10y — LF net	−2.063m	Modest covering (−12k shorts)	2y −1.268m; ultra-10 −423k; bond −303k — basis trade at full stretch
JPY — LF net	−102.2k	Shorts +17.1k	Re-extended into the BoJ; non-commercial −92.2k (30th pct)
AUD · GBP · CAD · MXN (non-comm.)	−39.4k · −49.6k · −108.1k · +93.2k	COT idx 97% · 8% · 25% · 0%	AUD short and MXN long at extremes
Gold — managed money net	+228.1k	−15.2k (largest cut since Feb)	Still 96th pct; 149.7k L / 13.0k S
WTI — non-commercial net	+129.9k	+6.5k	Only 15th pct despite +10% week — not crowded
Copper · Silver · Bitcoin	+80.9k · +26.7k · +703	COT idx 6% · 0% · —	Metals longs stretched; BTC futures negligible
Flows
BofA Flow Show (EPFR, w/e 2 Sep)	Cash +$30.0bn · Bonds +$18.3bn · Gold +$3.2bn · Equities +$2.8bn · Crypto +$0.5bn	Equity inflow smallest in 9 wks	US equities −$5.9bn (2nd wk); EM −$5.4bn; China −$5.3bn (5th wk); Japan +$1.4bn; IG +$9.2bn (22nd wk); loans −$0.6bn (first outflow in 13 wks); tech −$1.5bn
ICI money-market assets	$7.979trn	+$44.8bn w/w	Institutional $4.865trn; retail $3.114trn — cash keeps growing at 3.6% SOFR
Spot BTC ETFs (Farside)	+$986.7m (w/e 4 Sep)	3-wk run $3.8bn	Thu +$731m best since 14 Jan; Fri only IBIT/FBTC; AUM ~$103bn; August +$3.5bn best since Oct 2025
Spot ETH / SOL ETFs	+$215m / +$11m	ETH from +$816m prior wk	Cumulative ETH $13.19bn
Sentiment & surveys
BofA FMS (Aug)	Cash 3.5% · equities net +56% OW	Highest equity OW since Nov 2021	Most crowded: long semis 53%; tail risks: AI bubble 32%, disorderly yields 27%, second inflation wave 25%; "no landing" 56% (record); 72% expect no hike pre-midterms; gold most undervalued since Mar 2023
BofA Bull & Bear	9.5	Highest since 2021	"Sell" since 26 May; positioning 99th pct, flows 93rd, HF exposure 83rd
AAII (w/e 3 Sep)	Bulls 39.7% · Bears 37.6%	Spread +2.2 vs +6.5 avg	Bears above average 30 straight weeks — retail is not the marginal buyer
Options / vol	P/C equity 0.58 · VIX 14.53 · VIX3M 17.61	Skew, VVIX 1st pct	Sep VIX future 16.27, Oct 18.14; 5-day P/C 0.82 "one of lowest in years"
Fear & Greed (replica)	46 Neutral	50 a week ago, 72 a month ago	Price strength 24, breadth 30 — momentum has cooled under the index
Breadth / technicals	RSI 55.7; MACD rolled over	Russell 3000 % above 50d lowest since early Apr	7 of 11 sectors down on week; zero 80% down-volume days in ~1 yr; RSP +16.5% YTD
Systematic / corporate	CTAs "rebuilt", not stretched	Leveraged-ETF AUM −$70bn (−31%) from June peak	Blackout ~12 Sep; $9.6trn options expire through 18 Sep incl. record $6.2trn; pensions 112% funded
Valuation & earnings (FactSet, 4 Sep)
S&P 500 forward P/E	19.5×	5-yr 19.8 · 10-yr 19.0	Bottom-up target 9,240 (+19%)
Q3 EPS growth estimate	+28.5%	from +26.6% on 30 Jun	Second straight quarter of rising estimates; energy +102.5%, IT +62.6%; financials +3.6%; guidance 70 positive / 41 negative
CY26 / CY27 EPS growth	+31.5% / +15.0%		Q2: 87% beat EPS, 77% beat revenue

The week ahead

7–11 September 2026, then the eleven sessions that follow. Times in AEST (UTC+10) with US Eastern (EDT) alongside.

Day	AEST	EDT	Event	Cons.	Prior	Imp.
Monday 7 September — US Labor Day (cash closed) · Canada closed · Fed blackout
Mon	11:30	Sun 21:30	AU ANZ-Indeed job ads (Aug)			L
Mon	day	—	China FX reserves (Aug) · Bathla Group creditors meeting (Sydney) · Bund/DAX open after Saxony-Anhalt (16:00 AEST)			M
Mon	16:00	02:00	Germany industrial production (Jul) m/m	+0.3%	+0.2%	M
Mon	18:30 / 19:00	04:30 / 05:00	EZ Sentix (Sep) · EZ Q2 GDP final & employment		+0.4% q/q	L
Tuesday 8 September — Canada's C$19.9bn counter-tariffs take effect · US IG issuance reopens
Tue	09:30 / 09:50	Mon 19:30 / 19:50	Japan labour cash earnings (Jul) · Q2 GDP second estimate q/q · current account (Jul)	+3.9% · +0.4%	+3.4% · +0.3%	M
Tue	10:30	Mon 20:30	AU Westpac-MI consumer sentiment (Sep)	~85.7	88.9	M
Tue	11:30	Mon 21:30	AU NAB business survey (Aug) — confidence / conditions · building approvals final	~−8	−6	M
Tue	~13:00	Mon 23:00	China trade (Aug) — surplus; exports / imports y/y	$108–120bn	$112.5bn; +23.9% / +27.7%	H
Tue	13:20	Mon 23:20	RBA Hunter (Assistant Governor, Economic) — AFR Property Summit fireside			H
Tue	evening	~05:30	RBA Hauser (Deputy Governor) — ABC 7.30			M
Tue	20:00	06:00	US NFIB small business (Aug)	99.3	99.8	L
Tue	01:00 Wed	11:00	NY Fed consumer inflation expectations (Aug), 1-yr		3.6%	M
Tue	03:00 Wed	13:00	UST 3-year auction (~$58bn)		4.291%	M
Tue	05:00 Wed	15:00	US consumer credit (Jul) · Korea Q2 GDP revision · Taiwan CPI (Aug)			L
Wednesday 9 September
Wed	11:30	Tue 21:30	China CPI / PPI (Aug) y/y	0.9% / 3.6%	0.5% / 3.5%	H
Wed	day	—	Taiwan trade (Aug) · Poland NBP decision · Japan Eco Watchers (unconfirmed)		TW surplus $17.2bn	L
Wed	22:00	08:00	Mexico CPI (Aug) y/y · core	3.3% · 3.9%	3.12% · 3.95%	M
Wed	01:00 Thu	11:00	US Treasury long-end buyback announcement (doubled to ≥$4bn per op, 9 Sep–4 Nov)			M
Wed	03:00 Thu	13:00	UST 10-year reopening (~$42bn) · Apple event "Surprise and shine" (Ternus; iPhone 18 Pro, foldable)		4.683%	H
Thursday 10 September — ECB day
Thu	16:00	02:00	Germany final CPI (Aug) y/y · Norway CPI-ATE y/y	2.9% · 3.1%	2.8% · 2.7%	M
Thu	21:00	07:00	Turkey CBRT decision (date per calendar sources; unconfirmed)	37.0%	37.0%	L
Thu	22:15	08:15	ECB decision — deposit rate (Berlin; staff projections)	2.50%	2.25%	H
Thu	22:30	08:30	US PPI (Aug) m/m · core m/m · initial claims	+0.3% · +0.3% · 205k	0.0% · +0.2% · 206k	H
Thu	22:45	08:45	Lagarde press conference			H
Thu	00:00 Fri	10:00	US wholesale inventories (Jul) · existing home sales (per two calendars)	3.98m	4.06m	L
Thu	03:00 Fri	13:00	UST 30-year reopening (~$25bn)		5.216%	H
Thu	~06:05 Fri	~16:05	Oracle FQ1 (EPS $1.74 / rev $19.1bn; RPO $638bn) · Adobe FQ3 (EPS ~$6.08) · Copart			M
Friday 11 September — US CPI day
Fri	16:00	02:00	UK GDP (Jul) m/m · 3m/3m · IP · construction · trade	−0.2% · 0.0%	+0.3% · +0.4%	H
Fri	20:30 / 22:00	06:30 / 08:00	Russia CBR decision · Brazil IPCA (Aug) y/y	— · 4.2%	— · 4.44%	M
Fri	22:30	08:30	US CPI (Aug) — headline m/m · y/y · core m/m · core y/y	+0.4% · 3.4% · +0.2% · 2.4%	+0.1% · 3.4% · +0.2% · 2.5%	H
Fri	00:00 Sat	10:00	UMich sentiment prelim (Sep) · 1-yr inflation expectations · Kroger earnings	51.0	51.7 · 4.0%	M
Sat	17:30	03:30	Lagarde speaks · China credit data (Thu–Sat window; new loans ~RMB500bn)			L
The eleven sessions after CPI — the decision cluster
Tue 15	04:15 Wed	14:15	Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act (needs 60) · UK labour data · German ZEW · NL Prinsjesdag			H
Wed 16	04:00 Thu	14:00	FOMC decision + SEP/dots (Warsh presser 14:30 EDT) · US retail sales (Aug) 08:30 · Brazil Copom · UK CPI (Aug)	58% hike	3.50–3.75%	H
Thu 17	21:00	07:00	BoE decision (hold expected; hike fully priced by year-end) · Fed blackout ends	3.75%	3.75%	H
Fri 18	~13:00 · 09:30	Thu 23:00	BoJ decision (+25bp priced 63–75%) · RBA Bullock House testimony 09:30 AEST · US quad witching — record $6.2trn expiry	1.25%	1.00%	H
21–24			China LPR (Mon 21) · BI (Wed 23) · SNB, Riksbank, Norges, Banxico (Thu 24) · AU Aug labour force (Thu 24) · reported Xi visit to Washington ~24 Sep (unconfirmed)			M
28–30	14:30 Tue		RBA decision Tue 29 Sep (58–66% hike) · AU Aug CPI Wed 30 Sep · France 2027 budget presentation (~30 Sep, single source) · US FY-end (CR to 11 Dec passed House)	4.60%?	4.35%	H

Consensus figures are drawn from Trading Economics, ForexFactory, Newsquawk and Kiplinger calendars as of 4–6 September and can shift; where calendars disagree the range is shown. AEST = EDT + 14h until Sydney DST begins on 4 October (then +15h).

Risk radar

Ranked by expected P&L relevance over the next four weeks; probabilities are market-implied or bank-attributed where they exist, otherwise left blank rather than invented.

#	Risk	Trigger / timing	Probability	Market impact if realised	Cheapest hedge / expression
1	Fed hikes 16 Sep	Hot CPI Fri 11 Sep (core ≥0.3%)	58% (futures); Kalshi 50%, Polymarket 53%	2y 4.50%+, bear flattener, USD +, gold/BTC −, S&P −2–4%, HY wider	SPX puts (skew 1st pct); 2y payers
2	Soft CPI squeeze	Core ≤0.2% and headline ≤0.3%	— (consensus core 0.2%)	10y −15–25bp vs 2.06m LF short; yen and AUD squeeze; equity melt-up into blackout	Long belly; short USD/JPY; upside call spreads
3	Hormuz infrastructure escalation	Strikes on Kharg/Gulf export terminals; mining of the Strait; Iranian "restricted zone" enforcement	—	Brent $110+; diesel-led inflation; global hike repricing; EM importers (India, Turkey) hit	Brent call spreads; long energy equities/LNG exporters; short INR
4	Global long-end disorder	10y >5%, 30y >5.5%; JGB 30y >4.2%; tailed auctions Tue–Thu	LPL: 5% = "tipping point"	Equity multiple compression (LPL: SPX–yield correlation negative above 4.3%); MOVE spike; gilt/OAT contagion	5s30s steepeners; low duration; long vol
5	European political shock	AfD majority in Saxony-Anhalt; French budget censure (~30 Sep); Moody's/S&P France reviews	GS: 100bp OAT–Bund = stress scenario	OAT–Bund 100bp+, DAX de-rating, euro lower, Bund bid	OAT–Bund wideners; DAX puts
6	AI capex financing crack	Oracle Thu (BBB−); private-credit gating spreads; IG supply indigestion	FMS: top tail risk (32%)	Semis/hyperscaler de-rating; BBB/CCC widening; BDC marks	Long enablers vs short debt-funded builders; CDX HY protection
7	Fed-independence escalation	Trump tariff-for-cuts follow-through; Cook removal attempt; Warsh named	—	Term premium up, USD down, gold up — the only route to a hawkish Fed being dollar-negative	Long gold on dips; steepeners
8	September technical air-pocket	Blackout ~12 Sep; $6.2trn opex 18 Sep; pension de-risking into quarter-end	Sep avg −1.1% (since 1928); midterm yrs −1.5%	−3–5% drawdown with low realised vol turning into a vol event	Reduce gross into 12–18 Sep; own convexity
9	BoJ 18 Sep + yen unwind	Hike plus hawkish guidance; MoF action >158	Hike 63–75% priced	USD/JPY toward 150; Nikkei exporters −; carry unwind in EM/crypto; JGB super-long stress	Short USD/JPY; long Japan banks vs exporters
10	US–China truce collapse	Soybean purchase shortfall; chip-tariff plans; export-control tit-for-tat; Xi visit slips	—	KOSPI/TAIEX/semis hit; CNY reversal; AUD lower via China beta	AUD/USD puts; long H vs A
11	Trade retaliation cycle	Canada counter-tariffs Tue 8 Sep; Section 232 copper decision; Section 122 appeal	—	CAD, autos, copper premium dislocations; inflation pass-through	Comex–LME spread; short CAD crosses
12	Midterm sweep	3 Nov; generic ballot D+6.6	Hartnett: sweep ~50% on prediction markets	>10% equity drawdown scenario (BofA); tariff/regulatory reversal; "gridlock = goldilocks" lost	Q4 collars; reduce policy-beneficiary exposure

Key levels

Reference levels the desk is watching; technical inputs from the sources listed, not proprietary.

Instrument	Last	Support	Resistance	Comment
S&P 500	7,718.60	7,621 · 7,585 (50d) · 7,300	7,796 · 7,816.70 (ATH) · 7,900	200d 7,137; RSI 55.7; MACD rolled over
UST 10y	4.78%	4.73 (28 Aug) · 4.60	4.81 (cycle high) · 5.00	LPL: SPX correlation negative above 4.3%
UST 2y	4.37%	4.25	4.50	52-week high; ~1.5 hikes priced by Dec
DXY	99.17	98.5	100.0	−0.7% on the week despite hike repricing
EUR/USD	1.1613	1.1563	1.1650 · 1.1700 (200d)
USD/JPY	155.98	155.21 (Aug low) · 152	158 · 160 (intervention zone)	JPM unwind scenario 142–146
AUD/USD	0.7197	0.7150 · 0.7100	0.7250 · 0.7300	Four-month high; spec short 97th pct
Brent	$96.52	92 · 88	100 · Jul-24 high region	Week +7.6%; ATH $147.50 (Jul 2008)
Gold	$4,425	4,365 (Fri low) · 4,300	4,497 (20d) · 4,541 (200d) · 4,600	ATH ~$5,590–5,608 (Jan)
Bitcoin	$80,196	78,000 · 74,000	82,500 · 83,000 · 86,000	Late-Aug low $63.5k; Oct-25 ATH $126k
ASX 200	9,005.9	9,000 · 8,900	9,092 (28 Aug) · 9,200	SPI 9,002; ASX VIX 10.6
ACGB 10y	5.19%	5.00	5.25 (15-yr high, intraday)	3s10s ~43bp
Iron ore	$99.57	95 · 90	100 · 105	Westpac Q4 $97

Data notes & sources

What was verified, what conflicted, and where every figure came from.

Verification notes

Every figure in this note was retrieved on 7 September 2026 from the sources below; nothing is from memory. Where two sources disagreed the note uses the primary or Reuters-cited value and flags the alternative: WTI $91.48 (Reuters settle) vs $92.15 (Trading Economics, different roll); Brent $96.28 (Reuters) vs $95.63 (Rio Times); gold spot $4,419 vs Comex Dec $4,476.60 — the ABC's $4,428 is a different print time; gold ATH $5,589.38 (Investing News, 28 Jan) vs $5,608.35 (Trading Economics, likely intraday/futures); Fed September hike odds 49–65% across CME/CNN/swaps/Investing.com snapshots — the note uses 58.4% (Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, 5 Sep 00:35 ET); RBA September odds 58% (swaps) to 70% (ABC); OAT–Bund 84.7bp (ideal-investisseur) vs ~86.7bp (TE closes); China trade consensus $120.1bn (TE) vs $108.6bn (Newsquawk); DAX close 26,046–26,054 by source. The ABC live blog's Brent print of $92.68 is inconsistent with all other sources and was discarded. Weekly changes for several FX pairs, European and Australian yields, and some commodities could not be computed from verified 28 August closes and are shown as approximate or replaced by the nearest published measure. Single-source items that should be re-verified: UK Budget 28 October; France budget presentation ~30 September; Xi visit ~24 September; CBRT meeting Thursday; Governor Cook removal notice; Australian budget measures (Wikipedia). Saxony-Anhalt figures are ARD projections, not the official count. The search budget for this session was exhausted late in research; the remaining verification was done via direct fetches of primary pages (gov.uk, Trading Economics, Investing.com, ABC).

United States, Fed & positioning

Rates, FX & central banks

Australia, New Zealand & Asia

Europe & geopolitics

Commodities, credit & digital assets

Calendars

BLS — September release schedule · ForexFactory · Trading Economics calendar · Apple events

Global Macro Daily is prepared for a single professional reader as analytical research. It is not personalised financial advice, does not consider any individual's objectives or circumstances, and is not an offer or solicitation. Figures are as verified at the time stamps shown and may have been revised. First edition, 7 September 2026.